The numbers point to a second wave. Without strong action, hospitalisations will increase and deaths will follow

Coronavirus cases are rising again in the UK. Here's what should happen next

Rishi Sunak’s Eat Out to Help Out scheme may be to blame for a uptick in coronavirus cases in the UK, a report suggests.

Rishi Sunak’s Eat Out to Help Out scheme could be to blame for UK coronavirus spike, figures suggest

10.31234/osf.io/24ncs

Providing access to research data collected as part of scientific publications and publicly funded research projects is now regarded as a central aspect of an open and transparent scientific practice and is increasingly being called for by funding institutions and scientific journals. To this end, researchers should strive to comply with the so-called FAIR principles (of scientific data management), that is, research data should be findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable. Systematic data management supports these goals and, at the same time, makes it possible to achieve them efficiently. With these revised recommendations on data management and data sharing, which also draw on feedback from a 2018 survey of its members, the German Psychological Society (Deutsche Gesellschaft für Psychologie; DGPs) specifies important basic principles of data management in psychology. Initially, based on discipline-specific definitions of raw data, primary data, secondary data, and metadata, we provide recommendations on the degree of data processing necessary when publishing data. We then discuss data protection as well as aspects of copyright and data usage before defining the qualitative requirements for trustworthy research data repositories. This is followed by a detailed discussion of pragmatic aspects of data sharing, such as the differences between Type 1 and Type 2 data publications, restrictions on use (embargo period), the definition of "scientific use" by secondary users of shared data, and recommendations on how to resolve potential disputes. Particularly noteworthy is the new recommendation of distinct "access categories" for data, each with different requirements in terms of data protection or research ethics. These range from completely open data without usage restrictions ("access category 0") to data shared under a set of standardized conditions (e.g., reuse restricted to scientific purposes; "access category 1"), individualized usage agreements ("access category 2"), and secure data access under strictly controlled conditions (e.g., in a research data center; “access category 3"). The practical implementation of this important innovation, however, will require data repositories to provide the necessary technical functionalities. In summary, the revised recommendations aim to present pragmatic guidelines for researchers to handle psychological research data in an open and transparent manner, while addressing structural challenges to data sharing solutions that are beneficial for all involved parties.

Data Management and Data Sharing in Psychological Science: Revision of the DGPs Recommendations

10.31234/osf.io/htny8

Background: Maternal stress levels and mental health symptoms have significantly increased since the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic began. As a result, experts have become concerned about elevated substance use given well-known associations between negative emotions and increased substance use. Extant research has not examined substance use among mothers during the COVID-19 pandemic which is a critical next step given links between maternal substance use and adverse childhood outcomes. Methods: Data was collected April 14th to 28th, 2020 from 508 mothers (Mage = 34.8 years, SD = 5.1) with young children between the ages of 0 to 8 years old via the Parenting During the Pandemic study. To identify associations between self-reported changes in substance use, mothers completed self-reported questionnaires on their substance use, motivations for using substances, and their mental health. Results: Of participating mothers, 54.9% did not change their substance use, 39.2% increased their use, and 5.9% decreased their use. Findings indicate that mothers with an anxiety disorder or clinically relevant anxiety symptomatology were more likely to report increased substance use during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using substances to cope with anxiety, but not depression or boredom, was significantly elevated among mothers who self-reported increased substance use during the pandemic relative to those reporting no change to or a decrease in usage. Using substances to cope with anxiety was a risk factor for increasing substance use. Discussion: A large proportion of mothers have reported increasing their substance use since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results highlight the crucial need to treat maternal anxiety and the importance of teaching mothers alternative coping strategies, other than using substances, to reduce the incidence of increased substance use among mothers and its negative sequelae.

Changes in Maternal Substance Use During the COVID-19 Pandemic

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From a human-made virus to vaccine conspiracy theories, we rounded up the most persistent false claims about the pandemic

Nine COVID-19 Myths That Just Won’t Go Away

Whatever the reasons for apparent declining mortality, the impact of drug treatments on the COVID-19 pandemic is still limited. The massive research effort needs to bear fruit with a broader range of effective therapies.

