Robots to the Rescue: How They Can Help During Coronavirus (and Future Pandemics)

As the number of new coronavirus cases continues to increase worldwide, and more than a dozen states and Puerto Rico are recording their highest averages of new cases since the pandemic began, hospitalizations in at least nine states have been on the rise since Memorial Day.

Coronavirus hospitalizations rise sharply in several states following Memorial Day

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While recent conceptualizations of empathy have highlighted its motivated nature (eg. (Keysers & Gazzola, 2014; Zaki, 2014) little work has yet explored the specific motivations that influence one’s propensity to empathize. Commonly-used self-report metrics of empathy include items that lean heavily, if not entirely, towards ‘virtuous’ motives (e.g. concern, sympathy, caring, helping), and empathy has been explicitly linked to these motivations in many writings. However, the definition of empathy is silent to its virtuosity; and while rarely indexed, several less virtuous motivations for empathy can be readily identified: to influence, to manage, to mediate, to manipulate. Towards a more thorough investigation of the various motives underlying empathy, the present paper introduces the Motivation to Empathize scale, which was specifically designed to parse one’s propensity to consider the feelings of another into both virtuous (e.g. caring/compassionate/loving) and nonvirtuous (e.g. selfish, manipulative, sinister) motives. The paper outlines initial steps taken towards scale development and item reduction, and provides preliminary evidence of scale reliability and construct validity. Specifically, factor analytic techniques separated empathic motivations into two (high-alpha) factors, with all virtuous motives loading on latent factor one, and all nonvirtuous motives loading on latent factor two. Thus, virtuous and nonvirtuous motives to empathize appear to constitute distinct, and statistically separable, measures of the propensity to empathize. Virtuous, but not non-virtuous motives, correlated with the empathic concern subscale of the Interpersonal Reactivity Index (IRI; Davis, 1980), and each motivation type showed distinct relationships with the Compassion and Politeness aspects of Agreeableness (ie. big-five personality traits). In total, these results suggest that both virtuous and nonvirtuous motives may predict the manifestation of empathy, and that future work would do well to consider these varied motivations when considering the nature of the empathic construct.

The Motivation to Empathize Scale - Indexing Virtuous and Nonvirtuous Motives to Empathize

In this paper we report results from an online study conducted in Bosnia and Herzegovina during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic (May 2020). The study examined a range of social and behavioural responses by youth from different ethnic backgrounds and across 63 cities (N = 569). More specifically, the study focused on investigating the relationship between threat perceptions, public health behaviours, stress and social cohesion. As expected, results indicate that higher perceptions of threat were related to higher compliance to safety and health measures despite extremely extremely low levels of political trust. Surprisingly, participants reported relatively low levels of stress despite high social isolation and physical restrictions. These results could partially be explained by an increased level of family interactions. Furthermore, participants reported relatively high levels of social cohesion and common-ingroup identification in a usually segregated and conflict-ridden context.

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Social and behavioural responses during the COVID-19 pandemic in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Social distancing and hygiene practices are key to preventing the spread of Coronavirus. However, people vary in the degree to which they follow these practices. Consistent with previous findings that women adhere more to preventative health practices, in Study 1, women reported engaging in preventative practices regarding COVID-19 (e.g., social distancing, hygiene) more so than men. In Study 2, across three different Northeast U.S. locations, we observed a greater percentage of women wearing masks in public than men. In Study 3, U.S. counties with a greater percentage of women exhibited a higher reduction in movement as tracked by ~17 million GPS smart-phone coordinates. These findings may partly explain the greater infection rates among men and suggest that preventive health messages should be tuned towards men.

10.31234/osf.io/ch4jy

Gender Differences in Preventing the Spread of Coronavirus

10.1103/PhysRevE.101.062305

For many networks, it is useful to think of their nodes as being embedded in a latent space, and such embeddings can affect the probabilities for nodes to be adjacent to each other. In this paper, we extend existing models of synthetic networks to spatial network models by first embedding nodes in Euclidean space and then modifying the models so that progressively longer edges occur with progressively smaller probabilities. We start by extending a geographical fitness model by employing Gaussian-distributed fitnesses, and we then develop spatial versions of preferential attachment and configuration models. We define a notion of “spatial strength centrality” to help characterize how strongly a spatial embedding affects network structure, and we examine spatial strength centrality on a variety of real and synthetic networks.

