LAUNCH OF POLICY BRIEF ON FOOD SECURITY

"We need to act now to avoid the worst impacts of our efforts to control the pandemic"

Threats to psychology’s credibility: Replicability, generalizability, and measurement validity

To create social good, psychology needs credible evidence

Malicious and abusive behaviors on social media have elicited massive concerns for the negative repercussions that online activity can have on personal and collective life. The spread of false information, the rise of AI-manipulated multimedia, and the emergence of various forms of harmful content are just a few of the several perils that social media users can, even unconsciously, encounter in the online ecosystem. In times of crisis, these issues can only get more pressing, with increased threats for everyday social media users. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic makes no exception and, due to dramatically increased information needs, represents the ideal setting for the spread of a multitude of low-credibility and unverified information, and for malicious actors aiming to take advantage of the resulting chaos. In such a high-stakes scenario, the downstream effects of misinformation exposure or information landscape manipulation can manifest in attitudes and behaviors with potentially serious public health consequences.

Call for Papers on "Misinformation, Manipulation and Abuse on Social Media in the Era of COVID-19"

RT @enenbee: There are now over 14,000 COVID-19 citations indexed by Pubmed. That's bananas. Use with caution...

Coronavirus antibody studies and what they allegedly show have triggered fierce debates, further confusing public understanding. ProPublica’s health reporter Caroline Chen is here to offer some clarity around these crucial surveys.

What Antibody Studies Can Tell You — and More Importantly, What They Can’t

The word “airborne” means different things to different scientists, and that confusion needs to be addressed.

They Say Coronavirus Isn't Airborne—but It's Definitely Borne By Air

Coronavirus Pummels Wuhan, a City Short of Supplies and Overwhelmed

It is nearly impossible to get the care they need to treat, or even diagnose, the coronavirus, say residents at the crisis’ center.

In California, two of the nation’s first big antibody surveys estimated that the true number of coronavirus infections is significantly higher than believed. But scientists are skeptical.

Two Antibody Studies Say Coronavirus Infections Are More Common Than We Think. Scientists Are Mad.

For a couple of weeks now, grocery stores have been one of the only respites from cabin fever. Despite all the lockdowns and social-distancing measures across America, people still need food. In the most restrictive states, the grocery store has become about the last place you can go where life is lived more or less as it previously was.Except now, not even grocery stores can keep up the facade of normalcy. As many health experts have feared, last week, reports began to trickle in of grocery-store workers coming down with COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.

Grocery Stores Are the Coronavirus Tipping Point

The Trump administration has just released the model for the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in America. We can expect a lot of back-and-forth about whether its mortality estimates are too high or low. And its wide range of possible outcomes is certainly confusing: What’s the right number? The answer is both difficult and simple. Here’s the difficult part: There is no right answer. But here’s the simple part: Right answers are not what epidemiological models are for.

Don’t Believe the COVID-19 Models

If there is a way to stop COVID-19, it will be by blocking its proteins from hijacking, suppressing, and evading humans’ cellular machinery.

The Best Hopes for a Coronavirus Drug

Over the next few months, you are going to see many different predictions about COVID-19 outcomes. They won’t all agree. But just because they’re based on assumptions doesn’t mean they’re worthless. “All models are wrong, it’s striving to make them less wrong and useful in the moment,” Weir said. We’re hungry, so somebody has to do some baking. But be sure to ask what ingredients went into that pie and in what quantities.

Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model 

STAT asked Redfield about the agency’s role, whether he was satisfied with it, the agency’s evolving thinking about whether people should wear cloth masks in public, and how he sees the pandemic unfolding. The conversation has been lightly edited for length and clarity.

An interview with the CDC director on coronavirus, masks, and an agency gone quiet

Lockdowns and distancing won’t save the world from warming. But amid this crisis, we have a chance to build a better future.

What the Coronavirus Means for Climate Change

A Covid diary: This is what I saw as the pandemic engulfed our hospitals.

I’m an E.R. Doctor in New York. None of Us Will Ever Be the Same.

The disease’s “long-haulers” have endured relentless waves of debilitating symptoms—and disbelief from doctors and friends.

COVID-19 Can Last for Several Months

The pandemic has also wrecked the publicity campaigns of many great books that should find their audiences, but might not. I've mentioned Olga Khazan's WEIRD further up: (https://indiebound.org/book/9780316418485…) Let me recommend some others. (These aren't pandemic-related but they ARE great.)

Speaking of podcasts, you must listen to @roseveleth's Flash Forward. There's a pandemic episode, and I linked to the Y2K one in my recent piece. Her call to imagine better futures, and her commitment to inclusivity, are more important than ever.

