People living with chronic conditions such as Down’s syndrome and dementia remain among the most vulnerable to Covid-19 even after vaccination, research has found.The study, based on data from more than 6.9 million vaccinated adults, 5.2 million of whom had received both doses, found that being vaccinated offers powerful protection against hospitalisation for almost all groups. However, a risk calculator based on the data shows that some groups remain at particular risk and may benefit from booster vaccine doses and treatments such as monoclonal antibodies.

People with chronic conditions among most at risk from Covid even after jabs

Doctors are still watching the data to see if there’s a Labor Day weekend bump, but generally speaking they say efforts in Connecticut are working, as the numbers show.However, the Centers for Disease Control is also watching two new variants. googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('ad-681744'); }); For the third time in the last week, the governor’s daily COVID update shows a drop in hospitalizations.

Answer Desk: Should we be concerned about new COVID variants this fall?

Check out this graphic we showed Friday night in the @CNNSitRoom - it’s so disturbing. Three months ago the U.S. was averaging about 200 Covid-19 deaths a day. Now it’s close to 2,000 deaths a day. The Delta variant is so dangerous. Be careful and get vaccinated.

Exhausted healthcare workers admit they feel demoralized as the fourth surge spreads across the US

Doctors treating unvaccinated Covid patients are succumbing to compassion fatigue

A cheap 5-minute test can accurately determine whether you have had covid-19 in the past or determine whether you have protection from a vaccine by detecting antibodies in blood or saliva. When a person is infected with the coronavirus or is vaccinated against it, their immune system produces antibodies to fight the virus. These antibodies continue to be produced for at least six months, so they can be used to detect a past infection or vaccine response. Tests for coronavirus antibodies already exist, but they tend to be expensive, complicated or not very accurate.

Cheap covid-19 antibody test shows if you have immunity in 5 minutes

The COVAX Global Supply Forecast aims to provide an up-to-date overview of the supply of safe and effective vaccines to the COVAX Facility. Our goal is to offer economies participating in COVAX as much clarity as possible on when we expect the doses we have secured to start arriving. To this end, we provide both a global overview as well as specific regional forecasts. The latest edition of this forecast also includes a detailed overview and analysis of changes from the previous edition (July 2021).There are many uncertainties affecting the supply of COVID-19 vaccines in 2021, not least around manufacturing capacity, export restrictions, regulatory approvals, funding availability, and the readiness of countries themselves to begin their national COVID-19 vaccination programmes.In recognition of the fast-changing nature of COVAX’s supply outlook, and of the need to balance uncertainty in global supply with predictability for its participants, COVAX is committed to regularly updating this forecast.

COVAX Global Supply Forecast

Models that make predictions about the COVID-19 pandemic are complicated by the fact that people change their behaviour in response to these predictions. Lucie White discusses how we can deal with this, based on a recent paper with Philippe van Basshuysen, Donal Khosrowi and Mathias Frisch.

How models change the world – and what we should do about it

During the COVID-19 pandemic, people have been exposed to an abundance of information from a large number of sources. Amid all this information, many people have also been exposed to health misinformation: information that is false, inaccurate, or misleading according to the best available evidence at the time. Misinformation has caused confusion and led people to decline COVID-19 vaccines, reject public health measures such as masking and physical distancing, and use unproven treatments. Although health misinformation is not a recent phenomenon, in recent years it has spread at unprecedented speed and scale, especially online. But, together, we have the power to build a healthier information environment where we make more informed decisions about our health and the health of our loved ones and communities. Preventing and addressing health misinformation is a major priority for the Surgeon General. In a new Surgeon General’s Advisory, available below, the Surgeon General is warning the American public about the urgent threat of health misinformation and calling for a whole-of-society approach to address health misinformation during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond.

