for - social tipping points - climate change

for - stats - climate change - emissions reductions from behavioral change - 20% reduction in households

for - stats - climate change - emissions reductions from behavioral change - 33% reduction in EU

for - climate target of 1.5 Deg C - incrementalism won't work - rapid system change is necessary

for - stats - Perato's law - social transformation - fascism, polarization and climate crisis - climate communication - 80% will change if we listen, 19% will require deeper conversations - 1% will not change - Roger Hallam

for - quote - the Nation (state) is no longer able to force the State to regulate the Market - Michel Bauwens - climate crisis - transnational capitalism escapes the regulation of nation states - example - COP conferences and climate change

for - quote - transnational capitalism escapes the regulation of nation states - Michel Bauwens - climate crisis - transnational capitalism escapes the regulation of nation states - example - COP conferences and climate change quote - transnational capitalism escapes the regulation of nation states - Michel Bauwens (see below) - The nation-state equilibrium started to be disrupted in the 1980s. - Neoliberalism is in fact, also a failed attempt at global regulation. - Several events, such as - the conservative counter-revolution of Thatcher and Reagan, - the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989-91, and - the failure of the first attempt at democratic coordination of the economy in Chile (Cybersyn), - contributed to the emergence of a new world order in which, for the first time in history, - transnational capital could significantly escape the regulation of the nation-states, rendering the latter inoperative. - This was of course done consciously and with the collaboration of neoliberal nation-states.

comment - This is why climate change agreements at the nation-state level, such as COP conferences, are such dismal failures - Trump was bought out by billionaires who wanted to maintain their status quo money-making-machines - In this sense, this is conservatism at work - Economic, fossil-fuel incumbents teamed up with Christian fundamentalists to make a last valiant attempt at preserving the old order - Unfortunately, if they succeed, it will definitely accelerate their demise as well as the entire biosphere

for - idea - question - sensory substitution - can we make a sensory substitution for climate change impacts?

Drei Klimawissenschaftlerinnen wehren sich in einem Kommentar in Nature gegen den Vorwurf, sie betrieben keine objektive Wissenschaft, weil sie ihren Schmerz angesichts der fortschreitenden Klimakrise offen kommunizieren. Gefühle seien Teil der Realität und dürften von Forschenden nicht unterdrückt werden. Gefühle auszuschließen werde vor allem von Privilegierten zur Norm erklärt, die den Folgen der Klimakrise kaum ausgesetzt seien https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/25/we-have-emotions-too-climate-scientists-respond-to-attacks-on-objectivity

Nature-Artikel: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02139-3

Die von Waldbränden außerhalb der Tropen verursachten Emissionen haben sich seit 2001 fast verdreifacht. Weltweit haben die Emissionen durch Waldbrände in dieser Zeit um 60% zugenommen. Ursache dafür ist die Kombination von heißerem und trockenerem Wetter mit dem schnelleren Wachstum der Wälder durch die höheren Temperaturen. Die Wälder können durch die Brände jahrzehntelang zu Emittenten werden. Damit ist die Funktion der Wälder als Kohlenstoffsenken gefährdet. Das bedeutet auch, dass sie andere anthropogene Emissionen weniger kompensieren und die Fähigkeit verlieren, nach einem Überschreiten der 1,5°-Grenze C0₂ aus der Atmosphäre zu entfernen. Außerdem müssten diese von Menschen verursachten Emissonen den C0₂-Budgets der Nationalstaaten zugeordnet werden.

https://theconversation.com/forest-fires-are-shifting-north-and-intensifying-heres-what-that-means-for-the-planet-241337

Erstmals wurde genau erfasst, welcher Teil der von Waldbränden betroffenen Gebiete sich auf die menschlich verursachte Erhitzung zurückführen lässt. Er wächst seit 20 Jahren deutlich an. Insgesamt kompensieren die auf die Erhitzung zurückgehenden Waldbrände den Rückgang an Bränden durch Entwaldung. Der von Menschen verursachte – und für die Berechnung von Schadensansprüchen relevante – Anteil der CO2-Emissione ist damit deutlich höher als bisher angenommen https://www.carbonbrief.org/climate-change-almost-wipes-out-decline-in-global-area-burned-by-wildfires/

Die CO2-Emissionen durch Waldbrände haben seit 2001 um 60% zugenommen, wie sich aus einer neuen Studie ergibt. Den größten Anteil daran haben die borealen Wälder Kanadas und Sibiriens. Sie gehören zu einem Typ von Wäldern, der besonders schlecht an die globale Erhitzung angepasst ist. Die beobachteten Emissionen durch Waldbrände machen unwahscheinlicher, dass Wälder in Zukunft von Menschen emittiertes CO2 reduzieren können. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/17/climate/carbon-fires-forests-global-warming.html

Studie: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adl5889

Klimapolitik spielt in der Kampagne von Kamala Harris fast keine Rolle. Stattdessen versucht sie konservative Wähler:innen mit Statements für Öl- und Gasproduktion zu gewinnen. Klimaplitiker:innen, Klimabewegungen und Fachleute für Klimakommunikation kritisieren, dass Harris die Sorgen vieler Wähler:innen wegen der Folgen der globalen Erhitzung nicht ernst genug nimmt https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/18/kamala-harris-climate-change-plan-environment

