The pandemic closed hundreds of thousands of businesses across the country. But now applications for new U.S. businesses are rising at the fastest rate since 2007. Why? A mix of necessity and opportunity.

Is It Insane to Start a Business During Coronavirus? Millions of Americans Don’t Think So.

2009.11965

We present a modelling framework for the spreading of epidemics on temporal networks from which both the individual-based and pair-based models can be recovered. The proposed pair-based model that is systematically derived from this framework offers an improvement over existing pair-based models by moving away from edge-centric descriptions while keeping the description concise and relatively simple. For the contagion process, we consider the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model, which is realized on a network with time-varying edges. We show that the shift in perspective from individual-based to pair-based quantities enables exact modelling of Markovian epidemic processes on temporal tree networks. On arbitrary networks, the proposed pair-based model provides a substantial increase in accuracy at a low computational and conceptual cost compared to the individual-based model. From the pair-based model, we analytically find the condition necessary for an epidemic to occur, otherwise known as the epidemic threshold. Due to the fact that the SIR model has only one stable fixed point, which is the global non-infected state, we identify an epidemic by looking at the initial stability of the model.

A Systematic Framework of Modelling Epidemics on Temporal Networks

The information environment we need would ensure information that is Rapid: facilitating new research, evidence aggregation, and critique in real-time Relevant: managing information flood while delivering information in contents and formats that match the needs of diverse users, from scientists to policy makers Reliable: generating and promoting high quality content The workshop will bring together an interdisciplinary group of experts and practitioners to help conceptualise, plan and build the tools for such an environment.

SciBeh 2020 Workshop on "Building an online information environment for policy relevant science"

Finally, I’d like to correct the ByLine article where it mentions me (in relation to the March claims by Prof Gupta above): I’m not the head of the UCL Institute for Global Health, though I do work there. 8/8

I am a signatory of the other letter: https://twitter.com/martinmckee/status/1308043860652830721?s=20… One the positive side both letters do agree that the NHS should be kept open for all The disagreement is in how much of a risk Covid is and how we deal with it. 7/8

b)It doesn’t acknowledge the risks of long-Covid c)It claims no link between restrictions and mortality 6/8

So I question the scientific judgement of the Sikora-Gupta-Heneghan letter, and probably should just stick to that: a)The letter offers no practical way to separate low and high risk given the reality of multi-generation households, the workforce and society more broadly 5/8

With others I challenged that at the time as dangerous: https://ft.com/content/ebab9fcc-6e8d-11ea-9bca-bf503995cd6f… 4/8

There is relevant history with many of the authors of the letter including Prof Gupta who claimed in March without any evidence that 50% of the UK had already been infected: https://ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b… 3/8

I think the issues raised in the article are worth discussing and not comparable with Gates “mind-control vaccines” and am glad that some people have engaged with them. 2/8

Some reflections on this: Firstly, I can see the article uses inflammatory language so apologise for that and any offence caused. They were genuine questions in my Tweet though and I was not expecting to be called deranged for posting it. 1/8

New epidemiological model shows urgent need for large-scale testing

Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study

Nafeez Ahmed reveals how a high-profile letter to Boris Johnson was based on ‘fringe pseudoscience’ and co-drafted by a Government advisor who downplayed the COVID-19 death toll

Scamademics?Right-Wing Lobbying Groups Reviving ‘Herd Immunity’ in the UK

Blood donations suggest that up to half of Manaus was infected at the epidemic’s peak

A Brazilian city devastated by COVID-19 may have reached herd immunity

The Sunshine Act shed some light on industry influence over medicine. Paul D Thacker helped pass the bill but says one small step for medicine is no giant leap for science

10.1136/bmj.m3229

A few tiny steps towards transparency: how the Sunshine Act shone light on industry’s influence in medicine

Today, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration issued an emergency use authorization (EUA) for the first serology (antibody) point-of-care (POC) test for COVID-19. The Assure COVID-19 IgG/IgM Rapid Test Device was first authorized for emergency use by certain labs in July 2020 to help identify individuals with antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, indicating recent or prior COVID-19 infection. Today, that EUA is being reissued to authorize the test for POC use using fingerstick blood samples. This authorization means that fingerstick blood samples can now be tested in POC settings like doctor’s offices, hospitals, urgent care centers and emergency rooms rather than having to be sent to a central lab for testing.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Authorizes First Point-of-Care Antibody Test for COVID-19

Below is a 3 group WAIFW with different Pr of connections in each group (by color) and between groups. Essentially WAIFW is a stratified random mixing model