Spatial strength centrality and the effect of spatial embeddings on network architecture

The 73rd World Health Assembly convened virtually in May, 2020, in a climate of international dissent. Caught in the midst of tensions between the USA and China, WHO has been the target of US President Trump's attacks and of multiple grievances.1The EconomistAmerica and China take their rivalry to the World Health Organization.The Economist. May 17, 2020; Google Scholar,  2Gramer R Lynch C Detsch J Trump cuts US ties with World Health Organization amid pandemic.Foreign Policy. May 29, 2020; Google Scholar In recent years, WHO has often been criticised for what it should have done or did not oversee, and for the political approach3Collins M The WHO and China: dereliction of duty. Council on Foreign Relations, Feb 27, 2020https://www.cfr.org/blog/who-and-china-dereliction-dutyDate accessed: June 3, 2020Google Scholar to the agency's management by its Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31298-8

The WHO we want

The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has resulted in more than 5·7 million confirmed cases and 350 000 deaths globally as of May 28, according to the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center. Despite the vast number of reports on the epidemiology, immunology, radiology, and management of COVID-19, few publications on the disease's pathology have so far been available, and most have been single-case reports or small case series.1Fox SE Akmatbekov A Harbert JL Li G Brown JQ Vander Heide RS Pulmonary and cardiac pathology in COVID-19: the first autopsy series from New Orleans.medRxiv. 2020; (published online April 10.) (preprint).DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.06.20050575Google Scholar,  2Tian S Hu W Niu L Liu H Xu H Xiao SY Pulmonary pathology of early-phase 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pneumonia in two patients with lung cancer.J Thorac Oncol. 2020; 15: 700-704Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (78) Google Scholar,  3Barton LM Duval EJ Stroberg E Ghosh S Mukhopadhyay S COVID-19 autopsies, Oklahoma, USA.Am J Clin Pathol. 2020; 153: 725-733Crossref PubMed Google ScholarInitial reports of the disease focused on older patients with comorbidities; however, we are now witnessing cases in paediatric and young adult populations. The spectrum of clinical manifestations documented in the literature mirrors this expanded view of COVID-19 as well. In addition to pneumonia and respiratory failure, thromboembolic events (sometimes clinically unsuspected at death) are common, according to a 12-case autopsy series from Germany.4Wichmann D Sperhake JP Lutgehelmann M et al.Autopsy findings and venous thromboembolism in patients with COVID-19: a prospective cohort study.Ann Intern Med. 2020; (published online May 6.)DOI:10.7326/M20-2003Crossref PubMed Google Scholar In addition, clinical studies have reported acquired coagulopathy in patients with COVID-19,5Connell NT Battinelli EM Connors JM Coagulopathy of COVID-19 and antiphospholipid antibodies.J Thromb Haemost. 2020; (published online May 7.)DOI:10.1111/jth.14893Crossref Scopus (1) Google Scholar,  6Fogarty H Townsend L Ni Cheallaigh C et al.More on COVID-19 coagulopathy in Caucasian patients.Br J Haematol. 2020; (published online May 12.)DOI:10.1111/bjh.16791Google Scholar,  7Tal S Spectre G Kornowski R Perl L Venous thromboembolism complicated with COVID-19: what do we know so far?.Acta Haematol. 2020; (published online May 12.)DOI:10.1159/000508233Crossref Scopus (0) Google Scholar and a paediatric inflammatory syndrome linked to SARS-CoV-2 can also cause life-threatening cardiac issues.8

10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30449-7

Pathologists in pursuit of the COVID-19 culprit

SAPEA (Science Advice for Policy by European Academies) has launched a new video, in cooperation with the European Commission’s Group of Chief Scientific Advisors.  The video highlights two reports that examine best practices in science advice.  SAPEA conducted a comprehensive evidence review, published as Making Sense of Science for Policy under Conditions of Complexity and Uncertainty.   The SAPEA report informs the Advisors’ recommendations in their Scientific Opinion, Scientific Advice to European Policy in a Complex World.

VIDEO: Making Sense of Science for Policy

The coronavirus public health crisis is also a political-communication and health-communication crisis. In this commentary, we describe the key communication-related phenomena and evidence of concerning effects manifested in the U.S. during the initial response to the pandemic. We outline the conditions of communication about coronavirus that contribute toward deleterious outcomes, including partisan cueing, conflicting science, downplayed threats, emotional arousal, fragmented media, and Trump’s messaging. We suggest these have contributed toward divergent responses by media sources, partisan leaders, and the public alike, leading to different attitudes and beliefs as well as varying protective actions taken by members of the public to reduce their risk. In turn, these divergent communication phenomena will likely amplify geographic variation in and inequities in COVID-19 disease outcomes. We conclude with some suggestions for future research, particularly surrounding communication about health inequity and strategies for reducing partisan divergence in views of public health issues in the future.

