10.31234/osf.io/yjvbw

Science can improve life around the world, but public trust in science is at risk. Understanding presumed motives of scientists and science can inform the social psychological underpinnings of public trust in science. Across five independent datasets, perceiving the motives of science and scientists as prosocial promoted public trust in science. In Studies 1 and 2, perceptions that science was more prosocially oriented was associated with greater trust in science. Studies 3 and 4a-b employed experimental methods to establish that perceiving other-oriented motives, versus self-oriented motives, enhanced public trust in science. Respondents recommend greater funding allocations for science subdomains described as prosocially-oriented vs. power-oriented. Emphasizing the prosocial aspects of science can build stronger foundations of public trust in science.

Science for Others or the Self? Presumed Motives for Science Shape Public Trust in Science

10.31234/osf.io/6rb4t

As information about COVID-19 safety behavior changed, people had to judge how likely others were to protect themselves through mask-wearing and vaccination seeking. In a large, campus-wide survey, we assessed whether University of Kansas students viewed others' protective behaviors as different from their own, how much students assumed others would share their beliefs and behaviors, and which individual differences were associated with those estimations. Participants in our survey (N = 1,704; 81.04% white, 64.08% female) evaluated how likely they and others were to wear masks on the University of Kansas campus, wear masks off-campus, and seek a vaccine. They also completed measures of political preference, numeracy, and preferences for risk in various contexts. We found that participants estimated that others would be less likely to engage in health safety behaviors than themselves, but that their estimations of others were widely shared. In addition, of all the individual differences we assessed, political preference displayed the most consistent associations across health behaviors. Not only was false uniqueness ubiquitous across different forms of COVID-19 safety behavior, it was indeed false - estimates of others' health behavior were lower than their actual rates. Understanding this relationship could allow for more accurate norm-setting and normalization of mask-wearing and vaccination.

I'm wearing a mask, but are they?: Perceptions of Self-Other Differences in COVID-19 Health Behaviors

10.31234/osf.io/4cbuw

Intense physical activity leads to high levels of mental health during the Covid-19 pandemic in physically active persons compared to physically passive persons, both for those who are infected with Covid-19, and those who are not.

Impact of physical activity on mental health levels during the Covid-19 pandemic - methods

NHS staff would be excused a feeling of déjà vu, as 2022 kicks off with hospitals being what Boris Johnson, the UK prime minister, is absolutely, definitively, really, really sure is not “overwhelmed.”Many might not agree given the number of NHS trusts declaring a critical incident, but the prime minister has a cunning plan to prevent the NHS being “overwhelmed.” The plan? You simply never define what an “overwhelmed” NHS is, and then it simply can’t happen. Clever, eh?Unfortunately for Johnson, reality has a chronic habit of intruding on his boosterish, feel good approach to the pandemic, and is in the process of doing exactly this once again.As Johnson told the media at the start of this week at a Downing Street press briefing, “I think we've got to recognise that the pressure on our NHS, on our hospitals, is going to be considerable in the course of the next couple of weeks, and maybe more. No matter how incredibly transmissible omicron is…it is different from previous variants. It does seem pretty conclusively to be less severe than delta or alpha, and it is putting fewer people into ICU.”This is currently true: fewer patients are being put into mechanical ventilation beds compared with January 2021, but omicron is still putting a lot more people into hospital than we’ve seen since last winter.1 The latest data saw a 50% rise in acute admissions between 20 December and 28 December.1 And this extra pressure on an NHS that is already crammed with now urgent cases from the growing NHS backlog is creating some quite predictable chaos.

Omicron: Who needs action when you’ve got Plan B?

A total of 125 passengers flying from Italy to Amritsar have tested Covid positive on arrival at Amritsar airport. The flight had 179 passengers on board.

125 passengers of Italy-Amritsar flight test Covid positive

The West: "We think you're doing covid pandemic strategy all wrong." Asia: "We don't think of you at all."

