- Jul 2024
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egusphere.copernicus.org egusphere.copernicus.org
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for - social tipping point - 2023 paper - paper details
paper details - title: The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to majority - author - Jordan Everall - Jonathan. F Donges - Ilona. M. Otto - Preprint date - 20 Nov 2023 - Publication - EGUsphere Preprint Repository
summary - This is a recent 2023 paper that summarizes social tipping point research for fields of interest to me, such as climate change. - I'm reading, looking for any real world experimental validation of social tipping point in climate change - I didn't find any but still interesting
from - search - google - research on complex contagion refutes the 25% social tipping point threshold - https://www.google.com/search?q=research+on+complex+contagion+refutes+the+25%25+social+tipping+point+threshold&oq=research+on+complex+contagion+refutes+the+25%25+social+tipping+point+threshold&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIGCAEQRRhA0gEJMjAyOTRqMGo3qAIAsAIA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8 - search results returned of interest - The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to ... - https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2241/
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- Jan 2024
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news.rpi.edu news.rpi.edu
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Read Minority Rules: Scientists Discover Tipping Point for the Spread of Ideas by Gabrielle DeMarco
found via: https://hypothes.is/a/kMVt4rC4Ee6E5bdC29_e_g
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dougbelshaw.com dougbelshaw.com
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Venkatesh Rao thinks that the Nazi bar analogy is “an example of a bad metaphor contagion effect” and points to a 2010 post of his about warren vs plaza architectures. He believes that Twitter, for example, is a plaza, whereas Substack is a warren: A warren is a social environment where no participant can see beyond their little corner of a larger maze. Warrens emerge through people personalizing and customizing their individual environments with some degree of emergent collaboration. A plaza is an environment where you can easily get to a global/big picture view of the whole thing. Plazas are created by central planners who believe they know what’s best for everyone.
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- Aug 2023
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www.scientificamerican.com www.scientificamerican.com
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Timmy Broderick in Evidence Undermines ‘Rapid Onset Gender Dysphoria’ Claims In Scientific American at 2023-08-24 (accessed:: 2023-08-25 09:26:00)
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Can policy promote beneficial norm change? The model suggests that effective interventions lower the tipping threshold.
- for: social tipping point, STP, TPF, social norms, complex contagion, lowering threshold
- policy changes can lower tipping point thresholds
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Two factors consistently helped hasten beneficial change in our study.
- for: social tipping point, STP, tipping point, social norm, complex contagion
- study findings
- Two factors can help hasten beneficial change
- common understanding of the benefits from change due to:
- events that attract attention
- opinion polls that aggregate information
- finding an angle on an issue that appeals to a broad demographics
- perserverence
- leaders who persevere even at great cost
- common understanding of the benefits from change due to:
- Two factors can help hasten beneficial change
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- Jul 2023
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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- for: social tipping point, STP
- title
- Creating Change: How to Make Big Things Happen
- guest
- Damon Centola
- description
- a very clear exposition of how complex contagion works and what must be done to spread complex behavior change
- comment
- this is particularly important for rapid whole system change and mobilizing a bottom-up movement to deal with our current polycrisis
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- Feb 2023
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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i can use myself as an example here i i consider myself a pretty smart person i'm in grad school i tried to be really analytical my whole 00:03:56 life and yet i showed up at college when i was 19 years old believing that all the supposedly scientific stuff that white nationalists used to support the idea of race being predictive and segregation being 00:04:09 good and all this stupid stuff i totally believed i thought they were right and i thought everybody was just denying it and it took a community of people in college over years to condemn my beliefs to 00:04:22 show me uh kindness to show me real vitriol to be these in these private conversations where we could go over the facts and it took a long time for me thinking i was really smart and analytical to 00:04:35 accept that it was morally wrong that it was ethically wrong
- comment
- Derek Black is an example
- of what it takes to undo deeply culturally conditioned misinformation
- these variables have to be present for that to work
- open mind
- patience
- accurate information
- a caring, patient, informed community
- Derek Black offers a lesson of what is required to depolarize society using social tipping points
- there needs to be scalable education program to reach still open-minded individuals holding opposing views
- to openly and respectfully debate difficult, polarizing issues
- in order to form the wide bridges necessary for social tipping points of complex issues
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penntoday.upenn.edu penntoday.upenn.edu
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real-life situations can be much more complicated, the authors’ model allows for the exact 25 percent tipping point number to change based on circumstances. Memory length is a key variable, and relates to how entrenched a belief or behavior is.
