10.31235/osf.io/yrtfb

Opinion piece giving analysis, advice, and predictions on judicial appointment and staffing politics in the wake of the COVID crisis. Published on April 24, 2020 in Discover Society, https://discoversociety.org/2020/04/24/engineering-your-judiciary-or-how-the-covid-crisis-wont-go-to-waste/

Engineering Your Judiciary, or How the COVID Crisis Won't Go To Waste

10.31235/osf.io/vm5rz

The whole world is facing a big crisis due to the spreading of newly detected novel corona virus 2019 (COVID ̶ 19). A huge number of people have already been infected since last 4 months. People are thinking about the prevention of infected individuals, vaccine, medical treatment, and other precautions. The governments of most countries including India have already taken several measures like lockdown, social distancing, closure of schools, colleges, religious gatherings etc., to reduce its spreading. India is a developing country and most of the people are having below the standard income. So the lockdown in India has affected the poor and middle income group people. In this article, we will discuss in detail on the societal effects in India due to COVID ̶ 19 pandemic. The effects of health, essential commodities, Indian economy, domestic violence, politics, and psychology on society due to COVID ̶ 19 will be elaborated in detail. The aim of this research is to have a clear understanding of the present societal scenario during lockdown, which may help the government for better management and prevention of the disease.

Societal impact of novel corona virus (COVID ̶ 19 pandemic) in India

10.31235/osf.io/jp4wk

As the COVID-19 outbreak progresses, increasing numbers of researchers are examining how an array of factors either hurt or help the spread of the disease. Unfortunately, the majority of available data, primarily confirmed cases of COVID-19, are widely known to be biased indicators of the spread of the disease. In this paper we present a retrospective Bayesian model that is much simpler than epidemiological models of disease progression but is still able to identify the effect of covariates on the historical infection rate. The model is validated by comparing our estimation of the count of infected to projections from expert surveys and extant disease forecasts. To apply the model, we show that as of April 10th, there are approximately 2 million infected people in the United States, and these people are increasingly concentrated in states with less wealth, better air quality, fewer smokers, fewer people under the age of 18, less public health funding and more cardiovascular deaths. On the other hand, the percentage of foreign born residents and the proportion of people who voted for President Trump in 2016 are not clear predictors of COVID-19 trends.

A Retrospective Bayesian Model for Measuring Covariate Effects on Observed COVID-19 Test and Case Counts

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We already know which countries have controlled the spread of COVID-19 better and what “good practices” have enabled them to do so. Eventually, some of these policies could be replicated in other countries. But it is not enough to make a well-informed public intervention. We also need quickly available indicators of how actively populations are responding to the virus threat because current changes in social behaviour could mean significant differences in the spread of the COVID-19 in two weeks (after the incubation period). In this article, Pablo Beytía Reyes and Carlos Cruz Infante explore the potential of Google Trends to quickly track social responses to the pandemic. In all the countries that have reached a downward changepoint in the COVID-19 contagion, an “information saturation peak” preceded it: people were massively searching for information on the subject over 2 to 5 days, and about a week after the peak of searches was reached, a decline in the growth trend of coronavirus confirmed cases could be observed. Does it make sense to associate a Google search boom with a decrease in transmission trends? The authors propose that the frequency of searches is a quick indicator of 1) people’ concerns on the virus, 2) the development of a more informed citizenry on how to avoid transmission and 3) active social response to the virus spread, which generally lead to a downward change in the contagion trend.

Digital Pathways, Pandemic Trajectories. Using Google Trends to Track Social Responses to COVID-19

10.31235/osf.io/yqdsu

In diesem Beitrag erörtern wir die Relevanz soziologischer Analysen bei der Erklärung individuellen und kollektiven Handelns in der globalen Corona-Krise und diskutieren deren individuelle und soziale Folgen. Weiterhin thematisieren wir auch die politischen und medialen Bewältigungsversuche der COVID-19 Pandemie. Wir arbeiten drei Bereiche heraus, in denen soziologische Analysen und methodisches Denken aktuelle Relevanz haben und wertvolle Beiträge zur wissenschaftlichen Begleitung der Krise leisten: (1) Aus soziologischen Analysen resultierende Erkenntnisse können politischen Entscheidungsträgern als rationale Entscheidungsgrundlage dienen, um geeignete Rahmenbedingungen zur Erstellung kollektiver Güter in einer Krisensituation zu schaffen. Weiterhin hat die Soziologie die Möglichkeit und auch die Aufgabe auf unerwünschte Nebenfolgen staatlicher Interventionen hinweisen. (2) Wissen aus dem Bereich der empirischen Sozialforschung kann genutzt werden, um zuverlässige und relevante empirische Daten zu produzieren und die Qualität bereits existierender Datenbestände, die häufig die Grundlage politischen Handelns in der Krise bilden, zu beurteilen. (3) Zudem können Soziologinnen und Soziologen die Rezeption der Krise in den Massenmedien, die häufig durch nicht sachgemäße und irreführende Kommunikation statistischer Informationen gekennzeichnet ist, kritisch begleiten.

