1,209 Matching Annotations
  1. May 2023
    1. This is how wealthy individuals or corporations translate their economic power into political and cultural power
      • This is how wealthy individuals or corporations
        • translate their economic power
        • into political and cultural power
      • quote
    2. Climate Denialism funding

    1. Auf Twitter werden seriöse Limawissenschaftler:innen gezielt angegriffen und diffamiert, oft von bezahlten und deshalb höher getränkten Accounts aus. Elon Musk hat die Bemühungen, vertrauenswürdige Inhalte erkennbar zu machen, gestoppt und die Zuständigen entlassen. Der Guardian hat bedienende Wissenschaftler:innen Interviewt und berichtet über eine Global Witness-Studie.

  2. Apr 2023
    1. Click on any folder to view all translated documents in that language or request a new language below!

      Climate Cardinals

    1. Bericht von Bloomberg Green über grüne Investitionen von Venture-Kapitalisten. Im Vordergrund stehen - oft mit öffentlicher Beteiligung - nicht mehr die schon eingeführten Technologien zur Energieerzeugung sondern Elektrifizierung neuer Bereiche und auch das Speichern von CO2. 2022 würden ca. 70 Milliarden USD venture Capital und insgesamt 652 Milliarden in Climate Tech investiert. Der International Renewable Energy Agency zufolge müssen sich die Investitionen jährlich vervierfachen. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-climate-tech-startups-where-to-invest/?srnd=green&leadSource=uverify%20wall

    1. Here I estimate the global inequality of individual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions between 1990 and 2019 using a newly assembled dataset of income and wealth inequality, environmental input-output tables and a framework differentiating emissions from consumption and investments.
    1. We connect you with grassroots climate change solutions.
    1. The most efficient route toward enacting such policy, the authors argue, lies not in convincing deniers to believe in climate change but in galvanizing those who already do.
    2. In a 2015 study published in PLOS One, Maibach and colleagues found that telling people that experts agreed on climate change increased the chances that those individuals would accept that climate change was happening, was human-caused, and presented a real threat. Extra encouraging: That strategy was also particularly influential on Republicans, though liberals might also need a nudge.
    3. For many skeptics, Neha Thirani Bagri has written in Quartz, delineating the myriad potential harms of unmitigated climate change is not an effective strategy. Instead, it can be more productive to illustrate the potential benefits that mitigation may carry. She writes:A comprehensive study published in 2015 in Nature surveyed 6,000 people across 24 countries and found that emphasizing the shared benefits of climate change was an effective way of motivating people to take action — even if they initially identified as deniers. For example, people were more likely to take steps to mitigate climate change if they believe that it will produce economic and scientific development. Most importantly, these results were true across political ideology, age, and gender.
    4. research has found that conservatives are more likely to support a pro-environmental agenda when presented with messages containing themes of patriotism and defending the purity of nature.
    5. the best predictor of whether we agree with the science is simply where we fall on the political spectrum.

      Dr. Katharine Hayhoe, climate scientist at Texas Tech University

      the referent "the science" is "the [climate] science" in this context

    1. According to the researchers, proximity was tied to certainty. The farther away a climate-related event was perceived to be, the less certain viewers were that humans were causing it. That made them feel less responsible for doing something about it and “lowered their own perceived ability to influence global climate change outcomes,” says Tsay-Vogel, a COM assistant professor of communication.
    1. Recommended Source

      Under the "More on Philosophies of Copyright" section, I recommended adding the scholarly article by Chinese scholar Peter K. Yu that explains how Chinese philosophy of Yin-Yang can address the contradictions in effecting or eliminating intellectual property laws. One of the contradictions is in intellectual property laws protecting individual rights while challenging sustainability efforts for future generations (as climate change destroys more natural resources.

      Yu, Peter K., Intellectual Property, Asian Philosophy and the Yin-Yang School (November 19, 2015). WIPO Journal, Vol. 7, pp. 1-15, 2015, Texas A&M University School of Law Legal Studies Research Paper No. 16-70, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2693420

      Below is a short excerpt from the article that details Chinese philosophical thought on IP and sustainability:

      "Another area of intellectual property law and policy that has made intergenerational equity questions salient concerns the debates involving intellectual property and sustainable development. Although this mode of development did not garner major international attention until after the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, the Yin-Yang school of philosophy—which “offers a normative model with balance, harmony, and sustainability as ideals”—provides important insight into sustainable development."

    1. Das Interview mit dem UAE-Ölminister, #Adnoc-Chef und #COP28-Präsidenten Sultan Al Jaber ist ein Paradebeispiel dafür, wie die Fossil-Branche den Kampf gegen die durch sie verursachte Klimakatastrophe hijackt. Dazu gehört es auch - verkörpert durch diesen Minister, der gleichzeitig Firmenchef ist - das hochpolitische Öl- und Gasgeschäft als Business-as-usual auszugeben.

  3. Mar 2023
    1. Title: How Alive Is 1.5? Part One – A Small Budget, Shrinking Fast

      Author: - Kevin Anderson - Dan Calverley

      Key Messages - For a 50:50 chance of staying below 1.5°C, we’re using up the remaining carbon budget at around 1% every month. - Following current national emissions pledges (NDCs) to 2030 puts the temperature commitments within the Paris Agreement beyond reach. - Claims that 1.5°C is now inevitable also assign “well below 2°C” to the scrapheap. - An ‘outside chance’ of not exceeding 1.5°C remains viable, but ongoing fossil fuel use is rapidly undermining it. - The few credible pathways for an outside chance of 1.5°C are not being discussed. This is an active choice by policymakers and experts, who have largely dismissed equity-based social change.

    1. This example illustrates the potential for an unintended consequence to move between categories and demonstrates that there are times when it is necessary to review and reflect. What is considered known and knowable changes over time: has the state of knowledge developed or an unintended consequence been identified?

      // - This is the critical question - Looking at history, can we see predictive patterns - when it makes sense to stop and take questions of the unknown seriously - rather than steaming ahead into uncharted territory? - We might find that society did not follow science's call - for applying the precautionary principle - because profits were just too great - the profit bias at play - profit overrides safety, health and wellbeing

    1. seeded properly

      It is vitally important to know what the Best Grass Seed is for your Region. Cool (Northern) Climate vs. Hot (Southern) Climate Grass Seeds are produced for the best results by specific regions.

    1. the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released its “synthesis” report summarizing the findings of its sixth assessment (the last occurred in 2014). The findings are painfully familiar: the world is falling far short of its emission goals, and without rapid reductions this decade, the planet is likely to shoot to beyond 1.5 or even 2 degrees Celsius of warming this century (we are at 1.1 degrees now). We seem to be stuck in a doom-loop news cycle where scientific reports create headlines, and earnest climate commentators insist the new report represents a true “wake-up call” for action, and then . . . emission keep rising. They hit a record once again in 2022. The world of climate politics appears to exist in two completely different worlds. There is a largely liberal and idealist world of climate technocrats where science informs policy, and there is the real, material capitalist world of power.
      • A good observation
        • about the cognitive dissonance of the situation
    2. “I think we’re on the cusp of a massive transformation . . . ultimately, the market is going to make the decisions, not the government.”

      Indeed, - and the market could very well make the decision - that will exceed planetary boundaries - after all, the highest priorities are the lowest cost goods - those already well established in the market place by reliance on fossil fuels, - that can maintain an individual's life

    1. He said he and Arkush “went through every possible objection” and found no legal barrier for prosecutors to raise criminal charges against companies that he said have lied about their knowledge of the danger of burning fossil fuels. “What’s really probably stopping them is that no one has done it before,” Braman said. “The level of culpability and the extent of the harm is so massive that it’s not the kind of thing that prosecutors are used to prosecuting.”
      • Quote
    1. In addition, at least two justices have ties to the oil industry writ large. Justice Amy Coney Barrett’s father was a Shell attorney for nearly three decades and served in leadership positions with the American Petroleum Institute, and Justice Samuel Alito owns stock in ConocoPhillips and Phillips 66 (Alito recused himself from the Baltimore case but Barrett did not).
      • The supreme court is tilted in favor of the fossil fuel industry through these appointments.
      • The battle to keep fossil fuel litigation away from state courts and in federal court is big oil's attempt to leverage their conservative allies
      • Title: Climate Homicide: Prosecuting Big Oil for Climate Deaths

      • Author:

