118 Matching Annotations
  1. Apr 2024
    1. Reference numbers to paragraphs in vol I are distinguishedby a preceding I

      Even in writing his book, which takes the form of a numbered and indexed card index, he's making explicit links to the similar card index which he made in volume 1 of the book. It's as if he's created his own hypertext of linked material between the two volumes.

  2. Feb 2024
    1. Eine neue Studie kommt zu dem Ergebnis, dass ein Umkippen des nordatlantischen Strömungssystems Amoc in einem anderen Zustand schon sehr bald drohen könnte, wenn sich die globale Erhitzung fortsetzt. Die Studie modelliert auch die Folgen, zum Beispiel sehr schnell steigende Wasserstände an der amerikanischen Ostküste, ein Umkippen des Amazonas-Regenwaldes und wesentlich niedrigere Temperaturen in Europa. Der Studienautor stellt fest, dass wir die Erhitzung sehr viel ernster nehmen müssen. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/09/atlantic-ocean-circulation-nearing-devastating-tipping-point-study-finds

      Studie: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189

  3. Jan 2024
    1. Yong, Ed. “The Tipping Point When Minority Views Take Over.” The Atlantic (blog), June 7, 2018. https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/06/the-tipping-point-when-minority-views-take-over/562307/.

      Centola's Experiments Suggest 25% Activists Will Tip a Population

      Relationship with @Schelling1971 work?

      Schelling, Thomas C. “Dynamic Models of Segregation.” The Journal of Mathematical Sociology 1, no. 2 (July 1, 1971): 143–86. https://doi.org/10.1080/0022250X.1971.9989794.

    2. “What I think is happening at the threshold is that there’s a pretty high probability that a noncommitted actor”—a person who can be swayed in any direction—“will encounter a majority of committed minority actors, and flip to join them,” says Pamela Oliver, a sociologist at the University of Wisconsin at Madison. “There is therefore a good probability that enough non-committed actors will all flip at the same time that the whole system will flip.”

      The key here seems to be the noncommitted actors. Who are they? Why are they noncommitted? Are there areas where noncommittment doesn't occur?

    1. We need to trigger exponential change across sectors and geographies by phasing out fossil fuels while taking advantage of positive social and economic tipping points.
      • for: quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - positive tipping points, quote - social tipping points, social tipping points, stop, positive tipping points

      • quote: Johan Rockstrom

        • We need to trigger exponential change across sectors and geographies by phasing out fossil fuels while taking advantage of positive social and economic tipping points.
    2. Im Interview der Repubblica (hier auf Englisch) fordert Johan Rockström eine Konkretisierung der Ergebnisse der COP28 und eine Reform der UN-Klimakonferenzen. Er hebt die Ergebnisse des Global Tipping Points Report hervor und weist darauf hin, dass wir die Konsequenzen der kaum noch zu Überschreitung des 1,5°-Ziels über mehrere Jahrzehnte nicht kennen.

      https://www.greenandblue.it/2023/12/31/news/johan_rockstrom_earth4all_scenarios-421790005/

    1. you don't start a feminist revolution by arguing with your dad. (Marjorie laughs) He might be the one who needs to change, but that doesn't mean that you start there. 00:22:55 You start by talking to each other. We need to come together. We need to have solidarity.
      • for: system change - where to start

      • paraphrase

        • You don't start a feminist revolution by arguing with your dad. He might be the one who needs to change, but that doesn't mean that you start there.
        • You start by talking to each other. We need to come together. We need to have solidarity.
        • We need to have a common narrative and analysis and understanding of what's happening.
        • And I think a common understanding of pathways of change and we need that core nucleus of people who really are working for system change.
        • I think that's where we start. And hopefully, the narrative and the clarity that we can bring will be compelling enough that we will win more hearts and minds
      • comment

        • cascading social tipping points
      • for: COP28 talk - later is too late, Global tipping points report, question - are there maps of feedbacks of positive tipping points?, My Climate Risk, ICICLE, positive tipping points, social tipping points

      • NOTE

        • This video is not yet available on YouTube so couldn't not be docdropped for annotation. So all annotations are done here referred to timestamp
      • SUMMARY

        • This video has not been uploaded on youtube yet so there is no transcription and I am manually annotating on this page.

        • Positive tipping points

          • not as well studied as negative tipping points
          • cost parity is the most obvious but there are other factors relating to
            • politics
            • psychology
          • We are in a path dependency so we need disruptive change
      • SPEAKER PANEL

        • Pierre Fredlingstein, Uni of Exeter - Global carbon budget report
        • Rosalyn Conforth, Uni of Reading - Adaptation Gap report
        • Tim Lenton, Uni of Exeter - Global Tipping Report
      • Global Carbon Budget report summary

      • 0:19:47: Graph of largest emitters

        • graph
        • comment
          • wow! We are all essentially dependent on China! How do citizens around the world influence China? I suppose if ANY of these major emitters don't radically reduce, we won't stay under 1.5 Deg C, but China is the biggest one.
      • 00:20:51: Land Use Emissions

      • three countries represent 55% of all land use emissions - Brazil - DRC - Indonesia

      • 00:21:55: CDR

        • forests: 1.9 Gt / 5% of annual Fossil Fuel CO2 emissions
        • technological CDR: 0.000025% of annual Fossil Fuel CO2 emissions
      • 00:23:00: Remaining Carbon Budget

        • 1.5 Deg C: 275 Gt CO2
        • 1.7 Deg C. 625 Gt CO2
        • 2.0 Deg C. 1150 Gt CO2
      • Advancing an Inclusive Process for Adaptation Planning and Action

      • adaptation is underfinanced. The gap is:

        • 194 billion / year
        • 366 billion / year by 2030
      • climate change increases transboundary issues
        • need transboundary agreements but these are absent
        • conflicts and migration are a result of such transboundary climate impacts
        • people are increasing climate impacts to try to survive due to existing climate impacts

      -00:29:46: My Climate Risk Regional Hubs - Looking at climate risks from a local perspective. - @Nate, @SoNeC - 00:30:33 ""ICICLE** storyllines - need bottom-up approach (ICICLE - Integrated Climate Livelihood and and Environment storylines)

      • 00:32:58: Global Tipping Points

      • 00:33:46: Five of planetary systems can tip at the current 1.2 Deg C

        • Greenland Ice Sheet
        • West Antarctic
        • Permafrost
        • Coral Reefs - 500 million people
        • Subpolar Gyre of North Atlantic - ice age in Europe
          • goes in a decade - like British Columbia climate
      • 00:35:39

        • risks go up disproportionately with every 0.1 deg C of warming. There is no longer a business-as-usual option now. We CANNOT ACT INCREMENTALLY NOW.
      • 00:36:00

        • we calculate a need of a speed up of a factor of 7 to shut down greenhouse gas emissions and that is done through positive tipping points.

