for - social tipping points - climate change

for - stats - Perato's law - social transformation - fascism, polarization and climate crisis - climate communication - 80% will change if we listen, 19% will require deeper conversations - 1% will not change - Roger Hallam

for - system change - social gatherings - adjacency - Deep Humanity - Tipping Point Festival - social gathering insights - community conherence

article details - title: Convenings, Cohorts + Communities: Notes on so-called "impact" gatherings - author: Renee Lertzman - publication: substack - date: 2024, Sept 24

for - social tipping point - 2023 paper - paper details

paper details - title: The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to majority - author - Jordan Everall - Jonathan. F Donges - Ilona. M. Otto - Preprint date - 20 Nov 2023 - Publication - EGUsphere Preprint Repository

summary - This is a recent 2023 paper that summarizes social tipping point research for fields of interest to me, such as climate change. - I'm reading, looking for any real world experimental validation of social tipping point in climate change - I didn't find any but still interesting

from - search - google - research on complex contagion refutes the 25% social tipping point threshold - https://www.google.com/search?q=research+on+complex+contagion+refutes+the+25%25+social+tipping+point+threshold&oq=research+on+complex+contagion+refutes+the+25%25+social+tipping+point+threshold&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIGCAEQRRhA0gEJMjAyOTRqMGo3qAIAsAIA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8 - search results returned of interest - The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to ... - https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2241/

for - social transition - rapid whole system change - cosmolocal - cosmo-local - anywheres - everywheres - commons - Michel Bauwens - P2P Foundation - somewheres - meme - glocalization - meme - cosmos-localization

summary - A good article introducing cosmo-localism as a logical vasilation of failed markets and states, swinging the pendulum back to the commons as a necessary precursor to rapid whole system change

• for: system change - where to start

• paraphrase

  • You don't start a feminist revolution by arguing with your dad. He might be the one who needs to change, but that doesn't mean that you start there.
  • You start by talking to each other. We need to come together. We need to have solidarity.
  • We need to have a common narrative and analysis and understanding of what's happening.
  • And I think a common understanding of pathways of change and we need that core nucleus of people who really are working for system change.
  • I think that's where we start. And hopefully, the narrative and the clarity that we can bring will be compelling enough that we will win more hearts and minds

• comment

  • cascading social tipping points

• for: social change, rapid whole system change, social change - micro Phenomenological interview

• for: IPCC - social behavioral change impact, quote, quote - IPCC social behavioral change

• quote

  • The forthcoming 6th IPCC report includes a chapter on demand-side mitigation solutions, which estimates that
  • sociobehavioral changes (on top of changes in infra- structure or technology) have the potential to reduce CO 2 emissions by 40% to 70% by 2050.

• for: superorganism, social superorganism, bottom-up movement,

• comment

  • this model of nested structures and the major evolutionary transition of individuality suggests a metaphor for the great transition of civilization:
    • apply SIMPOL to fragmented change agents around the globe and apply leverage points, idling resources and social tipping points to organize individuals at one scale to create a MET of individuality at another higher scale
    • this becomes the construction / evolution of a new individual
      • the social superorganism for rapid whole sysem change

• for: leverage points, quote, quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - motivating the silent majority, climate change - priority, social tipping point
• quote
  • In a normal distribution,
    • from over here you have the denialists and
    • over here you have the environmental activists.
  • But in between you have a lot of different types of people.
  • And the majority are actually
    • we know this from opinion polls
  • very supportive of science.
  • They're very supportive of and concerned about climate change.
  • They want climate action.
  • It's just that they live their normal lives, they have many preoccupations in life.They have
    • children,
    • health,
    • school,
    • financing,
    • incomes.
  • You know, many, many things to be worried about.
  • But that's the question:
    • how do we get this majority, the silent majority, to join us?
  • I don't think that the way to make them join us is to
    • scare them and
    • fight with the denialists.
  • I think the way to make them join is to show that this pathway can get a better life.
• author: Johan Rockstrom

• date: Sept., 2023

• comment

  • in other words
  • the silent majority does not yet hold climate change activism to be sufficiently high on their list of priorities yet to warrant the necessary scale of action

• for: societal design, designing societies, societal architecture, transforming society, whole system change, SSO, social superorganism, John Boik

The seven main ideas for societal design: 1. societal transformation - is necessary to avoid catastrophe 2. the specific type of transformation is science-based transformation based on entirely new systems - de novo design - 3. A practical way to implement the transformation in the real world - it must be economical, and doable within the short time window for system change before us. - Considering a time period of 50 years for total change, with some types of change at a much higher priority than others. - The change would be exponential so starting out slower, and accelerating - Those communities that are the first to participate would make the most rapid improvements. 4. Promoting a worldview of society as a social superorganism, a cognitive organism, and its societal systems as a cognitive architecture. 5. Knowing the intrinsic purpose of a society - each subsystem must be explained in terms of the overall intrinsic purpose. 6. The reason for transformation - Transformation that improves cognition reduces the uncertainty that our society's intrinsic purpose is fulfilled. 7. Forming a partnership between the global science community and all the local communities of the world.

