for - adjacency - polycrisis - war - israel-Iran war - Russia-Ukraine war - planetary adaptive cycle - planetary phase shift - release-to-reorganization stage

for - rapid whole system change - Nafeez Ahmed - planetary phase shift - Nafeez Ahmed - planetary adaptive cycle - Nafeez Ahmed - essay - The End of Scarcity? From ‘Polycrisis’ to Planetary Phase Shift - Nafeez Ahmed - 2024 Oct 16 - to - book - The Ascent of Humanity - chapter 8 Self and Cosmos: The Gaian Birthing - stillborn and the perilous journey through the womb - Charles Eisenstein

summary - This is a good article that makes sense of the inflection point that humanity now faces as it contends with multiple existential crisis - It summarizes the complexity of our polycrisis and its precarity and lays the theory for looking at the polycrisis from a different perspective: - as a planetary phase shift towards the potential end of scarcity and the next stage of our species evolution - Through the lens of ecologist Crawford Stanley Holling's lens of the adaptive cycle of ecological population dynamics, - and especially his 2004 paper "From Complex Regions to Complex Worlds" - Nafeez extends Holling's argument that we are undergoing a planetary adaptive cycle in which the back-loop is the dying industrial era. - In this sense, it is reminiscent of the writings of Charles Eisenstein in his book "The Ascent of Humanity", chapter 8: Self and Cosmos:, The Gaian Birth. - Eisenstein uses the the perilous journey of birth through the womb door as a metaphor of the transition we are currently undergoing.

to - paper - From Complex Regions to Complex Worlds - Crawford Stanley Holling - 2004 - https://hyp.is/KYCm2pFrEe-_PEu84xshXw/www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol9/iss1/art11/main.html?ref=ageoftransformation.org - book - The Ascent of Humanity - Chapter 8 - The Gaian Birthing - Charles Eisenstein - https://hyp.is/r8scTpG_Ee-gLTujlli5hQ/charleseisenstein.org/books/the-ascent-of-humanity/eng/the-gaian-birthing/

for - planetary adaptive cycle - 2004 paper - Crawford Stanley Holling - to - paper - From Complex Regions to Complex Worlds - Crawford Stanley Holling - 2004

to - paper - From Complex Regions to Complex Worlds - Crawford Stanley Holling - 2004 - https://hyp.is/KYCm2pFrEe-_PEu84xshXw/www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol9/iss1/art11/main.html?ref=ageoftransformation.org

for - whole system change - big picture - back loop of planetary adaptive cycle - entering the reorganization phase - regional to planetary life cycle

for - quote / insight - decreased resiliency due to tight network of elites - From Complex Regions to Complex Worlds Crawford Stanley Holling - 2004 - creative alternatives - liminal spaces - rapid whole system change

quote / insight - decreased resiliency due to tight network of elites - (see quote below) - The front-loop phase is more predictable, - with higher degrees of certainty. - In both the natural and social worlds, - it maximizes production and accumulation. - We have been in that mode since World War II. - The consequence of this is not only an accumulation and concentration of wealth, - but also the emergence of greater vulnerability because of - the increasing number of interconnections that link that wealth, and - those who control it, - in efforts to sustain it. - Little time and few resources are available for alternatives that explore different visions or opportunities. - Emergence and novelty is inhibited. - This growing connectedness leads to increasing rigidity in its goal to retain control, - and the system becomes ever more tightly bound together. - This reduces resilience and the capacity of the system to absorb change, - thus increasing the threat of abrupt change. - We can recognize the need for change but become politically stifled in our capacity to act effectively.

to - quote - we are now in a back-loop of a planetary adaptive cycle - From Complex Regions to Complex Worlds - Crawford Stanley Holling - 2004 - https://hyp.is/FTRDoJFuEe-rsvdKeYjr0g/www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol9/iss1/art11/main.html?ref=ageoftransformation.org

comment - These ideas are quite important for those change actors working to emerge creative alternatives - liminal spaces - rapid whole system change

for - definition - adaptive cycle - Crawford Stanley Holling - IIASA

definition - adaptive cycle - Crawford Stanley Holling - IIASA - Predator-prey dynamics across a large variety of species, follow a recursive 'adaptive cycle' consisting of: - front loop stage - growth and accumulation - back loop stage - rapid reorganization with increased stability due to dependency on a limited number of conditions leading to reduced resiliency and either - renewal or - collapse <br /> - This is a characteristic of an ecosystem of many species coexisting together

