In this commentary, we provide our ground-level observations of how the novel COVID-19 pandemic has exposed weaknesses in our federal system to respond to local communities, particularly African Americans and Latina/os who live and work in the St. Louis region. It is based on a virtual town hall hosted by the Community Innovation and Action Center (CIAC) at the University of Missouri, St. Louis on April 18, 2020. Based on these initial public discussions, we use St. Louis as a lens for arguing that that government’s attenuated impact is not due to a natural disaster itself, but the inevitable result of race-based policies that had worked against African Americans over generations. The real failure involves our federalist system’s lack of a commitment to racial equity - when race no longer is used to predict life outcomes, and outcomes for all groups are improved - when designing the federal plan to respond to COVID-19 in local communities.

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Resistance to Racial Equity in U.S. Federalism and its Impact on Fragmented Regions

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The Covid-19 pandemic and ensuing economic crisis have introduced manifold dislocations in Americans’ lives. Using novel survey data samples of SNAP recipients, we examine the socio-economic insecurities faced by low-income/benefits-eligible households during the early months of the crisis. Three repeated online surveys included measures of perceived and realized housing insecurity, food scarcity, new debt accrual, and recent job loss as indicators of Covid-induced shocks. Food insecurity and debt accrual worsened significantly over the course of April 2020. Job losses also compounded, albeit at a slower rate. The proportion of respondents reporting multiple types of precarity increased over the month. Compared to Latinx and White respondents, Black respondents were more likely to experience Covid-induced precarity across three out of four indicators, and they experienced more types simultaneously on average. The results provide early systematic evidence on the economic impact of the Covid-19 crisis on poor Americans, and racial disparities therein.

Covid-19’s Socio-Economic Impact on Low-Income Benefit Recipients: Early Evidence from Tracking Surveys

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This study analyses COVID-19 mortality at the local authority level in England. The dependent variable is the age-standardised COVID-19 mortality rate. Two separate analyses are reported: one using untransformed variables, and one using logged variables (where appropriate). In the former, five variables explain 73% of the variance in COVID-19 mortality rate: cumulative confirmed cases rate, population density, % black or Asian, average household size, and a deprivation index. In the latter, four variables explain 72% of the variance in log COVID-19 mortality rate: log cumulative confirmed cases rate, log % black or Asian, average household size, and the deprivation index. (A health index does not reach statistical significance in either analysis, most likely because it is somewhat crude and the dependent variable is age-standardised.) Cumulative confirmed cases rate, average household size and % black or Asian are the strongest and most consistent predictors of COVID-19 mortality.

An Analysis of COVID-19 Mortality at the Local Authority Level in England

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In the context of the current COVID-19 pandemic, households throughout the world have to cope with negative shocks, either because of the disease or the various mitigation strategies that have caused massive unemployment and financial insecurity. Previous research has shown that negative shocks impair cognitive function and change risk, time and social preferences. In this study, we analyze the results of a longitudinal multi-country survey conducted in Italy (N=1,652), Spain (N=1,660) and the United Kingdom (N=1,578). We measure cognitive function using the Cognitive Reflection Test and preferences traits using an experimentally validated set of questions to assess the differences between people exposed to a shock compared to the rest of the sample. We measure four possible types of shocks: labor market shock, health shock, occurrence of stressful events, and mental health shock. Additionally, we randomly assign participants to groups with either a recall of negative events (more specifically, a mild reinforcement of stress or of fear/anxiety), or to a control group (to recall neutral or joyful memories), in order to assess whether or not stress and negative emotions drive a change in preferences. Results show that people affected by shocks performed worse in terms of cognitive functioning, are more risk loving, and are more prone to punish others (negative reciprocity). Data do not support the hypotheses that the result is driven by stress or by negative emotions.

