A plan devised by the Canadian Joint Operations Command relied on propaganda techniques similar to those employed during the Afghan war Author of the article:

Military leaders saw pandemic as unique opportunity to test propaganda on Canadians: report

We tested whether COVID-19 incidence and hospitalization rates during the Delta variant-related surge were inversely related to vaccination coverage among the 112 most populous counties in the United States, together comprising 44 percent of the country’s total population. We measured vaccination coverage as the percent of the county population fully vaccinated as of July 15, 2021. We measured COVID-19 incidence as the number of confirmed cases per 100,000 population during the 14-day period ending August 12, 2021 and hospitalization rates as the number of confirmed COVID-19 admissions per 100,000 population during the same 14-day period. In log-linear regression models, a 10-percentage-point increase in vaccination coverage was associated with a 28.3% decrease in COVID-19 incidence (95% confidence interval, 16.8 - 39.7%), a 44.9 percent decrease in the rate of COVID-19 hospitalization (95% CI, 28.8 - 61.0%), and a 16.6% decrease in COVID-19 hospitalizations per 100 cases (95% CI, 8.4 - 24.8%). Inclusion of demographic covariables, as well as county-specific diabetes prevalence, did not weaken the observed inverse relationship with vaccination coverage. A significant inverse relationship between vaccination coverage and COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 during August 20 – September 16 was also observed. The cumulative incidence of COVID-19 through June 30, 2021, a potential indicator of acquired immunity due to past infection, had no significant relation to subsequent case incidence or hospitalization rates in August. Higher vaccination coverage was associated not only with significantly lower COVID-19 incidence during the Delta surge, but also significantly less severe cases of the disease.

10.1101/2021.08.17.21262195

COVID-19 Incidence and Hospitalization During the Delta Surge Were Inversely Related to Vaccination Coverage Among the Most Populous U.S. Counties

Subramanian and Kumar (2021) found that COVID-19 vaccination rates were unrelated to infection rates across 68 countries and 2947 U.S. counties. We argue that their null effects resulted from 1) failure to attend to other variables related to infection rates that could obscure the ability to detect relationships between vaccination and infection rates and 2) unreliability of some of the data on vaccination and infection rates. We collected data on COVID-19 infection per million (IPM) and death per million (DPM) rates, as well as median age, in 120 countries for the week ending Oct. 22, 2021, and on IPM rates for U.S. states for nine weeks dispersed over a 3 ½ month period. In the global data, there were significant relationships between vaccination rates and COVID-19 IPM and DPM rates which became significantly stronger when median age was used as a covariate. Across U.S. states and European countries, which do not vary substantially in population age, these relationships were strong without using age as a covariate. We discuss Subramanian and Kumar (2021) in the context of methodological flaws that can obscure true relationships in terms of the disservice done to the vaccine-hesitant when invalid null findings regarding vaccine efficacy are sensationalized by the media, and in terms of unintentionally giving ammunition to anti-vax propagandists.

COVID-19 Infection Rates Are Related to Population Rates of Vaccination: A Response to Subramanian and Kumar

10.1007/s10654-021-00808-7

Vaccines currently are the primary mitigation strategy to combat COVID-19 around the world. For instance, the narrative related to the ongoing surge of new cases in the United States (US) is argued to be driven by areas with low vaccination rates [1]. A similar narrative also has been observed in countries, such as Germany and the United Kingdom [2]. At the same time, Israel that was hailed for its swift and high rates of vaccination has also seen a substantial resurgence in COVID-19 cases [3]. We investigate the relationship between the percentage of population  fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases across 68 countries and across 2947 counties in the US.

Increases in COVID-19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States

COVID-19 vaccine tracker and landscape

The COVID-19 vaccine tracker and landscape compiles detailed information of each COVID-19 vaccine candidate in development by closely monitoring their progress through the pipeline.