Health Misinformation Reports and Publications

So that's what I'm doing. Fully vaccinated I contracted Covid a week ago. Not pleasant. Isolating. And listening to the radio, to experts who say we're in 'the endgame', how well we've done, we can get back to normal. Er.. and wear a face mask if you're worried. (20)

And no one is accountable. Politicians say they follow the science. Advisers say Ministers must decide. No public inquiry, no resignations, a merry-go-round of Birthday Honours and George Crosses. Let's all forget about it and 'live with the virus'. Watch the football. (19)

The NHS staff get a pay cut. 1% rise with 2.5% inflation, a pay cut. They must understand there are other priorities. A new SERCO contract. A £250 million royal yacht. (18)

If more porters, nurses, doctors, care workers, bus drivers, factory workers must be infected and die, so be it. Because there is nothing we can do. We must 'live with the virus' and show the world how Britain knows best. (17)

Altruism must die. Because our banker health Minister is devoted to a dead, liberalist philosopher and screenwriter called Ayn Rand who once wrote a diatribe called 'The Virtue of Selfishness'. Do what thou wilt shall be the whole of the law. (16)

In the UK libertarian public health 'living with the virus' means that we must not compromise people's freedom to do what they like. If they prefer to cough and sneeze in a crowded train of commuters who must go to work, so be it. (15)

And no new G7 money is committed to Covax. And the main AZ franchise in India has its exports blocked. So Nepal, Bangladesh and the whole of Africa have virtually no vaccines. Tens of thousands die. Covax grinds to a halt. Cornwall superspreads. (14)

Yes, 95% plus of the money to develop the vaccines came from the public purse. But No we must protect the shareholders of big pharma companies. So a million people must die every month to sustain free markets. New variants must emerge so Big Pharma can make new vaccines. (13)

But the UK government already hosted a G7 meeting in Cornwall at which people hoped they will solve the global vaccine shortage. President Biden says share the patent with all countries so they can make the vaccine. Er... No say the UK, Germany and Canada. (12)

Vaccine escape science is ignored. Long Covid kept quiet. And its fine for 8.8 million children to be infected. Even though every other wealthy country is vaccinating them because benefits clearly outweigh the risks. No, lets give kid's vaccines to Africa say advisers. (11)

July 19 'freedom day' we shall have 50,000 cases per day say the leaders/advisers. But we can now 'live with the virus' because we are all vaccinated. Well, except children. And actually, only about half are fully protected with vaccines. Yes, admissions +deaths will go up. (10)

The third lockdown now ends in a staggered roadmap. Sir Patrick Vallance is alone in saying find, test, trace and isolate is crucial when case rates fall to low levels. In May cases fall to 1800 per day. But no changes r made to an ineffective system. So another wave begins. (9)

The £38 billion spent on consultants, cronys, private test companies, and an array of unapproved tests, is equivalent to ten years of funds for the whole UK public health programme. (8)

The vaccine arrived with a huge wave of nationalistic fervour. We are 'world-beating'. This time, luckily, the NHS stepped in to roll-out the vaccines. But local authorities and public health remained deprived of any financial support while £38 billion went private. (7)

But leaders/advisers stuck throughout to their belief that waves could not be controlled or suppressed. We could only have huge modelled waves and long national lockdowns until we got a vaccine. (6)

They refused to give any financial support to poor people in case "they gamed the system". So poor families had to game the test and trace system so they could keep working. Without 'national lockdowns' the virus just spread. (5)

Then our leaders/advisers set up a privatised, call centre public health system quite unlike anything the many successful Asian and other states did. And separate from our unfunded local public health teams. It couldn't possibly work. It didn't. (4)

We were forced into prolonged national lockdowns. Hugely damaging to livelihoods, the economy and mental health. None of the Asian states had national lockdowns, only local ones. Their economies had ten times less damage. (3)

Our leaders/advisers said you cannot suppress this virus. China and Vietnam did. Then they said these countries will inevitably face a huge second wave. They haven't - just smaller outbreaks that they jump on with good public health implemented by people on the ground. (2)

The story so far. About the failure of public health. Not masks. Look at the death rates in China (pop 1.4bn), Vietnam (100m), USA (340m) and UK (68m). Yes, you cannot see the death curves in the first two because they are so low. (1)

AS THE nights begin to draw in and schoolchildren across the northern hemisphere start trooping back into the classroom, there are three words that ought to be inscribed on every blackboard: ventilation, ventilation, ventilation. “Ventilation is a critically important control measure for covid-19,” says Cath Noakes, an environmental engineer at the University of Leeds, UK, and a member of the UK government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).