Negative shocks predict change in cognitive function and preferences: Assessing the negative affect and stress hypothesis in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and the lockdown mitigation strategy

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The global pandemic has an inherently urban character. The UN-Habitat’s awareness of it has led to the publication of a Response Plan for mollification of the disease-induced externalities in the cities of the world. This article takes the UN-Habitat report as the premise to carry out an empirical investigation in the four metro cities of India. The report’s concern with the urban character of the pandemic has underlined the role of cities in disease transmission. In that wake, the study demarcates factors at the sub-city level that tend to jeopardize the two mandatory precautionary measures during COVID-19 – Social Distancing and Lockdown. It investigates those factors that bring deprived locales parallel to COVID-19 induced vulnerability. Secondly, UN-Habitat’s one of the major action areas is evidence-based knowledge creation through mapping and its analysis. In our study, we do it at a more granular scale than the city so a more nuanced understanding can be arrived at. Thus, in tune with the UN-habitat’s we have embarked on a detailed study of the four metro cities in India that are simultaneously the densest in the global south.

COVID-19 and urban vulnerability in the megacities of the global south

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Eyewitness media was boosted by ubiquitous smartphones and social media use. User-generated content by non-professionals, or netizens, has shed light on issues they deem important by capturing and sharing footage appealing to their inner digital network and mainstream media. However, the influence that digital testimonials exerts on activism and indexing has been restricted to those possessing some media training. This paper aims to fill this gap by providing a framework to guide vulnerable people experiencing harsh conditions to leverage the power of social media. The expectation is that such a guideline would help the most vulnerable draw the attention of other members of the community, authorities and mainstream media to the conditions they are in. The proposal of this framework is based on the theory of mediatized conflict and analysis of the hashtag #FallecidosCovid19Ec on Twitter. This hashtag helped organize scattered experiences, raise media attention and pressure officials to respond to urgent demands.

Powering Social Media Footage: Simple Guide for the Most Vulnerable to Make Emergency Visible

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The COVID-19 pandemic continues to alter daily life and lead to changes in the way we spend time outside. In an effort to gather timely and relevant data on national recreation patterns, the Leave No Trace Center for Outdoor Ethics and its academic partner, Pennsylvania State University, have been working to conduct a study that can offer guidance to land managers, recreation providers, and outdoor enthusiasts across the United States. Through three phases of survey-based data collection, ranging from April 9th to May 21st, 2020, a longitudinal perspective of how outdoor recreationists are reacting to the COVID-19 pandemic was developed from this research. The timing of this research was purposeful, as it intended to capture self-reported information related to outdoor recreation and COVID-19 during periods of time when the virus had been officially documented as a pandemic, resulting federal and state stay-at-home orders were implemented across the U.S., and many parks and protected closed or discontinued regular operations. Phases 1 and 2 of this assessment were detailed by previous reports. This report details the findings across all three phases of research. These findings track behaviors, psychosocial determinants of outdoor recreation decision-making, and future intentions across the study period. This report is intended to provide valuable information for managing the changing recreation use of public lands, predicting spikes in recreation, and offering insight for land managers as they work to protect the natural world. The following tables, figures, and corresponding brief descriptions are intended to compare results across the three phases of this research effort.

Longitudinal changes in the outdoor recreation community’s reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic: Final report on a three-phase national survey of outdoor enthusiasts

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This study will seek answers to three research questions, directed to evaluate the patterns and the structure of pandemics and contagious in different ages and territories, always taking into account the COVID-19 pandemic: What kind of patterns and emotional contagion are shared in different pandemic moments across ages and countries? How a pandemic affect our daily lives? Which type of emotion will dominate and why in the emotional contagion caused by a pandemic situation? To answer these research questions, our methodology is based on a mapping of epistemological knowledge from social science and history about how societies faced collapse due to epidemic outbreaks. Also, we present an autoethnography to revise moment by moment how professional and private lives are being affected by this pandemic right now.