Because I did a bad job of defining WAIFW: it is the Who Acquires Infection From Whom matrix. Rather than random edges between persons, WAIFW generates edges random at \beta_w for connections in the group and \beta_o for outside

Ultimately, the (possibly) unobserved network matters. If your model only assumes some random mixing parameter for broad groups of people, your model is probably way too simple to say anything meaningful about what policies we should actually consider

If your strategy is instead to vaccinate the persons with household-only contacts then you will have to go above the threshold

If your strategy is to vaccinate the between-household contacts, you can be lower than the threshold

Network 4: Household Network This last network is variation on the previous clustered network. It instead places people into households. Depending on the vaccination strategy used, we can go above or below the 'threshold'

This network is closer to how human interactions are actually structured. This is also closer to WAIFW setups (but WAIFW won't capture the power-law for degree within clusters that the above network has)

Network 3: Clustered Network In a clustered network, we can go above the herd immunity threshold but still have outbreaks. The following network has 75% vaccinated but an outbreak would occur

"Paul, all you have shown is that you can effectively go below the threshold. That doesn't negate the whole concept. We might instead say we need *at least* the threshold" Bad news my imaginary interlocutor

Network 2: Mesh Network Well it looks like a big ole net. We can guarantee no transmission with only 50% vaccinated. Less than the supposed threshold

Network 1: Random Mixing When someone talks about a threshold for herd immunity, this is the underlying network of what they are generally talking about (setting aside WAIFW for the moment). The threshold calculation applies normally

In all the following networks, the elements of R_0 are held constant. The network structure will change; but the \beta look the same despite that Our R_0 will be 3, meaning the herd immunity threshold is 0.67 (but everything applies to other R_0 > 1)

To show this, let's talk about a perfect vaccine. If you get this vaccine you are perfectly protected from the infection and thus cannot transmit it (everything also applies to imperfect vaccines but it's messier) Blue circles are vaccinated individuals and red are unvaccinated

where \beta is the effective contact rate, N is the number of individuals, and r is the inverse of the duration The threshold says if are above that level the disease will disappear / we expect no outbreaks of disease. However, that threshold is neither sufficient nor necessary

Herd immunity is a far squishier concept then many seem to be describing in their "shielding" or "stratified herd immunity" plans. Here is the formula for herd immunity threshold for a SIR model

The celebrated economist has built a data tool with a God’s-eye view of the pandemic’s damage—and soaring inequality.

Harvard’s Chetty Finds Economic Carnage in Wealthiest ZIP Codes

The appeal of herd immunity is easy to understand: if it is reached, an epidemic ends. But the illness and death such an approach would require have prompted a strong backlash. The language of herd immunity is part of the problem. A herd usually describes domesticated animals, especially livestock. Herd animals like cows, goats, or sheep are sacrificed for human consumption. Few humans want to be part of that kind of herd.

10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31924-3

A history of herd immunity

Neil Ferguson is known to many as Professor Lockdown. The mathematical models he created to predict the spread of Covid-19 were influential but, he says, it took him quite a long time to be persuaded that full lockdown was a good idea. A physicist by training, Neil switched from studying string theory to the spread of disease and presented scientific advice to government during the BSE crisis, an outbreak of foot and mouth disease in livestock in 2001 and the swine flu pandemic of 2009. In January 2020, he issued his first report on Covid-19 estimating the extent of the outbreak in Wuhan City in China. In March, he predicted that 510,000 people in the UK could die if nothing was done to mitigate the spread of this pandemic. Does he stand by that prediction? And how worried is he now? Jim Al-Khalili talks to Neil Ferguson about his life and work, the tricky relationship between politics and science and asks if he has any regrets about lockdown.

Neil Ferguson on modelling Covid-19

10.31234/osf.io/ykupt

Western democracies, most notably the United States, have recently experienced a wave of protests, some characterized by lethal violence. While police brutality served as a catalyst, the eruption of protests coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic---the most severe global crisis of the 21st century. The pandemic has caused, inter alia, social stress, marginalization, and loss of economic status, which constitute psychological elicitors of aggression. Given this, we examined whether the psychological burden of the COVID-19 pandemic promotes anti-systemic attitudes and behavior. Analyses of two-wave panel data collected in April--July 2020 in the US, Denmark, Italy, and Hungary (N = 10,699), indicated that COVID-19 burden increased sentiments to ``watch the world burn'' and intentions to engage in political violence but not in peaceful protests. In the US, COVID-19 burden furthermore predicted engagement in the most violent actions during the George Floyd protests and counter-protests, including physical confrontation with the police. These results suggest that a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic during the fall of 2020 may increase the risk of political violence in Western democracies, especially in contexts of potential political instability, such as the US presidential election.