1:14;46 Our greatest existential threat is not CLIMATE CHANGE it is MIND CHANGE which leads to a CHANGE IN LANGUAGE

for - quote - climate crisis - behavioral change - system change - importance of showing impacts - example - climate departure project

quote - climate crisis - behavioral change - system change - importance of showing impacts - example - climate departure project - Eltahir - To get people to act, my hypothesis is, you need to reach them - not just by convincing them to be good citizens and saying it’s good for the world to keep below 1.5 degrees, but - showing how they individually will be impacted,”

Eine neue attribution studie zeigt komme das die globale erhitzung den haare können helene zweieinhalb mal wahrscheinlicher gemacht und zehn prozent zudem wassermassen beigetragen hat cover die dabei herunter kamen'https://www.liberation.fr/environnement/climat/ouragan-helene-le-rechauffement-rend-ce-genre-devenements-25-fois-plus-probables-20241009_FMIJOIVH4NATVHKB6NZRN6O7KE/

for - Food for Climate League - food - climate change - climate crisis - food system

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/sep/25/climate-scientists-call-on-labour-to-pause-1bn-investment-plans-carbon-capture-blue-hydrogen

for - food - climate change - Food for Climate League - Lisa Feldman - Food for Climate League - Project Drawdown interview

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/16/biden-inflation-reduction-act-tax-benefit-wealthy

for - climate change impacts - marine life - citizen-science - potential project - climate departure - ocean heating impacts - marine life - marine migration - migrating species face collapse - migration to escape warming oceans - population collapse

main research findings - Study involved 146 species of temperate or subpolar fish and 2,572 time series - Extremely fast moving species (17km/year) showed large declines in population while - fish that did not shift showed negligible decline - Those on the northernmost edge experienced the largest declines - There is speculation that the fastest moving ones are the also the one's with the least evolutionary adaptations for new environments

for - Climate change psychology - Per Espen Stokes - the 5 Ds

Climate change psychology - Per Espen Stokes - the 5 Ds - Distance - far away in spatial distance and time - also consider hyperobjects - Timothy Morton - Doom - crying wolf makes us discredit the alarm message - second time we hear a doom message, 40% less salience - avoidance behavior - discredit climate activists - Dissonance - disconnect between belief and action - Denial - we can make lots of excuses - blame others - compare our footprint to others with much larger ones - temporary concern but quickly move on to other topics - iDentity - spend many years to build up my identity - factual inputs are compared to my identity's values - identity values usually trump facts when our identity is threatened

climate crisis intervention - Any psychology-based climate intervention needs to leverage a combination of the 5 Ds.

for - climate change psychology - video - youtube - Al Jazeera - All Hall the Planet - Why our brains are wired to ignore the climate crisis - Per Espen Stokes - interview

summary - A good introduction to climate change psychology - Per Espen Stokes is interviewed and he discusses his 5 Ds

for - comparison of urgency - climate change vs endocrine disruptors - Jeremy Grantham

for - Climate change impacts - human extinction - don't think so - paleontological evidence shows that humans are a resilient species

Climate change impacts - human extinction - don't think so - paleontological evidence shows that humans are a resilient species - ice ages are really extreme events that humans have survived - Before entering the holocene interglacial period we have been in for the past 10,000 years, the exit from the previous Ice Age took approximately 10,000 years and - there was 400 feet of sea level rise - North America was covered with an Antarctica's equivalence of ice thickness - there was a quarter less vegetation a on the planet - it was dusty and miserable living conditions - There have been dozens of these natural climate oscillations over the past two and a half million years and humans are about 5 to 6 million years old, so have survived all of these - Sometimes in really particularly harsh climate swings,<br /> - speciations of new hominids will appear along with - new tools in the record or - evidence that there's been better control over fire - Humans are resilient and super adaptable - We've lived and adapted to the conditions on all the continents - We will make it through, but modern, industrialized, global society likely won't

for - agriculture - climate change challenge - less rainwater and less water retentive soils

for - social tipping point - 2023 paper - paper details

paper details - title: The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to majority - author - Jordan Everall - Jonathan. F Donges - Ilona. M. Otto - Preprint date - 20 Nov 2023 - Publication - EGUsphere Preprint Repository

summary - This is a recent 2023 paper that summarizes social tipping point research for fields of interest to me, such as climate change. - I'm reading, looking for any real world experimental validation of social tipping point in climate change - I didn't find any but still interesting

from - search - google - research on complex contagion refutes the 25% social tipping point threshold - https://www.google.com/search?q=research+on+complex+contagion+refutes+the+25%25+social+tipping+point+threshold&oq=research+on+complex+contagion+refutes+the+25%25+social+tipping+point+threshold&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIGCAEQRRhA0gEJMjAyOTRqMGo3qAIAsAIA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8 - search results returned of interest - The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to ... - https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2241/

https://www.liberation.fr/environnement/climat/records-de-chaleurs-mensuel-annuel-et-decennal-des-anomalies-de-plus-en-plus-normales-20240605_GZKMZFLXKVCWLBSGG4AYQHVBSE/

Die globale Durchschnittstemperatur hat sich von 2014 bis 2023 um 0,26 Grad erhöht, das ist deutlich mehr als in den zehn Jahren davor. Die Beschleunigung der Erderhitzung erschwert das Erreichen des 1,5 Grad Ziels zusätzlich. Die neuen Daten wurden in einer Studie anlässlich der Klima-Zwischen-Konferenz in Bonn publiziert. https://www.liberation.fr/environnement/climat/le-rechauffement-climatique-engendre-par-lhumanite-a-un-rythme-sans-precedent-avertit-une-etude-scientifique-20240605_UP2TYIV67RC6VA4XMKHF45KZ5I/

for - question - impact of climate change on male and female population distribution of the biosphere

question - impact of climate change on male and female population distribution of the biosphere - How will climate change affect the proportion of males and females of the many species that are and will be impacted by dramatic temperature changes?

