ReconfigBehSci on Twitter: ‘RT @Arrianna_Planey: More people have died of COVID in 2021 than in 2020. How are we in “a better place”? Https://t.co/Rc0Swmr9az’ / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved 9 August 2021, from https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1424464272713666561

News, A. B. C. “Protests against Mandated COVID-19 Vaccines Pop up across US.” ABC News. Accessed August 9, 2021. https://abcnews.go.com/Health/live-updates/covid-delta-variant/?id=79213051.

Barnard-Mayers, E. J. M., Ruby. (2021, August 6). How We’ll Know It’s Finally Time to Stop Masking. Slate Magazine. https://slate.com/technology/2021/08/delta-variant-covid-masks-vaccines-boosters.html

Mandavilli, A. (2021, August 6). New data suggest J. & J. vaccine works against Delta and recipients don’t need a booster shot. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/06/science/johnson-delta-vaccine-booster.html

Fisman, D. N., & Tuite, A. R. (2021). Progressive Increase in Virulence of Novel SARS-CoV-2 Variants in Ontario, Canada. MedRxiv, 2021.07.05.21260050. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.07.05.21260050

Covid-19 news: Pregnant women in England urged to get vaccinated | New Scientist. (n.d.). Retrieved August 4, 2021, from https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-pregnant-women-in-england-urged-to-get-vaccinated/

Covid Explodes in Cancun, Los Cabos as New Wave Hits Mexico. (2021, July 23). Bloomberg.Com. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-23/covid-explodes-in-cancun-and-los-cabos-as-third-wave-hits-mexico

Facebook, Twitter, options, S. more sharing, Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, Email, URLCopied!, C. L., & Print. (2021, July 19). Vaccines are incredibly effective against Delta variant. So why do we need to wear masks indoors? Los Angeles Times. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-07-19/covid-vaccines-work-why-is-la-mask-mandate-necessary

Justin Baragona on Twitter: “There seems to be a concerted effort today by Fox’s daytime news shows to promote the vaccines to its audience. Dr. Marc Siegel says ‘the Delta variant needs to be a wake-up call to get vaccinated.’ Anchor John Roberts then directs viewers to the government vaccine website. Https://t.co/T5b21nXCfe” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved August 4, 2021, from https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1417178420950220811

John Burn-Murdoch. (2021, May 27). NEW: B.1617.2 is fuelling a third wave in the UK, with not only cases but also hospital admissions rising. Vaccines will make this wave different to those that have come before, but it remains a concern, and one that other countries will soon face. Thread on everything we know: Https://t.co/4825qOqgrl [Tweet]. @jburnmurdoch. https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1397995388267810818

Hopes UK trial will allay pregnant women’s Covid vaccine concerns. (2021, August 3). The Guardian. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/03/hopes-uk-trial-will-allay-pregnant-womens-covid-vaccine-concerns

Lopez Bernal, Jamie, Nick Andrews, Charlotte Gower, Eileen Gallagher, Ruth Simmons, Simon Thelwall, Julia Stowe, et al. “Effectiveness of Covid-19 Vaccines against the B.1.617.2 (Delta) Variant.” New England Journal of Medicine 0, no. 0 (July 21, 2021): null. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891.

Zeke Emanuel on Twitter: “Masks are off, theaters and indoor dining are back: Life seems to be returning to normal. But the highly transmissible Delta variant is spreading quickly, & we aren’t even halfway to a fully vaccinated population. It’s time for employer vaccine mandates. Https://t.co/34UArFfHN5” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved August 1, 2021, from https://twitter.com/ZekeEmanuel/status/1418266496749428737?s=20

Partisanship Isn’t The Only Reason Why So Many Americans Remain Unvaccinated | FiveThirtyEight. (n.d.). Retrieved August 1, 2021, from https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/partisanship-isnt-the-only-reason-why-so-many-americans-remain-unvaccinated/

Thushan de Silva on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved 29 July 2021, from https://twitter.com/Thushan_deSilva/status/1418511974435115011

Dvir Aran. (2021, July 27). You’ve probably seen reports from Israel on low vaccine effectiveness in this wave. Is it because of Delta? Waning immunity? We think the reason is mostly that we got the denominator wrong. Https://t.co/yloh5Vo9Xi [Tweet]. @dvir_a. https://twitter.com/dvir_a/status/1420059124700700677

Juliet Pulliam, PhD. (2021, June 28). My take (3/4): The last 15 months have been brutal for those of us in SA, as in most of the world. The next few months will continue to try us. Vaccination brings our best hope of making COVID manageable. [Tweet]. @SACEMAdirector. https://twitter.com/SACEMAdirector/status/1409392605901864962

Elisabeth Mahase. (2021, July 26). At least 6 weeks between Pfizer vaccine doses = higher neutralising antibody levels (than a 3-4 wk interval) For those with the delta variant, antibody levels were 2.3-fold higher with the longer interval Preprint from @pitchstudy @bmjlatest https://t.co/E3yOTqNgpa [Tweet]. @emahase. https://twitter.com/emahase_/status/1419604658344112130

Mandavilli, Apoorva. “J.&J. Vaccine May Be Less Effective Against Delta, Study Suggests.” The New York Times, July 20, 2021, sec. Health. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/20/health/coronavirus-johnson-vaccine-delta.html.

