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  1. Oct 2021
    1. When veteran scientist Craig Rayner saw Australian laboratory results had been published that suggested the drug ivermectin could potentially fight COVID-19, he felt a sense of dread.The experienced drug developer was aware experiments with ivermectin had been performed. Two weeks earlier, researchers at the Monash Biomedicine Discovery Institute had sought his opinion on some laboratory tests that showed the drug could stop the SARS-Cov-2 virus from growing in cell culture.
    2. How a false science ‘cure’ became Australia’s contribution to the pandemic
    3. Alexander, H. (2021, October 21). How a false science ‘cure’ became Australia’s contribution to the pandemic. The Sydney Morning Herald. https://www.smh.com.au/national/how-a-false-science-cure-became-australia-s-contribution-to-the-pandemic-20211013-p58zp3.html

    1. Pagel, C., & Yates, C. A. (2021). Tackling the pandemic with (biased) data. Science, 374(6566), 403–404. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abi6602

    2. 2021-10-22

    3. Accurate and near real-time data about the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic have been crucial in informing mitigation policies. Because choosing the right mitigation policies relies on an accurate assessment of the current state of the local epidemic, the potential ramifications of misinterpreting data are serious. Each data source has inherent biases and pitfalls in interpretation. The more data sources that are interpreted in combination, the easier it is to detect genuine changes in an epidemic. Recently, in many countries, this has involved disentangling the varying impact of rising but heterogeneous vaccination rates, relaxation of mitigations, and the emergence of new variants such as Delta.
    4. Tackling the pandemic with (biased) data
    5. 10.1126/science.abi6602 PREVIOUS ARTICLEAn improved water-harvesting cyclePreviousNEXT ARTICLEIn Other JournalsNext Data is empty
    1. UCL Centre for Behaviour Change. (2021, October 12). The CBC Conference 2021 programme has just been released and is packed with thought-provoking talks, international keynote speakers, symposia, and plenty of networking opportunities and social exchanges for delegates. Register now! Http://tinyurl.com/5xwa7c27 #cbcconf2021 https://t.co/9iZqPjEEY6 [Tweet]. @UCLBehaveChange. https://twitter.com/UCLBehaveChange/status/1447860878511157252

    2. 2021-10-12

    3. The CBC Conference 2021 programme has just been released and is packed with thought-provoking talks, international keynote speakers, symposia, and plenty of networking opportunities and social exchanges for delegates. Register now! http://tinyurl.com/5xwa7c27 #cbcconf2021
    1. ReconfigBehSci. (2021, October 22). RT @Dr2NisreenAlwan: ONS data published today: 1.8% of the England population had covid during the weeking ending 16 Oct. That is 1 in 55 p… [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1451560617416937479

    2. 2021-10-22

    3. ONS data published today: 1.8% of the England population had covid during the weeking ending 16 Oct. That is 1 in 55 people. The highest rate in secondary school kids. That is 7.8% of them. That is 1 in 12.
  2. Sep 2021
    1. The world has administered 6 billion doses of COVID vaccines to 3.4 Billion people For people waiting for more data before getting the shot The data is in We've vaccinated nearly half of all humanity The vaccines are safe
    2. Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH. (2021, September 23). The world has administered 6 billion doses of COVID vaccines to 3.4 Billion people For people waiting for more data before getting the shot The data is in We’ve vaccinated nearly half of all humanity The vaccines are safe [Tweet]. @ashishkjha. https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1440880130331746307

    3. 2021-09-23

    1. People with weak immune systems may need COVID booster shots: Infectious disease expert. (n.d.). Fox Business. Retrieved 17 September 2021, from http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/6272871561001/

    2. The booster debate shows how much we need better real-life data collected here in the U.S. and we don't because public health has been chronically underinvested in and neglected. The debate amidst profound global vaccine inequity grows more frustrating.
    3. 2021-09-16

    4. you have to register for an account in order to be able to read the newspaper article.