Level increased regardless of health but virus ‘picks on’ those already at risk of illness or death

First Covid wave raised UK adult risk of death by 40%, study finds

WE HAVE been watching evolution in action as one coronavirus variant after another emerges and triggers further waves of infections around the world. There is every reason to think this will continue during 2022 – and there is no guarantee that future variants will be any less dangerous.

2022 preview: What will the coronavirus do next?

Children aged five to 11 can now be registered for a Covid-19 vaccine in the Republic of Ireland, the Health Service Executive (HSE) has said.

Covid jab offered to five to 11-year-old children in Ireland

The COVID data coming out of NYC jails is...beyond staggering. Today's report shows a 7-day avg positivity rate of 37%, w/502 ACTIVE INFECTIONS. With a ~5K census, that means that nearly one in ten people in DOC has an ACTIVE infection. Crisis on crisis. https://hhinternet.blob.core.windows.net/uploads/2022/01/CHS-COVID-19-data-snapshot-2020103.pdf

"Eminent" Professor Sunetra Gupta retweets pub landlord. The advancement of "science" 2020-2022...

10.1038/d41586-021-03821-8

Africa urgently needs to guarantee its own health security.

Two years of COVID-19 in Africa: lessons for the world

Public could reduce mixing in January in the face of rising infections and hospital admissions, which could lead to the peak lasting longer than initially thought

Omicron Covid variant’s peak could be ‘long and drawn out’, Sage scientists warn as pressure mounts on NHS

Warning on death data on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk NHS England has not reported hospital deaths since 1 January. The backlog will be reported Wednesday. Data are incomplete yesterday, today and tomorrow. Expect a bigger number reported on Wednesday.

It’s deadly, malicious and there’s no vaccine. The infodemic is here. But it's not unstoppable.

Misinformation from the U.S. is the next virus—and it’s spreading fast

Dec. 24. 2021 -- The first confirmed death from the Omicron variant in the U.S. was a reinfection.

First Omicron Death in U.S. Was Reinfection

NHS Chiefs: 'Hospitals in Crisis' Head Teachers: 'Schools in Crisis' Prime Minister: 'Crisis? What Crisis?' (i.e. you will have to sort it out without any support from us)

10.1038/d41586-021-03846-z

The Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was initially identified in November of 2021 in South Africa and Botswana as well as in a sample from a traveler from South Africa in Hong Kong1,2. Since then, B.1.1.529 has been detected globally. This variant seems to be at least equally infectious than B.1.617.2 (Delta), has already caused super spreader events3 and has outcompeted Delta within weeks in several countries and metropolitan areas. B.1.1.529 hosts an unprecedented number of mutations in its spike gene and early reports have provided evidence for extensive immune escape and reduced vaccine effectiveness2,4-6. Here, we investigated the neutralizing and binding activity of sera from convalescent, mRNA double vaccinated, mRNA boosted, convalescent double vaccinated, and convalescent boosted individuals against wild type, B.1.351 and B.1.1.529 SARS-CoV-2 isolates. Neutralizing activity of sera from convalescent and double vaccinated participants was undetectable to very low against B.1.1.529 while neutralizing activity of sera from individuals who had been exposed to spike three or four times was maintained, albeit at significantly reduced levels. Binding to the B.1.1.529 receptor binding domain (RBD) and N-terminal domain (NTD) was reduced in convalescent not vaccinated individuals, but was mostly retained in vaccinated individuals.

Activity of convalescent and vaccine serum against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron

Scientists are working at speed to assess transmission rates, vaccine effectiveness and severity of cases

What do we know about the Omicron Covid variant so far?

