Neural correlates of conceptual-level fear generalization in posttraumatic stress disorder

The catastrophic outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome - Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) also known as COVID-2019 has brought the worldwide threat to the living society. The whole world is putting incredible efforts to fight against the spread of this deadly disease in terms of infrastructure, finance, data sources, protective gears, life-risk treatments and several other resources. The artificial intelligence researchers are focusing their expertise knowledge to develop mathematical models for analyzing this epidemic situation using nationwide shared data. To contribute towards the well-being of living society, this article proposes to utilize the machine learning and deep learning models with the aim for understanding its everyday exponential behaviour along with the prediction of future reachability of the COVID-2019 across the nations by utilizing the real-time information from the Johns Hopkins dashboard.

COVID-19 Epidemic Analysis using Machine Learning and Deep Learning Algorithms

Is the spread of COVID-19 across countries influenced by environmental, economic and social factors?

The SARS-CoV-2 virus, emerged from Wuhan, China is spreading all over the world in an unprecedented manner, causing millions of infections and thousands of deaths. However, the spread of the disease across countries and regions are not even. Why some countries and regions are more affected than some other countries and regions? We employ simple statistical methods to investigate any linkage between the severity of the disease and the environmental, economic and social factors of countries. The estimation results indicate that the number of confirmed cases of Coronavirus infection is higher in countries with lower yearly average temperatures, higher economic openness, and stronger political democracy. However, findings of this analysis should be interpreted carefully keeping in mind the fact that statistical relations do not necessarily imply causation. Only clinical experiments with medical expertise can confirm how the virus behaves in the environment.

Habit Formation and Behavior Change

Within psychology, the term habit refers to a process whereby contexts prompt action automatically, through activation of mental context–action associations learned through prior performances. Habitual behavior is regulated by an impulsive process, and so can be elicited with minimal cognitive effort, awareness, control, or intention. When an initially goal-directed behavior becomes habitual, action initiation transfers from conscious motivational processes to context-cued impulse-driven mechanisms. Regulation of action becomes detached from motivational or volitional control. Upon encountering the associated context, the urge to enact the habitual behavior is spontaneously triggered and alternative behavioral responses become less cognitively accessible.By virtue of its cue-dependent automatic nature, theory proposes that habit strength will predict the likelihood of enactment of habitual behavior, and that strong habitual tendencies will tend to dominate over motivational tendencies. Support for these effects has been found for many health-related behaviors, such as healthy eating, physical activity, and medication adherence. This has stimulated interest in habit formation as a behavior change mechanism: It has been argued that adding habit formation components into behavior change interventions should shield new behaviors against motivational lapses, making them more sustainable in the long-term. Interventions based on the habit-formation model differ from non-habit-based interventions in that they include elements that promote reliable context-dependent repetition of the target behavior, with the aim of establishing learned context–action associations that manifest in automatically cued behavioral responses. Interventions may also seek to harness these processes to displace an existing “bad” habit with a “good” habit.Research around the application of habit formation to health behavior change interventions is reviewed, drawn from two sources: extant theory and evidence regarding how habit forms, and previous interventions that have used habit formation principles and techniques to change behavior. Behavior change techniques that may facilitate movement through discrete phases in the habit formation trajectory are highlighted, and techniques that have been used in previous interventions are explored based on a habit formation framework. Although these interventions have mostly shown promising effects on behavior, the unique impact on behavior of habit-focused components and the longevity of such effects are not yet known. As an intervention strategy, habit formation has been shown to be acceptable to intervention recipients, who report that through repetition, behaviors gradually become routinized. Whether habit formation interventions truly offer a route to long-lasting behavior change, however, remains unclear.

How are habits formed: Modelling habit formation in the real world

To investigate the process of habit formation in everyday life, 96 volunteers chose an eating, drinking or activity behaviour to carry out daily in the same context (for example ‘after breakfast’) for 12 weeks. They completed the self‐report habit index (SRHI) each day and recorded whether they carried out the behaviour. The majority (82) of participants provided sufficient data for analysis, and increases in automaticity (calculated with a sub‐set of SRHI items) were examined over the study period. Nonlinear regressions fitted an asymptotic curve to each individual's automaticity scores over the 84 days. The model fitted for 62 individuals, of whom 39 showed a good fit. Performing the behaviour more consistently was associated with better model fit. The time it took participants to reach 95% of their asymptote of automaticity ranged from 18 to 254 days; indicating considerable variation in how long it takes people to reach their limit of automaticity and highlighting that it can take a very long time. Missing one opportunity to perform the behaviour did not materially affect the habit formation process. With repetition of a behaviour in a consistent context, automaticity increases following an asymptotic curve which can be modelled at the individual level.

