4,644 Matching Annotations
  1. May 2020
    1. 2020-03-16

    2. Chambers, C. (2020 March 16). CALLING ALL SCIENTISTS: Rapid evaluation of COVID19-related Registered Reports at Royal Society Open Science

      10 Updates*

    3. Each of us has a part to play in combatting the COVID-19 pandemic, including journals and Registered Reports (RRs). For those unfamiliar with RRs, they are a form of empirical article offered by more than 200 journals in which study proposals are peer reviewed and pre-accepted before research is undertaken. This article type offers a powerful tool for advancing research on COVID-19 by reducing publication bias and reporting bias in the growing evidence base. As the RR editor at Royal Society Open Science, I am announcing a special call for submissions that are relevant to any aspect of COVID-19 in any field, including but not limited to biological, medical, economic, and psychological research. All RRs at Royal Society Open Science are published open access (CC-BY) with accompanying open review. To maximise accessibility of the call, all article processing charges for these submissions are automatically waived, and to ensure that high quality protocols can be implemented as swiftly as possibly, the journal will strive to complete initial Stage 1 review within 7 days of receiving a submission.  This form of rapid review for RRs has never been attempted, and for it to succeed we need your help. 
    4. CALLING ALL SCIENTISTS: Rapid evaluation of COVID19-related Registered Reports at Royal Society Open Science
    1. 2020-04-28

    2. Lohse, S., Pfuhl, T., Berkó-Göttel, B., Rissland, J., Geißler, T., Gärtner, B., Becker, S. L., Schneitler, S., & Smola, S. (2020). Pooling of samples for testing for SARS-CoV-2 in asymptomatic people. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, S1473309920303625. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30362-5

    3. The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is a substantial challenge for health-care systems and their infrastructure. RT-PCR-based diagnostic confirmation of infected individuals is crucial to contain viral spread because infection can be asymptomatic despite high viral loads. Sufficient molecular diagnostic capacity is important for public health interventions such as case detection and isolation, including for health-care professionals.1Koo JR Cook AR Park M et al.Interventions to mitigate early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Singapore: a modelling study.Lancet Infect Dis. 2020; (published online March 23.)https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30162-6Google ScholarProtocols for RNA RT-PCR testing of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) became available early in the pandemic, yet the infrastructure of testing laboratories is stretched and in some areas it is overwhelmed.2Corman VM Landt O Kaiser M et al.Detection of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) by real-time RT-PCR.Euro Surveill. 2020; 252000045Google Scholar We propose a testing strategy that is easy to implement and can expand the capacity of the available laboratory infrastructure and test kits when large numbers of asymptomatic people need to be screened. We introduced the pooling of samples before RT-PCR amplification, and only in the case of positive pool test results is work-up of individual samples initiated, thus potentially substantially reducing the number of tests needed.
    4. Pooling of samples for testing for SARS-CoV-2 in asymptomatic people
    1. 2020-04-24

    2. Rotella, A. M., & Mishra, S. (2020, April 24). Personal relative deprivation negatively predicts engagement in group decision-making. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/6d35w

    3. Inequality has been linked with numerous negative consequences at the societal and individual levels. The detrimental effects of inequality are proposed to operate at the individual level through social comparisons, where perceived unfair disadvantage leads to the experience of personal relative deprivation (i.e., subjective feelings of anger and resentment), which in turn causes psychosocial stress. To date, little empirical work has investigated how individual differences in personal relative deprivation influences group dynamics. In a simulated high-pressure hypothetical scenario, first-year business students (n = 150) in groups of four to six were tasked to reach a consensus decision despite being assigned roles with competing interests, then they individually completed a survey. Greater feelings of personal relative deprivation were associated with reduced group engagement. Personal relative deprivation explained 9% of variance in group exercise engagement over and above demographic and situation-related variables (e.g., stress, perceived competition, role fit), and the overall regression model accounted for 58% of total variance in group. These findings suggest that such negative socioemotional comparison reactions as personal relative deprivation have important implications for group-based decision making and small group dynamics.
    4. Personal relative deprivation negatively predicts engagement in group decision-making
    1. 2020-04-15

    2. Lelonkiewicz, J. R., Gambi, C., Weller, L., & Pfister, R. (2020, April 15). Lelonkiewicz_et_al_2020_Adaptation_and_Anticipation. https://doi.org/10.1037/xhp0000717

    3. Interacting agents may anticipate their partner’s upcoming response and include it in their action plan. In turn, observing an overt response can trigger agents to adapt. But while anticipation and adaptation are known to shape action control, their interplay in social interactions remains largely unexplored. In four experiments, we asked how both of these mechanisms could contribute to one striking phenomenon: Agents initiate actions faster when they know their partner will produce a compatible rather than an incompatible response. In Experiment 1, we manipulated the compatibility between agents’ actions and partners’ responses, and investigated the interplay between adaptation and anticipation within the same dyadic interaction. In Experiments 2-4 we isolated the contribution of each of the two mechanisms by having agents interact with virtual partners whose responses could be experimentally controlled. We found that adaptation and anticipation exert parallel but independent effects on action execution: Participants initiated their actions more quickly when the upcoming partner response was compatible and, independently, when their partner had responded more quickly on the preceding trial. These findings elucidate models of action control in social interactions.
    4. Action-Effect Anticipation and Temporal Adaptation in Social Interactions
    1. 2020-04-20