The Emergence of COVID-19 in the U.S.: A Public Health and Political Communication Crisis

10.1215/03616878-8641506

Covid-19: Lancet retracts paper that halted hydroxychloroquine trials

The Lancet paper that halted global trials of hydroxychloroquine for Covid-19 because of fears of increased deaths has been retracted after a Guardian investigation found inconsistencies in the data.

June 1, 2020

On this week's podcast: How the coronavirus could transform urban life. The coronavirus has run rampant around the world’s cities, bringing them to a complete standstill. The joys of city life have been upturned as restaurants, theaters, and workplaces have all become potential vectors for transmission of the virus.  This week’s episode looks at how cities could be transformed by the pandemic. Will urban residents flee to the suburbs, or will cities persist as they have through past epidemics? Do the world’s metropolises have a rare opportunity to reinvent themselves for a more equitable, sustainable future? Don’t Touch Your Face hosts Amy Mackinnon and James Palmer are joined by Sara Carr, an assistant professor at Northeastern University’s School of Architecture, and Richard Florida, a professor at the University of Toronto’s School of Cities and Rotman School of Management. 

Don’t Touch Your Face: Our Cities May Never Be the Same Again

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Intervention research is often time- and resource-intensive, with numerous participants involved over extended periods of time. In order to maximize the value of intervention studies, multiple outcome measures are often included, either to ensure a diverse set of outcomes is being assessed or to refine assessments of specific outcomes. Here, we advocate for combining assessments, rather than relying on individual measures assessed separately, to better evaluate the effectiveness of interventions. Specifically, we argue that by pooling information from individual measures into a single outcome, composite scores can provide finer estimates of the underlying theoretical construct of interest, while retaining important properties more sophisticated methods often forego, such as transparency and interpretability. We describe different methods to compute, evaluate, and use composites, depending on the goals, design, and data. To promote usability, we also provide a preregistration template that includes examples in the context of psychological interventions, with supporting R code. Finally, we make a number of recommendations to help ensure that intervention studies are designed in a way that maximizes discoveries. A Shiny app and detailed R code accompany this paper, and are available at: https://osf.io/u96em/.

Assessing Change in Intervention Research: The Benefits of Composite Outcomes

Let’s be blunt. A huge chunk of the UK government’s coronavirus strategy has never seemed to make any sense. There just hasn’t seemed to be a whole lot of logic to it. In many instances contradictions have appeared obvious. And try as we might, there have been some things we’ve never quite been able to rationalise. But here at FT Alphaville we are firm believers in the concept of Chesterton’s fence. This is the principle conjured up by social commentator and philosopher G.K. Chesterton, which says that before critiquing a certain piece of regulation or arguing for its removal, it’s important to understand why the rule was instated in the first place.

Making sense of nonsensical Covid-19 strategy

03 Jun 2020 03:37

The purpose of this article is to develop an epistemology of scientific models in scientific research practices, and to show that disciplinary perspectives have crucial role in such an epistemology. A transcendental (Kantian) approach is taken, aimed at explanations of the kinds of questions relevant to the intended epistemology, such as “How is it possible that models provide knowledge about aspects of reality?” The approach is also pragmatic in the sense that the questions and explanations must be adequate and relevant to concrete scientific practice. First it is explained why the idea of models as representations in terms of similarity or isomorphism between a model and its target is too limited as a basis for this epistemology. An important finding is that the target-phenomenon is usually not something that can be observed in a straightforward manner, but requires both characterization in terms of measurable variables and subsumption under (scientific) concepts.The loss of this basis leads to a number of issues, such as: how can models be interpreted as representations if models also include conceptually meaningful linguistic content; how can researchers identify non-observable real-world target-phenomena that are then represented in the model; how do models enable inferential reasoning in performing epistemic tasks by researchers; and, how to justify scientific models. My proposal is to deal with these issues by analyzing how models are constructed, rather than by looking at ready-made models. Based on this analysis, I claim that the identification of phenomena and the construction of scientific models is guided and also confined by the disciplinary perspective within which researchers in a scientific discipline have learned to work. I propose a Kuhnian framework by which the disciplinary perspective can be systematically articulated. Finally, I argue that harmful forms of subjectivism, due to the loss of the belief that models objectively represent aspects of reality, can be overcome by making the disciplinary perspective(s) in a research project explicit, thereby enabling its critical assessment, for which the proposed Kuhnian framework provides a tool.

