10.3386/w27160

We analyze firm-level analyst forecasts during the COVID crisis. First, we describe expectations dynamics about future corporate earnings. Downward revisions have been sharp, mostly focused on 2020, 2021 and 2022, but much less drastic than the lower bound estimated by Gormsen and Koijen (2020). Analyst forecasts do not exhibit evidence of over-reaction: As of mid-May, forecasts over 2020 earnings have progressively been reduced by 16%. Longer-run forecasts, as well as expected “Long-Term Growth” have reacted much less than short-run forecasts, and feature less disagreement. Second, we ask how much discount rate changes explain market dynamics, in an exercise similar to Shiller (1981). Given forecast revisions and price movements, we estimate an implicit discount rate going from 10% in mid-February, to 13% at the end of March, back down to their initial level in mid-May. We then decompose discount rate changes into three factors: changes in unlevered asset risk premium (0%), increased leverage (+1%) and interest rate reduction (-1%). Overall, analyst forecast revisions explain all of the decrease in equity values between January 2020 and mid May 2020, but they do not explain shorter term movements.

Earnings Expectations in the COVID Crisis

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To understand how best to combat COVID-19, we must understand how deadly is the disease. There is a substantial debate in the epidemiological lit- erature as to whether the fatality rate is 1% or 0.1% or somewhere in between. In this note, I use an SIR model to examine why it is difficult to estimate the fatality rate from the disease and how long we might have to wait to resolve this question absent a large-scale randomized testing program. I focus on un- certainty over the joint distribution of the fatality rate and the initial number of active cases at the start of the epidemic around January 15, 2020. I show how the model with a high initial number of active cases and a low fatality rate gives the same predictions for the evolution of the number of deaths in the early stages of the pandemic as the same model with a low initial number of active cases and a high fatality rate. The problem of distinguishing these two parameterizations of the model becomes more severe in the presence of effective mitigation measures. As discussed by many, this uncertainty could be resolved now with large-scale randomized testing.

How Deadly Is COVID-19? Understanding The Difficulties With Estimation Of Its Fatality Rate

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We present a comprehensive analysis of the performance and flows of U.S. actively-managed equity mutual funds during the COVID-19 crisis of 2020. We find that most active funds underperform passive benchmarks during the crisis, contradicting a popular hypothesis. Funds with high sustainability ratings perform well, as do funds with high star ratings. Fund outflows largely extend pre-crisis trends. Investors favor funds that apply exclusion criteria and funds with high sustainability ratings, especially environmental ones. Our finding that investors remain focused on sustainability during this major crisis suggests they view sustainability as a necessity rather than a luxury good.

Mutual Fund Performance and Flows During the COVID-19 Crisis

We use data on deaths in New York City, Madrid, Stockholm, and other world cities as well as in various U.S. states and various countries and regions to estimate a standard epidemiological model of COVID-19. We allow for a time-varying contact rate in order to capture behavioral and policy-induced changes associated with social distancing. We simulate the model forward to consider possible futures for various countries, states, and cities, including the potential impact of herd immunity on re-opening. Our current baselinemortality rate (IFR) is assumed to be 1.0% but we recognize there is substantial uncertainty about this number. Our model fits the death data equally well with alternative mortality rates of 0.5% or 1.2%, so this parameter is unidentified in our data. However, its value matters enormously for the extent to which various places can relax social distancing without spurring a resurgence of deaths.

10.3386/w27128

Estimating and Simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19 for Many Countries, States, and Cities

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We study optimal dynamic lockdowns against Covid-19 within a commuting network. Our framework integrates canonical spatial epidemiology and trade models, and is applied to cities with varying initial viral spread: Seoul, Daegu and NYC-Metro. Spatial lockdowns achieve substantially smaller income losses than uniform lockdowns, and are not easily approximated by simple centrality-based rules. In NYM and Daegu—with large initial shocks—the optimal lockdown restricts inflows to central districts before gradual relaxation, while in Seoul it imposes low temporal but large spatial variation. Actual commuting responses were too weak in central locations in Daegu and NYM, and too strong across Seoul.

Optimal Lockdown in a Commuting Network

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This paper examines the determinants of social distancing during the COVID-19 epidemic. We classify state and local government actions, and we study multiple proxies for social distancing based on data from smart devices. Mobility fell substantially in all states, even ones that have not adopted major distancing mandates. There is little evidence, for example, that stay-at-home mandates induced distancing. In contrast, early and information-focused actions have had bigger effects. Event studies show that first case announcements, emergency declarations, and school closures reduced mobility by 1-5% after 5 days and 7-45% after 20 days. Between March 1 and April 11, average time spent at home grew from 9.1 hours to 13.9 hours. We find, for example, that without state emergency declarations, event study estimates imply that hours at home would have been 11.3 hours in April, suggesting that 55% of the growth comes from emergency declarations and 45% comes from secular (non-policy) trends. State and local government actions induced changes in mobility on top of a large response across all states to the prevailing knowledge of public health risks. Early state policies conveyed information about the epidemic, suggesting that even the policy response mainly operates through a voluntary channel.