SARS-CoV-2 variants have become a major virological, epidemiological and clinical 35 concern, particularly with regard to the risk of escape from vaccine-induced immunity. Here 36 we describe the emergence of a new variant. For twelve SARS-CoV-positive patients living in 37 the same geographical area of southeastern France, qPCR testing that screen for variant-38 associated mutations showed an atypical combination. The index case returned from a travel 39 in Cameroon. The genomes were obtained by next-generation sequencing with Oxford 40 Nanopore Technologies on GridION instruments within 8 h. Their analysis revealed 46 41 mutations and 37 deletions resulting in 30 amino acid substitutions and 12 deletions. Fourteen 42 amino acid substitutions, including N501Y and E484K, and 9 deletions are located in the 43 spike protein. This genotype pattern led to create a new Pangolin lineage named B.1.640.2, 44 which is a phylogenetic sister group to the old B.1.640 lineage renamed B.1.640.1. Both 45 lineages differ by 25 nucleotide substitutions and 33 deletions. The mutation set and 46 phylogenetic position of the genomes obtained here indicate based on our previous definition 47 a new variant we named “IHU”. These data are another example of the unpredictability of the 48 emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants, and of their introduction in a given geographical area 49 from abroad.

Emergence in Southern France of a new SARS-CoV-2 variant of probably Cameroonian 4 origin harbouring both substitutions N501Y and E484K in the spike protein

Your 2022 reminder that Arnold Schwarzenegger is an absolute gem

10.1186/s41235-021-00346-6

Given that being misinformed can have negative ramifications, finding optimal corrective techniques has become a key focus of research. In recent years, several divergent correction formats have been proposed as superior based on distinct theoretical frameworks. However, these correction formats have not been compared in controlled settings, so the suggested superiority of each format remains speculative. Across four experiments, the current paper investigated how altering the format of corrections influences people’s subsequent reliance on misinformation. We examined whether myth-first, fact-first, fact-only, or myth-only correction formats were most effective, using a range of different materials and participant pools. Experiments 1 and 2 focused on climate change misconceptions; participants were Qualtrics online panel members and students taking part in a massive open online course, respectively. Experiments 3 and 4 used misconceptions from a diverse set of topics, with Amazon Mechanical Turk crowdworkers and university student participants. We found that the impact of a correction on beliefs and inferential reasoning was largely independent of the specific format used. The clearest evidence for any potential relative superiority emerged in Experiment 4, which found that the myth-first format was more effective at myth correction than the fact-first format after a delayed retention interval. However, in general it appeared that as long as the key ingredients of a correction were presented, format did not make a considerable difference. This suggests that simply providing corrective information, regardless of format, is far more important than how the correction is presented.

Correction format has a limited role when debunking misinformation

There is nothing in the current Covid data to suggest new curbs are needed in England at this stage, ministers say.

Coronavirus: Nothing in current data to support new curbs in England - ministers

Friday musings - 5 stages of pandemic grief. (I'm sure you'll have ideas too of what to add!)

Firm cites ‘isolation and sickness’ as it says it will run no services to or from station until 10 January

Southern cancels London Victoria trains for two weeks over Covid

10.1101/2021.12.30.21268307

Throughout the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the worldwide transmission and replication of SARS- COV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19 disease, has resulted in the opportunity for multiple mutations to occur that may alter the virus transmission characteristics, the effectiveness of vaccines and the severity of disease upon infection. The Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) was first reported to the WHO by South Africa on 24 November 2021 and was declared a variant of concern by the WHO on 26 November 2021. The variant was first detected in the UK on 27 November 2021 and has since been reported in a number of countries globally where it is frequently associated with rapid increase in cases. Here we present analyses of UK data showing the earliest signatures of the Omicron variant and mathematical modelling that uses the UK data to simulate the potential impact of this variant in the UK. In order to account for the uncertainty in transmission advantage, vaccine escape and severity at the time of writing, we carry out a sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of these variant characteristics on future risk.

Short-term Projections based on Early Omicron Variant Dynamics in England.

Marisa Fotieo says she was supplied with food and drinks in cubicle after throat began to hurt during flight from US to Iceland

Woman self-isolates in plane toilet for five hours after Covid-positive test mid-flight

Just so I have this clear in my own mind...the Govt has relentlessly pushed the narrative of no need for more restrictions and yet the NHS is building makeshift field hospitals in its car parks

Leeds Hospital to host one of the first 'Nightingale hubs' based in a car park at St James's Hospital. NHS wants space for up to 4k extra beds nationally...but who will staff these beds?