10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30706-4

Curing COVID-19

10.31234/osf.io/zutav

We surveyed a sample of people from the Australian public about their concerns and mental health (n = 1599) during COVID-19 lock-down. When estimating their mental health for the previous year 13% of participants reported more negative than positive emotion, whereas this increased to 41% when participants reflected on their prior month during COVID-19 lock-down. A substantial proportion (39-54%) of participants reported deterioration in mental health, physical health, financial situation, and work productivity. Less impact was apparent for social relationships as participants compensated for decreased face-to-face interaction via increased technology-mediated interaction. We found evidence to suggest a general increase in compassion for others, as participants reported that due to the pandemic they were feeling more concerned about the welfare of people close to them (87%), and people in general (84%). However, the extent of increased concern for others was also found to be negatively associated with mental health. Most participants reported a generally favourable attitude regarding the government pandemic response. This study reveals that even when the public are largely supportive of the government response to a pandemic there can still be large public health implications due to the overall level of disruption to people's lives.

Change in mental health during highly restrictive lockdown in the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Australia

COVID-19 Dashboard

 is an open-access overlay journal that accelerates peer review of COVID-19-related research preprints to advance new and important findings, and prevent the dissemination of false or misleading scientific news. The editors, led by Professor Stefano Bertozzi and based at UC Berkeley, approach COVID-19 and its wide-ranging effects from a multidisciplinary and global perspective, reviewing papers from the fields of medicine; public health; the physical, biological, and chemical sciences; engineering; social sciences and the humanities.

Rapid Reviews

10.2105/AJPH.2009.164160

Objectives. We pretested interventions derived from different domains of behavior change theory to determine their effectiveness at increasing hand washing with soap in a natural setting.Methods. We installed wireless devices in highway service station restrooms to record entry and soap use. Two text-only messages for each of 7 psychological domains were compared for their effect on soap-use rates. We collected data on nearly 200 000 restroom uses.Results. The knowledge activation domain was most effective for women, with a relative increase in soap use of 9.4% compared with the control condition (P = .001). For men, disgust was the most effective, increasing soap use by 9.8% (P = .001). Disgust was not significantly better than the control condition for women, nor was knowledge activation for men. Messages based on social norms and social status were effective for both genders.Conclusions. Our data show that unobtrusive observation of behavior in a natural setting can help identify the most effective interventions for changing behaviors of public health importance. The gender differences we found suggest that public health interventions should target men and women differently.

Experimental Pretesting of Hand-Washing Interventions in a Natural Setting

Testing is broken. So many stories in last 24 hrs of medical colleagues trying to get tests because kids have a fever or cough. They can’t get one. They can’t work until they get one. How long is this farce going to continue. This was entirely predictable.

A black market has developed in Russia for an antiviral HIV drug explored as a possible treatment for COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the new coronavirus, according to sellers, HIV activists and the head of the drug’s main Russian producer.

Exclusive: In Russia, a black market for HIV drug to try on coronavirus

If bats and pangolins could review scientific papers, they’d definitely have given the following article an “accept without revisions.”  An international group of researchers has proposed that COVID-19 hitched a ride to this planet from space. Same for the fungal infection Candida auris. 

COVID-19 arrived on a meteorite, claims Elsevier book chapter

With regards to the proposed system, I found it hard to follow (had to keep scrolling up and down to refer to different sections to get the whole picture!), but here's what I understand:Authors publish articles and then submit it (in essence, submitting a pre-print to be reviewed for a journal), paying for the article to be reviewed (with a bidding system)Reviewers receive part of this review fee (but it seems the journals can decide to keep some?)Journals are formed by editorial boards, and the reputation of the journal depends on who is on the editorial board. It also depends on the impact of the articles published(?—I read this point coming in the end, but wasn't sure how the two interacted) Journals are shifting and change the moment there is a change to the editorial boardThe reviewers also come from the editorial boardsTo join the editorial boards one also needs to bid a joining feeI did find it all very complex, and wondered what the incentive was, as an author, to buy in to such a system. Primarily, not knowing what the criteria for the review I'd be paying for would be a red flag for me. So this, I think, needs to be better defined and transparent.