The UK government is advising people to stay home and only go out if they need to fetch food or medicine, to go to work if it's essential or to exercise.Even when you leave your home, you need to practise social distancing and keep at least 2m (6ft) away from other people to protect yourself from catching coronavirus. But what does it actually look like? The BBC's Laura Foster demonstrates.

What does 2m look like?

The coronavirus outbreak is sweeping the globe with outbreaks reported on every continent except Antarctica as of March 2020. Data scientists are uniquely and diversely skilled in ways that can be highly effective in minimizing, combatting, and recovering from the impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak. In this Opinion, the basics of biodefense as well as specific opportunities for the data science community to contribute are discussed.

A Primer on Biodefense Data Science for Pandemic Preparedness

The global epidemic pattern has dynamically changed from the first stage of a single epidemic center (China) in January and February to the second stage of multiple epidemic centers (Italy, Iran, and South Korea) in March. Towardsthe end of Marchhowever, the world beganexperiencing anextremely increasing number ofcases with an estimated 50,000 cases confirmed globally per day.Tocombat thispandemic, different strategies needto be tailored and implementedin countries with different situations.

Differentiating COVID-19 response strategies

Hell has frozen over. The world is in the grip of a pandemic that has closed down society, shuttered your lab, and threatens to cause millions of deaths and untold economic misery. You’re confined to your apartment, labs that have been converted into testing sites have all the volunteers they need, alcohol supplies have dwindled, and you’re discovering just how desperately you love experimental science. If someone lined up every complaint you’d ever made about boring techniques, failed experiments, and your idiot advisor and wrote each one on a large, separate piece of paper, you’d happily eat them all if it would let you back into lab to do your now beloved experiments and get on with your quest for scientific knowledge. But even this extreme feat of mastication won’t let you back into lab, so what should you do? Learn Python, write a fellowship proposal, read all those papers that you’ve always been meaning to digest? These are good ideas, but I claim to have a better one, which is to become a better experimentalist from the comfort of your very own couch plus everyone’s favorite new medium, Zoom.

The easy way is hard enuff

In the United States, black people are being admitted to hospital and dying in disproportionate numbers from the covid-19 pandemic. The Trump administration acknowledged the issue after a Washington Post analysis found that black majority counties had three times the coronavirus infection rate and almost six times the death rate of white majority counties.1The excess deaths among African-Americans “are shining a very bright light on some of the real weaknesses and foibles in our society,” said Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, adding that at least part of the problem was due to a higher burden of underlying medical conditions such as diabetes, hypertension, obesity, and asthma among African-Americans. “There’s nothing we can do about it right now except to try and give them the best possible care to avoid complications,” he said.The true scale of the disparity is unknown because so few states and counties include racial data in their reporting. Hundreds of doctors joined Democratic lawmakers this week in calling for more detailed information.

Covid-19: Black people and other minorities are hardest hit in US

A leading model now estimates tens of thousands fewer covid-19 deaths by summer

At a sober press briefing in the White House last week, members of President Trump's coronavirus task force unveiled data supporting the need to continue the national effort to limit the spread of the virus.Even while maintaining policies aimed at limiting person-to-person contact, the administration projected between 100,000 and 240,000 Americans would die of covid-19, the disease caused by the virus. One slide, using data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, showed a predicted peak in the daily death toll from the disease arriving in the middle of April.Anthony S. Fauci, a key member of the task force, made an important point about those projections the day before.AD“Models are as good as the assumptions you put into them, and as we get more data, then you put it in and that might change,” he said. That point was soon reinforced, with the IHME estimate shifting upward soon after the White House briefing.Late Tuesday night, however, the IHME estimate shifted in the other direction. While the model last week projected nearly 94,000 deaths by late summer, its new estimate puts the toll by August at 60,400 — a decline of 26 percent from the model’s previous estimate.

Clinicians are leading service reconfiguration to cope with covid-19

It’s not just the Nightingale hospitals—clinically led reorganisation is transforming how trusts are working, finds Jacqui ThorntonAs the NHS Nightingale hospitals attract widespread publicity,1 clinically led innovation is quietly—and quickly—transforming practice in acute trusts to cope with covid-19.Across the UK, the pace of change has been “breathtaking,” says Keith Girling, medical director at Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust. It’s not just the huge increase in intensive care capacity, there is also the reconfiguration of wards to accommodate more patients and redeployment of staff within those areas.Medical teams are working in completely different ways, with consultant led and delivered care provided around the clock; rotas have been rewritten wholesale; and areas of trusts that are quieter, such as clinical genetics and genitourinary medicine, are lending trainees and equipment to be used in imaginative ways, with consultants picking up the baseline.At the same time, IT proposals that before the outbreak were expected to take months have been accelerated and have come to fruition in days, and new clinical pathways have developed at record speed. This has happened at district general and large teaching hospitals alike. And, crucially, says David Oliver, consultant in geriatrics and acute general medicine at the Royal Berkshire NHS Foundation Trust and a columnist for The BMJ, much of this work was going on well before guidance from central bodies.

