https://shindig.com/login/event/100yearedtechlive

Zusammenfassende Steiner über den Widerstand gegen eine ökologisch orientierte Politik und vor allem den Green Deal in der EU. https://www.derstandard.de/story/3000000208412/in-der-eu-waechst-der-widerstand-gegen-gruene-reformen

Der britische Premierminister Sunak hat in n Wales an Protesten von militanten Vertreter:innen der konventionellen Landwirtschaft teilgenommen, die eine Abkehr von der Net-Zero-Politik fordern.

for - climate crisis - agricultural protest

Die Europäische Volkspartei wird Ursula von der Leyen wieder für die Präsidentschaft der EU-Kommission nominieren. Von der Leyen ist aber zu einer sehr deutlichen Kursskorrektur gezwungen. Wirtschaftswachstum soll statt Klimaschutz im Vordergrund stehen. Das Handelsblatt erläutert die Hintergründe der Kandidatur. Der Verzicht auf Maßnahmen zu Klima- und Biodiversitätsschutz in der Landwirtschaft diente von der Leyen offenbar dazu, sich die Unterstützung des Agrarsektors zu sichern. https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/zweite-amtszeit-fuer-eu-kommissionschefin-warum-die-cdu-an-ihrer-gruenen-kommissionschefin-festhaelt/100013966.html

for - climate crisis - interview - Neil degrasse Tyson - Gavin Schmidt - 2023 record heat - NASA explanation

podcast details - title: How 2023 broke our climate models - host: Neil degrasse Tyson & Paul Mercurio - guest: NASA director, Gavin Schmidt - date: Jan 2024

summary - Neil degrasse and his cohost Paul Mercurio interview NASA director Gavin Schmidt to discuss the record-breaking global heating in 2023 and 2024. - Neil and Paul cover a lot in this short interview including: - NASA models can't explain the large jump in temperature in 2023 / 2024. Yes, they predicted incremental increases, but not such large jumps. Gavin finds this worrying. - PACE satellite launches this month, to gather important data on the state of aerosols around the planet. This infomration can help characterize more precisely the role aerosols are playing in global heating. - geoengineering with aerosols is not considered a good idea by Gavin, as it essentially means once started, and if it works to cool the planet, we would be dependent on them for centuries. - Gavin stresses the need for a cohesive collective solution, but that it's beyond him how we achieve that given all the denailsim and misinformation that influeces policy out there.

for - climate sensitivity - Sabine Hossenfelder - James Hansen

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/15/opinion/truth-climate-future.html

for - litigation terrorism - ISDS - corporate tribunal system - Michael Levin - multi-scale competency architecture - example - adjacency - evolutionary biology - corporate law - climate crisis

adjacency - between - corporate law - climate crisis - evolutionary biology - cultural evolution - adjacency statement - Biologist Michael Levin's multi-scale competency architecture of evolutionary biology seems to apply here - in the field of corporate law - Corporations can be viewed as one level of a social superorganism in a cultural evolution process - Governments can be viewed similiarly, but at a higher level - The ISDS is being weaponized by the same corporations destroying the global environment to combat the enactment of government laws that pose a threat to their livelihood - Hence, the ISDS has been reconfigured to protect the destroyers of the environment so that they can avoid dealing with their unacceptable externalizations - The individual existing at the lower level of the multi-scale competency architecture(the corporation) is battling to survive against the wishes of the higher level individual (the government) in the same multi-scale competency architecture

for - Inflation Reduction Act - bolstering to reach NDC

for - climate defiance - climate protest group

Stefan Rahmstorf erklärt die neue Studie zum Tipping Point der Amoc. Die bisher beste Computersimulation des Strömungssystems bestätigt die Existenz des Kipppunkts. Sie ergibt auch ein Signal für die bevorstehende Auslosung des Kipppunkts. Messungen des Salzgehalts in der Nähe des südlichen Afrikas zeigen, dass das Risiko für die Auslosung deutlich gestiegen ist. https://scilogs.spektrum.de/klimalounge/neue-studie-legt-nahe-dass-die-atlantische-umwaelzzirkulation-amoc-auf-kippkurs-ist/

Eine Studie der Rhodium Group zeichnet ein Zukunftsbild, das vielen Dekarbonisierungsprognosen - außer bei Stromproduktion und Autos - krass widerspricht. (Es liegt deutlich über den SSP2-4.5-Szenario des IPCC.) 2100 wird danach der Erdgasverbrauch bei 126% des jetzigen liegen. Flugzeuge werden 2050 77% mehr fossilen Treibstoff verbrauchen als jetzt, Schifffahrt und Industrie etwa die heutige Menge. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/09/biggest-fossil-fuel-emissions-shipping-plane-manufacturing

Rhodium Climate Outlook: https://climateoutlook.rhg.com/

Rhodium-Artikel zur Prognose: https://rhg.com/research/global-fossil-fuel-demand/

Frankreich stellt großen Unternehmen Darlehen in Höhe von 2 Milliarden Euro für die Klimaanpassung zur Verfügung. Öffentliche Unternehmen müssen bei Bauprojekten ein Anpassungskonzept vorlegen. Ein Anpassungskonzept wird auch von allen großen, für die Infrastruktur relevanten öffentlichen Unternehmen verlangt. "Die Klimaerwärmung und die Unglücke, die sich daraus ergeben, sind bereits unser Alltag", sagte Wirtschaftsminister Bruno Le Maire. https://www.liberation.fr/environnement/adaptation-au-changement-climatique-letat-va-debloquer-deux-milliards-deuros-de-prets-verts-aux-entreprises-20240208_UI4DU7WYLRD23P3RPTKBTJUW34/