Soziologie in Zeiten der Pandemie

10.31235/osf.io/jecqp

Google Trends offers researchers a glimpse inside the minds of a large group of people, all at once, and offers a very high resolution as well. As a result, trend data may be useful for identifying rapid changes in day to day psychological states and behaviors associated with the COVID-19 outbreak. This paper analyzes stress related search terms as well as food related search terms, and identifies changes in patterns for each that appear to be associated with the outbreak.

Initial Observations of Psychological and Behavioral Effects of COVID-19 in the United States, Using Google Trends Data

10.31235/osf.io/ksefy

BACKGROUND All available evidence suggests that the number of deaths linked to COVID-19 among those living in nursing homes is extremely high. Yet, it remains unknown to what extent there are socio-economic differences among nursing home residents, which can lead, in turn, to social inequality in mortality linked to COVID. OBJECTIVE We investigate whether there are educational differences in the likelihood of living in a nursing home across 13 European countries: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland. METHODS We use SHARE data (waves 5-7). We compute logistic regression models for rare events. RESULTS We find that there are sizeable differences in the probability of being in a nursing home, with low-educated individuals more likely to live in this kind of arrangement. This general pattern holds in all the European countries considered. There is considerable uncertainty in our estimates due to small Ns problems and firm conclusions on how the effect of education varies across countries cannot be drawn. Still, there is some indication that the largest educational differences are found in the Scandinavian countries and the smaller ones, even close to zero, in Southern European Countries, with countries in Continental Europe and Eastern Europe laying in between. CONTRIBUTION To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that provides country specific evidence of educational differences in the probability of being in a nursing home in recent years. In this way, we also provide indirect evidence on social inequality in mortality linked to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Social inequality and the risk of being in a nursing home during the COVID-19 pandemic

10.31235/osf.io/txqb6

COVID-19 has had unprecedented effects on populations around the world. Given the political and moral context of the pandemic and the nation’s response to it, this study sought to assess the extent of American’s personal fear about the virus as well as their fear for others (altruistic fear), identify potential predictors of these fears, and examine the mental health impact of heightened COVID-19 fears. Overall, a majority of respondents worried about various aspects of the virus, from being exposed to dying and reported often worrying about others, including family, the elderly, and healthcare professionals. Building on the fear of crime literature, we find that certain individuals, including those who believe they are at a high risk of dying from the virus, those who closely follow news coverage of the pandemic, and those with strong moral foundations, are likely to experience elevated fear and, possibly, its consequences.

Pandemic Emotions: The Extent, Correlates, and Mental Health Consequences of Personal and Altruistic Fear of COVID-19

10.31235/osf.io/5zuv7

This paper investigates the profile of COVID-19 cases in Hong Kong, highlighting the unique age structure of confirmed cases compared to other states. Whilst the majority of cases in most states around the world have fitted an older age profile, our analysis shows that positive cases in Hong Kong have been concentrated amongst younger age groups, with the largest incidence of cases reported in the 15-24 age group. This is despite the population’s rapidly ageing structure and extremely high levels of population density. Using detailed case data from Hong Kong’s Centre for Health Department and Immigration Department, we analyze the sex and age distribution of the confirmed cases along with their recent travel histories and immigration flows for the period January to April, 2020. Our analysis highlights Hong Kong’s high proportion of imported cases and large overseas student population in developing COVID-19 hotspot areas such as the United Kingdom. Combined with targeted and aggressive early policy measures taken to contain the virus, these factors may have contributed to the uniquely younger age structure of COVID-19 cases in the city. Consequently, this young profile of confirmed cases may have prevented fatalities in the city-state.

Imported cases, community action, policy and institutional systems drive Hong Kong’s COVID-19 experience

10.31235/osf.io/9gq6n

India had its first case of COVID- 19 on January 30th 2020. Slowly the numbers started to increase by mid of February and so is the information on poultry products. Till January 2020 the prices of poultry products were 147.65 rupees per kg until there was a sharp drop in March 2020. The reason behind it was the rumours that coronavirus is caused by the consumption of poultry products. This paper tries to point to out that how these rumours have badly affected the poultry prices in India by looking at a source on which the information is passed on and also the condition under which people tend to believe such rumours. The study emphasis on the fact that such rumours have affected the business of rural population, in particular, making them sell their products at a lower price.

Poultry Prices Skid in India Due to Fake News Circulation on Coronavirus

10.31235/osf.io/3ej72

We report an unprecedented decline in protest activity around the world during the Covid-19 pandemic. Using data from the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System from January 2018-April 2020, we calculate z-scores from average monthly and weekly protest activity in countries around the world. Comparing continents, we find an especially pronounced decline of protest in European and Asian countries. We provide four conjectures about the implications this decline in protest can have on future protest behavior.