for - planetary adaptive cycle - entering back-loop phase - paper - From Complex Regions to Complex Worlds - Crawford Stanley Holling - 2004 - from - essay - The End of Scarcity? From ‘Polycrisis’ to Planetary Phase Shift - Nafeez Ahmed - 2024

from - essay - The End of Scarcity? From ‘Polycrisis’ to Planetary Phase Shift - Nafeez Ahmed - 2024 - https://hyp.is/okOeDJFqEe-9ZsMEsKWR9w/ageoftransformation.org/the-end-of-scarcity-from-polycrisis-to-planetary-phase-shift/

for - key insight - evolution - not producing the same, but different, more adaptive

key insight - evolution - not producing the same, but different, more adaptive - The goal of evolution is not to replicate the same individual, but to create a different one that is BETTER ADAPTED to its environment - and towards this end, physiology is evolution, evolution is physiology (via epigenetics)

• Each of these 4 problems
  • anxiety disorder
  • domestic violence
  • racial prejudice
  • obesity
• reflects the operation of psychological mechanisms
• that were designed through evolution
• to serve important adaptive functions, - but that nevertheless can produce harmful consequences.

Atari, M., Reimer, N. K., Graham, J., Hoover, J., Kennedy, B., Davani, A. M., Karimi-Malekabadi, F., Birjandi, S., & Dehghani, M. (2021). Pathogens Are Linked to Human Moral Systems Across Time and Space. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/tnyh9

Kan, U., Feng, M., & Porter, M. A. (2021). An Adaptive Bounded-Confidence Model of Opinion Dynamics on Networks. ArXiv:2112.05856 [Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2112.05856

Adaptive Content

I learned about COPE from Karen McGrane.

Create Once, Publish Everywhere

So when I talk about adaptive content, I popularized a case study from NPR in which they outlined their catchily-named approach to publishing web content, which they called COPE. It stands for Create Once, Publish Everywhere. And in NPR’s model, they maintain a single content model for their article form. So in this content structure, they would have for an article a title, a short title, a teaser, a short teaser, several images attached to the article, an audio file, the body text, whatever metadata was attached to the article, and they could serve up a different combination of that more granular content based on the type of device someone was using.

Adaptive Content

COPE: Create Once, Publish Everywhere

With the growing need and ability to be portable comes tremendous opportunity for content providers. But it also requires substantial changes to their thinking and their systems.

Run for Water

I used one of these themes for the redesign of the Run for Water site. I transitioned away from Jamstack, because the organization is centred around volunteers, and it was important to empower them to easily make changes to the marketing front end of their organization. The WordPress theme has a beautiful interface for managing content. However, it goes against the philosophy of COPE (Create Once, Publish Everywhere), recommended by Karen McGrane in her presentations on Content in a Zombie Apocalypse.

Symphony

My interest in the subject of Adaptive Content goes back to the days when Symphony was my tool of choice.

Israelow, B., Mao, T., Klein, J., Song, E., Menasche, B., Omer, S. B., & Iwasaki, A. (2021). Adaptive immune determinants of viral clearance and protection in mouse models of SARS-CoV-2. Science Immunology. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciimmunol.abl4509

Israelow, B., Mao, T., Klein, J., Song, E., Menasche, B., Omer, S. B., & Iwasaki, A. (2021). Adaptive immune determinants of viral clearance and protection in mouse models of SARS-CoV-2. BioRxiv, 2021.05.19.444825. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.05.19.444825

The sheer number of interacting variables that you'd need to track makes it impossible to make any accurate predictions.