COVID-19 Pandemic and Emotional Contagion: Societies facing Collapse

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The World Health Organization temporarily suspended all mass vaccination campaigns to control the pandemic spread of COVID-19 and the national lockdown across the countries has resulted in the postponement of routine immunization programs following the recommendations of maintaining physical distance. Any disruption of immunization services, even for short duration will result in an increased likelihood of vaccine preventable disease such as measles outbreaks. Amidst ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, it is therefore, essential to prevent these challenges through effective policymaking and strategic planning. Such measures should not only aim to recover the gaps in national and regional immunization goals but also emphasize on building health systems resiliency to external shocks that may affect vaccination programs across context.

Secondary impacts of COVID-19: Risk of vaccination reduction and global resurgence of measles

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The current pandemic does not affect all ethnic groups equally. Explanations offered for these inequalities have relied on assumptions about genetic predispositions and peculiar ‘cultural’ behaviours. But, beyond a very small number of health conditions, there is no evidence that such genetic or cultural differences explain ethnic inequalities in Covid-19 or any other health conditions. Organisations focused on supporting the BAME population are not focused on genetic/cultural explanations, but the racism which leads to the socioeconomic differences which are so important for explaining differences in Covid-19 deaths. And how it also leads to long-term stress which causes cardiovascular disease, and other health problems like obesity. Emerging evidence shows that these influences reach into all aspects of health-related outcomes. But these ethnic disparities in experiences of the pandemic are not being given sufficient attention. This is partly due to this focus on a search for genetic explanations for societal problems.

Ethnicity and Covid-19: Standing on the shoulders of eugenics?

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To slow the spread of the novel coronavirus, many universities shifted to online instruction and now face the question of whether and how to resume in-person instruction. This article uses transcript data from a medium-sized American university to describe three enrollment networks that connect students through classes, and in the process create social conditions for the spread of infectious disease: an university-wide network, an undergraduate-only network, and a liberal arts college network. All three networks are “small worlds” characterized by high clustering, short average path lengths, and multiple independent paths connecting students. Students from different majors cluster together, but gateway courses and distributional requirements create cross-major integration. Connectivity declines when large courses of 100 students or more are removed from the network, as might be the case if some courses are taught online, but moderately sized courses must also be removed before less than half of student-pairs are connected in three steps and less than two-thirds in four steps. In all simulations, most students are connected through multiple independent paths. Hybrid models of instruction can reduce but not eliminate the potential for epidemic spread through the small worlds of course enrollments.

The Small World Network of College Classes: Implications for Epidemic Spread on a University Campus

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After decades of navigating HIV and other sexually transmitted infections, gay and bisexual men are again responding to new and uncertain risks presented by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic by adapting aspects of their sexual behavior. We fielded a survey of LGBTQ Americans’ responses to the COVID-19 pandemic collected from April 10 to May 10, 2020, an important time period during which most states issued stay-at-home orders (April 10 to April 30) and also began implementing phased reopening (May 1 to May 10). In this paper, we limit analyses to a subsample of 728 gay and bisexual men and focus on changes to sexual behavior in response to the pandemic. We find that many gay and bisexual men made significant changes to their sexual behavior and partner selection. Nine out of 10 men in our sample reported having either one sexual partner or no sexual partner in the last 30 days, which, for many, was a substantial decrease compared to just before the pandemic. Men also made changes to the kinds of partners they had and their sexual activities with partners (e.g., more virtual sex), engaged in new strategies to reduce their risks of infection from partners, and expressed high levels of concern about how HIV may affect COVID-19 risk, treatment, and recovery. We expect these changes to be important not only for reducing the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, but also for reducing new sexually transmitted infections. Despite substantial changes in sexual behavior for most men in our sample, we note concerns around the sustainability of sexual behavior change over time and nondisclosure of COVID-19 symptoms to partners.