Tracking Public and Private Responses to the COVID-19 Epidemic: Evidence from State and Local Government Actions

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The COVID-19 epidemic in emerging markets risks a combined health, economic, and debt crisis. We integrate a standard epidemiology model into a sovereign default model and study how default risk impacts the ability of these countries to respond to the epidemic. Lockdown policies are useful for alleviating the health crisis but they carry large economic costs and can generate costly and prolonged debt crises. The possibility of lockdown induced debt crises in turn results in less aggressive lockdowns and a more severe health crisis. We find that the social value of debt relief can be substantial because it can prevent the debt crisis and can save lives.

Deadly Debt Crises: COVID-19 in Emerging Markets

10.31234/osf.io/s65ux

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to changes in people’s private and public lives that are unprecedented in modern history. However, little is known about the differential psychological consequences of restrictions that have been imposed to fight the pandemic. In a large and diverse German sample (N = 1,320), we examined how individual differences in psychological consequences of the pandemic (perceived restrictiveness of government-supported measures; global pandemic-related appraisals; subjective well-being) were associated with a broad set of faceted personality traits (Big Five, Honesty-Humility, Dark Triad). Facets of Extraversion, Neuroticism, and Openness were among the strongest and most important predictors of psychological outcomes, even after controlling for basic socio-demographic variables (gender, age). These findings suggest that psychological consequences of the pandemic depend on personality and thus add to the growing literature on the importance of considering individual differences in crisis situations.

Who is impacted? Personality predicts individual differences in psychological consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany

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Mental health research community needs to collect high-quality data to understand the effects of COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdown measures in adults with mental disorders. Our aims were to document the day-to-day patterns of depressive symptoms and sleep parameters, and explore the dynamic network structure of measured depressive symptoms during the first four weeks of strict lockdown in two women with major depressive disorder. Data from ecological momentary assessments have been analyzed with idiographic models. In both cases, the self-reported depressive symptoms and core affects fluctuated during the lowckdown. All measured depressive symptoms were not exacerbated and showed different patterns of variation. Psychomotor retardation and level of arousal played a prominent role in the dynamic symptom networks. These case studies contribute to our understanding of the lockdown effects on depressive symptoms and affective experiences, and highlight the need of person-centered mental health care to help people with major depressive disorder during a lockdown.

Dynamic patterns of depressive symptoms and sleep during the first month of strict lockdown in two women with major depressive disorder

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Intensified anxiety responses and even symptoms of post-traumatic stress are commonly observed under quarantine conditions. In this study, the effects on fear, anxiety and wellbeing of the recent pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 were investigated in a sample of otherwise healthy Hungarians. Taking the family as a microsystem, differences in gender, age, family relationships and time spent in isolation were the main focus of this investigation. 346 parent-child dyads were examined; the children were 11-17 years of age. Standard psychological questionnaires (Perceived Stress Scale, WHO Wellbeing Index), and an open question test (the Metamorphosis test) were used, and the results analysed with the aid of basic statistical methods. Stress levels and wellbeing displayed a significant negative correlation with each other in both parents and children. Parental stress and levels of wellbeing had a weak but significant impact on the wellbeing of their children. Among the demographic variables examined, none of them was found to explain the wellbeing or stress level of parents. Natural catastrophes, such as pandemics, create a stressful social environment for parents, and therefore directly impact the psychological wellbeing of all family members.

Examining perceptions of stress, wellbeing and fear among Hungarian adolescents and their parents under lockdown during the COVID-19 pandemic

10.31234/osf.io/zkfyb

The outbreak of a global pandemic such as COVID-19 poses a challenge for societies across the world. Lacking both vaccination and medical treatment, the only way to combat the spread of a virus in its early stages are behavioral measures, particularly physical distancing behavior. The present work proposes three pillars of individuals’ engagement in physical distancing: anxiety, prosociality, and rule compliance. In a large (N = 1,504), pre-registered study among German adults, we studied both situation-specific tendencies and stable personality traits that are theoretically associated with these pillars in relation to self-reported physical distancing behavior and underlying motives. Results supported the importance of each of the proposed pillars for physical distancing behavior. That is, for each pillar, we found (some) relations of the corresponding tendencies and personality traits with physical distancing (motives) as expected. Overall, the project provides a comprehensive picture of physical distancing behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Three pillars of physical distancing: Anxiety, prosociality, and rule compliance during the COVID-19-pandemic