The psychological burden of the COVID-19 pandemic drives anti-systemic attitudes and political violence

The K-shaped recovery applies to geography too. 

Why New York’s in a Depression and Texas Isn’t

The COVID-19 pandemic is an unprecedented global crisis. Many countries have implemented restrictions on population movement to slow the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and prevent health systems from becoming overwhelmed; some have instituted full or partial lockdowns. However, lockdowns and other extreme restrictions cannot be sustained for the long term in the hope that there will be an effective vaccine or treatment for COVID-19. Governments worldwide now face the common challenge of easing lockdowns and restrictions while balancing various health, social, and economic concerns. To facilitate cross-country learning, this Health Policy paper uses an adapted framework to examine the approaches taken by nine high-income countries and regions that have started to ease COVID-19 restrictions: five in the Asia Pacific region (ie, Hong Kong [Special Administrative Region], Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, and South Korea) and four in Europe (ie, Germany, Norway, Spain, and the UK). This comparative analysis presents important lessons to be learnt from the experiences of these countries and regions. Although the future of the virus is unknown at present, countries should continue to share their experiences, shield populations who are at risk, and suppress transmission to save lives.

10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32007-9

Lessons learnt from easing COVID-19 restrictions: an analysis of countries and regions in Asia Pacific and Europe

With a corona study at Deutsche Bahn, the Charité Research Organization provides scientific findings on the infection process in trains. The result: "Train travel is safe," says DB Passenger Transport Board Member Berthold Huber.

Corona study: trains are safe, no increased risk

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed weaknesses in health and care systems and global public health responses, some of which can be addressed through data and digital science. The Riyadh Declaration on Digital Health was formulated during the Riyadh Global Digital Health Summit, Aug 11–12, 2020, a landmark forum that highlighted the importance of digital technology, data, and innovation for resilient global health and care systems.

10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31978-4

The Riyadh Declaration: the role of digital health in fighting pandemics

As the coronavirus continues its assault on the United States, throwing all aspects of everyday life into upheaval, the courts offer a lens into how treacherous things have gotten in one of those arenas -- the American workplace.

A 'tidal wave' of Covid-related workplace lawsuits could be on the way

When the scale of the coronavirus pandemic became clear in March, people with symptoms were advised to contact NHS 111. Olufemi did so. But his family fear he was given the wrong advice

Blue lips and black skin: Did a standard 111 question help cause Olufemi Akinnola’s death from Covid-19?

Without a vaccine, building up population-level immunity to the Covid-19 coronavirus could take a year or more and catching the virus does not necessarily provide lasting protection, writes Professor Devi Sridhar.

Covid-19: 'Herd immunity' strategy is flawed until we have a coronavirus vaccine – Professor Devi Sridhar

“We know there is a tsunami outside. We know it’s going to hit the beach. We just don’t know when,” said Donald Wise, a commercial real estate expert and co-founder and senior managing director at Turnbull Capital Group.The steep decline in tourism and business travel has devastated the hotel industry.“We anticipate many hotels won’t survive,” said Heather Rozman, executive director of the Hotel Assn. of Los Angeles. “Industry data shows 1 in 4 properties already are struggling to pay mortgages, risking foreclosure.”

‘Tsunami’ of hotel closures is coming, experts warn

Two years ago, Reddit had the internet’s biggest QAnon problem. Today, that problem is gone—but the company can’t really explain why.

Reddit Squashed QAnon by Accident

the Knesset House Committee approved a special session of the Knesset plenum later Thursday, that will be the final step in authorizing the lockdown.

Gov't approves total coronavirus lockdown starting Friday

The U.K. map gets redder as daily cases reach 14000 and R=1.4 . Our data are over double govt figures based solely on testing. Worrying to see London cases accelerating for the first time since April and student mobility not going to help. Keep logging!

Sceptics who talk up 'false positives' are engaging in wishful thinking

Is this the second wave?

COVID may have provided an opening, if we're willing to take it.

A Different Theory of Economic Development

As much as people might be fearful today, and as much as important aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic remain to be understood, medical science has illuminated a path not only to understanding the biology of this coronavirus but also to defining ways to control its spread. The international research community has provided the foundation for protecting and strengthening our societies. Despite political disagreements and policy uncertainties, there is one proposition we can perhaps agree on—scientists, from molecular biologists to mathematical modellers, epidemiologists to pathologists, have mobilised their skills as never before. Their contributions must be remembered.