      -00:37:00 - We have accelerating positive feedbacks and if we coordinate policy changes with consumer behavior change and business behavior change to reinforce these positive feedbacks, we can help accelerate change in the other sectors of the global economy responsible for all the other emissions

      • 00:37:30

        • in the report we walk you through the other sectors, where their tipping points are and how we have to act to trigger them. This is the only viable path out of our situation.
      • 00:38:10

        • Positive tipping points can also reinforce each other
        • Question: Are there maps of the feedbacks of positive tipping points?
        • Tim only discusses economic and technological positive tipping points and does not talk about social or societal
  4. Dec 2023
    1. What is needed is a breakaway group of nations willing to get serious about the climate emergency. Who would join it? Most of the world’s countries, potentially.
      • for: key point: alternative COP - breakaway group of nations, quote - alternative COP

      • quote

        • What is needed is a breakaway group of nations willing to get serious about the climate emergency. Who would join it? Most of the world’s countries, potentially.
      • author: Rupert Read
      • date: Dec 4, 2021

      • comment

      • suggestion
        • This could very well work. By applying social tipping point theory, a coalition of the willing could potentially accomplish a lot more than a coalition mired in friction.
        • There is enough capacity between 100 nation states willing to take far more aggressive measures than what a few petrostates of the COP convention continuously veto that it could bring about a social tipping point.
    1. Rupert Read has the best idea I have heard re international climate negotiations: countries that are serious should have their own conference where they collaborate on strong targets, plans, etc. Part of which should be recognising the dangers of remaining reliant on the petrostates, planning to transcend that reliance and sanctioning them
      • for: good idea - COP alternative, COP alternative - coalition of the willing, COP alternative - social tipping point, Rupert Read - alternative to COP

      • good idea: COP alternative

        • This could work based on the principle of social tipping points
        • The current COP pits the powerful incumbents of the old system delaying as long as possible rapid system change, these are the conservatives
          • This puts the liberals at distinct disadvantage from the conservatives because in a consensus reached agreement, the conservatives can veto any strong and binding language that represents rapid system change
        • In an alternative conference where the 100+ nation states are already in agreement, action in this smaller coalition OF THE WILLING, will lead to rapid action.
        • This could lead to breaking the threshold of system change via reaching the 25% social tipping point threshold
      • question: alternative COP

        • If an alternative COP was held, is the nation state the best level to approach?
        • What about a city level COP?
      • reference

    1. the French Revolution happened in Denmark
      • for: social tipping points - political, quote - french Revolution - Denmark

      • quote.

        • the French Revolution happened in Denmark
    2. well I'll start with two extremely optimistic points
      • for: answer to above question

      • answer : two answers

        • first, the elite have the majority of
          • wealth
          • control of setting policies
          • control of the media
          • and they work really hard at controlling policy and media
          • and the people
            • hate the system
            • generally hate them
        • second, social tipping points occur. Something happened in over place, then it spreads to other places
      • for: social tipping point, STP, social tipping point - misapplication, social tipping points - 4 application errors

      • title: Social tipping points everywhere?—Patterns and risks of overuse

      • author: Manjana Miikoreit
      • date: Nov 17, 2022

      • abstract

        • The last few years have witnessed an explosion of interest in the concept of social tipping points (STPs),
          • understood as nonlinear processes of transformative change in social systems.
        • A growing body of interdisciplinary scholarship has been focusing in particular on social tipping related to climate change.
        • In contrast with tipping point studies in the natural sciences–for example
          • climate tipping points and
          • ecological regime shifts–
        • STPs are often conceptualized as desirable, offering potential solutions to pressing problems.
        • Drawing on
          • a well-established definition for tipping points, and
          • a qualitative review of articles that explicitly treat social tipping points as potential solutions to climate change,
        • this article identifies four deleterious patterns in the application of the STP concept in this recent wave of research on nonlinear social change:
          • (i) premature labeling,
          • (ii) not defining system boundaries and scales of analysis,
          • (iii) not providing evidence for all characteristics of tipping processes, and
          • (iv) not making use of existing social theories of change.
        • Jointly, these patterns create a trend of overusing the concept.
        • Recognizing and avoiding these patterns of “seeing the world through tipping point glasses” is important for
          • the quality of scientific knowledge generated in this young field of inquiry and for
          • future science-policy interactions related to climate change.
        • Future research should seek to
          • identify empirical evidence for STPs while remaining open to the possibility that
            • many social change processes are not instances of tipping, or that
            • certain systems might not be prone to nonlinear change.
      • for: system justification theory, status quo bias

      • summary

        • Supporting their hypotheses, the authors identify a general trend that social marginalization is associated with less system-justification.
        • Those benefitting from the status quo (e.g., healthier, wealthier, less lonely) were more likely to hold system-justifying beliefs.
        • However, some groups who are disadvantaged within the existing system reported higher system-justification—suggesting that
          • system oppression may be a key moderator of the effect of social position on system justification.
        • This is a very important finding and could be used to develop more effective social tipping point strategies
  5. Nov 2023
    1. the curse of the climate crisis is that relative to covet and relative to the war moves in slower motion yes and that's a challenge
      • comment
        • if we have to wait until planetary tipping points are triggered, it will be too late. There has to be some other less catastrophic event that happens before that. Perhaps some combination of extreme weather events
        • We need to trigger sufficiently large social tipping points before planetary tipping points are breached.
    1. Eine neue Studie ergibt, dass sich das Abschmelzen des westantarktischen Eisschilds selbst dann fortsetzen wird, wenn die Erderhitzung auf 1,5° begrenzt wird. Das Schelfeis stellt ein Kipppelememt dar. Der Abschmelzvorgang verstärkt sich selbst und führt zu einer unaufhaltsamen Erhöhung des Meeresspiegels, weil er den Weg für das hinter dem Schelfeis gelegene Gletschereis frei macht. https://www.derstandard.at/story/3000000192327/meterhoher-meeresanstieg-durch-abschmelzen-des-westantarktischen-eisschelfs

      Studie: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01818-x

      Mehr zur Studie: https://hypothes.is/search?q=tag%3A%27report%3A+Unavoidable+future+increase+in+West+Antarctic+ice-shelf+melting%27

    1. Die englische Regierung hat in der letzten Oktoberwoche 27 Lizenzen zur Öl- und Gasförderung in der Nordsee vergeben. George Monbiot konfrontiert diese Entscheidung mit aktuellen Erkenntnissen zum sechsten Massenaussterben und dem drohenden Zusammenbruch lebensunterstützender Systeme des Planeten https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/oct/31/flickering-earth-systems-warning-act-now-rishi-sunak-north-sea