.@maddie_sofia is the force of nature behind Short Wave, NPR’s wonderful daily science podcast. Loads of great pandemic coverage, interleaved with much-needed lighter palate-cleansers. Shout-out also to @emilykwong1234 & the whole Short Wave team.

And to add her to the main thread: someone asked me if I knew good economics writers who are covering the pandemic and, yes, I do! @AnnieLowrey is consistently excellent. I learn a ton from her work.

You might not think a space reporter would easily pivot to pandemic coverage but I will tell you a truth I’ve learned over the last years: @marinakoren can (and often will!) report on *anything* and it’ll be great.

Here's two great explainers on antibody testing--one by @apoorva_nyc and one by @CarolineYLChen. Both of them are consistently superb; read everything and anything they write.

.@rkhamsi has done some great work throughout the pandemic, inc. an early and very prescient piece on false comparisons to the flu. The one below was, I think, the first major piece to tackle the "airborne" question and holds up 2 months later.

.@amyyqin's early dispatches from Wuhan were my real "oh shit!" moments during the first months of the pandemic. Her work continues to illuminate.

This @stephaniemlee piece on the Santa Clara serology study is a textbook example of responsibly reporting on complicated and controversial new research. Stephanie is always great, as is the entire Buzzfeed science desk.

I could say the same of @olgakhazan, who's a reporting *machine*. So. Much. Good. Work. This grocery store piece has stuck with me. (Also check out her new book: https://hachettebooks.com/titles/olga-khazan/weird/9781549115127/…)

.@amandamull is so so good at unpacking the weird details of modern society, and zooming up and down from broad systems to everyday life. This piece on Georgia is awesome, but just always read her.

.@zeynep is a formidable thinker and has written so many pieces that have shaped how I've thought about the pandemic. This one on what models mean is great; so are all the rest.

@lizneeley's piece on how to talk about the coronavirus draws on her very deep knowledge of the science of science communication. It's a north star for all the difficult conversations ahead.

.@sarahzhang is one of the most formidable science writers working today. This story on the various options for creating an anti-covid drug is great, and just read all her stories on treatments and antibody testing.

.@maggiekb1 is the god of the "this ostensibly simple thing is way more complicated than you think, but let me walk you through it" explainer. Here she is on why it's so hard to build a good COVID-19 model.

Are any reporters on the infectious disease beat more respected than @helenbranswell? I doubt it. Her interview with CDC director Robert Redfield still lingers in the mind, but just read anything she writes.

There are few people I would've trusted to do a big piece on coronavirus and climate change. @meehancrist is on the top of a short list, and she utterly delivers here. Thoughtful, sweeping, forward-looking.

I keep thinking about this haunting first-person account from @DrHelenOuyang of how the pandemic swept through NY hospitals, juxtaposed against similar experiences in Lombardy. It's an *incredible* feat of writing.

Hello! A lot of you have started following me in the last couple of months, so let me introduce you to some people I respect, who've created some of the pandemic writing that's really stuck with me.

Physicians are perfectionists who suffer in silence.

What One Doctor’s Suicide Taught Us

A Stanford whistleblower complaint alleges that the controversial John Ioannidis study failed to disclose important financial ties and ignored scientists’ concerns that their antibody test was inaccurate.

JetBlue’s Founder Helped Fund A Stanford Study That Said The Coronavirus Wasn’t That Deadly

Nationwide forced isolation, along with media coverage of the pandemic’s toll in U.S. jails and prisons, could shift public perceptions of carceral punishment.

Quarantine Could Change How Americans Think of Incarceration

So far, all available evidence suggests that few Americans were infected in the first weeks of the year. It would be next to impossible to find out who they were.

You’ll Probably Never Know If You Had the Coronavirus in January

10.1038/d41586-020-01312-w

The pandemic’s disruption shows how much academia could learn from the disability community.

Let COVID-19 expand awareness of disability tech

The mental toll of intensive care can be more severe than the physical one.

‘ICU Delirium’ Is Leaving COVID-19 Patients Scared and Confused

By now you’ve probably heard about or even seen the video “Plandemic” that’s been spreading like wildfire through social media networks. This article is not the one you should give to your friend or relative or coworker who shared the video. (If you want that article, you won’t find a better one than this one from Beth Skwarecki at Lifehacker: “If You Found That ‘Plandemic’ Video Convincing, Read This Too.”) This is an article for those who recognized the video as rife with conspiracy theories, misinformation and false claims, those who are frustrated and unsettled and disappointed in who they see sharing it, and those who want to know what to say when they see it. It explains why the video is successful, how to recognize propaganda like this for what it is, and explain why it is so, so, so important to speak up about this particular video.