The doctors navigating covid-19 with no internet

Like many countries, India has entered a nationwide shut-in to protect its 1.3 billion citizens from coronavirus. But communications blackouts in the conflicted region of Jammu and Kashmir make lockdown doubly frightening, confusing, and dangerous, writes Puja Changoiwala

Crowdsourcing ideas to combat COVID-19

The COVID-19 crisis has brought unprecedented challenges for both people and society. We’re also seeing the power of human creativity and collaboration. One example is the Coronavirus Tech Handbook, the world's largest crowdsourced resource library of tech, tools and data relating to COVID-19 and supported by new grant funding from Nesta.

This is an exercice extracted from a paper in French (translated in English by Stephen Muecke) in AOC-Media A little exercise to make sure things don’t restart after the lock out just as they were before* If you wish to share your auto description: here is a platform: Proposed by @BrunoLatourAIME following arguments proposed in Down to Earth Politics in the New Climatic Regime (Polity, 2018). Let us take advantage of the forced suspension of most activities to take stock of those we would like to see discontinued and those, on the contrary, that we would like to see developed. I suggest that readers try to answer this short questionnaire for themselves. It will be especially useful as it will be based on a personal experience that has been directly lived. This exercise is not a question of expressing an opinion but of describing your situation and may be investigating. It is only later, if one were to give oneself the means of compiling the answers of many respondents and then composing the landscape created by their intersections, that one could find a form of political expression - but this time embodied and situated in a concrete world.

A little exercise to make sure that, after the virus crisis, things don’t start again as they were before

"back to the future", not "back to normal"I think that we should also see the current situation as a (tragic) opportunity to not go "back to normal" in all respects, rather to go "back to the future", that is: Trying to sustain certain changes that are beneficial to humanity on a large scale (e.g., combating climate change). Importantly, by that I don't mean indefinitely prolonging government interventions, but rather simply building on a changed mindset among many people.E.g., the pandemic has shown that many (most?) meetings can be meaningfully replaced by videoconferencing (and thus a lot of travel and travel costs can be avoided), that home office can work (in companies and institutions that previously claimed or acted otherwise) and many more things (online scientific conferences etc.).The pandemic has, for a better or worse, created a unique situation were the usual objections and obstacles to change on a large scale (e.g., coordination) do not have as much force (e.g., massive, worldwide changes with respect to many things).What can behavioral science contribute to this discussion?

The outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has placed unprecedented strain on health-care services worldwide, leading to more than 100 000 deaths worldwide, as of April 15, 2020.1WHOCoronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation report – 84.https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019Date: April 13, 2020Date accessed: April 14, 2020Google ScholarMost testing for SARS-CoV-2 aims to identify current infection by molecular detection of the SARS-CoV-2 antigen; this involves a RT-PCR of viral RNA in fluid, typically obtained from the nasopharynx or oropharynx.2Beeching NJ Fletcher TE Beadsworth MBJ Covid-19: testing times.BMJ. 2020; 369m1403Google ScholarThe global approach to SARS-CoV-2 testing has been non-uniform. In South Korea, testing has been extensive, with emphasis on identifying individuals with respiratory illness, and tracing and testing any contacts. Other countries (eg, Spain) initially limited testing to individuals with severe symptoms or those at high risk of developing them.Here we outline the case for mass testing of both symptomatic and asymptomatic health-care workers (HCWs) to: (1) mitigate workforce depletion by unnecessary quarantine; (2) reduce spread in atypical, mild, or asymptomatic cases; and (3) protect the health-care workforce.

COVID-19: the case for health-care worker screening to prevent hospital transmission

This short discussion paper sets out a framework for new operating models to guide work and thinking about the changing role and function of local government.