    1. BackgroundAs the world begins the rollout of multiple COVID-19 vaccines, pandemic exit strategies hinge on widespread acceptance of these vaccines. In this study, we perform a large-scale global exploratory study to examine the levels of COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and explore sociodemographic determinants of acceptance.MethodsBetween October 31, 2020 and December 15, 2020, 26,759 individuals were surveyed across 32 countries via nationally representative survey designs. Bayesian methods are used to estimate COVID-19 vaccination acceptance and explore the sociodemographic determinants of uptake, as well as the link between self-reported health and faith in the government’s handling of the pandemic and acceptance.ResultsHere we show that intent to accept a COVID-19 vaccine is low in Lebanon, France, Croatia, and Serbia and there is population-level polarisation in acceptance in Poland and Pakistan. Averaged across all countries, being male, over 65, having a high level of education, and believing that the government is handling the pandemic well are associated with increased stated acceptance, but there are country-specific deviations. A belief that the government is handling the pandemic well in Brazil and the United States is associated with lower vaccination intent. In the United Kingdom, we find that approval of the first COVID-19 vaccine in December 2020 did not appear to have an impact on the UK’s vaccine acceptance, though as rollout has continued into 2021, the UK’s uptake exceeds stated intent in large-scale surveys conducted before rollout.ConclusionsIdentifying factors that may modulate uptake of novel COVID-19 vaccines can inform effective immunisation programmes and policies. Differential stated intent to accept vaccines between socio-demographic groups may yield insights into the specific causes of low confidence and may suggest and inform targeted communication policies to boost confidence.
    2. Exploratory study of the global intent to accept COVID-19 vaccinations
    3. de Figueiredo, A., & Larson, H. J. (2021). Exploratory study of the global intent to accept COVID-19 vaccinations. Communications Medicine, 1(1), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-021-00027-x

    4. 10.1038/s43856-021-00027-x
    5. 2021-09-09

  3. Aug 2021
    1. Lopes, L., Stokes, M., & 2021. (2021, June 30). KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor: June 2021. KFF. https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-june-2021/

    2. KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor: June 2021 Liz Hamel Follow @lizhamel on Twitter , Lunna Lopes , Audrey Kearney Follow @audrey__kearney on Twitter , Grace Sparks Follow @gracesparks on Twitter , Mellisha Stokes , and Mollyann Brodie Follow @Mollybrodie on Twitter Published: Jun 30, 2021 Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Email Print Findings Methodology The KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor is an ongoing research project tracking the public’s attitudes and experiences with COVID-19 vaccinations. Using a combination of surveys and qualitative research, this project tracks the dynamic nature of public opinion as vaccine development and distribution unfold, including vaccine confidence and acceptance, information needs, trusted messengers and messages, as well as the public’s experiences with vaccination.
    3. KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor: June 2021
    4. 2021-07-30

    1. Tammy Duckworth. (2021, July 22). Please—Listen to the experts. 97% of those hospitalized from COVID-19 are unvaccinated. Over 99% of those dying from COVID-19 are unvaccinated. This is not political. It is not a hoax. I got my vaccine right away and you should too. [Tweet]. @TammyDuckworth. https://twitter.com/TammyDuckworth/status/1418258402623557634

    2. 2021-07-22

    3. Please — listen to the experts. 97% of those *hospitalized* from COVID-19 are unvaccinated. Over 99% of those *dying* from COVID-19 are unvaccinated. This is not political. It is not a hoax. I got my vaccine right away and you should too.
    1. The politics of misinformation related to COVID-19 The politicization of COVID-19 Partisanship, demographics and the infodemic problem Report by the Center for Countering Digital Hate (CCDH) on Antivaxxers: modern snake-oil salesmen affect public perception about COVID-19 and vaccines Vested interests affect COVID-19 policies Politicization of COVID-19 vaccines Politicization of delayed rollout of COVID-19 vaccines in the EU Misinformation regarding Covid-19 vaccines in EU countries The politicization of COVID-19 Research Climate denial and covid denial
    2. The politics of misinformation related to COVID-19
    3. Politics of COVID-19 Misinformation. (n.d.). HackMD. Retrieved 4 August 2021, from https://hackmd.io/@scibehC19vax/misinfo_politics