        • David Arkush
        • Donald Braman
      • Abstract

      • Paraphrase
        • Prosecutors regularly bring homicide charges against individuals and corporations
          • whose reckless or negligent acts or omissions
          • cause unintentional deaths,
          • as well as those whose misdemeanors or felonies cause unintentional deaths.
        • Fossil fuel companies learned decades ago that
          • what they
            • produced,
            • marketed, and
            • sold
          • would generate “globally catastrophic” climate change.
        • Rather than alert the public and curtail their operations,
          • they worked to
            • deceive the public about these harms and
            • to prevent regulation of their lethal conduct.
        • They funded efforts to
          • call sound science into doubt and
          • to confuse their
            • shareholders,
            • consumers, and
            • regulators.
          • poured money into political campaigns to elect or install
            • judges,
            • legislators, and
            • executive officials hostile to any
              • litigation,
              • regulation, or
              • competition
            • that might limit their profits.
        • Today, the climate change that they forecast
          • has already killed thousands of people in the United States,
          • and it is expected to become increasingly lethal for the foreseeable future.
        • Given the
          • extreme lethality of the conduct and
          • the awareness of the catastrophic risk
            • on the part of fossil fuel companies,
            • should they be charged with homicide?
        • Could they be convicted?
        • In answering these questions,
          • this Article makes several contributions to
            • our understanding of criminal law and
            • the role it could play in combating crimes committed at a massive scale.
        • It describes
          • the doctrinal and
          • social predicates of homicide prosecutions
        • where corporate conduct endangers much or all of the public.
        • It also identifies important advantages of
          • homicide prosecutions
          • relative to
            • civil and
            • regulatory remedies,
          • and it details
            • how and
            • why
          • prosecution for homicide may be the most effective legal remedy available in cases like this.
        • Finally, it argues that,
          • if our criminal legal system cannot focus more intently on climate crimes soon
          • we may leave future generations with significantly less for the law to protect.
    1. // - This article provides an intersectional study of: - climate change, - collective action research - terror management theory / mortality salience - it explains the beneficial impacts of non-rational relational ontology and recommends the use of ritual practices based on this as a way to promote pro-environmental behavior

      //

    2. Knowledge about problems on this scale brings paralyzing guilt, fear, and a sense of helplessness

      // in other words - presenting knowledge alone can trigger a host of counter-productive behaviiors

    1. Ads, Andrew and James discuss where the the climate movement is right now, how deep time plays into the effects we are having on the planet, when good people do bad things because of poor systems and what happens next if 1.5C fails.
      • 21:52 Carbon credits, carbon markets
        • it's a scam designed to perpetuate fossil fuel use, in a phoney war against the climate crisis
        • Offsets were designed to allow polluters to pay others to create schemes that would compensate or "offset" that pollution. The classic example WAS afforestation, the planting of trees that can sequester that carbon.
        • Carbon neutrality comes from this idea that you can keep polluting if you offset it and become "carbon neutral"
        • A company may decarbonize a lot of their supply chain but may struggle to get rid of airflights around the world. In that case, they use offsets. When companies analyze the very difficult choices, they take the easy way out and use carbon offsets
        • However, there is so much offsets for afforestation now that there isn't enough land on earth
        • Carbon markets are a recipe for grifting and fraud or zero impacts
        • This is the current state of offsets

      31:00 Shell oil carbon offset greenwashing scam - the sky zero proposal - Shell claims they can offset all the O+G emissions out of the ground - it is preposterous - there's not enough land on earth when you tally up all the carbon offset afforestation schemes

      • 32:30 Neo-colonialism

        • rich white man can offset his emissions by buying land from a developing nation. Now the indigenous people cannot use that land for any reason.
        • also, will require huge amount of water to grow those trees
        • we don't have enough land and we don't have 100 years, only 5 years.
        • nature-based solutions are an industrial, myopic approach
      • 37:00 Deferred Emission Reduction

        • a lot of carbon credits are called deferred emission reduction credits.
        • this is avoided emissions - ie. trees in a forest with 100 ton of sequestering potential
        • this is promise to not destroy the biosphere any further so it's not removing any existing carbon
        • maybe multiple people might own the same forest, or someone might come along and burn it down
        • Trees are vulnerable to climate impacts - ie. Microsoft bought a large forest in California that later burned down in a climate change intensified wildfire
      • 40:00 can we do anything within the extractive capitalist system?

        • some people claim that as long as extractivist capitalism still persists, we cannot have system change
        • also a neocolonialist element - global north exploited the global south to create most of the emissions in the atmospheric commons
        • a number of people are beginning to see that an extractivist capitalist system is not in line with effectively addressing the climate crisis
        • wind, solar, etc has displaced electricity generation in a number of countries like in the UK. However, these are only a few countries.Renewables are helping increase overall energy production
      • 44:22: Stop burning fossil fuels

        • t doesn't matter if investments in renewables triple. It won't make a difference if we don't significantly stop burning fossil fuels at the same time.
      • 47:00 economic growth prevents real change

        • Insisting on 1, 2 or 3% growth, will limit the response to the climate threat to render it irrelevant
        • Climate change is still mostly an optimization problem. They are more concerned with economic damage.
        • Economists believe that anything that threatens economic growth cannot be accepted
      • 51:00 Degrowth making headway

        • Degrowth scholars are getting more attention on the need to decouple economic grwoth from climate policies
      • 52:10 Is there a positive future scenario - The role of solidarity

        • Solidarity is the greatest strength we can harness.
        • The success of Doughnut Economics gives me hope
        • The richest 1% must reign in their impacts and redistribute to allow the impoverished to live humane lives
        • We can all have good lives and we don't have to manufacture that wonder
        • This is what it is to be human
    1. From TED Countdown London 2022

      Abstract

      To restrain global warming, we know we need to drastically reduce pollution. The very next step after that: using both natural and technological solutions to trap as much excess carbon dioxide from the air as possible. Enter Orca, the world's first large-scale direct air capture and storage plant, built in Iceland by the team at Climeworks, led by climate entrepreneur Jan Wurzbacher. This plant is capable of removing 4,000 tons of carbon dioxide from the air each year. With affordability and scalability in mind, Wurzbacher shares his vision for what comes after Orca, the future of carbon removal tech -- and why these innovations are crucial to stop climate change.

    1. Discussion on how to downscale the climate change boundary has now become a political and equity issue more than a scientific issue. For example, how does one decide the allocation of the CO2 emissions? Should the past emissions be considered? Should the amount of emissions account for the current welfare of the countries, allowing less developed countries to emit more? Or, is it sufficient to calculate a global per capita value that is the same everywhere?

      Classic issue

  4. Feb 2023
    1. At COP27, governments agreed to create a “contribution unit” as part of the establishment of new carbon markets under the Paris Agreement - a clear sign of support for this evolution in claims

      This is the first time I have come aceoss a "contribution unit"

    1. Auseinandersetzungen in Frankreich über die "Zonen mit schwachen Emissionen": Verbotszonen für Dieselfahrzeuge, die dabei nach Emissionsmenge klassifiziert werden. Die Rechten fordern den Verzicht auf diese Zonen, die Linken soziale Begleitmaßnahmen - wobei aber die Rhetorik teilweise ähnlich ist

      • Title: Faster than expected
      • subtitle: why most climate scientists can’t tell the truth (in public) Author: Jackson Damien

      • This is a good article written from a psychotherapist's perspective,

      • examining the psychology behind why published, mainstream, peer reviewed climate change research is always dangerously lagging behind current research,
      • and recommending what interventions could be be taken to remedy this
      • This your of scientific misinformation coming from scientists themselves
      • gives minimizers and denialists the very ammunition they need to legitimise delay of the urgently needed system change.
      • What climate scientists say In public is far from what they believe in private.
      • For instance, many climate scientists don't believe 1.5 Deg. C target is plausible anymore, but don't say so in public.
      • That reticence is due to fear of violating accepted scientific social norms,
      • being labeled alarmist and risk losing their job.
      • That creates a collective cognitive dissonance that acts as a feedback signal
      • for society to implement change at a dangerously slow pace
      • and to not spend the necessary resources to prepare for the harm already baked in.
      • The result of this choice dissonance is that
      • there is no collective sense of an emergency or a global wartime mobilisation scale of collective behaviour.
      • Our actions are not commensurate to the permanent emergency state we are now in.
      • The appropriate response that is suggested is for the entire climate science community to form a coalition that creates a new kind of peer reviewed publishing and reporting
      • that publicly responds to the current and live knowledge that is being discovered every day.
      • This is done from a planetary and permanent emergency perspective in order to eliminate the dangerous delays that create the wrong human collective behavioural responses.
    1. HOW CAN CLIMATE SCIENTISTS ALLOW THEMSELVES TO TELL THE TRUTH?
      • The author suggests 5 different steps that will enable and empower scientists to tell the truth at scale:
          1. Admit that rigid adherence to their academic methods, in this astonishingly rapid context, leads directly to their failure to communicate the truth. For one thing, it is widely held on the scientific community that staying under 1.5 Deg. C is no longer plausible.
          1. Form a unified global coalition. Work with communications and psychology experts to present as accurate and as current information as possible
          1. Coalition takes actions to announce a permcrisis requiring responding to new live information in real time, bot wait every 7 years for the next IPCC report
    1. Most future climate scenarios envisage large-scale deployment of so-called “negative emissions,” where we suck CO2 out of the atmosphere in order to keep warming below 2°C. One proposed method for achieving that is “enhanced weathering”—accelerated silicate weathering done by grinding up silicate rock and spreading it on agricultural fields to react with CO2 from the air and fertilize plants at the same time. Brantley’s work shows that for such efforts to be successful, those fields would need a good supply of water and—crucially—would probably need to be plowed regularly to expose fresh minerals to the air. “If you're not going to be turning it over, you'll start to precipitate secondary minerals, and… most of the surface area could be occluded from reaction,” said Brantley.