Signals in the Noise Modelling the patterns of change in local government

Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis

BackgroundIn the face of rapidly changing data, a range of case fatality ratio estimates for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been produced that differ substantially in magnitude. We aimed to provide robust estimates, accounting for censoring and ascertainment biases.MethodsWe collected individual-case data for patients who died from COVID-19 in Hubei, mainland China (reported by national and provincial health commissions to Feb 8, 2020), and for cases outside of mainland China (from government or ministry of health websites and media reports for 37 countries, as well as Hong Kong and Macau, until Feb 25, 2020). These individual-case data were used to estimate the time between onset of symptoms and outcome (death or discharge from hospital). We next obtained age-stratified estimates of the case fatality ratio by relating the aggregate distribution of cases to the observed cumulative deaths in China, assuming a constant attack rate by age and adjusting for demography and age-based and location-based under-ascertainment. We also estimated the case fatality ratio from individual line-list data on 1334 cases identified outside of mainland China. Using data on the prevalence of PCR-confirmed cases in international residents repatriated from China, we obtained age-stratified estimates of the infection fatality ratio. Furthermore, data on age-stratified severity in a subset of 3665 cases from China were used to estimate the proportion of infected individuals who are likely to require hospitalisation.FindingsUsing data on 24 deaths that occurred in mainland China and 165 recoveries outside of China, we estimated the mean duration from onset of symptoms to death to be 17·8 days (95% credible interval [CrI] 16·9–19·2) and to hospital discharge to be 24·7 days (22·9–28·1). In all laboratory confirmed and clinically diagnosed cases from mainland China (n=70 117), we estimated a crude case fatality ratio (adjusted for censoring) of 3·67% (95% CrI 3·56–3·80). However, after further adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment, we obtained a best estimate of the case fatality ratio in China of 1·38% (1·23–1·53), with substantially higher ratios in older age groups (0·32% [0·27–0·38] in those aged <60 years vs 6·4% [5·7–7·2] in those aged ≥60 years), up to 13·4% (11·2–15·9) in those aged 80 years or older. Estimates of case fatality ratio from international cases stratified by age were consistent with those from China (parametric estimate 1·4% [0·4–3·5] in those aged <60 years [n=360] and 4·5% [1·8–11·1] in those aged ≥60 years [n=151]). Our estimated overall infection fatality ratio for China was 0·66% (0·39–1·33), with an increasing profile with age. Similarly, estimates of the proportion of infected individuals likely to be hospitalised increased with age up to a maximum of 18·4% (11·0–37·6) in those aged 80 years or older.InterpretationThese early estimates give an indication of the fatality ratio across the spectrum of COVID-19 disease and show a strong age gradient in risk of death.

some questions about 'what-if' modelling

Governments are drawing on ‘what-if’ models to inform policy decisions – such as when/whether to use suppression or mitigation, recommend social distancing, close schools, enforce lock-down, testing regimes etc. As non-experts we would like to know more about the assumptions that go into these what-if models, and how the government use the expert advice based on these models to make decisionsSome questions (by no means exhaustive) … How do the models factor in:· Uncertainty in assumptions/parameters/ reliability of data and testing etc …· Outside information - eg about what’s happening in other countries (China/Italy etc), which have similarities/differences· Unknowns – such as unanticipated events or developments (eg new breathing aids, make-shift hospitals etc ) ..we would expect some new developments, even if one can't specify which.· People’s behaviour in reaction to the measures - notions of fatigue etc .. take-up of advice/messages etc … how are these included?Retrospective judgmentsI'm also wondering how these models might be used once the crisis runs its course, and we seek to attribute responsibility and blame (and learn for the future) -For causal questions, it seems we should include causal factors that happen through the course of the crisis, including events unanticipated at time of decisions, such as the design of new breathing aids, building new hospitals etc. We want to know which things made a difference to what actually happened.But for questions of blame we perhaps should not include factors that were not known by the decision makers, and need to focus on what the decision makers should reasonably have known at the time …which seems very hard to assess and model … How are these issues to be dealt with?

The pandemic will change the world permanently and profoundly. Even if countries can control the spread of COVID-19 in the coming months, there will be vast political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental consequences which will last many decades.In this article, we summarise and synthesise various - often opposing - views about how the world might change. Clearly, these are speculative; no-one knows what the future will look like. But we do know that crises invariably prompt deep and unexpected shifts, so that those anticipating a return to pre-pandemic normality may be shocked to find that many of the previous systems, structures, norms and jobs have disappeared and will not return.

There will be no 'back to normal'

In this report, we use survey data collected in late March and early April 2020 to document and understand how people in six countries (Argentina, Germany, South Korea, Spain, the UK, and the US) accessed news and information about COVID-19 in the early stages of the global pandemic, how they rate the trustworthiness of the different sources and platforms they rely on, how much misinformation they say they encounter, and their knowledge of and responses to the coronavirus crisis.

