Climate misinformation in a climate of misinformation
- Title
- Climate misinformation in a climate of misinformation
Climate misinformation in a climate of misinformation
4-Jul-2023 — Transcript is translated from German by YouTube.
Description (translated from German):
The problem of a Bavarian farmer: his hops are thirsty and the energy transition is progressing too slowly. The solution: a solar system that provides shade over the fields - and a sustainable second source of income.
title
good article to show a calm down guy!
Die Weltbank finanziert weiterhin in großem Umfang fossile Projekte, obwohl sie behauptet, nur Investitionen zu unterstützen, die mit dem Pariser Abkommen vereinbar sind. Die Richtlinen dazu lassen aber z.B. Investitionen in die Gasinfrastruktur zu und verlangen keine wissenschaftliche Begutachtung von Projekten anhand objektiver Kriterien. https://www.energymonitor.ai/finance/sustainable-finance/opinion-why-the-world-banks-paris-alignment-process-could-add-fuel-to-the-climate-crisis/?utm_source=cbnewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=2023-07-03&utm_campaign=Daily+Briefing+03+07+2023 (via CarbonBrief)
Der britische Minister für internationale Umweltangelegenheiten ist zurückgetreten. In seinem Rücktrittsschreiben wirft er Premierminister Sunak vor, an Umweltfragen uninteressiert zu sein und die internationale Führungsposition Großbritanniens in der Umwelt- und Naturschutzpolitik aufgegeben zu haben.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/30/zac-goldsmith-resignation-letter-in-full
Die Stabilitätsregeln der EU, die ab nächstem Jahr wieder strikt eingehalten werden sollen, würden in fast allen Ländern die Investitionen verhindern, die für das Erreichen der EU-Klimaziele nötig sind. Ausführliche Analyse der Klimafinanz-Situation in Europa nach dem Pariser Klimafinanz-Gipfel. https://www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/carbon-budget-versus-fiscal-budget/
Bruegel-Analyse: https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/fiscal-rule-legislative-proposal-what-has-changed-what-has-not-what-unclear
Vor der Pariser Konferenz zur Klimafinanzierung, bei der vor allem die sogenannte Bridgetown Agenda diskutiert werden soll, begründet Avinash Persaud, ein Berater der Premierministerin von Barbados, die Forderungen nach radikaler Veränderung und Aufstockung der Klimafinanzierung. Die Summen, die der globale Süden für klimaanpassung und Klimaschutz erhält, müssen potenziert werden, damit diese Länder der Klimakatastrophe wirksam begegnen können. Nicholas Stern und Vera Songwe beziffern den jährlichen klimafinanzbedarf des globalen Südens auf Billionen Dollar, etwa die Summe, die zurzeit für fossile Energien ausgegeben wird. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jun/18/countries-are-drowning-climate-expert-calls-for-urgent-rethink-on-scale-of-aid-for-developing-worldexpert:
Beim Pariser Klima-Finanzgipfel wurden nur wenige Entlastungen für den globalen Süden beschlossen worden. Die Weltbank hat 100 Milliarden Dollar Finanzierung pro Jahr zugesagt. Einige Staaten bemühen sich um internationale Steuern zur Finanzierung von Anpassung und Klimaschutz. Ein Durchbruch bei der Verschuldung wurde nicht erreicht. In Einzelfällen wird auf die Rückzahlung von Schulden verzichtet. Ein Verzicht auf fossile Energien wurde nicht diskutiert.
93% der Länder, die am verwundbarsten durch die Klimakrise sind, sind bereits überschuldet oder stehen kurz davor. Trotzdem sind bisher Kredite das Hauptinstrument der Klimafinanzierung. Damit verschärft sich die Schuldenkrise vor allem vieler afrikanischer Staaten. Sie ist eines der Hauptthemen des Pariser Klimafinanz-Gipfels. Hintergrund-Bericht der Libération mit vielen vertiefenden Informationen. https://www.liberation.fr/international/afrique/quinze-ans-apres-lafrique-rattrapee-par-la-dette-20230622_FC3LKPPATFCXDIGC4FS626ZE4E/
Oxfam: Climate Finance Shadow Report 2033 https://www.oxfam.org/en/research/climate-finance-shadow-report-2023
Hintergrundinformationen zum Pariser Gipfel zur Klimafinanzierung, der in dieser Woche stattfinden wird. Wichtig ist vor allem, ob bei dieser Konferenz tatsächlich Schritte in Richtung auf eine Reform der Finanzierung der Länder des globalen Südens unternommen werden, wozu ein Schuldenerlass und eine Veränderung von Kreditvergabe ebenso gehören wie eine neue Definition der Rollen der Weltbank und des internationalen Währungsfonds.
Vor dem Klimafinanz Gipfel in Paris ruft Kristalina Georgieva, Chefin des internationalen Währungsfonds, dazu aufgerufen, die Kreditbedingungen für Länder des globalen Südens, die von der Klimakrise betroffen sind, zu verbessern. Eines wichtiges Element seien Klima-Swaps, bei denen ein Teil von Zinsen oder Rückzahlungen für Maßnahmen gegen die Klimakrise verwendet wird. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jun/20/climate-crisis-hit-poor-countries-should-have-debt-relief-says-imf-chief
Das von der britischen Regierung selbst eingesetzte Climate Change Committee hat die Klimapolitik Großbritanniens als völlig unzureichend kritisiert. Das Land habe seine führende Position bei der Dekarbonisierung verloren und handele in einigen Bereichen (z.B. Verkehr, Heizungen, Dekarbonisierung der Industrie, Propagierung einer emissionsarmen Lebensweise) in einer völlig inakzeptablen Weise.
Bericht des Climate Change Committees: https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/2023-progress-report-to-parliament/
Der Europäische Rechnungshof bezweifelt in einem neuen, alarmierenden Gutachten, dass die EU ihre Klimaziele bis 2030 erreichen wird. So sei die Finanzierung der Dekarbonisierung, vor allem in der Privatwirtschaft, nicht gesichert.
https://taz.de/Rechnungshof-schlaegt-Alarm/!5942983/
Pressaussendung zum Bericht des Europäischen Rechnungshofs: https://www.eca.europa.eu/en/news/NEWS-SR-2023-18
Die Klimawandel-Leugnung verlagert sich in konservativen Medien zunehmend vom evidence scepticism, der die Tatsache der menschlich verursachten globalen Erhitzung in Frage stellt, zum response scepticism, der die soziale Verträglichkeit der Maßnahmen gegen die Klimakrise bezweifelt. In den Mainstream-Medien sind Klimawandel-Leugnung und false bias*, die neutrale Gegenüberstellung wissenschaftlicher und klimaskeptischer Positionen, in den letzten Jahren stark zurückgegangen Der Standard stellt zusammenfassend wissenschaftliche Arbeiten zur Klimawandel-Leugnung in Massenmedien dar.
Die EU beweggt sich bei der Dekarbonisierung in die richtige Richtung, aber zu langsam, um bis 2050 CO<sub>2-Neutralität zu erreichen. Ein Bericht des neu gegründeten Climate Neutrality Observatory fordert mehr Tempo auf fast allen Handlungsfeldern und wirkungsvollere Monitoring-Prozesse.
State of EU progress to climate neutrality: https://climateobservatory.eu/report/state-eu-progress-climate-neutrality
This a summary of the conference, and the key takeaways for me are:
Dr Sokhna Thiam, from the African Population and Health Research Center in Nairobi, Kenya, added that water-borne enteric diseases are among the “primary expected health impacts” of climate change.
Basically climate changes makes the leading cause of child deaths much worse
Die FDP vertritt bekannte Positionen der Gegner wirksamen Klimaschutzes. Sie sind inspieriert von libertärer Propaganda, wie sie die Koch-Brüder und andere in den USA sehr wirkungsvoll betrieben haben. Besonders der FDP-Politiker Frank Schäffler, der mitentscheidend für die Blockade des deutschen Heizungsgesetzes war, gehört zu einem Netzwerk, das mit den US-Netzwerken zur Verhinderung von Klimaschutz kooperiert und ähnliche Finanziers hat. Christian Stöcker stellt die Hintergründe in diesem Spiegelartikel dar.