  6. Oct 2023
    1. caling Up Change: A Critical Reviewand Practical Guide to HarnessingSocial Norms for Climate Action
      • for: social tipping points - climate action, climate action - social tipping points, social norms - climate action, climate action - social norms, Damon Centola

      • title: Scaling Up Change: A Critical Review and Practical Guide to Harnessing Social Norms for Climate Action

      • author:
        • Sara M. Constantino
        • Gregg Sparkman
        • Gordon T. Kraft-Todd
        • Cristina Bicchieri
        • Damon Centola
        • Bettina Shell-Duncan
        • Sonja Vogt
        • Elke U. Weber
      • date: 2022
  7. Sep 2023
    1. in a normal distribution, from over here you have the denialists and over here you have the environmental activists. But in between you have a lot of different types of people. And the majority are actually – we know this from opinion polls – they are very supportive of science. They're very supportive of and concerned about climate change. They want climate action. It's just that they live their normal lives, they have many preoccupations in life. 01:01:44 They have their children, their health, their school, their financing, their incomes. You know, many, many things to be worried about. But that's the question: how do we get this majority, the silent majority, to join us? And I don't think that the way to make them join us is to scare them. And I don't think the way to join is to fight with the denialists. I think the way to join... to make them join... is to show that this pathway can get a better life.
      • for: leverage points, quote, quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - motivating the silent majority, climate change - priority, social tipping point
      • quote
        • In a normal distribution,
          • from over here you have the denialists and
          • over here you have the environmental activists.
        • But in between you have a lot of different types of people.
        • And the majority are actually
          • we know this from opinion polls
        • very supportive of science.
        • They're very supportive of and concerned about climate change.
        • They want climate action.
        • It's just that they live their normal lives, they have many preoccupations in life.They have
          • children,
          • health,
          • school,
          • financing,
          • incomes.
        • You know, many, many things to be worried about.
        • But that's the question:
          • how do we get this majority, the silent majority, to join us?
        • I don't think that the way to make them join us is to
          • scare them and
          • fight with the denialists.
        • I think the way to make them join is to show that this pathway can get a better life.
      • author: Johan Rockstrom
      • date: Sept., 2023

      • comment

        • in other words
        • the silent majority does not yet hold climate change activism to be sufficiently high on their list of priorities yet to warrant the necessary scale of action
    2. our latest science at the Potsdam Institute shows that the Greenland Ice Sheet is connected to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet over the ocean circulation of heat. And that the whole AMOC, the North Atlantic overturning of heat, is slowing down because of the release of cold fresh water from the Greenland Ice Sheet. And when that slows down it locks in more warm surface water, saline surface water, in the Southern Ocean. 00:13:55 Which can explain why Antarctica is melting more rapidly than predicted.
      • for: cascading tipping points, cascading tipping points - Greenland - AMOC - Antarctica

      • highlights

        • latest research at PIK shows that the two poles are connected via the AMOC current.
          • Greenland ice sheet melt releasing cold fresh water is slowing down the North Atlantic overturning of heat.
          • The slowdown is keeping more warm saline water in place in the Southern Ocean, accelerating melting of the Antarctic ice sheet.
    1. Social tipping points and physical tipping points are interrelated. With environmental stress, the former could arrive before the latter, and then cascades develop. Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2023: https://www.cliccs.uni-hamburg.de/results/hamburg-climate-futures-outlook.html
      • for: TPF
      • comment
        • Hamburg climate futures outlook 2023 report supports need for something on the scale of the planned TPF
      • for: system change, polycrisis, extreme weather, planetary tipping points, climate disruption, climate chaos, tipping point, hothouse earth, new meme, deep transformation
      • title: The Great Disruption has Begun
      • author: Paul Gilding
      • date: Sept 3, 2023
      • source: https://www.paulgilding.com/cockatoo-chronicles/the-great-disruption-has-begun
      • summary

        • good q uick opening paragraphs that summarize the plethora of extreme events in 2023 up to Sept 2023 (but misses the Canadian Wildfires) and also the list of potential planetary tipping points that are giving indication of being at the threshold.
        • He makes a good point about the conservative nature of science that underestimates impacts due to the inertia of scientific study.
        • Coins a good meme
          • Everything, everywhere, all at once
        • He ties all the various crisis together to show the many components of the wicked problem we face
        • finally what it comes down to is that we cannot stop the coming unprecedented changes but we can and must slow it down as much as possible and we should be prepared for a wild ride
      • comment

        • It would be a good educational tool for deep and transformative climate education to map all these elements of the polycrisis and show their feedbacks and interactions, especially how it relates to socio-economic impacts to motivate transformative change and mobilize the urgency now required.
  8. Aug 2023
    1. Without a solid spiritual foundation, humanity may well continue on its path toward self-destruction, whether it be through environmental collapse, nuclear war or Artificial Intelligence gone haywire. On the other hand, if we evolve our culture to value inner work as much as we value outer work, then our individual and collective spiritual wisdom might just catch up with our rapidly advancing technology.
    1. hat kinds of individuals or teams or communities or systems cognitively are like the early canary in 00:39:47 the coal mine that you think are ready to transform or somebody who like might hear something about a system they're involved in and think actually yeah that sounds like my organization or self might be at this sort of transition 00:39:58 point
      • for: early adopters, social tipping points, wide bridges
      • question
      • paraphrase
        • who are the envisioned early adopters?
          • there are numerous experiments going on everywhere
          • new digital currencies
          • new types of democratic systems
          • new kinds of economic system proposals
          • existing communities may have a few thousand members, but can be exponentially grown to hundreds of millions
          • lots of small prototypes being built right now, we find the optimal ones and scale those
    1. KDNA is still on-air and continues its community-building tradition, as do many other independent and community radio stations nationwide. One unique example is WGXC in New York’s Upper Hudson Valley. A program division of the nonprofit arts organization Wave Farm, WGXC is the only station in the country that dedicates significant airtime to radio as an artistic medium.
      • for: communications, TPF, STP
        • community radio
          • KDNA
          • WGXC
    1. there is a critical tipping threshold of 35% of the population, for plausible distributions of risk/conformity preferences and expectations.
      • for: social tipping point, STP, social norms, 35% threshold, 25% threshold, TPF
      • question
        • is this result contradicting Centola's 25% threshold finding?
    2. Can policy promote beneficial norm change? The model suggests that effective interventions lower the tipping threshold.
      • for: social tipping point, STP, TPF, social norms, complex contagion, lowering threshold
      • policy changes can lower tipping point thresholds
    3. Two factors consistently helped hasten beneficial change in our study.
      • for: social tipping point, STP, tipping point, social norm, complex contagion
      • study findings
        • Two factors can help hasten beneficial change
          • common understanding of the benefits from change due to:
            • events that attract attention
            • opinion polls that aggregate information
            • finding an angle on an issue that appeals to a broad demographics
          • perserverence
            • leaders who persevere even at great cost
      • for: social tipping point, STP, 25% threshold, 35% threshold, social norms, complex contagion, TPF
      • title
        • Social tipping points and forecasting norm change
      • authors
        • Nikos Nikiforakis
        • Simon Siegenthaler James Andreoni
    1. An interdisciplinary framework for navigating social–climatic tipping points
      • for: social-climatic tipping points, tipping points,
      • title
        • An interdisciplinary framework for navigating social–climatic tipping points
      • for: social tipping points, STP, social tipping point, leverage point, Sirkku Juhola