10.31234/osf.io/95ujm

Background. By March 10th, 2020, the Italian Government has ordered a national lockdown to limit viral transmission of COVID-19 infection, which establishes home confinement, movement restriction, home (smart) working, and temporary closure of non-essential businesses and schools of every order and degree. The current study investigated how these restrictive measures impacted sleep quality, timing, and psychological difficulties in school-age children and their mothers during the lockdown. Methods. Using an online survey, 299 mothers reported their sleep habits (timing, quality, quantity), time experience, and psychological difficulties (emotional and behavioral) and of those of their children (6-10 yrs old) during the home confinement and, retrospectively, before the lockdown. Results. During the lockdown, children showed a marked delay in sleep timing, i.e., later bedtime and wake time, and a mild worsening in sleep quality. They were less prone to respect the daily routines and to keep track of the passage of time. We also observe increased emotional, conduct, and hyperactive symptoms, and the increase in these psychological difficulties was predicted by the change in sleep quality, boredom, and mothers’ psychological difficulties. Also, mothers showed a delayed sleep timing and worsening of sleep quality during the lockdown, which degree varied depending on their working conditions. Mothers who kept working regularly outside their home during the lockdown reported a more regular sleep pattern, whereas mothers who stopped working showed more emotional symptoms and relevant changes in their time perception. Conclusions. Overall, given the evidence of the adverse behavioral and psychological impact of home confinement and social restrictions, effective measures are needed to be in place to mitigate their long-term effects on children and their mothers, especially those in the smart working condition.

Sleep quality, timing, and psychological difficulties in Italian school-age children and their mothers during COVID-19 lockdown

10.31234/osf.io/ndgkj

Background: SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has spurred scientific production in diverse fields of knowledge, including mental health. Yet, the quality of current research may be challenged by the urgent need to provide immediate results to understand and alleviate the consequences of the pandemic. This systematic review aims to examine compliance with basic methodological quality criteria and open science practices on the mental health effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: A systematic search was performed using PubMed and Scopus databases on the 13th of May. Empirical studies, published in peer-reviewed journals in English, between February and May 2020, were included. The dependent variable(s) required to be quantitative and related to mental health. Exclusion criteria included clinical pharmacological trials, and studies using psychophysiological or biological recordings. The study protocol was previously pre-registered in https://osf.io/bk3gw/. Findings: Twenty-eight studies were identified. More than 75% met the requirements related to reporting key methodological and statistical information. However, 89.3% used convenience samples and 92.86% lacked of a priori power analysis. There was low compliance with open science recommendations, such as pre-registration of studies (0%) and availability of databases (3.57%), which raise concerns about the validity, generalisability, and reproducibility of the findings. Interpretation: While the importance of offering rapid evidence-based responses to mitigate mental health problems stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic is undeniable, it should not be done at the expense of sacrificing scientific rigor. The results of this study may stimulate researchers and funding agencies to try to orchestrate efforts and resources and follow standard codes of good science.

The quality of research on mental health effects of the COVID-19 pandemic: A note of caution after a systematic review

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The COVID-19 pandemic represents a global health crisis, making compliance with governmental policies and public health advice crucial in decreasing transmission rates. At the same time, we are faced with the rapid spread of COVID-19 conspiracy theories. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the predictive power of COVID-19 conspiracy theories in explaining the level of compliance with official COVID-19 guidelines, by including mediating roles of pseudoscientific information beliefs and trust in government officials. A total of 1882 participants provided sociodemographic information and completed all measures in the study. Multiple mediation analysis revealed a direct negative effect of COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs on the compliance with the preventive measures. In addition, conspiracy beliefs were indirectly associated with compliance via trust in government officials. The present study builds upon emerging research showing that conspiracy beliefs have potentially significant social consequences. Practical implications of these findings are further discussed.

Beliefs in COVID-19 conspiracy theories predict lower level of compliance with the preventive measures both directly and indirectly by lowering trust in government medical officials

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The COVID-19 pandemic is a serious problem all over the world in 2020. In this study, a large-scale online survey was conducted in Japan to explore the determinants of infection preventive behaviors. In addition, this survey collected data on various attitudes and behaviors in this pandemic situation, including optimistic/pessimistic views and information dissemination behavior on social networking sites (SNS). The results showed that the infection risk perception of self and others were both associated with the preventive behaviors, but the social pressure was not. The results were unclear in regard to optimistic/pessimistic views for infection risk perception and prospect for the end of coronavirus outbreak. Surprisingly, information spreading via SNS was negatively associated with knowledge of COVID-19, which calls attention to the credibility of information on SNS. In addition, subjective evaluation of achievement in regard to preventive behaviors was higher for self than for other people. This suggests that a self-enhancement tendency may contribute to the evaluation of preventive behaviors. Despite limitations such as employing a cross-sectional survey design and using data collected only in Japan, our study provides useful insights into the determinants of infection preventive behaviors, information dissemination, and the self-enhancement tendency in the evaluation of preventive behaviors. These findings should be useful in preventing the spread of COVID-19 around the world and in preparing for a possible future pandemic.