Maia, H. P., Ferreira, S. C., & Martins, M. L. (2020). Adaptive network approach for emergence of societal bubbles. ArXiv:2010.08635 [Nlin, Physics:Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2010.08635

An interview with Zachary Pardos, a professor at UC Berkeley who is creating adaptive tutoring software. He describes how he thinks technology and the pandemic will change education over the next several years. He expects greater accessibility to wireless provided like school buses, greater use and development of adaptive tutoring software, and more online learning. I'd need more information on how the system deals with students who don't get it - do they have multiple explanations for math, or just one? 5/10

Susan Athey, July 22, 2020. (2020, August 2). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hqTOPrUxDzM

Kasy, M. (2020). How to run an adaptive field experiment. Retrieved from https://maxkasy.github.io/home/files/slides/adaptive_field_slides_kasy.pdf

Malani, A., Soman, S., Asher, S., Novosad, P., Imbert, C., Tandel, V., Agarwal, A., Alomar, A., Sarker, A., Shah, D., Shen, D., Gruber, J., Sachdeva, S., Kaiser, D., & Bettencourt, L. M. A. (2020). Adaptive Control of COVID-19 Outbreaks in India: Local, Gradual, and Trigger-based Exit Paths from Lockdown (Working Paper No. 27532; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27532

Méndez, P. F. (2020). Blue uncertainty: Warding off systemic risks in the Anthropocene – Lessons from COVID-19 [Preprint]. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/z2br5

Grifoni, A., Weiskopf, D., Ramirez, S. I., Mateus, J., Dan, J. M., Moderbacher, C. R., Rawlings, S. A., Sutherland, A., Premkumar, L., Jadi, R. S., Marrama, D., de Silva, A. M., Frazier, A., Carlin, A., Greenbaum, J. A., Peters, B., Krammer, F., Smith, D. M., Crotty, S., & Sette, A. (2020). Targets of T cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in humans with COVID-19 disease and unexposed individuals. Cell, S0092867420306103. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2020.05.015

Almaatouq, A., Noriega-Campero, A., Alotaibi, A., Krafft, P. M., Moussaid, M., & Pentland, A. (2020). Adaptive social networks promote the wisdom of crowds. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 201917687. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1917687117

Leitner, S. (2020, April 18). On the dynamics emerging from pandemics and infodemics. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/nqru6

Maha describes here the primary concern I have with the pursuit of both AI and adaptive technologies in education. Not that the designers of such tools are attempting to replace human interaction, but that the spread of "robotic" educational tools will accelerate the drive to further reduce human-powered teaching and learning, leading perhaps to class-based divisions in educational experiences like Maha imagines here.

AI and adaptive tool designers often say that they are hoping their technologies will free up time for human teachers to focus on more impactful educational practices. However, we already see how technologies that reduce human labor often lead to further reductions the use of human teachers — not their increase. As Maha points out, that's a social and economic issue, not a technology issue. If we focus on building tools rather than revalorizing human-powered education, I fear we are accelerating the devaluation of education already taking place.

Author Mary Burns discusses the key elements of computer adaptive testing (CAT). CAT is defined as assessments that use algorithms to progressively adjust test difficulty based upon learner's correct or incorrect responses. The benefits of CAT include more immediate data and are often more reliable. Types of test items are also covered to illustrate how the test can meet various levels of cognition and measure expertise. An issue related to CAT is the intensive time needed to develop multiple test items at multiple levels of cognition. Rating: 8/10

Open learning software from Carnegie Mellon

This is interesting. This could be interesting in design.

Could this fit within a trades model?

This could be very powerful in trades training.

This is brilliant. Start simple and then ramp it up for practice.

fixed form assessment vs. adaptive assessment.

Content, Assement, sequence. The three places adaptive learning occurs.

OMG YES!!!

Definition of adaptaive learning

interesting

YES!

When I view this diagram, I am reminded of Robert Rosen's Modeling Relation, an image of which is here The Modeling Relation grew out of research in Relational Biology which was the first mathematical biology to recognize that relations among organism components and between those components and the environment are key to understanding complex adaptive systems.

As I begin to read this (as I did back in 2000 when I was introduced to Doug) I begin to think in terms of reductionism as a practice in the face of problems which are highly complex, nonlinear, and which do not submit to chunking.

Personalized learning

Integrating Technology, Homework Help and Calculus

The “at the very least” part makes it sound as though this were the easy part.

Interesting, the evidence for efficacy is still not there (yet).

That does not really explain why there are very talented musicians that have limb defects, but I suppose that similar to a blind person being able to hear better, their brains adjust (like complex-adaptive systems do) and reassign a new input-element (e.g. the feet) to a left-over motoric system(e.g. the hands).

Should be credited to Stanley Fish.

Breaking out of ed tech hype.

"the combination of multiple strange loops"

You mean Knewton isn’t the only way to do things? Or that Knewton will adopt all sorts of different methods?

Yikes. Sounds a little scary.