      • title

        • Social tipping points and adaptation limits in the context of systemic risk: Concepts, models and governance
      • authors
        • Sirkku Juhola
        • Tatiana Filatova
        • Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler
        • Reinhard Mechler
        • Jurgen Scheffran
        • Pia-Johanna Schweizer
      • date
        • Sept 21, 2022
      • abstract

        • Physical tipping points have gained a lot of attention in global and climate change research to understand the conditions for system transitions when it comes to the atmosphere and the biosphere.
        • Social tipping points have been framed as mechanisms in socio-environmental systems, where a small change in the underlying elements or behavior of actors triggers a large non-linear response in the social system.
        • With climate change becoming more acute, it is important to know whether and how societies can adapt.
        • While social tipping points related to climate change have been associated with positive or negative outcomes,
          • overstepping adaptation limits has been linked to adverse outcomes where actors' values and objectives are strongly compromised.
        • Currently, the evidence base is limited, and most of the discussion on social tipping points in climate change adaptation and risk research is conceptual or anecdotal.
        • This paper brings together three strands of literature -
          • social tipping points,
          • climate adaptation limits and
          • systemic risks,
        • which so far have been separate.
        • Furthermore, we discuss
          • methods and
          • models
        • used to illustrate the dynamics of
          • social and
          • adaptation tipping points
        • in the context of cascading risks at different scales beyond adaptation limits.
        • We end with suggesting that further evidence is needed to identify tipping points in social systems,
          • which is crucial for developing appropriate governance approaches.
      • reference

    1. But it's so essential that we go to this place that our brain gave us a solution. Evolution gave us a solution. And it's possibly one of the most profound perceptual experiences. And it's the experience of awe.

      -for: awe, wonder, Deep Humanity, inner transformation, transition, inner/outer transformation, social tipping point, individual tipping point - Awe / wonder (getting in touch with the sacred) is evolutions solution to helping us transition into the unknown - This is in alignment with the essence of the open source Deep Humanity praxis - helping individuals to rediscover the sacred, to transform life back into a living experience of awe and wonder - Deep Humanity's purpose is to rekindle awe so that - we may bring about an individual tipping point, and collectively, - collective tipping point in global society to accelerate the transition out of the polycrisis

      ...moving from the scared back to the sacred

  9. Jul 2023
    1. theology managed to change right from from the medieval theology
      • for: system change, social tipping point
        • if theology can change so radically, so too can economics
    1. we're also showing that these tipping elements are interconnected in 00:10:41 so-called Cascades
      • for: interdependent, emptiness, cascading tipping points
        • the Arctic which is warming three times faster than the planet on average
        • and releases cold fresh water into the North Atlantic slowing down the whole overturning of heat in the North Atlantic
        • which pushes the monsoon further south
        • which can explain droughts and forest fires over the Brazilian part of the Amazon
        • moreover the slowing down of overturning of heat means that more warm water is stuck in the Southern Ocean
        • which can explain why the West Antarctic ice sheet is melting faster than we had expected so there's a connection between the North Pole and the South Pole in this web of interactive tipping elements so
      • This is something we have to recognize we are today a big world on a very small planet and it's all interwired and we are interdependent now
    2. this is 30 years of ipcc Assessments from the third assessment in 2009 all the way to the 1.5 degrees Celsius 00:09:50 assessment a few years back this is the red Embers diagram of confidence in science and what you see for each column is the assessment of risk of irreversible changes and at what 00:10:03 temperature levels 20 years ago at the third assessment the risk was basically assessed as zero because it was set at six degrees Celsius nobody was suggesting we would end up at six degrees but look at the trend line the 00:10:16 more we learn about the planet the more we understand about the coupled interactive Earth system the lower is the temperature at which we put risks of irreversible changes and it's down in 00:10:29 the less than two degrees Celsius range now blinking red so that's where we are
      • for: planetary boundaries, tipping points, planetary tipping points
    3. the Breakthrough here is that for the first time we've been able to put temperature thresholds on the 00:08:44 likely temperatures when we cross the Tipping points that's the color schemes you see in the color coding these five are the ones we really need to be concerned with because they are the first ones on the line at 1.5 degrees 00:08:58 Celsius they're likely to cross their tipping points we're talking here about the green and ice sheet the West Antarctic ice sheet all the tropical coral reef systems home to over 500 million people's livelihood 00:09:11 the Boreal permafrost a breath throwing a permafrost and loss of the barren sea ice
      • for tipping point, planetary tipping point
      • likely temperature thresholds for breaching planetary tipping points at 1.5 Deg C
        • Greenland Ice sheet
        • West Antarctica ice sheet
        • tropical coral reef system
        • boreal permafrost
        • Berent sea ice
      • for: social tipping point, STP
      • title
        • Creating Change: How to Make Big Things Happen
      • guest
        • Damon Centola
      • description
        • a very clear exposition of how complex contagion works and what must be done to spread complex behavior change
      • comment
        • this is particularly important for rapid whole system change and mobilizing a bottom-up movement to deal with our current polycrisis
    1. Im Meer bei Florida wurde eine Oberflächentemperatur von 38,43°C gemessen – möglicherweise ein neuer globaler Rekord. Der Bericht des Guardian geht auf andere marine Hitzewellen und Studien über ihre Zunahme ein. Nach Daten der amerikanischen Wetterbehörde NOAA wurden in diesem Jahr schon im April, Mai und Juni Rekorde bei der Oberflächentemperatur der Ozeane gebrochen. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jul/25/florida-ocean-temperatures-hot-tub-extreme-weather

    1. Eine neue Studie hält es für möglich, dass das Strömungssystem im Nordatlantik seinen Zustand schon in wenigen Jahren so verändert, dass der Golfstrom zusammenbricht. Die Modellierung basiert auf Messungen der Oberflächentemperatur des Nordatlantik seit 1850. Sie legt nahe, dass zwischen 2025 und 2095 ein Kipppunkt erreicht wird, wenn weiter Treibhausgase in die Atmosphäre gepumpt werden. An der Aussagekraft der Daten bestehen aber noch Zweifel. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/25/climate/atlantic-ocean-tipping-point.html