Drawback before the wave?: Protest decline during the Covid-19 pandemic

10.31235/osf.io/6m85q

As the COVID-19 spreads worldwide, countries increasingly recommend wearing facemasks in public. However, its uptake remains far from universal in countries where this practice lacks cultural roots. In this paper, we identify the barriers to mask-wearing in Spain, a country with no mask-wearing culture. We conduct one of the first nationally representative surveys (n = 4,000) about the COVID-19, and uncover the associations of mask-wearing behavior with: a) demographics; b) disease-related anxiety and risk perceptions; c) personality traits; d) social acceptability of mask-wearing. Our results can serve policymakers to design programs for improving compliance. Governments should target efforts to the introverted and the highly educated, as well as advertising mask-wearing as an injunctive norm to encourage their citizens, particularly the elderly, to wear facemasks.

Voluntary adoption of social welfare-enhancing behavior: Mask-wearing in Spain during the COVID-19 outbreak

10.31235/osf.io/prnz9

On March 11th, 2020, the World Health Organization officially declared COVID-19 a pandemic. The pandemic is rapidly altering daily life and leading to changes in the way we spend time outside. In an effort to gather timely and relevant data on national recreation patterns, before, during, and after the pandemic, the Leave No Trace Center for Outdoor Ethics worked quickly with its academic partner, Pennsylvania State University, to offer guidance to land managers, recreation providers, and outdoor enthusiasts across the country. In total, 1,012 outdoor recreationists were surveyed through the Leave No Trace community in a 48-hour window beginning on the morning of April 9th. Our hope is that the results of this rapid assessment will provide valuable information for managing the changing recreation use of public lands, predicting spikes in recreation, and offering insight for land managers as they work to protect the natural world. The following tables, figures, and corresponding brief descriptions are intended to provide initial results of this research effort. Further results are forthcoming.

The COVID-19 pandemic is changing the way people recreate outdoors: Preliminary report on a national survey of outdoor enthusiasts amid the COVID-19 pandemic

10.31235/osf.io/97qa4

In the spring of 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic changed the daily lives of people around the world. In an effort to quantify these changes, Google released an open-source dataset pertaining to regional mobility trends—including park visitation trends. This dataset offers vast application potential, containing aggregated information from location data collected via smartphones around the world. However, empirical analysis of these data is limited. Namely, the factors causing reported changes in mobility and the degree to which these changes can be directly attributable to COVID-19 remain unknown. The goal of this study is to address these gaps in our understanding of both the changes in park visitation and the causes of these changes. Results suggest that seasonality, not the COVID-19 pandemic, serves as the primary driver of reported changes in park visitation. Specifically, latitude-driven seasonal changes significantly influence visitation trends. Median age of a county is also a statistically significant driver.

Understanding drivers of change in park visitation during the COVID-19 pandemic: A spatial application of Big data

10.31235/osf.io/jy8fn

In late April 2020, we surveyed 1,060 U.S. parents in residing with a partner of a different sex in order to examine how divisions of housework and childcare may have changed since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.

US Couples’ Divisions of Housework and Childcare during COVID-19 Pandemic

10.31235/osf.io/hzj7a

To what degree does social distancing have a causal effect on the spread of SARS-CoV-2? To generate causal evidence, we show that week to week changes in weather conditions provided a natural experiment that altered daily travel and movement outside the home, and thus affected social distancing in the first several weeks when Covid-19 began to spread in many U.S. counties. Using aggregated mobile phone location data and leveraging changes in social distancing driven by weekly weather conditions, we provide the first causal evidence on the effect of social distancing on the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Results show that a 1 percent increase in distance traveled leads to an 8.1 percent increase in new cases per capita in the following week, and a 1 percent increase in non-essential visits leads to a 6.9 percent increase in new cases per capita in the following week. Results are stronger in densely populated counties and close to zero in less densely populated counties.

The Causal Effect of Social Distancing on the Spread of SARS-CoV-2

10.31235/osf.io/5jgzy

This study provides preliminary evidence regarding associations between socioeconomic inequalities and variations in the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases across 923 municipalities in Catalonia, Spain, as of the 14th of May, 2020. We consider three types of inequalities at municipality-level: 1) economic development, i.e., unemployment rate, average income, immigrants proportion, and the prevalence of small residence; 2) health vulnerability, i.e., crude death rate and the proportion of elderly (aged 65 +) population; and 3) information communication, i.e., the proportion of people with tertiary education. In addition to the static analysis with the total sum of COVID-19 cases, the dynamic analysis with daily moving weekly sum of cases is conducted. The result draws a rather complex picture of relationships between contextual socioeconomic inequalities and the spread of COVID-19. Many indicators of economic inequalities imply the opposite relationship as intuitively suggested: economically disadvantaged municipalities tend to have less cases of confirmed infection than economically advantaged counterparts. The implications from health inequality indicators show mixed patterns: crude death rate is positively associated, but elderly population is negatively associated, with the number of confirmed cases. The indicator of information inequality shows a consistent tendency, i.e., municipalities with more university educated have less confirmed cases, but this tendency transforms across time: the negative association is particularly strong during the first month of Spanish “state of alarm” measure (mid-March to mid-April). Our evidence suggests the need for more careful consideration regarding the association between socioeconomic inequalities and the regional progression of COVID-19 pandemic.