Die deutsche Bundesregierung hat das abgeschwächte Klimaschutzgesetz beschlossen, über das nun der Bundestag befinden muss. In dem Gesetz geht man vor allem auf Druck der FDP von den verpflichtenden Zielen für einzelne Sektoren, etwa den Verkehr, ab. Die Sektorziele waren bei Verkehr und Wohnen bisher nie erreicht worden. Außer bei der Verantwortung der einzelnen Ministerien für Emissionsreduktionen gibt es auch laxere Regeln beim Monitoring und den vorgeschriebenen Reaktionen auf Unterschreitung von festgesetzten Zielen. https://taz.de/Beschluss-des-Kabinetts/!5939063/
taz-Interview mit Alison Schultz zu Debt for Nature Swaps und anderen Instrumenten der Klimafinanzierung für Länder des globalen Südens.
Bei der Frühjahrstagung der Weltbank und des internationalen Währungsfonds ist die Klimakrise ein zentrales Thema. Die Reformvorschläge vor allem für die Weltbank gehen voraussichtlich nicht weit genug, um ärmeren Ländern einen wirksamen Kampf gegen die globale Erhitzung zu erlauben. https://taz.de/IWF-und-Weltbank-auf-Fruehjahrstagung/!5924846/
Die britische Energy Transition Commission hat errechnet, dass jährlich 130 Milliarden Dollar nötig sind, um die Abholzung der am meisten bedrohten Regenwälder wirksam zu stoppen - zusätzlich zu wirksamen Verboten. Zur Zeit werden aber nur 2-3 Milliarden Dollar dazu ausgegeben. Das Geld ist vor allem für wirtschaftliche Alternativen nötig und konkrete z.T durch CO2-Steuern aufgebracht werden. Auf Dauer würde ein wirksamer Waldschutz, der nötig ist, um die Erhitzung der Erde zu stoppen, eher eine Billion Dollar erfordern. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/19/dont-fool-yourself-billions-more-needed-to-protect-tropical-forests-warns-new-report-aoe
Mit der ENI wird zum ersten Mal auch in Italien eine Firma dafür angeklagt, dass sie für mehr Verbrauch von fossilen Brennstoffen warb, obwohl ihr die klimarisiken bereits seit 1970 bekannt waren. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/09/italian-oil-firm-eni-lawsuit-alleging-early-knowledge-climate-crisis
California Legislation Would Force Corporate Polluters to Come Clean
So this forces Scope 3 in California, even if the rest of the country doesnt go ahead with it
For now, we haven’t included emissions relating to loans and investments in our Scope 3 carbon footprint breakdown as these are worked out separately with the Partnership for Carbon Accounting Financials (PCAF). We were the first UK digital bank to join PCAF, which asks members to calculate emissions from loans and investments by following industry best practice
so this something like induced carbon emissions from the activity enabled by the investment?
2022 lag die Durchschnittstemperatur in Europa 2,3 Grad über dem vorindustriellen Mittel Punkt kein Kontinent heizt sich so schnell auf wie Europa. Das geht aus einem neuen Bericht von Copernicus und World Meteorological Organisation hervor, der auch auf das schnelle Wachstum der Erneuerbaren in Europa eingeht. https://taz.de/Daten-zur-Klimakrise/!5942276/
In vielen Ländern, außer in Deutschland unter anderem in Spanien und in Großbritannien, werden Meteorologen, die über das zunehmend wärmere Wetter und seine Folgen und Ursachen berichten, Opfer von Hass in sozialen Medien, der bis zu Morddrohungen gehen kann. https://taz.de/Drohungen-gegen-Meteorologinnen/!5937563/
China’s power market remains primarily coal-fueled. Coal made up 61% of electricity generation in 2022, while wind and solar power – despite making up a growing proportion of power capacity – accounted for only 14% of generation.
Even with all the massive growth in solar, renewables make up only about a 6th of the grid generation
The average price for a solar panel delivered in the United States was 38 cents per watt as of June 7, which is double the global average, according to BloombergNEF and PV InfoLink. The U.S. price has been about the same, going up or down just a penny or two, since last fall.
Wow, so much more?!
This move was heavily pushed for by the three-party coalition’s smallest member, the Free Democrats who are in charge of the transport ministry. This means if a target in one sector such as industry, transport, or buildings is missed, another sector can compensate for it.
Everything I read about the FDP basically seems like they're absolute wreckers when it comes to climate Actiom, just so rich people can keep driving their petrol powered porches.
Auf der Bonner Vorbereitungskonferenz für die COP28 ist es nicht gelungen, Fortschritte bei den wichtigsten Konferenzthemen festzuschreiben. Die Öl- und Gas produzierenden Lânder, aber auch die BRICS-Staaten haben kein Interesse, über Klimaschutz zu sprechen. Staaten des globalen Südens erreichten keinen Durchbruch beim Thema Loss and Damage. https://www.tagesschau.de/wissen/klima/klimakonferenz-bonn-102.html
Interview mit Niklas Höhne: https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/video/video-1208258.html
Im ersten Jahr nach der Invasion der Ukraine im Februar 2022 hat Großbritannien für 19,3 Milliarden Pfund Öl und Gas aus anderen autoritären Petrostaaten als Russland bezogen. Eine Analyse von Desmog ergibt, dass Großbritannien in diesem Jahr für 125,7 Milliarden Pfund fossile Brennstoffe importiert und damit zum ersten Mal die 100-Milliarden-Grenze überschritten hat, obwohl eine Reduktion des Verbrauchs von Öl und Gas dringend nötig ist. Trotz des Embargos verkaufte auch Russland eine Rekordmenge an Öl in diesem Jahr. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jun/09/193bn-of-fossil-fuels-imported-by-uk-from-authoritarian-states-in-year-since-ukraine-war
Ultimately, I’m reminded of the umbrella organisation Stop Climate Chaos that formed in 2005. By 2009, all that its diverse membership could agree on (and this after much negotiation) was a march called the Wave which happened in December to coincide with the UN climate summit in Copenhagen. The numbers on that march? In the same ballpark as the Big One: about 50,000 people. And after the Wave there was only a trickle, for many years.
What happened to these and why? my guess is that it was hard to breakthrough to the broader public on a complex long-term topic.
Die Waldbrände in Kanada haben im ersten Halbjahr 2023 mehr weit vernichtet als im gesamten bisherigen Rekordjahr 2021. Die Rauchwolken haben inzwischen die norwegische Küste erreicht. Die Brände haben inzwischen 90 Millionen zusätzliches CO2 imitiert. Die Vibration berichtet ausführlich über die Zusammensetzung des rauchs und die damit verbundenen Gesundheitsrisiken.
Durch die Erwärmung sinkt die Menge an CO2, die tropischen Regenwälder aufnehmen. Dieser Feedback-Mechanismus wird von vielen Klimamodellen nicht berücksichtigt. Eine neue Studie zeigt, dass er- wir die zunehmenden Waldbrände - dafür sorgen könnte, dass die globale Erhitzung noch schneller voranschreitet als bisher angenommen.
ble to pay $170tn in climate reparations by 2050 to ensure targets to curtail climate breakdown are met, a new study calculates.
Eine neue Studie hat erstmals berechtigt, wieviele Klima-Reparationen die Industrieländer, die die meisten Emissionen verursacht haben, an Staaten des globalen Südens bezahlen müssten. In der Summe sind es 170 Billionen US-Dollar. Berechnet wird, welchen wirtschaftlichen Verlust ärmere Länder ausgleichen müssen, weil ihnen fossile Energien nicht mehr zur Verfügung stehen. Daei wird der Verbrauch seit 1060 zugrundegelegt. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jun/05/climate-change-carbon-budget-emissions-payment-usa-uk-germany
it is beyond an emergency it's the biggest thing we need to do today it's bigger than climate change that the former Chief business Officer 00:01:04 of Google X an AI expert and best-selling author he's on a mission to save the world from AI before it's too late
Is That Climate Change? The Science of Extreme Event Attribution
Congressional Research Service R47583 June 1, 2023
PR-Beauftragte der Vereinigten Arabischen Emirate und des COP-Präsidenten Sultan Al Jaber haben systematisch versucht, die Wikipedi- Informationen über Al Jaber zu manipulieren. Dabei soll der Ölminister der Emirate als Vorkämpfer der Energiewende dargestellt werden. Hinweise auf Investitionen in neue fossil-projekte, die mit dem Pariser Abkommen nicht vereinbar sind, und mit Investoren wie Blackrock vereinbart wurden, werden getilgt.