Psychological Research on the COVID-19 Crisis in Japan: Focusing on Infection Preventive Behaviors, Future Prospects, and Information Dissemination Behaviors

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Commenting on Thalmayer et al. (2020), we provide broader analysis of the national institutional affiliations of authors (2,978), editors (286), and consulting editors (2,652) from seven (vs. six) APA journals that span over 40 (vs. 30) years. Using multilevel models, results showed that percentages of lead authors at American institutions decreased linearly and significantly and over time. Percentages of editors and consulting editors at American institutions also decreased significantly; however the effect for consulting editors was also quadratic—the linear decline accelerated over time. American psychology continues to internationalize, but not quickly enough.

American Psychology Is Becoming More International, But Too Slowly: Comment on Thalmayer et al. (2020)

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Lack of participation in health promoting behaviors and participation in behaviors that contribute to health risks have been linked to health disparities observed among individuals from disadvantaged backgrounds. This chapter presents a basic process model to summarize the effects of socio-structural variables linked to health disparities – socio-economic status, education, health literacy, ethnicity, and religiosity – on individuals’ beliefs and cognitions that determine behavior. Socio-structural characteristics were proposed to have a pervasive effect on individuals’ beliefs and other constructs from social cognition theories which impact their decisions to participate in prospective health behaviors and influence their health outcomes. The model provides a mechanistic explanation for health disparities among individuals from disadvantaged groups. A series of illustrative examples are presented of the application of the proposed model as a means to explain how characteristics linked to disadvantage relate to participation in health behaviors and outcomes via potentially modifiable mediating beliefs and social cognition constructs. Efforts to develop interventions targeting these modifiable beliefs will contribute to the enhancement of long-term global health and illness prevention.

Behavioral Health Theories, Equity, and Disparities in Global Health: A Basic Process Model

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The COVID-19 pandemic affects the whole world. Spain is one of the most affected nations. Prevention via information that fosters knowledge, reasonable concern, control and personal care is the most effective means to slow down the pandemic. In this intervention study we assessed extant knowledge, concern, control and care about the COVID-19 in 111 Spanish university teachers and students. Subsequently, we randomly assigned them to two groups. One group (n = 53) received uncertain information about the current measures of prevention whereas the other group (n = 58) received certain information. A group by time interaction revealed that the ‘certain information’ group reported immediately increased personal care about the pandemic. These findings suggest that measures known to be effective in COVID-19 prevention should be communicated with certainty (i.e. must be convincing) to influence people’s attitudes through the schematic organization of new information.

The Impact of the Certainty of Information on COVID-19 Attitudes in Spanish University Teachers and Students

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Mandatory and voluntary mask policies may have yet unknown social and behavioral consequences related to the effectiveness of the measure, stigmatization, and perceived fairness. Serial cross-sectional data (04/14-05/26/20) from nearly 7,000 German participants demonstrate that implementing a mandatory policy increased actual compliance despite moderate acceptance; mask wearing correlated positively with other protective behaviors. A preregistered experiment (n = 925) further indicates that a voluntary policy would likely lead to insufficient compliance, would be perceived as less fair, and could intensify stigmatization. A mandatory policy appears to be an effective, fair, and socially responsible solution to curb transmissions of airborne viruses.

Social and behavioral consequences of mask policies during the COVID-19 pandemic

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Since the first COVID-19 case was diagnosed in Germany, various lockdown measures were imposed across the country that likely had a large impact on psychological well-being. In the current study, we investigate depressive symptoms as depression is a leading contributor to the global burden of disease and potentially life-threatening. This study reports on a dataset that was collected between April 8 and June 1 2020 through an online survey in several German states. More than 2000 individuals took part in the survey measuring depressive symptoms (as defined in ICD-10). Similar to recent observations from Italy and China, severe depressive symptoms reported were relatively high. Especially younger adults and females reported more severe symptoms compared to other groups. In conclusion, we need to prepare for increased need of psychological services, availability and accessibility already parallel with imposing restrictive measures.

Depression symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic in different regions in Germany.

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The unprecedented effort to minimize the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic introduces a new arena for human face recognition in which faces are partially occluded with masks. Here, we tested the extent to which face masks change the way faces are perceived. To this end, we evaluated face processing abilities for masked and unmasked faces in a large online sample of adult observers (n=496) using an adapted version of the Cambridge Face Memory Test, the most validated measure of face perception abilities in humans. As expected, a substantial decrease in performance was found for masked faces, along with a large increase in the proportion of individuals who exhibit a remarkable deficit in face perception. Unexpectedly, however, the inclusion of masks led to a qualitative change in the way masked faces are perceived. In particular, holistic processing, the hallmark of face perception, was severely impaired for masked faces. Similar changes were found when masks were included either during the study or the test phases of the experiment. Together, we provide robust evidence for qualitative alterations in the processing of masked faces that could have significant effects on daily activities and social interactions.

