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  1. Jun 2021
    1. 2021-06-26

    2. Jeremy Faust MD MS (ER physician) on Twitter: “Number of Covid cases among children in US: >4 million. Number of Covid deaths in US children: 300-400. Number of kids vaccinated: 7 million. Number of kids who died from vaccine-related myocarditis: Zero. #vaccinate @bhrenton @RickABright @angie_rasmussen @celinegounder” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved June 28, 2021, from https://twitter.com/jeremyfaust/status/1408880589319647243?s=20

    3. Number of Covid cases among children in US: >4 million. Number of Covid deaths in US children: 300-400. Number of kids vaccinated: 7 million. Number of kids who died from vaccine-related myocarditis: zero. #vaccinate @bhrenton @RickABright @angie_rasmussen @celinegounder
    1. 2021-06-25

    2. Duarte-Salles, T., & Prieto-Alhambra, D. (2021). Heterologous vaccine regimens against COVID-19. The Lancet, S0140673621014422. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01442-2

    3. 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01442-2
    4. The rapid development of vaccines against COVID-19 is the biggest achievement of science in the fight against the pandemic. Although the efficacy and safety of all approved vaccines have been demonstrated in large clinical trials, recent safety signals have been reported,1European Medicines AgencyAstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine: EMA finds possible link to very rare cases of unusual blood clots with low blood platelets.https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-ema-finds-possible-link-very-rare-cases-unusual-blood-clots-low-bloodDate: April 7, 2021Date accessed: June 16, 2021Google Scholar,  2European Medicines AgencyCOVID-19 vaccines: update on ongoing evaluation of myocarditis and pericarditis.https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/covid-19-vaccines-update-ongoing-evaluation-myocarditis-pericarditisDate: June 11, 2021Date accessed: June 16, 2021Google Scholar highlighting the importance of post-marketing surveillance with study populations larger than those of the trials, and representative of populations receiving vaccines as part of routine clinical practice. Safety concerns regarding the ChAdOx1-S vaccine have led some European countries (eg, Denmark) to minimise its use, with other countries recommending the switch from the trial-tested homologous booster to a heterologous booster, such as with BNT162b2.3European Centre for Disease Prevention and ControlOverview of EU/EEA country recommendations on COVID-19 vaccination with Vaxzevria, and a scoping review of evidence to guide decision-making. 18 May 2021. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm2021Google Scholar This recommendation has come as a surprise to some, because abundant data on more than 9 million people suggested a much reduced risk of thrombotic events with the second dose of ChAdOx1-S.4Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory AgencyCoronavirus vaccine—weekly summary of Yellow Card reporting.https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions/coronavirus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reportingDate: June 10, 2021Date accessed: June 16, 2021Google Scholar In contrast, the evidence for the effectiveness and safety of heterologous vaccination regimens remains limited, and based on small phase 2 trials and cohort studies including fewer than 500 participants.5Shaw RH Stuart A Greenland M et al.Heterologous prime-boost COVID-19 vaccination: initial reactogenicity data.Lancet. 2021; 397: 2043-2046Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Google Scholar,  6Schmidt T Klemis V Schub D et al.Immunogenicity and reactogenicity of a heterologous COVID-19 prime-boost vaccination compared with homologous vaccine regimens.medRxiv. 2021; (published online June 15.) (preprint).https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.06.13.21258859Google ScholarIn The Lancet, Alberto Borobia and colleagues7Borobia AM Carcas AJ Pérez-Olmeda M et al.Immunogenicity and reactogenicity of BNT162b2 booster in ChAdOx1S-primed participants (CombiVacS): a multicentre, open-label, randomised, controlled, phase 2 trial.Lancet. 2021; (published online June 25.)https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01420-3Google Scholar report the first results of a phase 2 trial in five university hospitals across Spain assessing the immunogenicity and reactogenicity of the BNT162b2 vaccine administered as second dose in people primed with ChAdOx1-S. The study included 676 adults aged 18–60 years (mean age 44 years [SD 9]; 382 [57%] women and 294 [43%] men) followed up for 14 days, and showed that BNT162b2, given as a second dose 8–12 weeks after a first dose of ChAdOx1-S, induced a robust immune response and mild reactogenicity. This trial compared this heterologous vaccine regimen to no booster vaccination, and the lack of a homologous vaccination comparator is a limitation of the study,8Comunicado de 17 Sociedades Científicas sobre las vacunas para la COVID-19.https://www.actasanitaria.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Comunicado-Vacunas-SSCC-VF.pdfDate: April 30, 2021Date accessed: June 18, 2021Google Scholar because it does not allow for a direct comparison of the vaccination schedules used in current clinical practice. As in most phase 2 trials, the study has limited representativeness with strict eligibility criteria, including the exclusion of vulnerable and elderly people. This decision is in discord with the global prioritisation of these groups for vaccination.
    5. Heterologous vaccine regimens against COVID-19
    1. 2021-06-25