• for: social tipping point, social tipping points, leverage point, leverage points, STP, 25% STP threshold

• title

  • Climate change can drive social tipping points – for better or for worse
• source
  • https://theconversation.com/climate-change-can-drive-social-tipping-points-for-better-or-for-worse-210641
• date
  • July 31, 2023
• author
  • Sonia Graham
• reference
  • https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/pan3.10516

• for: social tipping points, STP, social tipping point, leverage point, Sirkku Juhola

• title

  • Social tipping points and adaptation limits in the context of systemic risk: Concepts, models and governance
• authors
  • Sirkku Juhola
  • Tatiana Filatova
  • Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler
  • Reinhard Mechler
  • Jurgen Scheffran
  • Pia-Johanna Schweizer
• date
  • Sept 21, 2022

• abstract

  • Physical tipping points have gained a lot of attention in global and climate change research to understand the conditions for system transitions when it comes to the atmosphere and the biosphere.
  • Social tipping points have been framed as mechanisms in socio-environmental systems, where a small change in the underlying elements or behavior of actors triggers a large non-linear response in the social system.
  • With climate change becoming more acute, it is important to know whether and how societies can adapt.
  • While social tipping points related to climate change have been associated with positive or negative outcomes,
    • overstepping adaptation limits has been linked to adverse outcomes where actors' values and objectives are strongly compromised.
  • Currently, the evidence base is limited, and most of the discussion on social tipping points in climate change adaptation and risk research is conceptual or anecdotal.
  • This paper brings together three strands of literature -
    • social tipping points,
    • climate adaptation limits and
    • systemic risks,
  • which so far have been separate.
  • Furthermore, we discuss
    • methods and
    • models
  • used to illustrate the dynamics of
    • social and
    • adaptation tipping points
  • in the context of cascading risks at different scales beyond adaptation limits.
  • We end with suggesting that further evidence is needed to identify tipping points in social systems,
    • which is crucial for developing appropriate governance approaches.

• reference

  • https://www.rifs-potsdam.de/en/news/social-tipping-points-spotlight

• for: social tipping point, social tipping points, leverage point, STP

• reference

  • https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.frontiersin.org%2Farticles%2F10.3389%2Ffclim.2022.1009234&group=world

https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2023/2/2/donovan-forced-leave-hks/

This is a massive loss for HKS, but a potential major win for the school that picks the project up.

It seems to be a sad use of "rules" to shut down a project which may not jive with an administrations' perspective/needs.

Read on Fri 2023-02-03 at 7:14 PM

Public Annotation of IPCC Report AR6 Climate Change 2022 Mitigation of Climate Change WGIII Chapter 5: Demand, Services and Social Aspects of Mitigation

NOTE: Permission given by one of the lead authors, Felix Creutzig to annotate with caveat that there may be minor changes in the final version.

This annotation explores the potential of mass mobilization of citizens and the commons to effect dramatic demand side reductions. It leverages the potential agency of the public to play a critical role in rapid decarbonization.

IPCC AR6 WGIII Chapter 5: demand, services and social aspects of mitigation identifies that up to 45% of mitigation can result from a demand-side socialization strategy and collective action mobilization. This gives us tremendous power of impact to mobilize people. The low hanging fruit can be identified by comprehensive, ongoing, deep, global conversations with the greatest diversity of actors with a common vision collectively searching for the social tipping points, leverage points and idling resources and scaling massively thru the Indyweb as a cosmolocal network (what's light we share, what's heavy we produce locally).

Climate scientist and realist Professor Kevin Anderson has argued for many years that demand side changes are the only solutions that can be implemented rapidly enough to peak emissions and drop emissions rapidly in the short term (next few years), buying time for reneewable energy solutions to scale globally.

While the three index cards of Barthes that were reproduced in the 1977 edition of Roland Barthes by Roland Barthes may have been "primarily for reality-effect value as evidence of an expanding taste for historical documents" as argued by Hollier, it does indicate the value of the collection to Barthes himself as part of an autobiographical work.