    2. 2004.09603
    3. Recent studies have shown that online users tend to select information adhering to their system of beliefs, ignore information that does not, and join groups - i.e., echo chambers - around a shared narrative. Although a quantitative methodology for their identification is still missing, the phenomenon of echo chambers is widely debated both at scientific and political level. To shed light on this issue, we introduce an operational definition of echo chambers and perform a massive comparative analysis on more than 1B pieces of contents produced by 1M users on four social media platforms: Facebook, Twitter, Reddit, and Gab. We infer the leaning of users about controversial topics - ranging from vaccines to abortion - and reconstruct their interaction networks by analyzing different features, such as shared links domain, followed pages, follower relationship and commented posts. Our method quantifies the existence of echo-chambers along two main dimensions: homophily in the interaction networks and bias in the information diffusion toward likely-minded peers. We find peculiar differences across social media. Indeed, while Facebook and Twitter present clear-cut echo chambers in all the observed dataset, Reddit and Gab do not. Finally, we test the role of the social media platform on news consumption by comparing Reddit and Facebook. Again, we find support for the hypothesis that platforms implementing news feed algorithms like Facebook may elicit the emergence of echo-chambers.
    4. Echo Chambers on Social Media: A comparative analysis
    1. MindEd have selected the best advice and tips from our large panel of international experts. For all frontline staff created with NHS Health Education England in partnership with NHS England-Improvement, supported by Skills for Care.
    2. Coronavirus Staff Resilience Hub Helping frontline staff to manage your mental health and wellbeing
    1. 2020-03-18

    2. Krönke, J., Wunderling, N., Winkelmann, R., Staal, A., Stumpf, B., Tuinenburg, O. A., & Donges, J. F. (2020). Dynamics of tipping cascades on complex networks. Physical Review E, 101(4), 042311. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.101.042311

    3. Tipping points occur in diverse systems in various disciplines such as ecology, climate science, economy, and engineering. Tipping points are critical thresholds in system parameters or state variables at which a tiny perturbation can lead to a qualitative change of the system. Many systems with tipping points can be modeled as networks of coupled multistable subsystems, e.g., coupled patches of vegetation, connected lakes, interacting climate tipping elements, and multiscale infrastructure systems. In such networks, tipping events in one subsystem are able to induce tipping cascades via domino effects. Here, we investigate the effects of network topology on the occurrence of such cascades. Numerical cascade simulations with a conceptual dynamical model for tipping points are conducted on Erdős-Rényi, Watts-Strogatz, and Barabási-Albert networks. Additionally, we generate more realistic networks using data from moisture-recycling simulations of the Amazon rainforest and compare the results to those obtained for the model networks. We furthermore use a directed configuration model and a stochastic block model which preserve certain topological properties of the Amazon network to understand which of these properties are responsible for its increased vulnerability. We find that clustering and spatial organization increase the vulnerability of networks and can lead to tipping of the whole network. These results could be useful to evaluate which systems are vulnerable or robust due to their network topology and might help us to design or manage systems accordingly.
    4. Dynamics of tipping cascades on complex networks
    1. Wahn, B., & Kingstone, A. (2020, April 30). Sharing task load with artificial – yet human-like – co-actors. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/2am8y

    2. 2020-04-30

    3. In the near future humans will increasingly be required to cooperate and share task load with artificial agents (e.g., robots) as they will be able to greatly assist humans in various types of tasks and contexts. In the present study, we investigated humans’ willingness to share task load with an artificial agent (i.e., a computer program) in a joint visuospatial task. The agent was described as either behaving in a human-like or machine-like way and followed a pre-defined behaviour that was either human-like or non-human-like. We found that participants successfully shared task load when the agent behaved in a human-like way. Critically, the successful collaboration was sustained throughout the experiment only when the computer was also described as behaving in a human-like way beforehand. These findings suggest that not only the behaviour of artificial agents but also the description of the agent is a critical factor influencing humans’ willingness to share task load with an artificial agent.
    4. Sharing task load with artificial – yet human-like – co-actors
    1. 2020-04-29

    2. Although the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic reached South America a little later than other regions, such as Europe and the USA, every country in the continent has now recorded cases of COVID-19. The under-resourced public health systems of these middle-income or lower middle-income countries are inadequately prepared for any large-scale pandemic; many countries hope that the stringent social distancing and quarantine measures adopted will suppress at the least the first wave of cases.The leader of one country stands out for the wrong reasons. Jair Bolsonaro, President of Brazil, is facing protests for his perceived poor handling of the crisis. Despite Brazil having the most cases of COVID-19 across the continent (almost 41 695 cases and 3000 deaths by April 22, 2020), he has consistently downplayed the severity of the pandemic, calling it a “little flu”. He has repeatedly and publicly clashed with state governors around Brazil for their strict implementation of social distancing measures, including the banning of public gatherings and the closure of schools. He has appeared regularly on television addressing the nation regarding the pandemic and has used phrases such as, ”get back to work” and “people die, that's life”. As recently as April 19, he attended a protest against social distancing in the capital Brasilia.
    3. South America prepares for the impact of COVID-19
    1. 2020-04-29

    2. Makoni, M. (2020). Keeping COVID-19 at bay in Africa. The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, S2213260020302198. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2213-2600(20)30219-8

    3. On Feb 15, 2020, Egypt recorded Africa's first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) 12 days later, Nigeria recorded the first sub-Saharan Africa incident. 2 months later, the Comoro Islands and eSwatini are the only two countries of 54 in Africa that are unaffected by the global pandemic, stretching health systems and nearly paralysing economies.The African Centre for Disease Control (Africa CDC), an African Union body partnering with the WHO Regional Office for Africa, is leading broad measures to control COVID-19. The disease has since accelerated in Africa, reaching 27 427 cases, 1298 deaths, and 7474 recoveries as of April 24. Compared with the rest of the world, Africa's infection rates are relatively low, but there is a growing sense of urgency given the acute absence of health-care infrastructure on the continent.
    4. Keeping COVID-19 at bay in Africa
    1. 2020-04-29

    2. Kalu, B. (2020). COVID-19 in Nigeria: A disease of hunger. The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, S2213260020302204. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2213-2600(20)30220-4

    3. With a population of over 200 million people, Nigeria is one of the most populous black nations worldwide. As with the rest of the world, Nigeria is currently dealing with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, but in a somewhat different fashion.On Feb 27, 2020, the first official case of COVID-19 in Nigeria was announced. The patient was an Italian citizen, who had recently arrived in Lagos from Europe and who, a few days later, tested positive for the disease. In Ogun state, a neighboring state to Lagos, another patient was identified and was discovered to have been in contact with the first patient. Since then, the situation has developed with more cases occurring, regardless of measures initiated by the state and federal government to combat the virus and return to normalcy. As of April 22, there were 873 confirmed cases, 197 recoveries, and 28 deaths.
    4. COVID-19 in Nigeria: a disease of hunger
    1. 2020-04-30