- 25% social tipping point threshold is adjustable
- depending on the variables of the context
- = question - how do we apply this adjustability for complex contagion such as climate change norms?
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www.google.com www.google.com
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25:13Complex Contagions
- = complex contagion
- example: climate change norms
- = complex contagion
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- Jan 2023
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www.complexityexplorer.org www.complexityexplorer.org
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Semantic leadership Extent to which word usage by one entity is subsequently adopted by others. Specifically, Klein measures how often novel semantic usage in a given newspaper is mirrored by other newspapers. When a newspaper is a semantic leader, its semantic usage better predicts the later usage of that word in other newspapers compared to those other newspapers' own, earlier usage of the word.
How might this leadership happen within the social epidemic view of Malcolm Gladwell's Tipping Point framework?
- the law of the few,
- the stickiness factor, and
- the power of context
and with respect to mavens, connectors, and salespeople?
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- Sep 2022
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www.scientificamerican.com www.scientificamerican.com
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A 2015 study by OSoMe researchers Emilio Ferrara and Zeyao Yang analyzed empirical data about such “emotional contagion” on Twitter and found that people overexposed to negative content tend to then share negative posts, whereas those overexposed to positive content tend to share more positive posts.
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- Nov 2021
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Wagner, U., & Echterhoff, G. (2021). Socially induced false memories in the absence of misinformation. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/f8eyr
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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i think the focus was very much on energy supply and to a limited extent on things like um yeah technologies and like vehicle 01:00:07 technologies for example but um much much less in terms of getting people to particularly in developed countries to use less energy and to change diet and to travel less and fly less and all these these things and i think part of 01:00:19 that and it is also reflected in the fact that it was fairly much absent in the uk's net zero strategy is that it is seen as being politically difficult that it might be a you know it might mean that they that politicians lose votes that 01:00:33 it's just too difficult to get people to change their behavior that it's threatening that it might mean lower standards of living um in developed countries etc so i think kind of it's still it's still seen as something and that that was quite explicit i think in 01:00:45 the forward to the uk strategy um so i think in terms of how we move beyond that that's that's difficult but i think it is about reframing behavior change and demand demand management in 01:00:58 much more positive terms to say this isn't a threat there are actually opportunities there are opportunities to improve people's health and well-being to create green jobs to reskill people in new sectors and 01:01:09 and so on and it is not about you know reducing uh quality of life or well-being it's not about people losing jobs etc so this is i think there's a job here to kind of reframe it in terms of those those opportunities and those 01:01:22 co-benefits so that would be my my initial thought
Reframing loss as gain is one strategy worth exploring for behavior change. Also explore social tipping points of complex contagion.
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www.yesmagazine.org www.yesmagazine.org
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social change typically spreads as ‘complex contagions,’ requiring multiple sources of social reinforcement to induce adoption,”
Climate change requires large investment in behavior change. It is a case of complex contagion, not simple contagion. Wide bridges are the key to bringing about social tipping points of complex contagion.
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www.theatlantic.com www.theatlantic.com
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Another person suspended from his job put it this way: “Someone who knows me, but maybe doesn’t know my soul or character, may be saying to themselves that prudence would dictate they keep their distance, lest they become collateral damage.”
Putting people beyond the pale creates a social contagion of sorts. It would be interesting to look at these cases from the perspective of public health and view these as disease. What information falls out of doing this? How does this model change?
From Applebaum's perspective that these cases may help sow the seeds of authoritarianism, could they be viewed as something like an initial case of untreated syphilis and authoritarianism becomes a version of festered stage three syphilis.
What other things may stem from these effects as second and third order problems from a complexity theory perspective?