10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31951-6

Offline: Remembering the scientists

COVID-19: open, reasoned, detailed, discussion of the options is overdue and welcome At last, differing perspectives are being aired. This is healthy. People are mostly well educated and understand the situation, and are stoical. They and their elected representatives in Parliament must no longer be sidelined. We must hear their voice. However, there is no reason to divide into camps, and I do not see myself as being in one. As one of those calling for public debate and involvement including on the issue of population immunity, a phrase which should replace herd immunity for human populations, I welcome this exchange of knowledge and opinion.

10.1136/bmj.m3702

Covid-19: Experts divide into two camps of action—shielding versus blanket policies

Be creative and keep methodology in mind: two key takeaways from the APS webinar Online Research: Tools and Techniques.

Online Research: From Funding to Data Collection

As public health officials raise alarms about surging coronavirus cases among young people, new research suggests that Americans under 25 are most likely to believe virus-related misinformation about the severity of the disease and how it originated.

Young People More Likely to Believe Virus Misinformation, Study Says

Diagnosing previous infection with respiratory viruses is challenging. Our understanding of individual and population-level immunity to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remains incomplete and developing reliable serological assays to detect previous infection has been an intense focus of the global scientific effort. For public health planning we need scalable assays validated against large banks of samples from individuals who had proven seasonal (non-severe acute respiratory syndrome) coronaviruses and those who had well characterised symptomatic and asymptomatic confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. False-positive results, due to cross-reactivity with seasonal coronaviruses, are important to avoid, particularly if seropositive-individuals consider themselves immune

10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30699-X

The complexities of SARS-CoV-2 serology

As rates of new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases decline across Europe owing to nonpharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing policies and lockdown measures, countries require guidance on how to ease restrictions while minimizing the risk of resurgent outbreaks. We use mobility and case data to quantify how coordinated exit strategies could delay continental resurgence and limit community transmission of COVID-19. We find that a resurgent continental epidemic could occur as many as 5 weeks earlier when well-connected countries with stringent existing interventions end their interventions prematurely. Further, we find that appropriate coordination can greatly improve the likelihood of eliminating community transmission throughout Europe. In particular, synchronizing intermittent lockdowns across Europe means that half as many lockdown periods would be required to end continent-wide community transmission.

10.1126/science.abc5096

Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe

BackgroundTo date, research on the indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the health of the population and the health-care system is scarce. We aimed to investigate the indirect effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on general practice health-care usage, and the subsequent diagnoses of common physical and mental health conditions in a deprived UK population.MethodsWe did a retrospective cohort study using routinely collected primary care data that was recorded in the Salford Integrated Record between Jan 1, 2010, and May 31, 2020. We extracted the weekly number of clinical codes entered into patient records overall, and for six high-level categories: symptoms and observations, diagnoses, prescriptions, operations and procedures, laboratory tests, and other diagnostic procedures. Negative binomial regression models were applied to monthly counts of first diagnoses of common conditions (common mental health problems, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, and cancer), and corresponding first prescriptions of medications indicative of these conditions. We used these models to predict the expected numbers of first diagnoses and first prescriptions between March 1 and May 31, 2020, which were then compared with the observed numbers for the same time period.FindingsBetween March 1 and May 31, 2020, 1073 first diagnoses of common mental health problems were reported compared with 2147 expected cases (95% CI 1821 to 2489) based on preceding years, representing a 50·0% reduction (95% CI 41·1 to 56·9). Compared with expected numbers, 456 fewer diagnoses of circulatory system diseases (43·3% reduction, 95% CI 29·6 to 53·5), and 135 fewer type 2 diabetes diagnoses (49·0% reduction, 23·8 to 63·1) were observed. The number of first prescriptions of associated medications was also lower than expected for the same time period. However, the gap between observed and expected cancer diagnoses (31 fewer; 16·0% reduction, −18·1 to 36·6) during this time period was not statistically significant.InterpretationIn this deprived urban population, diagnoses of common conditions decreased substantially between March and May 2020, suggesting a large number of patients have undiagnosed conditions. A rebound in future workload could be imminent as COVID-19 restrictions ease and patients with undiagnosed conditions or delayed diagnosis present to primary and secondary health-care services. Such services should prioritise the diagnosis and treatment of these patients to mitigate potential indirect harms to protect public health.

10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30201-2

Diagnosis of physical and mental health conditions in primary care during the COVID-19 pandemic: a retrospective cohort study