#RobertMalone suspended by #twitter today. Reaction: 1) Great news. He has been spreading harmful #misinformation. (He has NOT contributed to meaningful/constructive scientific debate. His views demonstrably wrong & polarizing.) 2) What took so long? #ScienceUpFirst

10.31234/osf.io/kz2yh

Recently, Altay et al (2020) showed that five minutes of interaction with a chatbot led to increases in Covid-19 vaccination attitudes and intentions in a randomly sampled French population, compared to a brief control condition. Here we replicate and qualify this effect, whilst attempting to isolate what made the chatbot condition so effective. We reduce the chatbot information to several fact-checked and updated dialogues, and introduce strict controls to isolate the effect of choice of information. We control the amount of information provided, the time spent with the information, the trustworthiness of the information, and the level of interactivity. Like Altay et al, our experiment allowed participants to navigate a branching dialogue by choosing questions of interest, eliciting set answers on aspects of the Covid-19 vaccine. Our control condition used the same questions and answers but removed all elements of participant choice. In this way, our experiment isolated the effect of participant choice of information. We also specifically targeted those who were either against or neutral towards Covid-19 vaccinations, screening-out those with already positive attitudes. Replicating Altay et al, we found a similar size increase in positive attitudes towards vaccination, as well as a similar sized increase in intention to get vaccinated, after engaging with vaccine information. Unlike Altay et al, we found no difference between our conditions: choosing the questions did not increase vaccine attitudes or intentions anymore than our control condition. In common with Altay et al, we also found an effect of time spent with the information, across both conditions, in that those who spent between 4 and 16 minutes (above the median) reading the information were more likely to increase their vaccination attitudes (but not their intentions). These results suggest that the attitudes of the vaccine hesitant are modifiable with exposure to in-depth, trustworthy and engaging dialogues.

Covid-19 vaccine dialogues increase vaccination intentions and attitudes in a vaccine-hesitant UK population

10.31234/osf.io/6wy53

During the past decade the idea that expertise is dead, or at best moribund, has become commonplace. Knowledge resistance appears to be growing more politicized and is increasing across a wide range of science-based topics, such as agriculture, evolution and genetics, vaccination, and climate change; even flat-earth beliefs are undergoing a renaissance. But in many of these areas, denying expert authority is cost-free in everyday behavior, making it more rational for people to prize identity and group affiliation over realism. To probe the health of expertise in a domain with everyday consequences for knowledge resistance, we conducted three incentive-compatible studies of laypeople’s preferences for sources of information they would read about specific medical conditions (e.g., heart disease, cancer, COVID-19). We found quite rational preference patterns, by which people preferred sources based on experts (physicians and scientists) over non-experts (celebrities and politicians) and group consensus (professional societies, polls) over individual opinions. These findings held most strongly for issues of personal medical concern, but were robust for less concerning health conditions, and for the highly politicized topic of COVID-19. Individuals who scored higher in intellectual humility and preferences for rational over experiential thinking were more likely to prefer the most expert sources. Expertise retains broad respect in the medical domain, at least when one’s own health is at stake.

Reports of the Death of Expertise May Be Exaggerated: Limits on Knowledge Resistance in Health and Medicine

10.31234/osf.io/j3t76

The COVID-19 Pandemic has had a significant impact on society. Due to the large lose of life, scientists have attempted to develop various rapid testing methods. Several methods have been developed among them, an inexpensive paper test. The researcher has endeavored to determine what factors will influence a person’s willing to take a daily covid-19 test. Via a survey instrument that was disseminated we received a response of N=546 participants. We performed many standard statistical tests, t-tests, and one way ANOVA’s as well as Chi Squared tests and Linear by linear associations. Via this analysis were able to determine that there is a statistical significance between willingness to take daily rapid covid-19 test (p <0.05 and, washing your hand (p <0.001), being cautious of your actions (p <0.001), being concerned about covid-19 (p <0.001) and preventing things before they happen (p <0.001). Risk averse people more likely to take preventative measures to take actions to protect themselves and others around them. The lack of basic knowledge regarding the replication of SAR-CoV-2, has led people to underestimate the rapid spread of the virus. Thus, people are coming in contact with others during the most virulent state of the virus.