      So basically enhanced weathering is much less likely to help us, as it would largely scab over, rather than expose the rest of the minerals

    2. Over geological time, those landscape proportions have changed in response to shifting tectonic plates. This has changed how efficient silicate weathering has been at removing the CO2 emitted by volcanoes, thereby allowing high CO2 levels and warm climates at times, like in the Cretaceous, or lower CO2 levels and a cool climate when plate tectonics was building lots of “kinetic-limited” mountainous landscapes, like over the last few million years.

      Wow, so when there are more mountains, more CO2 is drawn down as there's more terrain to expose the rock for weathering

    1. The most telling real-world results came from the final stock count. For example, no Felix product is more beloved than its best-selling meatballs, yet with customers encouraged to make decisions on climate value, they remained on the shelves, whereas Felix’s new, plant-based meatball alternatives had sold out. Shoppers had learned that the classic dish they had eaten since childhood might not, after all, be the best option for their own children’s future.
      • the results that showed that
      • their Felix brand followers rejected their most popular product, the Felux meatball
      • once the CO2e was show,
      • shows the success of clear labeling of CO2e
      • and the gamification strategy
    2. The way in which shoppers were presented with practical climate information was repeatedly commented on as a brilliantly simple idea that people felt ought to be the norm in food retail. Plus, we saw repeat visits – parents so impressed by the concept’s educative value that they came back a second time with their children.As one shopper shared: “I didn’t expect this when walking in. The visuals with the three different bags explained everything so well. I learned so much more compared to, say, a lecture.”
      • campaign was highly successfully
      • customers learned so much from the simplicity
    3. The results told us Felix’s demographic really wanted to shop for climate-friendly food brands, but found the sustainability information too confusing and – perhaps as a result – believed sustainable grocery shopping to be too expensive.Our strategy was clear: Give shoppers better information on the climate impact of Felix products and, in the process, demonstrate how easy it is to make climate-friendly choices when products are clearly labelled. We called it The Climate Store (Klimatbutiken) – the world’s first grocery shop in which the ‘price’ of food would be based on its carbon footprint.
      • Climate Supermarket
      • Climate store
      • Survey showed consumers were confused by sustainability information
      • consumers were left with the belief that shopping sustainably was too expensive
      • One answer to simplify the complexity that was confusing people was uniform labeling of grocery products with their CO2e and a hard limit (18.9Kg CO2e) that consumer must stay under each week to meet Paris agreement
    1. a new and insidious tactic is threatening to undermine our efforts to build a more sustainable future: climate delay

      = climate delay - redirecting responsibility onto individuals - advocating non-transformative solutions - focusing on negatives of climate action - wokewashing and white saviorism - doomism - giving up

    2. dismissives

      = definition - dismissives - this is the most common form of climate denialism. - It isn't aggressive, but passive - dismissives are aware of climate change but - don't care - avoid it altogether

    3. Climate deniers are victims not villains
      • = Title:
        • Climate deniers are victims not villains
    1. Make the case that the status quo is inequitable

      Change is tough but needed. It may not directly help those who participate in surveys of campus climate.

    1. two social drivers actively impair global efforts to achieve 1.5 C. Those are corporate responses and global consumption patterns
      • two major social drivers prevent achieving 1.5 C.
        • corporate responses
        • global consumption patterns
    2. Most of them are, in general, moving in the right direction. They just aren’t aggressive enough yet to be consistent with the kind of transformative social change required to achieve the 1.5 C target.
      • climate change actions
      • Most of the climate actions are moving in the right direction.
      • but they just aren’t aggressive enough yet to achieve the 1.5 C target.
      • right direction, wrong speed
    1. To provide an indication of the projected timing of climate depar-ture under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, we havedeveloped an index that determines the year when the values of agiven climatic variable exceed the bounds of historical variabilityfor a particular location (Fig. 1a).
      • To provide an indication of the projected timing of
      • = climate departure
      • under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios,
      • the authors have developed an index that determines
      • the year when the values of a given climatic variable exceed the bounds of historical variability
      • for a particular location
      • = ABSTRACT
      • = Ecological and societal disruptions - by modern = climate change - are critically determined
      • by the time frame over which climates shift beyond historical analogues.
      • This paper introduces a new index of
      • the year when the projected mean climate of a given location
      • moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.
      • This index is called = "climate departure"
      • The study employs data from 1860 to 2005 as the historical period,
      • this index has a global mean of:
        • 2069 (618 years s.d.) for near-surface air temperature under an emissions stabilization scenario
        • 2047 (614 years s.d.) under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario.
      • Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries,
      • this highlights the vulnerability of global biodiversity and the limited governmental capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change. Our findings shed light on the urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions if climates potentially harmful to biodiversity and society are to be prevented
    1. I agree as I have heard from many young people that they aren't voting because they don't trust the politicians. They hear their promises and then when they get elected they don't deliver on those promises, so young people feel helpless to change the system.
      • The young are alienated from voting
      • Q: What are their options?
    1. In the first edition of the Hamburg Climate Fu-tures Outlook published in 2021
      • = First Edition of Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook (2021)

        • : Question: Is it plausible that the world will reach deep decarbonization by 2050?
          • Answer: No
      • = Second Edition of Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook (2023)

        • : Question: What affects the plausibility of attaining the Paris Agreement temperature goals?
    2. Lacking thefeasibility of a robust probabilistic assessment, wehave developed an alternative framework to assessthe plausibility of climate futures (Chapter 2).
      • alternative method for assessing plausibility of = climate futures called the = social plausibility framework
    3. based on present knowledge of social drivers andphysical processe

      climate futures based upon: - social drivers - physical processes

    4. Hamburg Climate FuturesOutlook

      = Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2023

    5. Among the many possible climatic futures, not allare plausible.
      • There are a number of possible = climate futures
      • but not all are plausible
    1. Over 50% of people reported feeling powerless or helpless in the previously mentioned study.
      • = eco-anxiety
      • = climate change anxiety
      • 50% of people reported feeling helpless
    1. The survey — the largest of its kind — asked 10,000 young people in 10 countries how they felt about climate change and government responses to it.The results, released in a preprint on 14 September1, found that most respondents were concerned about climate change, with nearly 60% saying they felt ‘very worried’ or ‘extremely worried’. Many associated negative emotions with climate change — the most commonly chosen were ‘sad’, ‘afraid’, ‘anxious’, ‘angry’ and ‘powerless’ (see ‘Climate anxiety’). Overall, 45% of participants said their feelings about climate change impacted their daily lives.
      • = climate anxiety
      • = ecoanxiety
      • feelings of = helplessness, = powerless
    1. real-life situations can be much more complicated, the authors’ model allows for the exact 25 percent tipping point number to change based on circumstances. Memory length is a key variable, and relates to how entrenched a belief or behavior is.
      • 25% social tipping point threshold is adjustable
      • depending on the variables of the context
      • = question - how do we apply this adjustability for complex contagion such as climate change norms?
  5. Jan 2023
    1. Agreements are subjected to climate agreements and not the other way around that could be 00:53:10 an option

      !- policy recommendation : make all global trade agreements subject to legally binding climate agreements, not the other way around

    2. we have individual capitalists who try 00:48:45 to make the most profit and this is linked to their capital and productivity so to achieve more in less time and 00:48:57 productivity is linked to energy [Music] the only source of energy to increase profit is carbon oil and gas and this has resulted in a change in our 00:49:15 atmosphere we have to put an entities if we wish to live in our planet can our capitalism do this based on the current data we won't be able to do so 00:49:28 therefore perhaps we should do the following reflection if capitalism is unable to do so either Humanity will die with it or 00:49:42 Humanity will overcome capitalism so that we can live in our planet

      !- Urrego : Key Point - Can capitalism rapidly detour away from fossil fuels? The current data indicates no. So either Humanity does our it drops capitalism

    3. you've had problems in your area where you tried to get legislation and the oil and gas industry came in and fought you right in my state same thing every piece 00:44:08 of pro-climate legislation at the national level the regional level the local level Municipal level the oil and gas industry and the coal industry they come in and fight it tooth and nail and 00:44:21 they use their legacy network of political influence and wealth to stop progress the rest of us have to reform these International institutions so that the people of this world and including 00:44:34 the young people of this world can say we are now in charge of our own destiny we're going to stop using the sky as an open sewer we're going to save the future and give people hope we can do it 00:44:47 and remember that political will is itself a renewable resource

      !- oil and gas legislation : industry lawyers at every level

    4. you've got a climate denier in charge of 00:42:13 the World Bank so why are you surprised that the World Bank is completely failing to do its job

      !- world bank : leader is a climate denier

    5. we are today concluding that we're outside even of the just boundary on climate

      !- climate boundary : currently exceeding

    6. within the next decade we are at risk of pushing ourselves outside of the safe 00:10:15 boundary of 1.5 degrees Celsius

      !- 1.5 deg C boundary : at risk of exceeding in the next decade

    7. if we continue with our greenhouse gas emissions then by 2070 as many as 3 00:03:25 billion people will live in uninhabitable zones and mostly in poorer countries and this basically means that these people who probably have the least contribution to the climate problem have 00:03:39 been the ones that are most exposed

      !- quotable : 3 billion people at risk by 2070 - mostly people who has contributed the least to the problem

    1. can have a pretty outsized  carbon footprint and I'm wondering how   you reconcile the vast amount of computational  power necessary to accomplish this work and its   negative impact on the environment and whether  or not this is something you all are considering

      Question: has the project considered the energy impact?