    2. Rathi, A. (2020, April 30). Renewables Are the Only Winners in Historic Decline in Energy Demand. Bloomberg.Com. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-30/renewables-are-the-only-winners-in-historic-decline-in-energy-demand

    3. The coronavirus lockdown will cause the biggest drop in energy demand in history, with only renewables managing to increase output through the crisis.As people around the world consume less oil, gas and coal, electricity generated from the wind and sun will keep flowing, resulting in an unprecedented 8% decline in global carbon dioxide emissions this year, according to a report from the International Energy Agency. 
    4. Renewables Are the Only Winners in Historic Decline in Energy Demand
    1. 2020-05-01

    2. Pieper, D. (2020, May 1). Challenging social systems under the threat of pollution: Replication and extension of Eadeh and Chang (2019). Retrieved from psyarxiv.com/axbj4

    3. I replicated and extended Eadeh and Chang (2019; Study 2) who found that reading a story about pollution harming a child increased self-reported liberalism and increased support for environmental regulation policies through greater negative affect (i.e., anger and disgust) (Hypothesis 1). Eadeh and Chang’s (2019) threat-affordance model posits that perceived threat can increase greater support for liberalism or greater support for conservatism, depending on the type of threat. In contrast, Jost and colleagues’ (2003) system justification theory posits that perceived threat asymmetrically predicts greater support for conservatism and greater system-supporting collective action. This article advances a synthesis of these two theoretical perspectives such that the threat of environmental pollution (a) increases system-challenging collective action intentions and donation behavior through negative affect (Hypothesis 2) and (b) increases liberalism, support for environmental regulation, collection action intentions, and donation behavior through lower system justification (moderated by empathy), greater perceived injustice, and greater negative affect (in order; Hypothesis 3).
    4. Challenging social systems under the threat of pollution: Replication and extension of Eadeh and Chang (2019)
    1. Olthof, M., Hasselman, F., & Lichtwarck-Aschoff, A. (2020, May 1). Complexity In Psychological Self-Ratings: Implications for research and practice. Retrieved from psyarxiv.com/fbta8

    2. 2020-05-01

    3. Background: Psychopathology research is changing focus from group-based ‘disease models’ to a personalized approach inspired by complex systems theories. This approach, which has already produced novel and valuable insights into the complex nature of psychopathology, often relies on repeated self-ratings of individual patients. So far it has been unknown whether such self-ratings, the presumed observables of the individual patient as a complex system, actually display complex dynamics. We examine this basic assumption of a complex systems approach to psychopathology by testing repeated self-ratings for three markers of complexity: memory, the presence of (time-varying) short- and long-range temporal correlations, regime shifts, transitions between different dynamic regimes, and, sensitive dependence on initial conditions, also known as the ‘butterfly effect’, the divergence of initially similar trajectories. Methods: We analysed repeated self-ratings (1476 time points) from a single patient for the three markers of complexity using Bartels rank test, (partial) autocorrelation functions, time-varying autoregression, a non-stationarity test, change point analysis and the Sugihara-May algorithm. Results: Self-ratings concerning psychological states (e.g., the item ‘I feel down’) exhibited all complexity markers: time-varying short- and long-term memory, multiple regime shifts and sensitive dependence on initial conditions. Unexpectedly, self-ratings concerning physical sensations (e.g., the item ‘I am hungry’) exhibited less complex dynamics and their behaviour was more similar to random variables. Conclusions: Psychological self-ratings display complex dynamics. The presence of complexity in repeated self-ratings means that we have to acknowledge that (1) repeated self-ratings yield a complex pattern of data and not a set of (nearly) independent data points, (2) humans are ‘moving targets’ whose self-ratings display non-stationary change processes including regime shifts, and (3) long-term prediction of individual trajectories may be fundamentally impossible. These findings point to a limitation of popular statistical time series models whose assumptions are violated by the presence of these complexity markers. We conclude that a complex systems approach to mental health should appreciate complexity as a fundamental aspect of psychopathology research by adopting the models and methods of complexity science. Promising first steps in this direction, such as research on real-time process-monitoring, short-term prediction, and just-in-time interventions, are discussed.
    4. Complexity In Psychological Self-Ratings: Implications for research and practice
    1. 2020-05-01

    2. A lockdown of people has been used as an efficient public health measure to fight against the exponential spread of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) and allows the health system to manage the number of patients. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of both perceived stress aroused by Covid-19 and of emotions triggered by the lockdown situation on the individual experience of time. A large sample of the French population responded to a survey on their time experience during the lockdown compared to before the lockdown. The perceived stress resulting from Covid-19 and stress at work and home were also assessed, as were the emotions felt. The results showed that people have experienced a slowing down of time during the lockdown. This time experience was not explained by the levels of perceived stress or anxiety, although these were considerable, but rather by the increase in boredom and sadness felt in the lockdown situation. The increased anger and fear of death only explained a small part of variance in the time judgment. The conscious experience of time therefore reflected the psychological difficulties experienced during lockdown and was not related to their perceived level of stress or anxiety.
    3. PONE-D-20-12336. Time and Covid-19 stress in the lockdown situation: Time Free, Dying of Boredom and Sadness
    1. 2020-05-02

    2. Djalante, R., Lassa, J., Nurhidayah, L., Van Minh, H., Mahendradhata, Y., Phuong, N. T. N., … Sinapoy, M. S. (2020, May 2). The ASEAN’s responses to COVID-19: A policy sciences analysis. Retrieved from psyarxiv.com/8347d