Das globale Durchschnittseinkommen wird bei der jetzt zu erwartenden globalen Erhitzung 2050 fast um ein Fünttel niedriger sein als ohne Erhitzung. Die (nicht mehr zu vermeidenden) Einbußen durch die Erhitzung bis 2050 sind sechsmal so hoch wie die einer Begrenzung des Temperaturanstiegs auf 2°. 2050 ist einer neuen Studie zufolge mit Klimaschäden von etwa 38 Bllionen Dollar zu rechnen. Bis 2100 wird es in einem Business-as-usual-Szenario zu Einkommensverlusten von mehr als 60% kommen. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/17/climate-crisis-average-world-incomes-to-drop-by-nearly-a-fifth-by-2050

Ohne einzelne Länder zu nennen, hat der neue IPCC-Chef Jim Skea die Entscheidungen der brititischen und anderer Regierungen kritisiert, die Dekarboisierung zu verlangsamen und neue Öl- und Gasfelder zu genehmigen. Nicht ob, sondern wie Null-Emissionen erreicht würden, entscheide darüber, ob und wann die Erhitzung aufgehalten werden könne. Der Klimawissenschaftler Joeri Rogelj sprach von einem „abrupten Rollback“ in Großbritannien. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/02/slow-route-to-net-zero-will-worsen-global-climate-crisis-ipcc-chief-warns

Die rohölproduktion in den USA wird in diesem Jahr ein Rekord-Hoch erreichen Etwa 25% der US-Emissionen werden durch Öl und Gas verursacht, das auf Bundesterritorien gefördert wird. Die New York Times zeigt ausgehend von einem Beispiel im Golf von Mexiko, warum es angesichts der Mehrheitsverhältnisse in Repräsentantenhaus und Senat und des konservativen obersten Gerichtshofs für die für die Biden-Administration extrem schwierig ist, die Zusage, dort keine weiteren Bohrungen zuzulassen, umzusetzen.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/28/climate/biden-drilling-leases.html

Die Pläne der Kohle-, Öl- und gasproduzierenden Staaten zur Ausweitung der Förderung würden 2030 zu 460% mehr Kohle, 83% mehr Gas und 29% mehr Ölproduktion führen, als mit dem Pariser Abkommen vereinbar ist. Der aktuelle Production Gap Report der Vereinten Nationen konzentriert sich auf die 20 stärksten Verschmutzer-Staaten, deren Pläne fast durchgängig in radikalem Widerspruch zum Pariser Abkommen stehen. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/08/insanity-petrostates-planning-huge-expansion-of-fossil-fuels-says-un-report

Report: https://productiongap.org/

for - communities and individuals - liberalism

from - .book - liberalism and the challenge of climate change - https://hyp.is/NDACig4VEe-ci1Oome4_kw/bafybeibgduwvv4dya4nwez5bcy24z5ya27oisiixpioafnxjjx56jgkv4m.ipfs.localhost:8080/

journal article details - title - Communities and the individual: Beyond the liberal-communitarian divide - date - May 11, 2021 - authors - Volker Kaul

for - key insight - Whitehead's fallacy of misplaced concreteness - adjacency - fallacy of misplaced concreteness - climate denialism - mistrust in science - polycrisis - Deep Humanity

• the worry for Goethe and whitehead is that
  • we forget sometimes with the typical scientific method that = we can only ever apply concepts derived from our empirical experience
• and so if we're trying to understand experience as if it were really
  • an illusion produced by
    • collisions of particles or
    • brain chemistry or
    • something that we can never in principle experience
• what we're doing is
  • applying concepts derived from our experience
  • to an imagined realm that
    • we think is beyond experience
• but it's not
• This is Whitehead's fallacy of misplaced concreteness.

key insight - Whitehead's fallacy of misplaced concreteness - This helps explain the rising rejection of science from the masses. I didn't realize there was already a name for the phenomena responsible for the emergence of collective denialist behavior

adjacency - between - fallacy of misplaced concreteness - increasing collective rejection of science in the polycrisis - adjacency statement - Whitehead's fallacy of misplaced concreteness exactly names and describes - the growing trend of a populus rejection of climate science (climate denialism), COVID vaccine denialism, exponential growth of conspiracy theory and misinformation - because of the inability for non-elites and elites alike to concretize abstractions the same way that elite scientists and policy-makers do - Research papers have shown that the knowledge deficit model which was relied upon for decades was not accurate representation of climate denialism - Yet, I would hold that Whitehead's fallacy of misplaced concretism plays a role here - This mistrust in science is rooted in this fallacy as well as progress traps - Deep Humanity is quite steeped in Whitehead's process relational ontology and the fallacy of misplaced concreteness requires mass education for a sustainable transition - This abstract concreteness is everywhere: - Shift from Ptolemy's geocentric worldview to the Copernican heliocentric worldview - Now we are told that the sun is not fixed, but is itself rotating around the Milky Way with billions of other galaxies - scientific techniques like radiocarbon dating for dating objects in deep time - climate science - atomic physics - quantum physics - distrust of vaccines, which we cannot see - Timothy Morton's hyperobjects is related to this fallacy of misplaced concreteness. - "Seeing is believing" but we cannot directly experience the ultra large or ultra small. So we have scientific language that draws parallels to that, but it is not a direct experience. - - Those not steeped in years or decades of science have the very real option of feeling that the concepts are fallacies and don't hold as much weight as that which they can experience directly, even though those concepts have obviously produced artefacts that they use, like cellphones, the internet and airplanes.