    1. adrienne maree brown wrote not long ago that there is an element of science fiction in climate action: “We are shaping the future we long for and have not yet experienced. I believe that we are in an imagination battle.”

      This is how I've read SF for years, both near future and space opera. As mood board and thinking input.

      adrienne maree brown https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adrienne_Maree_Brown in turn inspired by SF author Octavia Butler (have I read her xenogenesis trilogy?)

    1. The moral vocabulary that climate activists and public health professionals use is not able to activate the moral and political imagination that effective ecological and health governance require. To respond to the recurring crises that are coming, the governance of complex societies must be able to reach the tap roots latent in their own moral ethos, politics, and motivational structures.

      !- identification : of failings of current climate activists

    2. People newly faced with the precarity of future expectations and the loss of attachments to habitual ways of life tighten their grip on them, no matter how objectively unsustainable, and turn toward blaming the other, the victims, rather than extending empathy and solidarity toward them.

      !- good observation on psychology of confronting loss : climate change - when confronted with the loss of liberty (give me liberty or give me death), we tighten our grip<br /> - our climate denialism increases in proportion to the perceived degree of loss of liberty

    3. Much of what they do can be done without eliciting the ire of nation-states. Bike shares, pedestrian zones, insulated buildings, renovated port facilities, congestion fees, car emission limits, furnace specifications, fuel upgrades (from oil to gas to alternative energy) and white paint roofs, for example, are only some of the innovations city officials can promote to effect significant reductions in emissions and pollutants.

      !- cities actions : can be done without eliciting ire of nation state - bike shares - pedestrian zones - insulated buildings - renovated ports - congestion fees - car emission limits - furnace specifications - fuel upgrades - white paint roofs - cities are the right level for focusing on effective global climate action

    4. here states have grown dysfunctional and sovereignty has become an obstacle to global democratic action—as when the United States (or China, France, or Canada) refuses to compromise its sovereignty by permitting the international monitoring of carbon emissions on its soil—cities have increasingly proven themselves capable of deliberative democratic action on behalf of sustainability, as they have actually done in intercity associations like the C-40 or ICLEI. If presidents and prime ministers cannot summon the will to work for a sustainable planet, mayors can. If citizens of the province and nation think ideologically and divisively, neighbors and citizens of the towns and cities think publicly and cooperatively.

      !- claim : cities can mitigate corrupted democracy and foster global cooperation - ie. C40 or ICLEI (also Covenant of Mayors) - cities are not plagued by the problems of state actors who cannot reach any meaningful agreement at COP conferences

    5. A deliberative democracy in which competent citizens participate in policy decisions about the long-term challenges facing their society is an ideal setting for confronting the threat of climate change. Democratic deliberation is designed to help selfish individuals reformulate their interests in the language of the communities to which they belong—to allow them to move from “me thinking” to “we thinking” and to substitute long-term, future-minded thinking for the short-term, present-minded, special-interest thinking. It allows private opinion to be shaped by shared belief and the discipline of inter-subjective (“scientific”) knowledge.

      !- Key concept : deliberative democracy of competent, participative citizens driving long term policy decisions is ideal for confronting climate change - transform self-centered individual to group-centered - shift from Me to We (invert the M) - shift from short term to long term thinking - intersubjective scientific knowledge

    1. Environmentalists say bulldozing the village to expand the Garzweiler mine would result in huge amounts of greenhouse gas emissions. The government and utility company RWE argue the coal is needed to ensure Germany's energy security.Police officers use water cannons on protesters in Luetzerath on Saturday. (Thilo Schmuelgen/Reuters)The regional and national governments, both of which include the environmentalist Green party, reached a deal with RWE last year allowing it to destroy the abandoned village in return for ending coal use by 2030, rather than 2038.Some speakers at Saturday's demonstration assailed the Greens, whose leaders argue that the deal fulfils many of the environmentalists' demands and saved five other villages from demolition.What on Earth?Why the reversal of a decades-old coal policy sparked controversy in Alberta"It's very weird to see the German government, including the Green party, make deals and compromise with companies like RWE, with fossil fuel companies, when they should rather be held accountable for all the damage and destruction they have caused," Thunberg said."My message to the German government is that they should stop what's happening here immediately, stop the destruction, and ensure climate justice for everyone."

      Assuming the facts are correct and complete here, it's surprisingly naive of Thunberg to take this view. One unknown is whether the displaced villagers were suitably compensated for being evicted. Still, taking 8 years off the deadline to end coal use - that's a pretty massive win and could set the stage for even more in the future.

    1. Finally, statistics should reinforce the fact that any patterning found cannot be explained as accidental.

      It is possible that the variations in patterning may tell us about the relative timing of the data. Perhaps the earliest data points may have been anecdotal evidence that was improved over time.

      Of course it could be the case that migrations, births, etc. may have shifted somewhat over time.

      What does the general climate data from these areas and this time period show? Is there variability in this time period?

    1. i think climate change is going to put  a strong pressure in the sense that you know i   think when people see more and more catastrophic  climatic events you know i think attitudes toward   globalization and attitudes toward inequality in  general you know can change very quickly because   00:43:25 you know at some point i think people will  not find it funny at all to have all these   billionaires you know giving lessons using  their private jet doing your space tourism   et cetera you know at some point you know i think  nobody is going to find this funny at all and   there can be a very quick and and fast you know  complete change in attitude following this

      !- Thomas Piketty : climate change impacts on inequality - climate change extreme events can very quickly cause the public attitudes to the elites to deteriorate very rapidly

  6. Dec 2022
    1. While the average human is responsible for an estimated 5t 퐶푂2푒per year,2 the authors trained a Transformer (big) model [136] withneural architecture search and estimated that the training procedureemitted 284t of 퐶푂2. Training a single BERT base model (withouthyperparameter tuning) on GPUs was estimated to require as muchenergy as a trans-American flight.

      Energy consumption on NLP model training

      Training a model cost 57 times the annual CO2 emissions of a single person.

    1. Below, I pose four critical questions. How the Biden administration answers these questions will say a lot about whether Justice40 sets a new marker for environmental justice in the United States—or if the promise of Justice40 is squandered.

      Follow developments with Justice40 and implications for climate justice movement.

    1. Splooting, or more technically heat dumping, is a process through which animals stretch their hind legs back and lie on cooler surfaces to reduce their body heat. It’s commonly done by squirrels and sometimes, by dogs, and it’s no reason for concern, it’s just a sign that the animal is hot and trying to cool off.
    1. Rising greenhouse gas concentrations have resulted in detectable trends in average climate (particularly temperature), but also in changes in the timing of key seasons in some locations and in daily weather variability, including extreme weather and climate events like heat waves and droughts [10,11,12]. It is primarily through these changes in weather and seasonality, rather than through gradual, long-term trends, that climate change is likely to influence malaria risk. These impacts on malaria could occur both directly, as optimum climate ranges and critical thresholds for vector and parasite development are crossed, and indirectly, as society grapples with the disruptive effects of changes in weather patterns and seasonal cycles.
    2. Climate can influence malaria directly, through transmission dynamics, or indirectly, through myriad pathways including the many socioeconomic factors that underpin malaria risk. These indirect effects are largely unpredictable and so are not included in climate-driven disease models. Such models have been effective at predicting transmission from weeks to months ahead. However, due to several well-documented limitations, climate projections cannot accurately predict the medium- or long-term effects of climate change on malaria, especially on local scales. Long-term climate trends are shifting disease patterns, but climate shocks (extreme weather and climate events) and variability from sub-seasonal to decadal timeframes have a much greater influence than trends and are also more easily integrated into control programmes.
    1. Trends in some regions are clear, but insect biology, climate quirks, and public health preparedness will determine whether outbreaks occur.
    1. For effective vector control, the influence of climatic factors on vector-borne diseases should be studied since the mosquito vectors are also sensitive to the alterations in the climatic condition and the existing vector control approaches are inadequate to combat with the adverse effects of global warming.
    1. Undermining the Concept of Environmental Risk

      By the mid-1990s, the Institute of Economic Affairs had extended its work on Risk Assessment (RA). More specifically, the head of IEA’s Environment Unit Roger Bate was interested in undermining the concept of “environmental risk”, especially in relation to key themes, such as climate change and pesticides, and second hand smoke.

    1. Leaks show attempts to water down UN climate report, Greenpeace says Some countries tried to remove findings threatening their economic interests from an IPCC report, documents seen by Greenpeace have revealed. The report comes before a critical round of UN climate talks.

      Government lobbying (economic interests) to water down UN climate report

  7. Nov 2022
    1. A 2020 study by the European Union found that contrails and other non-CO2 aircraft emissions warm the planet twice as much as the carbon dioxide released by airplanes.