Navigating the ‘infodemic’: how people in six countries access and rate news and information about coronavirus

As a response to the Covid-19 outbreak, Ofcom is providing a range of information about how people are getting news and information about the crisis.We have commissioned a weekly online survey of around 2,000 people over the next three months, and also provide key findings from other datasets such as BARB and comScore.We are publishing this under our media literacy duties, as part of our Making Sense of Media programme. This work furthers our understanding around the access, consumption and critical engagement with news at this time, recognising that habits may intensify or change given the nature of the crisis. For pre-Covid-19 news consumption and attitudes, please see our News Consumption Survey.Given the increased concern about misinformation during this time, we are also providing information about fact-checking and debunking sites and tools.

Covid-19 news and information: consumption and attitudes

I am very interested in looking at resilience through Covid - how it impacts safe and healthy behaviours, and whether it will develop of this 'acute stressor'.However there are a huge stream of Covid-related projects going through ethics approval already, which will be competing with each other for participants. Before creating another, I wanted to know:Is anyone currently looking at this, or willing to include it in a study?If not, are there other questions which are not currently being asked, but could be included on such an application?

What Covid research collaborations are currently occuring, and is anyone looking at resilience?

£20 million for ambitious technologies to build UK resilience following coronavirus outbreak

Businesses to help boost the UK’s resilience to the long-term impact of coronavirus and similar future situations as a result of £20 million government funding.

The coronavirus pandemic has changed the use and communication of evidence, says Jonathan Breckon We are still in the midst of a terrifying upward curve of Covid-19 cases in the UK. History may show that countries such as the UK, United States and Sweden didn’t move fast enough. And there is so little understanding about the virus that the epidemiologist John Ioannidis wrote that it “might be a one-in-a-century evidence fiasco”.  But that sort of post-mortem is far off at the moment. Events are moving too fast to stop for an evaluation of progress. However, there are grounds for optimism around the use and communication of evidence during this pandemic, particularly around social science research and expertise. We need to search for the positives at times like these. So here are seven welcome emerging trends on the use and communication of evidence.

Seven welcome Covid-19 trends

The European Commission, led by the European Innovation Council and in close collaboration with the EU member states, will host a pan-European hackathon to connect civil society, innovators, partners and investors across Europe in order to develop innovative solutions for coronavirus-related challenges.

Today, we're proud to share how we've re-invented our programmes for these extraordinary times – always maintaining connection, community and our values (kindness, community, trust, bravery, learning) at their heart.

Re-inventing programmes for extraordinary times

Crowdfunding in a crisis

One striking feature of the current COVID-19 crisis is the crucial role that local communities have played in responding quickly to local needs and mobilising much-needed resources.Identifying which local causes need support and getting funds to them quickly is a common challenge.This blog gives a short introduction to how crowdfunding can be a good way of raising funds in a crisis by connecting people to local worthy causes, fast.

Innovation agency Nesta backs UK edtech start-up BibliU

Nesta is leading a $10m funding round for BibliU, which works with 40% of UK universities, Sky News understands.

Wearing face masks in the community during the COVID-19 pandemic: altruism and solidarity