Die Selbstverpflichtungen der Regierungen zur Dekarbonisierung reichen bei weitem nicht aus. Ein Bericht, der von den Vereinten Nationen als Grundlage für die kommende COP28 publiziert wurde, ergibt, dass 2030 etwa 20 bis 23 Gigatonnen mehr CO₂ emittiert werden sollen, als mit dem 1,5 °-Ziel verträglich wäre. Zum ersten Mal wird in einem offiziellen UN-Dokument das Ende der Nutzung fossiler Brennstoffe gefordert. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/08/un-report-calls-for-phasing-out-of-fossil-fuels-as-paris-climate-goals-being-missed

Bericht: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/EMBARGOED_DRAFT_Sythesis-report-of-the-technical-dialogue-of-the-first-global-stocktake.pdf

Bericht: https://unfccc.int/documents/631600

Cross reference The Parrot and the Igloo.

for - 2nd Trump term - 2nd Trump presidency - 2024 U.S. election - existential threat for climate crisis - Title:Trump 2.0: The climate cannot survive another Trump term - Author: Michael Mann - Date: Nov 5, 2023

Summary - Michael Mann repeats a similiar warning he made before the 2020 U.S. elections. Now the urgency is even greater. - Trump's "Project 2025" fossil-fuel -friendly plan would be a victory for the fossil fuel industry. It would - defund renewable energy research and rollout - decimate the EPA, - encourage drilling and - defund the Loss and Damage Fund, so vital for bringing the rest of the world onboard for rapid decarbonization. - Whoever wins the next U.S. election will be leading the U.S. in the most critical period of the human history because our remaining carbon budget stands at 5 years and 172 days at the current rate we are burning fossil fuels. Most of this time window overlaps with the next term of the U.S. presidency. - While Mann points out that the Inflation Reduction Act only takes us to 40% rather than Paris Climate Agreement 60% less emissions by 2030, it is still a big step in the right direction. - Trump would most definitely take a giant step in the wrong direction. - So Trump could singlehandedly set human civilization on a course of irreversible global devastation.

for - 2nd Trump term - regressive climate policy

for - quote - Michael Mann - quote - 2024 U.S. elections - future of civilization - quote - existential threat of 2024 Trump win - polycrisis - politics - inequality - climate

quote - Michael Mann - date: May 11, 2023 - source: The Hill - Op Ed - https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4290467-trump-2-0-the-climate-cannot-survive-another-trump-term/ - (see below)

• It is not an overstatement to say, one year out, that
  • we face an American election unlike any other.
• It will determine
  • not only the course of the American experiment
  • but the path that civilization collectively follows.
    • On the left is democracy and environmental stewardship.
    • On the right is fascism and planetary devastation.
• Choose wisely.

Die EU-Kommission möchte die Bestimmung, dass die Landwirtschaft 4% der genutzten Flächen stillegt, um die Biodiversität zu fördern, aufgrund der sogenannten Bauernproteste außer Kraft setzen. https://taz.de/Zugestaendnisse-der-EU-an-Bauern/!5985994/

• for: annotate, Michael Mann - critique of James Hansen 2023 paper, climate crisis - James Hansen - Michael Mann, suggestion - debate - james hansen - michael mann, question - has Hansen responded to Mann yet?

suggestion - can we arrange an online debate between James Hansen and Michael Mann?

Seit 2000 sind mindestens 4 Millionen Menschen direkt an Folgen der globalen Erhitzung gestorben. Diese Minimalschätzung in einer neuen Studie begründet, die globale Erhitzung schon jetzt als Gesundheitsnotstand zu behandeln. https://www.repubblica.it/green-and-blue/2024/01/31/news/negli_ultimi_ventanni_la_crisi_del_clima_ha_causato_4_milioni_di_morti-422021774/

for - climate crisis - 2023 U.S. poll - demographics - climate communication - 2023 U.S. poll - demographics - climate change - 2023 U.S. poll - demographics - U.S. Hispanic / Latinos - 2023 - high concern about climate crisis - U. S. African American - 2023 - high concern about climate change - U.S. Gen Z - 2023 - high concern about climate change

for - climate crisis - 2023 U.S. poll - climate communication - 2023 U.S. poll

for - silver economy - stats - silver economy

stats - silver economy - 2024 - 7 trillion yuan ($982 billion USD) - 6 % GDP - 2035 - 30 trillion yuan ($4.2 trillion USD) - 10% GDP

question - silver economy - climate change impacts? transition impacts?

for - 2024 U.S. elections - polycrisis - 2024 U.S. elections - existential threat to civilization- climate crisis

summary - Some good points: - importance of Black and Latino voters - importance of a third party that can spoil the vote

for - quote - Michael Mann - quote - a Second Trump presidency - polycrisis - politics and climate crisis - climate mitigation strategy - voting in 2024 U.S. election - adjacency - Michael Mann - 2nd Trump presidency - exceeding planetary boundaries - exceeding 1.5 Deg C - Gen Z voting

adjacency - between - Michael Mann - 2nd Trump presidency - exceeding planetary boundaries - exceeding 1.5 Deg C - Trump's presidency is existential threat to humanity - Gen Z voting - 2024 election - adjacency statement - Michael Mann's quote " A second Trump term is game over for the climate - really" applies to the 2024 election if Trump becomes the Republican nominee. - Trumps dismal environmental record in his 2016 to 2020 term speaks for itself. He would do something similiar in 2025 if he were the president. G - Given there are only 5 years and 172 days before we hit the dangerous threshold of burning through all the carbon budget for humanity, - https://climateclock.world/ - It is questionable whether Biden's government alone can do enough, but certainly if Trump won the 2024 election, his term in office would create a regression severe enough to put the Paris Climate goal of staying within 1.5 Deg C out of reach, and risk triggering major planetary tipping points - A Biden government is evidence-based and believes in anthropogenic climate change and is already taking measures to mitigate it. A Trump government is not evidence-based and is supported by incumbent fossil fuel industry so does not have the interest of the U.S. population nor all of humanity at heart. - Hence, the 2024 U.S. election can really determine the fate of humanity. - Gen Z can play a critical role for humanity by voting against a government that would, in leading climate scientists Michael Mann's words, be game over for a stable climate, and therefore put humanity and unimaginable risk. - Gen Z can swing the vote to a government willing to deal with the climate crisis over one in climate denial so voting activists need to be alerted to this and create the right messaging to reach Gen Z - https://hyp.is/LOud7sBBEe6S0D8itLHw1A/circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/41-million-members-gen-z-will-be-eligible-vote-2024