10.1016/j.jml.2010.10.002

Slippery slope arguments (SSAs) have a bad philosophical reputation. They seem, however, to be widely used and frequently accepted in many legal, political, and ethical contexts. Hahn and Oaksford (2007) argued that distinguishing strong and weak SSAs may have a rational basis in Bayesian decision theory. In this paper three experiments investigated the mechanism of the slippery slope showing that they may have an objective basis in category boundary re-appraisal. When the beginning and the end of a slippery slope are more similar, the probability that they are perceived to belong in the same category is higher and the SSA is stronger. Experiment 1 established a robust effect of probability on SSA evaluation. Experiments 2 and 2A showed that when similar items are classified in the same category this leads to stronger SSAs. In Experiment 3, in a correlational analysis, it was shown that participants’ confidence in their categorisation judgements predicted the perceived strength of an SSA and that this relationship was moderated by similarity between the ends of the slippery slope. We conclude that an important aspect of many SSAs may have an objective basis in well-established and rational cognitive theories.

The psychological mechanism of the slippery slope argument

Some tips on interpreting models (from an @SMC_London talk I gave a few months ago):

Most experts agree eradicating COVID-19 is now almost certainly out of the questionBut even in the absence of herd immunity, vaccines considerably reduce severe diseaseOver time COVID-19, like other infectious diseases such as the flu, will become endemic

Australia's path from pandemic to endemic, and what 'living with COVID' could mean

Incoming government recommending unvaccinated citizens be banned from public transportIt will also bar the unvaccinated from going to work and recommend WFH for allComes amid soaring infections and sluggish vaccine rollout across countryStates are warning that their hospitals will hit capacity by early December 

Germany to follow Austria's lockdown apartheid: Berlin considers new Covid restrictions for 14million unvaccinated citizens after Vienna banned those without jabs from leaving their homes

Few topics in health policy have generated as much debate—and frustration—among public health experts as the issue of vaccine safety. Misinformation around the science of vaccination continues to spread, and too often the media fails to report bad science for what it is.   Using science-informed analysis alongside original art and powerful essays, health science leader Timothy Caulfield debunks the myths and false assumptions about vaccination safety and effectiveness. Accessible, informative, and entertaining, The Vaccination Picture tells the true story of vaccines, their uses, and their positive effects for everyone.…

The Vaccination Picture

We now have B.1.1.529 sequences (designed at @nextstrain clade 21K) up in our Africa build. You can check them out below. These are from South Africa & Botswana - you can see the high number of mutations. CoVariants focal build & updates will come ASAP.

Im Corona-Hotspot Erzgebirgskreis haben sich zahlreiche Menschen versammelt, um unter anderem gegen die Impfpflicht zu protestieren. Vor allem Krankenhäuser waren das Ziel der Menge. Die Inzidenz liegt bei 2.000.

Hunderte Menschen protestierten gegen Corona-Maßnahmen

Rich countries must act to expand our knowledge of Sars-Cov-2 by establishing close monitoring in poorer nations

Covid has revealed the need for genomic sequencing around the world

10.1038/s41562-021-01220-7

Self-correction—a key feature distinguishing science from pseudoscience—requires that scientists update their beliefs in light of new evidence. However, people are often reluctant to change their beliefs. We examined belief updating in action by tracking research psychologists’ beliefs in psychological effects before and after the completion of four large-scale replication projects. We found that psychologists did update their beliefs; they updated as much as they predicted they would, but not as much as our Bayesian model suggests they should if they trust the results. We found no evidence that psychologists became more critical of replications when it would have preserved their pre-existing beliefs. We also found no evidence that personal investment or lack of expertise discouraged belief updating, but people higher on intellectual humility updated their beliefs slightly more. Overall, our results suggest that replication studies can contribute to self-correction within psychology, but psychologists may underweight their evidentiary value.

Psychologists update their beliefs about effect sizes after replication studies

A snapshot of the top of the vaccination table - highlighting a few countries of interest

The new covid sceptic All Party Parliamentary Group on Pandemic Response and Recovery is backed by Gupta and Heneghan's Collateral Global to the tune of over £30,000. £5,000 in financial benefits plus £25,501 - £27,000 benefits in kind (CG is acting as their secretariat).

A reduction in rates of severe disease and death relative to cases is not a new pattern! Remember first chart in this thread? Here’s the exact same pattern, but in UK. Did we say "Delta appears to be milder"? Nope. What changed was levels of immunity, here mostly via vaccines.