for - Extinction Rebellion - Vancouver - Extinction Rebellion - change of strategy - climate crisis - protests - Extinction Rebellion - moving away from public disruption - Unify Regional Extinction Rebellion

potential collaboration - opportunity - partnership - there is an opportunity to collaborate with them - as they enter this new phase of their work

Ice cores provide a history of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere

Using ratio of the molecular weight of water to determine temperature

[[Marisa Kabas]] in The Handbasket - Here's the column Meta doesn't want you to see

ᔥ[[Ben Werdmuller]] in Mastodon @ben@werd.social on Apr 06, 2024, 10:45 AM

On Thursday I reported that Meta had blocked all links to the Kansas Reflector from approximately 8am to 4pm, citing cybersecurity concerns after the nonprofit published a column critical of Facebook’s climate change ad policy. By late afternoon, all links were once again able to be posted on Facebook, Threads and Instagram–except for the critical column." Here it is. #Media<br /> https://www.thehandbasket.co/p/kansas-reflector-meta-facebook-column-censored

Der Amazonas-Regenwald kommt dem Kipppunkt, an dem er mehr CO2 abgibt als aufnimmt, immer näher. Eine neue Studie sagt vorraus, dass bis 2050 47% des Gebietes geschädigt sein könnten. Von Juni bis Dezember 2023 herrschte dort eine externe Dürre, die einer Attributionsstudie zufolge durch die globale Erhitzung 30mal wahrscheinlicher wurde. https://taz.de/Klimawandel/!5990314/

Studie: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06970-0

Attributionsstudie: https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-not-el-nino-main-driver-of-exceptional-drought-in-highly-vulnerable-amazon-river-basin/

for - progress traps - tree planting - climate change

for - adjacency - liberalism - ubiquity - invisibility - polycrisis - climate change - climate crisis - book - Liberalism and the Challenge of Climate Change

summary - This is an insightful interview with Dr. Christopher Shaw as he discusses his book, Liberalism and the Challenge of Climate Change.

adjacency - between - liberalism - ubiquity - invisibility - polycrisis - metaphor - fish in water, fish in the ocean - adjacency statement - Above all, this book points out that - liberalism is an idea that is - so ubiquitous and j - which everyone without exception is profoundly steeped within that, - like fish in water, a medium that is everywhere, the medium becomes invisible. - At the heart of - modernity's culture wars and - political polarization, - there is a kind of false dichotomy between - liberals and - conservatives, - as both are steeped in the worldview of liberalism - From the Stop Reset Go perspective, - Dr. Shaw's thesis aligns with - the Stop Reset Go Deep Humanity open source praxis, - whose essence is precisely to facilitate helping individuals to understand the powerful connection between - ubiquity and - invisibility. - via Common Human Denominators (CHD)

key insight - of all about the venison of individual liberty that modernization had sold is a companion bill of goods on

Bei einem hohen Emissionsszenario wird es weltweit in jeder achten der jetzigen Ski-Destinationen am Ende dieses Jahrhunderts keinen Schnee mehr geben. Auch für viele andere Skiorte hat die globale Erhitzung dramatische folgen. Eine neue Studie erfasst sie aufgrund genauer regionaler Modellierungen. https://www.repubblica.it/green-and-blue/2024/03/13/news/neve_sci_impianti_chiusi-422305098/

CO2 is a proxy for human population size.<br /> the problem is global overpopulation, but no one has the balls to face it

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/mar/07/ai-climate-change-energy-disinformation-report

https://shindig.com/login/event/100yearedtechlive

Cross reference The Parrot and the Igloo.

for - climate crisis - 2023 U.S. poll - demographics - climate communication - 2023 U.S. poll - demographics - climate change - 2023 U.S. poll - demographics - U.S. Hispanic / Latinos - 2023 - high concern about climate crisis - U. S. African American - 2023 - high concern about climate change - U.S. Gen Z - 2023 - high concern about climate change

for - silver economy - stats - silver economy

stats - silver economy - 2024 - 7 trillion yuan ($982 billion USD) - 6 % GDP - 2035 - 30 trillion yuan ($4.2 trillion USD) - 10% GDP

question - silver economy - climate change impacts? transition impacts?