This is how wealthy individuals or corporations translate their economic power into political and cultural power
Climate Denialism funding
Die französische Regierung legt einen Plan vor, um die Treibhausgasemissionen bis 2030 um 55% zu reduzieren. Nach Meinung von Umweltorganisationen sind die Maßnahmen noch immer zu unkonkret. https://www.liberation.fr/politique/voitures-usines-chaudieres-logement-le-gouvernement-presente-ses-premiers-objectifs-pour-reduire-les-emissions-de-co2-20230522_LBBEA4RRQRAKNCAL3XGCBBO3BY/
Climate experts criticised the G7 group of advanced economies for failing to commit to tougher action on fossil fuels after Germany and Japan prevailed on the continued use of gas and coal respectively.
Die G7-Staaten haben sich nicht auf konsequentere Schritte zur Dekarbonisierung verständigt. Vor allem Japan und Deutschland haben in Hiroshima klare Aussagen zuum Verzicht auf Gas und Kohle verhindert. https://www-ft-com.ezp.lib.cam.ac.uk/content/18ae7257-dd02-4965-9de9-faec5e339be2
G7-Communique: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/05/20/g7-hiroshima-leaders-communique/
Die Waldbrände in Alberta haben die Öl- und Gasproduktion aus Ölsanden unterbrochen und den Ölpreis nach oben getrieben. Waldbrände, die durch die globale Erhitzung zunehmen, werden voraussichtlich immer mehr auch zu einem Risikon für die Produktion fossiler Brennstoffe. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/17/climate/canada-wildfires-fracking-oil-gas.html
Auf Twitter werden seriöse Limawissenschaftler:innen gezielt angegriffen und diffamiert, oft von bezahlten und deshalb höher getränkten Accounts aus. Elon Musk hat die Bemühungen, vertrauenswürdige Inhalte erkennbar zu machen, gestoppt und die Zuständigen entlassen. Der Guardian hat bedienende Wissenschaftler:innen Interviewt und berichtet über eine Global Witness-Studie.
Bidens Inflation Reduction Act löst offenbar wesentlich mehr Investitionen in Erneuerbare aus als zunächst erwartet. Angekündigt sind Investitionen von mindestens 150 Milliarden USD.Damit werden aber auch deutlich mehr Steuereinnahmen in Subventionen dieser Energien fließen, was zu heftigen Konflikten mit den Republikanern führt. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/03/business/ira-climate-tax-breaks-biden.html
Die April-Hitzewelle in Spanien, Portugal und Nordafrika lässt sich auf die globale Erhitzung zurückführen. Sie folgte auf eine mehrjährige Dürre. Die World Weather Attribution Group hat errechnet, dass ein solches Ereignis in der vorindustriellen Zeit so unwahrscheinlich war, dass es praktisch nicht zu ihm kommen konnte. Die Steigerung der Extremtemperaturen ist dabei schneller, als es die Klimamodelle voraussagen. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/05/april-mediterranean-heatwave-almost-impossible-without-climate-crisis
PA zur Studie: https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extreme-april-heat-in-spain-portugal-morocco-algeria-almost-impossible-without-climate-change/
Ein Bericht von Umwelt-Organisationen und des Center for Countering Digital Hate ergibt, dass Google nach wie vor viel Geld mit Anzeigen in der Umgebung von Inhalten von Klimleugnern verdient. 2021 hatte Google versprochen, auf solche Werbung zu verzichten. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/02/technology/google-youtube-disinformation-climate-change.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Skeptical_Environmentalist
tangentially mentioned in the Dan Allosso Book Club 2023-04-29
Die World Weather Attribution Group hat in einer Studie nachgewiesen, dass die große Dürre an Horn von Afrika ein Ergebnis der Erhitzung der Erde durch Treibhausgase ist. Von der Dürre sind 50 Millionen Menschen direkt und weitere 100 Millionen indirekt betroffen. Ohne die Erhöhung der Temperaturen hätten dieselben Regenverhältnisse nicht zu einer Dürre geführt. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/27/human-driven-climate-crisis-fuelling-horn-of-africa-drought-study
Zwei neue Studien zeigen, dass der Kohlebergbau in der Lausitz und die deutsche Verkehrspolitik nicht mit dem 1,5 Grad-Ziel vereinbar sind. https://taz.de/Studien-zu-Lausitz-und-Verkehr/!5927715/
Opinion: This is how law leads non-state actors to decarbonise
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Climate Cardinals
Bericht von Bloomberg Green über grüne Investitionen von Venture-Kapitalisten. Im Vordergrund stehen - oft mit öffentlicher Beteiligung - nicht mehr die schon eingeführten Technologien zur Energieerzeugung sondern Elektrifizierung neuer Bereiche und auch das Speichern von CO2. 2022 würden ca. 70 Milliarden USD venture Capital und insgesamt 652 Milliarden in Climate Tech investiert. Der International Renewable Energy Agency zufolge müssen sich die Investitionen jährlich vervierfachen. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-climate-tech-startups-where-to-invest/?srnd=green&leadSource=uverify%20wall
Präsident Biden will in 5 Jahren insgesamt 500 Millionen Dollar für ein Programm zum Schutz des brasilianischen Regenwalds ausgeben. Der Plan stößt auf den Widerstand der Republikaner im Kongress, die die Finanzierung von Klimaschutz außerhalb der USA ablehnen. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/20/climate/biden-amazon-deforestation-climate.html
Mit einem weitreichenden Gesetz hat das EU-Parlament den Emissionshandel auf große Sektoren ausgeweitet, die Bestimmungen zu Zertifikaten verschärft und Abgaben für Importeaus Ländern mit niedrigeren CO2-Preisen beschlossen. https://taz.de/Massive-Ausweitung-des-Emissionshandels/!5929146/
Here I estimate the global inequality of individual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions between 1990 and 2019 using a newly assembled dataset of income and wealth inequality, environmental input-output tables and a framework differentiating emissions from consumption and investments.
Why climate change is an LGBTQI rights issue
Nothing more queer than nature | Brigitte Baptiste | TEDxRíodelaPlata
Queering Climate Change: Exploring the Influence of LGBTQ+ Identity on Climate Change Belief and Risk Perceptions*
We connect you with grassroots climate change solutions.
Climate change and the ever-growing environmental crisis are a collective action problem.
Die britische Regierung streicht den höchsten diplomatischen Posten für Klimapolitik. Fachleute sind über diesen rückwärtsgewandten Schritt entsetzt. Der neue britische Energy Security Plan reicht nicht aus, um die Pariser Klimaziele zu erreichen. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/13/uk-accused-of-backwards-step-for-axing-top-climate-diplomat-role
Climate change: How to talk to a denier by Merlyn Thomas & Marco Silva
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/02/opinion/climate-change-deniers.html
The most efficient route toward enacting such policy, the authors argue, lies not in convincing deniers to believe in climate change but in galvanizing those who already do.
In a 2015 study published in PLOS One, Maibach and colleagues found that telling people that experts agreed on climate change increased the chances that those individuals would accept that climate change was happening, was human-caused, and presented a real threat. Extra encouraging: That strategy was also particularly influential on Republicans, though liberals might also need a nudge.
For many skeptics, Neha Thirani Bagri has written in Quartz, delineating the myriad potential harms of unmitigated climate change is not an effective strategy. Instead, it can be more productive to illustrate the potential benefits that mitigation may carry. She writes:A comprehensive study published in 2015 in Nature surveyed 6,000 people across 24 countries and found that emphasizing the shared benefits of climate change was an effective way of motivating people to take action — even if they initially identified as deniers. For example, people were more likely to take steps to mitigate climate change if they believe that it will produce economic and scientific development. Most importantly, these results were true across political ideology, age, and gender.
research has found that conservatives are more likely to support a pro-environmental agenda when presented with messages containing themes of patriotism and defending the purity of nature.
the best predictor of whether we agree with the science is simply where we fall on the political spectrum.
Dr. Katharine Hayhoe, climate scientist at Texas Tech University
the referent "the science" is "the [climate] science" in this context
How to Convince a Climate Change Skeptic | The Brink | Boston University by Andrew Thurston
According to the researchers, proximity was tied to certainty. The farther away a climate-related event was perceived to be, the less certain viewers were that humans were causing it. That made them feel less responsible for doing something about it and “lowered their own perceived ability to influence global climate change outcomes,” says Tsay-Vogel, a COM assistant professor of communication.