The COVID-19 pandemic masks the way people perceive faces

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The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to claim lives worldwide and a vaccine has yet to be developed. Behavioral interventions are the only currently known treatments that have the potential to massively reduce the devastating levels of morbidity and mortality associated with COVID-19. Yet behavioral interventions to support the adoption of these guidelines are not being prioritized. We argue that developing, testing, and providing a habit formation intervention, particularly to high-risk groups, has the potential to be lifesaving. COVID-19 prevention behaviors involve a complex chain of steps. Data from the H1N1 pandemic suggests that adherence to these behaviors is likely to be low. The science of habit formation offers strategies to increase adherence to COVID-19 prevention behaviors. Habit formation is defined as the process by which repeating a behavior, in the context of a stable contextual cue, eventually becomes automated such that we engage in the habit with minimal effort. The repetition of behaviors necessary for habit formation are strengthened by reinforcement. Eight elements of habit formation are highlighted: setting goals, devising an action plan, addressing incorrect beliefs, establishing contextual cues, engaging in repetition, adding reinforcement, aiming for automaticity and recognizing that change is difficult. A behavioral intervention, derived from habit formation principles and known effective behavior change techniques, is proposed as a basis for further development and empirical testing. This narrative review highlights the importance of the science of habit formation for increasing adherence to COVID-19 prevention behaviors. With the COVID-19 pandemic still raging, there is currently an urgent opportunity to leap knowledge on habit formation processes and interventions forward.

COVID-19 Prevention via the Science of Habit Formation

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Face masks play a pivotal role in the control and prevention of respiratory diseases, such as the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). Despite their widespread use, it is not known how face masks affect human social interaction. In this behavioral economics study (N = 475), we examined how mask-wearing modulates individuals’ likelihood of acceptance of unfair monetary offers in an iterated social exchange. Overall, participants accepted more offers, including more unfair offers, from mask-wearing opponents than from opponents without a mask. This effect was enhanced when participants ascribed more altruistic motives to their interaction partner. Importantly, this pattern of results was only present for surgical face masks, but not when a non-medical cloth face covering was used. This is the first study to uncover a new phenomenon, the face-mask effect, in which face masks can alter human social behavior.

Bargaining under social distancing requirements: Effects of face masks on socio-economic decision-making in the COVID-19 pandemic

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COVID-19 pandemic, as a global threat to humanity, is likely to instigate a variety of collective responses in the society. We examined, for the first time, whether COVID-19 threat perception is related to attitudes towards Syrian immigrants in Turkey, theorizing a dual pathway whereby threat caused by the COVID-19 pandemic would relate to both pro- and anti-immigrant feelings. While drawing upon behavioral immune system theory, we expected that pathogen threat would lead to more exclusionary attitudes; relying on the common ingroup identity model, we predicted that pathogen threat would promote inclusionary attitudes through creating a common ingroup in the face of a global threat. Results from two studies using online search volume data at the province-level (N = 81) and self-report measures at the individual level (N = 294) demonstrated that perceived COVID-19 threat was directly associated with more positive attitudes towards immigrants (Study 1 and 2). Study 2 further revealed indirect positive (through a sense of common identity) and negative (through perceptions of immigrant threat) links between COVID-19 threat perception and attitudes towards immigrants. These results highlight the importance of integrating evolutionary and social identity perspectives when assessing pathogen-related threats. We draw attention to managing the public perceptions of COVID-19 threat which may mitigate the social aftermath of the pandemic.

The pathogen paradox: Evidence that perceived COVID-19 threat is associated with both pro- and anti-immigrant attitudes

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Individual decision-making about social distancing, self-quarantine and self-isolation is crucial in managing the COVID-19 pandemic. In the rapidly evolving pandemic, little is known about how different government communication strategies may systematically affect people’s attitudes to staying home or going out, nor the extent to which people perceive and process the risk of different scenarios. In this study, we report results from a sample of 581 participants (residing in the United Kingdom), and we examine the degree to which participants’ attitudes regarding the permissibility of leaving one’s home are (1) sensitive to different levels of risk of viral transmission in specific scenarios, (2) sensitive to communication framings that are either imperative or that invite reasoning about scenarios, or (3) creating “loopholes” for themselves when scenarios are framed with reference to the participants themselves rather than in general terms. We find that participants’ attitudes to social distancing are sensitive to the level of risk of transmission, and that when scenarios are framed in imperative terms, rather than when their reasoning is encouraged, participants have more impermissive attitudes to going out in Minimal Risk scenarios, with a trend of decreased permissiveness more generally; for self-loopholes, more research is needed to determine if participants make exceptions for themselves. Thus, subject to the limitations of this study, during phases where it is important to promote self-isolation for all scenarios, including those perceived to be low risk, imperative communication may be best.