      From the intermediate linked blog post:

      Using a derivative metric of the Global Warming Potential (100), the GWP, aviation emissions are currently warming the climate at approximately three times the rate of that associated with CO2 emissions alone.

      pp. 35-36 of EASA report for European Commission, (2020). Updated analysis of the non-CO2 climate impacts of aviation and potential policy measures pursuant to the EU Emissions Trading System Directive Article 30(4). https://eur-lex.europa.eu/resource.html?uri=cellar:7bc666c9-2d9c-11eb-b27b-01aa75ed71a1.0001.02/DOC_1&format=PDF

  8. Oct 2022
    1. Skatten på arbete sänks med inriktning på låg- och medelinkomsttagare, liksom skatten på pension. För att stötta hushållen ytterligare sänks skatten på sparande. Hushållen kompenseras för de höga elpriserna och drivmedelspriserna sänks kraftigt, bland annat genom att reduktionsplikten sänks till EU:s miniminivå.

      Den sista meningen är den enda som förklaras. Hur ska de förstnämnda sänkta skatterna kompenseras? Med andra ord, hur ska staten tjäna in pengar på skattesänkningarna?

      Dessutom, reduktionspliktens sänkning är oerhört farlig ur klimatperspektiv.

      Inget nämns om transporter.

    1. Naturskyddsföreningen är starkt kritisk till den tillträdande regeringens programförklaring. – Jag känner mig både besviken och djupt oroad. Utifrån vad som hittills framkommer så verkar det vara väldigt tunt med politik som tar itu med miljöproblemen. Istället riskerar problemen att förvärras med de åtgärder som läggs fram, säger Karin Lexén, generalsekreterare Naturskyddsföreningen i ett pressmeddelande. Enligt programförklaringen ska miljöprövningen av vattenkraft pausas. – Det är oansvarigt. Omprövningen av den svenska vattenkraften genomförs för att förse kraftverken med moderna miljövillkor, det är ett måste för att Sverige ska kunna leva upp till sina internationella åtaganden om skydd av biologisk mångfald och EU:s vattendirektiv. Sverige har vid upprepade tillfällen fått kritik från EU-kommissionen i frågan, säger Karin Lexén.
    2. Men förutom elektrifieringen nämns inget om transporter som står för en stor del av Sveriges nationella utsläpp, cirka en tredjedel. Det brukar lyftas fram som ett nyckelområde när klimatmål ska nås. – Jag är väldigt förvånad att transporter inte får ett enda ord i avtalet och närmast bestört över att det inte är ett av de sju prioriterade områden som lyftes fram, säger Mattias Goldmann, klimatexpert och en av grundarna till 2030-sekretariatet.
    1. In a recent paper published in Nature Climate Change, scientists found that major sea-level rise from the melting of the Greenland ice cap is now ‘inevitable’ even if the burning of fossil fuels were to halt overnight. Using satellite observations of Greenland ice loss and ice cap from 2000 to 2019, the team found the losses will lead to a minimum rise of 27 cm regardless of climate change.

      A great example of the lag that large, complex systems exhibit when responding to significant input changes.

      Lag is something that humans are woefully weak at recognizing and understanding. This, and other systems concepts are what we need to add to the curriculum at all levels of education, to change this very significant shortcoming of "common knowledge".

    1. Peter Kalmus, Data Scientist, Jet Propulsion Laboratory: [Update 23 August 2019: This comment was updated for clarity.] What science projects under plausible scenarios of human courses of action is varying degrees of further disruption of fundamental planetary life support systems (e.g. water, agriculture, ecosystems) needed to support the nearly 8 billion humans currently living on Earth. This disruption poses some degree of existential risk to civilization as we know it—with the amount of risk likely still depending on how rapidly we reduce radiative and ecological forcings—but these degrees of risk are not quantified with any certainty. Ice models have had difficulty projecting the melting rate of the Greenland ice sheet; predicting the mechanism of the collapse of civilization and the number of lives lost as a result is a far more complex problem, and there is no scientific consensus that six billion lives will be lost. On the other hand, models have tended to underestimate ice sheet melting, and model projections in general have been systematically “conservative.” I unfortunately don’t see how the possibility of six billion deaths can be ruled out with confidence, especially when the intrinsically unpredictable but real possibility of climate-related war (which could include nuclear weapons) is considered. In other words, Hallam’s claim is speculative, but given the depth and rapidity of anthropogenic change, so is confidently ruling it out. While I don’t agree that “science predicts” the death of six billion people, in my opinion Hallam’s broader warning has qualitative merit and in the context of a lay translation of risk his use of “six billion” might reasonably be interpreted as figurative, an illustration of a worst-case scenario (again, that I don’t think can be ruled out). Whether to interpret this claim literally or figuratively is a question perhaps best left to humanists. Given this ambiguity I judge it “unrateable.”

      He is basically saying this is plausible. And his is the most sensible answer here by far IMO.

      The whole point of "bad case" scenarios is that they involve feedback effects and breakdown of "civilization" as we know it.

      This article as a whole is an illustration of the narrow, conventional thinking.

      NB: i came here via https://passivehouseaccelerator.com/articles/building-our-solarpunk-future where they are citing this as evidence future won't be too bad:

      For many of us, it’s all too easy to imagine the terrible, particularly as we witness the damage caused by just 1.2°C of global heating today. We’re also bombarded by Doomist messages.

      For example, Roger Hallam, the co-founder of Extinction Rebellion, recently said this of climate change: “I am talking about the slaughter, death, and starvation of 6 billion people this century. That’s what the science predicts.”

      Only that’s not what the science predicts. According to the fact-checker website, Climate Feedback: “Research shows that continuing climate change results in a broad array of serious threats to humans and other species. However, counter to Hallam’s statement, published studies have not predicted 6 billion human deaths this century and there is no credible mechanism referred to justify how this could happen.”

  9. Sep 2022
    1. Leaving aside those far-right doubts about the existence of a climateproblem, any government that wanted to cut carbon emissions substantiallycould not avoid implementing much tougher emissions regulations andhigher business taxes. But any government that did so in advance of othergovernments would only force its corporations to move production andthousands of jobs elsewhere.

      !- example : DGC - also, Yellow jackets in France and working class in Sri Lanka paralyzed their respective country due to rising fuel costs - the precariat class is threatened and are also caught in the wicked problem

    1. Pollin: Neither negative emissions technologies nor nuclear power can likely contribute significantly to building an alternative global clean energy infrastructure. Indeed, it is more likely that they will create still more severe problems. Let’s start with nuclear.

      Notes on some problems with continuing to use nuclear power instead of switching to clean power.

    2. Renewable energy critics argue that wind and solar are not reliable sources because of their variability. Others argue that wind farms encroach on pristine environment and destroy a country’s natural habitat, as is the case with the installation of thousands of wind turbines on scores of Greek islands in the Aegean Sea. How would you respond to such concerns, and are there ways around them?
    1. "Respondents across all countries were worried about climate change (59% were very or extremely worried and 84% were at least moderately worried). More than 50% reported each of the following emotions: sad, anxious, angry, powerless, helpless, and guilty. More than 45% of respondents said their feelings about climate change negatively affected their daily life and functioning, and many reported a high number of negative thoughts about climate change (eg, 75% said that they think the future is frightening and 83% said that they think people have failed to take care of the planet).

      !- for : Social Tipping Points - Tipping Point Festival - Meaning crisis

    1. one of the 00:10:51 things is that our brains were set up for dealing with about a hundred people at a time living by our wits hunting and gathering and dying in the same world we 00:11:03 were born into for hundreds of thousands of years there's no concept of progress in our genes we just don't have it but like all animals we have an enormous set 00:11:17 of genetic apparatus to make us good copers anything happens to us we can find a way of being resilient about it and adapting to it we're copers and 00:11:29 adapters and so when we come up against difficulties our tendency is to cope with these difficulties it's like working for a company go into a company 00:11:42 and the company seems sort of screwed up maybe you can quit you can cope but your chances of actually changing the company are very low because nobody will listen 00:11:56 to reason right that is not what the company is there for they are there for their a task this is something that engelbart the inventor of the mouse pointed out years ago that companies are 00:12:10 devoted to their area a task which is what they think they were about most companies do not have a very good be process which is supposed to look at the 00:12:21 a tasks and make them more efficient but almost no companies have a see process which questions the tasks are our goals still reasonable our processes still reasonable that's the last thing it gets 00:12:35 question

      !- applies to : climate change - many are adopting and trying to take a coping strategy instead of one of fundamental change - if coping is the only strategy, it becomes a failing one when whole system change is required

    2. how many people have seen curves that look like these progress against time right everywhere reading 00:48:14 scores test scores people love these yay oh no yay oh no it's bad because our 00:48:32 nervous system is only set up for relative change and in fact there's cause for cheering if that's the threshold but in fact for reading 00:48:43 threshold is this this is all oh no doesn't matter whether it goes up or not because there are many many things that where you have to get to the real 00:48:58 version of the thing before you're doing it at all in the 21st century it doesn't have help to read just a little bit you have to be fluent at it so this is a 00:49:09 huge problem and once you draw the threshold in there immediately converts this thing that looked wonderful into a huge qualitative gap and the gap is 00:49:20 widening and we have two concepts that are enemies of what we need to do perfect and better right so better is a 00:49:36 way of getting fake success we had improvement see it all the time it's the ultimate quarterly report we had improvements here and perfect is 00:49:51 tough to get in this world so both of those are really bad so what you want is what's actually needed and the exquisite skill here which I'm going to use these 00:50:06 two geniuses Thakur and Engels to labor it I'm going to call that the sweet spot the way you make progress here is you pick the thing that is just over that threshold that is qualitatively better 00:50:21 than all the rest of the crap you can do you can spend billions turning around and once you do that you widen up you give yourself a little blue plane to 00:50:34 operate in and for a while everything you do in there is something that is actually going to be meaningful

      !- similar to : climate change solutions - Good metaphor for climate change progress

    1. a big setback for the Republican-led states that have been suing the president over the metric, known as the social cost of carbon: a measure, in dollars, of how much damage results from emitting 1 ton of carbon dioxide. Being able to discuss the damage in terms of a precise dollar amount is important because it allows policymakers to show when the benefits of preventing global warming are greater than the costs. At some point it just becomes cheaper to switch to sustainable systems instead of coping with all the wildfires, floods, droughts, and heat waves that result from unsustainable systems.