How We Can Take Effective Climate Action Right Now
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Under the "More on Philosophies of Copyright" section, I recommended adding the scholarly article by Chinese scholar Peter K. Yu that explains how Chinese philosophy of Yin-Yang can address the contradictions in effecting or eliminating intellectual property laws. One of the contradictions is in intellectual property laws protecting individual rights while challenging sustainability efforts for future generations (as climate change destroys more natural resources.
Yu, Peter K., Intellectual Property, Asian Philosophy and the Yin-Yang School (November 19, 2015). WIPO Journal, Vol. 7, pp. 1-15, 2015, Texas A&M University School of Law Legal Studies Research Paper No. 16-70, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2693420
Below is a short excerpt from the article that details Chinese philosophical thought on IP and sustainability:
"Another area of intellectual property law and policy that has made intergenerational equity questions salient concerns the debates involving intellectual property and sustainable development. Although this mode of development did not garner major international attention until after the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, the Yin-Yang school of philosophy—which “offers a normative model with balance, harmony, and sustainability as ideals”—provides important insight into sustainable development."
Das Interview mit dem UAE-Ölminister, #Adnoc-Chef und #COP28-Präsidenten Sultan Al Jaber ist ein Paradebeispiel dafür, wie die Fossil-Branche den Kampf gegen die durch sie verursachte Klimakatastrophe hijackt. Dazu gehört es auch - verkörpert durch diesen Minister, der gleichzeitig Firmenchef ist - das hochpolitische Öl- und Gasgeschäft als Business-as-usual auszugeben.
Title: How Alive Is 1.5? Part One – A Small Budget, Shrinking Fast
Author: - Kevin Anderson - Dan Calverley
Key Messages - For a 50:50 chance of staying below 1.5°C, we’re using up the remaining carbon budget at around 1% every month. - Following current national emissions pledges (NDCs) to 2030 puts the temperature commitments within the Paris Agreement beyond reach. - Claims that 1.5°C is now inevitable also assign “well below 2°C” to the scrapheap. - An ‘outside chance’ of not exceeding 1.5°C remains viable, but ongoing fossil fuel use is rapidly undermining it. - The few credible pathways for an outside chance of 1.5°C are not being discussed. This is an active choice by policymakers and experts, who have largely dismissed equity-based social change.
This example illustrates the potential for an unintended consequence to move between categories and demonstrates that there are times when it is necessary to review and reflect. What is considered known and knowable changes over time: has the state of knowledge developed or an unintended consequence been identified?
// - This is the critical question - Looking at history, can we see predictive patterns - when it makes sense to stop and take questions of the unknown seriously - rather than steaming ahead into uncharted territory? - We might find that society did not follow science's call - for applying the precautionary principle - because profits were just too great - the profit bias at play - profit overrides safety, health and wellbeing
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released its “synthesis” report summarizing the findings of its sixth assessment (the last occurred in 2014). The findings are painfully familiar: the world is falling far short of its emission goals, and without rapid reductions this decade, the planet is likely to shoot to beyond 1.5 or even 2 degrees Celsius of warming this century (we are at 1.1 degrees now). We seem to be stuck in a doom-loop news cycle where scientific reports create headlines, and earnest climate commentators insist the new report represents a true “wake-up call” for action, and then . . . emission keep rising. They hit a record once again in 2022. The world of climate politics appears to exist in two completely different worlds. There is a largely liberal and idealist world of climate technocrats where science informs policy, and there is the real, material capitalist world of power.
“I think we’re on the cusp of a massive transformation . . . ultimately, the market is going to make the decisions, not the government.”
Indeed, - and the market could very well make the decision - that will exceed planetary boundaries - after all, the highest priorities are the lowest cost goods - those already well established in the market place by reliance on fossil fuels, - that can maintain an individual's life
He said he and Arkush “went through every possible objection” and found no legal barrier for prosecutors to raise criminal charges against companies that he said have lied about their knowledge of the danger of burning fossil fuels. “What’s really probably stopping them is that no one has done it before,” Braman said. “The level of culpability and the extent of the harm is so massive that it’s not the kind of thing that prosecutors are used to prosecuting.”
In addition, at least two justices have ties to the oil industry writ large. Justice Amy Coney Barrett’s father was a Shell attorney for nearly three decades and served in leadership positions with the American Petroleum Institute, and Justice Samuel Alito owns stock in ConocoPhillips and Phillips 66 (Alito recused himself from the Baltimore case but Barrett did not).
Title: Climate Homicide: Prosecuting Big Oil for Climate Deaths
Author:
Abstract
// - This article provides an intersectional study of: - climate change, - collective action research - terror management theory / mortality salience - it explains the beneficial impacts of non-rational relational ontology and recommends the use of ritual practices based on this as a way to promote pro-environmental behavior
//
Knowledge about problems on this scale brings paralyzing guilt, fear, and a sense of helplessness
// in other words - presenting knowledge alone can trigger a host of counter-productive behaviiors
Ads, Andrew and James discuss where the the climate movement is right now, how deep time plays into the effects we are having on the planet, when good people do bad things because of poor systems and what happens next if 1.5C fails.
31:00 Shell oil carbon offset greenwashing scam - the sky zero proposal - Shell claims they can offset all the O+G emissions out of the ground - it is preposterous - there's not enough land on earth when you tally up all the carbon offset afforestation schemes
32:30 Neo-colonialism
37:00 Deferred Emission Reduction
40:00 can we do anything within the extractive capitalist system?
44:22: Stop burning fossil fuels
47:00 economic growth prevents real change
51:00 Degrowth making headway
52:10 Is there a positive future scenario - The role of solidarity
Seit dem Beginn von Satelliten-Beobachtungen vor vier Jahrzehnten ist das antarktische Meereis noch nie so geschrumpft wie im Februar 2023.
From TED Countdown London 2022
To restrain global warming, we know we need to drastically reduce pollution. The very next step after that: using both natural and technological solutions to trap as much excess carbon dioxide from the air as possible. Enter Orca, the world's first large-scale direct air capture and storage plant, built in Iceland by the team at Climeworks, led by climate entrepreneur Jan Wurzbacher. This plant is capable of removing 4,000 tons of carbon dioxide from the air each year. With affordability and scalability in mind, Wurzbacher shares his vision for what comes after Orca, the future of carbon removal tech -- and why these innovations are crucial to stop climate change.
Coernicus-Daten zum Sommer
Discussion on how to downscale the climate change boundary has now become a political and equity issue more than a scientific issue. For example, how does one decide the allocation of the CO2 emissions? Should the past emissions be considered? Should the amount of emissions account for the current welfare of the countries, allowing less developed countries to emit more? Or, is it sufficient to calculate a global per capita value that is the same everywhere?
Classic issue
At COP27, governments agreed to create a “contribution unit” as part of the establishment of new carbon markets under the Paris Agreement - a clear sign of support for this evolution in claims
This is the first time I have come aceoss a "contribution unit"
Auseinandersetzungen in Frankreich über die "Zonen mit schwachen Emissionen": Verbotszonen für Dieselfahrzeuge, die dabei nach Emissionsmenge klassifiziert werden. Die Rechten fordern den Verzicht auf diese Zonen, die Linken soziale Begleitmaßnahmen - wobei aber die Rhetorik teilweise ähnlich ist
subtitle: why most climate scientists can’t tell the truth (in public) Author: Jackson Damien
This is a good article written from a psychotherapist's perspective,
HOW CAN CLIMATE SCIENTISTS ALLOW THEMSELVES TO TELL THE TRUTH?
Amis de la Terre, Oxfam France und Notre affaire à tous verklagen die größte europäische Bank, BNP Parisbas, wegen ihrer Verantwortung für die globale Erhitzung.
Most future climate scenarios envisage large-scale deployment of so-called “negative emissions,” where we suck CO2 out of the atmosphere in order to keep warming below 2°C. One proposed method for achieving that is “enhanced weathering”—accelerated silicate weathering done by grinding up silicate rock and spreading it on agricultural fields to react with CO2 from the air and fertilize plants at the same time. Brantley’s work shows that for such efforts to be successful, those fields would need a good supply of water and—crucially—would probably need to be plowed regularly to expose fresh minerals to the air. “If you're not going to be turning it over, you'll start to precipitate secondary minerals, and… most of the surface area could be occluded from reaction,” said Brantley.