    2. Borobia, A. M., Carcas, A. J., Pérez-Olmeda, M., Castaño, L., Bertran, M. J., García-Pérez, J., Campins, M., Portolés, A., González-Pérez, M., García Morales, M. T., Arana-Arri, E., Aldea, M., Díez-Fuertes, F., Fuentes, I., Ascaso, A., Lora, D., Imaz-Ayo, N., Barón-Mira, L. E., Agustí, A., … Torvisco, J. M. (2021). Immunogenicity and reactogenicity of BNT162b2 booster in ChAdOx1-S-primed participants (CombiVacS): A multicentre, open-label, randomised, controlled, phase 2 trial. The Lancet, S0140673621014203. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01420-3

    3. 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01420-3
    4. BackgroundTo date, no immunological data on COVID-19 heterologous vaccination schedules in humans have been reported. We assessed the immunogenicity and reactogenicity of BNT162b2 (Comirnaty, BioNTech, Mainz, Germany) administered as second dose in participants primed with ChAdOx1-S (Vaxzevria, AstraZeneca, Oxford, UK).MethodsWe did a phase 2, open-label, randomised, controlled trial on adults aged 18–60 years, vaccinated with a single dose of ChAdOx1-S 8–12 weeks before screening, and no history of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Participants were randomly assigned (2:1) to receive either BNT162b2 (0·3 mL) via a single intramuscular injection (intervention group) or continue observation (control group). The primary outcome was 14-day immunogenicity, measured by immunoassays for SARS-CoV-2 trimeric spike protein and receptor binding domain (RBD). Antibody functionality was assessed using a pseudovirus neutralisation assay, and cellular immune response using an interferon-γ immunoassay. The safety outcome was 7-day reactogenicity, measured as solicited local and systemic adverse events. The primary analysis included all participants who received at least one dose of BNT162b2 and who had at least one efficacy evaluation after baseline. The safety analysis included all participants who received BNT162b2. This study is registered with EudraCT (2021-001978-37) and ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04860739), and is ongoing.FindingsBetween April 24 and 30, 2021, 676 individuals were enrolled and randomly assigned to either the intervention group (n=450) or control group (n=226) at five university hospitals in Spain (mean age 44 years [SD 9]; 382 [57%] women and 294 [43%] men). 663 (98%) participants (n=441 intervention, n=222 control) completed the study up to day 14. In the intervention group, geometric mean titres of RBD antibodies increased from 71·46 BAU/mL (95% CI 59·84–85·33) at baseline to 7756·68 BAU/mL (7371·53–8161·96) at day 14 (p<0·0001). IgG against trimeric spike protein increased from 98·40 BAU/mL (95% CI 85·69–112·99) to 3684·87 BAU/mL (3429·87–3958·83). The interventional:control ratio was 77·69 (95% CI 59·57–101·32) for RBD protein and 36·41 (29·31–45·23) for trimeric spike protein IgG. Reactions were mild (n=1210 [68%]) or moderate (n=530 [30%]), with injection site pain (n=395 [88%]), induration (n=159 [35%]), headache (n=199 [44%]), and myalgia (n=194 [43%]) the most commonly reported adverse events. No serious adverse events were reported.InterpretationBNT162b2 given as a second dose in individuals prime vaccinated with ChAdOx1-S induced a robust immune response, with an acceptable and manageable reactogenicity profile.
    5. Immunogenicity and reactogenicity of BNT162b2 booster in ChAdOx1-S-primed participants (CombiVacS): a multicentre, open-label, randomised, controlled, phase 2 trial
    1. 2021-06-25

    2. Jeffrey Ely on Twitter: “The base-rate fallacy is about to become a daily nuisance when it comes to processing outbreak data in highly vaccinated societies. Here’s a cautionary tale.” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved June 28, 2021, from https://twitter.com/Jeffely/status/1408500890999328770

    3. The base-rate fallacy is about to become a daily nuisance when it comes to processing outbreak data in highly vaccinated societies. Here's a cautionary tale.
    1. 2021-06-25