    1. "Among those aged 60-plus, early vaccinators are twice as likely to get infected. For those aged 40-59 early vaccinators are 2.1 times more vulnerable, and among under 39s they are 1.6 more likely to catch the coronavirus."
    2. (((Howard Forman))). (2021, July 26). ‘Among those aged 60-plus, early vaccinators are twice as likely to get infected. For those aged 40-59 early vaccinators are 2.1 times more vulnerable, and among under 39s they are 1.6 more likely to catch the coronavirus.’ https://timesofisrael.com/hmo-those-who-inoculated-early-twice-as-likely-to-catch-covid-as-later-adopters/ [Tweet]. @thehowie. https://twitter.com/thehowie/status/1419647827458789383

    3. 2021-07-26

    1. This is the third installment of a four-part insights report series, published at the start of each month, that provides a summary of the key trends and insights on information disorder related to vaccines over the past 30 days. As First Draft continues to monitor Covid-19 vaccine misinformation around the world, these reports are designed to highlight the most relevant media trends, narratives, emerging threats and data deficits we identify.
    2. Vaccine Misinformation Insights Report: June
    3. 2021-07-01

    4. Vaccine Misinformation Insights Report: June. (n.d.). First Draft. Retrieved 4 August 2021, from https://firstdraftnews.org:443/long-form-article/vaccine-misinformation-insights-report-june/

    1. ReconfigBehSci. (2021, July 28). This tweet is from a US senator who was educated at Princeton and Harvard Law School who won top speaker awards at both the 1992 US and North American debating championships... [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1420457772861194246

    2. 2021-07-28

    3. Democrats are now putting on masks — not because the vaccine suddenly stopped working — they’re wearing masks because it is a virtue signal of submissiveness.
    4. this tweet is from a US senator who was educated at Princeton and Harvard Law School who won top speaker awards at both the 1992 US and North American debating championships...
    1. 10.31234/osf.io/y87rm
    2. Winter, T., Riordan, B., Scarf, D., & Jose, P. (2021). Conspiracy Beliefs and Distrust of Science Predicts Reluctance of Vaccine Uptake of Politically Right-Wing Citizens. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/y87rm

    3. Conspiracy theories quickly flourished as the COVID-19 pandemic emerged and this may have been an underlying factor for some individuals in their reluctance to adhere to lockdown policies. In the present study, we surveyed a community sample of 1358 adults just prior to the COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Aotearoa New Zealand. Our results supported that right-wing individuals tended to have higher hesitancy associated with taking the COVID-19 vaccine. However, we demonstrated that this association, in part, can be explained by a corresponding belief in COVID-19 related conspiracies. Further, this association only emerged when associated with a general distrust in science. Our findings indicated that public interventions seeking to increase trust in science may mitigate right-wing endorsement of conspiracy theories and thus lead to a more unified and positive response to public health behaviours such as vaccination.
    4. Conspiracy Beliefs and Distrust of Science Predicts Reluctance of Vaccine Uptake of Politically Right-Wing Citizens
    5. 2021-07-31

    1. Singer, M. E., Taub, I. B., & Kaelber, D. C. (2021). Risk of Myocarditis from COVID-19 Infection in People Under Age 20: A Population-Based Analysis. MedRxiv, 2021.07.23.21260998. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.07.23.21260998