Risk perception and personal responsibility during COVID-19: An experimental study of the role of imperative vs reasoning-based communication for self-isolation attitudes

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The purpose of the study was to better understand the relationships among stress, work-related burnout, and remote working brought on by social distancing efforts and stay at home orders put in place during the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors developed a questionnaire incorporating valid and reliable self-report stress and burnout measures (Perceived Stress Scale & Copenhagen Burnout Inventory), demographic, and work-related questions. The questions were used primarily to determine workers’ levels of stress before and during the pandemic, to assess potential burnout, and to establish the extent of their previous experience with remote work/telecommuting. The questionnaire was open from March 23rd to May 19th 2020 and distributed through a survey link on social media and by Qualtrics research services. Results from the analyses suggest that perceived stress did increase during the COVID-19 restrictions, especially for people that had limited experience working from home and were female. Individuals who worked from home before COVID-19 had higher levels of work-related burnout but did not differ based on gender or part-time work status. The results suggest that working from home may create more stress and result in more burnout, which challenges the current moves by some employers to make working from home a permanent arrangement. The authors believe that having research based on valid and reliable instruments will help employers and schools make better decisions about how to support those who can remain at home to avoid the potential for secondary outbreaks.

“I’m not Working from Home, I’m Living at Work”: Perceived Stress and Work-Related Burnout before and during COVID-19

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In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, French public opinion has been divided about Pr. Didier Raoult and his hydroxychloroquine-based treatment against COVID-19. In this paper, our aim is to contribute to the understanding of this polarization of public opinion by investigating the relationship between (analytic vs. intuitive) cognitive style and trust in Didier Raoult and his treatment. Through three studies (total N after exclusion = 950), we found that a more intuitive cognitive style predicted higher trust in Didier Raoult and his treatment. Possible mediators included valorization of scientific method over personal experience, belief that truth is political, belief in conspiracy theories and belief in pseudo-medicines. Additionally, we found that higher trust in Didier Raoult and hydroxychloroquine was linked to higher pseudo-medical and conspiratorial beliefs regarding the COVID-19 pandemic, but not to self-reported behavior, such as lower compliance with official regulations.

“Quick and dirty”: Intuitive cognitive style predicts trust in Didier Raoult and his hydroxychloroquine-based treatment against COVID-19

10.31234/osf.io/mp7wt

The COVID-19 pandemic is a unique period of stress and uncertainty that will have significant implications for adolescent mental health. Nevertheless, stress about COVID-19 may be more consequential for some adolescents’ mental health than for others. We examined whether heart rate variability (HRV) indicated differential susceptibility to mental health difficulties associated with COVID-19 stress. Approximately four years prior to the pandemic, we assessed resting HRV and HRV reactivity to a well-validated stress paradigm in 87 adolescents. During the pandemic, these adolescents (ages 13-19) reported on their health-related stress and concerns about COVID-19 and their recent emotional problems. The association between COVID-19 stress and emotional problems was significantly stronger for adolescents who previously exhibited higher resting HRV or higher HRV reactivity. For adolescents who exhibited lower resting HRV or lower HRV reactivity, COVID-19 stress was not associated with emotional problems. Thus, parasympathetic functioning may reflect differential susceptibility to the effects of COVID-19 stress on mental health during the pandemic.

Heart Rate Variability Moderates the Link Between COVID-19 Stress and Emotional Problems in Adolescents: Evidence for Differential Susceptibility

10.31234/osf.io/vcbrw

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused uncertainty and disruptions in daily life. It has mandated social distancing and online education. Teens are spending a significant amount of time online and less time on extracurricular activities including team sports, choir/orchestra, and school socials. The cancellation of SAT, the switch to online AP exams, and the Credit/No Credit policy for 2nd-semester all contribute to the uncertainty in teens regarding their future. Our project aims to create a survey that seeks opinions from teens about how they are managing with online socialization, the effectiveness of the online school, and stress levels. Using convenience sampling, adolescents (n = 168) were invited to participate in an anonymous online survey. Participants were asked about the effectiveness of online socializing, online education, hobbies, and extracurriculars to determine stress levels. We looked at models with two dependent stress variables: “low energy, insomnia and headache” and “forgetfulness and disorganization”. We used descriptive, regression, and correlation analysis to assess what the predictors of anxiety and stress are. Results show that stress levels are highly correlated with online exposure, online schooling, credit/no credit, and home environment. The research focuses on the areas where we can better support teens during lockdown situations by building safer environments for online socialization, and online education.