The COVID-19 Pandemic and Sexual Behavior among Gay and Bisexual Men in the United States

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An effect of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is sometimes suggested, will be to reverse the secular trend toward questioning the value of scientific research and expertise. We analyze this hypothesis by examining how exposure to previous epidemics affected the confidence of individuals in science and scientists. Consistent with theory and evidence that attitudes are durably formed when individuals are in their impressionable years between the ages of 18 and 25, we focus on people who were exposed to epidemics in their country of residence at this stage of the life course. Combining data from a 2018 Wellcome Trust survey of more than 70,000 individuals in 160 countries with data on global epidemics since 1970, we show that such exposure has no impact on views of science as an endeavor or on opinions of whether the study of disease is properly an aspect of science, but that it significantly reduces confidence in scientists and the benefits of their work. These findings are robust to a variety of controls, empirical methods and sensitivity checks. We suggest some implications for how scientific findings are communicated and for how scientists seeking to inform and influence public opinion should position themselves in the public sphere.

Revenge of the Experts: Will COVID-19 Renew or Diminish Public Trust in Science?

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COVID-19 has made evident that we are ill-prepared to respond to an international health emergency, the complex interdependence of social and ecological systems, and that to reduce the risk of future zoonotic pandemics we must safeguard nature. Approaches based on complexity science taking into account that interdependence and its associated systemic risks must be mainstreamed in current policy making, in general. However, at present, that could result in failure for three main reasons: (1) those approaches might be too sophisticated for current policy making pursuing sustainable development; (2) the reductionist views from conventional economics still deeply influence economic and environmental policy making; (3) it is unlikely that far-reaching policies aimed at stimulating post-pandemic economic development can be steered through radically innovative approaches that remain untested. Here, using COVID-19 as an example, I suggest that the use of innovative complexity-based approaches could be enabled through intermediary approaches equipped to resonate with the mindset pervading current policy making. In particular, I propose to understand the response to unexpected systemic threats as instances of reactive policy making driven by radical uncertainty, and advance three notions that could enhance that understanding: modulating contingency, adaptive inference and blue uncertainty.

Blue uncertainty: Warding off systemic risks in the Anthropocene – Lessons from COVID-19

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BACKGROUND The COVID-19 pandemic is both a global health crisis, and a civic emergency for national governments, including the UK. With currently no vaccine and no treatment, there is no medical solution. Consequently, the questions for evidence and policy are complex, draw on multiple streams, and are about management rather than medicine. This working paper sets out models and methods for a forthcoming study to analyse the interaction of evidence and policy in the first 100 days of the UK government’s response to COVID-19. MODELS Drawing on chaos theory and insights from the policy sciences, three models of evidence-based policy are discussed: a linear cipher model, a multiple streams model, and a melee model. The nonlinear melee model is adopted for the forthcoming study, in which multiple forms of evidence (science, economic, political, social) and actors interact in real time, and supposedly independent evidence streams concomitantly consider evidence from other streams, creating an apparently chaotic melee in which it is unclear where, how and by whom decisions originate or are made. This is normal, and much closer to how policy decisions emerge than the process represented by rational, ideal-type, linear models. METHODS DESIGN: An analysis of evidence in and of the policy response to COVID-19 by the UK government for the 100 days from 1st February 2020 to 11th May 2020 will be undertaken. DATA: Three data sources will be accessed: papers from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) and its feeder groups and committees; formal government statements, information and guidance; BBC News coverage of government press briefings and further documents and/or coverage snowballing from them. ANALYSIS: A thematic content analysis, pre-structured by the four evidence streams in the melee model, will be undertaken to identify critical incidents for a strict contemporaneous analysis using only information available at the time of the incident, and referring only to the contemporaneous context for the incident. ASSUMPTIONS: Illustrative critical incidents will be sufficient to provide evidence for the explanatory utility of the melee model. Comprehensive coverage of all incidents would unnecessarily super-saturate the analysis.

Models and methods to analyse the interaction of evidence and policy in the first 100 days of the UK government's response to COVID-19 (v1.1)

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The paper analyses the travel intentions of tourists in the post-pandemic world. The sample includes 974 respondents from Bulgaria. The findings show that most of the respondents are ready to travel within two months after travel is allowed in the country. For their first trip, they will travel in the country, by their car and with their family. Hygiene, disinfection and reliable health system in a destination will be important factors in travellers’ decisions. Women and older respondents have higher health safety preferences than men and younger respondents.