The role of disciplinary perspectives in an epistemology of scientific models

In April, blood clots emerged as one of the many mysterious symptoms attributed to Covid-19, a disease that had initially been thought to largely affect the lungs in the form of pneumonia. Quickly after came reports of young people dying due to coronavirus-related strokes. Next it was Covid toes — painful red or purple digits.What do all of these symptoms have in common? An impairment in blood circulation. Add in the fact that 40% of deaths from Covid-19 are related to cardiovascular complications, and the disease starts to look like a vascular infection instead of a purely respiratory one.Months into the pandemic, there is now a growing body of evidence to support the theory that the novel coronavirus can infect blood vessels, which could explain not only the high prevalence of blood clots, strokes, and heart attacks, but also provide an answer for the diverse set of head-to-toe symptoms that have emerged.Every Covid-19 Symptom We Know About Right Now, From Head to ToeThe most perplexing things about a disease that has proved vexing, deadly, and ‘unprecedented in many ways’elemental.medium.com“All these Covid-associated complications were a mystery. We see blood clotting, we see kidney damage, we see inflammation of the heart, we see stroke, we see encephalitis [swelling of the brain],” says William Li, MD, president of the Angiogenesis Foundation. “A whole myriad of seemingly unconnected phenomena that you do not normally see with SARS or H1N1 or, frankly, most infectious diseases.”“If you start to put all of the data together that’s emerging, it turns out that this virus is probably a vasculotropic virus, meaning that it affects the [blood vessels],” says Mandeep Mehra, MD, medical director of the Brigham and Women’s Hospital Heart and Vascular Center.In a paper published in April in the scientific journal The Lancet, Mehra and a team of scientists discovered that the SARS-CoV-2 virus can infect the endothelial cells that line the inside of blood vessels. Endothelial cells protect the cardiovascular system, and they release proteins that influence everything from blood clotting to the immune response. In the paper, the scientists showed damage to endothelial cells in the lungs, heart, kidneys, liver, and intestines in people with Covid-19.“The concept that’s emerging is that this is not a respiratory illness alone, this is a respiratory illness to start with, but it is actually a vascular illness that kills people through its involvement of the vasculature,” says Mehra.

May 29

Coronavirus May Be a Blood Vessel Disease, Which Explains Everything

22 May 2020

Coronavirus: Here’s how germs are spread and where you’re most likely to catch them

A large amount of variation exists in beliefs about the purpose and benefits of preregistration, making it difficult to implement and evaluate, and limiting its usefulness. In this paper, I describe standards for an ideal preregistration. Specifically, preregistration should 1) restrict as many researcher degrees of freedom as possible, 2) detail all aspects of a study’s method and analysis, 3) detail information on decisions made during the planning stages, and 4) specify how the results will be used and interpreted. This careful planning should also be publicly verifiable. I argue that preregistrations which do not address each of these points do more harm than good by falsely signalling credibility and quality, and they risk becoming another ‘ritual’ that psychologists perform. Further, I argue that preregistration is not limited to situations where hypotheses are tested and p-values are reported. Instead, preregistration should be used in any situation where re-searchers intend to collect data in order to make a claim, description, decision, or inference based on that data. In outlining these criteria, I also propose that researchers reconceptualise preregistration and think of it as the methods section of a research report. A preregistration that functions as the methods section of a completed research report should be standardised, comprehensive, and will save time and improve transparency. A working preregistration form is proposed which satisfies all of these requirements (https://osf.io/6qv2b). It is proposed that the preregistration form is used as the methods section of a completed research report, simultaneously enhancing the study planning pro-cess and facilitating the review process.