    2. Christophe Fraser 💙 on Twitter: “Reading Cummings accounts of early creation of Test & Trace, a question I have is when and how it was morphed from aiming to find ~30 contacts per index case, needed to contain spread, into a service that contacts 2-4 contacts per index case, mostly within household.” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved June 28, 2021, from https://twitter.com/ChristoPhraser/status/1408454903249477632

    3. The key concept is that by contacting and isolating most contacts quickly, leading to successful containment, then it results in far less isolation and disruption for most people over the long run.
    4. For the future, we need to develop capacity, multiple tools, and systems for containment of new pathogens. Lockdowns can be a failsafe, but test & trace is key for rapid initial containment.
    5. Reading Cummings accounts of early creation of Test & Trace, a question I have is when and how it was morphed from aiming to find ~30 contacts per index case, needed to contain spread, into a service that contacts 2-4 contacts per index case, mostly within household.
    1. Adding Fiji
    2. Adding Zambia, where Delta has reached 77% prevalence for infections and Uganda is at 97% https://nytimes.com/live/2021/06/25/world/covid-vaccine-coronavirus-mask#across-africa-the-delta-variant-is-driving-a-third-wave-of-the-virus-experts-say
    3. 2021-06-24

    4. Eric Topol on Twitter: “As the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) becomes dominant throughout the world, there are 2 patterns emerging: —Countries w/ low vaccination rates are seeing both case and fatality rates increase—Countries w/ high vaccination rate: Some case increase and minimal to no fatality increase https://t.co/sSE4RlSeUJ” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved June 28, 2021, from https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1408195243279667204

    5. As the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) becomes dominant throughout the world, there are 2 patterns emerging: —Countries w/ low vaccination rates are seeing both case and fatality rates increase —Countries w/ high vaccination rate: some case increase and minimal to no fatality increase
    1. 2021-03-27

    2. Mylan, S., & Hardman, C. (2021). COVID-19, cults, and the anti-vax movement. The Lancet, 397(10280), 1181. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00443-8

    3. 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00443-8
    4. Rochelle Burgess and colleagues1Burgess RA Osborne RH Yongabi KA et al.The COVID-19 vaccine rush: participatory community engagement matters more than ever.Lancet. 2021; 397: 8-10Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (12) Google Scholar eloquently described participatory community engagement as essential for successful COVID-19 vaccination, which involves appreciating the heterogeneous public and working with communities and their leaders to enable bottom-up approaches. They suggested that COVID-19 has drawn attention to the structural violence that is embedded within society, with the pandemic furthering the marginalisation of historically oppressed and excluded groups. Burgess and colleagues1Burgess RA Osborne RH Yongabi KA et al.The COVID-19 vaccine rush: participatory community engagement matters more than ever.Lancet. 2021; 397: 8-10Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (12) Google Scholar drew attention to how people who might have suffered disproportionate economic and health consequences from COVID-19 are now being asked “to trust the same structures”1Burgess RA Osborne RH Yongabi KA et al.The COVID-19 vaccine rush: participatory community engagement matters more than ever.Lancet. 2021; 397: 8-10Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (12) Google Scholar that failed to provide adequate resources and social protection during the pandemic. Failure to address these contextual dimensions can worsen mistrust, damaging vaccine uptake. However, Burgess and colleagues make a distinction between “people wholly opposed to vaccinations (anti-vaxxers) and…vaccine hesitancy”,1Burgess RA Osborne RH Yongabi KA et al.The COVID-19 vaccine rush: participatory community engagement matters more than ever.Lancet. 2021; 397: 8-10Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (12) Google Scholar and imply participatory community engagement as a means to engage only people with vaccine hesitancy.
    5. COVID-19, cults, and the anti-vax movement
    1. 2021-03-26

    2. Larson, H. J., & Broniatowski, D. A. (2021). Volatility of vaccine confidence. Science, 371(6536), 1289–1289. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abi6488

    3. 10.1126/science.abi6488
    4. Last week, the European Medicines Agency declared the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine safe and effective, after several European Union member states had suspended its use because of blood clot concerns. Will the public trust this message? This week's news could help—a U.S. phase 3 clinical trial of the vaccine shows promising efficacy in preventing symptomatic COVID-19. But sentiments toward vaccines are volatile and reflect external events—such as recent concern about AstraZeneca's efficacy data—as well as internal emotions.
    5. Volatility of vaccine confidence
    1. 2021-04-08