So basically enhanced weathering is much less likely to help us, as it would largely scab over, rather than expose the rest of the minerals
Over geological time, those landscape proportions have changed in response to shifting tectonic plates. This has changed how efficient silicate weathering has been at removing the CO2 emitted by volcanoes, thereby allowing high CO2 levels and warm climates at times, like in the Cretaceous, or lower CO2 levels and a cool climate when plate tectonics was building lots of “kinetic-limited” mountainous landscapes, like over the last few million years.
Wow, so when there are more mountains, more CO2 is drawn down as there's more terrain to expose the rock for weathering
The most telling real-world results came from the final stock count. For example, no Felix product is more beloved than its best-selling meatballs, yet with customers encouraged to make decisions on climate value, they remained on the shelves, whereas Felix’s new, plant-based meatball alternatives had sold out. Shoppers had learned that the classic dish they had eaten since childhood might not, after all, be the best option for their own children’s future.
The way in which shoppers were presented with practical climate information was repeatedly commented on as a brilliantly simple idea that people felt ought to be the norm in food retail. Plus, we saw repeat visits – parents so impressed by the concept’s educative value that they came back a second time with their children.As one shopper shared: “I didn’t expect this when walking in. The visuals with the three different bags explained everything so well. I learned so much more compared to, say, a lecture.”
The results told us Felix’s demographic really wanted to shop for climate-friendly food brands, but found the sustainability information too confusing and – perhaps as a result – believed sustainable grocery shopping to be too expensive.Our strategy was clear: Give shoppers better information on the climate impact of Felix products and, in the process, demonstrate how easy it is to make climate-friendly choices when products are clearly labelled. We called it The Climate Store (Klimatbutiken) – the world’s first grocery shop in which the ‘price’ of food would be based on its carbon footprint.
a new and insidious tactic is threatening to undermine our efforts to build a more sustainable future: climate delay
= climate delay - redirecting responsibility onto individuals - advocating non-transformative solutions - focusing on negatives of climate action - wokewashing and white saviorism - doomism - giving up
dismissives
= definition - dismissives - this is the most common form of climate denialism. - It isn't aggressive, but passive - dismissives are aware of climate change but - don't care - avoid it altogether
Climate deniers are victims not villains
Make the case that the status quo is inequitable
Change is tough but needed. It may not directly help those who participate in surveys of campus climate.
two social drivers actively impair global efforts to achieve 1.5 C. Those are corporate responses and global consumption patterns
Most of them are, in general, moving in the right direction. They just aren’t aggressive enough yet to be consistent with the kind of transformative social change required to achieve the 1.5 C target.
Hartmut Grassl u.a. über den Unterschied von Klimaneutralität und Treibhausgasneutralität, über Suffizienz und Klimamodellierung.
Vernichtende Bestandsaufnahme zur österreichischen Klimapolitik. Gute Darstellung der Schlüsselrolle des Klimaschutzgesetzes.
To provide an indication of the projected timing of climate depar-ture under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, we havedeveloped an index that determines the year when the values of agiven climatic variable exceed the bounds of historical variabilityfor a particular location (Fig. 1a).
I agree as I have heard from many young people that they aren't voting because they don't trust the politicians. They hear their promises and then when they get elected they don't deliver on those promises, so young people feel helpless to change the system.
Forty-one per cent of people globally see climate change as a ‘very serious threat’ to their country
41% of the global population - see climate change as a serious threat
The Lloyd's Register Foundation World Risk Poll
TITLE: Global Climate Change Poll
In the first edition of the Hamburg Climate Fu-tures Outlook published in 2021
= First Edition of Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook (2021)
= Second Edition of Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook (2023)
Lacking thefeasibility of a robust probabilistic assessment, wehave developed an alternative framework to assessthe plausibility of climate futures (Chapter 2).
based on present knowledge of social drivers andphysical processe
climate futures based upon: - social drivers - physical processes
Hamburg Climate FuturesOutlook
= Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2023
Among the many possible climatic futures, not allare plausible.
Over 50% of people reported feeling powerless or helpless in the previously mentioned study.
The survey — the largest of its kind — asked 10,000 young people in 10 countries how they felt about climate change and government responses to it.The results, released in a preprint on 14 September1, found that most respondents were concerned about climate change, with nearly 60% saying they felt ‘very worried’ or ‘extremely worried’. Many associated negative emotions with climate change — the most commonly chosen were ‘sad’, ‘afraid’, ‘anxious’, ‘angry’ and ‘powerless’ (see ‘Climate anxiety’). Overall, 45% of participants said their feelings about climate change impacted their daily lives.
real-life situations can be much more complicated, the authors’ model allows for the exact 25 percent tipping point number to change based on circumstances. Memory length is a key variable, and relates to how entrenched a belief or behavior is.
Agreements are subjected to climate agreements and not the other way around that could be 00:53:10 an option
!- policy recommendation : make all global trade agreements subject to legally binding climate agreements, not the other way around
we have individual capitalists who try 00:48:45 to make the most profit and this is linked to their capital and productivity so to achieve more in less time and 00:48:57 productivity is linked to energy [Music] the only source of energy to increase profit is carbon oil and gas and this has resulted in a change in our 00:49:15 atmosphere we have to put an entities if we wish to live in our planet can our capitalism do this based on the current data we won't be able to do so 00:49:28 therefore perhaps we should do the following reflection if capitalism is unable to do so either Humanity will die with it or 00:49:42 Humanity will overcome capitalism so that we can live in our planet
!- Urrego : Key Point - Can capitalism rapidly detour away from fossil fuels? The current data indicates no. So either Humanity does our it drops capitalism
you've had problems in your area where you tried to get legislation and the oil and gas industry came in and fought you right in my state same thing every piece 00:44:08 of pro-climate legislation at the national level the regional level the local level Municipal level the oil and gas industry and the coal industry they come in and fight it tooth and nail and 00:44:21 they use their legacy network of political influence and wealth to stop progress the rest of us have to reform these International institutions so that the people of this world and including 00:44:34 the young people of this world can say we are now in charge of our own destiny we're going to stop using the sky as an open sewer we're going to save the future and give people hope we can do it 00:44:47 and remember that political will is itself a renewable resource
!- oil and gas legislation : industry lawyers at every level
you've got a climate denier in charge of 00:42:13 the World Bank so why are you surprised that the World Bank is completely failing to do its job
!- world bank : leader is a climate denier
we are today concluding that we're outside even of the just boundary on climate
!- climate boundary : currently exceeding
within the next decade we are at risk of pushing ourselves outside of the safe 00:10:15 boundary of 1.5 degrees Celsius
!- 1.5 deg C boundary : at risk of exceeding in the next decade
if we continue with our greenhouse gas emissions then by 2070 as many as 3 00:03:25 billion people will live in uninhabitable zones and mostly in poorer countries and this basically means that these people who probably have the least contribution to the climate problem have 00:03:39 been the ones that are most exposed
!- quotable : 3 billion people at risk by 2070 - mostly people who has contributed the least to the problem
can have a pretty outsized carbon footprint and I'm wondering how you reconcile the vast amount of computational power necessary to accomplish this work and its negative impact on the environment and whether or not this is something you all are considering
adrienne maree brown wrote not long ago that there is an element of science fiction in climate action: “We are shaping the future we long for and have not yet experienced. I believe that we are in an imagination battle.”
This is how I've read SF for years, both near future and space opera. As mood board and thinking input.
adrienne maree brown https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adrienne_Maree_Brown in turn inspired by SF author Octavia Butler (have I read her xenogenesis trilogy?)
https://web.archive.org/web/20230112060303/https://www.theguardian.com/news/2023/jan/12/rebecca-solnit-climate-crisis-popular-imagination-why-we-need-new-stories Vgl [[We Need New Stories by Nesrine Malik]] wrt argumentation and types of narratives.
The moral vocabulary that climate activists and public health professionals use is not able to activate the moral and political imagination that effective ecological and health governance require. To respond to the recurring crises that are coming, the governance of complex societies must be able to reach the tap roots latent in their own moral ethos, politics, and motivational structures.