    3. The World Health Organisation (WHO) announced the new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) it as a pandemic on March 11th, 2020. The pandemic has brought havoc globally as more than 190 countries and territories are affected as of 30 April 2030. The crisis suggests that no country can deal with the pandemic alone. International cooperation including regional cooperation is essential for any country to survive. We are particularly interested in Association of South East Asian Nation (ASEAN) cooperation and performance under COVID-19 because it has been one of the regions where regional cooperation on health security has been functioning based on lessons from SARS 2003 and H1N1 2009. The “One Vision, One Identity, One Community” of ASEAN has merits under COVID-19 response but remains invisible. The method encompasses analysis of published materials issued by and accessible from the ASEAN website, complemented with analysis for media articles including social media, supported by published academic journal articles. All of the authors have expertise on ASEAN policies in the field of health, disasters, and regional policy and planning. Some authors have also worked from various international organisations working on issues related to the ASEAN region. This paper aims to document and analyse how ASEAN member states respond to COVID-19. It asks how to cooperate under the One-ASEAN-One Response framework. This paper also compares the 10 member states’ policy responses from January to April 2020. We utilise the framework of policy sciences to analyse the responses. We found that the early regional response was slow and lack of unity (January - February 2020). Extensive early measures taken by each member state are the key to the success to curb the spread of the virus. Although, during March and April 2020, ASEAN has reconvened and utilised its existing health regional mechanism to try to have a coherent response to the impacts. Strengthening future collaboration should be implemented by recognizing that there is a more coherent, multi sectoral, multi stakeholders and whole-of-ASEAN Community approach in ensuring ASEAN’s timely and effective response to the pandemic.
    4. The ASEAN’s responses to COVID-19: A policy sciences analysis
    1. 2020-04-30

    2. Di Giorgio, E., Di Riso, D., Mioni, G., & Cellini, N. (2020, April 30). The interplay between mothers’ and children behavioral and psychological factors during COVID-19: An Italian study. Retrieved from psyarxiv.com/dqk7h

    3. Italy has been the first nation outside of Asia to face the COVID-19 outbreak. To limit viral transmission of infection, by March 10th, 2020, the Italian Government has ordered a national lockdown, which established home confinement, home (smart) working, and temporary closure of non-essential businesses and schools. The present study investigated how these restrictive measures impacted mothers and their pre-school children's behavioral habits (i.e., sleet timing and quality, subjective time experience) and psychological well-being (i.e., emotion regulation, self-regulation capacity). An online survey was administered to 245 mothers with pre-school children (from 2 to 5 years). Mothers were asked to fill the survey thinking both on their habits, behaviors, and emotions and on those of their children during the quarantine, and retrospectively, before the national lockdown (i.e., in late February). A general worsening of sleep quality and distortion of time experience in both mothers and children, as well as increasing emotional symptoms and self-regulation difficulties in children, was observed. Moreover, the interplay between the behavioral and psychological factors in predicting mothers’ and children's well-being perception changed when different working conditions were taken into account, especially for mothers who had to stop working or moved to smart working. Overall, central institutions urgently need to implementing special programs for families, including not only psychological support to sustain families with working parents and ameliorating children's management.
    4. The interplay between mothers’ and children behavioral and psychological factors during COVID-19: An Italian study
    1. 2020-04-30

    2. Orben, A. (2020, April 30). The Sisyphean Cycle of Technology Panics. Retrieved from psyarxiv.com/dqmju

    3. Widespread concerns about new technologies – whether they be novels, radios or smartphones – are repeatedly found throughout history. While past panics are often met with amusement today, current concerns routinely engender large research investments and policy debate. What we learn from studying past technological panics, however, is that these investments are often inefficient and ineffective. What causes technological panics to repeatedly reincarnate? And why does research routinely fail to address them? To answer such questions, this article examines the network of political, population and academic factors driving the Sisyphean Cycle of Technology Panics. In this cycle, psychologists are encouraged to spend time investigating new technologies, and how they affect children and young people, to calm a worried population. Their endeavour is however rendered ineffective due to a lacking theoretical baseline; researchers cannot build on what has been learnt researching past technologies of concern. Thus academic study seemingly restarts for each new technology of interest, slowing down the policy interventions necessary to ensure technologies are benefitting society. This article highlights how the Sisyphean Cycle of Technology Panics stymies psychology’s positive role in steering technological change, and highlights the pervasive need for improved research and policy approaches to new technologies.
    4. The Sisyphean Cycle of Technology Panics
    1. 2020-04-29

    2. Background: Elevated neuroticism may confer vulnerability to the depressogenic effects of stressful life events (SLEs). Vulnerability to stress-related disruption of neural reward processing is a promising neural mechanism undergirding links between stress and depression. Methods: Data came from 2 studies: the St. Louis Personality and Aging Network (SPAN) study and the Duke Neurogenetics Study (DNS). In SPAN, we used longitudinal self-reported data from older adults (n=971) to examine whether neuroticism moderates the association between recent stressful life events and subsequent depressive symptoms. In the DNS, we tested whether this interaction is present among young adult college students (n=1,343), and further whether neuroticism moderates the association between SLEs and reward-related ventral striatum activation as measured using functional magnetic resonance imaging (n=1,195). Results: In SPAN, SLEs prospectively predicted future depressive symptoms, especially among those reporting elevated N, even after accounting for prior depressive symptoms and previous SLE exposure (NxSLE interaction: p=0.016, ΔR2=0.003). In Study 2, we replicated this effect (NxSLE interaction: p=0.019, ΔR2=0.003). Further, neuroticism moderated the association between SLEs and reward-related left VS activity such that individuals with high neuroticism who were also exposed to more SLEs had blunted reward-related left VS activation (NxSLE: p=0.017, ΔR2=0.0048) which was associated with a lifetime depression diagnosis (r=-0.07, p=0.02), but not current depressive symptoms (r=-0.003, p=0.93). Conclusions: These data suggest that neuroticism may promote vulnerability to stress-related depression, and that sensitivity to stress-related VS dysfunction may be a potential neural mechanism underlying vulnerability to stress-related clinically significant depression.
    3. Neuroticism and reward-related ventral striatum activity: Probing vulnerability to stress-related depression
    1. 2020-04-30

    2. Horstmann, K. T., Rauthmann, J. F., Sherman, R. A., & Ziegler, M. (2020, April 30). Unveiling an Exclusive Link: Predicting Behavior with Personality, Situation Perception, and Affect in a Pre-Registered Experience Sampling Study. Retrieved from psyarxiv.com/ztw2n