Managing through uncertain times: A study to understand the effects of conducting socio-academic life online during COVID-19

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Background: Prevalence and mortality rates during COVID-19 pandemic have varied widely across nations. This phenomenon may be partly due to regional variations in health-related behaviours, some of which may be influenced by health anxiety. A functional polymorphism of the catechol O-methyltransferase (COMT) gene, designated rs4680 or Val158Met, has been associated with anxiety-related behaviours and the so-called “worrier” phenotype. Methods: In this exploratory study, an analysis of the correlation between the frequencies of the Met allele of the COMT gene across 28 countries, obtained from the public domain Allele Frequency Database (ALFRED), and the COVID-19 prevalence and mortality rates in these countries, obtained from the Johns Hopkins Medical University web-based dashboard, was carried out while controlling for population size and median age in each country. Results: Allele frequencies varied widely across populations. Met allele frequency was positively correlated with COVID-19 prevalence (ρ = 0.527, p = 0.004) and mortality rate (ρ = 0.542) across nations. However, this association was no longer significant after controlling for confounders. Conclusions: These preliminary results suggest that there may be a relationship between the COMT rs4680 functional polymorphism and the impact of COVID-19 across nations, which could plausibly be mediated by maladaptive anxiety-related behaviours.

Warriors, worriers, and COVID-19: an exploratory study of the catechol O-methyltransferase Val158Met polymorphism across populations

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The aim of many experiments is to estimate the effect of different interventions on subjects’ decision making. However, obtaining large samples and internal validity is challenging. This paper presents an alternative device at almost no cost that can easily provide a very large number of participants (700 in 5 hours). We asked 14 students to invite their WhatsApp contacts to participate in an online experiment. The students created a total of 80 diffusion groups with 25 contacts each. Using the diffusion groups as clusters, we ran a cluster randomization procedure in order to assign subjects to a framing experiment (treatment + control). We obtained the same level of attrition, duplicates and uninvited subjects across the treatment and control groups. Moreover, the experiment yielded consistent results in line with the framing literature.

Recruiting experimental subjects using WhatsApp

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I think it is fair to say that the broad focus of health psychology in the UK is on non-communicable disease and lifestyle-related health behaviours. I would like to suggest that perhaps the discipline could devote a little more time to infectious diseases, and not just because we find ourselves in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic. In this reflective piece, I outline some of the assumptions that I held, that I sought to challenge in Stage 1 students, and that I suspect are relatively implicit across health psychology as a discipline.

Coronavirus and other pathogens: Reflecting on the relationship between health psychology and infectious disease

10.31234/osf.io/4s65q

The present study describes the adaption and scale validation of a brief measure of contagion-related fear and threat in Australian, Indian, and Nepali university students in Australia at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Adapted from Ho, Kwong-Lo, Mak, and Wong’s (2005) SARS fear scale, the Contagion Fear and Threat Scale (CFTS) was developed rapidly to capture COVID-19 pandemic-related fear. The 10-item scale was administered to 164 Australian, 111 Indian, and 147 Nepali university students studying in Australia in May-June 2020. Factor analysis revealed two 5-item factors in the Australian student sample: Fear of Infection and Existential Threat. These factors were largely reflected in the Indian student sample but substantially different in the Nepali student sample. The convergent and discriminant validity of the full CFTS, Fear, and Threat scales are indicated via correlations with established measures of depression, anxiety, stress, subjective wellbeing, and locus of control. Psychometric variance of the CFTS between the three samples are considered in terms of demographic, sociocultural, and linguistic differences.

The Contagion Fear and Threat Scale: Measuring COVID-19 Fear in Australian, Indian, and Nepali University Students

10.31234/osf.io/s2c5h

This study is a cross-linguistic, conceptual replication of Lynott and Connell’s (2009, 2013) modality exclusivity norms. Their English properties and concepts were translated into Dutch, then independently tested as follows. Forty-two respondents rated the auditory, haptic, and visual strength of those words. Mean scores were then computed, with a high interrater reliability and interitem consistency. Based on the three modalities, each word also features a specific modality exclusivity, and a dominant modality. The norms also include external measures of word frequency, length, distinctiveness, age of acquisition, and known percentage. Starting with the results, unimodal, bimodal, and tri-modal words appear. Visual and haptic experience are quite related, leaving a more independent auditory experience. These different relations are important because they may correlate with different levels of detail in word comprehension (Louwerse & Connell, 2011). Auditory and visual words tend toward unimodality, whereas haptic words tend toward multimodality. Likewise, properties are more unimodal than concepts. Last, the 'sound symbolism' hypothesis was tested by means of a regression: Auditory strength predicts lexical properties of the words (e.g., frequency, distinctiveness) better than the other modalities do, or else with a different polarity. All the data and analysis code are available at https://osf.io/brkjw/.