Ventilation can make schools and offices safe from covid-19 – but how?

Australian children who test positive for COVID-19 are not being separated from their parents, local police have said, after such a claim was made in a now-viral video.

Fact Check-Video does not show Australian children with COVID-19 being separated from their parents

As Australian health officials encourage eligible high school students to get vaccinated for COVID-19 before upcoming in-person exams, social media users are spreading false claims that their efforts involve forcibly injecting children.

FACT FOCUS: COVID-19 shots not forced on kids in Australia

This report provides an overview of the progress in the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines in adults (aged 18 years and above) across EU/EEA countries. It presents: 1) the number of vaccine doses distributed by manufacturers to each country for the different vaccines products authorised for use in the EU; 2) the uptake of at least one vaccine dose, and of full vaccination (regardless of the dosing schedule) in adults - overall, by age group and by other selected target groups (including healthcare workers [HCWs] and residents in long-term care facilities [LTCFs]). Full vaccination is defined according to the instructions of the manufacturer for each vaccine product. Population denominators for total population and age-specific population are obtained from Eurostat.

Key figures on the vaccine rollout in the EU/EEA as of week 32, 2021 (15 August 2021)

Pollutants in smoke billowing from huge wildfires in the west of America have probably caused an increase in Covid-19 infections and deaths across several US states, new research has found.

Wildfire smoke has caused rise in Covid infections and deaths, study finds

How can research and society better connect to create a more sustainable world? We identify six approaches, show how they profoundly shape what can be achieved, and discuss the potential risks.

Six modes of co-production for sustainability

6/6 Our study provides real-world evidence that heterologous ChAdOx/BNT immunisation with 10-12 week intervals is well-tolerated & elicits comparable immune responses as homologous BNT/BNT vaccination, with evidence of enhanced T cell reactivity.

5/6 These are the first interim results comparing immunogenicity of homologous BNT/BNT vs heterologous ChAdOx/BNT vaccination. Additional analyses on T cell responses and neutralisation are needed and currently ongoing...

4/6 Both homologous and heterologous vaccination elicited robust immune responses. Immunogenicity of heterologous ChAdOx/BNT boost was comparable to 2xBNT, with evidence of slightly increased T cell reactivity following heterologous booster vaccination.

3/6 Both regimens were well-tolerated and safe. Local reactions were frequently reported for all vaccines. Systemic reactions, incl. severe reactions, were most frequent following ChAdOx prime immunisation. Reactogenicity of BNT/BNT & ChAdOx/BNT boosters were comparable.

2/6 We report interim results of a prospective cohort study involving n=340 health care workers, comparing reactogenicity and immunogenicity of homologous BNT/BNT vs heterologous ChAdOx/BNT vaccination, at 3 and 10-12week intervals, respectively.

1/6 Our study comparing reactogenicity & immunogenicity of homologous (2xBNT/Pfizer) vs heterologous (AZ/ChAdOx +BNT) vaccination is available https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.19.21257334v2… Great team effort @vmcorman #FlorianKurth #DavidHillus #TatjanaSchwarz #PinkusToberLau et al. @ChariteBerlin

Objective to assess reactogenicity and immunogenicity of heterologous prime-boost immunisations of ChAdOx1-nCoV19 (Vaxzevria, ChAdOx) followed by BNT162b2 (Comirnaty, BNT) compared to homologous BNT/BNT immunisation.

10.1101/2021.05.19.21257334

Safety, reactogenicity, and immunogenicity of homologous and heterologous prime-boost immunisation with ChAdOx1-nCoV19 and BNT162b2: a prospective cohort study

This is the most important graph of the ‘third wave’. Thanks to @guardian for producing it.

A study looking at the impacts of covid-19 vaccination—condemned by other scientists as seriously flawed and irresponsible—has now sparked a mutiny of sorts. This past week, several well-respected researchers have resigned from their involvement in the journal that published the paper, which argued that vaccines are killing almost as many people as they’re saving from the pandemic. Today, the paper was retracted.

Journal Retracts Terrible Study That Claimed Widespread Covid-19 Vaccine Deaths

https://images.app.goo.gl/taGgu2hEGMEQBzfe7… You know what this yellow vaccination booklet is? It's the other name for #VaccinePassports. There is nothing whatsoever controversial about being able to show the vaccines you've had.