I've noticed that one of the cards is very visibly about homosexuality in a time where public discussion of the term was still largely taboo. It would be interesting to have a full translation of the three cards to verify Hollier's claim, as at least this one does indicate the public consumption of the beginning of changing attitudes on previously taboo subject matter, even for a primarily English speaking audience which may not have been able to read or understand them, but would have at least been able to guess the topic.

At least some small subset of the general public might have grown up with an index-card-based note taking practice and guessed at what their value may have been though largely at that point index card note systems were generally on their way out.

Deepti Gurdasani. (2022, February 8). Exactly this 👇 We never talk about the huge benefits mitigations have had in reducing other respiratory illnesses... Which means deaths from other causes have reduced. Excess deaths are not a good indicator of COVID-19 deaths—Which we should be doing a lot more to prevent! [Tweet]. @dgurdasani1. https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1491123632349024256

The online information environment | Royal Society. (n.d.). Retrieved January 21, 2022, from https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/online-information-environment/

Reframing loss as gain is one strategy worth exploring for behavior change. Also explore social tipping points of complex contagion.

Beginning, Middle, End

Micah White wrote of the end: The End of Protest.

Micah White is the award-winning activist who co-created Occupy Wall Street, a global social movement, while an editor of Adbusters magazine.

Occupy Wall Street was a constructive failure but not a total failure. Occupy demonstrated the efficacy of using social memes to quickly spread a movement, shifted the political debate on the fair distribution of wealth, trained a new generation of activists who went on to be the base for movements ranging from campus fossil fuel divestment to Black Lives Matter protests. Occupy launched many local projects that will have lasting small-scale impact. Occupy buoyed many institutional activist organizations that were able to materially profit from the renewed interest in protest. All of these are signs that our movement was culturally influential. It may be comforting to believe that Occupy splintered into a thousand shards of light. However, an honest assessment reveals that Occupy Wall Street failed to live up to its revolutionary potential: we did not bring an end to the influence of money on democracy, overthrow the corporatocracy of the 1 percent or solve income inequality. If our movement did achieve successes, they were not the ones we’d intended. When victory eluded Occupy, a world of activist certainties fell apart.

I call Occupy Wall Street a constructive failure because the movement revealed underlying flaws in dominant, and still prevalent, theories of how to achieve social change through collective action. Occupy set out to “get money out of politics,” and we succeeded in catalyzing a global social movement that tested all of our hypotheses. The failure of our efforts reveals a truth that will hasten the next successful revolution: the assumptions underlying contemporary protest are false. Change won’t happen through the old models of activism. Western democracies will not be swayed by public spectacles and mast frenzy. Protests have become an accepted, and therefore ignored, by-product of politics-as-usual. Western governments are not susceptible to international pressure to heed the protests of their citizens. Occupy’s failure was constructive because it demonstrated the limitations of contemporary ideas of Protest. I capitalize p to emphasize that the limitation was not in a particular tactic but ratter in our concept of Protest, or our theory of social change, which determined the overall script. Occupy revealed that activists need to revolutionize their approach to revolution.

Failure can be liberating. Defeat detaches us from a theory of revolution that is no longer effective, reopening the possibility of true change. “For a revolutionary,” writes Régis Debray, professor of philosophy and associate of Che Guevara, “failure is a springboard. As a course of theory it is richer than victory: it accumulates experience and knowledge.”

(Pages 26-27)

A Theory of Change

How did we get here?

Yesterday (October 26, 2021), I picked up David Graeber’s book, The Dawn of Everything: a New History of Humanity, written with David Wengrow, at Coles in Abbotsford.

It is interesting to note that David Graeber was interested in the origins, the beginnings.

Renowned for his biting and incisive writing about bureaucracy, politics and capitalism, Graeber was a leading figure in the Occupy Wall Street movement and professor of anthropology at the London School of Economics (LSE) at the time of his death.

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2020/sep/03/david-graeber-anthropologist-and-author-of-bullshit-jobs-dies-aged-59

UCL Centre for Behaviour Change. (2021, October 12). The CBC Conference 2021 programme has just been released and is packed with thought-provoking talks, international keynote speakers, symposia, and plenty of networking opportunities and social exchanges for delegates. Register now! Http://tinyurl.com/5xwa7c27 #cbcconf2021 https://t.co/9iZqPjEEY6 [Tweet]. @UCLBehaveChange. https://twitter.com/UCLBehaveChange/status/1447860878511157252

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The mechanisms of our compliance with the dominant system are designed into the system:

• Social: learned helplessness (individuality)
• Economic: trained incapacities (specialization)
• Political: bureaucratic intransigence (authoritarianism)

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