    2. The unequal burden of covid-19 is etched along ethnic and racial lines. [1] While the risks from covid-19 are now better established, mitigation efforts remain insufficient, particularly among more marginalised groups. More recently, vaccine uptake reveals a disturbing pattern that exposes continued racial inequalities. Health inequalities occur when populations are made vulnerable to diseases through inequitable distribution of support or protection, increasing the risk of illness and death. The lower covid-19 vaccine take-up in some ethnic minorities follows a historical trend, but this should not be normalised or even exist today. 
    3. What is behind the low covid-19 vaccine take-up in some ethnic minorities? 
    1. 2021-04-14

    2. Covid-19 vaccine did not kill every animal it was tested on—Full Fact. (n.d.). Retrieved June 27, 2021, from https://fullfact.org/online/covid-vaccine-animal-testing/

    3. What was claimed All animals used in Covid-19 vaccine trials died months later from immune disorders, sepsis and/or cardiac failure. Our verdict There is no evidence for this.. The claim is based on a 2012 study looking at different vaccines. The animals, in this case mice, were euthanized as is standard procedure in this sort of trial. They did not die “months later” as claimed.
    4. Covid-19 vaccine did not kill every animal it was tested on
    1. 2021-04-07

    2. Regev-Yochay, G., Amit, S., Bergwerk, M., Lipsitch, M., Leshem, E., Kahn, R., Lustig, Y., Cohen, C., Doolman, R., Ziv, A., Novikov, I., Rubin, C., Gimpelevich, I., Huppert, A., Rahav, G., Afek, A., & Kreiss, Y. (2021). Decreased Infectivity Following BNT162b2 Vaccination. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3815668

    3. Background: BNT162b2 was shown to be 92% effective in preventing COVID-19. Prioritizing vaccine rollout, and achievement of herd immunity depend on SARS-CoV-2 transmission reduction. The vaccine’s effect on infectivity is thus a critical priority.Methods: In a cohort of all 9650 HCW of a large single tertiary medical center, we calculated the prevalence of positive SAR-CoV-2 qRT-PCR cases with an asymptomatic presentation, tested following known or presumed exposure and the infectious subset (N-gene-Ct-value<30) of these and the prevalence of never-symptomatic infections. Additionally, infection incidence rates were calculated for symptomatic cases and infectious (Ct<30) cases. Vaccine effectiveness within three months of vaccine rollout was measured as one minus the relative risk or rate ratio, respectively. To further assess infectiousness, we compared the mean Ct-value and the proportion of infections with a positive SARS-CoV-2 antigen test of vaccinated vs. unvaccinated. The correlation between IgG levels within the week before detection and Ct level was assessed.Findings: Reduced prevalence among fully vaccinated HCW was observed for (i) infections detected due to exposure, with asymptomatic presentation (VE(i)=65.1%, 95%CI 45-79%), (ii) the presumed infectious (Ct<30) subset of these (VE(ii)=69.6%, 95%CI 43-84%) (iii) never-symptomatic infections (VE(iii)=72.3%, 95%CI 48-86%), and (iv) the presumed infectious (Ct<30) subset (VE(iv)=83.0%, 95%CI 51-94%).Incidence of (v) symptomatic and (vi) symptomatic-infectious cases was significantly lower among fully vaccinated vs. unvaccinated individuals (VE(v)= 89.7%, 95%CI 84-94%, VE(vi)=88.1%, 95%CI 80-95%).The mean Ct-value was significantly higher in vaccinated vs. unvaccinated (27.3±1.2 vs. 22.2±1.0, p<0.001) and the proportion of positive SARS-CoV-2 antigen tests was also significantly lower among vaccinated vs. unvaccinated PCR-positive HCW (80% vs. 31%, p<0.001). Lower infectivity was correlated with higher IgG concentrations (R=0.36, p=0.01).Interpretation: These results suggest that BNT162b2 is moderately to highly effective in reducing infectivity, via preventing infection and through reducing viral shedding. 
    4. Decreased Infectivity Following BNT162b2 Vaccination
    1. 2021-05-20

    2. Michael Makris on Twitter: “The cumulative incidence of VITT after AZ first vaccination in the UK is continuing to increase with the latest data being 1 in 81,000. However this is rather misleading because VITT is age related with a higher incidence in the young. Https://t.co/CSjshAoRsN” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved June 27, 2021, from https://twitter.com/ProfMakris/status/1395457748721184777?s=20

    3. The cumulative incidence of VITT after AZ first vaccination in the UK is continuing to increase with the latest data being 1 in 81,000. However this is rather misleading because VITT is age related with a higher incidence in the young.
    4. 2021-05-17

    5. ViralFacts on Twitter: “Your questions answered: Why some COVID-19 vaccines require two doses #ViralFactsAfrica #VFACheck https://t.co/hytCd2pd80” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved June 26, 2021, from https://twitter.com/viralfacts/status/1394213113541574658