Dose 1 of 2 Progress ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░░░ 68.5% Fully Vaccinated Progress ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░░░░ 57.1% As of Wednesday, 14 Jul 2021. Note: percentages of 16+ population only. Data sources in bio. #CovidVaccine #COVID19 #COVID19Ireland

“The war has changed.” That’s what the leaked C.D.C. document says about the way the Delta variant has upended our coronavirus policies. Delta is astonishingly contagious. It can generate 1,000 times the viral load of the original coronavirus strain, and it spreads with the ease of chickenpox. The vaccinated can no longer assume immunity. The unvaccinated are at more risk than ever. Masks are back. New York City is essentially imposing a vaccine mandate. I have so many questions about the war we’re now in. What do we actually know about Delta? If you’re vaccinated, is it more or less likely to kill you than the flu? Is it more serious for children? Are we re-masking to protect the unvaccinated, or is this also for the vaccinated? What are the risks of long Covid for the vaccinated? I could go on. Luckily, Dr. Céline Gounder has answers. Gounder is an epidemiologist at N.Y.U. medical school, a CNN medical analyst and host of the Covid podcast “Epidemic.” I’m not sure if this conversation will make you feel better about the war we’re now in. But it will, if nothing else, make it much, much clearer.

The Good and Bad News About the Delta Variant

10.15585/mmwr.mm7032e1external icon.

What is already known about this topic? Reinfection with human coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, has been documented. Currently, limited evidence concerning the protection afforded by vaccination against reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 is available. What is added by this report? Among Kentucky residents infected with SARS-CoV-2 in 2020, vaccination status of those reinfected during May–June 2021 was compared with that of residents who were not reinfected. In this case-control study, being unvaccinated was associated with 2.34 times the odds of reinfection compared with being fully vaccinated. What are the implications for public health practice? To reduce their likelihood for future infection, all eligible persons should be offered COVID-19 vaccine, even those with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Reduced Risk of Reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 After COVID-19 Vaccination — Kentucky, May–June 2021

10.1101/2021.06.28.21259420

Background SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) are more transmissible and have the potential for increased disease severity and decreased vaccine effectiveness. We sought to estimate the effectiveness of BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), mRNA-1273 (Moderna), and ChAdOx1 (AstraZeneca) vaccines against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe outcomes (COVID-19 hospitalization or death) caused by the Alpha (B.1.1.7), Beta (B.1.351), Gamma (P.1), and Delta (B.1.617.2) VOCs during December 2020 to May 2021.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against variants of concern in Ontario, Canada

Estimates of the prevalence of self-reported "long COVID" and associated activity limitation, using UK Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey data.

Prevalence of ongoing symptoms following coronavirus (COVID-19) infection in the UK

India lacks an authoritative estimate of the death toll from the COVID-19 pandemic. We report excess mortality estimates from three different data sources from the pandemic’s start through June 2021. First, extrapolation of state-level civil registration from seven states suggests 3.4 million excess deaths. Second, applying international estimates of age-specific infection fatality rates (IFR) to Indian seroprevalence data implies a higher toll of around 4 million. Third, our analysis of the Consumer Pyramid Household Survey, a longitudinal panel of over 800,000 individuals across all states, yields an estimate of 4.9 million excess deaths. Each of these estimates has shortcomings and they also diverge in the pattern of deaths between the two waves of the pandemic. Estimating COVID-deaths with statistical confidence may prove elusive. But all estimates suggest that the death toll from the pandemic is likely to be an order of magnitude greater than the official count of 400,000; they also suggest that the first wave was more lethal than is believed. Understanding and engaging with the data-based estimates is necessary because in this horrific tragedy the counting—and the attendant accountability—will count for now but also the future.