Vaccines to protect young children from Covid-19 are likely soon on their way. The Food and Drug Administration has authorized the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine for emergency use in children ages 5 to 11. If the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention signs off, vaccinations could begin next week.

Yes, You’ll Want to Vaccinate Your Kids Against Covid. An Expert Explains Why.

I Am So Tired

Practicing medicine in a vaccine-ambivalent country

On August 23, 2021, FDA announced the first approval of a COVID-19 vaccine. The vaccine has been known as the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, and will now be marketed as Comirnaty, for the prevention of COVID-19 in individuals 16 years of age and older.

Comirnaty and Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine

Carey Business School expert Stacey Lee discusses the implications and possible outcomes of requiring employees to get COVID-19 vaccines By

The legality of vaccine mandates

Around twice as many French people are being vaccinated daily as are protesting against the passe sanitaire each week.

Why Emmanuel Macron’s vaccine passport scheme worked

Governments scramble to combat more infectious Delta variant * France has taken tougher stance on mandatory vaccinations * Portion of French people with first dose of vaccine overtakes US, Germany

Are vaccine passports moving the needle on getting people inoculated?

Vaccination rates in France and Italy have soared after leaders announced a raft of restrictions that will drastically curtail the freedom of unvaccinated people, moves the governments see as essential in containing outbreaks of Covid-19 and preventing further lockdowns but which critics argue amount to an authoritarian abuse of power.     

Vaccine Passports Spur Explosion In Vaccinations—And Protests—As Europe Cracks Down On Vaccine Holdouts

Many more people arranged to have jabs this week following news of the introduction of a corona passport for entry to festivals, bars and other venues, central health board association GGD GHOR has reported.

More people sign up for a vaccination after coronavirus passport news

Vaccination rates have increased by 20 per cent in North Bay Parry Sound since early September

Vaccine passports lead to uptick in vaccination rates in northeastern Ontario

They’re meant to be heroes within the Star Wars universe, but the Jedi are inappropriate symbols for justice work

Why the Term ‘JEDI’ Is Problematic for Describing Programs That Promote Justice, Equity, Diversity and Inclusion

Australia will surpass the US on vaccination this week. New South Wales already there.

BACKGROUND During the COVID-19 pandemic, face masks are used as source control devices to reduce the expulsion of respiratory aerosols from infected people. Modifications such as mask braces, earloop straps, knotting and tucking, and double masking have been proposed to improve mask fit. However, the data on source control are limited.METHODS The effectiveness of mask fit modifications was determined by conducting fit tests on human subjects and simulator manikins and by performing simulated coughs and exhalations using a source control measurement system.RESULTS Medical masks without modification blocked ≥56% of cough aerosols and ≥42% of exhaled aerosols. Modifying fit by crossing the earloops or placing a bracket under the mask did not increase performance, while using earloop toggles, an earloop strap, and knotting and tucking the mask increased performance. The most effective modifications for improving source control performance were double masking and using a mask brace. Placing a cloth mask over a medical mask blocked ≥85% of cough aerosols and ≥91% of exhaled aerosols. Placing a brace over a medical mask blocked ≥95% of cough aerosols and ≥99% of exhaled aerosols.CONCLUSION Fit modifications can greatly improve the performance of face masks as source control devices for respiratory aerosols.

10.1101/2021.09.16.21263642

Face mask fit modifications that improve source control performance

New York City Update Cases down 67%. Positive rate down to 3.8%, lowest since 12/12. Hospital census down 33%, lowest since 12/28. New admits lowest since 12/21. Getting closer and closer to pre-Omicron levels.

Preprints can be valuable additions to the scientific literature. But we must start seeing them as perishable commodities rather than akin to peer-reviewed, published studies.

Opinion: The Problem with Preprints

Im letzten Jahr wurde in der Schweiz erstmals seit 1876 kein einziger Fall nachgewiesen. Doch es gibt ein Problem: Viele Kinder haben in der Pandemie die erste Masernimpfung verpasst.

Die Masern sind in der Schweiz verschwunden – bleibt das so?