Travel behaviour after the pandemic: the case of Bulgaria

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The coronavirus crisis has created different initiatives that promote access to open publications and open data, solve collaboratively and from different places, being an example of the benefits of open science. From the initial version of the Compilation on Open Science from COVID-19: Open Access + Open Data (Version I: April 3, 2020) published by Alejandro Uribe-Tirado (http://eprints.rclis.org/39864/), it seemed to us, a good practice to update this first input openly and collaboratively, using the platform: https://etherpad.wikimedia.org/p/covid19. This new version (Version II: June 3, 2020), is the result of this joint work.

Open Science since Covid-19: Open Access + Open Data

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Many scientists are currently contributing research on SARS-CoV2, with social scientists focusing on demographic and behavioral aspects when it comes to the diffusion of the virus. Recent publications include valid contributions about the importance of population’s demographic composition to understand country-differences in fatalities, and some speculations about the origins of different pace and patterns of diffusion. Among them the idea that intergenerational contacts would contribute to explain the fast spread and high fatality among the elderly population in some countries. We argument that in order to contribute to the scientific knowledge speculation is not enough and acknowledge that in the absence of solid, comparable data it is difficult to bring these ideas to an empirical test. Further, we present a simulation experiment shedding serious doubts on the importance of intergenerational contacts to spread the virus on the elderly population but underlining, instead, the importance of the high connectedness within the elderly population. That southern Europeans are not bowling alone seems to be more relevant to explain high diffusion among elderly than their contact to their (grand-)children.

Intergenerational contacts and Covid-19 spread: Omnipresent grannies or bowling together?

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Currently, many different countries are under lockdown or extreme social distancing measures to control the spread of COVID-19. The potentially far-reaching side effects of these measures have not yet been fully understood. In this study we analyse the results of a multi-country survey conducted in Italy (N=3,504), Spain (N=3,524) and the United Kingdom (N=3,523), with two separate analyses. In the first analysis, we examine the elicitation of citizens’ concerns over the downplaying of the economic consequences of the lockdown during the COVID-19 pandemic. We control for Social Desirability Bias through a list experiment included in the survey. In the second analysis, we examine the data from the same survey to estimate the consequences of the economic lockdown in terms of mental health, by predicting the level of stress, anxiety and depression associated with being economically vulnerable and having been affected by a negative economic shock. To accomplish this, we have used a prediction algorithm based on machine learning techniques. To quantify the size of this affected population, we compare its magnitude with the number of people affected by COVID-19 using measures of susceptibility, vulnerability and behavioural change collected in the same questionnaire. We find that the concern for the economy and for “the way out” of the lockdown is diffuse and there is evidence of minor underreporting. Additionally, we estimate that around 42.8% of the populations in the three countries are at high risk of stress, anxiety and depression, based on their level of economic vulnerability and their exposure to a negative economic shock. Therefore, it can be concluded that the lockdown and extreme social distancing in the three countries has had an enormous impact on individuals’ mental health and this should be taken into account for future decisions made on regulations concerning the pandemic.

Assessing concerns for the economic consequence of the COVID-19 response and mental health problems associated with economic vulnerability and negative economic shock in Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom

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Contact tracing is a key approach for controlling the COVID–19 pandemic. Traditional tracing methods might however miss a number of contacts between infected and susceptible persons. Digital contact tracing apps have been developed to assist health departments in notifying individuals of recent exposures to SARS-CoV-2. These apps are used in several countries throughout the world, and some US states have either launched or are planning to launch such apps. The potential effects of digital contact tracing apps depend however on their widespread adoption. Most investigations of the determinants of adoption among potential users have focused on issues related to privacy features (e.g., who can access data, whether location is recorded) and the accuracy of the app in notifying users of exposures to SARS-CoV-2 (e.g., false notifications). In this paper, we investigate whether financial incentives might help further accelerate the adoption of digital contact tracing apps. We conducted a discrete choice experiment with an online sample of 394 US residents aged 18–69 years old. We asked participants to make a series of choices between two hypothetical versions of a digital contact tracing app characterized by several randomly selected attributes, including varying levels of financial cost or incentives to download. In this experiment, financial incentives were more than twice as important in the decision-making process about DCT app downloads than privacy and accuracy. In order to accelerate adoption, US States planning to launch digital contact tracing apps should consider offering financial incentives for download to potential users.

Financial Incentives for Downloading COVID–19 Digital Contact Tracing Apps

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Surveys of the general population can provide crucial information for designing effective non-pharmaceutical interventions to tackle public health emergencies, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, conducting such surveys can be difficult, especially when timely data collection is required. In this paper, we discuss our experiences with using targeted Facebook advertising campaigns to address these difficulties in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic. We describe central advantages, challenges, and practical considerations. This includes a discussion of potential sources of bias and how they can be addressed.

Addressing Public Health Emergencies via Facebook Surveys: Advantages, Challenges, and Practical Considerations

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Major crises can act as critical junctures or reinforce the political status quo, depending on how citizens view the performance of central institutions. We use an interrupted time series to study the political effect of the enforcement of a strict confinement policy in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, we take advantage of a unique representative web-based survey that was fielded in March and April 2020 in Western Europe to compare the political support of those who took the survey right before and right after the start of the lockdown in their country. We find that lockdowns have increased vote intentions for the party of the Prime Minister/President, trust in government, and satisfaction with democracy. Furthermore, we find that, while rallying individuals around current leaders and institutions, they have had no effect on traditional left-right attitudes.

The effect of COVID-19 lockdowns on political support: Some good news for democracy? (Published in European Journal of Political Research)

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Work and Families in Times of Crisis: The Case of Israel in the Coronavirus Outbreak

This research deals with the effect of the coronavirus outbreaks on families in Israel. We use the first wave of a longitudinal survey of 2,040 adult Israeli men and women (age 18+), Jews and Arabs, who were employed or self-employed in the first week of March, prior to the lockdown of the economy. In this preprint we ask two main questions: (1) To what extent does the coronavirus pandemic and the economic crisis following it affect inequality between families? and (2) To what extent did the coronavirus pandemic and the economic crisis following it affect inequality within the family?

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This study combines market-level data about changes in jobs offered via online labor platforms and interviews with online freelance workers to highlight how freelancers are responding to the novel coronavirus’s presence. We pursue this work recognizing that as the scope and breadth of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, the implications to workers and labor markets are profound. Our focus on online labor markets and workers reflects our enduring interest in knowledge work, with a particular attention to precarious work. Market data show the dramatic shifts in work availability (supply) and the changes in worker availability (demand) as the United States’ economy struggles with the initial burst of effects of a pandemic. Interview data reveal that freelance workers are aware of these shifts. These changes to already- precarious and market-driven work arrangements are magnified by the realities of balancing family members’ changes in job status, working around children who are home from school, and re-organizing work and lives to account for the rapid onset and confusion of stay-at-home requirements and the uncertainty that is the core of the pandemic. Findings suggest work flexibility, which seems central to freelancer’s motivation to pursue such work, is diminishing and instead freelancers are being driven by desperation rooted in the acknowledged precarity of their situation, magnified by the constellation of events reshaping their working arrangements. We further observe that these effects vary by occupation and are more keenly experienced by women freelancers, both of which warrant additional attention.

