interestingly covid & MVC deaths are roughly comparable (1.35 vs 1.4 million) but this is an area where the US has taken incredible public health steps to makes cars & roads safer, whereas in much of the world, road safety is not a priority compare the covid responses

If you’re feeling that herd immunity is the zombie idea of the pandemic that refuses to die, you’re about to see it resurrected in earnest. This time, however, the talk ought to be about the context in which herd immunity was only ever meant to be applied: a vaccination programme.

Herd immunity: a zombie idea and a lethal strategy

The U.S.′ first case of Covid-19 was reported by the CDC on Jan. 21, 2020.Since then, the country has recorded more than 24 million cases and 400,000 deaths.Experts in public health, science, industry and government reflect on what we’ve learned.

A year into the Covid crisis, scientists explain what we learned — and what we got wrong

David Spiegelhalter@d_spiegelCOVID deaths within 28 days of +ve test may reach 100,000 today. But ONS data https://ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales… show that over 100,000 people in the UK had died with COVID on death certificate by *Jan 7th*, nearly 3 weeks ago. 108,000 by Jan 15th, and total now will be nearly 120,000

vaccine wellerman let’s gooooo #seashantytok

Since the start of the coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic, the term “herd immunity” has been all over the news. But what does it really mean? One thing most people don’t realize about vaccines is that they aren’t just to protect the person who gets the shot. They also protect the population as a whole… even people who didn’t get the shot. In this video, we use lots and lots of mousetraps and ping-pong balls to show you how that works.

Visualizing Herd Immunity (with 500 Mousetraps!) (feat. @The Slow Mo Guys​)

On 6 January, gastroenterologist Leolin Katsidzira received a troubling message from his colleague James Gita Hakim, a heart specialist and noted HIV/AIDS researcher. Hakim, chair of the department of medicine at the University of Zimbabwe, had fallen sick and had tested positive for COVID-19. He was admitted to a hospital in Harare 10 days later and moved to an intensive care unit (ICU) after his condition deteriorated. He died on 26 January.

Unprotected African health workers die as rich countries buy up COVID-19 vaccines

10.31234/osf.io/sybta

Although young adults are not at great risk of becoming severely ill with COVID-19, their willingness to get vaccinated affects the whole community. Vaccine hesitancy has increased during recent years, and more research is needed on its situational determinants. This paper reports a preregistered experiment (N = 654) that examined whether communicating descriptive social norms – information about what most people do – is an effective way of influencing young people’s intentions and reducing their hesitancy to take the COVID-19 vaccine. We found weak support for our main hypothesis that conveying strong (compared to weak) norms leads to reduced hesitancy and stronger intentions. Furthermore, norms did not produce significantly different effects compared to standard vaccine information from the authorities. Moreover, no support was found for the hypothesis that young people are more strongly influenced by norms when the norm reference group consists of other young individuals rather than people in general. These findings suggest that the practical usefulness of signaling descriptive norms is rather limited, and may not be more effective than standard appeals in the quest of encouraging young adults to trust and accept a new vaccine.

Do social norms influence young people’s willingness to take the COVID-19 vaccine?

10.1016/j.copsyc.2021.01.005

Empirical research on the Gateway Belief Model (GBM) has flourished in recent years. The model offers a dual-process account of how attitude change happens in response to normative cues about scientific agreement. A plethora of correlational and experimental evidence has emerged documenting the positive direct and indirect effects of communicating the scientific consensus on global warming. I review recent scholarship and argue that the next generation of research on the GBM should focus on better justifying the inclusion of moderators on both a theoretical and empirical level, explicitly manipulate motivations to process the consensus message, model how consensus cues operate in competitive information networks and test the model in field settings using causal chain experiments.