    3. Affect and situation perception are intertwined in any given situation, but the extent to which both predict behavior jointly and uniquely has not yet been systematically examined so far. Using two studies with experience sampling methodology (ESM), we examine how trait-like variables (Big Six, trait affect, general situation experience) and state-like variables (momentary affect, happiness, and situation perception) account for variance in self-reported behavioral states of the Big Six. In Study 1, we re-analyzed data from Sherman, Rauthmann, Brown, Serfass, and Jones (2015) and found that situation perception explained variance in self-reported behavior in logically coherent ways, but only after considering happiness as an additional predictor. These results were replicated in pre-registered Study 2, in which positive and negative affect were additionally assessed as distinct variables. Based on both studies, we conclude that personality traits, affect, and situation perception contribute uniquely to the explanation of self-reported behavior in daily life. Importantly, situation perceptions and affect do overlap, but they are neither the same nor redundant with each other. Indeed, theoretically justified and logically coherent links between situation perceptions and behavioral states remain intact once affect is controlled for, while the links not predicted by theory disappear. These results have implications for personality theories as well as appraisal theories of emotion.
    4. Unveiling an Exclusive Link: Predicting Behavior with Personality, Situation Perception, and Affect in a Pre-Registered Experience Sampling Study
    1. 2020-04-30

    2. Barrafrem, K., Västfjäll, D., & Tinghög, G. (2020, April 30). Financial well-being, COVID-19, and the financial better-than-average-effect. Retrieved from psyarxiv.com/tkuaf

    3. At the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak we conducted a survey (n=1000) regarding how people assess the near future economic situation within their household, nation, and the world. Together with psychological factors related to information processing we link these prospects to financial well-being. We find that, although generally very pessimistic, a substantial proportion of individuals believes that national and global economy will be doing worse than their household, what we call a financial ”better-than-average effect”. Furthermore, we find that private economic outlook and financial ignorance are linked to financial well-being while financial literacy and the (inter)national situation are not.
    4. Financial well-being, COVID-19, and the financial better-than-average-effect
    1. 2020-04-30

    2. Thorneloe, R., Epton, T., Fynn, W., Daly, M., Stanulewicz, N., Kassianos, A., … Hart, J. (2020, April 30). SCOPING REVIEW OF MOBILE PHONE APP UPTAKE AND ENGAGEMENT TO INFORM DIGITAL CONTACT TRACING TOOLS FOR COVID-19. Retrieved from psyarxiv.com/qe9b6

    3. BACKGROUND Digital contact tracing apps have been proposed as a method of controlling the spread of Covid-19. The effectiveness of this tool depends largely on adequate levels of uptake (e.g. whether the user downloads and registers on the application) and engagement (e.g. the extent of usage of the application or its components over time). It has been estimated that approximately 60% of the population would need to use the NHSX application in order for it to be effective in reducing the spread of COVID-19. It is therefore crucial that we understand the level of, and factors influencing, uptake and engagement with digital tracing applications in order to put appropriate measures in place to mitigate those issues. AIMS 1. To quantify the current data on COVID-19 digital contact tracing applications a. Uptake and engagement of COVID-19 digital contact tracing applications b. Examine whether uptake differs between countries c. Identify any predictors or correlates of uptake and engagement 2. To conduct two scoping reviews to identify key barriers and facilitators influencing engagement and uptake of a. COVID-19 digital contact tracing applications b. Health behaviour change applications, including government approved applications, from academic literature and behaviour change guidelines CONCLUSIONS • There is no evidence on the level of uptake and engagement with COVID-19 digital contact tracing applications. • There is a dearth of evidence regarding the barriers and facilitators to uptake and engagement with COVID-19 digital contact tracing applications. • The health behaviour change literature suggests a number of barriers and facilitators associated with uptake and engagement with applications.
    4. SCOPING REVIEW OF MOBILE PHONE APP UPTAKE AND ENGAGEMENT TO INFORM DIGITAL CONTACT TRACING TOOLS FOR COVID-19
  2. Apr 2020
    1. 2020-04-30

    2. Weinstein, N., & Nguyen, T. T. (2020, April 30). Motivation and Preference in Isolation: A test of their different influences on responses to self-isolation during the COVID-19 outbreak. Retrieved from psyarxiv.com/pbgq7

    3. This multi-wave study examined the extent that both preference and motivation for time alone shapes ill-being during self-isolation. Individuals in the US and UK are self-isolating in response to the COVID-19 outbreak. Different motivations may drive their self-isolation: some might see value in it (understood as the identified form of autonomous motivation), while others might feel forced into it by authorities or close others (family, friends, neighbourhoods, doctors; the external form of controlled motivation). People who typically prefer company will find themselves spending more time alone, and may experience differential ill-being uniformly, or as a function of their identified or external motivations for self-isolation. Self-isolation therefore offers a unique opportunity to distinguish two constructs coming from disparate literatures. This project examined preference and motivation (identified and external) for solitude, and tested their independent and interacting contributions to ill-being (loneliness, depression, and anxiety during time spent alone) across two weeks. Confirmatory hypotheses regarding preference and motivation were not supported by the data. A statistically significant effect of controlled motivation on change in ill-being was observed one week later, and preference predicted ill-being across two weeks. However, effect sizes for both were below our minimum threshold of interest.
    4. Motivation and Preference in Isolation: A test of their different influences on responses to self-isolation during the COVID-19 outbreak
    1. 2020-04-30

    2. Tarbox, C., Silverman, E. A., Chastain, A. N., Little, A., Bermudez, T. L., & Tarbox, J. (2020, April 30). Taking ACTion: 18 Simple Strategies for Supporting Children with Autism During the COVID-19 Pandemic. Retrieved from psyarxiv.com/96whj