Tada, Takuya, Hao Zhou, Marie I. Samanovic, Belinda M. Dcosta, Amber Cornelius, Mark J. Mulligan, and Nathaniel R. Landau. “Comparison of Neutralizing Antibody Titers Elicited by MRNA and Adenoviral Vector Vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 Variants.” BioRxiv, July 19, 2021, 2021.07.19.452771. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.07.19.452771.

Barouch, Dan H., Kathryn E. Stephenson, Jerald Sadoff, Jingyou Yu, Aiquan Chang, Makda Gebre, Katherine McMahan, et al. “Durable Humoral and Cellular Immune Responses 8 Months after Ad26.COV2.S Vaccination.” New England Journal of Medicine 0, no. 0 (July 14, 2021): null. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMc2108829.

the Guardian. “Australian Medical Association Says NSW Covid Lockdown Failing and Urges Change to AstraZeneca Advice,” July 23, 2021. http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/23/australian-medical-association-says-nsw-covid-lockdown-failing-and-urges-change-to-astrazeneca-advice.

Bellafante, Ginia. “How to Survive a Plague, Part 2.” The New York Times, July 23, 2021, sec. New York. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/23/nyregion/Covid-Delta-Vaccination-AIDS.html.

the Guardian. “‘It’s Too Late’: US Doctor Says Dying Patients Begging for Covid Vaccine,” July 22, 2021. http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jul/22/us-coronavirus-covid-unvaccinated-hospital-rates-vaccines.

The Jerusalem Post | JPost.com. “Israel Might Soon Decide to Give Booster to the Elderly.” Accessed July 28, 2021. https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/coronavirus-in-israel-1398-new-cases-208-percent-of-tests-return-positive-674917.

“Covid-19: CDC Brings Back Indoor Mask Guidance for Virus Hot Spots.” BBC News, July 27, 2021, sec. US & Canada. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-57989777.

SF bar alliance announces policy requiring proof of vaccination. (n.d.). Retrieved July 28, 2021, from https://www.sfgate.com/food/article/bar-alliance-covid-test-vaccination-proof-required-16340670.php

Why are fully vaccinated people testing positive for Covid? | Financial Times. (n.d.). Retrieved July 28, 2021, from https://www.ft.com/content/0f11b219-0f1b-420e-8188-6651d1e749ff

Is Covid Coming Back 2021? Delta Variant, New Global Hotspots Are Reality Check—Bloomberg. (n.d.). Retrieved July 28, 2021, from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-27/is-covid-coming-back-2021-delta-variant-new-global-hotspots-are-reality-check?srnd=premium-europe&sref=jjXJRDFv

ReconfigBehSci on Twitter: ‘RT @EricTopol: Summed up well by @MollyJongFast, especially for delta, the most challenging one so far https://t.co/cSGekr2q2S’ / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved 11 June 2021, from https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1403057875254054914

Kraemer, M. U. G., Hill, V., Ruis, C., Dellicour, S., Bajaj, S., McCrone, J. T., Baele, G., Parag, K. V., Battle, A. L., Gutierrez, B., Jackson, B., Colquhoun, R., O’Toole, Á., Klein, B., Vespignani, A., Consortium‡, T. C.-19 G. U. (CoG-U., Volz, E., Faria, N. R., Aanensen, D., … Pybus, O. G. (2021). Spatiotemporal invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 emergence. Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abj0113

Reardon, S. (2021). How the Delta variant achieves its ultrafast spread. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-01986-w

Analysis: Pfizer/BioNTech bid for booster doses premature, more data needed -experts | Reuters. (n.d.). Retrieved July 19, 2021, from https://www.reuters.com/world/pfizerbiontech-bid-booster-doses-premature-more-data-needed-experts-2021-07-12/

Indonesia overtakes India to become Asia’s COVID epicenter. (n.d.). Nikkei Asia. Retrieved 19 July 2021, from https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/Indonesia-overtakes-India-to-become-Asia-s-COVID-epicenter

More than 1,000 Israelis test positive for COVID - The Jerusalem Post. (n.d.). Retrieved July 18, 2021, from https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/for-first-time-since-march-855-new-coronavirus-cases-in-israel-674084