Das unabhängige britische Climate Change Committee hat seine Schlussfolgerungen enaus den Ergebnissen der Kopf 28 publiziert. Darin wird die britische Regierung zu einer deutlichen Beschleunigung der dekarbonisierung aufgefordert.Aaders sein die Verpflichtungen aus dem Pariser Abkommen nicht umzusetzen. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/30/uk-must-act-urgently-to-meet-climate-commitments-says-watchdog

Eine Studie enthält starke Hinweise darauf, dass die globale Erhitzung die Lebenserwartung weltweit schon um 6 Monate verkürzt hat. https://www.derstandard.de/story/3000000203417/neue-hinweise-zu-den-acht-zutaten-die-20-zusaetzliche-lebensjahre-bringen

Die EU hat 2023 durch die Verbrennung von fossilen Brennstoffen 8% weniger CO₂ emittiert als 2022. Damit liegen diese Emissionen wieder auf dem Niveau der 60er Jahre. Um die Klimaziele der EU zu erreichen, müssen die Emissionen noch schneller reduziert werden. Das European Advisory Board on Climate Change hat dazu in der vergangenen Woche eine Reihe von Vorschlägen gemacht. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/24/eu-fossil-fuel-co2-emissions-hit-60-year-low

2023 war in Großbritannien das zweitwärmste Jahr der Aufzeichnungsgeschichte. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/02/climate-crisis-2023-was-uks-second-hottest-on-record

Zwei der Reports, die zum Weltwirtschaftsforum 2024 publiziert wurden, betonen die Bedeutung von Risiken, die mit der globalen Erhitzung, der Zerstörung der Biodiversität und der lebenserhaltenden Systeme des Planeten verbunden sind. Der Artikel der Repubblica zählt klimapolitisch wichtige Ereignisse des Jahres 2024 auf.https://www.repubblica.it/green-and-blue/2024/01/17/news/world_economic_forum_2024_cambiamento_climatico-421899576/

for - resource - climate change performance index - how well a city is adapted to the climate crisis

https://www.repubblica.it/green-and-blue/2024/01/16/news/davos_world_economic_forum_cambiamenti_climatici_morti-421887165/

Überblicksartikel über klimapolitische Fort- und Rückschritte 2023, besonders zu Großbritannien, Schweden, den Niederlanden und China. Ausführlich wird auf Maßnahmen der britischen und schwedischen Regierung eingegangen, die die bisherige konsequente Klimapolitik deutlich verwässern. https://www.derstandard.de/story/3000000188940/war-2023-ein-jahr-der-klimapolitischen-rueckschritte

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/sep/22/rishi-sunak-urged-to-stop-attacking-climate-change-committee

Das britische Climate Change Commitee hat seit 18 Monaten keinen Chair. Die Nichtbesetzung dieser Stelle durch die Regierung gilt ein Signal dafür, dass sie sich zunehmend von den Dekarbonisierungszielen der konservativen Vorgängerregierungen entfernt. Fachleute, darunter Nicolas Stern, kritisieren die Verzögerung. Das Komitee legt unter anderem die britischenTreibhausgas-budgets fest und hatte in der Vergangenheit die zu langsame Politik der Regierung wiederholt deutlich kritisiert.https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/30/sunak-under-fire-failure-appoint-climate-committee-chief

• for: James Hansen - 2023 paper, key insight - James Hansen, leverage point - emergence of new 3rd political party, leverage point - youth in politics, climate change - politics, climate crisis - politics

• Key insight: James Hansen

  • The key insight James Hansen conveys is that
    • the key to rapid system change is
      • WHAT? the rapid emergence of a new, third political party that does not take money from special interest lobbys.
      • WHY? Hit the Achilles heel of the Fossil Fuel industry
      • HOW? widespread citizen / youth campaign to elect new youth leaders across the US and around the globe
      • WHEN? Timing is critical. In the US,
        • Don't spoil the vote for the two party system in 2024 elections. Better to have a democracy than a dictatorship.
        • Realistically, likely have to wait to be a contender in the 2028 election.

• reference

  • paper - Global Warming in the Pipeline
    • https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Facademic.oup.com%2Foocc%2Farticle%2F3%2F1%2Fkgad008%2F7335889&group=world
  • Michael Mann's critique of the paper
    • https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmichaelmann.net%2Fcontent%2Fcomments-new-article-james-hansen&group=world

• for: key insight- polycrisis - climate crisis - political crisis, climate crisis - requires a new political party, money in politics, climate crisis - fossil fuel lobbyists, climate change - politics, climate crisis - politics, James Hansen - key insight - political action - 3rd party

• key insight

  • Both democrats and conservatives are captured by fossil fuel lobbyist interests
  • A new third political party that does not take money from special interests is required
  • The nature of the polycrisis is that crisis are entangled . This is a case in point. The climate crisis cannot be solved unless the political crisis of money influencing politics is resolved
  • The system needs to be rapidly reformed to kick money of special interest groups out of politics.

• question

  • Given the short timescale, the earliest we can achieve this is 2028 in the US Election cycle
  • Meanwhile what can we do in between?
  • How much impact can alternative forms of local governance like https://sonec.org/ have?
  • In particular, could citizens form local alternative forms of governance and implement incentives to drive sustainable behavior?