Dutch modality exclusivity norms for 336 properties and 411 concepts

America’s stockmarket just had its best quarter in 20 years

OF ALL THE outcomes that might accompany a global pandemic, a historic stockmarket boom seems among the least likely. And yet on June 30th the S&P 500, America's main index, ended the second quarter up by 20% on its March 31st close, its strongest quarterly performance in more than two decades. The rally has puzzled investors. Since March 23rd, the market has soared by 39%, even as the country’s official covid-19 death toll has climbed to more than 127,000. It is now just 8% below its historic peak. Why?

2007.01043v1

Stochastic epidemic models on networks are inherently high-dimensional and the resulting exact models are intractable numerically even for modest network sizes. Mean-field models provide an alternative but can only capture average quantities, thus offering little or no information about variability in the outcome of the exact process. In this paper we conjecture and numerically prove that it is possible to construct PDE-limits of the exact stochastic SIS epidemics on regular and Erdős-Rényi networks. To do this we first approximate the exact stochastic process at population level by a Birth-and-Death process (BD) (with a state space of O(N)O(N) rather than O(2N)O(2^N)) whose coefficients are determined numerically from Gillespie simulations of the exact epidemic on explicit networks. We numerically demonstrate that the coefficients of the resulting BD process are density-dependent, a crucial condition for the existence of a PDE limit. Extensive numerical tests for Regular and Erdős-Rényi networks show excellent agreement between the outcome of simulations and the numerical solution of the Fokker-Planck equations. Apart from a significant reduction in dimensionality, the PDE also provides the means to derive the epidemic outbreak threshold linking network and disease dynamics parameters, albeit in an implicit way. Perhaps more importantly, it enables the formulation and numerical evaluation of likelihoods for epidemic and network inference as illustrated in a worked out example.

PDE-limits of stochastic SIS epidemics on networks

To figure out what makes some people more vulnerable to severe cases of covid-19, we need to rethink what we know about infection

Why is coronavirus deadly for some, but harmless in others?

Latest coronavirus news as of 5 pm on 2 July An app identified Leicester as a coronavirus hotspot two weeks ago

Covid-19 news: App identified Leicester as a virus hotspot weeks ago

10.31234/osf.io/86qxu

Trust in the health care system requires being confident that sufficient and appropriate treatments will be provided if needed. The COVID-19 public health crisis is a significant, global, and (mostly) simultaneous test of the behavioral implications arising from this trust. We explore whether populations reporting low levels of confidence in the health care system exhibit a stronger behavioral reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic. We track the dynamic responses to the COVID-19 pandemic across 38 countries and 621 regions by exploiting a large dataset on human mobility generated between February 15 and June 5, 2020 and a broad range of contextual factors (e.g. deaths or policy implementations). Using a time-dynamic framework we find that societies with low levels of health care confidence initially exhibit a faster response with respect to staying home. However, this reaction plateaus sooner, and after the plateau it declines with greater magnitude than does the response from societies with high health care confidence. On the other hand, regions with higher confidence in the health care system are more likely to reduce mobility once the government mandates that its citizens are not to leave home except for essential trips, compared to those with lower health care system confidence. Regions with high trust in the government but low confidence in the health care system dramatically reduce their mobility, suggesting a correlation for trust in the state with respect to behavioral responses during a crisis.

How confidence in health care systems affects mobility and compliance during the COVID-19 pandemic

This report presents a summary of the descriptive epidemiology of COVID-19 in Leicester.

Rapid Investigation Team (RIT)Preliminary investigation into COVID-19 exceedances in Leicester (June 2020).

2006.16516v1

The study of network formation is pervasive in economics, sociology, and many other fields. In this paper, we model network formation as a ``choice'' that is made by nodes in a network to connect to other nodes. We study these ``choices'' using discrete-choice models, in which an agent chooses between two or more discrete alternatives. One framework for studying network formation is the multinomial logit (MNL) model. We highlight limitations of the MNL model on networks that are constructed from empirical data. We employ the ``repeated choice'' (RC) model to study network formation \cite{TrainRevelt97mixedlogit}. We argue that the RC model overcomes important limitations of the MNL model and is well-suited to study network formation. We also illustrate how to use the RC model to accurately study network formation using both synthetic and real-world networks. Using synthetic networks, we also compare the performance of the MNL model and the RC model; we find that the RC model estimates the data-generation process of our synthetic networks more accurately than the MNL model. We provide examples of qualitatively interesting questions -- the presence of homophily in a teen friendship network and the fact that new patents are more likely to cite older, more cited, and similar patents -- for which the RC model allows us to achieve insights.