As the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic progresses, one debate relates to the use of face masks by individuals in the community. We previously highlighted some inconsistency in WHO's initial January, 2020, guidance on this issue.1WHOAdvice on the use of masks in the community, during home care and in healthcare settings in the context of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak: interim guidance.https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/330987Date: Jan 29, 2020Date accessed: April 15, 2020Google Scholar,  2Chan AL-y Leung CC Lam TH Cheng KK To wear or not to wear: WHO's confusing guidance on masks in the covid-19 pandemic.BMJ Blog. March 11, 2020; https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/03/11/whos-confusing-guidance-masks-covid-19-epidemic/Date accessed: April 15, 2020Google Scholar WHO had not yet recommended mass use of masks for healthy individuals in the community (mass masking) as a way to prevent infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in its interim guidance of April 6, 2020.3WHOAdvice on the use of masks in the context of COVID-19: interim guidance.https://www.who.int/publications-detail/advice-on-the-use-of-masks-in-the-community-during-home-care-and-in-healthcare-settings-in-the-context-of-the-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)-outbreakDate: April 6, 2020Date accessed: April 15, 2020Google Scholar Public Health England (PHE) has made a similar recommendation.4Public Health EnglandCoronavirus (COVID-19)—what you need to know.https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2020/01/23/wuhan-novel-coronavirus-what-you-need-to-know/Date: Jan 23, 2020Date accessed: April 15, 2020Google Scholar By contrast, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) now advises the wearing of cloth masks in public5US Centers for Disease Control and PreventionRecommendation regarding the use of cloth face coverings, especially in areas of significant community-based transmission.https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cloth-face-cover.htmlDate: April 3, 2020Date accessed: April 15, 2020Google Scholar and many countries, such as Canada, South Korea, and the Czech Republic, require or advise their citizens to wear masks in public places.6Lee HK South Korea takes new measures to have enough face masks domestically amid coronavirus. ABC News.https://abcnews.go.com/International/south-korea-takes-measures-face-masks-domestically-amid/story?id=69254114Date: April 27, 2020Date accessed: April 15, 2020Google Scholar,  7Government of CanadaConsiderations in the use of homemade masks to protect against COVID-19. Notice to general public and healthcare professionals.https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada/services/drugs-health-products/medical-devices/activities/announcements/covid19-notice-home-made-masks.htmlDate: 2020Date accessed: April 15, 2020Google Scholar,  8Government of the Czech RepublicThe government requires the wearing of protective equipment and reserved time for pensioners to do their food shopping.https://www.vlada.cz/en/media-centrum/aktualne/the-government-has-decided-to-require-the-wearing-of-protective-equipment-and-reserved-time-for-senior-citizens-to-do-their-food-shopping-180465/Date: March 18, 2020Date accessed: April 15, 2020Google Scholar An evidence review9Howard J Huang A Li Z Tufekci Z et al.Face masks against COVID-19: an evidence review.Preprints. 2020; (published online April 12.) (preprint).DOI: 10.20944/preprints202004.0203.v1Google Scholar and analysis10Greenhalgh T Schmid MB Czypionka T Bassler D Gruer L Face masks for the public during the covid-19 crisis.BMJ. 2020; 369m1435Google Scholar have supported mass masking in this pandemic. There are suggestions that WHO and PHE are revisiting the question.11Giordano C Coronavirus: wearing face masks in public will likely become new norm, says WHO expert.The Independent. April 13, 2020; https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-face-masks-who-health-advice-covid-19-expert-a9462391.htmlDate accessed: April 15, 2020Google Scholar,  12

bayestestR

Become a Bayesian master you will Existing R packages allow users to easily fit a large variety of models and extract and visualize the posterior draws. However, most of these packages only return a limited set of indices (e.g., point-estimates and CIs). bayestestR provides a comprehensive and consistent set of functions to analyze and describe posterior distributions generated by a variety of models objects, including popular modeling packages such as rstanarm, brms or BayesFactor.

NOW-CASTING OF Covid-19 DEATHS IN ENGLISH HOSPITALS

Now-casting for England: By applying statistical now-casting, we do not need to wait as long as eight days to get a decent estimate (with specified uncertainty) for England’s hospitalized COVID-19 deaths. The below plots show now-casts of deaths for England.

Stress and trauma are ubiquitous in human life and cross multiple areas of psychological study. While there have been major developments in our understanding and treatment of stress-related disorders, there has been less focus on resilience, building of emotional strengths, and ways to buffer the effects of harmful stress. This unique APA interdivisional collaboration led by Division 18 in collaboration with Divisions 19, 38, and 56 seeks to produce a series of special issues across our four journals, focused on studies of resilience and strength in response to stress and trauma. This series will be jointly marketed and will collectively represent a body of published contemporary work on ways to build resilience that showcase psychology’s leading work on the topic. We seek a broad array of submissions including original articles, reviews, and theoretical papers on resilience and strength-building. A few commentaries may be considered as well. Below are some suggested areas that each journal may cover but submissions will not be limited to these areas. Each participating Division’s journal will handle submissions, resulting in a special issue published in each of the four journals. We ask that interested authors please e-mail a 250-word abstract to Dr. Jack Tsai by June 30, 2020. Submissions will be reviewed by journal editors and based on the topic area; authors will be asked to submit their paper to one of the following four journals Div. 18, Psychologists in Public Service (Journal: Psychological Services) Criminal justice, community and state hospitals, police and public safety, serious mental illness, veterans, and Indian country Div. 19, Society for Military Psychology (Journal: Military Psychology) Active military personnel and settings, mindfulness and well-being, technology-based intervention and services, and inoculation and special forces training Div. 38, Society for Health Psychology (Journal: Health Psychology) The role of psychological resilience in primary and secondary prevention of medical illnesses and in the course and outcomes of chronic pain and chronic medical conditions; interventions to increase resilience in medically ill individuals and caregivers. Div. 56, Trauma Psychology (Journal: Psychological Trauma: Theory, Research, Practice, and Policy) Posttraumatic growth and resilience, posttraumatic stress, neurobiology, sexual trauma, children and youth, complementary/alternative treatments