Das unabhängige britische Climate Change Committee hat seine Schlussfolgerungen enaus den Ergebnissen der Kopf 28 publiziert. Darin wird die britische Regierung zu einer deutlichen Beschleunigung der dekarbonisierung aufgefordert.Aaders sein die Verpflichtungen aus dem Pariser Abkommen nicht umzusetzen. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/30/uk-must-act-urgently-to-meet-climate-commitments-says-watchdog

Eine Studie enthält starke Hinweise darauf, dass die globale Erhitzung die Lebenserwartung weltweit schon um 6 Monate verkürzt hat. https://www.derstandard.de/story/3000000203417/neue-hinweise-zu-den-acht-zutaten-die-20-zusaetzliche-lebensjahre-bringen

Die EU hat 2023 durch die Verbrennung von fossilen Brennstoffen 8% weniger CO₂ emittiert als 2022. Damit liegen diese Emissionen wieder auf dem Niveau der 60er Jahre. Um die Klimaziele der EU zu erreichen, müssen die Emissionen noch schneller reduziert werden. Das European Advisory Board on Climate Change hat dazu in der vergangenen Woche eine Reihe von Vorschlägen gemacht. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/24/eu-fossil-fuel-co2-emissions-hit-60-year-low

for - de-silo examples

examples - de-silo - Battle of Seattle - Occupy Wallstreet - Keystone XL - Labour and Climate

Der Standard informiert über zwei Studien, die unter anderem den Zusammenhang von Stadtentwicklung und globaler Erhitzung betreffen. Vor allem in den USA wird für die Mehrzahl der großen Städte eine Schrumpfung vorausgesagt, verstärkt durch die Folgen der Erhitzung. Die Studie verwendet ist Szenarien des IPCC. Unter anderem ergibt sich daraus die Forderung, die Stadtplanung nicht mehr vor allem an der Vorstellung von wachsenden Städten auszurichten. https://www.derstandard.de/story/3000000203501/tausende-us-staedte-koennten-bis-2100-zu-geisterorten-werden

2023 war in Großbritannien das zweitwärmste Jahr der Aufzeichnungsgeschichte. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/02/climate-crisis-2023-was-uks-second-hottest-on-record

Erst nach Protesten wurden zwölf Frauen in das Organisationskomitee für die COP29 aufgenommen. Aserbaidschan hatte zunächst ein rein männliches Komitee vorgesehen. Zu den Mitgliedern des Komitees gehört auch der Chef von Aserbaidschans staatlichem Gasverteilungsnetzwerk. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/19/women-cop29-climate-summit-committee-backlash

Zwei der Reports, die zum Weltwirtschaftsforum 2024 publiziert wurden, betonen die Bedeutung von Risiken, die mit der globalen Erhitzung, der Zerstörung der Biodiversität und der lebenserhaltenden Systeme des Planeten verbunden sind. Der Artikel der Repubblica zählt klimapolitisch wichtige Ereignisse des Jahres 2024 auf.https://www.repubblica.it/green-and-blue/2024/01/17/news/world_economic_forum_2024_cambiamento_climatico-421899576/

Großbritannien will die Kapazitäten seiner Atomkraftwerke bis 2050 auf 24 GW steigern. Von Angie aus werden diese Pläne auch kritisiert weil die Kosten der Atomenergie enorm hoch sind. https://www.repubblica.it/economia/rapporti/energitalia/trasformazione/2024/01/16/news/la_gran_bretagna_punta_sullenergia_nucleare-421889343/

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/aug/05/climate-crisis-scientists-spot-warning-signs-of-gulf-stream-collapse

Catiana Krapp fordert in einem Kommentar, Wintershall Dea nicht an eine britische Firma verkaufen zu lassen. In wenigen Sätzen wird zusammengefasst, warum (aus der hier vorausgesetzten) Sicht großer Teile der deutschen Wirtschaft und auch der deutschen Bundesregierung die Klimapolitik deutlich an Ehrgeiz verloren hat. Priorität hat die sofortige Versorgung mit Energie. Außerdem spielt die Aussicht auf CCS eine große (allerdings trügerische) -Rolle. https://www.handelsblatt.com/meinung/kommentare/kommentar-deutschland-braucht-ein-unternehmen-wie-wintershall/100008135.html

Die Desinformation zur globalen Erhitzung hat sich von der Klimaleugnung hin zum Säen von Zweifeln an möglichen Lösungen verschoben. Einer neuer Studie zufolge sind wichtige Strategien auf Youdas Tube das Herunterspielen der negativen Konsequenzen, Erzeugen von Misstrauen in die Klimaforschung und vor allem die Behauptung, dass vorhandene technische Lösungen nicht praktikabel sind. Außerdem werden Verschwörungstheorien wie die vom Grand Reset bemüht. https://www.repubblica.it/green-and-blue/2024/01/17/news/negazionismo_climatico_youtube-421894897/

Studie: https://counterhate.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/CCDH-The-New-Climate-Denial_FINAL.pdf

for - explainer video - cities adapting to climate change - climate-resilient cities

uses - good explainer video for BEing journeys to demonstrate trending local impacts

for - resource - climate change performance index - how well a city is adapted to the climate crisis

for - definition - human climate niche

https://phys.org/news/2024-01-global-ocean-temperatures.html

https://www.repubblica.it/green-and-blue/2024/01/16/news/davos_world_economic_forum_cambiamenti_climatici_morti-421887165/