The Gateway Belief Model (GBM): A review and research agenda for communicating the scientific consensus on climate change

10.31234/osf.io/c6s5v

Although most young people do not become seriously ill from the coronavirus causing the COVID-19 disease, they do play a role in its spread. It is therefore important that they adhere to the recommended preventive behaviors, most importantly, physical distancing. This study aims to gain a better understanding of the psychosocial determinants of young people’s physical distancing behavior and the role that direct (i.e., interpersonal) and mediated communication (i.e., mass media, social media) about COVID-19 plays in this. A daily diary study was conducted among 481 Dutch adolescents (secondary school students; age range 10-18 years) and 404 young adults (university students; age range 17-25 years), involving 10 identical daily surveys administered on weekdays during a 2-week period during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (May 2020). The hypotheses were tested with preregistered univariate and multivariate linear mixed-effects models. The perceived descriptive norm (i.e., what friends are doing) was the most important determinant of physical distancing behavior among both adolescents and young adults. The perceived injunctive norm, perceived response efficacy, and perceived severity were also positively associated with physical distancing, albeit less strong. Among adolescents, exposure to information about COVID-19 in the mass media increased their perceptions of the descriptive norm, which in turn increased their physical distancing behavior. For those involved in studying and designing COVID-19-related behavioral interventions and campaigns targeting youth, it is important to consider the social norms that they relate to, and to take into account their perceived severity and response efficacy.

Communication and COVID-19 Physical Distancing Behavior Among Dutch Youth

10.31234/osf.io/7f6q3

The present study examines the role of personality traits, interpersonal relationships, and sociodemographic factors on perceived stress, related to COVID-19, and compliance with measures to mitigate the spread of the virus. Data were collected in the midst of the ‘first wave’ lockdown, with the survey completed in full by 963 participants. Importantly, we measured stress, directly related to the pandemic, rather than general stress, and were able to distinguish between symptoms of emotional, behavioural, cognitive, physical stress, and alienation with high concordance. We also included personality scoring with standardized T-scores, allowing for cross-study comparison, and a broader questionnaire on the participants’ support for COVID-19 mitigation measures. Results indicated that neuroticism, introversion, and conscientiousness, common conflicts with loved ones, and some demographics (female gender, middle age, existing chronic health problems) correspond to elevated stress. Neuroticism and conscientiousness were positively associated with total stress and some of its components, while extraversion was negatively correlated to total stress, its emotional and physical components, and alienation. Surprisingly, increased stress was not related to greater measure adherence. The present results shed new light on how personality, interpersonal relationships, and sociodemographic factors influence people’s stress response during a pandemic.

COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown: Associations with personality and stress components

10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1

Determine age-specific infection fatality rates for COVID-19 to inform public health policies and communications that help protect vulnerable age groups. Studies of COVID-19 prevalence were collected by conducting an online search of published articles, preprints, and government reports that were publicly disseminated prior to 18 September 2020. The systematic review encompassed 113 studies, of which 27 studies (covering 34 geographical locations) satisfied the inclusion criteria and were included in the meta-analysis. Age-specific IFRs were computed using the prevalence data in conjunction with reported fatalities 4 weeks after the midpoint date of the study, reflecting typical lags in fatalities and reporting. Meta-regression procedures in Stata were used to analyze the infection fatality rate (IFR) by age. Our analysis finds a exponential relationship between age and IFR for COVID-19. The estimated age-specific IFR is very low for children and younger adults (e.g., 0.002% at age 10 and 0.01% at age 25) but increases progressively to 0.4% at age 55, 1.4% at age 65, 4.6% at age 75, and 15% at age 85. Moreover, our results indicate that about 90% of the variation in population IFR across geographical locations reflects differences in the age composition of the population and the extent to which relatively vulnerable age groups were exposed to the virus. These results indicate that COVID-19 is hazardous not only for the elderly but also for middle-aged adults, for whom the infection fatality rate is two orders of magnitude greater than the annualized risk of a fatal automobile accident and far more dangerous than seasonal influenza. Moreover, the overall IFR for COVID-19 should not be viewed as a fixed parameter but as intrinsically linked to the age-specific pattern of infections. Consequently, public health measures to mitigate infections in older adults could substantially decrease total deaths.