Socioeconomic inequality and COVID-19 prevalence across municipalities in Catalonia, Spain

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The manuscript highlights available data on gap in public awareness about recent clinical and scientific facts about COVID-19, insufficient community knowledge about symptoms and preventive measures during COVID-19 and previous MERS-CoV epidemic, and lack of monitoring the community perception and adherence to preventive measures. We also summarize literature evidence about reluctance to change social behavior and disregard recommendations for social distancing among persons who percept to having low risk of infection or complications, and briefly describe destructive psychological response and misleading communications. Our analysis could be translated into important policy changes in two directions: (1) to communicate recent scientific discoveries about COVID-19 pathophysiology to better prepare public opinion to longer period of extraordinary measures; (2) to implement sociological feedback on knowledge, attitudes and practices among general public and some vulnerable social groups.

Communication on COVID-19 to community – measures to prevent a second wave of epidemic

10.31235/osf.io/4wtz8

Objectives. To investigate how COVID-19-related health and socio-economic vulnerabilities occur at the household level, and how they are distributed across household types and geographical areas in the United Kingdom. Design. Cross-sectional, nationally representative study. Setting. The United Kingdom. Participants. ~19,500 households. Main outcome measures. Using multiple household-level indicators and principal components analysis, we derive summary measures representing different dimensions of household vulnerabilities critical during the COVID-19 epidemic: health, employment, housing, financial and digital. Results. Our analysis highlights three key findings. First, although COVID-19 health risks are concentrated in retirement-age households, a substantial proportion of working age households also face these risks. Second, different types of households exhibit different vulnerabilities, with working-age households more likely to face financial, housing and employment precarities, and retirement-age households health and digital vulnerabilities. Third, there are area-level differences in the distribution of vulnerabilities across England and the constituent countries of the United Kingdom. Conclusions. The findings imply that the short- and long-term consequences of the COVID-19 crisis are likely to vary by household type. Policy measures that aim to mitigate the health and socio-economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic should consider how vulnerabilities cluster together across different household types, and how these may exacerbate already existing inequalities.

Household level health and socio-economic vulnerabilities and the COVID-19 crisis: An analysis from the UK

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Around the world, almost all countries have sought to stop the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) by lockdown and quarantine protocols, implemented from local to the national scale. For every scientific development and policy implementation which comprehensively connects this pandemic, the event is not very sound about the extensive socio-economic impact ushered with this disaster. In this paper, using a combined qualitative-quantitative approach, Q method, we have tried to assess the peoples’ discernment from different perspectives. This work was done through questionnaire survey method, during the national level lockdown 1.0 in India. We have differentiated the perception of youth respondents into 7 factors taking 6 dimensions on Covid-19 pandemic (viz. science, society, environment, economy, politics and religion). This work yielded a firsthand ground level insight on the comprehensive but diverse responses from the youths and their opinion for Covid-19 pandemic in India. We are hopeful that this work might open new avenues to understand the people-Covid-19 connection, both for future research and policy implementation.

Analysis of youths’ perspective in India on and during the pandemic of Covid-19

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Background: Do young adults have low compliance rates with public health measures aimed at curbing the spread of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)? This paper leverages a prospective-longitudinal cohort study with data before and during the pandemic to examine this question. Methods: Data came from an ongoing cohort study (n=737). Non-compliance with public health measures and concurrent correlates were measured at age 22. Antecedent sociodemographic, social, and psychological factors were measured at ages 15-20. Findings: Young adults generally complied with COVID-19 public health measures, although compliance with some measures (e.g., cleaning/disinfecting mobile phones, standing 1.5-2 meters apart) was relatively lower. Non-compliance, especially with hygiene-related measures, was more prevalent in males, and in individuals with higher education, higher SES, and a non- migrant background. Non-compliance was associated with “antisocial potential,” including pre-pandemic low acceptance of moral rules, legal cynicism, low shame/guilt, low self-control, engagement in delinquent behaviors, and association with delinquent peers. Young adults with low trust, including in the government’s measures for fighting the virus, also complied less. Interpretation: In order to increase voluntary compliance with COVID-19 measures, public health campaigns should implement strategies that foster moral obligation and trust in authorities, or leverage trustworthy individuals in the community to disseminate information. For young adults with low self-control, self-monitoring, environmental restructuring, or nudging may increase compliance. Long-term investments into integrating antisocial youth into society may decrease rule-breaking behaviors, including during pandemics when compliance saves lives.

Non-compliance with COVID-19-related public health measures among young adults: Insights from a longitudinal cohort study

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We utilize nationally representative surveys from the United States and Canada to examine the partisan divide in COVID-19 attitudes and behaviours in both countries. The first cases of COVID-19 in both the US and Canada occurred around the same time, but government responses were starkly different. We explore politically salient assessments of governmental performance in both countries, as well as general concern regarding COVID-19 and declarations of changes to daily routines undertaken in response to the pandemic. We find strong partisan differences in evaluations of the government’s response to COVID-19 and confidence in its ability to handle the crisis. We also find partisan differences in concern and behavioural responses to the pandemic in both countries. However, the behavioural differences are small, suggesting that while overtly political assessments are strongly partisan this polarization is dampened down when it comes to actual behavioural responses to the pandemic.