Bericht zu einer empirische Studie zu Binnen-Klimamigration in Thailand. Die Studie versucht der Komplexität der Ursachen wie der Folgen der Klimamigration für Haushalte gerecht zu werden.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/3000000202402/klimamigration-ist-weder-katastrophe-noch-allheilmittel

Studie: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2206185120#sec-3

for - climate crisis - U.S. intra-country migration - key insight - climate migration - towards disaster zones

for - climate crisis - food production impacts - stats - high emissions scenario -food production

stats - high emissions scenario - over 30% of food crop production and animal production impacted - mostly around equator

from - Linked In - https://hyp.is/umZ5yrMLEe6Y4W-fLtvt_w/www.linkedin.com/posts/thaliacoaching_the-foods-the-world-will-lose-to-climate-activity-7151258292344803329-23m8/

to - https://www.wired.com/story/the-foods-the-world-will-lose-to-climate-change/ for - climate crisis - food production impact

for - nature-based carbon sequestration - reestablish whale populations - Nate Hagen - The Great Simplification - David King - climate crisis - solutions - progress trap - overfishing - whales

Überblicksartikel über klimapolitische Fort- und Rückschritte 2023, besonders zu Großbritannien, Schweden, den Niederlanden und China. Ausführlich wird auf Maßnahmen der britischen und schwedischen Regierung eingegangen, die die bisherige konsequente Klimapolitik deutlich verwässern. https://www.derstandard.de/story/3000000188940/war-2023-ein-jahr-der-klimapolitischen-rueckschritte

Die taz beschäftigt sich mit den Vorschlägen Emmanuel Macrons zur Klimafinanzierung für den globalen Süden. Dabei geht es u.a. um neue Regeln für Weltbank und IWF, um eine Beteiligung vor allem Chinas an der Finanzierung ärmerer Länder und um Kreditvergaben zu deutlich niedrigeren als den jetzigen Zinsen. Für den Erfolg dieser Pläne wird entscheidend sein, ob beim G20-Gipfel im November 24 und bei der COP30 entsprechende Beschlüsse gefasst werden.https://taz.de/Geld-fuer-den-Klimaschutz/!5984779/

Die obersten 2000 m der Ozeane haben 2023 15 Zettajoule Wärme mehr absorbiert als 2022. Die Erwärmung dieser Schichten verringert den Austausch mit den kälteren unteren Schichten und belastet die marinen Ökosysteme dadurch zusätzlich. Bisher sind keine Zeichen für eine Beschleunigung der Zunahme des Wärmehinhalts im Verhältnis zu den Vorjahren zu erkennen. Die Oberflächentemperatur der Ozeane lag im ersten Halbjahr 0,1°, im zweiten Halbjahr aber für die Wissenschaft überraschende 0,3 Grad über der des Jahres 2022. Schwere Zyklone, darunter der längste bisher beobachtete überhaupt, trafen vor allem besonders vulnerable Gebiete.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/11/ocean-warming-temperatures-2023-extreme-weather-data

Study: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-024-3378-5

Report: https://www.globalwater.online/#content

for: - climate crisis - local approach, bottom up approach - cosmolocal - climate crisis

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/sep/22/rishi-sunak-urged-to-stop-attacking-climate-change-committee

• for: climate mitigation, stats - 40% reduction by 2030, quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - fossil fuel phase out

• quote: Johan Rockstrom

  • All stakeholders in the world must now act according to the agreed Cop28 output, and deliver on the CopP28 Global Stocktake Agreement,
    • which means rapidly transitioning away from oil, coal and gas, aiming at more than 40% reductions by 2030
• Date: Dec 31, 2023

Die New York Times illustriert ihren Bericht zu der Copernicus-Zusammenfassung der Klimaentwicklung 2023 mit zwei Infografiken zu den Monatstemperaturen der vergangenen Jahre und zu Temperaturen in den verschiedenen Regionen der Erde. Noch ist unklar, ob die trotz El Niño unerwartet hohen Temperaturen Signal einer Beschleunigung der globalen Erhitzung sind. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/09/climate/2023-warmest-year-record.html

Copernicus-Bericht: https://climate.copernicus.eu/global-climate-highlights-2023

Infografik: https://static01.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2024-01-08-year-in-heat/395771e2-3b2c-4c16-a6a6-360735130222/_assets/chart-Artboard_2.png

Infografik: https://static01.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2024-01-08-year-in-heat/395771e2-3b2c-4c16-a6a6-360735130222/_assets/map-Artboard_2.jpg

Die ersten 60 Tage von Israels Krieg gegen die Hamas im Gaza-Streifen haben mindestens 281.000 Tonnen CO₂ freigesetzt, das entspricht 150.000 Tonnen Kohle. Die Zahlen stammen aus einer neuartigen, noch nicht peer-reviewten Studie und erfassen nur einen kleinen Teil der Gesamtemissionen. Der Wiederaufbau der zerstörten Gebäude dürfte so viele Emissionen verursachen, wie Neuseeland in einem Jahr erzeugt. Insgesamt ist das Militär für etwa 5,5% der weitweiten Emissionen verantwortlich. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/09/emissions-gaza-israel-hamas-war-climate-change

Infografik: https://interactive.guim.co.uk/uploader/embed/2024/01/israel_gaza_war_emissions/giv-13425X8Z9JjArEXFO/Israel_Gaza_war_emissions-inArticle_620.png

• for: climate denial - insurance companies will make everyone pay, climate deniers - will pay carbon tax - via insurance, carbon tax - climate deniers

• for: health, David Sinclair, longevity tips, adjacency - lifestyle choices - diet - climate crisis - biodiversity crisis

• SUMMARY

  • The main tips for staying healthy from a lifetime of longevity research on this video.

• adjacency between

  • lifestyle choices
• personal diet
  • climate crisis
  • biodiversity crisis
• adjacency statement:
  • Promoting this kind of diet and lifestyle can have enormous benefits on climate crisis as well.
  • One could write a paper about the crossover benefits to climate and biodiversity crisis.