      The idea of social cost of carbon (SCC) is fascinating: seemingly it aims to make the social costs of climate crisis objective by giving them a price tag. But then it becomes clear that the price tag depends on political / value judgements concerning the future, on which the idea of "discounting" depends.

    1. let's put the electrical power systems together these electrical power 00:22:29 systems that this is actually on the low side because most industrial action happens with the consumption of coal and gas on site and then it's converted to energy on site this is what's just been drawn off the power grid 00:22:42 so there's a vast amount of energy associated with manufacturing that is not included here and that is actually a huge piece of work to include that so these numbers i'm showing you are very much on the low side 00:22:55 so we're going to put it all together we need 36 000 terawatt hours all there abouts that's a that's a very low estimate

      !- key insight : minimum power of energy transition, excluding the large amount of energy for industrial processes ! - for : energy transition, degrowth, green growth

    2. assessment of extra capacity required of alternative energy electrical power systems to completely replace fossil fuels

      Title: Assessment of extra capacity required of alternative energy electrical power systems to completely replace fossil fuels Author: Prof. Simon Michaux, Geological Survey of Finland (GTK) Year: 2022

  10. Aug 2022
    1. This comes at a momentous time in Australia’s history as we confront the devastating consequences of whitefella knowledge systems and ways of thinking that have led inexorably to a combination of global warming and environmental degradation that is threatening the viability of human habitation in vast areas of the world.
    1. Ausführlicher Überblick zu den erwarteten Klimaveränderungen auf kroatischem Staatsgebiet bis 2040, mit einem Ausblick auf 2070. Berücksichtigt vor allem RCP4.5, aber auch RCP8.5. Macht (bei sehr oberflächlichem Durchsehen mit mangelnden Sprachkenntnissen) an manchen Stellen einen etwas verharmlosenden Eindruck.

    1. A good layperson's overview of one effort to increase cloud albedo to counteract climate change. I think that lowering insolation is somehow missing the point of combatting climate change, but it's a legitimate approach that still needs a lot of research.

      What's particularly good about this article is how it manages to demonstrate how complex the problem is without smothering the reader in technobabble.

  11. Jul 2022
    1. Should something new be experienced, it will be unexpected, may beoverwhelming and may not fit into any meaningful representation or expression at all. The new assuch, the possible source of transformation, regeneration and vision, does not submit to the orderimposed by the personware, it is naturally on a collision course with it and a source to various degreesof cognitive dissonance. As such, it poses a threat that a well-functioning cognitive system mustmediate.

      !- for : climate change, rapid whole system change * This is a common response of people conditioned to the status quo personware - it is overwhelming and threatening * Defensiveness and conservatism to preserve the familiar elements of the status quo is a common response, including all forms of climate denialism * Early stages of pandemic in which people were afraid to don masks for fear of being ostracized

    2. governance rather encompasses all localdecision-makers as well, as it is actually almost entirely within their own respective dominions ofcontrol where the overall success or failure is determined.

      All local decision-makers are included in the global governance of climate change as well.

    3. For example, in respect to the goal of reducing the global emissions of carbon dioxide, the relevantsystem of governance is not limited to those who conclude that there is a global risk, those whoaccept or reject the conclusion, those who formulate objectives, those who choose to adhere to or toignore them, who conceive of regulations, who choose to implement them or not, who determineprogress, decline or failures, those who select means by which to influence the desired local industrialinvestment, or consumption choices and so on.

      In other words, the role of governance goes beyond the traditional decision-makers, and is more inclusive. Who else gets to participate?

    4. Could social systems be finally reprogrammed, at long last, ‘as if peoplemattered’ [ 8]?
      • They are currently programmed by minority power holders to serve their interest.
      • Many individuals and projects are trying to do this
      • Climate change is a classic example of power holders dictating the agenda
    1. There are temperature ceilings that humans and mammals (and many other animals) cannot survive, if breached. What those limits are, and what happens when they are crossed, will have profound implications for agriculture and biodiversity in a warming world.
    2. What happens if the world gets too hot for animals to survive? By Matthew Huber | July 20, 2022 
      • Title: What happens if the world gets too hot for animals to survive?
      • Author: Matthew Huber
      • Date: July 20, 2022
  12. bafybeihfoajtasczfz4s6u6j4mmyzlbn7zt4f7hpynjdvd6vpp32zmx5la.ipfs.dweb.link bafybeihfoajtasczfz4s6u6j4mmyzlbn7zt4f7hpynjdvd6vpp32zmx5la.ipfs.dweb.link
    1. The projected timing of climate departurefrom recent variability
      • Title: he projected timing of climate departure from recent variability
      • Author: Camilo Mora et al.
      • Date: 2013*
    2. Although several studies have documented theareas on Earth where unprecedented climates is likely to occur inresponse to ongoing greenhouse gas emissions24,25 , our understandingof climate change still lacks a precise indication of the time at which theclimate of a given location will shift wholly outside the range of his-torical precedents.To provide an indication of the projected timing of climate depar-ture under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, we havedeveloped an index that determines the year when the values of agiven climatic variable exceed the bounds of historical variabilityfor a particular location (Fig. 1a). We emphasize that although ourindex commonly identifies future dates, this does not imply thatclimate change is not already occurring. In fact, our index projectswhen ongoing climate change signals the start of a radically differentclimate.

      Climate departure for a specific location on the planet is defined as the year when the values of a given climatic variable exceed the bounds of historical variability.

    3. Climate is a primary driver of biological processes, operating fromindividuals to ecosystems, and affects several aspects of human life.Therefore, climates without modern precedents could cause large andpotentially serious impacts on ecological and social systems 1–5 . Forinstance, species whose persistence is shaped by the climate canrespond by shifting their geographical ranges 4–7 , remaining in placeand adapting 5,8 , or becoming extinct 8–11 . Shifts in species distributionsand abundances can increase the risk of extinction 12 , alter communitystructure 3 and disrupt ecological interactions and the functioning ofecosystems. Changing climates could also affect the following: humanwelfare, through changes in the supply of food 13 and water 14,15 ; humanhealth 16, through wider spread of infectious vector-borne diseases 17,18,through heat stress19 and through mental illness20; the economy, throughchanges in goods and services21,22; and national security as a result ofpopulation shifts, heightened competition for natural resources, viol-ent conflict and geopolitical instability23. Although most ecological andsocial systems have the ability to adapt to a changing climate, themagnitude of disruption in both ecosystems and societies will bestrongly determined by the time frames in which the climate will reachunprecedented states1

      As climate departure is projected to occur under all IPCC RCP scenarios, this implies profound changes will take place everywhere on the planet.

      The biosphere will react to this unprecedented shift in equally unprecedented ways. Each species has a comfort zone temperature band to exist within. If the temperature falls outside that zone, it can remain in place and adapt, shift geographical location (migration) or go extinct.

      In an ecosystem, species all depend on each other. When a number of these shift their patterns, it will affect the others, increasing total ecosystem disruptions. Since human activity is dependent on nature, this will also ripple up to humans in a variety of ways.

    4. Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over whichclimates shift beyond historical analogues. Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate ofa given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gasemissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 (618 years s.d.) fornear-surface air temperature under an emissions stabilization scenario and 2047 (614 years s.d.) under a ‘business-as-usual’scenario. Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries, highlighting thevulnerability of global biodiversity and the limited governmental capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change.Our findings shed light on the urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions if climates potentially harmful to biodiversityand society are to be prevented.

      Read this abstract and let the profound implications sink in!

      In other words, climate departure will occur REGARDLESS OF WHICH RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) is taken, whether it is the best or the worst path as defined by IPCC, climate departure will happen! (Climate departure is defined in the second paragraph of the paper) Using historical data between 1860 and 2005 for defining normative climate around the globe, If the worst IPCC emissions scenario (RCP85) happens, climate departure (projected near-surface air temp of the average location on earth) around the globe at the average location happens by 2047 (+/- 14 years). if the BEST IPCC emissions scenario (RCP45) happens, then.climate departure still happens but moves beyond historical variability by 2069 (+/-18 years)

      In other words, NO MATTER WHAT RCP of the ones IPCC publishes we take, climate departure is going to happen! How does the planet plan for such a drastic shift of every ecosystem on the globe? If it is unavoidable, then resiliency will be a key intervention.