!- identification : of failings of current climate activists
People newly faced with the precarity of future expectations and the loss of attachments to habitual ways of life tighten their grip on them, no matter how objectively unsustainable, and turn toward blaming the other, the victims, rather than extending empathy and solidarity toward them.
!- good observation on psychology of confronting loss : climate change - when confronted with the loss of liberty (give me liberty or give me death), we tighten our grip<br /> - our climate denialism increases in proportion to the perceived degree of loss of liberty
Much of what they do can be done without eliciting the ire of nation-states. Bike shares, pedestrian zones, insulated buildings, renovated port facilities, congestion fees, car emission limits, furnace specifications, fuel upgrades (from oil to gas to alternative energy) and white paint roofs, for example, are only some of the innovations city officials can promote to effect significant reductions in emissions and pollutants.
!- cities actions : can be done without eliciting ire of nation state - bike shares - pedestrian zones - insulated buildings - renovated ports - congestion fees - car emission limits - furnace specifications - fuel upgrades - white paint roofs - cities are the right level for focusing on effective global climate action
here states have grown dysfunctional and sovereignty has become an obstacle to global democratic action—as when the United States (or China, France, or Canada) refuses to compromise its sovereignty by permitting the international monitoring of carbon emissions on its soil—cities have increasingly proven themselves capable of deliberative democratic action on behalf of sustainability, as they have actually done in intercity associations like the C-40 or ICLEI. If presidents and prime ministers cannot summon the will to work for a sustainable planet, mayors can. If citizens of the province and nation think ideologically and divisively, neighbors and citizens of the towns and cities think publicly and cooperatively.
!- claim : cities can mitigate corrupted democracy and foster global cooperation - ie. C40 or ICLEI (also Covenant of Mayors) - cities are not plagued by the problems of state actors who cannot reach any meaningful agreement at COP conferences
A deliberative democracy in which competent citizens participate in policy decisions about the long-term challenges facing their society is an ideal setting for confronting the threat of climate change. Democratic deliberation is designed to help selfish individuals reformulate their interests in the language of the communities to which they belong—to allow them to move from “me thinking” to “we thinking” and to substitute long-term, future-minded thinking for the short-term, present-minded, special-interest thinking. It allows private opinion to be shaped by shared belief and the discipline of inter-subjective (“scientific”) knowledge.
!- Key concept : deliberative democracy of competent, participative citizens driving long term policy decisions is ideal for confronting climate change - transform self-centered individual to group-centered - shift from Me to We (invert the M) - shift from short term to long term thinking - intersubjective scientific knowledge
Environmentalists say bulldozing the village to expand the Garzweiler mine would result in huge amounts of greenhouse gas emissions. The government and utility company RWE argue the coal is needed to ensure Germany's energy security.Police officers use water cannons on protesters in Luetzerath on Saturday. (Thilo Schmuelgen/Reuters)The regional and national governments, both of which include the environmentalist Green party, reached a deal with RWE last year allowing it to destroy the abandoned village in return for ending coal use by 2030, rather than 2038.Some speakers at Saturday's demonstration assailed the Greens, whose leaders argue that the deal fulfils many of the environmentalists' demands and saved five other villages from demolition.What on Earth?Why the reversal of a decades-old coal policy sparked controversy in Alberta"It's very weird to see the German government, including the Green party, make deals and compromise with companies like RWE, with fossil fuel companies, when they should rather be held accountable for all the damage and destruction they have caused," Thunberg said."My message to the German government is that they should stop what's happening here immediately, stop the destruction, and ensure climate justice for everyone."
Assuming the facts are correct and complete here, it's surprisingly naive of Thunberg to take this view. One unknown is whether the displaced villagers were suitably compensated for being evicted. Still, taking 8 years off the deadline to end coal use - that's a pretty massive win and could set the stage for even more in the future.
Finally, statistics should reinforce the fact that any patterning found cannot be explained as accidental.
It is possible that the variations in patterning may tell us about the relative timing of the data. Perhaps the earliest data points may have been anecdotal evidence that was improved over time.
Of course it could be the case that migrations, births, etc. may have shifted somewhat over time.
What does the general climate data from these areas and this time period show? Is there variability in this time period?
i think climate change is going to put a strong pressure in the sense that you know i think when people see more and more catastrophic climatic events you know i think attitudes toward globalization and attitudes toward inequality in general you know can change very quickly because 00:43:25 you know at some point i think people will not find it funny at all to have all these billionaires you know giving lessons using their private jet doing your space tourism et cetera you know at some point you know i think nobody is going to find this funny at all and there can be a very quick and and fast you know complete change in attitude following this
!- Thomas Piketty : climate change impacts on inequality - climate change extreme events can very quickly cause the public attitudes to the elites to deteriorate very rapidly
Brian Eno – "We need the creative industry to help inspire climate action"
!- Title : Brian Eno – "We need the creative industry to help inspire climate action"
While the average human is responsible for an estimated 5t 퐶푂2푒per year,2 the authors trained a Transformer (big) model [136] withneural architecture search and estimated that the training procedureemitted 284t of 퐶푂2. Training a single BERT base model (withouthyperparameter tuning) on GPUs was estimated to require as muchenergy as a trans-American flight.
Training a model cost 57 times the annual CO2 emissions of a single person.
Below, I pose four critical questions. How the Biden administration answers these questions will say a lot about whether Justice40 sets a new marker for environmental justice in the United States—or if the promise of Justice40 is squandered.
Follow developments with Justice40 and implications for climate justice movement.
Splooting, or more technically heat dumping, is a process through which animals stretch their hind legs back and lie on cooler surfaces to reduce their body heat. It’s commonly done by squirrels and sometimes, by dogs, and it’s no reason for concern, it’s just a sign that the animal is hot and trying to cool off.
https://www.zmescience.com/ecology/animals-ecology/why-animals-are-splooting-to-deal-with-the-heat/
Rising greenhouse gas concentrations have resulted in detectable trends in average climate (particularly temperature), but also in changes in the timing of key seasons in some locations and in daily weather variability, including extreme weather and climate events like heat waves and droughts [10,11,12]. It is primarily through these changes in weather and seasonality, rather than through gradual, long-term trends, that climate change is likely to influence malaria risk. These impacts on malaria could occur both directly, as optimum climate ranges and critical thresholds for vector and parasite development are crossed, and indirectly, as society grapples with the disruptive effects of changes in weather patterns and seasonal cycles.
Climate can influence malaria directly, through transmission dynamics, or indirectly, through myriad pathways including the many socioeconomic factors that underpin malaria risk. These indirect effects are largely unpredictable and so are not included in climate-driven disease models. Such models have been effective at predicting transmission from weeks to months ahead. However, due to several well-documented limitations, climate projections cannot accurately predict the medium- or long-term effects of climate change on malaria, especially on local scales. Long-term climate trends are shifting disease patterns, but climate shocks (extreme weather and climate events) and variability from sub-seasonal to decadal timeframes have a much greater influence than trends and are also more easily integrated into control programmes.
Trends in some regions are clear, but insect biology, climate quirks, and public health preparedness will determine whether outbreaks occur.
For effective vector control, the influence of climatic factors on vector-borne diseases should be studied since the mosquito vectors are also sensitive to the alterations in the climatic condition and the existing vector control approaches are inadequate to combat with the adverse effects of global warming.
By the mid-1990s, the Institute of Economic Affairs had extended its work on Risk Assessment (RA). More specifically, the head of IEA’s Environment Unit Roger Bate was interested in undermining the concept of “environmental risk”, especially in relation to key themes, such as climate change and pesticides, and second hand smoke.
Leaks show attempts to water down UN climate report, Greenpeace says Some countries tried to remove findings threatening their economic interests from an IPCC report, documents seen by Greenpeace have revealed. The report comes before a critical round of UN climate talks.
Government lobbying (economic interests) to water down UN climate report
A 2020 study by the European Union found that contrails and other non-CO2 aircraft emissions warm the planet twice as much as the carbon dioxide released by airplanes.
From the intermediate linked blog post:
Using a derivative metric of the Global Warming Potential (100), the GWP, aviation emissions are currently warming the climate at approximately three times the rate of that associated with CO2 emissions alone.
pp. 35-36 of EASA report for European Commission, (2020). Updated analysis of the non-CO2 climate impacts of aviation and potential policy measures pursuant to the EU Emissions Trading System Directive Article 30(4). https://eur-lex.europa.eu/resource.html?uri=cellar:7bc666c9-2d9c-11eb-b27b-01aa75ed71a1.0001.02/DOC_1&format=PDF
Skatten på arbete sänks med inriktning på låg- och medelinkomsttagare, liksom skatten på pension. För att stötta hushållen ytterligare sänks skatten på sparande. Hushållen kompenseras för de höga elpriserna och drivmedelspriserna sänks kraftigt, bland annat genom att reduktionsplikten sänks till EU:s miniminivå.