Rapid COVID-19 Test: Investigating the Willingness to Take a Rapid Test Based on Multiple Factors

10.31234/osf.io/vam4t

Objectives: Qualitative study exploring public attitudes to COVID-19 18 months into the pandemic, specifically focused on adherence to infection-reducing behaviours and policy measures during a period of the emergence of a new variant (Omicron) Study design: Qualitative online focus group study Methods: Focus groups were conducted with a diverse sample of 22 adults in the United Kingdom to explore their views. Data were analysed using a framework approach. Findings: Analysis revealed two main groups based on participants’ perceived concern over Omicron: variant fatigue (n=16 (73%)) and deja vu (n=6 (27%)). Those exhibiting variant fatigue reported not adopting any additional caution or infection-reducing behaviours as a result of the new variant. They tended to describe Omicron as ‘just another variant’ and expressed a need to ‘get on’ and ‘live with’ the virus. Those exhibiting deja vu suggested that Omicron was of additional concern to them and for some posed a threat not seen since ‘last year’ (second wave). No demographic patterns emerged, although there was a high amount of variant fatigue (absence of additional caution) (n=5 (83%)) amongst the unvaccinated participants. Those who were concerned about Omicron tended to report reducing social contacts. Few participants reported taking lateral flow tests regularly, except for those required to by their employers. Stated compliance with facemask rules was high. Nearly all participants stated an intention to comply with any future potential policy measures to reduce transmission of COVID-19, including more stringent measures such as lockdowns. Implications: 18 months into the pandemic, there may be habituation to the risk posed by COVID-19, despite the increased risk posed by the new variant Omicron. Due to this risk habituation (‘variant fatigue’) and due to a general decline in engagement with news related to COVID-19, many people may not be, or might be reluctant to, voluntarily adopt additional caution and infection-reducing behaviours. This poses a challenge for public health communication, since a sense of being ‘relaxed’ about, or ‘living with’ COVID-19 may undermine efforts to encourage voluntary adherence to infection-reducing behaviours. However, findings suggest that most people intend to comply (albeit reluctantly) with policy measures (as opposed to ‘advice’)- including stringent measures such as lockdown - if they were required in future.

‘Variant fatigue’? Public attitudes to COVID-19 18 months into the pandemic: A qualitative study

10.31234/osf.io/zvrdj

Faced with the SARS-CoV-2pandemic, we decided to investigate if recovery from this large exogenous global shock depended on both emotional and economic recovery. We piloted a survey from May 2020 – August 2020 to examine how exposure to this global pandemic shaped economic outlook, and we documented the innate emotional styles of respondents. We then sought to answer two questions. Do the emotional style dimensions have anything to do with economic recovery? And are wages and emotional dimensions associated with economic outlook? With these questions in mind, we estimated two structural equation models. We jointly estimated all six emotional dimensions for the first question and assessed their impact on economic outlook. We estimated a structural model with a Mincer-wage equation and emotional outlook, resilience, and attention equations for the second question. We found that emotional outlook was positively and significantly correlated with economic outlook. We also found that wages, emotional- outlook, resilience, and attention were correlated with returning to behavior-normal, meaning once the public health crisis abates, fear will cease to restrict mobility in all sectors. We found pessimism over returning to business-normal, patronizing businesses that are significantly affected by the pandemic could have a dampening effect on economic recovery. However, this could be offset by the positive correlations between emotional outlook on economic outlook and returning to behavior-normal, both of which could boost economic recovery. From a public policy standpoint fostering a positive emotional outlook and encouraging emotional resilience could be the mojo needed for faster economic recovery.