    1. So what can we make of politicians who continue to argue that ‘1.5°C is still alive’? Are they misinformed or are they simply lying?I believe many are in denial about the types of solutions the climate crisis demands. Rather than do the – admittedly – very difficult political work of eking out our supplies of fossil fuels while accelerating a just transition to post-carbon societies, politicians are going all out on technological salvation. This is a new form of climate denial, which involves imagining large-scale carbon dioxide removal that will clean up the carbon pollution that we continue to pump into the atmosphere. While it may seem much safer to stick to the script and say that it is still physically possible to limit warming to no more than 1.5°C, while pointing out that the scale of change demands much more political will, I believe that this can no longer be a credible response to the climate crisis.We have warmed the climate by 1.2°C since pre-industrial periods. If emissions stay flat at current levels, then in around nine years the carbon budget for 1.5°C will be exhausted. And, of course, emissions are not flat – they are surging. 2021 saw the second-largest annual increase ever recorded, driven by the rebound in economic activity after Coronavirus lockdowns. We did not ‘build back better’.The clock has been stuck at five minutes to midnight for decades. Alarms have been continuing to sound. There are only so many times you can hit the snooze button.

      Going all out on technological salvation is a form of climate denialism.

      We are at 1.2 Deg C and emissions have climbed after rebounding after Covid. If they flatline for the next nine years, we will hit 1.5 Deg C.

    2. We Need to Stop Pretending we can Limit Global Warming to 1.5°C

      Title: We Need to Stop Pretending we can Limit Global Warming to 1.5°C Author: James Dyke Date: 6 July 2022

    1. all kinds of regressions along the way um and there's many things that are getting worse um but for most um for most indicators of human well-being uh the world is in a 00:02:18 great trajectory and the last few centuries have been um a great direction uh however we're now confronted with a series of x-risks um or how uh david one of the 00:02:30 researchers in the um in our team likes to put public bads in extreme public baths that we have to have to really avoid and these especially the ones that are human caused um 00:02:44 present extreme challenges for us to get through and we we sort of control the speed at which we'll uh hit these uh but especially things like nuclear war and engineered pandemics and on ai 00:02:57 uh those kinds of risks

      Don't forget climate change!

    1. Chapter 5: Demand, services and social aspects of mitigation

      Public Annotation of IPCC Report AR6 Climate Change 2022 Mitigation of Climate Change WGIII Chapter 5: Demand, Services and Social Aspects of Mitigation

      NOTE: Permission given by one of the lead authors, Felix Creutzig to annotate with caveat that there may be minor changes in the final version.

      This annotation explores the potential of mass mobilization of citizens and the commons to effect dramatic demand side reductions. It leverages the potential agency of the public to play a critical role in rapid decarbonization.

  13. Jun 2022
    1. This isn't fantasy, anymore; it really happening. The floating city has six integrated systems: #zerowaste and #circularsystems, closed-loop water systems, food, net-zero energy, innovative #mobility, and coastal habitat regeneration. These interconnected systems will generate 100 percent of the required operational energy on-site through floating and rooftop #photovoltaicpanels.

    1. NY and NJ share the same bay, NJ will not join the Oyster program in fear people will eat them and get sick or die. Great post it actually cleaned up our waters where we now have all year visitors including whales, dolphins,tuna, seals all within sight of NYC.

      Despite those findings, Morris is optimistic about nature-based living reefs, which, she says, offer a much better economic and environmental investment than artificial counterparts. “You build these hard seawalls to withstand certain storms, certain events, certain future conditions,” she says, “But once these conditions are reached, they are not adaptive. You have to either build another seawall, or build the seawall higher, or repair them if they’re damaged in a storm.”

    1. Most of us are familiar with data visualization: charts, graphs, maps and animations that represent complex series of numbers. But visualization is not the only way to explain and present data. Some scientists are trying to sonify storms with global weather data. That could be easier to get a sense of interrelated storm dynamics by hearing them.

    1. dire warning

      Really? What's the dire warning? Whatever creatures dominated at the time of the warm period flourished and expanded their ranges. Even now, humanity flourishes most in warmer places (http://www.luminocity3d.org/WorldPopDen/#3/12.00/10.00).

      Contrary to the climate alarmist suggestion that warming should be stopped, the study shows that a warmer Earth has been the norm - and when it was, life of all kinds flourished.

      That's the opposite of a "dire warning" to any sensible person.

      But if people wake up to the scientific reality, why would anyone want to pay scientists to come up with ways to keep us trapped in the ice age we've been in for most of human history?

    1. (a) What are the key levers and leverage points in social systems that might drive transformative change towards sustainability? (b) How are these derived from and perceived within and across academic literatures and in practice? (c) How might the levers and leverage points work together?

      Key questions are asked and the nexus approach of looking at the entire gestalt, consisting of many moving parts and their feedbacks is critical for avoiding and mitigating unintended consequences, also known as progress traps.

      Bringing this to a global public space to create engagement is critical to create a groundswell. The public must understand that leverage points offer us our greatest hope. Once they understand them, everyone can help to identify and participate in leverage points.

      Collectively mapping them and their many feedbacks in a global, open source map - an open knowledge commons (OKC) or open wisdom commons (OWC) for system change will drive global participation.

  14. bafybeiccxkde65wq2iwuydltwmfwv733h5btvyrzqujyrt5wcfjpg4ihf4.ipfs.dweb.link bafybeiccxkde65wq2iwuydltwmfwv733h5btvyrzqujyrt5wcfjpg4ihf4.ipfs.dweb.link
    1. The projected timing of climate departurefrom recent variability

      gloss - Climate Departure

      Climate Departure is the year that the local climate changes so radically that local species no longer recognize it as their environment.

  15. May 2022
    1. Crop harvests for direct food use insufficient to meet the UN’s food security goal

      Planetary Boundary / Doughnut Economic Main Main Category: SOCIO-ECONOMIC: Food

      Visit Stop Reset Go on Indyweb for detailed context graph and to begin or engage in discussion on this topic. (Coming soon)

    1. the current global military buildup could represent a situation whereby many nations are entering, unconsciously or perhaps because there seems to be no other option, into a new type of mutually assured destruction (MAD) scenario, or even the Homo sapiens death spiral.

      It sucks enormous material and energy resources whose purpose is to destroy built environments, human lives, nonhuman lives and the built environment .... not very climate friendly! Military spending only sucks up valuable resources required to fight the climate change hyperthreat.

    2. climate and environment change (CEC) hyperthreat

      climate and environment change (CEC)

  16. Apr 2022
    1. Schools and other public buildings in Italy will be forbidden from setting their air conditioning to any setting lower than 25C from next month, under a scheme intended to help the country dodge an energy crisis exacerbated by the war in Ukraine.

      Air conditioning limits.

  17. Mar 2022
    1. The flotsam and jetsam of our digital queries and transactions, the flurry of electrons flitting about, warm the medium of air. Heat is the waste product of computation, and if left unchecked, it becomes a foil to the workings of digital civilization. Heat must therefore be relentlessly abated to keep the engine of the digital thrumming in a constant state, 24 hours a day, every day.

      "Cloud Computing" has a waste stream, and one of the waste streams is heat exhaust from servers. This is a poetic description of that waste stream.

    1. Because of the invasion in Ukraine, “people are reminded of the problem, but then they resort to sort of quick fixes, which are not really for the long term,” says Rolf Wüestenhagen, director of the Institute for Economy and the Environment at the University of St. Gallen in Switzerland.

      Tradeoff higher gas prices with accelerated climate change and sanctioning Putin.

    2. At a global climate meeting Monday, Ukraine’s representative, Svitlana Krakovska, pointed out the connection: “Human-induced climate change and the war on Ukraine have the same roots—fossil fuels—and our dependence on them,”

      Kill two birds with one stone.

    1. If humans, some humans, start making bad decisions and start destroying the institutions that kept the peace, then we will be back in the era of war with budgets, military budgets going to 20, 30, 40 percent. It can happen. It's in our hands.

      An economic diversion of this scale would make it far more likely that humanity will not be able to prevent, but indeed accelerate planetary tipping points! Hence the urgency of this crisis for the climate movement. This implies that the climate movement and the antiwar movement must now synchronize resources and form a coherent, unified strategy

    2. I hope, for the sake of everybody -- Ukrainians, Russians and the whole of humanity -- that this war stops immediately. Because if it doesn't, it's not only the Ukrainians and the Russians 00:11:39 that will suffer terribly. Everybody will suffer terribly if this war continues. BG: Explain why. YNH: Because of the shock waves destabilizing the whole world. Let’s start with the bottom line: budgets. We have been living in an amazing era of peace in the last few decades. And it wasn't some kind of hippie fantasy. You saw it in the bottom line. 00:12:06 You saw it in the budgets. In Europe, in the European Union, the average defense budget of EU members was around three percent of government budget. And that's a historical miracle, almost. For most of history, the budget of kings and emperors and sultans, like 50 percent, 80 percent goes to war, goes to the army. 00:12:31 In Europe, it’s just three percent. In the whole world, the average is about six percent, I think, fact-check me on this, but this is the figure that I know, six percent. What we saw already within a few days, Germany doubles its military budget in a day. And I'm not against it. Given what they are facing, it's reasonable. For the Germans, for the Poles, for all of Europe to double their budgets. And you see other countries around the world doing the same thing. 00:12:58 But this is, you know, a race to the bottom. When they double their budgets, other countries look and feel insecure and double their budgets, so they have to double them again and triple them. And the money that should go to health care, that should go to education, that should go to fight climate change, this money will now go to tanks, to missiles, to fighting wars. 00:13:25 So there is less health care for everybody, and there is maybe no solution to climate change because the money goes to tanks. And in this way, even if you live in Australia, even if you live in Brazil, you will feel the repercussions of this war in less health care, in a deteriorating ecological crisis, 00:13:48 in many other things. Again, another very central question is technology. We are on the verge, we are already in the middle, actually, of new technological arms races in fields like artificial intelligence. And we need global agreement about how to regulate AI and to prevent the worst scenarios. How can we get a global agreement on AI 00:14:15 when you have a new cold war, a new hot war? So in this field, to all hopes of stopping the AI arms race will go up in smoke if this war continues. So again, everybody around the world will feel the consequences in many ways. This is much, much bigger than just another regional conflict.