Den sista meningen är den enda som förklaras. Hur ska de förstnämnda sänkta skatterna kompenseras? Med andra ord, hur ska staten tjäna in pengar på skattesänkningarna?
Dessutom, reduktionspliktens sänkning är oerhört farlig ur klimatperspektiv.
Inget nämns om transporter.
Naturskyddsföreningen är starkt kritisk till den tillträdande regeringens programförklaring. – Jag känner mig både besviken och djupt oroad. Utifrån vad som hittills framkommer så verkar det vara väldigt tunt med politik som tar itu med miljöproblemen. Istället riskerar problemen att förvärras med de åtgärder som läggs fram, säger Karin Lexén, generalsekreterare Naturskyddsföreningen i ett pressmeddelande. Enligt programförklaringen ska miljöprövningen av vattenkraft pausas. – Det är oansvarigt. Omprövningen av den svenska vattenkraften genomförs för att förse kraftverken med moderna miljövillkor, det är ett måste för att Sverige ska kunna leva upp till sina internationella åtaganden om skydd av biologisk mångfald och EU:s vattendirektiv. Sverige har vid upprepade tillfällen fått kritik från EU-kommissionen i frågan, säger Karin Lexén.
Men förutom elektrifieringen nämns inget om transporter som står för en stor del av Sveriges nationella utsläpp, cirka en tredjedel. Det brukar lyftas fram som ett nyckelområde när klimatmål ska nås. – Jag är väldigt förvånad att transporter inte får ett enda ord i avtalet och närmast bestört över att det inte är ett av de sju prioriterade områden som lyftes fram, säger Mattias Goldmann, klimatexpert och en av grundarna till 2030-sekretariatet.
In a recent paper published in Nature Climate Change, scientists found that major sea-level rise from the melting of the Greenland ice cap is now ‘inevitable’ even if the burning of fossil fuels were to halt overnight. Using satellite observations of Greenland ice loss and ice cap from 2000 to 2019, the team found the losses will lead to a minimum rise of 27 cm regardless of climate change.
A great example of the lag that large, complex systems exhibit when responding to significant input changes.
Lag is something that humans are woefully weak at recognizing and understanding. This, and other systems concepts are what we need to add to the curriculum at all levels of education, to change this very significant shortcoming of "common knowledge".
Peter Kalmus, Data Scientist, Jet Propulsion Laboratory: [Update 23 August 2019: This comment was updated for clarity.] What science projects under plausible scenarios of human courses of action is varying degrees of further disruption of fundamental planetary life support systems (e.g. water, agriculture, ecosystems) needed to support the nearly 8 billion humans currently living on Earth. This disruption poses some degree of existential risk to civilization as we know it—with the amount of risk likely still depending on how rapidly we reduce radiative and ecological forcings—but these degrees of risk are not quantified with any certainty. Ice models have had difficulty projecting the melting rate of the Greenland ice sheet; predicting the mechanism of the collapse of civilization and the number of lives lost as a result is a far more complex problem, and there is no scientific consensus that six billion lives will be lost. On the other hand, models have tended to underestimate ice sheet melting, and model projections in general have been systematically “conservative.” I unfortunately don’t see how the possibility of six billion deaths can be ruled out with confidence, especially when the intrinsically unpredictable but real possibility of climate-related war (which could include nuclear weapons) is considered. In other words, Hallam’s claim is speculative, but given the depth and rapidity of anthropogenic change, so is confidently ruling it out. While I don’t agree that “science predicts” the death of six billion people, in my opinion Hallam’s broader warning has qualitative merit and in the context of a lay translation of risk his use of “six billion” might reasonably be interpreted as figurative, an illustration of a worst-case scenario (again, that I don’t think can be ruled out). Whether to interpret this claim literally or figuratively is a question perhaps best left to humanists. Given this ambiguity I judge it “unrateable.”
He is basically saying this is plausible. And his is the most sensible answer here by far IMO.
The whole point of "bad case" scenarios is that they involve feedback effects and breakdown of "civilization" as we know it.
This article as a whole is an illustration of the narrow, conventional thinking.
NB: i came here via https://passivehouseaccelerator.com/articles/building-our-solarpunk-future where they are citing this as evidence future won't be too bad:
For many of us, it’s all too easy to imagine the terrible, particularly as we witness the damage caused by just 1.2°C of global heating today. We’re also bombarded by Doomist messages.
For example, Roger Hallam, the co-founder of Extinction Rebellion, recently said this of climate change: “I am talking about the slaughter, death, and starvation of 6 billion people this century. That’s what the science predicts.”
Only that’s not what the science predicts. According to the fact-checker website, Climate Feedback: “Research shows that continuing climate change results in a broad array of serious threats to humans and other species. However, counter to Hallam’s statement, published studies have not predicted 6 billion human deaths this century and there is no credible mechanism referred to justify how this could happen.”
Leaving aside those far-right doubts about the existence of a climateproblem, any government that wanted to cut carbon emissions substantiallycould not avoid implementing much tougher emissions regulations andhigher business taxes. But any government that did so in advance of othergovernments would only force its corporations to move production andthousands of jobs elsewhere.
!- example : DGC - also, Yellow jackets in France and working class in Sri Lanka paralyzed their respective country due to rising fuel costs - the precariat class is threatened and are also caught in the wicked problem
Pollin: Neither negative emissions technologies nor nuclear power can likely contribute significantly to building an alternative global clean energy infrastructure. Indeed, it is more likely that they will create still more severe problems. Let’s start with nuclear.
Notes on some problems with continuing to use nuclear power instead of switching to clean power.
Renewable energy critics argue that wind and solar are not reliable sources because of their variability. Others argue that wind farms encroach on pristine environment and destroy a country’s natural habitat, as is the case with the installation of thousands of wind turbines on scores of Greek islands in the Aegean Sea. How would you respond to such concerns, and are there ways around them?
"Respondents across all countries were worried about climate change (59% were very or extremely worried and 84% were at least moderately worried). More than 50% reported each of the following emotions: sad, anxious, angry, powerless, helpless, and guilty. More than 45% of respondents said their feelings about climate change negatively affected their daily life and functioning, and many reported a high number of negative thoughts about climate change (eg, 75% said that they think the future is frightening and 83% said that they think people have failed to take care of the planet).
!- for : Social Tipping Points - Tipping Point Festival - Meaning crisis
one of the 00:10:51 things is that our brains were set up for dealing with about a hundred people at a time living by our wits hunting and gathering and dying in the same world we 00:11:03 were born into for hundreds of thousands of years there's no concept of progress in our genes we just don't have it but like all animals we have an enormous set 00:11:17 of genetic apparatus to make us good copers anything happens to us we can find a way of being resilient about it and adapting to it we're copers and 00:11:29 adapters and so when we come up against difficulties our tendency is to cope with these difficulties it's like working for a company go into a company 00:11:42 and the company seems sort of screwed up maybe you can quit you can cope but your chances of actually changing the company are very low because nobody will listen 00:11:56 to reason right that is not what the company is there for they are there for their a task this is something that engelbart the inventor of the mouse pointed out years ago that companies are 00:12:10 devoted to their area a task which is what they think they were about most companies do not have a very good be process which is supposed to look at the 00:12:21 a tasks and make them more efficient but almost no companies have a see process which questions the tasks are our goals still reasonable our processes still reasonable that's the last thing it gets 00:12:35 question
!- applies to : climate change - many are adopting and trying to take a coping strategy instead of one of fundamental change - if coping is the only strategy, it becomes a failing one when whole system change is required
how many people have seen curves that look like these progress against time right everywhere reading 00:48:14 scores test scores people love these yay oh no yay oh no it's bad because our 00:48:32 nervous system is only set up for relative change and in fact there's cause for cheering if that's the threshold but in fact for reading 00:48:43 threshold is this this is all oh no doesn't matter whether it goes up or not because there are many many things that where you have to get to the real 00:48:58 version of the thing before you're doing it at all in the 21st century it doesn't have help to read just a little bit you have to be fluent at it so this is a 00:49:09 huge problem and once you draw the threshold in there immediately converts this thing that looked wonderful into a huge qualitative gap and the gap is 00:49:20 widening and we have two concepts that are enemies of what we need to do perfect and better right so better is a 00:49:36 way of getting fake success we had improvement see it all the time it's the ultimate quarterly report we had improvements here and perfect is 00:49:51 tough to get in this world so both of those are really bad so what you want is what's actually needed and the exquisite skill here which I'm going to use these 00:50:06 two geniuses Thakur and Engels to labor it I'm going to call that the sweet spot the way you make progress here is you pick the thing that is just over that threshold that is qualitatively better 00:50:21 than all the rest of the crap you can do you can spend billions turning around and once you do that you widen up you give yourself a little blue plane to 00:50:34 operate in and for a while everything you do in there is something that is actually going to be meaningful
!- similar to : climate change solutions - Good metaphor for climate change progress
How Fast a Low Carbon Transition? Or: Is Vaclav Smil Wrong?