Assessing the age specificity of infection fatality rates for COVID-19: systematic review, meta-analysis, and public policy implications

10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30183-5

BackgroundA recent cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan, China, was caused by a novel betacoronavirus, the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). We report the epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and radiological characteristics and treatment and clinical outcomes of these patients.MethodsAll patients with suspected 2019-nCoV were admitted to a designated hospital in Wuhan. We prospectively collected and analysed data on patients with laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection by real-time RT-PCR and next-generation sequencing. Data were obtained with standardised data collection forms shared by WHO and the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium from electronic medical records. Researchers also directly communicated with patients or their families to ascertain epidemiological and symptom data. Outcomes were also compared between patients who had been admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) and those who had not.FindingsBy Jan 2, 2020, 41 admitted hospital patients had been identified as having laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection. Most of the infected patients were men (30 [73%] of 41); less than half had underlying diseases (13 [32%]), including diabetes (eight [20%]), hypertension (six [15%]), and cardiovascular disease (six [15%]). Median age was 49·0 years (IQR 41·0–58·0). 27 (66%) of 41 patients had been exposed to Huanan seafood market. One family cluster was found. Common symptoms at onset of illness were fever (40 [98%] of 41 patients), cough (31 [76%]), and myalgia or fatigue (18 [44%]); less common symptoms were sputum production (11 [28%] of 39), headache (three [8%] of 38), haemoptysis (two [5%] of 39), and diarrhoea (one [3%] of 38). Dyspnoea developed in 22 (55%) of 40 patients (median time from illness onset to dyspnoea 8·0 days [IQR 5·0–13·0]). 26 (63%) of 41 patients had lymphopenia. All 41 patients had pneumonia with abnormal findings on chest CT. Complications included acute respiratory distress syndrome (12 [29%]), RNAaemia (six [15%]), acute cardiac injury (five [12%]) and secondary infection (four [10%]). 13 (32%) patients were admitted to an ICU and six (15%) died. Compared with non-ICU patients, ICU patients had higher plasma levels of IL2, IL7, IL10, GSCF, IP10, MCP1, MIP1A, and TNFα.InterpretationThe 2019-nCoV infection caused clusters of severe respiratory illness similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and was associated with ICU admission and high mortality. Major gaps in our knowledge of the origin, epidemiology, duration of human transmission, and clinical spectrum of disease need fulfilment by future studies.

Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China

10.1101/2021.01.21.21250266

Background Though SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks have been documented in occupational settings and though there is speculation that essential workers face heightened risks for COVID-19, occupational differences in excess mortality have, to date, not been examined. Such information could point to opportunities for intervention, such as workplace modifications and prioritization of vaccine distribution.Methods and findings Using death records from the California Department of Public Health, we estimated excess mortality among Californians 18–65 years of age by occupational sector and occupation, with additional stratification of the sector analysis by race/ethnicity. During the COVID-19 pandemic, working age adults experienced a 22% increase in mortality compared to historical periods. Relative excess mortality was highest in food/agriculture workers (39% increase), transportation/logistics workers (28% increase), facilities (27%) and manufacturing workers (23% increase). Latino Californians experienced a 36% increase in mortality, with a 59% increase among Latino food/agriculture workers. Black Californians experienced a 28% increase in mortality, with a 36% increase for Black retail workers. Asian Californians experienced an 18% increase, with a 40% increase among Asian healthcare workers. Excess mortality among White working-age Californians increased by 6%, with a 16% increase among White food/agriculture workers.Conclusions Certain occupational sectors have been associated with high excess mortality during the pandemic, particularly among racial and ethnic groups also disproportionately affected by COVID-19. In-person essential work is a likely venue of transmission of coronavirus infection and must be addressed through strict enforcement of health orders in workplace settings and protection of in-person workers. Vaccine distribution prioritizing in-person essential workers will be important for reducing excess COVID mortality.

Excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic among Californians 18–65 years of age, by occupational sector and occupation: March through October 2020

10.31234/osf.io/b9hcg

The COVID-19 pandemic poses one of the largest behavioral change challenges in the last decades. Because currently, there is no widely available pharmaceutical treatment available to contain the spread of infection, governments worldwide rely – at least to some extent – on behavioral recommendations aimed at reducing spread. The success of this strategy is dependent on the number of people that follow the recommendations. Most recommendations need people to change their behavior or adopt a new behavior. We propose that such behavioral change, with direct costs and delayed benefits, is a source of conflict and mixed feelings. This ambivalence negatively affects adherence to such recommendations. We present three studies that support our hypotheses: the more ambivalent people are about the recommendations, the less they follow them. We also examined the effect of the mixed emotions of hope and worry on adherence and find that it positively relates to adherence. Our findings replicated both in a U.S. sample as well as a representative German sample. Our work is the first to investigate the role of ambivalence in large-scale behavior change and highlight the importance of understanding the conflict that comes with changing behavior. We discuss implications for policy and communication.

Ambivalence and Adherence to Measures to Reduce the Spread of COVID-19 Authors

10.31234/osf.io/94sd3

Background: The social identity model of risk taking proposes that people take more risks with ingroup members because they trust them more. While this can be beneficial in some circumstances, in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic it has the potential to undermine an effective public health response if people underestimate the risk of contagion posed by ingroup members, or overestimate the risk of vaccines or treatments developed by outgroup members. Methods: Three studies (two prospective surveys, one experiment) with community-based adults tested the potential for the social identity model of risk taking to explain risk perception and risk taking in the context of COVID-19. Results: Study 1 was a two-wave study with a pre-COVID baseline, and found that people who identified more strongly as a member of their neighborhood pre-COVID tended to trust their neighbors more, and perceive interacting with them during lockdown restrictions as less risky. Study 2 (N=2033) replicated these findings in a two-wave nationally representative Australian sample. Study 3 (N=216) was a pre-registered experiment which found evidence that the tendency to trust ingroup members more could be harnessed to enhance the COVID-19 response. Specifically, people were more willing to take a vaccine and perceived it to be less risky when it was developed by an ingroup compared to an outgroup source. Conclusions: Across all three studies, ingroup members were trusted more and were perceived to pose less health risk. These findings are discussed with a focus on how group processes can be more effectively incorporated into public health policy, both for the current pandemic and for future contagious disease threats.

Perceived COVID-19 risk is attenuated by ingroup trust: Evidence from three empirical studies

10.31234/osf.io/dw85a

In recent years behavioural science has quickly become embedded in national level policy making. As the contributions of behavioural science to the UK’s Covid-19 response policies in early 2020 became apparent, a debate emerged in the British media about its involvement. This served as a unique opportunity to capture public discourse and representation of behavioural science in fast-track, high-stake national policy making. Aimed at identifying elements which foster and detract from trust and credibility in emergent scientific contributions to policy making, in study 1 we use corpus linguistics and thematic analysis to map the narrative around the key behavioural science actors and concepts which were discussed in the 650 news articles extracted from the 15 most read British newspapers over the 12-week period surrounding the first hard UK lockdown from March 2020. We report and discuss 1) the salience of key concepts and actors as the debate unfolded, 2) quantified changes in the polarity of the sentiment expressed toward them and their policy application contexts, and 3) patterns of co-occurrence via network analysis. In Study 2, we investigate how salience and sentiment of key themes observed in traditional media discourse tracked on original Twitter chatter (N = 2,187). In Study 3, we complement these findings with a qualitative analysis of the subset of news articles which contained the most extreme sentiments (N = 111), providing an in-depth perspective of sentiments and discourse developed around keywords, as either promoting or undermining their credibility in, and trust toward behaviourally informed policy. We discuss our findings in light of the integration of behavioural science in national policy making under emergency constraints.