Novel coronavirus, old partisanship: COVID-19 attitudes and behaviors in the United States and Canada

10.31235/osf.io/hf32q

The outbreak of the Corona virus has led to unprecedented measures in education. From March 16, all schools in the Netherlands are closed, and children must keep up with their schoolwork from home. Parents are expected to take a crucial role in this “homeschooling”: they are primarily responsible for ensuring that their children follow the curriculum. In this article I report the first results of a module in the LISS Panel that was designed to map how parents school their children in primary and secondary education. Data on a nationally representative sample of 1,318 children in primary and secondary education were gathered in April. The results show marked differences between social groups. Whereas all parents find it important that their children keep up with the schoolwork, children from advantaged backgrounds receive much more parental support and have more resources (e.g., own computer) to study from home. Differences in parental support are driven by the ability to help: parents with a higher education degree feels themselves much capable to help their children with schoolwork than lower educated parents. Parents also report that schools provide more extensive distant schooling for children in the academic track in secondary education (vwo) than for children in the pre-vocational track (vmbo). Finally, there is a clear gender gap: parents feel much more capable to support their daughters than their sons. These initial findings provide clear indications that the school shutdown in the Netherlands is likely to have strong effects on the inequality in educational opportunities.

Inequality in homeschooling during the Corona crisis in the Netherlands. First results from the LISS Panel.

10.31235/osf.io/g4kh7

At the time of writing, there was 2.9 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 200,000 deaths worldwide. Not since the Spanish Flu in 1918 has the world experienced such a widespread pandemic and this has motivated many countries across globe to take a series of unprecedented actions in an effort to curb the spread and impact of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Among these government and regulatory interventions includes unprecedented domestic and international travel restrictions as well as a raft of stay-at-home and social distancing regulations. Each has left criminologists wondering what impact this will have on crime in both the short- and long-term. In this study, we examine officially recorded violent crime rates for the month of March, 2020, as reported for the state of Queensland, Australia. We use ARIMA modeling techniques to compute six-month-ahead forecasts of common assault, serious assault, sexual offence and domestic violence order breach rates and then compare these forecasts (and their 95\% confidence intervals) with the observed data for March 2020. We conclude that the observed rates of reported violent offending across Queensland were not--at least not so far--significantly different from what was expected given the history of each offence series.

COVID-19 and Violent Crime: A comparison of recorded offence rates and dynamic forecasts (ARIMA) for March 2020 in Queensland, Australia

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus‐2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) that has caused the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic represents the greatest international biopsychosocial emergency the world has faced for a century, and psychological science has an integral role to offer in helping societies recover. The aim of this paper is to set out the shorter‐ and longer‐term priorities for research in psychological science that will (a) frame the breadth and scope of potential contributions from across the discipline; (b) enable researchers to focus their resources on gaps in knowledge; and (c) help funders and policymakers make informed decisions about future research priorities in order to best meet the needs of societies as they emerge from the acute phase of the pandemic. The research priorities were informed by an expert panel convened by the British Psychological Society that reflects the breadth of the discipline; a wider advisory panel with international input; and a survey of 539 psychological scientists conducted early in May 2020. The most pressing need is to research the negative biopsychosocial impacts of the COVID‐19 pandemic to facilitate immediate and longer‐term recovery, not only in relation to mental health, but also in relation to behaviour change and adherence, work, education, children and families, physical health and the brain, and social cohesion and connectedness. We call on psychological scientists to work collaboratively with other scientists and stakeholders, establish consortia, and develop innovative research methods while maintaining high‐quality, open, and rigorous research standards.

10.1111/bjop.12468

Research priorities for the COVID‐19 pandemic and beyond: A call to action for psychological science

10.31235/osf.io/yatjc

With public health dangers of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) unlikely to subside by the Fall 2020, several states are considering implementing universal vote by mail systems in advance of the General Election. Studying Americans' demand for these policies is important, as support for universal vote by mail could place pressure on policymakers to implement policies that encourage turnout, without jeopardizing public health. Drawing on insights from social and political psychology, we theorize that -- while self-identified liberals are typically more likely to support vote-by-mail policies than conservatives -- anxiety about COVID-19's health risks could erase these differences. In a demographically representative survey of U.S. adults conducted in late April 2020 (N = 1,015), we find strong ideological asymmetries in vote-by-mail support among individuals who are not concerned about COVID-19's health effects. However, and consistent with our theory, we find that highly-concerned liberals and conservatives alike are highly supportive of universal vote-by-mail. The results suggest that anxiety about the pandemic may play an important role in shaping demand for universal vote-by-mail policies, across the ideological spectrum.