    2. 2021-07-21

    3. 10.1101/2021.07.23.21260998
    4. Background There have been recent reports of myocarditis (including myocarditis, pericarditis or myopericarditis) as a side-effect of mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines, particularly in young males. Less information is available regarding the risk of myocarditis from COVID-19 infection itself. Such data would be helpful in developing a complete risk-benefit analysis for this population.Methods A de-identified, limited data set was created from the TriNetX Research Network, aggregating electronic health records from 48 mostly large U.S. Healthcare Organizations (HCOs). Inclusion criteria were a first COVID-19 diagnosis during the April 1, 2020 - March 31, 2021 time period, with an outpatient visit 1 month to 2 years before, and another 6 months to 2 years before that. Analysis was stratified by sex and age (12-17, 12-15, 16-19). Patients were excluded for any prior cardiovascular condition. Primary outcome was an encounter diagnosis of myocarditis within 90 days following the index date. Rates of COVID-19 cases and myocarditis not identified in the system were estimated and the results adjusted accordingly. Wilson score intervals were used for 95% confidence intervals due to the very low probability outcome.Results For the 12-17-year-old male cohort, 6/6,846 (0.09%) patients developed myocarditis overall, with an adjusted rate per million of 876 cases (Wilson score interval 402 - 1,911). For the 12-15 and 16-19 male age groups, the adjusted rates per million were 601 (257 - 1,406) and 561 (240 - 1,313).For 12-17-year-old females, there were 3 (0.04%) cases of myocarditis of 7,361 patients. The adjusted rate was 213 (73 - 627) per million cases. For the 12-15- and 16-19-year-old female cohorts the adjusted rates per million cases were 235 (64 - 857) and 708 (359 - 1,397). The outcomes occurred either within 5 days (40.0%) or from 19-82 days (60.0%).Conclusions Myocarditis (or pericarditis or myopericarditis) from primary COVID19 infection occurred at a rate as high as 450 per million in young males. Young males infected with the virus are up 6 times more likely to develop myocarditis as those who have received the vaccine.
    5. Risk of Myocarditis from COVID-19 Infection in People Under Age 20: A Population-Based Analysis
    1. Cower from this virus, or risk serious complications. It’s not a cold.
    2. ReconfigBehSci. (2021, July 28). RT @trishgreenhalgh: ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Cower from this virus, or risk serious complications. It’s not a cold. Https://t.co/CN4hZYQwMw [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1420913883997360131

    3. 2021-07-28

    4. Please avoid a breakthrough infection with this virus. I believe breakthrough infections with Anosmia represent olfactory bulb damage and seeding I can't deny the neurovascular and neurological findings in preclinical models Please wear an N95 mask and do not remove it indoors
    1. ReconfigBehSci. (2021, July 28). RT @trishgreenhalgh: Me too Asha. Https://t.co/smulue9wBs [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1420913990020988929

    2. 2021-07-28

    3. Me too Asha.
    4. Why are we arguing over the same crap over and over?? Doctors have been explaining ad nauseam how and why masks work and why vaccines are safe and effective. At this point anyone “debating” these issues is either stupid or sadistic. I’m just exhausted
    1. Tenbusch, M., Schumacher, S., Vogel, E., Priller, A., Held, J., Steininger, P., Beileke, S., Irrgang, P., Brockhoff, R., Salmanton-García, J., Tinnefeld, K., Mijocevic, H., Schober, K., Bogdan, C., Yazici, S., Knolle, P., Cornely, O. A., Überla, K., Protzer, U., … Wytopil, M. (2021). Heterologous prime–boost vaccination with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and BNT162b2. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00420-5

    2. 2021-07-29

    3. The Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 is associated with a risk for vaccine-induced immune thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome in the range of one to two cases per 100 000 vaccinations, with younger women showing the highest risk.1Greinacher A Thiele T Warkentin TE Weisser K Kyrle PA Eichinger S Thrombotic thrombocytopenia after ChAdOx1 nCov-19 vaccination.N Engl J Med. 2021; 384: 2092-2101Crossref PubMed Scopus (159) Google Scholar,  2Scully M Singh D Lown R et al.Pathologic antibodies to platelet factor 4 after ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccination.N Engl J Med. 2021; 384: 2202-2211Crossref PubMed Google Scholar Additional cases have been reported for the Johnson & Johnson adenoviral vector-based Ad26.CoV2.S COVID-19 vaccine.3MacNeil JR Su JR Broder KR et al.Updated recommendations from the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices for use of the Janssen (Johnson & Johnson) COVID-19 vaccine after reports of thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome among vaccine recipients—United States, April 2021.MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2021; 70: 651-656Crossref PubMed Scopus (0) Google Scholar Vaccine-induced antibodies against platelet factor 4 have been implicated in the pathogenesis.1Greinacher A Thiele T Warkentin TE Weisser K Kyrle PA Eichinger S Thrombotic thrombocytopenia after ChAdOx1 nCov-19 vaccination.N Engl J Med. 2021; 384: 2092-2101Crossref PubMed Scopus (159) Google Scholar,  2Scully M Singh D Lown R et al.Pathologic antibodies to platelet factor 4 after ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccination.N Engl J Med. 2021; 384: 2202-2211Crossref PubMed Google Scholar These antibodies might be amplified by booster vaccination with an adenoviral vector, which prompted recommendations to boost with an mRNA-based vaccine instead, although data on safety and efficacy of heterologous prime–boost regimens are sparse.4
    4. 10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00420-5
    5. Heterologous prime–boost vaccination with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and BNT162b2
    1. Thirty-two deaths from the swine flu vaccine in 1976 halted the programme. Our verdict Full Fact could not find a confirmed number of deaths reported after a swine flu vaccine in 1976, but reports suggest that a number of the deaths could not be directly linked with the vaccine. The rollout was halted because of a number of reports of Guillain-Barré syndrome, and the fact the swine flu cases never reached pandemic levels.
    2. Comparisons between deaths reported after swine flu and Covid-19 vaccines are misleading
    3. Comparisons between deaths reported after swine flu and Covid-19 vaccines are misleading. (15:28:48.704848+00:00). Full Fact. https://fullfact.org/online/swine-flu-vaccine-1976-covid/