Emmanuel Macron orientiert sich, wie der Kommentator der Libération schreibt, mehr an seinem konservativen Vorgänger Nicolas Sarkozy als an Greta Thunberg. Wirksame Maßnahmen zu einer Reduktion der Emissionen und zur Brechung der Macht von Konzernen wie TotalEnergies werden nicht getroffen. Klimaleugnung und Populismus bestimmen einen großen Teil des öffentlichen Diskurses in Frankreich. https://www.liberation.fr/politique/confondre-volontairement-la-meteo-et-le-climat-la-grossiere-excuse-pour-justifier-linaction-20240108_AHWHLCZMO5DWDME4PM47VGLBQA/

Einer Analye des Handelsblatt Research Institute zufolge sind 1,1 Billionen Euro Investitionen in die Infrastruktur nötig um in Deutschland bis 2045 klimaneutralität zu erreichen. Dieser Betrag ist 65 mal so groß wie die haushaltslücke, die nach dem aktuellen Urteil des Bundesverfassungsgerichts gefüllt werden muss. Die Analyse stützt sich auf vorhandene Studien die unter anderem massive Investitionen in Gaskraftwerke fordern. https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/energie/energiewende-das-billionenprojekt-so-teuer-ist-die-infrastruktur-der-zukunft/100002597.html

Die französische Regierung plant ihre Zielsetzungen in der Energiepolitik zu revidieren und sie statt für erneuerbare Energien nur noch für Nuklearenergie anzugeben. Zugleich soll die Formulierung zur Reduktion der Treibhausgase abgeschwächt werden. Die erste Version dieses investigativen Artikels der Libération hat zu verwaschenen offiziellen Distanzierungen geführt. https://www.liberation.fr/environnement/climat/le-gouvernement-veut-delaisser-les-energies-renouvelables-electriques-au-profit-du-nucleaire-20240106_OBJ35O7RUVHARC3XTX6BRJHQX4/

Bangladesch ist dem Climate Risk Index zufolge das am siebtstärksten von den Folgen der globalen Erhitzung betroffene Land. Bis zur Mitte des Jahrhunderts wird dort mit 20 Millionen Binnenflüchtlingen aufgrund der Erhöhung des Meeresspiegels gerechnet. Die Regierung vertritt die Interessen der wirtschaftlichen Elite und reagiert zunehmend mit harter Repression auf Opposition. Reportage über junge AktivistInnen in Bangladesch anlässlich der Wahlen, an denen die wichtigsten Oppositionsparteien nicht teilnehmen. https://www.repubblica.it/green-and-blue/2024/01/05/news/bangladesh_elezioni_cambiamento_climatico-421819356/

Hochwasser wir die aktuellen in Norddeutschland wurden vorausgesehen. Rechtzeitige langfristige Anpassungsmaßnahmen scheiterten aber an der Bürokratie, wie die TAZ im Kommentar feststellt.

https://taz.de/Hochwasser-in-Niedersachsen/!5981359/

Das britische Climate Change Commitee hat seit 18 Monaten keinen Chair. Die Nichtbesetzung dieser Stelle durch die Regierung gilt ein Signal dafür, dass sie sich zunehmend von den Dekarbonisierungszielen der konservativen Vorgängerregierungen entfernt. Fachleute, darunter Nicolas Stern, kritisieren die Verzögerung. Das Komitee legt unter anderem die britischenTreibhausgas-budgets fest und hatte in der Vergangenheit die zu langsame Politik der Regierung wiederholt deutlich kritisiert.https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/30/sunak-under-fire-failure-appoint-climate-committee-chief

Die Argentinierin Celeste Saulo ist neue Präsidentin der Weltwetterorganisation WMO. Sie wird die Perspektive des globalen Süden stärker in deren Arbeit einbringen. Zu den wichtigsten Prozessen im WMO- Bericht 2011-2O20 im vergangenen September gehört das Untergraben nachhaltiger Entwicklung durch Extremwetter-Ereignisse. https://taz.de/Weltorganisation-fuer-Meteorologie/!5981934/

• for: COP28 talk - later is too late, Global tipping points report, question - are there maps of feedbacks of positive tipping points?, My Climate Risk, ICICLE, positive tipping points, social tipping points

• NOTE

  • This video is not yet available on YouTube so couldn't not be docdropped for annotation. So all annotations are done here referred to timestamp

• SUMMARY

  • This video has not been uploaded on youtube yet so there is no transcription and I am manually annotating on this page.

  • Positive tipping points

    • not as well studied as negative tipping points
    • cost parity is the most obvious but there are other factors relating to
      • politics
      • psychology
    • We are in a path dependency so we need disruptive change

• SPEAKER PANEL

  • Pierre Fredlingstein, Uni of Exeter - Global carbon budget report
  • Rosalyn Conforth, Uni of Reading - Adaptation Gap report
  • Tim Lenton, Uni of Exeter - Global Tipping Report

• Global Carbon Budget report summary

• 0:19:47: Graph of largest emitters

  • graph
  • comment
    • wow! We are all essentially dependent on China! How do citizens around the world influence China? I suppose if ANY of these major emitters don't radically reduce, we won't stay under 1.5 Deg C, but China is the biggest one.