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- Oct 2021
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english.elpais.com english.elpais.com
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Salas, M. Z., Javier. (2020, October 28). A room, a bar and a classroom: how the coronavirus is spread through the air. EL PAÍS. https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html
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- Jul 2021
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journals.sagepub.com journals.sagepub.com
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Carstensen, L. L., Shavit, Y. Z., & Barnes, J. T. (2020). Age Advantages in Emotional Experience Persist Even Under Threat From the COVID-19 Pandemic. Psychological Science, 31(11), 1374–1385. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797620967261
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twitter.com twitter.comTwitter1
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Leah Keating on Twitter: “This work with @DavidJPOS and @gleesonj is now on arXiv (https://t.co/hxjZnCmKcM): ‘A multi-type branching process method for modelling complex contagion on clustered networks’ Here is a quick overview of our paper: (1/6) https://t.co/3jQ2flhk71” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved July 23, 2021, from https://twitter.com/leahakeating/status/1418150117106978816
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- Jun 2021
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arxiv.org arxiv.org
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Reis, E. F. dos, & Masuda, N. (2021). Metapopulation models imply non-Poissonian statistics of interevent times. ArXiv:2106.10348 [Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2106.10348
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Burton, J. W., Cruz, N., & Hahn, U. (2021). Reconsidering evidence of moral contagion in online social networks. Nature Human Behaviour. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01133-5
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- Mar 2021
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arxiv.org arxiv.org
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Barrat, A., de Arruda, G. F., Iacopini, I., & Moreno, Y. (2021). Social contagion on higher-order structures. ArXiv:2103.03709 [Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2103.03709
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sebotero.github.io sebotero.github.io
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Bernheim, B. D., buchmann, N., Freitas-Groff, Z., & Otero, S. (2020). The Effects of Large Group Meetings on the Spread of COVID-19: The Case of Trump Rallies. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3722299
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- Jan 2021
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Collins, F. E. (2020, July 6). The Contagion Fear and Threat Scale: Measuring COVID-19 Fear in Australian, Indian, and Nepali University Students. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/4s65q
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Landry. N., Restrepo. J. G. (2020).The effect of heterogeneity on hypergraph contagion models. Physics and Society. Retrieved from: https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.15453
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Lewandowski. P., Lipowska. K., Magda. I., (2020) The Gender Dimension of Occupational Exposure to Contagion in Europe Institute of labor economics. Retrieved from: https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/dp13336/
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Papageorge. N. W., Zahn. M. V. Belot. M., van den Broek-Altenburg. E., Choi. S., Jamison. J. C., (2020). Socio-Demographic Factors Associated with Self-Protecting Behavior during the COVID-19 Pandemic. Institute of Labor Economics. Retrieved from: https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/dp13333/
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IZA – Institute of Labor Economics. ‘COVID-19 and the Labor Market’. Accessed 6 October 2020. https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/dp13670/.
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- Sep 2020
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Ehlert, A., Kindschi, M., Algesheimer, R., & Rauhut, H. (2020). Human social preferences cluster and spread in the field. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(37), 22787–22792. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2000824117
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- Aug 2020
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royalsocietypublishing.org royalsocietypublishing.org
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Stutt, R. O. J. H., Retkute, R., Bradley, M., Gilligan, C. A., & Colvin, J. (2020). A modelling framework to assess the likely effectiveness of facemasks in combination with ‘lock-down’ in managing the COVID-19 pandemic. Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 476(2238), 20200376. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2020.0376
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www.jpeds.com www.jpeds.com
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Yonker, L. M., Neilan, A. M., Bartsch, Y., Patel, A. B., Regan, J., Arya, P., Gootkind, E., Park, G., Hardcastle, M., John, A. S., Appleman, L., Chiu, M. L., Fialkowski, A., Flor, D. D. la, Lima, R., Bordt, E. A., Yockey, L. J., D’Avino, P., Fischinger, S., … Fasano, A. (2020). Pediatric SARS-CoV-2: Clinical Presentation, Infectivity, and Immune Responses. The Journal of Pediatrics, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpeds.2020.08.037
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arxiv.org arxiv.org
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Ran, Y., Deng, X., Wang, X., & Jia, T. (2020). A generalized linear threshold model for an improved description of the spreading dynamics. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 30(8), 083127. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0011658
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Stock, James H. ‘Data Gaps and the Policy Response to the Novel Coronavirus’. Working Paper. Working Paper Series. National Bureau of Economic Research, March 2020. https://doi.org/10.3386/w26902.