Economic and Emotional Perceptions During and After COVID19

10.31234/osf.io/erta5

A healthy diet and lifestyle may protect against adverse mental health outcomes, which is especially crucial during stressful times, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. This preregistered longitudinal online study explored whether diet and lifestyle (physical activity, sleep, and social interactions) could predict wellbeing and mood during a light lockdown in Germany. Participants (N = 117, 72 males; 28  9 years old) answered mental health and lifestyle questionnaires (social connections, sleep, activity) followed by submitting one week of food and mood-lifestyle diary (food intake, positive and negative mood, mental wellbeing, sleep quality, physical activity level, quantity and quality of social interactions) via a smartphone app. We used multivariate linear and mixed-effects models to predict mood and wellbeing by using dietary components and lifestyle factors. Inter-individual analyses revealed that sleep and social interaction significantly impacted mood and wellbeing. Interestingly, fruit and vegetable intake predicted wellbeing, even when controlling for all lifestyle factors. Fruit and vegetable intake also significantly predicted daily fluctuations in wellbeing within individuals next to sleep, physical activity, and social interactions. We observed gender differences in fruit and vegetable intake and anxiety levels. Our results emphasize the importance of diet contributing to individual wellbeing, even in the challenging times of a pandemic.

The impact of diet and lifestyle on wellbeing during COVID-19-lockdown

10.31234/osf.io/2whmp

With the widespread adoption of masks, there is a need for understanding how facial obstruction affects emotion recognition. We asked 120 participants to identify emotions from faces with and without masks. We also examined if recognition performance was related to autistic traits and personality. Masks impacted recognition of expressions with diagnostic lower face features the most and those with diagnostic upper face features the least. Persons with higher autistic traits were worse at identifying unmasked expressions, while persons with lower extraversion and higher agreeableness were better at recognizing masked expressions. These results show that different features play different roles in emotion recognition and suggest that obscuring features affects social communication differently as a function of autistic traits and personality.

Face masks impair basic emotion recognition: Group effects and individual variability (Accepted for Publication in Social Psychology)

A WOMAN has contracted Covid after going to a pub where a barmaid claims she was told to work with coronavirus symptoms.

Woman slams pub after catching Covid after Christmas party

Heck of a time to relax NPIs.

7/ the virus is almost exactly like the flu so there is no need to panic. except it kills lots more people, causes some kind of poorly understood neurological changes, and sometimes lingers for months. but all that’s neither here nor there. basically the same.

6/ the virus is airborne but it hates perspex. You put a perspex sheet in its path and it self-destructs out of frustration. Doesn’t matter the size of the room or the size of the Perspex.

5/ related to point 4, the virus hates losses in productivity. Just this past week, a negotiation was held with the virus, and it agreed to hurry and and do what it needs to do quickly so people can get back to work.

4/ the virus can only infect people that are having a good time and not a boring time. That’s why it spreads at parties and other social gatherings but not at schools or workplaces.

3/ in restaurants, the virus is temporarily deactivated when patrons are seated at their tables. As soon as they stand to go to the bathroom or bar (for instance) it promptly reactivates.

2/ for people in a queue, the virus weakens and dies if it must travel perpendicular to the direction of the queue. That’s why people must stand 6 feet apart from the people ahead of and behind them, but not the people next to them in a winding queue. It hates right angles.

1/ the virus spreads well in indoor settings without proper ventilation (e.g. restaurants), but not when the indoor space was built on the sidewalk or street in New York between August of 2020 and January of 2021.

As a non-virologist, here are some things I have learned about covid that I would not have guessed before the pandemic. They are super counter-intuitive:

On the afternoon of New Year’s Eve, just hours from when 2019 was going to segue into 2020, I read an email about some unusual pneumonia cases in China’s Hubei province. Over the past couple of decades, China has been a wellspring of dangerous zoonotic diseases — SARS, H5N1 bird flu, and H7N9 bird flu. Better keep an eye on this, I thought to myself. Fast-forward two years. We’re entering the third year of the Covid-19 pandemic. So much has happened in the intervening months. Some things have gone surprisingly well, notably the rapid development of Covid vaccines and some therapeutics. But far more things have gone horribly wrong.Multiple commissions and panels have been set up to learn the lessons of this pandemic so that we don’t repeat the same mistakes next time. (Yes, sadly, there will be a next time.) More commissions and panels are likely to follow. But already, some things have become abundantly clear. Here are 10 lessons I’ve learned in the past two years.

10 lessons I’ve learned from the Covid–19 pandemic