    3. The COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically uprooted the lives of families around the world. Families living with children with autism may be particularly affected due to being abruptly deprived of their usual in-person support from applied behavior analysis (ABA) service providers. This article gives how-to instructions on 18 simple ACT training programs that can be used as supplements to ongoing ABA services to support children with autism whose verbal repertoires may play a part in the challenges they are facing during the current crisis. We describe several challenges that have been frequently reported by families and ABA practitioners during the pandemic. For each behavioral challenge, we provide a brief practical description, brief behavioral conceptual description, and how-to guidance on implementing ACT procedures that address each behavioral challenge at a functional level. The appendix contains child- friendly worksheets for practitioners to use as visual supports while implementing the intervention procedures.
    4. Taking ACTion: 18 Simple Strategies for Supporting Children with Autism During the COVID-19 Pandemic
    1. 2020-04-30

    2. Johnson, S. G. B., Bilovich, A., & Tuckett, D. (2020, April 30). Conviction Narrative Theory: A Theory of Choice Under Radical Uncertainty. Retrieved from psyarxiv.com/urc96

    3. Real-world decisions often take place under radical uncertainty—where outcomes cannot be enumerated and probabilities cannot be assigned. Conviction Narrative Theory (CNT) is a theory of choice under radical uncertainty. Whereas most theories of choice assume that people rely on (potentially biased) probabilistic judgments, such theories cannot account for adaptive decision-making when probabilities cannot be assigned. CNT proposes that people use narratives—structured causal hypotheses—rather than probabilities, as the currency of thought that unifies our sense-making and decision-making faculties. According to CNT, narratives arise from the interplay between individual cognition and the social environment, with reasoners adopting a narrative to explain the available evidence; using that narrative to imagine plausible futures; and affectively evaluating those imagined futures to make a choice. Evidence from many different areas of the cognitive, behavioral, and social sciences supports this basic model, including lab experiments, interview studies, and econometric analyses. We describe several varieties of narratives that govern decisions, documenting the psychological mechanisms governing their evaluation and their use in decision-making. We suggest two ways in which narratives and affect work together to support adaptive decision-making—evaluating the compatibility of imagined futures and goals and maintaining conviction to act in the face of ambivalent reasons and changing information. We conclude by discussing practical implications of CNT and its generativity for future research.
    4. Conviction Narrative Theory: A Theory of Choice Under Radical Uncertainty
    1. 2020-04-29

    2. Hamilton, J. L., Nesi, J., & Choukas-Bradley, S. (2020, April 29). Teens and social media during the COVID-19 pandemic: Staying socially connected while physically distant. Retrieved from psyarxiv.com/5stx4

    3. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the health, safety, and daily lives of all individuals. Adolescents may be uniquely sensitive to this abrupt disruption in their lives due to the biological and psychological changes that occur during this developmental period. Social media has rapidly transformed the ways in which adolescents socialize and interact with one another, which has contributed to an ongoing debate about whether social media is helping or harming teens today. The COVID-19 pandemic has only magnified this societal dilemma as teens are spending more time than ever before on social media. Thus, it is important for parents, educators, and teens to better understand social media use in the context of COVID-19. This article discusses the implications of social media for adolescent development and mental health in the context of COVID-19, with attention to the ways in which social media may be especially helpful for teens in the midst of physical distancing practices, as well as how social media behaviors can negatively impact teens’ physical and mental health during this time. Using research and theory, the article provides practical guidance on facilitating teens’ helpful use of social media and mitigating its negative effects during the COVID-19 pandemic. As more people than ever before are relying on social media to maintain social connection and ward off social isolation, this article may be useful for people of all ages who aim to understand the benefits and drawbacks of social media use during the COVID-19 pandemic.
    4. Teens and social media during the COVID-19 pandemic: Staying socially connected while physically distant
    1. 2020-04-22

    2. Edelsbrunner, P. A., & Thurn, C. (2020, April 22). Improving the Utility of Non-Significant Results for Educational Research. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/j93a2

    3. Non-significant results have the potential to further our understanding of what does not work in education, and why. We make three contributions to harness this potential and to improve the usage and interpretation of non-significant results. To evaluate current practices, we conduct a review of misinterpretations of non-significant p-values in recent educational research. The review indicates that over 90% of non-significant results are erroneously interpreted as indicating the absence of an effect, or a difference compared to a significant effect. Researchers sometimes link these misinterpretations with potentially erroneous conclusions for educational theory, practice, or policy. To improve the status quo and make non-significant results more informative, we provide a detailed framework based on which researchers can design, conduct, and analyze studies that yield reliable evidence regarding the actual absence of an effect. In addition, we provide a competence model that researchers can use to guide their own research and teaching.
    4. Improving the Utility of Non-Significant Results for Educational Research
    1. 2020-04-22

    2. Huang, K., Bernhard, R., Barak-Corren, N., bazerman, m., & Greene, J. D. (2020, April 22). Veil-of-Ignorance Reasoning Favors Allocating Resources to Younger Patients During the COVID-19 Crisis. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/npm4v

    3. The COVID-19 crisis has forced healthcare professionals to make tragic decisions concerning which patients to save. A utilitarian principle favors allocating scarce resources such as ventilators toward younger patients, as this is expected to save more life-years. Some view this as ageist, instead favoring age-neutral principles, such as “first come, first served”. Which approach is fairer? Veil-of-ignorance reasoning is a decision procedure designed to produce fair outcomes. Here we apply veil-of-ignorance reasoning to the COVID-19 ventilator dilemma, asking participants which policy they would prefer if they did not know whether they are younger or older. Two studies (pre-registered; online samples; Study 1, N=414; replication, N=1,276) show that veil-of-ignorance reasoning shifts preferences toward saving younger patients. The effect on older participants is dramatic, reversing their opposition toward favoring the young. These findings provide concrete guidance to healthcare policymakers and frontline personnel charged with allocating scarce medical resources during times of crisis.
    4. Veil-of-Ignorance Reasoning Favors Allocating Resources to Younger Patients During the COVID-19 Crisis
    1. 2020-04-21