    6. Your questions answered: Why some COVID-19 vaccines require two doses #ViralFactsAfrica #VFACheck
    1. 2021-05-21

    2. Lewis Spurgin on Twitter: “Perhaps an under appreciated point with the B.1.617.2 variant is that regional PHE teams and local authorities across the country are putting in heroic amounts of effort to break chains of transmission. (1/2)” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved June 27, 2021, from https://twitter.com/LewisSpurgin/status/1395827267297759234

    3. It’s entirely possible that effective public health measures will be misconstrued as a fuss over nothing. (2/2)
    4. Perhaps an under appreciated point with the B.1.617.2 variant is that regional PHE teams and local authorities across the country are putting in heroic amounts of effort to break chains of transmission. (1/2)
    1. 2021-05-23

    2. Deepti Gurdasani on Twitter: “I’m still utterly stunned by yesterday’s events—Let me go over this in chronological order & why I’m shocked. - First, in the morning yesterday, we saw a ‘leaked’ report to FT which reported on @PHE_uk data that was not public at the time🧵” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved June 27, 2021, from https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1396373990986375171

    3. I'm still utterly stunned by yesterday's events - let me go over this in chronological order & why I'm shocked. - first, in the morning yesterday, we saw a 'leaked' report to FT which reported on @PHE_uk data that was not public at the time
    1. 2021-05-11

    2. Challen, R., Dyson, L., Overton, C., Guzman-Rincon, L., Danon, L., & Gog, J. (n.d.). Briefing note: Potential community transmission of B.1.617.2 inferred by S-gene positivity. 18.

    3. SPI-M Roadmap modelling suggests new variants with increased transmissibility are capableof generating a wave of infections bigger than previous waves.●Incontrovertible evidence that B.1.617.2 is more transmissible may come too late.●It is possible the outbreak in India is partly the result of higher transmission of B.1.617.2.●In the face of uncertain evidence the risk of over-reacting seems small compared to thepotential benefit of delaying a third wave until more people are vaccinated.●Rapid containment in Bolton and Blackburn, Sefton, Liverpool, and the area around Bedfordis warranted. Surge testing for B.1.617.2 in these areas is needed.●Active surveillance for further outbreaks using S-gene positive tests results is valuable, andshould be extended to any areas that are not currently being tested with the TaqPath assay.●Aggressive use of asymptomatic testing, contact tracing and isolation of S-gene positive casesin targeted areas in the rest of the country may be needed to contain or delay outbreaks.●Surge vaccination is worth considering, however protection will take time to develop, so maynot be enough on its own. Surge vaccination will redistribute vaccines, and require increasedlocal resources, may not be achievable if growth continues.●We can translate a difference in growth rates, using the following quick conversions. Thisassumes the same generation times for S-gene positives and negatives. If the S-gene positiveshave a growth rate of -0.05, then we see that positive growth of S-gene positives implies atransmission advantage of more than 1.4 times the S-gene negatives.
    4. Briefing note: Potential community transmission ofB.1.617.2 inferred by S-gene positivity.
    1. 2021-05-21

    2. Thomas Rhys Evans on Twitter: “🚨 Get Involved 🚨 #OpenScience practices and preregistration are all well and good, but do they help with applied and consultancy research? 🧵...” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved June 27, 2021, from https://twitter.com/ThomasRhysEvans/status/1395752110088675328

    3. Direct link: https://psyarxiv.com/snj2d Like what you read? You can use the plaudits on PsyArXiv to give us a before we submit it for publication. Publicly comment using @hypothes_is, drop me an email, tweet or DM us! All feedback welcome!Preregistration of Applied Research for Evidence-Based PracticeWithin the context of the current replication and credibility crisis, open science practices have been pivotal in facilitating greater transparency in research. However, practices like preregistrat...psyarxiv.com
    4. But what do you think? We’d really appreciate your feedback on our ideas and recommendations...Quote TweetPsyArXiv-bot@PsyArXivBot · 21 MayPreregistration of Applied Research for Evidence-Based Practice https://zpr.io/RDSDF
    5. Preregistration templates will need to change, we’ll need to apply them more iteratively, and we need wider structural change driven by better education, to build incentives for all parties...
    6. But major issues with practicalities, stakeholders and even preregistration as a practice, suggest that benefits are going to be tricky to realise...
    7. We (@PeterBranney, @DrAClements and @ehancockjohnson) think #preregistration might be of benefit for these, and other issues (e.g. questionable researcher practices)...
    8. The #replicationcrisis has changed basic research norms dramatically but not applied research so much. There are massive issues with accessibility, big file-drawers, and low transparency...
    9. Get Involved #OpenScience practices and preregistration are all well and good, but do they help with applied and consultancy research? ...
    1. 2021-05-21