A completely re-imagined approach to peer review and publishing: PRINCIPIA

I’ve again updated my chart of COVID-19 hospital admissions to include the latest numbers. Admissions in England are rising. The 7-day moving average has increased by 70% since its low point on 26 August. This is the first sustained increase in admissions since March/April.

Only a fairer society can lay the foundations for economic recovery, and build resilience to future crises

Covid-19 has exposed the reality of Britain: poverty, insecurity and inequality

Past research suggests that actors often seek to minimize harm at the cost of maximizing social welfare. However, this prior research has confounded a desire to minimize the negative impact caused by one’s actions (harm aversion) with a desire to avoid causing any harm whatsoever (harm avoidance). Across six studies (N = 2,152), we demonstrate that these two motives are distinct. When decision-makers can completely avoid committing a harmful act, they strongly prefer to do so. However, harming cannot always be avoided. Often, decision-makers must choose between committing less harm for less benefit and committing more harm for more benefit. In these cases, harm aversion diminishes substantially, and decision-makers become increasingly willing to commit greater harm to obtain greater benefits. Thus, value trade-offs that decision-makers refuse to accept when it is possible to completely avoid committing harm can suddenly become desirable when some harm must be committed.

10.1177/0956797620948821

Moral Choice When Harming Is Unavoidable

10.31234/osf.io/z7drs

The global pandemic of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has had an adverse impact on the mental health of millions. Historical data shows that large-scale disease outbreaks are associated with elevated rates of suicide in both the short and the long term. There are certain distinctive features of the COVID-19 outbreak, from a biological as well as a psychological and social perspective, that make it likely that it will be associated with a significant increase in suicidality which may persist even after a certain degree of control has been achieved over the spread of infection. In this article, relevant historical and current literature pertaining to the association between COVID-19 and suicide are summarized and analyzed, and recommendations for preventive measures are outlined.

Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and Suicide: Conceptual and Practical Considerations

Accumulating data on deaths from covid-19 show an association with age that closely matches the “normal” risk we all face. Explaining risk in this way could help people understand and manage their response, says David Spiegelhalter

10.1136/bmj.m3259

Use of “normal” risk to improve understanding of dangers of covid-19

We're building a 'crowdacting' platform that helps researchers signal their desire for positive cultural change and then act collectively to bring it about, thus protecting individuals from unecessary risk as we practice open science together.

FOK discussion forum

reasons_to_pledge

The Center for Open Science occasionally hosts virtual hack-a-thons, 1 to 4 hour events, focused on addressing an inefficiency or dysfunctional practice in the research culture. These hack-a-thons are concrete, task-focused sessions to generate data, review policies, or conduct outreach to move the needle on improving the research culture. The typical session has a 10-20 minute introduction and training for the task, and then an open period in which participants contribute to the hack-a-thon objective. Sessions are managed via Zoom and open docs and spreadsheets for tracking and coordinating the teamwork.

Hack-a-thons to improve the research culture

Published in Science in 2015 (OA), the Transparency and Openness Promotion Guidelines (PDF and HTML) include eight modular standards, each with three levels of increasing stringency. Journals select which of the eight transparency standards they wish to implement and select a level of implementation for each. These features provide flexibility for adoption depending on disciplinary variation, but simultaneously establish community standards.

The TOP Guidelines were created by journals, funders, and societies to align scientific ideals with practices.

GDP growth in the euro area and EU: In the second quarter of 2020, still marked by COVID-19 containment measures in most Member States, seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by 11.8% in the euro area and by 11.4% in the EU compared with the previous quarter, according to an estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. These were by far the sharpest declines observed since the time series started in 1995. In the first quarter of 2020, GDP had decreased by 3.7% in the euro area and by 3.3% in the EU.