• for: climate crisis - multiple dimensions, polycrisis - multiple dimensions, climate crisis - good references, polycrisis - good references, polycrisis - comprehensive map, power to the people, climate change - politics, climate crisis - politics

• comment / summary

  • The content on this website may be what some call "doomers" that support a narrative of unavoidable catastrophe and civilization collapse
  • The author does an excellent job of drawing together many scientifically validated research papers and news media stories on various crisis and integrates them together to support his narrative.
  • As the author states, it is still incomplete but it is comprehensive and detailed enough to use as a starting foundation to build a complex polycrisis map upon. becaues it shows the complexities of the interwoven nexus of problems we face and the massive network of feedbacks between them that makes solving any one of them alone in isolation an impossibility
  • The Cascade Institute focuses on social tipping points, complexity and polycrisis. We could synthesis a number of tools to map out and reveal effective mitigation strategies including:
    • Cascade Institute tools
    • Social tipping point tools
    • SRG mapping tool along with Indyweb / Indranet
    • Culture hacking tools
    • SIMPOL strategy
    • Downscaled Earth System Boundary tools
    • SRG Deep Humanity BEing journey tools
    • James Hansen's recommendation that the biggest leverage point is new form of governance
      • We need to rapidly emerge a new global third political party that does not take money from special interest groups
    • Progressive International comes to the same conclusion as James Hansen, that the key leverage point for rapid whole system change is radically new governance that puts power back to the hands of the people - power to the people
      • https://hyp.is/N0bxsJaaEe6Nmp_cqQcA7Q/docdrop.org/video/3dxLs-zX5xA/
    • SONEC's
    • Indyweb's people-centered, interpersonal methodology is a perfect match for SONEC circle-within-circles fractal structure
      • mention to @Gyuri
      • I've seen this circle-within-circle fractal, holonic group idea with Tim's software as well as Roberto's
  • Feebate from local governance groups (from another Doomer site - Arctic Emergency)
    • https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feebates.html
  • What the author's narrative shows is
    • how precarious our situation is
    • how many trends are getting far worse in the immediate future
    • how we are already undercapacitated to deal with existing crisis so how will we deal with new ones that are exponentially worse?
    • all these crisis will impact our supply chains. Why are these important? Our reliance on technology is dangerous and makes us very vulnerable
    • Think of your laptop, cellphone or other electronic device that relies on a vast, complex and globally operational internet. Imagine that tidal surges wipes out the globally critical data centers located in New York. Or imagine electronic factories in China and Taiwan are wiped out due to extreme weather. How will you get or fix a broken piece of electronic equipment? We rely on each millions of specialized jobs all working smoothly in order for our laptop to continue working and communicating with each other.

• epiphany

• recommendation for new Indyweb / Indranet tools
  • independent time and date stamp tool for every online, virtual sentence we write so we recognize in a long composition when we inserted a new idea
  • ability to trace rapid trains of thought to reveal how new insights emerge from within our consciousness
• While writing this, I just recalled that we should have a way to time and date stamp every single virtual online action, like in this annotation because recall happens so nonlinearly and we won't have a hope to trace and trailmark without it. Hypothesis doesn't have time and date stamps of every sentence available to the user. So we don't know what nonlinear memory recall led to a specific sentence in an annotation. We need some independent Indyweb / Indranet tool that will do this universally. Trains of thoughts are so fragile we can forget the quick cascades very easily.

• for: James Hansen, paper - Global Warming in the Pipeline, prediction - May 2024, find - May 2024 prediction, suggestion - debate - James Hansen - Michael Mann, climate crisis - politics, climate change - politics

• Summary

  • See the Dan Miller interview in the reference below
  • The key point for SRG work in mobilizing and awakening the sleeping giant of the commons is summarized in the 3rd required action in the last sentence of his abstract:
    • "Current political crises present an opportunity for RESET, especially if young people can grasp their situation." (Bold is from SRG)

• reference

  • James Hansen Dec. 2023 interview discussing this paper
    • https://hyp.is/go?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdocdrop.org%2Fvideo%2F8Ag3UVSrlhE%2F&group=world
    • Dan Miller, who interviews Hansen and who has coauthored a paper with him, states in the interview that May 2024 is a test date for validating the paper's claims:
    • https://hyp.is/HRKEfqYAEe6lGJ_E57_9Mw/docdrop.org/video/8Ag3UVSrlhE/
    • Find
      • Identify the section in the paper that Miller is alluding to which makes the prediction about events of May 2024.
  • Michael Mann's critique of the paper
    • https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmichaelmann.net%2Fcontent%2Fcomments-new-article-james-hansen&group=world

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/27/climate/horn-of-africa-somalia-drought.html

Studie: https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/human-induced-climate-change-increased-drought-severity-in-southern-horn-of-africa/

• for: Steven Pinker - critique - climate change - Enlightenment Now

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/live/2023/dec/12/cop-28-live-latest-updates-climate-conference?page=with:block-6578043a8f08daf1a2a76792#block-6578043a8f08daf1a2a76792

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/17/un-climate-summit-host-uae-failed-report-methane-emissions

• for: futures, futures - climate change
• annotate

• for: Nationally Determined Contributions insufficient to meet 1.5 Deg C, NDC insufficient to meet 1.5 Deg C

• stats: climate change - NDC

  • current NDCs
    • 45% reduction in fossil fuel usage by 2050
  • NDCs to meet 1.5 Deg C
    • 75% reduction in fossil fuel usage by 2050