    2. Evans, T. R., Branney, P., Clements, A., & Hatton, E. (2021). Preregistration of Applied Research for Evidence-Based Practice [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/snj2d

    3. 10.31234/osf.io/snj2d
    4. Within the context of the current replication and credibility crisis, open science practices have been pivotal in facilitating greater transparency in research. However, practices like preregistration have been applied nearly exclusively to basic academic research, with very rare consideration of, or application to, applied and consultancy-based research. This is particularly problematic as such research typically represents very low levels of transparency and accountability despite being disseminated as influential grey literature to inform practice. Evidence-based practice is best served by an appreciation of multiple sources of quality evidence, thus the current review considers the potential of preregistration to improve both the credibility and accessibility of applied research towards more rigorous evidence-based practice. The current review critically evaluates the strengths, concerns and opportunities for preregistration of applied research activity, and provides recommendations for academics, industry, and the structures they are held within, to consider such potential.
    5. Preregistration of Applied Research for Evidence-Based Practice
    1. 2021-06-22

    2. Knock, E. S., Whittles, L. K., Lees, J. A., Perez-Guzman, P. N., Verity, R., FitzJohn, R. G., Gaythorpe, K. A. M., Imai, N., Hinsley, W., Okell, L. C., Rosello, A., Kantas, N., Walters, C. E., Bhatia, S., Watson, O. J., Whittaker, C., Cattarino, L., Boonyasiri, A., Djaafara, B. A., … Baguelin, M. (2021). Key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions in the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England. Science Translational Medicine, eabg4262. https://doi.org/10.1126/scitranslmed.abg4262

    3. 10.1126/scitranslmed.abg4262
    4. We fitted a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in care homes and the community to regional surveillance data for England. Compared with other approaches, our model provides a synthesis of multiple surveillance data streams into a single coherent modelling framework allowing transmission and severity to be disentangled from features of the surveillance system. Of the control measures implemented, only national lockdown brought the reproduction number (Rteff) below 1 consistently; if introduced one week earlier it could have reduced deaths in the first wave from an estimated 48,600 to 25,600 (95% credible interval [95%CrI]: 15,900–38,400). The infection fatality ratio decreased from 1.00% (95%CrI: 0.85%–1.21%) to 0.79% (95%CrI: 0.63%–0.99%), suggesting improved clinical care. The infection fatality ratio was higher in the elderly residing in care homes (23.3%, 95%CrI: 14.7%–35.2%) than those residing in the community (7.9%, 95%CrI: 5.9%–10.3%). On 2nd December 2020 England was still far from herd immunity, with regional cumulative infection incidence between 7.6% (95%CrI: 5.4%–10.2%) and 22.3% (95%CrI: 19.4%–25.4%) of the population. Therefore, any vaccination campaign will need to achieve high coverage and a high degree of protection in vaccinated individuals to allow non-pharmaceutical interventions to be lifted without a resurgence of transmission.
    5. Key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions in the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England
    1. Metascience 2021. (n.d.). Retrieved June 27, 2021, from https://metascience2021.org/

    2. There is a long history of research about the scientific process, particularly with fields such as philosophy of science, sociology of science, and science-technology studies contributing unique insights about how science operates. There is also a growing cadre of researchers deploying modem methodologies and big data to investigate the scientific process. Together, these communities of researchers and stakeholders are the research and development pipeline for improving research practices. The Metascience 2021 meeting is a point of convergence to share knowledge, foster community, and define a roadmap of research and intervention priorities to accelerate science. 
    3. A GLOBAL VIRTUAL CONFERENCE
    1. 2021-05-26

    2. Brian Nosek on Twitter: “The Metascience 2021 conference is open for registration and submitting proposals for events and lightning talks. Visit: Https://t.co/kyVrQa6HBm Some additional information in the thread. Https://t.co/abRtDT1t3r” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved June 27, 2021, from https://twitter.com/BrianNosek/status/1397517047509274625