GDP main aggregates and employment estimates for the second quarter of 2020: GDP down by 11.8% and employment down by 2.9% in the euro area

5 Step Guide to Checking Ventilation Rates in Classrooms

In this guide, you’ll learn how to: Measure the Classroom DimensionsPerform Preliminary Audio and Visual ChecksMeasure or Estimate Outdoor Air Ventilation Rate (using one of four methods)Compare Results to TargetsIf Needed, Consider Supplemental Air cleaning Strategies to Meet Targets

Matt Hancock tells Radio 4 that on average people only have to travel ten miles to get a nasal swab test for Covid using his failing private system. Yet every GP surgery can do nasal swabs...but are not allowed to for Covid.

10.1038/d41586-020-02541-9

The pandemic has worsened the plight of postdoctoral researchers. Funders need to be offering more than moral support.

Postdocs in crisis: science cannot risk losing the next generation

Susan Athey of Stanford University presents "Confidence Intervals for Policy Evaluation in Adaptive Experiments"

Susan Athey, July 22, 2020

In an interview with Robert Peston for ITV News, Professor John Edmunds - a member of the government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) - warned that coronavirus cases are "increasing exponentially".Prof Edmunds, from the Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said that although we are all still socially distancing far more than we were before the virus arrived, we have not "hit the sweet spot" that allows more normal economic activity and simultaneous control of the spread of the virus. Prof Edmunds said that the autumn will be a challenge, because the rate of reproduction of the virus or R rate is above one - when schools and universities are re-opening. 

Exclusive: SAGE scientist tells Peston coronavirus cases 'increasing exponentially'

Using adaptive designs in field experiments can have greatbenefits:1. More ethical, by helping participants as much as possible.2. Better power for a given sample size, by targeting policy learning.3. More acceptable to stakeholders, by aligning design with their objectives.•Adaptive designs are practicallyfeasible:We have implemented them in challenging settings.E.g., labor market interventions for Syrian refugees in Jordan,and agricultural outreach for subsistence farmers in India.•Implementation requires learning some newtools.•I have developed some software to facilitate implementation.•Interactive apps for treatment assignment, and source code for various designs.

How to run an adaptive field experiment

This is why you need to download the @BotSentinel extension, folks

To reach longer-term goals and live aligned with their values, people typically must regulate their behavior. Effortful self-control is one way to achieve this and is usually framed as a forceful struggle between lower-level impulses and higher-level cognitive control processes. For example, people may restrain themselves from eating cake in order to lose weight. An alternative avenue of self-regulation draws on autonomous motivation: Individuals eat healthfully because it is values-congruent or intrinsically satisfying. Recent advances in the understanding of reward valuation on a neural level (e.g., ventromedial prefrontal cortex/orbitofrontal cortex) and emerging treatments on a clinical level (e.g., mindfulness training) suggest a possible mechanistic convergence between brain and behavior that is consistent with a shift from forced to unforced behavior change. Here we propose how an overlooked aspect of reinforcement learning can be leveraged using a simple yet critical feature of experience that is not reliant on willpower: Bringing awareness to one’s subjective experience and behavior can produce a change in valuation of learned but unhealthy behaviors, leading to self-regulatory shifts that result in sustainable behavior change without force.

10.1177/1745691620931460

Self-Regulation Without Force: Can Awareness Leverage Reward to Drive Behavior Change?

According to numerous research studies, when adults hear a statement twice, they are more likely to think it is true compared with when they have heard it only once. Multiple theoretical explanations exist for this illusory-truth effect. However, none of the current theories fully explains how or why people begin to use repetition as a cue for truth. In this preregistered study, we investigated those developmental origins in twenty-four 5-year-olds, twenty-four 10-year-olds, and 32 adults. If the link between repetition and truth is learned implicitly, then even 5-year-olds should show the effect. Alternatively, realizing this connection may require metacognition and intentional reflection, skills acquired later in development. Repetition increased truth judgments for all three age groups, and prior knowledge did not protect participants from the effects of repetition. These results suggest that the illusory-truth effect is a universal effect learned at a young age.