Baker, N., & Ball, P. (2021). Coronapod: Does England’s COVID strategy risk breeding deadly variants? Nature, d41586-021-01977–x. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-01977-x

Adam Kucharski on Twitter: “As Delta spreads, cases starting to rise again across Europe... Https://t.co/mwyFVlUPVY” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved July 12, 2021, from https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1412498377619673095

David Fisman. (2021, July 8). Fascinating new preprint on delta vs older variants in well-investigated outbreaks in China. Viral load for delta is 3 log higher, and latent period is shorter too (estimate is 4 days vs 6 days). This may explain much higher R estimates which may be due to elevated viral load [Tweet]. @DFisman. https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1413126886570536963

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2021-07-06/what-the-delta-variant-means-for-unvaccinated-kids

Delta variant said to be far more widespread than federal estimates—POLITICO. (n.d.). Retrieved July 8, 2021, from https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/08/delta-coronavirus-variant-widespread-498787?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/991135/3_June_2021_Risk_assessment_for_SARS-CoV-2_variant_DELTA.pdf. (2021). Retrieved 5 July 2021, from https://t.co/u3sOVk65Zi?amp=1

(2021). Retrieved 5 July 2021, from https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/991343/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_14.pdf

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Ranney, D. M. R., M.Ph, M. D., Physician, I. a P., Medicine, A. P. of E., & GetUsPPE, public health at B. U. S. is co-founder of. (n.d.). Opinion | The delta variant highlights longer-term dangers of American social division. NBC News. Retrieved 2 July 2021, from https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/covid-delta-variant-hints-bigger-problem-america-ncna1272673

Adam Kucharski on Twitter: “Imagine if we were now facing the Delta variant without widely available vaccines. Because that’s the situation many, many countries are currently in. Https://t.co/zaJzSALCj2” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved July 2, 2021, from https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1410163303876280321

Yong, E. (2021, July 1). The 3 Simple Rules That Underscore the Danger of Delta. The Atlantic. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/07/3-principles-now-define-pandemic/619336/

Can we now live with the coronavirus? There are still no easy answers | Devi Sridhar. (2021, July 1). The Guardian. http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/01/live-with-coronavirus-delta-variant-virus-children

Living normally, with Covid-19: Task force ministers on how S’pore is drawing road map for new normal, Opinion News & Top Stories—The Straits Times. (n.d.). Retrieved June 29, 2021, from https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/living-normally-with-covid-19

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Why most people who now die with Covid in England have had a vaccination | David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters | The Guardian. (n.d.). Retrieved June 28, 2021, from https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/commentisfree/2021/jun/27/why-most-people-who-now-die-with-covid-have-been-vaccinated?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

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Jeffrey Ely on Twitter: “The base-rate fallacy is about to become a daily nuisance when it comes to processing outbreak data in highly vaccinated societies. Here’s a cautionary tale.” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved June 28, 2021, from https://twitter.com/Jeffely/status/1408500890999328770

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Eric Topol on Twitter: “As the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) becomes dominant throughout the world, there are 2 patterns emerging: —Countries w/ low vaccination rates are seeing both case and fatality rates increase—Countries w/ high vaccination rate: Some case increase and minimal to no fatality increase https://t.co/sSE4RlSeUJ” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved June 28, 2021, from https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1408195243279667204

Bolze, A., Cirulli, E. T., Luo, S., White, S., Cassens, T., Jacobs, S., Nguyen, J., Ramirez, J. M., Sandoval, E., Wang, X., Wong, D., Becker, D., Laurent, M., Lu, J. T., Isaksson, M., Washington, N. L., & Lee, W. (2021). Rapid displacement of SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 by B.1.617.2 and P.1 in the United States [Preprint]. Infectious Diseases (except HIV/AIDS). https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.06.20.21259195

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the Guardian. “Vaccines Are Not Magic Bullets – We’ll Still Have to Take Precautions | Zania Stamataki,” June 22, 2021. http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/22/viruses-wearing-mask-england-vaccines.

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Liverpool, M. L. P., Clare Wilson, Jessica Hamzelou, Sam Wong, Graham Lawton, Adam Vaughan, Conrad Quilty-Harper and Layal. (n.d.). Covid-19 news: Delta variant now causing 91 per cent of UK cases. New Scientist. Retrieved 11 June 2021, from https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-delta-variant-now-causing-91-per-cent-of-uk-cases/

Eric Topol on Twitter: “New reports on transmissibility and immune evasiveness for delta (B.1.617.2) lead to an update of this Table of the variants and key properties https://t.co/nGzEa39eF4” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved June 5, 2021, from https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1400590583274426370

What the heck?

I have noticed this.