When Motivation Becomes Desperation: Online Freelancing During the COVID-19 Pandemic

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The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has impacted mental health globally. It is essential to deploy advanced research methodologies that may use complex data to draw meaningful inferences facilitating mental health research and policymaking during this pandemic. Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies offer a wide range of opportunities to leverage advancements in data sciences in analyzing health records, behavioral data, social media contents, and outcomes data on mental health. Several studies have reported the use of several AI technologies such as vector machines, neural networks, latent Dirichlet allocation, decision trees, and clustering to detect and treat depression, schizophrenia, Alzheimer’s disease, and other mental health problems. The applications of such technologies in the context of COVID-19 is still under development, which calls for further deployment of AI technologies in mental health research in this pandemic using clinical and psychosocial data through technological partnerships and collaborations. Lastly, policy-level commitment and deployment of resources to facilitate the use of robust AI technologies for assessing and addressing mental health problems during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Applications of artificial intelligence technologies on mental health research during COVID-19

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On 23 March 2020 the UK went into lockdown in an unprecedented step to attempt to limit the spread of coronavirus. Government advice at that time was that all older people aged 70 and over should stay at home and avoid any contact with non-household members. This study uses new data from the Understanding Society COVID 19 survey collected in April 2020, linked to Understanding Society Wave 9 data collected in 2018/19, in order to examine the extent of support received by individuals aged 70 and over in the first four weeks of lockdown from family, neighbours or friends not living in the same household, and how that support had changed prior to the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. The research distinguishes between different types of households as, given with guidance not to leave home and not to let others into the household, those older people living alone or living only with a partner also aged 70 and above are more likely to be particularly vulnerable. The results highlight both positive news alongside causes for concern. The receipt of assistance with Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADLs), especially shopping, has increased particularly among those living alone or with an older partner, reflecting the rise of volunteering and community action during this period. However, not all older people reported a rise, and the majority reported ‘no change’, in the support received. Moreover, amongst those older people reporting that they required support with at least one Activity of Daily Living (ADL) task prior to the pandemic, around one-quarter reported receiving no care from outside the household and one-in-ten of those with two or more ADL care needs reported receiving less help than previously. Although formal home care visits have continued during the pandemic to those who have been assessed by the local government to be in need, it is important to acknowledge that some older people risk not having the support they need.

Older and ‘staying at home’ during lockdown: informal care receipt during the COVID-19 pandemic amongst people aged 70 and over in the UK

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Measures to control the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are having unprecedented impacts on people’s lives around the world. In this paper, we argue that those conducting social research in the energy domain should give special consideration to the internal and external validity of their work conducted during this pandemic period. We set out a number of principles that researchers can consider to give themselves and research users greater confidence that findings and recommendations will still be applicable in years to come. Largely grounded in existing good practice guidance, our recommendations include collecting and reporting additional supporting contextual data, reviewing aspects of research design for vulnerability to validity challenges, and building in longitudinal elements where feasible. We suggest that these approaches also bring a number of opportunities to generate new insights. However, we caution that a more systemic challenge to validity of knowledge produced during this period may result from changes in the kinds of social research that it is practicable to pursue.

Validity of energy social research during and after COVID-19: challenges, considerations, and responses

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The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns are creating health and economic crises that threaten food and nutrition security. The seafood sector provides important sources of employment and nutrition, especially in low-income countries, and is highly globalized, allowing shocks to propagate internationally. We use a resilience ‘action cycle’ framework to study the first five months of COVID-19-related disruptions, impacts, and responses to the seafood sector. Looking across high- and low-income countries, we find that some supply chains, market segments, companies, small-scale actors and civil society have shown initial signs of greater resilience than others. For example, frozen Ecuadorian shrimp and Chinese tilapia exports were diverted to alternative markets, while live-fresh supply chains were more impacted. COVID-19 has also highlighted the vulnerability of certain groups working in- or dependent on the seafood sector. We discuss early coping and adaptive responses, combined with lessons from past shocks, that could be considered when building resilience in the sector.