• for: climate change - wartime mobilization inventory

Hitzebedingte Todesfälle bei über 65-Jährigen haben seit den 90ern um 85% zugenommen. Senior:innen sind – wie kleine Kinder – zweimal soviel Hitzewellen-Tagen ausgesetzt wie 1986-2005. Extreme Hitze führte 2022 zu Produktivitätsverlusten von ca. 863 Milliarden USD. Alle Indikatoren für öffentliche Gesundheit haben sich in den letzten 9 Jahren verschlechtert. – Die NYT stellt den 2023 Report des Lancet Countdown ausführlich dar. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/14/climate/climate-change-health-effects-lancet.html

Mehr zum Rreport: https://hypothes.is/search?q=tag%3A%222023%20report%20of%20the%20Lancet%20Countdown%20on%20health%20and%20climate%20change%22

Kurz vor der COP28 hat das Lancet-Countdown-Team seinen jährlichen Bericht über Gesundheit und Klimawandel vorgelegt. Die globale Erhitzung habe im vergangenen Jahr für 127 Millionen mehr Menschen zu leichter bis schwerer Nahrungsmittelunsicherheit geführt. In vielen Gebieten hätte die Klimaveränderung die Ausbreitung neuer Krankheiten begünstigt. Durch die anhaltenden Investitionen in fossile Energien bewege sich die Welt in die falsche Richtung https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/nov/14/paying-in-lives-health-of-billions-at-risk-from-global-heating-warns-report

• for: resilient cities, living cities, IPCC - cities, future earth - cities, complexity - cities, climate change - clities, Xuemei Bai - IPCC cities report

• for: big oil cover up, big oil - MIT, big Oil Ernest Moniz, methane emissions coverup, PBS - The Power of Big Oil, climate change - big oil lobby, quote - Ernest Moniz, quote Edmund Carlevale, quote - methane emissions coverup

• quote

  • Today, the U.S. is spending hundreds of millions to address the crisis of methane emissions. But as Tony Ingraffea says, this should have happened a decade ago (https://lnkd.in/eaFpkTrj) and it didn't because of a single person.
  • And none of this is in the past. Ernest Moniz is the single person in the entire world most responsible for legitimizing the hoax of #carboncapture.
  • And carbon capture is only reason that the global oil&gas cartel has been given a green light to #drilldrilldrill. -These lies matter, and they are devastating our world.
• author: Edmund Carlevale

• date: Nov 16, 2023

• reference

  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAAbcNl4Lb8

• for: explainer video - system change, not climate change, Weall, Wellbeing Economy Alliance

haha, china and russia and friends are shitting all over your "scientific models".<br /> the ONLY problem is "too many humans", aka overpopulation, caused by pacifism.<br /> these "save the world" policies are collective suicide for the 95% useless eaters. byee!

In einem Brief wollen mehr als 100 britische Energieunternehmen Premierminister Rishi Sunak warnen von der aktuellen Dekarbonisierungspolitik abzugehen. Gerade erst hat ein Gutachten gezeigt, mit welchen Gefahren die zu große Abhängigkeit Großbritanniens von gaslieferungen verbunden ist. Für das net sirocil sind diesen Bericht zufolge 327 Milliarden Pfund Investitionen nötig Punkt bisher haben sich die Regierung aber nur zu gut 22,5 Milliarden Pfund verpflichtet. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/16/top-uk-energy-firms-to-warn-rishi-sunak-dont-back-off-green-agenda

Net Zero-Bericht von Chris Skidmore: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/review-of-net-zero

Report des Office for Budget Stability: https://obr.uk/frs/fiscal-risks-and-sustainability-july-2023/#:~:text=In%20this%2C%20our%20second%20FRS,on%20the%20UK's%20public%20debt.

Das britische Climate Change Committee empfiehlt dem Land, den Energy Charter-Vertrag zu verlassen, so wie es die meisten Industrieländer bereits beschlossen haben. Die vorgeschlagenen Reformen gingen nicht weit genug und würden Öl- und Gasprojekte weitere 10 Jahre schützen.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/10/uk-should-quit-energy-charter-treaty-climate-change-committee

Kurz vor der COP28 kam es zu einer grundsätzlichen Einigung über die Umsetzung des Loss-and-damage-Fonds, der auf der letzten COP beschlossen worden war. Er wird zunächst von der Weltbank verwaltet werden. Die Höhe der Einzahlungen ist noch nicht klar. Aktivist:innen reagierten enttäuscht. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/05/countries-agree-key-measures-to-fund-most-vulnerable-to-climate-breakdown

• for: progress trap, progress trap - climate change - zombie virus

• faustian bargain
• link of aerosols in atmosphere to temporary cooling

see graph

• for: climate change - individual change, producer-consumer entanglement, big oil, COP28

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles

Durch die ausgedehnten Waldbrände haben die brandbedingten Treibhausgasemissionen in Kanada 2023 mit 410 Megatonnen ein Allzeithoch erreicht. Der zweithöchste Wert waren 138 Megatonnen 2014. Besonders hoch waren die Emissionen durch Waldbrände auch in Griechenland, Spanien und Portugal. Die Werte werden vom EU-Programm Copernicus erhoben. https://www.repubblica.it/green-and-blue/2023/09/14/news/incendi_copernicus_emissioni_co2_2023_record_canada-414437862/

Copernicus-Bericht: https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/copernicus-record-breaking-wildfires-throughout-2023-boreal-wildfire-season

• for: example - animal-plant communication, bee-flower communication, bee - primrose flower communication, communication - animal - plant, communication - bee - flower, 2019 University of Tel Aviv study, education, education - climate change, education - climate departure, education - species extinction

• for: communication - plants, education, education - climate change, education - climate departure, education - species extinction
• question: climate change education, climate departure education

• for: climate change - false binary, jobs vs environment, example, example climate change - false binary, climate departure, leverage point

• example: false environmental binary

  • activists need to better communicate the false binary that climate denialists keep using to pull the wool over people's eyes.
  • jobs vs environment ignores the short term threat of environmental degradation
  • this is where participatory climate departure can show the threat in a visceral, concrete way that is far more compelling you the average person than any intellectual attempt to explain the differences example - climate change - false binary

ongoing rise in transporation emissions in developing countries.