      Harari makes some excellent points here. Huge funds originally allocated to fighting climate change and the other anthropocene crisis will be diverted to military spending. Climate change, biodiversity, etc will lose. Only the military industrial complex will win.

      Remember that the military industry is unique. It's only purpose is to consume raw materials and capacity in order to destroy. What is the carbon footprint of a bomb or a bullet?

    1. This is a moment that we should seize, in all seriousness, in order to take on the two huge existential plagues that face us this morning: the climate crisis, outlined in this new IPCC report, and the fact that we have a madman with nuclear weapons who’s used the revenues from oil and gas to intimidate and terrify the entire world.

      This is the critical observation - everything is interconnected. It is a nexus of problems that requires that we deal with all dimensions of the problem simultaneously.

      Putin is the nexus of so much that is wrong with the world. He is like an octopus that has its arms in multiple crisis of the planet.

      The political polarization of the US, the ascendancy of the puppet government of Trump and the blatant cognitive dissonance of the extreme right who are impervious to facts is reminiscent of the propaganda imposed upon the Russian people themselves for one reason - it was part of Putin's master plan: https://youtu.be/FxgBuhMBXSA The US population has been split by Putin's information warfare system, the same one he uses on the Russian population.

      The fake news programmed by Russian propaganda about the Ukraine war has worked effectively to mislead the Russian populus: https://youtu.be/kELta9MLOzg The same pattern of psychological manipulation has also had the same impact in the belief system of the typical hardcore Trumpist.

  18. Feb 2022
    1. (For comparison, most organizations can’t avert a metric ton for less than $2. The average American causes around 16 metric tons of emissions per year.)

      So, taxing people, say, $50 per year would allow the government to fund those charities, right? Sounds like an excellent way to facilitate climate change mitigation.

    2. The Founders Pledge report used countries’ climate targets and projected policies to estimate how many metric tons of carbon can be saved by avoiding various lifestyle choices.

      Are there countries that haven't already blown past their own targets and had to reset them? It seems quite naive of them to suggest that any country will be able to meet their targets. Indeed, considering how many countries that produce lots of GHGs have had to step back from their climate change targets, I would expect that accounting for policy changes would actually make population reduction even better.

    1. அண்மையில், The Tallest Story, Can the novel handle a subject as cataclysmic as climate change?  என்ற கட்டுரை படித்தேன். நான் உங்கள் தளத்தை தொடர்ந்து படித்து வருவதால் உங்கள் வாசகர்கள் விரும்பிப் படிப்பார்கள் என்று தோன்றியது. என்னுடைய மூலத்தை சற்று மாற்றிய சுமாரான தமிழ் வடிவம்:  வைகுண்டம் https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_fiction வானிலைப்புனைவு – [cli-fi The Tallest Story] 

      Climate Fiction - Tallest story - JMo web article

    1. Markets are politically regulated institutional processes far removed from idealized, perfect competition, and prices are negotiated between small numbers of powerful brokers (84) involving hidden subsidies, e.g., for infrastructure

      Das Konzept des Marktversagens geht davon aus, dass Märkte ohne politisch/institutionelle Regulierunge funktionieren könnten.

  19. Jan 2022
  20. notesfromasmallpress.substack.com notesfromasmallpress.substack.com
    1. If booksellers like to blame publishers for books not being available, publishers like to blame printers for being backed up. Who do printers blame? The paper mill, of course.

      The problem with capitalism is that in times of fecundity things can seem to magically work so incredibly well because so much of the system is hidden, yet when problems arise so much becomes much more obvious.

      Unseen during fecundity is the amount of waste and damage done to our environments and places we live. Unseen are the interconnections and the reliances we make on our environment and each other.

      There is certainly a longer essay hiding in this idea.

    1. In comparison, the average household energy use for gas heating in Belgium – which has a moderate climate – is 20,000 kWh per year. Assuming that the average Belgian heating system is used for six months per year, daily energy use corresponds to 109.6 kWh per day. This energy could heat roughly 900 water bottles per day – enough to keep the whole neighbourhood comfortable.

      Nice calculations about energy consumption at a personal level (110kWh/day).

  21. Dec 2021
    1. Extinction Rebellion has been at the forefront of a fundamentally new message which is if a government doesn't change, it's your right and as we've identified, your duty, if you're not going to be complicit, 00:34:43 to go into a rebellion a nonviolent civil disobedience against the government in order to fundamentally reduce carbon emissions. It's not actually that complicated, Is it? If you ask the average person who controls the economy, right? They know it's the banks, the big banks, right? And we had the banks, I think they did it pretty deliberately ten years ago. 00:35:12 They pulled our chain and we had the most massive transfer of wealth that the world has ever seen the bank bailout, right? Trillions and trillions of dollars. We're seeing the same thing now with covid and the banks have got to be behind it, right? If the banks wanted and decided that emissions have to decline from today 00:35:36 fast in a matter of years, the banks can do it, right? Because the banks hold the strings. All governments now are in a massive amount of national debt . we have an axis of evil if you want, we have the big banking corporations. We have the big fossil fuel corporations and we have the compliant government.

      The big three institutions making up the climate axis of evil: banks, governments and dirty energy.

      While XR does this, it is also possible to apply pressure on another front, a bottom-up, rapid, citizen-led transformation effort.

  22. Nov 2021
    1. for example arctic char the fish species that's already 00:09:00 all across the arctic region living at its temperature level about 24 degrees celsius in freshwater ecosystems one fraction of a decree further and we 00:09:13 will enter into a cycle of fish death events that will cascade in food security loss of culture and many other things of this keystone species on the aquatic ecosystems for 00:09:25 communities and nature alike

      See Camilo Mora's nature 2013 paper on climate departure:.https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12540

    2. she pointed out that climate finance to small island states declined by 25 percent in 2019 but she also offered 00:22:36 what she called a sword that can cut down this gordian knot of finance and she reminded us that 25 trillion dollars of quantitative easing has been produced in the last 13 years and that 9 trillion 00:22:49 of that was just in the last 18 months alone in order to deal with the covet crisis an annual increase in special drawing rights of 500 billion dollars a year for 20 years putting trust to finance the 00:23:01 transition is what she suggested is the real gap that we need to close not the 50 billion being proposed for adaptation and she concluded by saying if 500 billion sounds big it's just two percent 00:23:14 of that 25 trillion dollars that has already been created through quantitative easing so my question is is actually not an economic question it's more of a political question really what are the barriers to using that mechanism for the 00:23:28 enormous threat of climate change in the way it's been used for the frankly lesser threat of of covid and what can be done to build support for it

      Excellent comparison give here. Unless we have salient comparison of figures, we can think a number sounds big.

    3. i 00:35:57 think that's really important but i want to come back to a bigger issue which is the lack of the hundred billion dollars and also loss and damage and i think that actually goes back to a lack 00:36:09 of knowledge and education in the developed world about our history and i think this is incredibly important that we need to think not just about the science but actually educating people 00:36:20 about colonization about how much we've actually admitted i think that if we can get the developed world to actually understand uh the crimes of our past to 00:36:32 be able to understand why there is this trust issue i think that's actually critical and it sounds really strange to deal with history to actually save the planet to deal with climate change but 00:36:44 i've become more convinced having heard politicians who supposedly studied history and politics at university must admit it was a very strange small oxford university you know they're not very 00:36:56 good but again i think we really have that whole education piece to do before we can acknowledge those crimes and move forward

      Education about the history of colonization is critical to helping developed country leaders understand and prioritize the transfer of funds.

    4. if the trust equation is undermined then there is little hope that the 00:15:22 integrity of the carbon equation will be maintained

      This is a critical link between successful decarbonization and climate justice - no climate justice means no successful decarbonization/

    5. arctic fox is now gone it's no longer nesting in in 00:09:38 finnish army and arctic areas and uh its habitats are overtaken by red fox more southern and boreal species so the species on the move is one of the factors that's really altering the kind 00:09:51 of life that we know here

      Arctic Fox is being replaced by Red Fox

    1. Trans Mountain said there have not been any oil leaks due to the flooding, which has triggered an emergency shutdown of the pipeline lasting longer than any previous stoppage in its nearly 70-year-history.