Emerging COVID-19 impacts, responses, and lessons for building resilience in the seafood system

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This database collects COVID-19 deaths by age, sex, date, and region in Japan. As with other causes of deaths, deaths related to COVID-19 are reported by local public health center (Hokenjo), which is located in every prefecture and major metropolitan/large cities. 47 prefectures and some metropolitan cities then collect the information about COVID-19 cases and deaths to report the Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare (MHLW). Although MHLW provides a summary statistics about the COVID-19 cases and deaths on their webpage, the distribution broken down by age and sex is not available, that leads many volunteering organizations to collect COVID-19 information based on prefectural/municipality reports. However, even these databases do not provide COVID-19 deaths by age and sex. This database thus aims to fill in the gap by collecting COVID-19 related deaths reported by various sources as I discuss below, including prefectures’ press releases or media sources. This document explains the collection of data sources and potential uses of the data.

COVerAGE-JP: COVID-19 Deaths by Age and Sex in Japan

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Background Previous research has documented how age structures and co-residence patterns shape the vulnerability of populations to outbreaks of covid-19, with Spain being among the most vulnerable countries. Objective To document the role of age-specific co-residence patterns in shaping the vulnerability of Spanish provinces to mortality arising from within-household transmission of covid-19. Method We use data from the Spanish Population Registry 2018 on 10% of the population residing in private households in Spain. We combine information on the age and number of household members with infection fatality ratios related to covid-19 to estimate the average number of deaths per infection if a person becomes infected and transmits the virus to other household members. Results Children live in the largest households of all age groups on average. However, the age profile of the persons that children live with reduces, but does not eliminate, the risk of mortality arising due to within-household transmission of the virus. Provinces with aged populations face a double challenge. Not only do they have large numbers of vulnerable persons due to their age, older persons are also more likely to share the same households in aged provinces. Contribution We show how the vulnerability of Spanish provinces to covid-19 varies due to age structure and co-residence patterns and document the role of specific age-based co-residence arrangements in this result.

Age Structure and Living Arrangements Shape the Vulnerability of Spanish Provinces to Outbreaks of Covid-19

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The COVID-19 pandemic has led to significant changes in how people are currently living their lives. To determine how to best reduce the effects of the pandemic and start reopening societies, governments have drawn insights from mathematical models of the spread of infectious diseases. We give an introduction to a family of mathematical models (called “compartmental models”) and discuss how the results of analyzing these models influence government policies and human behavior, such as encouraging physical distancing to help slow the spread of the disease.

Disease Detectives: Using Mathematics to Forecast the Spread of Infectious Diseases

10.31235/osf.io/t9n6q

Has coronavirus disrupted the disruptor? We argue that this is indeed the case, and that this disruption will affect the growth of Airbnb on the long term. The first premise of our prediction is that coronavirus is representative of any kind of major shock that has the potential to affect the tourism industry. The second premise is that the consequences of this super-shock are asymmetric. Different types of hosts will face different types of challenges as a consequence of the sudden and unexpected drop in demand. Investors who are in the business of short term rental to make commercial profits will find themselves in a situation where they still have expenses, but no more income. Some of these investors will re-assess the risk of short-term rental and never return to Airbnb. As a consequence, the supply of Airbnb properties will limit Airbnb growth in future.

CORONAVIRUS AND AIRBNB – Disrupting the Disruptor

10.31235/osf.io/jzhe2

It is noteworthy that in the six U.S. states which never imposed stricter isolation measures, as of June 1, 2020 observable increases in new cases and deaths have not occurred, compared to demographically and otherwise similar neighboring states that imposed tight lockdowns. This is consistent with the fact that modeling forecasts of a sharp uptick of deaths across the United States -- as many (also largely rural) states began reopening around early May of 2020 -- turned out to be considerably overdrawn. A key implication of the experience from the six non-lockdown U.S. states, as well as from Sweden, is not that Covid-19 mortality deaths in those places have been lower, but rather that if outcomes have not generally been worse than elsewhere this suggests that similar results may be achieved at substantially lesser economic and societal cost. The urge to apply a one-size-fits-all approach should be reexamined.

The Covid-19 Lockdown “Natural Experiment” That Has Already Been Conducted