    3. The program may have some speculative "someone should do something" sessions, but more competitive proposals will be ones reporting on the something that someone is doing -- outcomes of research, description of an intervention or new practice, evaluation of what's working or not.
    4. Attend to diversity in social identities, career stage, and inclusion of communities that are underrepresented in science generally and metascience work particularly. No one session can represent everyone, but reviewers will be attending to this for the program as a whole.
    5. Avoid proposing "talking head" sessions. Events are more likely to be accepted if they have a well-defined theme, clear goals, and presenters with research or applied expertise on the topic.
    6. If you have a theme that is of broad interest, but don't know others outside your discipline working on it, reach out to me, @EvoMellor, or others. We are happy to help with matchmaking.
    7. Tips for proposing: For symposia and moderated discussions especially, avoid disciplinary silos for topics and proposed presenters. Select a meta-theme and recruit presenters investigating or conducting applied work on that theme from different disciplines or stakeholder groups
    8. The C-A-E sessions can highlight great successes or ideas that seemed sensible and were challenging to translate into practice, or had entirely unanticipated consequences. The key for these sessions is to get out of "in theory" and to report what is happening in practice.
    9. Events can be symposia, concept-action-evaluation sessions, moderated discussions, debates, or open Q&As. Concept-action-evaluations are "theory to action" sessions. Presenters will provide theoretical rationale for a reform, present an implementation and report outcome evidence
    10. The Metascience 2021 conference is open for registration and submitting proposals for events and lightning talks. Visit: http://metascience2021.org Some additional information in the thread.
    1. 2021-06-19

    2. Persoon, P. G. J. (2021). Cumulative structure and path length in networks of knowledge. ArXiv:2106.10480 [Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2106.10480

    3. 2106.10480v1
    4. An important knowledge dimension of science and technology is the extent to whichtheir development is cumulative, that is, the extent to which later findings build onearlier ones. Cumulative knowledge structures can be studied using a network ap-proach in which nodes represent findings and links represent knowledge flows. Ofparticular interest to those studies is the notion of network paths and path length.Starting from the Price model of network growth, we derive an exact solution for thepath length distribution of all unique paths from a given initial node to each node inthe network. We study the relative importance of the average in-degree and cumula-tive advantage effect and implement a generalization where the in-degree depends onthe number of nodes. The cumulative advantage effect is found to fundamentally slowdown path length growth. As the collection of all unique paths may contain manyredundancies, we additionally consider the subset of the longest paths to each node inthe network. As this case is more complicated, we only approximate the longest pathlength distribution in a simple context. Where the number of all unique paths of agiven length grows unbounded, the number of longest paths of a given length convergesto a finite limit, which depends exponentially on the given path length. Fundamentalnetwork properties and dynamics therefore characteristically shape cumulative struc-tures in those networks, and should therefore be taken into account when studyingthose structures
    5. Cumulative structure and path length in networks of knowledge
    1. 2021-04-02

    2. Thompson, M. G., Burgess, J. L., Naleway, A. L., Tyner, H. L., Yoon, S. K., Meece, J., Olsho, L. E. W., Caban-Martinez, A. J., Fowlkes, A., Lutrick, K., Kuntz, J. L., Dunnigan, K., Odean, M. J., Hegmann, K. T., Stefanski, E., Edwards, L. J., Schaefer-Solle, N., Grant, L., Ellingson, K., … Gaglani, M. (2021). Interim Estimates of Vaccine Effectiveness of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 COVID-19 Vaccines in Preventing SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Health Care Personnel, First Responders, and Other Essential and Frontline Workers—Eight U.S. Locations, December 2020–March 2021. MMWR. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 70(13), 495–500. https://doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7013e3

    3. 10.15585/mmwr.mm7013e3external icon.
    4. What is already known about this topic? Messenger RNA (mRNA) COVID-19 vaccines have been shown to be effective in preventing symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in randomized placebo-controlled Phase III trials. What is added by this report? Prospective cohorts of 3,950 health care personnel, first responders, and other essential and frontline workers completed weekly SARS-CoV-2 testing for 13 consecutive weeks. Under real-world conditions, mRNA vaccine effectiveness of full immunization (≥14 days after second dose) was 90% against SARS-CoV-2 infections regardless of symptom status; vaccine effectiveness of partial immunization (≥14 days after first dose but before second dose) was 80%. What are the implications for public health practice? Authorized mRNA COVID-19 vaccines are effective for preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection in real-world conditions. COVID-19 vaccination is recommended for all eligible persons.
    5. Interim Estimates of Vaccine Effectiveness of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 COVID-19 Vaccines in Preventing SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Health Care Personnel, First Responders, and Other Essential and Frontline Workers — Eight U.S. Locations, December 2020–March 2021
    1. 2021-06-21

    2. Jena, A. (2021). COVID-19 and SOS tweets in India. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, S1473309921003558. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00355-8