    2. SARS-CoV-2 is a novel coronavirus that results in a disease known as COVID-19. Given that no vaccine is currently available, or likely to be available in the near term, slowing the spread of the virus relies on radical behaviour change at a mass scale. Understanding the factors associated with behaviour change and support for different policy measures is therefore critical. Here, we present data collected in two waves in the UK and the USA (March 12th and 24th) exploring (i) subjective concern about the health impacts of COVID-19 for self, for family and for society; (ii) the factors associated with compliance with several preventive behavioural measures; and (iii) support for policy measures to reduce the spread of the virus. Concern about the societal impacts of COVID-19 varied along partisan lines, with political conservatives being relatively less concerned than political liberals about the impacts for society. People who reported being more concerned also reported adopting more preventive behaviours and supported a greater number of policies. Concern for self and family was a stronger predictor than societal concern for behaviour change and policy support, and most strongly predicted the increase in both these measures from March 12th to 24th. Political conservatives in both countries supported fewer policies, an effect that could be partially mediated by the negative effect of political conservatism on societal concern. These findings suggest concern for self and family outweighs concern for society in motivating behaviour change needed to curb the spread of COVID-19, and that concern for society varies along political lines.
    3. Factors Associated With Concern, Behaviour & Policy Support in Response to SARS-CoV-2
    1. 2020-04-21

    2. Fucci, E., Baquedano, C., Abdoun, O., Deroche, J., & Lutz, A. (2020, April 21). Validation of a set of stimuli to investigate the effect of attributional processes on social motivation in within-subject experiments. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/nbdj4

    3. Attribution of responsibility for the causes of suffering is one of the main factors that influence responses to individuals in distress. While the role of attributional processes on prosocial motivation has been widely investigated in social psychology, only few attempts have been made to characterize their behavioural and neurophysiological underpinnings. This is partly due to the lack of stimuli that can facilitate within-subject experimental designs. To overcome this problem, we created a set of stimuli consisting of videos depicting people in different situations of distress. Each video is paired with short stories that aim to manipulate the perceived degree of responsibility of the main character. To validate the stimuli, we investigated the effect of different context-video pairs on self-report measures of participants’ subjective experience. We found that different contexts preceding the same video can influence blame and responsibility judgments, affective responses and willingness to help. In a complementary analysis, we replicated previous findings on the influence of empathy and responsibility on willingness to help. However, we did not observe a negative correlation between responsibility and empathy as described in attribution theories. Finally, we observed a general increase in responses times when videos were paired with Responsible contexts. We provide interpretations of this finding that can relate attribution accounts to prominent theories in moral psychology. Overall, this study highlights the possibility of falsifying existing theories on attributional processes by implementing a set of stimuli that includes multiple scenarios and allow for the collection of third person measures in within-subject designs.
    4. Validation of a set of stimuli to investigate the effect of attributional processes on social motivation in within-subject experiments
    1. 2020-04-21

    2. Parents of children with Special Educational Needs and Disabilities in the UK (n=241) were asked to describe the impact of COVID-19 on their own mental health and that of their child. An inductive content analysis of the data was undertaken. Both parents and children appear to be experiencing loss, worry and changes in mood and behaviour as a result of the rapid social changes that have occurred. Some parents reported feeling overwhelmed and described the impact of child understanding and awareness. Finally, a minority of parents reported that COVID-19 has had little impact on mental health in their family, or has even led to improvements. Implications for how to support these families in the immediate future are discussed.
    3. How is COVID-19 affecting the mental health of children with Special Educational Needs and Disabilities and their families?
    1. 2020-04-20

    2. Mandel, D. R., Wallsten, T. S., & Budescu, D. (2020, April 20). Numerically-Bounded Language Schemes Are Unlikely to Communicate Uncertainty Effectively. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/9f6ev

    3. In a recent issue of Earth’s Future [vol. 7, pp. 1020-1026], S. C. Lewis et al. recommended a numerically-bounded language (NBL) scheme for communicating probabilistic information in extreme event attribution (EEA) studies. We provide a critique of NBL schemes in general and of Lewis et al.’s in particular, noting two key points. First, evidence from voluminous behavioral science research on the interpretation of linguistic probabilities indicates that NBL schemes are ineffective and may even be misleading or misunderstood. Second, where the motivation to implement such schemes nevertheless persists, the schemes should be developed through an evidence-based approach that seeks to optimize interpretational agreement between the scheme and users.
    4. Numerically-Bounded Language Schemes Are Unlikely to Communicate Uncertainty Effectively
    1. 2020-04-21

    2. Sibley, C. G., Greaves, L., Satherley, N., Wilson, M., Lee, C., Milojev, P., … Barlow, F. (2020, April 20). Short-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and a nationwide lockdown on institutional trust, attitudes to government, health and wellbeing. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/cx6qa

    3. The contagiousness and deadliness of COVID-19 have necessitated drastic social management to halt transmission. We investigate the immediate effects of a nationwide lockdown to contain the spread of COVID-19 by comparing matched samples of New Zealanders assessed before (Npre-lockdown = 1003) and in the two weeks following (Nlockdown = 1003) the lockdown. We examine two categories of outcomes: (1) institutional trust and attitudes towards the nation and government, and (2) health and wellbeing. Applying propensity score matching to approximate the conditions of a randomized controlled experiment, we find that people in the pandemic/lockdown group reported higher trust in science, politicians, and police, higher levels of patriotism, and higher rates of mental distress compared to people in the pre-lockdown pre-pandemic group. Results highlight social connectedness, resilience, and vulnerability in the face of adversity, and have applied implications for how we face this global challenge.
    4. Short-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and a nationwide lockdown on institutional trust, attitudes to government, health and wellbeing
    1. 2020-04-21

    2. Moyers, S. A., & Hagger, M. S. (2020, April 20). Physical activity and sense of coherence: A meta-analysis. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/d9e3k