• 00:20:51: Land Use Emissions

• three countries represent 55% of all land use emissions - Brazil - DRC - Indonesia

• 00:21:55: CDR

  • forests: 1.9 Gt / 5% of annual Fossil Fuel CO2 emissions
  • technological CDR: 0.000025% of annual Fossil Fuel CO2 emissions

• 00:23:00: Remaining Carbon Budget

  • 1.5 Deg C: 275 Gt CO2
  • 1.7 Deg C. 625 Gt CO2
  • 2.0 Deg C. 1150 Gt CO2

• Advancing an Inclusive Process for Adaptation Planning and Action

• adaptation is underfinanced. The gap is:

  • 194 billion / year
  • 366 billion / year by 2030
• climate change increases transboundary issues
  • need transboundary agreements but these are absent
  • conflicts and migration are a result of such transboundary climate impacts
  • people are increasing climate impacts to try to survive due to existing climate impacts

-00:29:46: My Climate Risk Regional Hubs - Looking at climate risks from a local perspective. - @Nate, @SoNeC - 00:30:33 ""ICICLE** storyllines - need bottom-up approach (ICICLE - Integrated Climate Livelihood and and Environment storylines)

• 00:32:58: Global Tipping Points

• 00:33:46: Five of planetary systems can tip at the current 1.2 Deg C

  • Greenland Ice Sheet
  • West Antarctic
  • Permafrost
  • Coral Reefs - 500 million people
  • Subpolar Gyre of North Atlantic - ice age in Europe
    • goes in a decade - like British Columbia climate

• 00:35:39

  • risks go up disproportionately with every 0.1 deg C of warming. There is no longer a business-as-usual option now. We CANNOT ACT INCREMENTALLY NOW.

• 00:36:00

  • we calculate a need of a speed up of a factor of 7 to shut down greenhouse gas emissions and that is done through positive tipping points.

-00:37:00 - We have accelerating positive feedbacks and if we coordinate policy changes with consumer behavior change and business behavior change to reinforce these positive feedbacks, we can help accelerate change in the other sectors of the global economy responsible for all the other emissions

• 00:37:30

  • in the report we walk you through the other sectors, where their tipping points are and how we have to act to trigger them. This is the only viable path out of our situation.

• 00:38:10

  • Positive tipping points can also reinforce each other
  • Question: Are there maps of the feedbacks of positive tipping points?
  • Tim only discusses economic and technological positive tipping points and does not talk about social or societal

• for: types of initiators of community projects, SONEC - initiators of community projects, question - frameworks for community projects, suggestion - collaboration with My Climate Risk, suggestion - collaboration with U of Hawaii, suggestion - collaboration with ICICLE, suggestion - collaboration with earth commission, suggestion - collaboration with DEAL

• question: frameworks for community projects

  • If our interest is to attempt to create a global collective action campaign to address our existential polycrisis, which includes the climate crisis, then how do we mobilize at the community level in a meaningful way?

  • I suggest that this must be a cosmolocal effort. Why? Knowledge sharing across all the communities will accelerate the transition of any participating local community.

  • This means that we cannot rely on citizens living in small communities to construct an effective coordination framework for rapid de-escalation of the polycrisis. The capacity does not exist within small communities to build such a complex system. The system can be more effectively built before the collective action campaign is started by a virtual community of experts and ready for trial with pilot communities.
  • To meet this enormous challenge, it cannot be done in an adhoc way. At this point in time, many people in many communities all around the globe know of the existential crisis we face, but if we look at the annual carbon emissions, none of the existing community efforts has made a difference in their continuing escalation.
  • The knowledge required to synchronize millions of communities to have a unified wartime-scale collective action mobilization to reach decarbonization goals that the mainstream approach has not even made a dent in will be a complex problem.
  • In other words, what is proposed is a partnership.
  • Since we are faced with global commons problems that pose existential threats if not mitigated in 5 to 8 years, the scope of the problem is enormous.
  • Super wicked problems require unprecedented levels of collaboration at every level.
  • The downscaling of global planetary boundaries and doughnut economics seems the most logical way to think global, act local.

  • Building such a collaboration system requires expert knowledge. Once built, however, it requires testing in pilot communities. This is where a partnership can take place

  • 2024, Jan. 1 Adder

    • My Climate Risk Regional Hubs
      • time 29:46 of https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Funfccc.int%2Fevent%2Flater-is-too-late-tipping-the-balance-from-negative-to-positive&group=world
      • https://www.wcrp-climate.org/mcr-hubs
      • Suggestion:
        • SRG has long entertained a collaborative open science project for grassroots polycrisis / climate crisis education - to measure and validate latest climate departure dates
        • This would make climate change far more salient to the average person because of the observable trends in disruption of local economic activity connected to the local ecology due to climate impacts
        • This would be a synergistic project between SRG, LCE, SoNeC, My Climate Risk hubs, ICICLE and U of Hawaii
        • Our community frameworks need to go BEYOND simply adaptation though, which is what "My Climate Risk" focuses exclusively on. We need to also engage equally in climate mitigation.
  • reference
  • I coedited this volume on examples of existing cosmolocal projects
    • https://clreader.net/

• for: climate deniers - where they live

• for: climate deniers - celebrity

• for: climate deniers - leading

• for: James Hansen - 2023 paper, key insight - James Hansen, leverage point - emergence of new 3rd political party, leverage point - youth in politics, climate change - politics, climate crisis - politics

• Key insight: James Hansen

  • The key insight James Hansen conveys is that
    • the key to rapid system change is
      • WHAT? the rapid emergence of a new, third political party that does not take money from special interest lobbys.
      • WHY? Hit the Achilles heel of the Fossil Fuel industry
      • HOW? widespread citizen / youth campaign to elect new youth leaders across the US and around the globe
      • WHEN? Timing is critical. In the US,
        • Don't spoil the vote for the two party system in 2024 elections. Better to have a democracy than a dictatorship.
        • Realistically, likely have to wait to be a contender in the 2028 election.

• reference

  • paper - Global Warming in the Pipeline
    • https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Facademic.oup.com%2Foocc%2Farticle%2F3%2F1%2Fkgad008%2F7335889&group=world
  • Michael Mann's critique of the paper
    • https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmichaelmann.net%2Fcontent%2Fcomments-new-article-james-hansen&group=world

• for: key insight- polycrisis - climate crisis - political crisis, climate crisis - requires a new political party, money in politics, climate crisis - fossil fuel lobbyists, climate change - politics, climate crisis - politics, James Hansen - key insight - political action - 3rd party

• key insight

  • Both democrats and conservatives are captured by fossil fuel lobbyist interests
  • A new third political party that does not take money from special interests is required
  • The nature of the polycrisis is that crisis are entangled . This is a case in point. The climate crisis cannot be solved unless the political crisis of money influencing politics is resolved
  • The system needs to be rapidly reformed to kick money of special interest groups out of politics.