Concern About COVID-19 & Support for Universal Vote by Mail

10.31235/osf.io/dghba

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to alter daily life and lead to changes in the way we spend time outside. In an effort to gather timely and relevant data on national recreation patterns before, during, and after the pandemic, the Leave No Trace Center for Outdoor Ethics and its academic partner, Pennsylvania State University, have been working to conduct a study that can offer guidance to land managers, recreation providers, and outdoor enthusiasts across the United States. Phase 1 of this assessment was conducted April 9th – 11th, 2020 (Rice et al., 2020). Phase 2 of this assessment was conducted April 30th – May 2nd. This second phase of research—discussed in this preliminary report— was designed to provide additional information regarding changes in recreation trends since April 9th, which provides valuable information for managing dynamic recreational use on public lands. In total, 823 outdoor recreationists were surveyed through the Leave No Trace community in a 48-hour window beginning on the morning of April 30th. The results of this second rapid assessment—complete with comparisons to Phase 1 data—will provide valuable information for managing the changing recreation use of public lands, predicting spikes in recreation, and offering insight for land managers as they work to protect the natural world. The following tables, figures, and corresponding brief descriptions are intended to provide initial results from Phase 2 of our research effort, with comparisons to Phase 1 when appropriate. Further results are forthcoming.

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to change the way people recreate outdoors: A second preliminary report on a national survey of outdoor enthusiasts amid the COVID-19 pandemic

10.31235/osf.io/de9nc

At the time of writing, there was 3.4 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 300,000 deaths worldwide. Not since the Spanish Flu in 1918 has the world experienced such a widespread pandemic and this has motivated many countries across globe to take unprecedented actions in an effort to curb the spread and impact of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Among these government and regulatory interventions includes stringent domestic and international travel restrictions as well as a raft of stay-at-home and social distancing regulations. The scale of these containment measures has left criminologists wondering what impact this will have on crime in both the short- and long-term. In this study, we examine officially recorded property crime rates for March, 2020, as reported for the state of Queensland, Australia. We use ARIMA modeling techniques to compute six-month-ahead forecasts of property damage, shop theft, other theft, burglary, fraud, and motor vehicle theft rates and then compare these forecasts (and their 95% confidence intervals) with the observed data for March 2020. We conclude that the observed rates of reported property offending across Queensland were significantly lower than expected for shop theft, other theft and credit-card fraud but statistically unchanged for property damage, burglary, and motor-vehicle theft.

Property Crime during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A comparison of recorded offence rates and dynamic forecasts (ARIMA) for March 2020 in Queensland, Australia

10.31235/osf.io/u27cp

This project involves three samples, drawn from the United Kingdom, the United States, and India. Respondents are recruited through MTurk and compensated after the completion of a short survey. In each country, we aim for a sample of 1,500, reserving 500 for each of three treatment arms – a pure control, an “economics” treatment (where we prime the economic effects of the Coronavirus pandemic), and a “public health” treatment (where we prime the health effects of the pandemic). People in the US, UK, and India are extremely concerned about the pandemic – both its health effects and economic repercussions – and they become even more concerned when primed with information about the repercussions of the virus. Yet, we find no evidence that these worries translate into changes in political behavior. The null findings contained in this study suggest that politicians are unlikely to be punished or rewarded for their failures or successes in managing Covid-19 in the next election. We suggest that these findings indicate that public health issues have little influence on voter preferences in most election cycles.

Is health politically irrelevant? Experimental evidence during a global pandemic

10.31235/osf.io/nrjd3

The activities performed by Canadian workers in some occupations may increase the risk of exposure to infectious diseases such as COVID-19. This research note explores how occupational exposure risks vary by labour force characteristics using publicly available Canadian data in combination with a dataset providing information on the level of physical proximity and frequency of exposure to infections or diseases faced by workers in different occupations. I find important sociodemographic differences. First, women work in occupations associated with significantly higher average risks of exposure to COVID-19 than men. This is driven by their over-representation in high-risk broad occupational categories such as health occupations. Second, older workers (65 years old or more), a group vulnerable to COVID-19, appear to work in occupations requiring performing activities that require a lower level of physical proximity than their younger colleagues, with minimal differences in the frequency of exposure to diseases or infections. Finally, workers in low-income occupations are employed in occupations that put them at greater risk of exposure to COVID-19 than other workers. This is especially the case for women, immigrants and members of visible minority groups in low-income occupations. More broadly, this research note provides insights into the health-related dimension of the literature on occupational tasks and labour market stratification.

Sociodemographic Determinants of Occupational Risks of Exposure to COVID-19 in Canada

10.31235/osf.io/mz67j

Policy makers responding to COVID-19 need to know people’s relative valuation of health over wealth. Loosening and tightening lockdowns moves a society along a (perceived) health-wealth trade-off and the associated changes have to accord with the public’s relative valuation of health and wealth for maximum compliance. In our survey experiment (N=4,618), we randomize information provision on economic and health costs to assess public preferences over this trade-off in the UK and the US. People strongly prioritize health over wealth, but the treatment effects suggest these priorities will change as experience of COVID-19 deaths and income losses evolves. Information also has heterogeneous/polarizing effects. These results encourage policy caution. Individual differences in health-wealth valuation highlight this study’s importance because they map onto compliance with current lockdown measures.

