18 Matching Annotations
  1. May 2019
    1. this means that you are more likely to be struck by lightning in your lifetime than a Muslim is likely to commit a terrorist attack during that same timespan

      selection of detail and manipulation of data

    2. American Muslims have killed less than 0.0002 percent of those murdered in the USA during this period

      selection of detail

    3. In fact in 2013, it was actually more likely Americans would be killed by a toddler than a terrorist

      selection of detail

    4. How many people did toddlers kill in 2013? Five, all by accidentally shooting a gun

      selection of detail of outlandish statistic to emphasise main point

    5. you actually have a better chance of being killed by a refrigerator falling on you

      selection of detail of outlandish statistic to emphasise main point

  2. Nov 2018
  3. Jul 2018
    1. I think this paper and these data could be extremely useful for psychologists, but I also think this paper needs at least one more analysis: estimating effect sizes by research area, controlling for publication bias.

      It's very hard to interpret these estimates given good evidence and arguments that researchers and journals select for p < .05. I think it's safe to assume that all these estimates reported in this preprint are bigger than the true averages (Simonsohn, Nelson, & Simmons, 2014).

      One approach to estimating "selection bias adjusted" effects would be to estimate the effect size for each research area using the code provided in the p-curve effect size paper supplements (http://www.p-curve.com/Supplement/). You could estimate confidence intervals or percentiles using bootstrapping procedures or write code to estimate the lower and upper bounds using the same methods to estimate the average effect.

      This approach assumes the p-values all test the hypothesis of interest and don't suffer from unique selection biases (see Selecting p Values in Simonsohn, Nelson, & Simmons, 2014, p. 540).

      Hope this helps make the paper better!

  4. Jun 2016
  5. Feb 2014
    1. Man cannot hope fully to duplicate this mental process artificially, but he certainly ought to be able to learn from it. In minor ways he may even improve, for his records have relative permanency. The first idea, however, to be drawn from the analogy concerns selection. Selection by association, rather than indexing, may yet be mechanized. One cannot hope thus to equal the speed and flexibility with which the mind follows an associative trail, but it should be possible to beat the mind decisively in regard to the permanence and clarity of the items resurrected from storage.

      Selection by association, rather than indexing.

  6. Nov 2013
    1. What one-sided preferences, first for this, then for that property of a thing!

      selection and choices

    2. It is only by means of forgetfulness that man can ever reach the point of fancying himself to possess a "truth" of the grade just indicated.

      Memory, selection, and choices.

    3. What men avoid by excluding the liar is not so much being defrauded as it is being harmed by means of fraud. Thus, even at this stage, what they hate is basically not deception itself, but rather the unpleasant, hated consequences of certain sorts of deception.

      Critical distinction regarding the process of "selection"; from his central thesis.

  7. Oct 2013
    1. In consequence, many students, when they have selected certain words or acquired a certain rhythm of composition from any orator's speeches, think that what they have read is admirably represented in their own sentences. Words come into use or fall into disuse according to the fashion of the day, as the most certain rule for their use is found in custom. They are not in their own nature either good or bad (for in themselves they are only sounds), but just as they are suitably and properly applied or otherwise. When our composition is best adapted to our subject, it becomes most pleasing from its variety.
    1. For nature has not condemned us to stupidity, but we ourselves have changed our mode of speaking and have indulged our fancies more than we ought; and thus the ancients did not excel us so much in genius as in severity of manner. It will be possible, therefore, to select from the moderns many qualities for imitation, but care must be taken that they be not contaminated with other qualities with which they are mixed. Yet that there have been recently, and are now, many writers whom we may imitate entirely, I would not only allow (for why should I not?) but even affirm. 26. But who they are it is not for everybody to decide. We may even err with greater safety in regard to the ancients, and I would therefore defer the reading of the moderns, that imitation may not go before judgment.

      What to select.

    1. This instruction he will give with the best effect, if he select particular passages from plays, such as are most adapted for this object, that is, such as most resemble pleadings. 13. The repetition of these passages will not only be most beneficial to pronunciation, but also highly efficient in fostering eloquence.

      What to select.