Lessons from lockdown: Media discourse on the role of behavioural science in the UK COVID-19 response

10.1136/bmj.n179

The pandemic has presented doctors with legal and ethical challenges around how to treat patients in overstretched health services. Clare Dyer examines some of the key questions

Covid 19: How to feel safe working on the front line—your legal and ethical questions answered

6,245

Exclusive: Adapted single-deckers with seats removed and oxygen onboard will transfer patients

London buses turned into ambulances to ease Covid strain

10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00186-0

As many countries continue to struggle with a third wave of COVID-19—Hong Kong is suffering its fourth wave and is contemplating a fifth and sixth—all governments and public health authorities will need to remain open to new ideas for controlling the pandemic. This past week, Ilona Kickbusch, founding director of the Global Health Centre at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva, shared a proposal being widely discussed in Germany. The approach devised by a group of clinicians and academics, which in addition to Kickbusch includes Melanie Brinkmann, Michael Hallek, Matthias Schneider, and others, is a “No-COVID strategy”.

Offline: The case for No-COVID

NIH study compares how different face masks affect humidity inside the mask

Researchers propose that humidity from masks may lessen severity of COVID-19

Survey spanning several countries finds encouraging trends, but researchers warn vaccine hesitancy could slow pandemic recovery.

Trust in COVID vaccines is growing

Our national pandemic health protection response in the UK has been undermined at every turn by misinformation and disinformation from self styled “libertarians,” “lockdown sceptics,” “truth seekers,” covid deniers, conspiracy theorists, and professional attention seekers—whether high-profile media commentators, politicians, and lobbyists, or organised groups on social media. 

David Oliver: Covid deniers’ precarious Jenga tower is collapsing on contact with reality   

10.31234/osf.io/fhdkv

The unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic in the US required organizations to make their own decisions regarding prevention policies, such as whether to require and enforce mask wearing, in the absence of regulations and norms. In five pre-registered studies, we investigate whether people support strict COVID-19 prevention policies and whether that support is underestimated, across business types, types of policy cues (stated and viral videos), and types of policies (required mask-wearing and vaccination). We consistently find that people strongly favor organizations with strict policies, such that the risks of both losing customers and of negative consumer perceptions are higher for lax policies (e.g., recommended mask-wearing) than for strict policies (requiring and enforcing mask-wearing). Nevertheless, customers and managers alike underestimate public support for strict policies, with negative consequences for word-of-mouth behavior. The underappreciation of support for public health measures that we document can impede the establishment of norms and the adoption of strict policies, undermining efforts to combat public health crises such as COVID-19.

The Masked Majority: Underprediction Of Widespread Support For Covid-19 Safety Policies.

10.31234/osf.io/7sn3w

This article discusses the latest research that reveals that children seem to be facing new risks of sexual violence in Kenya during the COVID-19 pandemic. Patterns of sex offending against children coinciding with the implementation of lockdowns, curfews, and school closures may be shifting since the pandemic began. In particular, emerging evidence from Kenya suggests that child victims are younger, more likely to be victimized by a neighbor in a private residence, and in the daytime, compared to pre-pandemic. We conclude that situational crime prevention strategies that focus on providing alternative safe venues to reduce offending opportunities must be a central part of a public health approach to reduce children’s vulnerability during crises such as COVID-19.

Children’s Vulnerability to Sexual Violence during COVID-19 in Kenya: Recommendations for the Future

10.31234/osf.io/4fykt

As COVID-19 continues to disrupt pre-tertiary education provision and examinations in the UK, urgent consideration must be given to how best to support the 2021-2022 cohort of incoming undergraduate students to Higher Education. In this paper, we draw upon the ‘Five Sense of Student Success’ model to highlight five key evidence-based considerations that Higher Education educators should be attentive to when preparing for the next academic year. These include: the challenge in helping students to reacclimatise to academic work following a period of prolonged educational disruption, supporting students to access the ‘hidden curriculum’ of Higher Education, negotiating mental health consequences of COVID-19, and remaining sensitive to inequalities of educational provision that students have experienced as a result of COVID-19. We provide evidence-based recommendations to each of these considerations.