Title: How Fast a Low Carbon Transition? Or: Is Vaclav Smil Wrong? Author: Mark Trexler Date: May 21, 2022
!- for : comparison of green growth vs energy descent
a big setback for the Republican-led states that have been suing the president over the metric, known as the social cost of carbon: a measure, in dollars, of how much damage results from emitting 1 ton of carbon dioxide. Being able to discuss the damage in terms of a precise dollar amount is important because it allows policymakers to show when the benefits of preventing global warming are greater than the costs. At some point it just becomes cheaper to switch to sustainable systems instead of coping with all the wildfires, floods, droughts, and heat waves that result from unsustainable systems.
The idea of social cost of carbon (SCC) is fascinating: seemingly it aims to make the social costs of climate crisis objective by giving them a price tag. But then it becomes clear that the price tag depends on political / value judgements concerning the future, on which the idea of "discounting" depends.
let's put the electrical power systems together these electrical power 00:22:29 systems that this is actually on the low side because most industrial action happens with the consumption of coal and gas on site and then it's converted to energy on site this is what's just been drawn off the power grid 00:22:42 so there's a vast amount of energy associated with manufacturing that is not included here and that is actually a huge piece of work to include that so these numbers i'm showing you are very much on the low side 00:22:55 so we're going to put it all together we need 36 000 terawatt hours all there abouts that's a that's a very low estimate
!- key insight : minimum power of energy transition, excluding the large amount of energy for industrial processes ! - for : energy transition, degrowth, green growth
assessment of extra capacity required of alternative energy electrical power systems to completely replace fossil fuels
Title: Assessment of extra capacity required of alternative energy electrical power systems to completely replace fossil fuels Author: Prof. Simon Michaux, Geological Survey of Finland (GTK) Year: 2022
This comes at a momentous time in Australia’s history as we confront the devastating consequences of whitefella knowledge systems and ways of thinking that have led inexorably to a combination of global warming and environmental degradation that is threatening the viability of human habitation in vast areas of the world.
Ausführlicher Überblick zu den erwarteten Klimaveränderungen auf kroatischem Staatsgebiet bis 2040, mit einem Ausblick auf 2070. Berücksichtigt vor allem RCP4.5, aber auch RCP8.5. Macht (bei sehr oberflächlichem Durchsehen mit mangelnden Sprachkenntnissen) an manchen Stellen einen etwas verharmlosenden Eindruck.
A good layperson's overview of one effort to increase cloud albedo to counteract climate change. I think that lowering insolation is somehow missing the point of combatting climate change, but it's a legitimate approach that still needs a lot of research.
What's particularly good about this article is how it manages to demonstrate how complex the problem is without smothering the reader in technobabble.
Zusammenfassende Studie zu den Auswirkungen des Ukraine-Kriegs auf Gas-Förderung und Konsum
Ein weiteres Argument dafür, dass der ganze COP-Prozess nicht funktioniert. Die Steigerung der NDCs ist der Zweck der Prozesses, und nach der COP26 wurde gerade darauf gesetzt.time:
Should something new be experienced, it will be unexpected, may beoverwhelming and may not fit into any meaningful representation or expression at all. The new assuch, the possible source of transformation, regeneration and vision, does not submit to the orderimposed by the personware, it is naturally on a collision course with it and a source to various degreesof cognitive dissonance. As such, it poses a threat that a well-functioning cognitive system mustmediate.
!- for : climate change, rapid whole system change * This is a common response of people conditioned to the status quo personware - it is overwhelming and threatening * Defensiveness and conservatism to preserve the familiar elements of the status quo is a common response, including all forms of climate denialism * Early stages of pandemic in which people were afraid to don masks for fear of being ostracized
governance rather encompasses all localdecision-makers as well, as it is actually almost entirely within their own respective dominions ofcontrol where the overall success or failure is determined.
All local decision-makers are included in the global governance of climate change as well.
For example, in respect to the goal of reducing the global emissions of carbon dioxide, the relevantsystem of governance is not limited to those who conclude that there is a global risk, those whoaccept or reject the conclusion, those who formulate objectives, those who choose to adhere to or toignore them, who conceive of regulations, who choose to implement them or not, who determineprogress, decline or failures, those who select means by which to influence the desired local industrialinvestment, or consumption choices and so on.
In other words, the role of governance goes beyond the traditional decision-makers, and is more inclusive. Who else gets to participate?
Could social systems be finally reprogrammed, at long last, ‘as if peoplemattered’ [ 8]?
Zum Klimabericht der Deutschen Bundesbank.Die Daten sind offenbar wenig aussagekräftig. Es fehlen vor allem Daten über die Klimawirkung von Interventionen.
There are temperature ceilings that humans and mammals (and many other animals) cannot survive, if breached. What those limits are, and what happens when they are crossed, will have profound implications for agriculture and biodiversity in a warming world.
!- for : climate departure * Camilo Mora's 2013 Climate Departure paper: https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbafybeihfoajtasczfz4s6u6j4mmyzlbn7zt4f7hpynjdvd6vpp32zmx5la.ipfs.dweb.link%2FTheprojectedtimingofclimatedeparture2013.pdf&group=vnpq69nW * 2021 ecological disruption from climate change paper - Christopher Tritos: https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbafybeihtmvfurik7dk3ksfjwn6bnbqnzgfpkokfwcvgo5xarmqseedajiy.ipfs.dweb.link%2Fthe%2520projected%2520timing%2520of%2520abrupt%2520ecological%2520disruption%2520from%2520climate%2520change%252010.1038%40s41586-020-2189-9.pdf&group=vnpq69nW
What happens if the world gets too hot for animals to survive? By Matthew Huber | July 20, 2022
The projected timing of climate departurefrom recent variability
So what can we make of politicians who continue to argue that ‘1.5°C is still alive’? Are they misinformed or are they simply lying?I believe many are in denial about the types of solutions the climate crisis demands. Rather than do the – admittedly – very difficult political work of eking out our supplies of fossil fuels while accelerating a just transition to post-carbon societies, politicians are going all out on technological salvation. This is a new form of climate denial, which involves imagining large-scale carbon dioxide removal that will clean up the carbon pollution that we continue to pump into the atmosphere. While it may seem much safer to stick to the script and say that it is still physically possible to limit warming to no more than 1.5°C, while pointing out that the scale of change demands much more political will, I believe that this can no longer be a credible response to the climate crisis.We have warmed the climate by 1.2°C since pre-industrial periods. If emissions stay flat at current levels, then in around nine years the carbon budget for 1.5°C will be exhausted. And, of course, emissions are not flat – they are surging. 2021 saw the second-largest annual increase ever recorded, driven by the rebound in economic activity after Coronavirus lockdowns. We did not ‘build back better’.The clock has been stuck at five minutes to midnight for decades. Alarms have been continuing to sound. There are only so many times you can hit the snooze button.
Going all out on technological salvation is a form of climate denialism.
We are at 1.2 Deg C and emissions have climbed after rebounding after Covid. If they flatline for the next nine years, we will hit 1.5 Deg C.
We Need to Stop Pretending we can Limit Global Warming to 1.5°C
Title: We Need to Stop Pretending we can Limit Global Warming to 1.5°C Author: James Dyke Date: 6 July 2022