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Preregistration is for Planning

BackgroundThe impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery needs to be understood to inform clinical decision making during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection.MethodsThis international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and was assessed in all enrolled patients. The main secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications, defined as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation.FindingsThis analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (74·0%) had emergency surgery and 280 (24·8%) had elective surgery. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed preoperatively in 294 (26·1%) patients. 30-day mortality was 23·8% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (51·2%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 38·0% (219 of 577), accounting for 82·6% (219 of 265) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 1·75 [95% CI 1·28–2·40], p<0·0001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (2·30 [1·65–3·22], p<0·0001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3–5 versus grades 1–2 (2·35 [1·57–3·53], p<0·0001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (1·55 [1·01–2·39], p=0·046), emergency versus elective surgery (1·67 [1·06–2·63], p=0·026), and major versus minor surgery (1·52 [1·01–2·31], p=0·047).InterpretationPostoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than during normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older. Consideration should be given for postponing non-urgent procedures and promoting non-operative treatment to delay or avoid the need for surgery.FundingNational Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, NIHR Academy, Sarcoma UK, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research.

10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31182-X

Mortality and pulmonary complications in patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection: an international cohort study

In deciding when to help, individuals reason about whether prosocial acts are impermissible, suberogatory, obligatory, or supererogatory. This research examined judgments and reasoning about prosocial actions at three to five years of age, when explicit moral judgments and reasoning are emerging. Three- to five-year-olds (N = 52) were interviewed about prosocial actions that varied in costs/benefits to agents/recipients, agent-recipient relationship, and recipient goal valence. Children were also interviewed about their own prosocial acts. Adults (N = 56) were interviewed for comparison. Children commonly judged prosocial actions as obligatory. Overall, children were more likely than adults to say that agents should help. Children’s judgments and reasoning reflected concerns with welfare as well as agent and recipient intent. The findings indicate that 3- to 5-year-olds make distinct moral judgments about prosocial actions, and that judgments and reasoning about prosocial acts subsequently undergo major developments.

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Young Children’s Judgments and Reasoning about Prosocial Acts

In The Lancet Public Health, Eloi Marijon and colleagues suggest that out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) might be affected directly and indirectly by the COVID-19 pandemic.1Marijon E Karam N Jost D et al.Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest during the COVID-19 pandemic in Paris, France: a population-based, observational study.Lancet Public Health. 2020; (published online May 27.)https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30117-1Google Scholar The authors used the Paris-Sudden Death Expertise Center registry to compare OHCA case incidence and patient characteristics from a 6-week period during the COVID-19 pandemic in Paris and its suburbs (March 16 to April 26, 2020) with corresponding periods over the preceding 8 years. The rapid publication of this Article shows the value of cardiac arrest registries and other disease registries in highlighting changes in practice and informing policy interventions.During the 6-week pandemic period in Paris, OHCA incidence approximately doubled from a baseline of 13·42 (95% CI 12·77–14·07) to 26·64 (25·72–27·53) per million inhabitants. The incidence of OHCA rose in parallel with the incidence of COVID-19 related hospital admissions. Similar patterns in OHCA incidence have been observed in the Lombardy region of Italy2Baldi E Sechi GM Mare C et al.Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest during the Covid-19 outbreak in Italy.N Engl J Med. 2020; (DOI:NEJMc2010418 published online April 29.)Crossref PubMed Google Scholar and California, USA.3Wong LE Hawkins JE Langness S et al.Where are all the patients? Addressing Covid-19 fear to encourage sick patients to seek emergency care.NEJM Catalyst Innovations in Care Delivery. 2020; 1: 3Google Scholar Importantly, in the study by Marijon and colleagues, OHCA incidence decreased towards baseline near the end of the 6-week period in line with a decrease in COVID-19 incidence.

10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30134-1

COVID-19: long-term effects on the community response to cardiac arrest?

May 27, 2020

Human behavior is one of the most important factors dictating the severity of pandemics for both the spread of the disease and the psychological impacts it triggers, such as anxiety, isolation, and uncertainty. Through an ongoing series of backgrounders, the Association for Psychological Science (APS) is exploring many of the psychological factors that can help the public understand and collectively combat the spread of COVID-19. Each backgrounder features the assessments, research, and recommendations of a renowned subject expert in the field of psychological science. This content has not undergone separate peer review and is provided as a service to the public during this time of pandemic. APS has published additional content on Myths and Misinformation.

APS Backgrounder Series: Psychological Science and COVID-19: Conspiracy Theories

May 20, 2020

Jeremy Farrar explains why humanity may simply have to learn to live with Covid-19, why he wishes there were *more* government advisers in scientific meetings—and why he thinks it is still too early to reopen schools

Sage coronavirus expert: We’ve had an epidemic that to some degree could have been avoided