• question

  • Given the short timescale, the earliest we can achieve this is 2028 in the US Election cycle
  • Meanwhile what can we do in between?
  • How much impact can alternative forms of local governance like https://sonec.org/ have?
  • In particular, could citizens form local alternative forms of governance and implement incentives to drive sustainable behavior?

• for:May 2024 - James Hansen prediction, extreme weather event - May 2024 - Hansen 2023 paper, prediction - extreme weather 2024

• for: climate crisis - next generation nuclear - alternative to, question - James Hansen - knowledge of deep geothermal power

• climate crisis: next generation nucliear - alternative

  • question
    • Has James Hansen come across Deep Geothermal Power yet?
      • https://hyp.is/ZnzWcp_fEe6c3Kv_ggkRiQ/cascadeinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Deep-Geothermal-Superpower-version-2.0-.pdf

• for: ranked voting, third party - ranked voting, climate crisis - ranked voting, climate crisis - third party with no money from special interests

• for: quote - James Hansen, quote Benjamin Franklin, climate crisis - leverage point - political revolution

• quote

  • If we don't solve the problem in the United States, I don't see us solving the global problem
• author: James Hansen

• date: Dec 2023

• comment

  • Tipping Point network

• climate crisis - leverage points - young people - politics

• comment

  • Hansen considers politics to be the key leverage point for young people now, not protesting and raising awareness

• for: climate crisis - multiple dimensions, polycrisis - multiple dimensions, climate crisis - good references, polycrisis - good references, polycrisis - comprehensive map, power to the people, climate change - politics, climate crisis - politics

• comment / summary

  • The content on this website may be what some call "doomers" that support a narrative of unavoidable catastrophe and civilization collapse
  • The author does an excellent job of drawing together many scientifically validated research papers and news media stories on various crisis and integrates them together to support his narrative.
  • As the author states, it is still incomplete but it is comprehensive and detailed enough to use as a starting foundation to build a complex polycrisis map upon. becaues it shows the complexities of the interwoven nexus of problems we face and the massive network of feedbacks between them that makes solving any one of them alone in isolation an impossibility
  • The Cascade Institute focuses on social tipping points, complexity and polycrisis. We could synthesis a number of tools to map out and reveal effective mitigation strategies including:
    • Cascade Institute tools
    • Social tipping point tools
    • SRG mapping tool along with Indyweb / Indranet
    • Culture hacking tools
    • SIMPOL strategy
    • Downscaled Earth System Boundary tools
    • SRG Deep Humanity BEing journey tools
    • James Hansen's recommendation that the biggest leverage point is new form of governance
      • We need to rapidly emerge a new global third political party that does not take money from special interest groups
    • Progressive International comes to the same conclusion as James Hansen, that the key leverage point for rapid whole system change is radically new governance that puts power back to the hands of the people - power to the people
      • https://hyp.is/N0bxsJaaEe6Nmp_cqQcA7Q/docdrop.org/video/3dxLs-zX5xA/
    • SONEC's
    • Indyweb's people-centered, interpersonal methodology is a perfect match for SONEC circle-within-circles fractal structure
      • mention to @Gyuri
      • I've seen this circle-within-circle fractal, holonic group idea with Tim's software as well as Roberto's
  • Feebate from local governance groups (from another Doomer site - Arctic Emergency)
    • https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feebates.html
  • What the author's narrative shows is
    • how precarious our situation is
    • how many trends are getting far worse in the immediate future
    • how we are already undercapacitated to deal with existing crisis so how will we deal with new ones that are exponentially worse?
    • all these crisis will impact our supply chains. Why are these important? Our reliance on technology is dangerous and makes us very vulnerable
    • Think of your laptop, cellphone or other electronic device that relies on a vast, complex and globally operational internet. Imagine that tidal surges wipes out the globally critical data centers located in New York. Or imagine electronic factories in China and Taiwan are wiped out due to extreme weather. How will you get or fix a broken piece of electronic equipment? We rely on each millions of specialized jobs all working smoothly in order for our laptop to continue working and communicating with each other.

• epiphany

• recommendation for new Indyweb / Indranet tools
  • independent time and date stamp tool for every online, virtual sentence we write so we recognize in a long composition when we inserted a new idea
  • ability to trace rapid trains of thought to reveal how new insights emerge from within our consciousness
• While writing this, I just recalled that we should have a way to time and date stamp every single virtual online action, like in this annotation because recall happens so nonlinearly and we won't have a hope to trace and trailmark without it. Hypothesis doesn't have time and date stamps of every sentence available to the user. So we don't know what nonlinear memory recall led to a specific sentence in an annotation. We need some independent Indyweb / Indranet tool that will do this universally. Trains of thoughts are so fragile we can forget the quick cascades very easily.