    1. when the size of the committed minority reached~25% of the population, a tipping point wastriggered, and the minority group succeeded inchanging the established social convention.
      • Key finding
        • when the size of the committed minority reached ~25% of the population,
          • a tipping point was triggered, and the minority group succeeded in changing the established social convention.
      • Title
        • Experimental evidence for tipping points in social convention
      • Authors
        • Damon Centola
        • Joshua Becker
        • Devon Brackbill
        • Andrea Baronchelli
      • Date
        • 2018
      • Source
        • Science 360, 1116-1119 (2018)
    1. Abstract
      • The Buddha taught that everything is
        • connected and
        • constantly changing.
      • These fundamental observations of the world are shared by
        • ecology and
        • evolution.
      • We are living in a time of unprecedented rates of extinction.
      • Science provides us with the information that we need to address this extinction crisis.
      • However, the problems underlying extinction generally do not result from a lack of scientific understanding,
        • but they rather result from an unwillingness to take the needed action.
      • I present mindfulness and meditative aspects of Zen practice that provide the deeper “knowing,” or awareness that we need to inspire action on these problems.

      • comment

        • emptiness is interdependency and change
        • in Deep Humanity praxis, it is equivalent to
          • human INTERbeing and
          • human INTERbeCOMing
  10. Apr 2023
  11. Mar 2023
  12. Feb 2023
    1. Aboard the research ship RV Laurence M. Gould, cruising along Antarctica’s west coast, according to Carlos Moffat, chief scientist, Palmer Long Term Ecological Research Program: “Even as somebody who’s been looking at these changing systems for a few decades, I was taken aback by what I saw, by the degree of warming that I saw… We don’t know how long this is going to last. We don’t fully understand the consequences of this kind of event, but this looks like an extraordinary marine heatwave,”
      • Aboard the research ship RV Laurence M. Gould,
      • cruising along Antarctica’s west coast, - - Carlos Moffat, chief scientist, Palmer Long Term Ecological Research Program:
      • “Even as somebody who’s been looking at these changing systems for a few decades, I was taken aback by what I saw, by the degree of warming that I saw… We don’t know how long this is going to last. We don’t fully understand the consequences of this kind of event, but this looks like an extraordinary marine heatwave”
    2. Moffat: “It’s very difficult to warm the ocean, and so when we see these conditions, that really speaks to a very intense forcing.”
      • Antarctica ocean warning
      • extraordinary amount of heat
      • in the Ocean
      • in order to warm it this much
      • There is an extraordinary amount of heat in the Antarctic ocean to warm it up to this degree.

      • Question: is it too late? Have we already reached the Antarctic tipping point?

    1. i can use myself as an example here i i consider myself a pretty smart person i'm in grad school i tried to be really analytical my whole 00:03:56 life and yet i showed up at college when i was 19 years old believing that all the supposedly scientific stuff that white nationalists used to support the idea of race being predictive and segregation being 00:04:09 good and all this stupid stuff i totally believed i thought they were right and i thought everybody was just denying it and it took a community of people in college over years to condemn my beliefs to 00:04:22 show me uh kindness to show me real vitriol to be these in these private conversations where we could go over the facts and it took a long time for me thinking i was really smart and analytical to 00:04:35 accept that it was morally wrong that it was ethically wrong
      • comment
      • Derek Black is an example
      • of what it takes to undo deeply culturally conditioned misinformation
      • these variables have to be present for that to work
        • open mind
        • patience
        • accurate information
        • a caring, patient, informed community
      • Derek Black offers a lesson of what is required to depolarize society using social tipping points
      • there needs to be scalable education program to reach still open-minded individuals holding opposing views
      • to openly and respectfully debate difficult, polarizing issues
      • in order to form the wide bridges necessary for social tipping points of complex issues
    1. real-life situations can be much more complicated, the authors’ model allows for the exact 25 percent tipping point number to change based on circumstances. Memory length is a key variable, and relates to how entrenched a belief or behavior is.
      • 25% social tipping point threshold is adjustable
      • depending on the variables of the context
      • = question - how do we apply this adjustability for complex contagion such as climate change norms?
    2. “And if they’re just below a tipping point, their efforts will fail. But remarkably, just by adding one more person, and getting above the 25 percent tipping point, their efforts can have rapid success in changing the entire population’s opinion.
      • going from just below 25% to just above 25% results in a dramatic change in adoption of a new norm
    3. When a minority group pushing change was below 25 percent of the total group, its efforts failed. But when the committed minority reached 25 percent, there was an abrupt change in the group dynamic, and quickly a majority of the population adopted the new norm.
      • = 25% Social Tipping Point
      • A committed minority group pushing for change just below 25% of the total group population does not succeed
      • but when the committed minority is just above 25%,
      • abrupt change in group dynamics quickly causes a majority of the population to adopt the new norm
  13. Jan 2023
    1. Semantic leadership   Extent to which word usage by one entity is subsequently adopted by others. Specifically, Klein measures how often novel semantic usage in a given newspaper is mirrored by other newspapers. When a newspaper is a semantic leader, its semantic usage better predicts the later usage of that word in other newspapers compared to those other newspapers' own, earlier usage of the word.

      How might this leadership happen within the social epidemic view of Malcolm Gladwell's Tipping Point framework?

      • the law of the few,
      • the stickiness factor, and
      • the power of context

      and with respect to mavens, connectors, and salespeople?

    1. green and ice sheet accelerated melting warming four times faster than the planet as a whole releasing cold fresh water slowing down the overturning of heat in the North Atlantic pushing the whole Monsoon 00:02:24 system down further south causing droughts and forest fires over the Amazon rainforest one more tipping element system locking warm surface or water in the Southern Ocean accelerating the melting of the West Antarctic ice 00:02:36 sheet the North Pole is connected to the South Pole in regulating the stability of the entire Earth system

      !- cascading tipping points : example - melting Greenland glacier dumps cold fresh water into North Atlantic - excess cold water shows down the AMOC current - a slower AMOC causes monsoons to move further south - this causes drought and forest fires in Amazon rainforest and warms the southern oceans - warning southern oceans accelerates melting of Antarctica ice sheets

      !- comment : slowing AMOC - can also affect many other processes - https://www.sciencefriday.com/segments/atlantic-ocean-currents-amoc/

    2. 16 tipping elements the large biophysical systems that we have scientific evidence that the regulates 00:01:23 the state of the entire climate system on Earth nine of these 16 are showing signs of instability push them too far and they will shift over from supporting Humanity 00:01:34 to starting to undermine Humanity four of these are showing scientific evidence of now being at risk already at 1.5 degrees Celsius

      !- 16 tp elements : interconnected global climate system

    3. we're taking colossal risks with the future of civilization on Earth We're degrading life support system that we all depend on we're actually pushing 00:00:57 the entire Earth system to a point of destabilization pushing Earth outside of the state that has support civilization since we left the last ice age 10 000 years ago this requires a transformation to safe 00:01:11 and just Earth system boundaries for the whole world economy

      !- Title : Leading the charge through earth’s new normal !- speakers : Johan Rockstrom et al.