Supporting students during the transition to university in COVID-19: 5 key considerations and recommendations

10.31234/osf.io/pbf4d

We social animals must balance the need to avoid infections with the need to interact with conspecifics. To that end we have evolved, alongside our physiological immune system, a suite of behaviors devised to deal with potentially contagious individuals. Focusing mostly on humans, the current review describes the design and biological innards of this behavioral immune system, laying out how infection threat shapes sociality and sociality shapes infection threat. The paper shows how the danger of contagion is detected and posted to the brain; how it affects individuals’ mate choice and sex life; why it strengthens ties within groups but severs those between them, leading to hostility toward anyone who looks, smells, or behaves unusually; and how it permeates the foundation of our moral and political views. This system was already in place when agriculture and animal domestication set off a massive increase in our population density, personal connections, and interaction with other species, amplifying enormously the spread of disease. Alas, pandemics such as COVID-19 not only are a disaster for public health, but, by rousing millions of behavioral immune systems, could prove a threat to harmonious cohabitation too.

Infection threat shapes our social instincts

10.31234/osf.io/n8b7x

Objective: The present study rapidly reviewed and meta-analyzed the worldwide prevalence of depression and anxiety among pregnant women during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: A systematic search of the literature and meta-analyses were conducted. Results: Fifteen studies with 11,091 participants met inclusion criteria. Depression was assessed in 11 studies, with a pooled prevalence of .265 or 26.5% and anxiety in 12 studies, with a pooled prevalence of .335 or 33.5%. Conclusions: Rates of depression and anxiety during pregnancy are elevated during the pandemic. There is an urgent need to ensure screening and treatment for depression and anxiety during pregnancy.

Depression and Anxiety in Pregnancy during COVID-19: A Rapid Review and Meta-Analysis

Preview (AEA members only) (1.44 MB)

Between 1921 and 1956, French colonial governments organized medical campaigns to treat and prevent sleeping sickness. Villagers were forcibly examined and injected with medications with severe, sometimes fatal, side effects. We digitized thirty years of archival records to document the locations of campaign visits at a granular geographic level for five central African countries. We find that greater campaign exposure reduces vaccination rates and trust in medicine– as measured by willingness to consent to a blood test. We examine relevance for present day health initiatives; World Bank projects in the health sector are less successful in areas with greater exposure

The Legacy of Colonial Medicine in Central Africa

We are Members of Parliament from different parties And from different South Asian backgrounds But we have come together to share with you an important message. Please, when it is your turn, take the #COVID-19 vaccine. Watch our video

doi:10.1001/jama.2021.1205

Over the past 2 weeks numerous states have announced a major shift in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination programs—from a textured approach that includes individual risk factors for morbidity and mortality (eg, age and high-risk medical conditions), occupational risk factors for exposure (eg, first responders and correctional officers), and other societal priorities (eg, essential workers such as teachers, grocery store employees, and public transportation workers) to an approach focused on vaccinating all individuals aged 65 years and older. Concerns have been raised that the more detailed approach has been difficult to implement, thus slowing the rollout of vaccines, and may leave decisions regarding who gets vaccinated to people not adequately trained to make such a decision.

Vaccine Distribution—Equity Left Behind?

This article is part of a series in which OECD experts and thought leaders — from around the world and all parts of society — address the COVID-19 crisis, discussing and developing solutions now and for the future. Aiming to foster the fruitful exchange of expertise and perspectives across fields to help us rise to this critical challenge, opinions expressed do not necessarily represent the views of the OECD.

The Haves and Have-Nots: The geopolitical dilemma of COVID vaccine equity

The line charts the world is obsessing over these days aren’t a race to flatten the curve. Instead, our attention is focused on a race to a herd immunity threshold that promises a return to some semblance of normalcy.

Demystifying Vaccination MetricsNine considerations when reading COVID-19 vaccination charts

As the coronavirus crisis goes on, an increasing number of us are feeling worn out and unable to cope. Here’s how you can tell if this is burnout, and what you can do to protect yourself

Pandemic burnout: Do you have it and what can you do about it?