• comment
  • Johan Rockstrom does not believe that a Marshall plan is feasible. He cites the rapid pace of development in India and China as a reason a Marshall plan would not work.
  • To unpack this further, China and India were both countries on the other side of (white) colonialism and now are trying to catch up. Whereas historical, white colonialism marginalized both non-white, indigenous populations as well as nature, now these countries are marginalizing nature.
  • To determine whether a Marshall plan by these large emitting countries would be feasible or not depends on the answer to another question:
    • Can these countries pivot to a Marshall plan of a disruptive rate of 15% ?
  • We must remember, as Kevin Anderson reminds us, it is uneven. Only a small minority of the population must undergo radical decarbonization rates, namely the small minority of high carbon, elite emitters.
  • What would a global Marshall plan even look like? We don't know - because the conversation is being discouraged. That's the point Kevin Anderson is making.

• for: quote, quote - Kevin Anderson, quote - Kevin Anderson - Marshall plan, discussion - Johan Rockstrom / Kevin Anderson, perspectival knowing

• quote

  • Our choice to fail over the last 30 years has brought us to this position.
  • And a way out of that, a way out of the Marshall Plan, is to say we can have these negative emissions
  • I think we need to say that, okay that's one way out of it – if they work.
  • Another way out of it is the Marshall Plan.
  • And so we need to open that that dialogue up. but we've... in effect, I think the IAMs have closed that dialogue,.
  • Which is one of the reasons, going back to... It would be interesting to see other parts of the world looking at this, because, I would have a guess,
    • when we say 'that's not feasible', many people elsewhere in the world are saying 'well of course it's feasible, we've been doing... we've been living like that for years!'

• comment

  • In rebuttal to Johan's perspective on Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs),
    • Kevin is addressing the issue of perspectival knowing, and
    • its implications on what solutions we entertain as a global society.
  • The example he cites is Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) illustrates two major perspectives:
    • Johan includes NETs as he see's that without them, the transition goes from manageable to unmanageable
    • Kevin questions the inclusion of the NETs as potentially shutting down discussion about what Johan would consider an unmanageable situation
  • Kevin brings up a valid point for inclusion of other voices, especially those indigenous ones who are still institutionally marginalized not only in economic and cultural spaces, but also academic and intellectual ones.
  • The decolonization of academia takes on a concrete form here. Both the global and local south have lived under severe economic repression for centuries. Anderson's contention is that making do with less is something that billions of people have had to contend with for centuries as a social norm forced upon them by colonialist then post colonialist institutions.
  • Inclusivity of a greater diversity of voices does play an important role in shaping the future direction of humanity.
  • We should be having an open discussion about a Marshall plan and should not be afraid to go there.
    • We had it in WWII, which, while more direct threat, is not as great as the threat of climate change on all life on earth in a slightly greater time scale.
  • The global and local south has a lot to teach the global and local north. For this great transition of humanity to occur likely simultaneously requires
    • radical amounts of resource transfer from the global / local north to the global / local south,and
    • radical degrowth

• for: leverage points, quote, quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - motivating the silent majority, climate change - priority, social tipping point
• quote
  • In a normal distribution,
    • from over here you have the denialists and
    • over here you have the environmental activists.
  • But in between you have a lot of different types of people.
  • And the majority are actually
    • we know this from opinion polls
  • very supportive of science.
  • They're very supportive of and concerned about climate change.
  • They want climate action.
  • It's just that they live their normal lives, they have many preoccupations in life.They have
    • children,
    • health,
    • school,
    • financing,
    • incomes.
  • You know, many, many things to be worried about.
  • But that's the question:
    • how do we get this majority, the silent majority, to join us?
  • I don't think that the way to make them join us is to
    • scare them and
    • fight with the denialists.
  • I think the way to make them join is to show that this pathway can get a better life.
• author: Johan Rockstrom

• date: Sept., 2023

• comment

  • in other words
  • the silent majority does not yet hold climate change activism to be sufficiently high on their list of priorities yet to warrant the necessary scale of action

Eine Koalition kleiner Inselstaaten hat beim internationalen Seegerichtshof eine Aussage zur Belastung der Ozeane durch Treibhausgase beantragt. Wenn diese als Verschmutzung im Sinne des Seerechts anerkannt wird, lassen sich damit Klagen gegen die Industriestaaten auf Einschreiten gegen die globale Erhitzung begründen. https://www.liberation.fr/environnement/pollution/des-etats-insulaires-intentent-une-action-en-justice-pour-proteger-les-oceans-20230911_ATZV3N2EAZCMXEWEKUZ32ACL4Q/