Interdivisional Call for Papers: Developing Resilience in Response to Stress and Trauma

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is creating unprecedented challenges at every level of society. Individuals with neurodevelopmental disorders, such as attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), are particularly vulnerable to the distress caused by the pandemic and physical distancing measures, and they might display increased behavioural problems. The crisis also poses several important questions for clinicians on how best to deliver care within the new restrictions. Therefore, the European ADHD Guidelines Group (EAGG) has developed guidance on the assessment and management of ADHD during the COVID-19 virus pandemic (see full guidance in the appendix).

ADHD management during the COVID-19 pandemic: guidance from the European ADHD Guidelines Group

COVID-19 does not affect everyone equally. In the US, it is exposing inequities in the health system. Aaron van Dorn, Rebecca E Cooney, and Miriam L Sabin report from New York.In the US, New York City has so far borne the brunt of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, with the highest reported number of cases and the highest death toll in the country. The first COVID-19 case in the city was reported on March 1, but community transmission was firmly established on March 7. As of April 14, New York State has tested nearly half a million people, among whom 195 031 have tested positive. In New York City alone, 106 763 people have tested positive and 7349 have died.

COVID-19 exacerbating inequalities in the US

Sustaining containment of COVID-19 in China

On April 8, China lifted its 76-day lockdown of Wuhan, with trains and flights resumed and highways reopened. Shanghai will reopen its schools for many students from April 27. Given that most new COVID-19 cases in China are imported, the country is reopening businesses and schools gradually and cautiously.

Public Health Principles for a Phased Reopening During COVID-19: Guidance for Governors

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to progress, most jurisdictions have implemented physical distancing measures to reduce further transmission, which have contributed to reductions in numbers of new cases. As chains of transmission begin to decline, along with new COVID-19 cases, there will need to be decisions at the state level about how to transition out of strict physical distancing measures and into a phased reopening. This document provides an assessment of the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a variety of organizations and settings that have been closed during the period in which physical distancing and mitigation measures have been put in place. We outline steps to reduce potential transmission during the reopening of these organizations and settings, building on the proposed phased approach from the National Coronavirus Response: A Road Map to Reopening. Reopening businesses and other sectors represents one of many steps that will need to be taken to revitalize communities recovering from the pandemic, restore economic activity, and mitigate the unintended public health impact of the distancing measures that were necessary to confront the epidemic of COVID-19. A discussion of larger community-wide considerations for holistically enhancing recovery can be found in the Appendix. State-level decision makers will need to make choices based on the individual situations experienced in their states, risk levels, and resource assessments, and they should do so in consultation with community stakeholder groups. Different parts of the country face varying levels of risk and have different resources available to confront these uncertainties. These decisions will need to be accompanied by clear and transparent communication to gain community engagement around the greatly anticipated reopenings. Individuals, businesses, and communities have a role to play in taking actions to protect themselves and those around them during this time. In this report, we offer a framework for considering risks regarding the likelihood of transmission and potential consequences of those transmissions. This is accompanied by proposed measures for nonessential businesses, schools and childcare facilities, outdoor spaces, community gathering spaces, transportation, mass gatherings, and interpersonal gatherings. This is followed by proposed action steps for state-level decision makers on how to utilize risk assessment findings.

Rapid Review Network for COVID-19 Registered Reports: REVIEWER SIGN UP FORM

Registered Reports are a form of empirical article offered by more than 200 journals in which study proposals are peer reviewed and pre-accepted before research is undertaken (for an overview see https://cos.io/rr/ and https://osf.io/preprints/metaarxiv/43298/). This article type offers a powerful tool for advancing research on COVID-19 by reducing publication bias and reporting bias in the growing evidence base.Royal Society Open Science is issuing a special call for Registered Report submissions that are relevant to COVID-19 in any field , including but not limited to biological, medical, economic, and psychological research. To maximise accessibility of the call, all article processing charges for these submissions are waived, and to ensure that submitted proposals can be rapidly reviewed and offered in-principle acceptance, the journal will strive to complete initial Stage 1 review within 7 days of receipt. ** We are seeking reviewers in all fields to help with this extraordinary effort by agreeing to review manuscripts within 24 to 48 hours after accepting a review request **Please complete this form if you can commit to reviewing Stage 1 or Stage 2 Registered Report submissions related to COVID-19 that fall within your field of expertise within 24 to 48 hours after agreeing to review. Completing this form does not compel you to accept a review request, but where you do accept a request, it reflects a commitment to provide the review within a rapid time frame.Your details will be held by Chris Chambers and the editorial team at Royal Society Open Science and will not be published. If you explicitly agree, your details may also be shared with editors and administrators at other journals that offer Registered Reports (listed at https://cos.io/rr/) where these journals also launch a rapid Registered Reports review process for COVID-19.