    4. 2021-07-30

    1. 2021-07-30

    2. 10.1038/s41598-021-95025-3
    3. Vaccines are thought to be the best available solution for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, the emergence of vaccine-resistant strains may come too rapidly for current vaccine developments to alleviate the health, economic and social consequences of the pandemic. To quantify and characterize the risk of such a scenario, we created a SIR-derived model with initial stochastic dynamics of the vaccine-resistant strain to study the probability of its emergence and establishment. Using parameters realistically resembling SARS-CoV-2 transmission, we model a wave-like pattern of the pandemic and consider the impact of the rate of vaccination and the strength of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures on the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. As expected, we found that a fast rate of vaccination decreases the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. Counterintuitively, when a relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions happened at a time when most individuals of the population have already been vaccinated the probability of emergence of a resistant strain was greatly increased. Consequently, we show that a period of transmission reduction close to the end of the vaccination campaign can substantially reduce the probability of resistant strain establishment. Our results suggest that policymakers and individuals should consider maintaining non-pharmaceutical interventions and transmission-reducing behaviours throughout the entire vaccination period.
    4. Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains
    5. Rella, S. A., Kulikova, Y. A., Dermitzakis, E. T., & Kondrashov, F. A. (2021). Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains. Scientific Reports, 11(1), 15729. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-95025-3

    1. Taquet, M., Husain, M., Geddes, J. R., Luciano, S., & Harrison, P. J. (2021). Cerebral venous thrombosis and portal vein thrombosis: A retrospective cohort study of 537,913 COVID-19 cases. MedRxiv, 2021.04.27.21256153. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.04.27.21256153

    2. 10.1101/2021.04.27.21256153
    3. Objectives To estimate the absolute risk of cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) and portal vein thrombosis (PVT) in the two weeks following a diagnosis of COVID-19, and to assess the relative risks (RR) compared to influenza or the administration of an mRNA vaccine against COVID-19.Design Retrospective cohort study based on an electronic health records networkSetting Linked records between primary and secondary care centres within 59 healthcare organisations, primarily in the USAParticipants All patients with a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 between January 20, 2020 and March 25, 2021 were included (N=537,913, mean [SD] age: 46.2 [21.4] years; 54.9% females). Cohorts (matched for age, sex, and race) of participants diagnosed with influenza (N=392,424) or receiving the BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 vaccine (N=366,869) were used for comparison.Main outcome measures Diagnosis of CVT (ICD-10 code I67.6) or PVT (ICD-10 code I81) within 2 weeks after a diagnosis of COVID-19.Results The incidence of CVT after COVID-19 diagnosis was 42.8 per million people (95% CI 28.5–64.2) including 35.3 per million (95% CI 22.6–55.2) first diagnoses. This was significantly higher than the CVT incidence in a matched cohort of patients with influenza (RR=3.83, 95% CI 1.56–9.41, P<0.001) and people who received an mRNA vaccine (RR=6.67, 95% CI 1.98–22.43, P<0.001). The incidence of PVT after COVID-19 diagnosis was 392.3 per million people (95% CI 342.8–448.9) including 175.0 per million (95% CI 143.0–214.1) first diagnoses. This was significantly higher than the PVT incidence in a matched cohort of patients with influenza (RR=1.39, 95% CI 1.06–1.83, P=0.02) and people who received an mRNA vaccine (RR=7.40, 95% CI 4.87–11.24, P<0.001). Mortality after CVT and PVT was 17.4% and 19.9% respectively.Conclusions The incidence of CVT and PVT is significantly increased after COVID-19. The data highlight the risk of serious thrombotic events in COVID-19 and can help contextualize the risks and benefits of vaccination in this regard.
    4. Cerebral venous thrombosis and portal vein thrombosis: a retrospective cohort study of 537,913 COVID-19 cases
    5. 2021-05-11