I think the notecards are pretty dumb. How do you even know who wrote them?

Finally, yay! No. 1 Lounge was horrible!

I think it's cool!

This would be amazing!

The Beaufort Delta is on region in the Arctic. It is situated between the Yukon Territory and Nunavut, and with the Arctic Ocean to its North. Inuvik is a town in the Beaufort Delta. It is commonly considered the hub of the area. The Beaufort Deltas population is almost one fifth of the whole population of the North West Territory, and shares 12% of the whole territory’s income. The towns are mostly connected by a few winter roads, with one major road worth of mentioning being the Dempster Highway Connection. The Dempster Highway is important because it can be navigated in all weather and thus is a likely route used by tourists to get to the region. Without it, the area would be much less accessible. Many Europeans travel to the region as tourists. Because of the rising levels of tourists, facilities and accommodations for the tourists are being financed. The Mackenzie Mountains, the Delta alone, and the Arctic Ocean landscape are some of the most popular natural landmarks that tourists flock to see. The midnight sun is also a big hit for visitors of the region. In terms of industry, the region has a strong gas market. Projects such as the Ikhil Gas Project help the region get power by providing electricity. The Mackenzie Gas Project is a project that is currently being evaluated for development. Fur trade is also sometimes still practiced in the region. Transportation and public administration are also sectors that can be profitable for the region.

ITI. “Beaufort Delta”. Last modified unknown. http://www.iti.gov.nt.ca/en/beaufort-delta

Kugmallit Bay is a a bay located in Northwestern Territories of Canada, roughly 4000km away from Ottawa. Near the eastern border of Alaska, Kugmallit Bay is the end destination for the eastern brach of the largest river in the North American Arctic, the Mackenzie River. With an average yearly temperature of -8°C, the Kugmallit Bay is often covered by fast ice, or landfast ice. In August of 2010, part of Kugmallit Bay was portioned off as part of the Tarium Niryutait Marine Protected Area. This area covers roughly 1800 square kilometers and protects areas of the Mackenzie River Delta as well as estuaries in the Beaufort Sea. Through collaborative efforts by Fisheries and Oceans Canada, the Inuvialuit people, private industry and shareholders, and the Canadian government the Tarium Niryutait MPA was created. The MPA is part of Canada’s expanding network of protected ocean areas, it also plays an important role in fulfilling Canada’s commitments to managing Canada’s oceans resources.

Citations

"Tarium Niryutait Marine Protected Area." Beaufort Sea Partnership. N.p., n.d. Web.

Knut Lang (1896-1964) was a Scandinavian man who settled in the Mackenzie Delta from the 1936-1964. He operated a trading post that serviced fur trappers (mostly muskrat), both Inuit and non-Inuit. He was well liked and known for his generosity, eventually becoming elected to the territorial council of the northwest territories from 1957-1964 (Gwich'in Social & Cultural Institute).

Knut is recognized as suggesting the name Inuvik for the town on the eastern edge of the delta. Inuvik later became administrative center of the region (Gwich'in Social & Cultural Institute) . In the 1950's and 1960's the Canadian government began to entertain the idea of indigenous government (Assembly.gov.nt.ca) . Knut saw the most direct path towards self governance of the northwest territory lay by dividing the northwest territory into an Inuit dominated eastern Arctic and western Arctic comprised of Inuvialuit, Métis, and Dene. This culminated in the creation of the nunavut territory in 1999 (Assembly.gov.nt.ca).

1. Gwich'in Social & Cultural Institute,. Nomination Form For Territorial Historic Sites:Knut Lang's Place. Fort McPherson, NWT: Gwich'in Social & Cultural Institute, 2007. Web. 7 Mar. 2017. (http://gwichin.ca/sites/default/files/gsci_benson_2007_nomination_form_knut_langs_place.pdf )

2."Creation Of A New Northwest Territories". Assembly.gov.nt.ca. N.p., 2014. Web. 7 Mar. 2017. (http://www.assembly.gov.nt.ca/visitors/creation-new-nwt )

Very cool.

Good to know.

This is good to know.

Yep, but can't depend on getting Diamond year after year!

I have never experienced this before.

The margin seems to be manually set by the creator in the loss function. In the sample code, the margin is 1-- so the incorrect class has to be scored lower than the correct class by 1.

How is this margin determined? It seems like one would have to know the magnitude of the scores beforehand.

Diving deeper, is the scoring magnitude always the same if the parameters are normalized by their average and scaled to be between 0 and 1? (or -1 and -1... not sure of the correct scaling implementation)

Coming back to the topic -- is this 'minimum margin' or delta a tune-able parameter?

What effects do we see on the model by adjusting this parameter?

What are best and worst case scenarios of playing with this parameter?