• for: James Hansen, paper - Global Warming in the Pipeline, prediction - May 2024, find - May 2024 prediction, suggestion - debate - James Hansen - Michael Mann, climate crisis - politics, climate change - politics

• Summary

  • See the Dan Miller interview in the reference below
  • The key point for SRG work in mobilizing and awakening the sleeping giant of the commons is summarized in the 3rd required action in the last sentence of his abstract:
    • "Current political crises present an opportunity for RESET, especially if young people can grasp their situation." (Bold is from SRG)

• reference

  • James Hansen Dec. 2023 interview discussing this paper
    • https://hyp.is/go?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdocdrop.org%2Fvideo%2F8Ag3UVSrlhE%2F&group=world
    • Dan Miller, who interviews Hansen and who has coauthored a paper with him, states in the interview that May 2024 is a test date for validating the paper's claims:
    • https://hyp.is/HRKEfqYAEe6lGJ_E57_9Mw/docdrop.org/video/8Ag3UVSrlhE/
    • Find
      • Identify the section in the paper that Miller is alluding to which makes the prediction about events of May 2024.
  • Michael Mann's critique of the paper
    • https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmichaelmann.net%2Fcontent%2Fcomments-new-article-james-hansen&group=world

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/27/climate/horn-of-africa-somalia-drought.html

Studie: https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/human-induced-climate-change-increased-drought-severity-in-southern-horn-of-africa/

Der Standard fasst Berichte der WMO, des europäischen Wetterdienstes Copernicus und des Österreichischen Alpenvereins zum Schwund der Gletscher 2022 zusammen. Die europäischen Alpengletscher verloren 2022 mehr als 5 Kubikkilometer Eis. Die Schweizer Alpengletscher haben in 20 Jahren ein Drittel ihres Eises eingebüßt. Bei einer Temperaturerhöhung um 2,7° bis 2100 würde allein durch das fast vollständige Abschmelzen der Gletscher in Mitteleuropa, den USA, Westkanada und Neuseeland der Meeresspiegel um 115mm steigen.

https://www.derstandard.de/story/2000145833249/die-gletscher-schmolzen-2022-im-rekordtempo-besonders-in-europa

Infografik: https://b.staticfiles.at/elm/static/2023-04-schneeanomalie/index.html?nc9238cb923b983a

• for: question - climate crisis - local solutions - scalability

• question

  • These are great starts but is there a trajectory to scaling them to replace a large part of society's GDP as a minimum but total holistic wellbeing as a final goal?:

upon minor differences by men of science and belief in their strenuous search for the completest truth and the exactest expression sometimes gives color to this sort of misunderstanding.

This emphasis on minor differences is exactly what many anti-science critics have done. See examples with respect to evolution and climate science denial.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/15/fossil-fuels-how-a-huge-gamble-sealed-cop28-deal

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/14/failure-cop28-fossil-fuel-phase-out-devastating-say-scientists

• from:LinkedIn Post shared by Phoebe Coyne on low economic growth can help achieve staying under 1.5 Deg C.

• for: climate solutions - low economic growth, Jason Hickel,

• for: science communication, climate communication

• title: Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Other Groups Declines

• author:
  • Brian Kennedy
  • Alec Tyson
  • Cary Funk
• date:Feb. 15, 2022

https://www.carbonbrief.org/cop28-key-outcomes-agreed-at-the-un-climate-talks-in-dubai/

• for: climate crisis - role of community

• comment

  • Jane starts off a great conversation with the thesis that communities can be the key for solving the climate crisis

• for: question - can communities have real impact?

• question: can communities have real impact?

  • In this discussion, Ross is acting as the devil's advocate questioning whether communities can have real impact. He is consistent and his comments are based on evidence and experience. He challenges everyone else to prove him wrong and makes everyone go deeper to validate their positions.
  • Ross makes valid points that so far, have not been effectively addressed, mainly because nobody has thought further of how to systematically organize communities to the scale required. It's not trivial!

• for: climate crisis - debate - community action, climate crisis - discussion - community action, indyweb - curation example

• discussion: effectiveness of community action to address climate crisis

  • This is a good discussion on the effectiveness of community action to address the climate crisis.
  • It offers a diverse range of perspectives that can all be mapped using SRG trailmark protocol and then data visualized within Indyweb via cytoscape

Oxfam legt die bisher umfangreichste Studie zur weltweiten Klima-Ungleichheit vor. Sie wurde gemeinsam mit dem Guardian und dem Stockholm Institut erstellt. Sie ergibt unter anderem, dass das reichste Prozent der Weltbevölkerung für mehr Emissionen verantwortlich ist als die unteren 66%. Analysiert wird auch die Verbindung von wirtschaftlicher und politischer Macht der globalen Eliten und die Möglichkeit, eine just transition durch Besteuerung der Superreichen zu finanzieren https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/20/richest-1-account-for-more-carbon-emissions-than-poorest-66-report-says

Report: https://policy-practice.oxfam.org/resources/climate-equality-a-planet-for-the-99-621551/

• for: academic communication to the public - importance, elites - two types, key insight - elites, key insight - science communication

• comment

• key insight

  • Elites are necessary in every society
  • Historically, people who strongly believe that the current elites aren't necessary or are harmful often become the revolutionaries who become the new elites
  • elites need to speak in their own specialist language to each other but there are two kinds of elites
    • those who serve society
    • those who serve themselves
    • often, we have fox in sheep's clothing - elites who serve themselves but disguise themselves in the language of elites who serve others in order to gain access to power ,
    • we normally think of wealthy people as elites, but Harari classifies scientists as also a kind of elite
  • elites may be necessary but
    • We are caught in a double bind, a wicked problem as elites are also the world's greatest per capita energy consumers and their outsized ecological, consumption and energy footprint is now a existential threat to the survival of our species

• references

  • Kevin Anderson: A Habitable Earth Can No Longer Afford The Rich – And That Could Mean Me And You
    • https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fclimateuncensored.com%2F1485-2%2F&group=world
  • The role of high-socioeconomic-status people in locking in or rapidly reducing energy-driven greenhouse gas emissions
    • https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Farticles%2Fs41560-021-00900-y&group=world
  • Millionaire spending incompatible with 1.5 °C ambitions
    • https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sciencedirect.com%2Fscience%2Farticle%2Fpii%2FS2666791622000252&group=world

• for: quote - Yuval Noah Harari, quote - storytelling, quote - scientific storytelling, science communication, climate communication

• key insight

• quote

  • If we want to see science having a deeper impact on society and politics, it's crucial that we have also scientific storytelling

• comment

  • I would just add that it should be COMPELLING scientific storytelling