    1. Smith, M. J., Ahmad, A., Arawi, T., Dawson, A., Emanuel, E. J., Garani-Papadatos, T., Ghimire, P., Iliyasu, Z., Lei, R., Mastroleo, I., Mathur, R., Okeibunor, J., Parker, M., Saenz, C., Thomé, B., Upshur, R. E. G., & Voo, T. C. (2021). Top five ethical lessons of COVID-19 that the world must learn. Wellcome Open Research, 6, 17. https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16568.1

    2. 2021-01-29

    3. 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16568.1
    4. As the world reflects upon one year since the first cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and prepare for and experience surges in cases, it is important to identify the most crucial ethical issues that might lie ahead so that countries are able to plan accordingly. Some ethical issues are rather obvious to predict, such as the ethical issues surrounding the use of immunity certificates, contact tracing, and the fair allocation of vaccines globally. Yet, the most significant ethical challenge that the world must address in the next year and beyond is to ensure that we learn the ethical lessons of the first year of this pandemic. Learning from our collective experiences thus far constitutes our greatest moral obligation. Appreciating that decision-making in the context of a pandemic is constrained by unprecedented complexity and uncertainty, beginning in June 2020, an international group of 17 experts in bioethics spanning 15 countries (including low-, middle-, and high-income countries) met virtually to identify what we considered to be the most significant ethical challenges and accompanying lessons faced thus far in the COVID-19 pandemic. Once collected, the group met over the course of several virtual meetings to identify challenges and lessons that are analytically distinct in order to identify common ethical themes under which different challenges and lessons could be grouped. The result, described in this paper, is what this expert group consider to be the top five ethical lessons from the initial experience with COVID-19 that must be learned.
    5. Top five ethical lessons of COVID-19 that the world must learn
  4. Jul 2021
    1. Understanding the causes and consequences of the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern is crucial to pandemic control yet difficult to achieve, as they arise in the context of variable human behavior and immunity. We investigate the spatial invasion dynamics of lineage B.1.1.7 by jointly analyzing UK human mobility, virus genomes, and community-based PCR data. We identify a multi-stage spatial invasion process in which early B.1.1.7 growth rates were associated with mobility and asymmetric lineage export from a dominant source location, enhancing the effects of B.1.1.7’s increased intrinsic transmissibility. We further explore how B.1.1.7 spread was shaped by non-pharmaceutical interventions and spatial variation in previous attack rates. Our findings show that careful accounting of the behavioral and epidemiological context within which variants of concern emerge is necessary to interpret correctly their observed relative growth rates.
    2. 10.1126/science.abj0113
    3. Spatiotemporal invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 emergence
    4. 2021-07-22

    5. Kraemer, M. U. G., Hill, V., Ruis, C., Dellicour, S., Bajaj, S., McCrone, J. T., Baele, G., Parag, K. V., Battle, A. L., Gutierrez, B., Jackson, B., Colquhoun, R., O’Toole, Á., Klein, B., Vespignani, A., Consortium‡, T. C.-19 G. U. (CoG-U., Volz, E., Faria, N. R., Aanensen, D., … Pybus, O. G. (2021). Spatiotemporal invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 emergence. Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abj0113