    1. The posture of democratic citizenship is avowal of rights and obligations of membership in a civic community. The rationale for this is the moral and political goodness of a civic way of living and the shared promise of human self-realization through interdependence. As such it is the exemplary, most inclusive form of membership; it is a precondition for the sustainability in the modern secular era of other expressions of membership in our lives—social, economic, kinship, familial, and intimate.[17] Again, citizenship avows—makes a vow, takes on a trust—on behalf of a future of moral and political potential toward which it is reasonable to strive. Citizenship is iterative and ongoing; it provides continuity and provokes innovation; each generation of democratic citizens begins a new story of the demos and continues an ongoing one.[18]

      !- key finding : citizenship is a trusteeship - in which the individual takes on responsibility to participate in upholding the mutually agreed principles and promises leading to collective human self-realization - the individual works with others to collective realize this dream which affects all individuals within the group

      !- implement : TPF / DH / SRG -implement this education program globally as part of Stop Reset Go / Deep Humanity training that recognizes the individual collective entanglement and include in the Tipping Point Festival as well

  14. Nov 2022
    1. Das Gletschereis im Norden Grönlands schmilzt sechsmal schneller ab als bisher angenommen. Die Indizien dafür, dass das Kipp-Element Grönländischer Eisschild schon sehr instabil ist, verdichten sich.

  15. Oct 2022
    1. We have left it too late to tackle climate change incrementally. It now requires transformational change, and a dramatic acceleration of progress.

      !- slogan : from climate change to system change

  16. Sep 2022
  17. Jul 2022
    1. Though we do not pursue this point here, it is logical to considerthat poor people will be found to experience a greater psychological pressure to identify with theirpersonware as this reduces the overwhelming cognitive load they are subject to.) The task is then onlyto take care that the personware remains consistent with the social roles available—and to steer clearof anything that reminds one of what has thus been lost

      !- insight : poor identify with their personware * it just brings too much pain to know what one is denied

      !- for : social tipping points * building wide bridges requires uniting diverse groups * understanding this self denial as a form of survival is important to understand the psychology of the oppressed

    1. Most academics continue to insist that it is still – barely – physically possible to limit warming to no more than 1.5°C. There are strong incentives to stay behind the invisible line that separates academia from wider social and political concerns, and so to not take a clear position about this.But we need to clearly acknowledge now that warming will exceed 1.5°C because we are losing vital reaction time by entertaining fantastic scenarios. The sooner we get real about our current situation and what it demands, the better.

      Slight chance. We need nonlinear solutions and to find all the leverage points, social tipping points and idling capacity we can.:

      Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth’s climate by 2050 https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pnas.org%2Fdoi%2F10.1073%2Fpnas.1900577117&group=world

      An Introduction to PLAN E Grand Strategy for the Twenty-First-Century Era of Entangled Security and Hyperthreats https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.usmcu.edu%2FOutreach%2FMarine-Corps-University-Press%2FExpeditions-with-MCUP-digital-journal%2FAn-Introduction-to-PLAN-E%2Ffbclid%2FIwAR3facE8l6Jk4Msc8C1nw8yWtwnzSCXVZGlO7JLkjqo8CWYTYAqAMTPkTO8%2F&group=world

      Science Driven Societal Transformation https://hyp.is/go?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdocdrop.org%2Fvideo%2Fz9ZCjd2rqGY%2F&group=world

  18. Jun 2022
    1. Milkoreit et al. (23) propose a common definition of social tipping points (STPs) as points “within an SES at which a small quantitative change inevitably triggers a non-linear change in the social component of the SES, driven by self-reinforcing positive-feedback mechanisms, that inevitably and often irreversibly lead to a qualitatively different state of the social system.” There are historical examples of dynamic social spreading effects leading to a large self-amplification of small interventions: For example, the writings of one man, Martin Luther, injected through newly available printing technology into a public ready for such change, triggered the worldwide establishment of Protestant churches (24). An example in the field of climate policy is the introduction of tariffs, subsidies, and mandates to incentivize the growth of renewable energy production. This has led to a substantial system response in the form of mutually reinforcing market growth and exponential technology cost improvement (25, 26).In this paper, we examine a number of potential “social tipping elements” (STEs) for decarbonization (27, 28) that represent specific subdomains of the planetary social-economic system. Tipping of these subsystems could be triggered by “social tipping interventions” (STIs) that could contribute to rapid transition of the world system into a state of net zero anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

      Accronyms:

      STP - social tipping point STE - social tipping element STI - social tipping intervention

    1. Why is it nearly invisible?

      triggering social tipping points and mitigating collective illusion of climate change can make it visible rapidly.

    2. Those communities that reject business as usual and cut their energy spending and all the materialist values that go with it, just might survive the long emergency and write a different ending to this story.

      Unfortunately, our fates are collectively tied so we must collectively do this at scale to prevent tipping points. The motto of the Tipping Point Festival: Reach Social tipping points before planetary ones are breached.

    1. right now we're not being honest with each other about our values and if that's happening then we cannot form norms you can't design norms they happen 00:47:46 out of human action not human design but they only emerge when there is a real consensus about our shared values and so we've got to get back to that i mean it seems almost like like self-evident and we'll duh but like 00:47:59 if if we're going to continue to self-silence or even lie about our beliefs like the result are going to be collective illusions at scale and whole societies can be taken down by those and listen it 00:48:11 would something like a free society living in a democracy like we take that for granted that is a blip in human history the idea that it can't disappear overnight is silly it can and it will 00:48:23 and it would be one thing if it disappeared because privately we collectively gave up on that experiment right but it's a tragedy if it disappears not because of 00:48:34 private change in values but because of collective illusions and that's that's what for me felt like the urgency to write the book right like that it just felt like things were spinning out of control 00:48:46 and yet we have more data on private opinion in america than probably anybody else i would argue um and i can tell you it's just not true right so i think that's both there's both a dangerous aspect to 00:48:58 illusions but also a hopeful one you know because history has shown us that if you recognize the illusion and you take an effort to dismantle it social change can happen at a scale and pace that would seem unimaginable 00:49:10 otherwise well i can't think of any other way to end in that message so thank you todd so much for this marathon you did with me and two parts thank you we obviously have so much shared values and we're not 00:49:22 as divided as people tell us we are [Laughter] but but now we know why right now we know why it feels that way and if we if we can recognize that we really can no longer trust our brain to accurately 00:49:36 read group consensus then we can get back to this it never really mattered right be who you are learn to be authentic um discover your real self and and work really hard to be congruent between your 00:49:48 private self and your public self the rest takes care of itself

      Exponential change can happen if social tipping points are triggered by a few influencers have a change of heart because they have become educated on how the collective illusion operations, and how congruency of these few influencers can cause exponential change.