    3. 10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00355-8
    4. “Be safe, be smart, be kind” were the words of WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. India has been facing the worst second wave in the pandemic. With daily cases crossing 350 000 at the time of writing, hospitals in India have witnessed a surge in the number of critically ill patients. The battle between the health-care system serving the second largest population in the world and the severe manifestations of COVID-19 is intense and ongoing. Doctors, nurses, hospital staff, and ambulance drivers are at the forefront of managing the complications of COVID-19. In a Media Watch piece, Graham Mackenzie described the experience of lockdown in the UK, as captured through social media.1Mackenzie G A year and a day of #Covid19uk tweets.Lancet Infect Dis. 2021; 21: 616Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Google Scholar In India, social media has turned out to be a saviour in the middle of this pandemic.
    5. COVID-19 and SOS tweets in India
    1. 2021-06-21

    2. Bolze, A., Cirulli, E. T., Luo, S., White, S., Cassens, T., Jacobs, S., Nguyen, J., Ramirez, J. M., Sandoval, E., Wang, X., Wong, D., Becker, D., Laurent, M., Lu, J. T., Isaksson, M., Washington, N. L., & Lee, W. (2021). Rapid displacement of SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 by B.1.617.2 and P.1 in the United States [Preprint]. Infectious Diseases (except HIV/AIDS). https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.06.20.21259195

    3. 10.1101/2021.06.20.21259195
    4. The SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern B.1.617.2 displaced B.1.1.7 as the dominant variant in England and other countries. This study aimed to determine whether B.1.617.2 was also displacing B.1.1.7 in the United States. We analyzed PCR testing results and viral sequencing results of samples collected across the United States, and showed that B.1.1.7 was rapidly being displaced and is no longer responsible for the majority of new cases. The percentage of SARS-CoV-2 positive cases that are B.1.1.7 dropped from 70% in April 2021 to 42% in just 6 weeks. Our analysis showed rapid growth of variants B.1.617.2 and P.1 as the primary drivers for this displacement. Currently, the growth rate of B.1.617.2 was higher than P.1 in the US (0.61 vs. 0.22), which is consistent with reports from other countries. Lastly, we showed that B.1.617.2 was growing faster in counties with a lower vaccination rate.
    5. Rapid displacement of SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 by B.1.617.2 and P.1 in the United States
    1. Report a problem or side effect | Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA). (n.d.). Retrieved June 26, 2021, from https://www.tga.gov.au/reporting-problems

    2. Report a problem or side effect
    3. This page is for reporting: side effects to medicines and problems with medical devices (adverse events) counterfeit (fake) medicines and medical devices issues with a medicine's packaging or storage.
    1. 2021-03-31

    2. Parry, H. M., Tut, G., Faustini, S., Stephens, C., Saunders, P., Bentley, C., Hilyard, K., Brown, K., Amirthalingam, G., Charlton, S., Leung, S., Chiplin, E., Coombes, N. S., Bewley, K. R., Penn, E. J., Rowe, C., Otter, A., Watts, R., D’Arcangelo, S., … Moss, P. (2021). BNT162b2 Vaccination in People Over 80 Years of Age Induces Strong Humoral Immune Responses with Cross Neutralisation of P.1 Brazilian Variant. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3816840

    3. BackgroundAge is the major risk factor for mortality after SARS-CoV-2 infection and older people have received priority consideration for COVID-19vaccination. However vaccine responses are often suboptimal in this age group and few people over the age of 80 years were included in vaccine registration trials.MethodsWe determined the serological and cellular response to spike protein in 100 people aged 80-96 years at 2 weeks after second vaccination with the PfizerBNT162b2 mRNA vaccine.FindingsAntibody responses were seen in every donor with high titres in 98%. Spike-specific cellular immune responses were detectable in only 63% and correlated with humoral response. Previous SARS-CoV-2 infection substantially increased antibody responses after one vaccine and antibody and cellular responses remained 28-fold and 3-fold higher respectively after dual vaccination. Post-vaccine sera mediated strong neutralisation of live Victoria (Wuhan-like prototype) infection and although neutralisation titres were reduced 14-fold against the P.1 variantfirst discovered in Brazilthey remained largely effective.InterpretationThese data demonstrate that the mRNA vaccine platform delivers strong humoral immunity in people up to 96 years of age and retains broad efficacy against the P.1 Variant of Concern
    4. 1BNT162b2 vaccination in people over 80 years of age induces strong humoral immune responses with cross neutralisation of P.1 Brazilian var