David Jordan tells House of Lords that ‘all points of view’ should be represented by broadcaster

BBC does not subscribe to ‘cancel culture’, says director of editorial policy

Isolating, either enforced or self-guided, is a well-recognised and used technique in the limitation and reduction of disease spread. This usually balances the societal harm of disease transmission against the individual harm of being isolated and is typically limited to a very small number of individuals. With the widespread transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and requirements to self-isolate when symptomatic or having tested positive, the number of people affected has grown very large causing noticeable individual cost, and disruption to the provision of essential services. With widespread access to reliable rapid antigen tests (also known as LFD or LFTs), in this paper we examine strategies to utilise this testing technology to limit the individual harm whist maintaining the protective effect of isolation. We extend this work to examine how isolation may be improved and mitigate the release of infective individuals into the population caused by fixed time-periods.

10.1101/2021.12.23.21268326

Mitigating isolation: The use of rapid antigen testing to reduce the impact of self-isolation periods

Aufschlüsselung der stationären Aufnahmen nach Betroffenen innerhalb von 100.000 Personen einer Altersgruppe. 58 Prozent der Intensivpatienten unter 60 Jahre alt.

Corona: Spitalsinzidenz bei Ungeimpften in Wien weitaus höher

Last September, England’s chief medical officer estimated that half of children had had Covid – a figure that will now be far higher.

UK is ‘past the point’ where vaccinating young children against Covid would help

Objectives To characterize the clinical severity of covid-19 associated with the alpha, delta, and omicron SARS-CoV-2 variants among adults admitted to hospital and to compare the effectiveness of mRNA vaccines to prevent hospital admissions related to each variant.Design Case-control study.Setting 21 hospitals across the United States.Participants 11 690 adults (≥18 years) admitted to hospital: 5728 with covid-19 (cases) and 5962 without covid-19 (controls). Patients were classified into SARS-CoV-2 variant groups based on viral whole genome sequencing, and, if sequencing did not reveal a lineage, by the predominant circulating variant at the time of hospital admission: alpha (11 March to 3 July 2021), delta (4 July to 25 December 2021), and omicron (26 December 2021 to 14 January 2022).Main outcome measures Vaccine effectiveness calculated using a test negative design for mRNA vaccines to prevent covid-19 related hospital admissions by each variant (alpha, delta, omicron). Among patients admitted to hospital with covid-19, disease severity on the World Health Organization’s clinical progression scale was compared among variants using proportional odds regression.Results Effectiveness of the mRNA vaccines to prevent covid-19 associated hospital admissions was 85% (95% confidence interval 82% to 88%) for two vaccine doses against the alpha variant, 85% (83% to 87%) for two doses against the delta variant, 94% (92% to 95%) for three doses against the delta variant, 65% (51% to 75%) for two doses against the omicron variant; and 86% (77% to 91%) for three doses against the omicron variant. In-hospital mortality was 7.6% (81/1060) for alpha, 12.2% (461/3788) for delta, and 7.1% (40/565) for omicron. Among unvaccinated patients with covid-19 admitted to hospital, severity on the WHO clinical progression scale was higher for the delta versus alpha variant (adjusted proportional odds ratio 1.28, 95% confidence interval 1.11 to 1.46), and lower for the omicron versus delta variant (0.61, 0.49 to 0.77). Compared with unvaccinated patients, severity was lower for vaccinated patients for each variant, including alpha (adjusted proportional odds ratio 0.33, 0.23 to 0.49), delta (0.44, 0.37 to 0.51), and omicron (0.61, 0.44 to 0.85).Conclusions mRNA vaccines were found to be highly effective in preventing covid-19 associated hospital admissions related to the alpha, delta, and omicron variants, but three vaccine doses were required to achieve protection against omicron similar to the protection that two doses provided against the delta and alpha variants. Among adults admitted to hospital with covid-19, the omicron variant was associated with less severe disease than the delta variant but still resulted in substantial morbidity and mortality. Vaccinated patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 had significantly lower disease severity than unvaccinated patients for all the variants.

10.1136/bmj-2021-069761

Clinical severity of, and effectiveness of mRNA vaccines against, covid-19 from omicron, delta, and alpha SARS-CoV-2 variants in the United States: prospective observational study