COVID-19 and people's health-wealth preferences: Information effects and policy implications

10.31235/osf.io/vmg34

We draw on data from the Online Labour Index and interviews with freelancers in the United States securing work on online platforms, to illuminate effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic’s global economic upheaval is shuttering shops and offices. Those able to do so are now working remotely from their homes. They join workers who have always been working remotely: freelancers who earn some or all of their income from projects secured via online labour platforms. Data allow us to sketch a first picture of how the initial month of the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the livelihoods of online freelancers. The data shows online labour demand falling rapidly in early March 2020, but with an equally rapid recovery. We also find significant differences between countries and occupations. Data from interviews make clear jobs are increasingly scarce even as more people are creating profiles and seeking freelance work online.

Distancing Bonus or Downscaling Loss? The Changing Livelihood of US Online Workers in Times of COVID-19

10.31235/osf.io/vz9cu

The covid-19 pandemic has brought to fore the key role that mass media plays in shaping collective risk perception. This paper looks at the inquiry process carried out by Brazilian journalists covering the first public interview of a newly appointed Health Minister. It bases this analysis on the precept of ‘a priori intuition’ by Immanuel Kant in 'Critique of Pure Reason'. The paper argues that, contrary to common sense, journalists can more accurately shape representations of reality, while clarifying authorities’ statements, by arbitrarily depriving themselves from prior knowledge and relying, instead, on personalizing space and time in the inquiry process.

Mass Media Exposing Representations of Reality Through Critical Inquiry

10.31235/osf.io/k2jgf

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is critically impacting health and wellbeing around the world. In addition to physical health problems, COVID-19 is increasingly reported to be associated with mental health problems across populations. Evidence from the current pandemic and earlier infectious disease outbreaks suggests that several psychosocial factors, including fear and susceptibility of infection, stigma, lack of awareness, pre-existing health problems, and poor social support affect the mental health status among the vulnerable individuals and populations. Moreover, social determinants of mental health are disproportionately distributed across populations, which also affect coping with adverse psychosocial conditions. During COVID-19 pandemic, many psychological challenges are aggravating globally, including suicidal behavior. In this correspondence, we discuss a case of suicide of an army soldier in India and the psychosocial epidemiology of suicidal behavior in the context of COVID-19.

COVID-19 and suicide of an army soldier in India: perspectives on psychosocial epidemiology of suicidal behavior

10.31235/osf.io/tazux

COVID-19 is the most salient issue in the world presently, and for current executives, it is likely the greatest and gravest challenge they will ever face. Interestingly, upon entering the U.S. context, the disease was immediately subject to the process of affective polarization, with clear partisan splits forming around perceptions of its risks that did not relate to science or ideology. We ask whether the process of affective polarization spilled over into and affected firms’ perceptions of the disease’s risk by examining whether firms’ risk perceptions covary with their partisan political positioning. Analyzing conference call and campaign contribution data for the S&P 500, we find a positive association between a firm’s contributions to Democratic partisans and its recognition of perceived COVID-19 risks.

Firm Partisan Political Positioning and Perceptions of COVID-19-Related Risk

10.31235/osf.io/j4a3d

The population-level case-fatality rate (CFR) associated with COVID-19 varies substantially, both across countries time and within countries over time. We analyze the contribution of two key determinants of the variation in the observed CFR: the age-structure of diagnosed infection cases and age-specific case-fatality rates. We use data on diagnosed COVID-19 cases and death counts attributable to COVID-19 by age for China, Germany, Italy, South Korea, Spain, the United States, and New York City. We calculate the CFR for each population at the latest data point and also for Italy over time. We use demographic decomposition to break the difference between CFRs into unique contributions arising from the age-structure of confirmed cases and the age-specific case-fatality. In late April 2020, CFRs varied from 2.2% in South Korea to 13.0% in Italy. The age-structure of detected cases often explains more than two thirds of cross-country variation in the CFR. In Italy, the CFR increased from 4.2% to 13.0% between March 9 and April 22, 2020, and more than 90% of the change was due to increasing age-specific case-fatality rates. The importance of the age-structure of confirmed cases likely reflects several factors, including different testing regimes and differences in transmission trajectories; while increasing age-specific case-fatality rates in Italy could indicate other factors, such as the worsening health outcomes of those infected with COVID-19. Our findings lend support to recommendations for data to be disaggregated by age, and potentially other variables, to facilitate a better understanding of population-level differences in CFRs. They also show the need for well designed seroprevalence studies to ascertain the extent to which differences in testing regimes drive differences in the age-structure of detected cases.