10.1177/0956797620939534

The Effect of Repetition on Truth Judgments Across Development

How could public health use social media more effectively — from adapting scientific messages to ‘flatten the Covid-19 curve’, to using trusted stories to change behaviour and #StayHomeSaveLives?

Trolls and Tribulations: Social Media and Public Health

As it weighs its response to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, the city of Somerville is turning to science — and its sewers.By testing raw sewage for coronavirus particles at 10 sites throughout the city, Somerville's mayor said he hopes to "get ahead of the virus."

Somerville, Northeastern Partner To Look For Coronavirus In City Sewage

10.1093/aje/kwaa188

The extent and duration of immunity following SARS-CoV-2 infection are critical outstanding questions about the epidemiology of this novel virus, and studies are needed to evaluate the effects of serostatus on reinfection. Understanding the potential sources of bias and methods to alleviate biases in these studies is important for informing their design and analysis. Confounding by individual-level risk factors in observational studies like these is relatively well appreciated. Here, we show how geographic structure and the underlying, natural dynamics of epidemics can also induce noncausal associations. We take the approach of simulating serologic studies in the context of an uncontrolled or a controlled epidemic, under different assumptions about whether prior infection does or does not protect an individual against subsequent infection, and using various designs and analytic approaches to analyze the simulated data. We find that in studies assessing whether seropositivity confers protection against future infection, comparing seropositive individuals to seronegative individuals with similar time-dependent patterns of exposure to infection, by stratifying or matching on geographic location and time of enrollment, is essential to prevent bias.

Potential Biases Arising from Epidemic Dynamics in Observational Seroprotection Studies

10.31234/osf.io/3y874

The COVID-19 pandemic poses a global health threat that has dominated media coverage. However, not much is known about how individuals use media to acquire knowledge about COVID-19 under conditions of perceived threat. To address this, this study investigated how perceived threat affects media use (i.e., media volume and media breadth), and how media use in turn affects perceived and actual knowledge about COVID-19. In a German online survey, N = 952 participants provided information on their perceived threat and their media use to inform themselves about COVID-19. They further indicated how well they are informed about COVID-19 (perceived knowledge) and completed a COVID-19 knowledge test (actual knowledge). The results indicated that individuals who felt more threatened by COVID-19 used media more often to inform themselves (i.e., media volume), but focused on less different media channels (i.e., media breadth). Higher media volume was associated with higher perceived knowledge, but not with higher actual knowledge about COVID-19. Further, exploratory analyses revealed that perceived threat was linked to perceived knowledge, but not to actual knowledge. The association of perceived threat and perceived knowledge was mediated by increased media volume. Finally, a smaller media breadth was linked to higher perceived and actual knowledge.

The Effect of Information Behavior in Media on Perceived and Actual Knowledge about the COVID-19 Pandemic

10.31234/osf.io/h8tak

Prevention focus is a self-regulatory orientation that serves the need for security, and promotion focus is a self-regulatory orientation serves the need for growth. From mid-March to early April 2020, did people judge prevention focus to be more useful than promotion focus for responding to COVID-19? Our study tested this hypothesis with 401 American and Canadian participants, who we sampled in 100-person waves in the first four Thursdays of the pandemic. For this study, we developed a new measure of the judged usefulness of promotion and prevention focus. Results supported this hypothesis. Additionally, results showed that the judged usefulness of promotion and prevention focus related positively to support of the psychological needs for autonomy and relatedness, respectively, in responding to COVID-19. Day-to-day differences in autonomy, competence, and relatedness support and in promotion and prevention focus suggest that people were remarkably resilient in the early weeks of the pandemic. Our research could be useful for crafting persuasive advocacy and narrative communications that encourage social distancing to protect others about whom people care most.

Need Support and Regulatory Focus in Responding to COVID-19