    2. it's essential and i just love the idea of setting an example for others you know 00:44:40 that's that's that's the way out of this trap is you start doing that and then other people in your group start doing it and then all of a sudden your group's the whole illusion breaks down the emperor has no clothes 00:44:53 or the emperor has clothes the effort does have clothes eventually eventually guess what i'm trying to say eventually yeah what's great about illusions is that they're powerful when they're enforced but they're fragile because 00:45:04 they're social lies right like like you don't want it to be true you wish it weren't true and so what you're really looking for is is wait a minute like so for some of us we just need one 00:45:15 other person to speak up to give us the the the strength to do the same other people need more but what you see is once you start getting the crack in the illusion it affects what we call like bandwagon 00:45:28 change right like it'll just swerve quickly and suddenly it looks like almost overnight the group has shifted its view so whenever you see stuff um it's funny in politics they call it momentum there's no such thing as momentum that's not what that is that is 00:45:41 that is that is an illusion where people's private behavior is like oh wait a minute this is like i can now say what i really think right i feel comfortable saying what i really think um so when you see like sort of exponential change 00:45:53 in public opinion like that's usually the that's usually that there's an illusion underneath there um because if people privately believe something it is very hard to change that and so you know doing that is like one off right i have 00:46:05 to change your mind or change someone else's mind and so you'll usually see slow linear growth or change in in public opinion when you see it change really quickly like it did with marriage equality marriage equality the public 00:46:17 approval for that i mean it's unreal since what since 2003 to today it's basically flipped in terms of its its acceptance like that doesn't happen if privately most people were against it it just doesn't 00:46:30 such a good point so much the reason why it's so hard is because like the oxytocin bonding mechanism is run so deep in our dna and our biology and and overriding that is not easy 00:46:42 because once we feel this social trust we we can lie you know we can we'll do anything well i cheat steal for our in group

      One of the key triggers for social tipping points is shifting the values of influential people under the spell of collective illusion from incongruency to congruency.

  19. May 2022
    1. Similar to the way in which oil field executives were invited to Washington, DC, to help the United States mobilize during World War II, the hyper-response will adopt a similar approach to the task of building a new material security net. Leaders in the areas of renewable energy, zero emissions and ecological design, resource eagles, defense, and other relevant research and development fields, as well as tradespeople, will be invited to plan and deliver one of the largest engineering and human training and employment feats in world history. OP NewNet will jump-start humanity’s fight back against the hyperthreat.

      to achieve large mobilization, a cascading social tipping point strategy can be fruitful, coupled with a conditional onboarding such as employed in the Simpol strategy: https://www.simpol.ph/ Conditional onboarding works because, like crowdfunding, nobody needs to make any resource commitment unless sufficient momentum is demonstrated.

    2. In 2022, the focus is exploring and envisioning the hyper-response and embarking on this mission. It will involve engaging and energizing people, analysis, planning, and some early actions. The “E” in PLAN E stands for “Earth,” “everyone,” “everything,” and “everywhere.”

      The global, open access Tipping Point Festival can be launched as a zero marginal cost festival (ZMCF) or a netfest for bottom-up, rapid whole system change to synchronize the ordinary citizens of the globe to deal with the hyperthreat.

    3. Design of a hyper-response will be dependent on a comprehensive strategic planning process being enacted and ongoing discourse and revision. This strategic concept focuses on phase 1 and provides introductory ideas for phase 2.

      The public Indyweb, which supports symmathesy, deep conversation, adjacent association space and private as well as publicly owned data can have a force multiplier effect by massive amounts of discoverable knowledge. If knowledge is what constrains good decisions, then discoverability of salient knowledge can lead to better decisions and better actions.

      Incorporating a cascading, iterative, recursive Social Tipping Point (STP) strategy is also highly salient and can accelerate the viral spread of scalable system change through the global population.

    4. Its success hinges on not only communication of the problem but also the capacity for humans to undertake synchronized action toward the same goal. Coordination, cooperation, teamwork, and leadership skills become significant to survival capacity.  

      A global syncrhonizing event such as a regularly held Tipping Point Festival (TPF) to promote and accelerate social tipping points, leverage points and idling resources amongst ordinary citizens and an open wisdom commons, open knowledge commons, open research commons for massive open online collaboration at zero marginal cost is what is required to support this. It would allow global syncrhronization and high efficacy discoverability of openly shared knowledge and solutions.and rapid dissemination and localized clean production for clean provisioning systems appropriate to each community on the planet. Such a system we have tentatively called the Indyweb, where data is privately owned and secure and any data made public is stored immutably. Indyweb becomes an asset owned by humanity itself, with no centralized authority claiming ownership. The technology now exists to make this feasible.

  20. Mar 2022
    1. Mass protests against Russia’s aggression combined with existing political pressure to move more quickly on climate change might lead to new policies to do yet more.

      The time is ripe for a converged march and to launch SRG Tipping Point Festival.

  21. Jan 2022
    1. Our last, best hope of averting systemic environmental collapse is to use the peculiarities of complex systems to trigger cascading political regime shifts.

      Prioritizing the application of social tipping point theory.

    2. As the paper notes, a large body of work suggests that “the power of small groups comes not from their authority or wealth, but from their commitment to the cause”.

      What does paper author Damon Centola think about competing minorities?...who will win out to cause the tipping point?

  22. Nov 2021
    1. i think the focus was very much on energy supply and to a limited extent on things like um yeah technologies and like vehicle 01:00:07 technologies for example but um much much less in terms of getting people to particularly in developed countries to use less energy and to change diet and to travel less and fly less and all these these things and i think part of 01:00:19 that and it is also reflected in the fact that it was fairly much absent in the uk's net zero strategy is that it is seen as being politically difficult that it might be a you know it might mean that they that politicians lose votes that 01:00:33 it's just too difficult to get people to change their behavior that it's threatening that it might mean lower standards of living um in developed countries etc so i think kind of it's still it's still seen as something and that that was quite explicit i think in 01:00:45 the forward to the uk strategy um so i think in terms of how we move beyond that that's that's difficult but i think it is about reframing behavior change and demand demand management in 01:00:58 much more positive terms to say this isn't a threat there are actually opportunities there are opportunities to improve people's health and well-being to create green jobs to reskill people in new sectors and 01:01:09 and so on and it is not about you know reducing uh quality of life or well-being it's not about people losing jobs etc so this is i think there's a job here to kind of reframe it in terms of those those opportunities and those 01:01:22 co-benefits so that would be my my initial thought

      Reframing loss as gain is one strategy worth exploring for behavior change. Also explore social tipping points of complex contagion.