Why It’s Important To Push Back On ‘Plandemic’—And How To Do It

Want to know why wild conspiracism can be so irresistible? Ask a 14-year-old girl.

I Was a Teenage Conspiracy Theorist

Even after big parties are safe, smaller, intimate ceremonies are likely to persist.

The Pandemic’s Long-Lasting Effects on Weddings

The coronavirus pandemic has brought disproportionate suffering to Black communities, but it doesn’t have to continue that way.

It’s Not Too Late to Save Black Lives

Instead of an all-or-nothing approach to risk prevention, Americans need a manual on how to have a life in a pandemic.

Quarantine Fatigue Is Real

When I think of a collective sense of grief, I think of how easily I became distant from my mother’s family, including my uncle, during those months and years after her death. As we all mourned, I watched us retreat into ourselves.

Time Is of the Essence

Ahem. HERE is @JenSeniorNY’s poignant, sensitive, and thoughtful piece about an NY doctor’s suicide and what that says about what we expect from the medical profession. (Reposting because I mangled the link upthread)

There's so much. I get asked to do a lot of interviews and talks and I try to punt opportunities out to colleagues when I can, but producers, you'd be so lucky to bag any of these amazing people (and the ones in the previous thread) for your shows, podcasts, & seminars. /fin

And of course the people I tagged in the first thread have continued producing incredible work. A sampling:

Prisons are perhaps the single most important hotspot of COVID-19 in the US and this @ethiopienne's piece is a thoughtful and invaluable look at what that means and how to think about it.

A lot of people in the US are wondering if they got the coronavirus in January. @rachgutman answers that question in a thoroughly reported piece that instead of shooting for easy answers, does the much harder task of delineating uncertainty.

I spoke to @ashleyshoo about how the disability community is experiencing the pandemic. Her own op/ed is essential. There is a lot of wisdom here.

.@JenSeniorNY's piece on a NY doctor's suicide, and what it says about what the medical profession goes through, is astonishing. This is SUCH a hard subject to write about well, and Jen utterly pulls it off. I hope this piece saves lives.

.@MarionRenault's piece on ICU delirium was an eye-opener for me. It's fascinating and important. This is what journalism should do: clearly and empathetically illuminate a problem that deserves more attention.

Speaking of which, @tarahaelle's piece on how to understand and respond to the Pl*ndemic video is spot-on, informed by the evidence base on communication.

.@ellencushing's extraordinary essay about her past as a teenage conspiracy theorist is not specifically about the pandemic but is HIGHLY relevant, and a crucial insight into the mindset that will likely become increasingly common.

@AshleyFetters's piece on how the pandemic is shaking up the wedding industry is perfectly observed, as are all of Ashley's pieces on how relationships and families are being affected. (Editors! Hire or commission Ashley! https://twitter.com/AshleyFetters/status/1263511204368130048…)

Of the many pieces written about how COVID-19 is exacerbating health inequalities, I found @juliacraven's to be exceptional, combining the stories of two women against a sweeping look at centuries-old problems.

As we begin to re-emerge into an uncertain world, I found @JuliaLMarcus's piece on quarantine fatigue to be a compassionate, sensible, and much-needed guide to navigating risk.

This @katchow piece about the loss of her uncle is eulogy and memoir, beautiful and heartbreaking, and a necessary reminder that, as Kat writes, "Time is of the essence."

Hello! More of you have started following me in the last weeks since I last did this, so let me introduce you to YET MORE people I respect, who've created some pandemic writing that's really stuck with me. (And do check out the original thread below.)

Despite anticipating an immediate and substantial drop in clinic visits during the lockdown period, the authors report there was no overall reduction in the number of adult visits per clinic per day during Level 5 of lockdown.

In uMkhanyakude, visits for perinatal care & family planning remained consistent after lockdown & HIV care visits briefly increased just after lockdown. Vaccination & growth monitoring visits for children dropped by 50% just after lockdown, with slow return to near normal.

New work from AHRI about the effect of the Level 5 #Covid19SA lockdown on access to healthcare has found a largely resilient primary healthcare system in rural KZN among adults, but some early warning signs for child health.