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Pindyck, R. S. (2020). COVID-19 and the Welfare Effects of Reducing Contagion (Working Paper No. 27121; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27121
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Wise, Toby, Giorgia Michelini, Tomislav Damir Zbozinek, Cindy C. Hagan, and Dean Mobbs. ‘Development and Validation of the Avoidance of Respiratory Viral Infection Scale (ARVIS)’, 17 July 2020. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/dkc7m.
Tags
- general trait anxiety
- psychometric properties
- questionnaire
- measures
- contagion
- ARVIS
- fearful
- Avoidance of Respiratory Viral Infection Scale
- evaluate
- fear
- state anxiety
- reliability
- mental health
- avoidance
- validity
- depression
- psychology
- handwashing
- daily behaviour
- social distancing
Annotators
URL
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Belli, S., & Alonso, C. V. (2020). COVID-19 Pandemic and Emotional Contagion: Societies facing Collapse [Preprint]. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/gdbw6
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Shah, C., Dehmamy, N., Perra, N., Chinazzi, M., Barabási, A.-L., Vespignani, A., & Yu, R. (2020). Finding Patient Zero: Learning Contagion Source with Graph Neural Networks. ArXiv:2006.11913 [Cs]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2006.11913
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Ngo, S.-C., Percus, A. G., Burghardt, K., & Lerman, K. (2020). The transsortative structure of networks. Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 476(2237), 20190772. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2019.0772
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Arenas, A., Cota, W., Gomez-Gardenes, J., Gomez, S., Granell, C., Matamalas, J. T., Soriano-Panos, D., & Steinegger, B. (2020). Derivation of the effective reproduction number R for COVID-19 in relation to mobility restrictions and confinement [Preprint]. Epidemiology. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.06.20054320
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Elias, M. (2020, May 9). Fear, judgment, hysteria: Six survivors talk about life after coronavirus. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/10/fear-judgment-hysteria-six-survivors-talk-about-life-after-coronavirus
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Liu, L., Wang, X., Tang, S., & Zheng, Z. (2020). Complex social contagion induces bistability on multiplex networks. ArXiv:2005.00664 [Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2005.00664
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Fan, R., Xu, K., & Zhao, J. (2020). Weak ties strengthen anger contagion in social media. ArXiv:2005.01924 [Cs]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2005.01924
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- Apr 2020
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Han, L., Lin, Z., Tang, M., Zhou, J., Zou, Y., & Guan, S. (2020). Impact of contact preference on social contagions on complex networks. Physical Review E, 101(4), 042308. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.101.042308
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arxiv.org arxiv.org
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Nanni, M., Andrienko, G., Boldrini, C., Bonchi, F., Cattuto, C., Chiaromonte, F., Comandé, G., Conti, M., Coté, M., Dignum, F., Dignum, V., Domingo-Ferrer, J., Giannotti, F., Guidotti, R., Helbing, D., Kertesz, J., Lehmann, S., Lepri, B., Lukowicz, P., … Vespignani, A. (2020). Give more data, awareness and control to individual citizens, and they will help COVID-19 containment. ArXiv:2004.05222 [Cs]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2004.05222
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science.sciencemag.org science.sciencemag.org
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Kissler, S. M., Tedijanto, C., Goldstein, E., Grad, Y. H., & Lipsitch, M. (2020). Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period. Science, eabb5793. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abb5793
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- Feb 2019
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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We saw the experimental development of this new “means of behavioural modification” in Facebook’s contagion experiments and the Google-incubated augmented reality game Pokémon Go.
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- Jul 2018
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www.thecut.com www.thecut.com
- Sep 2017
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rampages.us rampages.us
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is important to them
Bystander intervention could be contagious much like other healthy or unhealthy behavior is; we know obesity is contagious. Bystander intervention could travel as well.
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