    1. social change typically spreads as ‘complex contagions,’ requiring multiple sources of social reinforcement to induce adoption,”

      Climate change requires large investment in behavior change. It is a case of complex contagion, not simple contagion. Wide bridges are the key to bringing about social tipping points of complex contagion.

    1. Social convention, which has for so long worked against us, can if flipped become our greatest source of power, normalising what now seems radical and weird. If we can simultaneously trigger a cascading regime shift in both technology and politics, we might stand a chance. It sounds like a wild hope. But we have no choice. Our survival depends on raising the scale of civil disobedience until we build the greatest mass movement in history, mobilising the 25% who can flip the system.

      This is the core philosophy behind Stop Reset Go, but NOT NECESSARILY just in the direction of civil disobedience. To invest only in that is to put all our eggs in one basket that top down actors will be pressured beyond a certain threshold. It may happen, it may not, or it may just take too long. We must diversify and also invest in systematized bottom-up efforts.

    2. Another paper explored the possibility that the Fridays for Future climate protests could trigger this kind of domino dynamics. It showed how, in 2019, Greta Thunberg’s school strike snowballed into a movement that led to unprecedented electoral results for Green parties in several European nations. Survey data revealed a sharp change of attitudes, as people began to prioritise the environmental crisis. Fridays for Future came close, the researchers suggest, to pushing the European political system into a “critical state”. It was interrupted by the pandemic, and the tipping has not yet happened. But witnessing the power, the organisation and the fury of the movements gathered in Glasgow, I suspect the momentum is building again.

      The space is ripe for interventions that can facilitate social tipping points.

    1. A final cluster gathers lenses that explore phenomena that are arguably more elastic and with the potential to both indirectly maintain and explicitly reject and reshape existing norms. Many of the topics addressed here can be appropriately characterized as bottom-up, with strong and highly diverse cultural foundations. Although they are influenced by global and regional social norms, the expert framing of institutions, and the constraints of physical infrastructure (from housing to transport networks), they are also domains of experimentation, new norms, and cultural change. Building on this potential for either resisting or catalyzing change, the caricature chosen here is one of avian metaphor and myth: the Ostrich and Phoenix cluster. Ostrich-like behavior—keeping heads comfortably hidden in the sand—is evident in different ways across the lenses of inequity (Section 5.1), high-carbon lifestyles (Section 5.2), and social imaginaries (Section 5.3), which make up this cluster. Yet, these lenses also point to the power of ideas, to how people can thrive beyond dominant norms, and to the possibility of rapid cultural change in societies—all forms of transformation reminiscent of the mythological phoenix born from the ashes of its predecessor. It is conceivable that this cluster could begin to redefine the boundaries of analysis that inform the Enabler cluster, which in turn has the potential to erode the legitimacy of the Davos cluster. The very early signs of such disruption are evident in some of the following sections and are subsequently elaborated upon in the latter part of the discussion.

      The bottom-up nature of this cluster makes it the focus area for civil society movements, human inner transformation (HIT) approaches and cultural methodologies.

      Changing the mindset or paradigm from which the system arises is the most powerful place to intervene in a system as Donella Meadows pointed out decades ago in her research on system leverage points: https://donellameadows.org/archives/leverage-points-places-to-intervene-in-a-system/

      The sleeping giant of billions of potential change actors remains dormant. How do we awaken them and mobilize them. If we can do this, it can constitute the emergence of a third unidentified actor in system change.

      The Stop Reset Go (SRG) initiative is focused on this thematic lens, bottom-up, rapid whole system change, with Deep Humanity (DH) as the open-source praxis to address the needed shift in worldview advocated by Meadows. One of the Deep Humanity programs is based on addressing the psychological deficits of the wealthy, and transforming them into heroes for the transition, by redirecting their WEALTH-to-WELLth.

      There are a number of strategic demographics that can be targeted in methodical evidence-based ways. Each of these is a leverage point and can bring about social tipping points.

      A number of 2021 reports characterize the outsized impact of the top 1% and top 10% of humanity. Unless their luxury, high ecological footprint behavior is reeled in, humanity won't stand a chance. Annotation of Oxfam report: https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Foxfamilibrary.openrepository.com%2Fbitstream%2Fhandle%2F10546%2F621305%2Fbn-carbon-inequality-2030-051121-en.pdf&group=__world__ Annotation of Hot or Cool report: https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fhotorcool.org%2Fhc-posts%2Frelease-governments-in-g20-countries-must-enable-1-5-aligned-lifestyles%2F&group=__world__

  23. Oct 2021
  24. bafybeiery76ov25qa7hpadaiziuwhebaefhpxzzx6t6rchn7b37krzgroi.ipfs.dweb.link bafybeiery76ov25qa7hpadaiziuwhebaefhpxzzx6t6rchn7b37krzgroi.ipfs.dweb.link
    1. Yet, these lenses also point to the power of ideas, to how people can thrive beyonddominant norms, and to the possibility of rapid cultural change in societies—all forms of trans-formation reminiscent of the mythological phoenix born from the ashes of its predecessor. It isconceivable that this cluster could begin to redefine the boundaries of analysis that inform the En-abler cluster, which in turn has the potential to erode the legitimacy of the Davos cluster. The veryearly signs of such disruption are evident in some of the following sections and are subsequentlyelaborated in the latter part of the discussion.

      This passage pays homage to Donella Meadows, who identified the shift in mindset or paradigm that supports the system as the top leverage point. If we can shift this mindset in sufficient number of people, it can shift the thinking of the Enabler Cluster identified in the paper. A social tipping point strategy can be adopted to help this to happen quickly. This strategy is being developed by Stop Reset Go and other civil society actors.

  25. May 2021
  26. Apr 2021
    1. Currently, Pine Island Glacier together with its neighbouring Thwaites glacier are responsible for about 10% of the ongoing increase in global sea level.
    2. Researchers have confirmed for the first time that Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica could cross tipping points, leading to a rapid and irreversible retreat which would have significant consequences for global sea level.
  27. Feb 2021
    1. Es geht darum, dass es vom Tempo der Änderungen, nicht nur von der Größe abhängt, wann ein Kippelement ausgelöst wird. Konkret würde dass für die nordatlantische Strömung in einer Simulation herausgefunden.

  28. Dec 2020
  29. Nov 2020
  30. Oct 2020
    1. Incurring high-cost changes isn't evolutionary design-it's oscillation caused by poor planning and requirements specification on a high cost-of-change component-it tips the anticipation/adaptation balance too far towards adaptation.