Three New Estimates of India’s All-Cause Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abhishek Anand, Justin Sandefur, Arvind Subramanian write: Confronting the scale of the tragedy will help India draw lessons and etch them deep into the nation’s collective consciousness to foster a ‘never again’ resolve

Why we need to count the Covid dead

10.1136/bmjgh-2020-003699

Public health decision-making requires the balancing of numerous, often conflicting factors. However, participatory, evidence-informed decision-making processes to identify and weigh these factors are often not possible- especially, in the context of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. While evidence-to-decision frameworks are not able or intended to replace stakeholder participation, they can serve as a tool to approach relevancy and comprehensiveness of the criteria considered.

WICID framework version 1.0: criteria and considerations to guide evidence-informed decision-making on non-pharmacological interventions targeting COVID-19

Rest of the world watching closely: ‘In Scotland, estimated that 92.5% of adults would have tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 on a blood test in the week beginning 12 July 2021’- is this enough to dampen transmission & protect under 12s from infection? Under 18s?

Vaccines that are injected into arm muscles aren’t likely to be able to protect our nasal passages from marauding SARS-CoV-2 viruses for very long, even if they are doing a terrific job protecting lungs from the virus. If we want vaccines that protect our upper respiratory tracts, we may need products that are administered in the nose — intranasal vaccines.

A snort or a jab? Scientists debate potential benefits of intranasal Covid-19 vaccines

A business district only serves one use. Add in housing, and it becomes more like a 15-minute city, where work, home, and amenities are all a short walk or bike ride away.

Turning empty office buildings into housing could instantly transform post-COVID cities

10. Gray: 1. #Sisonke data shows there is good durability for the protection that the #JnJ jab provides: - Protection @ hospitalisation (65%) was the same 28 days after vaccination and 120 days after vaccination 2. Sisonke data shows, at this stage, no booster shot is required

9. Gray: Is the #JnJ jab safe? 1. #Sisonke data showed that the #JnJ vaccine is safe to use 2. Two rare blood clot events occurred among trial participants, but both cases have fully recovered 3. Sisonke will continue to monitor participants for 2 more years to assess safety

8. Gray: What about protection @ specifically Delta and Beta? 1. The #JnJ jab provided 67% protection @ hospitalisation as a result of infection with the #Beta variant 2. JnJ vaccine provided 71% of protection @ hospitalisation as a result of infection by the #DeltaVariant

7. Gray: What kind of protection did the #JnJ provide against hospitalisation and death in #Sisonke? 1. The JnJ jab provided 65-66% protection @ hospitalisation 2. The JnJ jab provided 91-95% protection @ death

6. Gray: 1. #Sisonke data shows the #JnJ vaccine provides protection against both the #BetaVariant and #DeltaVariant 2. The JnJ jab provides better protection against Delta than Beta, in other words vaccine efficacy for Delta is higher than for Beta

5. Gray: #Sisonke data shows the #JnJ vaccine provided 91-96.2% protection against death among #HealthWorker trial participants SA

3. Gray: #Sisonke researchers used three sets of data to analyse the study's results: 1. 2 sets of data from medical insurers were used and one set of provincial persal data 2. Today Gray is only reporting on two sets of data

2. Gray: 1. #Sisonke vaccinated 477 234 #HealthWorkers 2. 122 sites were used to vaccinate health workers

4. Gray: 1. #Sisonke ran from 17 February to 17 July (to collect data) 2. Researchers will continue to monitor trial participants for another two years to assess the durability of the protection that the #JnJ vaccine provides

[Thread] 1. Glenda Gray, co-lead investigator, #Sisonke: We now have results to show the #JnJ jab provides significant protection @ the #DeltaVariant in SA. What is Sisonke? The Sisonke study used the #JnJ jab to look @ the effectiveness of the jab among SA #HealthWorkers

Doctors on the industry networking site Doximity are finding their news feed inundated with anti-vaccine comments from fellow physicians. “You rarely get to the level of microchips in vaccines, but a lot of this stuff is pretty close to it,” said Dr. Paul Malarik, a retired psychiatrist who now volunteers with Covid-19 vaccine administration.Doximity held its IPO in June and is now valued at over $10 billion.

The social network for doctors is full of vaccine disinformation

The United States is facing a COVID-19 surge this summer as the more contagious delta variant spreads.More than 615,000 Americans have died from COVID-19 and over 4.2 million people have died worldwide, according to real-time data compiled by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University.

Protests against mandated COVID-19 vaccines pop up across US