10.1101/2020.05.15.20103226

Objectives Public health interventions designed to interrupt COVID-19 transmission could have deleterious impacts on primary healthcare access. We sought to identify whether implementation of the nationwide lockdown (shelter-in-place) order in South Africa affected ambulatory clinic visitation in rural Kwa-Zulu Natal (KZN). Design Prospective, longitudinal cohort study Setting Data were analyzed from the Africa Health Research Institute Health and Demographic Surveillance System, which includes prospective data capture of clinic visits at eleven primary healthcare clinics in northern KwaZulu-Natal Participants A total of 36,291 individuals made 55,545 clinic visits during the observation period. Exposure of Interest We conducted an interrupted time series analysis with regression discontinuity methods to estimate changes in outpatient clinic visitation from 60 days before through 35 days after the lockdown period. Outcome Measures Daily clinic visitation at ambulatory clinics. In stratified analyses we assessed visitation for the following sub-categories: child health, perinatal care and family planning, HIV services, non-communicable diseases, and by age and sex strata. Results We found no change in total clinic visits/clinic/day from prior to and during the lockdown (-6.9 visits/clinic/day, 95%CI -17.4, 3.7) or trends in clinic visitation over time during the lockdown period (-0.2, 95%CI -3.4, 3.1). We did detect a reduction in child healthcare visits at the lockdown (-7.2 visits/clinic/day, 95%CI -9.2, -5.3), which was seen in both children <1 and children 1-5. In contrast, we found a significant increase in HIV visits immediately after the lockdown (8.4 visits/clinic/day, 95%CI 2.4, 14.4). No other differences in clinic visitation were found for perinatal care and family planning, non-communicable diseases, or among adult men and women. Conclusions In rural KZN, the ambulatory healthcare system was largely resilient during the national-wide lockdown order. A major exception was child healthcare visitation, which declined immediately after the lockdown but began to normalize in the weeks thereafter. Future work should explore efforts to decentralize chronic care for high-risk populations and whether catch-up vaccination programs might be required in the wake of these findings.

Access to primary healthcare during lockdown measures for COVID-19 in rural South Africa: a longitudinal cohort study

This week, Project Syndicate catches up with Lucrezia Reichlin, a former director of research at the European Central Bank.

Lucrezia ReichlinSays More…

2005.09721

Motifs are the fundamental components of complex systems. The topological structure of networks representing complex systems and the frequency and distribution of motifs in these networks are intertwined. The complexities associated with graph and subgraph isomorphism problems, as the core of frequent subgraph mining, have direct impacts on the performance of motif discovery algorithms. To cope with these complexities, researchers have adopted different strategies for candidate generation and enumeration, and frequency computation. In the past few years, there has been an increasing interest in the analysis and mining of temporal networks. These networks, in contrast to their static counterparts, change over time in the form of insertion, deletion, or substitution of edges or vertices or their attributes. In this paper, we provide a survey of motif discovery algorithms proposed in the literature for mining static and temporal networks and review the corresponding algorithms based on their adopted strategies for candidate generation and frequency computation. As we witness the generation of a large amount of network data in social media platforms, bioinformatics applications, and communication and transportation networks and the advance in distributed computing and big data technology, we also conduct a survey on the algorithms proposed to resolve the CPU-bound and I/O bound problems in mining static and temporal networks.

Motif Discovery Algorithms in Static and Temporal Networks: A Survey

10.31234/osf.io/ujns9

The current study examined anxiety and distress among members of the first community to be quarantined in the United States due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition to being historically significant, the current sample was unusual in that those quarantined were all members of a Modern Orthodox Jewish community and were connected via religious institutions at which exposure may have occurred. We sought to explore the community and religious factors unique to this sample, as they relate to the psychological and public health impact of quarantine. Community organizations were trusted more than any other source of COVID 19-related information, including federal, state, and other government agencies, including the CDC, WHO and media news sources. This was supported qualitatively with open-ended responses in which participants described the range of supports organized by community organizations. These included tangible needs (i.e. food delivery), social support, virtual religious services, and dissemination of COVID-19 related information. The overall levels of distress and anxiety were elevated and directly associated with what was reported to be largely inadequate and inconsistent health related information received from local departments of health. In addition, the majority of participants felt that perception of or concern about future stigma related to a COVID-19 diagnosis or association of COVID-19 with the Jewish community was high and also significantly predicted distress and anxiety. The current study demonstrates the ways in which religious institutions can play a vital role in promoting the well-being of their constituents. During this unprecedented pandemic, public health authorities have an opportunity to form partnerships with religious institutions in the common interests of promoting health, relaying accurate information and supporting the psychosocial needs of community members, as well as protecting communities against stigma and discrimination.

A look at the first quarantined community in the United States: Response of religious communal organizations and implications for public health during the COVID-19 pandemic

In the first part of this webinar, Nigel Nicholson will put what is happening today in the context of human evolution, as “just another unique species” responding to a huge environmental shock. While the consequences of shocks are often dire, they also open opportunities for new adaptive forms and patterns, and Nigel will discuss what kinds of changes will be immediate and potentially lasting. In the second part, Richard Jolly will focus on the challenges we face as individuals in adapting to this new world, and he will talk about some of the tactics we should pursue to build our personal resilience.