Monitoring trends and differences in COVID-19 case fatality rates using decomposition methods: Contributions of age structure and age-specific fatality

10.31235/osf.io/z4m8t

Since first diagnosed in late 2019, there have been more than 4 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than a quarter of a million deaths worldwide. Not since the Spanish Flu in 1918 has the world experienced such a widespread pandemic and this has motivated many countries across globe to take a series of unprecedented actions in an effort to curb the spread and impact of the virus through the adoption of unprecedented domestic and international travel restrictions as well as stay-at-home and social distancing regulations. Whether these policies have altered criminal activity is an important question. In this study, we examine officially recorded violent crime rates for the month of March and April, 2020, as reported for the state of Queensland, Australia. We use ARIMA modeling techniques to compute six-month-ahead forecasts of common assault, serious assault, sexual offense and domestic violence order breach rates and then compare these forecasts (and their 95\% confidence intervals) with the observed data for March and April 2020. We conclude that by the end of April, rates of common, serious and sexual assault had declined to their lowest level in a number of years, and for serious assault and sexual assault the decline was beyond statistical expectations. The rate at which domestic violence orders were breached in Queensland has remained unchanged throughout the first two months of the pandemic.

COVID-19 and Social Distancing Measures in Queensland Australia Are Associated with Short-Term Decreases in Recorded Violent Crime

10.31235/osf.io/q96wj

As humans are spreading throughout the world, infectious diseases have been a constant companion such as Bubonic Plague (200 Million deaths), 17th Century Great Plague (3 Million deaths), Plague of Justinian (30-50 Million deaths), etc . Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) which was published on 11th January 2020 showing the intensity of Global research and development activity to develop a drug/vaccine against the disease. COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by a newly discovered coronavirus. Human to human transmission has created a pandemic situation across the world. Pharmaceutical companies play a crucial role in this scenario to provide Drugs/Vaccines/Therapies to treat and tackle the novel coronavirus disease of 2019. This paper consists of the Drugs and Vaccines which are developed, or in the process of development , their current stage of development (clinical trials) with their patent review.

Analysis of Vaccines to tackle COVID-19 with Patent Review

10.31235/osf.io/y8hpr

The SARS-CoV-2 virus, originated in Wuhan (China) at the end of 2019, rapidly spread in more than 100 countries. Researchers in different fields have been working on finding explanations for the unequal impact of the virus, and deaths from the associated disease (COVID-19), in different geographical areas. Demographers and other social scientists, have hinted at the importance of demographic factors, such as age structure and intergenerational relationships. The goal of this article is to reflect on the possible link between intergenerational relationships and COVID-19 cases in a critical way. We show that with available aggregate data it is not possible to draw robust evidence to support such a link. In fact, at the country-level higher prevalence of intergenerational co-residence and contacts is broadly positively associated with number of COVID-19 cases (per 100,000 persons), but the opposite is generally true at the sub-national level. While this inconsistent evidence neither demonstrates the existence nor the inexistence of a causal link between intergenerational relationships and the prevalence of COVID-19 cases, we warn against simplistic interpretations of the available data which suffer from many shortcomings. Only retrospective individual level data will provide robust evidence on the role of intergenerational ties. We conclude arguing that intergenerational relationships are not only about physical contacts between family members. From a theoretical point of view, different forms of intergenerational relationships may have causal effects of opposite sign on the diffusion of COVID-19. Policies devoted at fighting the spread of COVID-19 should also take into account that intergenerational ties are a source of instrumental and emotional support, which may favor compliance to the lockdown and “phase-2” restrictions and may buffer their negative consequences on mental health.

Are intergenerational relationships responsible for more COVID-19 cases? A cautionary tale of available empirical evidence

10.31235/osf.io/yj8c9

The world has been highly impacted by the COVID-19 as the virus has spread to all continents – about 200 countries in total. The latest update claims about 4,000,000 confirmed cases and about 300,000 confirmed deaths owing to the COVID-19 pandemic. This probably makes the COVID-19 as the most dangerous contagious disease in the era 2000s. Apart from massive publications on this topic, there is no available qualitative analysis that describes the dynamic spreads of the COVID-19 and its impacts on healthcare and the economy. Through the system archetypes analysis, this paper explains that the dynamic spread of the COVID-19 consists of the limits to growth and the success to successful structures. The limits to growth elucidates that more symptomatic and asymptomatic patients owing to infected droplets may be bounded by self-healing and isolated treatments. The success to successful structure explains that once the COVID-19 affects the economy through the lockdown, there will be a limited fund to support the government aids and the aggregate demand. In overall, this paper gives readers simplified holistic insights into understanding the dynamic spread of the COVID-19.

The nexus impacts of the Covid-19: A qualitative perspective

2007.08916

A detailed analysis of Twitter-based information cascades is performed, and it is demonstrated that branching process hypotheses are approximately satisfied. Using a branching process framework, models of agent-to-agent transmission are compared to conclude that a limited attention model better reproduces the relevant characteristics of the data than the more common independent cascade model. Existing and new analytical results for branching processes are shown to match well to the important statistical characteristics of the empirical information cascades, thus demonstrating the power of branching process descriptions for understanding social information spreading.

Branching process descriptions of information cascades on Twitter