Positive pandemic?

Jennifer E. Symonds considers whether lockdown can actually improve your mental health and wellbeing.

“It’s quite generational, with younger people finding it more difficult than older people.” ⁦@BobbyDuffyKings⁩ spoke to ⁦@DAaronovitch⁩ on BBC Radio 4’s The Briefing Room about who is struggling most under the UK government’s lockdown measures

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is having a profound effect on all aspects of society, including mental health and physical health. We explore the psychological, social, and neuroscientific effects of COVID-19 and set out the immediate priorities and longer-term strategies for mental health science research. These priorities were informed by surveys of the public and an expert panel convened by the UK Academy of Medical Sciences and the mental health research charity, MQ: Transforming Mental Health, in the first weeks of the pandemic in the UK in March, 2020. We urge UK research funding agencies to work with researchers, people with lived experience, and others to establish a high level coordination group to ensure that these research priorities are addressed, and to allow new ones to be identified over time. The need to maintain high-quality research standards is imperative. International collaboration and a global perspective will be beneficial. An immediate priority is collecting high-quality data on the mental health effects of the COVID-19 pandemic across the whole population and vulnerable groups, and on brain function, cognition, and mental health of patients with COVID-19. There is an urgent need for research to address how mental health consequences for vulnerable groups can be mitigated under pandemic conditions, and on the impact of repeated media consumption and health messaging around COVID-19. Discovery, evaluation, and refinement of mechanistically driven interventions to address the psychological, social, and neuroscientific aspects of the pandemic are required. Rising to this challenge will require integration across disciplines and sectors, and should be done together with people with lived experience. New funding will be required to meet these priorities, and it can be efficiently leveraged by the UK’s world-leading infrastructure. This Position Paper provides a strategy that may be both adapted for, and integrated with, research efforts in other countries.

Multidisciplinary research priorities for the COVID-19 pandemic: a call for action for mental health science

Life under lockdown: coronavirus in the UK

A major new survey of the UK public by King's College London in partnership with Ipsos MORI shows there is strong understanding of the realities of Covid-19 and support for the government's measures – but there also remain widespread misperceptions, and many are struggling with life under "lockdown". The survey is based on 2,250 interviews with UK residents aged 18-75, and was carried out between 1 and 3 April 2020.

Perceptions and behavioural responses of the general public during the COVID-19 pandemic: A cross-sectional survey of UK Adults

Objective: To examine risk perceptions and behavioural responses of the UK adult population during the early phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK. Design: A cross-sectional survey Setting: Conducted with a nationally representative sample of UK adults within 48 hours of the UK Government advising the public to stop non-essential contact with others and all unnecessary travel. Participants: 2,108 adults living in the UK aged 18 years and over. Data were collected between March 17 and 18 2020. Main outcome measures: Descriptive statistics for all survey questions, including the number of respondents and the weighted percentages. Logistic regression was used to identify sociodemographic variation in: (1) adoption of social-distancing measures, (2) ability to work from home, and (3) willingness and (4) ability to self-isolate. Results Overall, 1,992 (94.2%) respondents reported taking at least one preventive measure: 85.8% washed their hands with soap more frequently; 56.5% avoided crowded areas and 54.5% avoided social events. Adoption of social-distancing measures was higher in those aged over 70 compared to younger adults aged 18 to 34 years (aOR:1.9; 95% CI:1.1 to 3.4). Those with the lowest household income were six times less likely to be able to work from home (aOR:0.16; 95% CI:0.09 to 0.26) and three times less likely to be able to self-isolate (aOR:0.31; 95% CI:0.16 to 0.58). Ability to self-isolate was also lower in black and minority ethnic groups (aOR:0.47; 95% CI:0.27 to 0.82). Willingness to self-isolate was high across all respondents. Conclusions The ability to adopt and comply with certain NPIs is lower in the most economically disadvantaged in society. Governments must implement appropriate social and economic policies to mitigate this. By incorporating these differences in NPIs among socio-economic subpopulations into mathematical models of COVID-19 transmission dynamics, our modelling of epidemic outcomes and response to COVID-19 can be improved.

COVID-19 Public Monitor