    3. Based on the salutogenic model of health, we tested the size and variability of the relationship between physical activity participation and sense of coherence in a meta-analysis of the extant literature. Effects of candidate moderator variables on the relationship across studies were also tested. Database and manual literature searches identified 52 studies reporting 73 effect sizes between physical activity participation and sense of coherence. Three-level meta-analysis revealed a small non-zero averaged corrected correlation between physical activity and sense of coherence with significant heterogeneity. Sample age, sex, version of sense of coherence scale, physical activity measurement, study design, physical activity intensity, study quality, and time lag did not moderate the averaged physical activity-sense of coherence relationship. Studies adopting validated measures of physical activity behavior exhibited non-significant variability in the physical activity-sense of coherence relationship across studies compared to studies using bespoke physical activity measures, although the size of the effect did not different across moderator groups. Findings support the relationship between physical activity participation and sense of coherence and suggest physical activity acts as a generalized resistance resource in the salutogenic model. More research is needed testing the relationship using experimental or intervention designs and more precise measures to provide robust estimates.
    4. Physical activity and sense of coherence: A meta-analysis
    1. 2020-04-20

    2. Humans learn quickly which actions cause them harm. As social beings, we also need to learn to avoid actions that hurt others. It is currently unknown if humans are as good at learning to avoid others' harm (prosocial learning) as they are at learning to avoid self-harm (self-relevant learning). Moreover, it remains unclear how the neural mechanisms of prosocial learning differ from those of self-relevant learning. In this fMRI study, 96 male human participants learned to avoid painful stimuli either for themselves or for another individual. We found that participants performed more optimally when learning for the other than for themselves. Computational modeling revealed that this could be explained by an increased sensitivity to subjective values of choice alternatives during prosocial learning. Increased value-sensitivity was further associated with empathic traits. On the neural level, higher value-sensitivity during prosocial learning was associated with stronger engagement of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC) during valuation. Moreover, the VMPFC exhibited higher connectivity with the right temporoparietal junction during prosocial, compared to self-relevant, choices. Our results suggest that humans are particularly adept at learning to protect others from harm. This ability appears implemented by neural mechanisms overlapping with those supporting self-relevant learning, but with the additional recruitment of structures associated to the social brain. Our findings contrasts with recent proposals that humans are egocentrically biased when learning to obtain monetary rewards for self or others. Prosocial tendencies may thus trump the egocentric bias in learning when another person's physical integrity is at stake.
    3. When implicit prosociality trumps selfishness: the neural valuation system underpins more optimal choices when learning to avoid harm to others than to oneself
    1. 2020-04-20

    2. Jamieson, R. K., & Pexman, P. M. (2020, April 20). Moving Beyond 20 Questions: We (Still) Need Stronger Psychological Theory. https://doi.org/10.1037/cap0000223

    3. There has been growing awareness that many empirical demonstrations in psychology are difficult to reproduce: a problem called the replication crisis. To address the current replication crisis, Psychology has responded by re-examining its professional incentive systems, publication models, and research practices. Several reforms are now underway to correct for the problems, however skepticism is growing that psychology will escape the replication crisis by improvements in research practice alone. We address the theory crisis, the problems it poses for editors and reviewers, and we propose ways that reviewers and editors can contribute to addressing the replication crisis.
    4. Moving Beyond 20 Questions: We (Still) Need Stronger Psychological Theory
    1. 2020-04-20

    2. Problem definitions are defined here as one-sided in the case that while they might take into account one class of negative outcomes, such as those associated with the problem, at the same time they might ignore other classes of negative outcomes, such as those that may be encountered while implementing interventions that try to avoid the problem. An example is amputating all limbs with potentially cancerous moles on them to reduce the risk of mortality due to cancer as much as possible, without considering the increase in mortality due to the amputations. The global response to COVID-19 has been characterized by the availability of mathematical models for the potential mortality due to the spread of the pandemic. However in some cases the researchers guiding the responses of their respective nations with their mathematical models have explicitly pointed out that corresponding mathematical models of the impacts of economic shutdowns or other potential interventions on mortality have not been incorporated, and that there is a critical need to include such models. This paper generalizes this problem of one-sided problem definitions past the COVID-19 response to a wide variety of group problems where the pattern of one-sidedness applies, and explores how in current group decision-making systems one-sided problem definitions might consistently tend to be exploited in a way that is detrimental to collective well-being, as well as how a system of group decision-making meeting the requirements of a General Collective Intelligence solves the problem of one-sidedness to reliably maximize collective well-being.
    3. The Global Response to COVID-19 as an Example of a One-Sided Problem Definition in the Absence of General Collective Intelligence
    1. 2020-04-20

    2. Matheson, B., Bohon, C., & Lock, J. (2020, April 19). Virtual delivery of Family-based Treatment: Past lessons, present uses, and future directions. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/b3hcs

    3. The necessity to employ distance-base methods to deliver on-going eating disorder care due to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic represents a dramatic and urgent shift in treatment delivery. Yet, TeleHealth treatments for eating disorders in youth have not been adequately researched or rigorously tested. Based on clinical experience within our clinic and research programs, we aim to highlight the common challenges clinicians may encounter in providing Family-based Treatment (FBT) via TeleHealth for children and adolescents with Anorexia Nervosa and Bulimia Nervosa. We also discuss current research studies underway that seek to address virtual treatment for eating disorders in youth to illustrate how this type of research might lead to improved access, efficiency, and effectiveness of TeleHealth FBT.
    4. Virtual delivery of Family-based Treatment: Past lessons, present uses, and future directions
    1. 2020-04-18

    2. Os analistas de comportamento podem encontrar situações, como a atual pandemia COVID-19, que os impede de fornecer serviços ABA tradicionais pessoalmente aos clientes. Quando as condições impedem que os BCBAs e os técnicos de comportamento trabalhem diretamente com os clientes, as atividades digitais de instrução projetadas pelos BCBAs e entregues via computador ou tablet podem ser um substituto viável. Os aplicativos do Google, incluindo Google Slide, Google Forms e Google Classroom, podem ser particularmente úteis para criar e compartilhar atividades digitais de instrução. No artigo atual, fornecemos análises de tarefas para a utilização de funções básicas do Google Slide, desenvolvimento de atividades instrucionais independentes, desenvolvimento de atividades instrucionais apoiadas pelo cuidador e compartilhamento de atividades com clientes e cuidadores. Também fornecemos recomendações práticas para a implementação de atividades digitais de instrução com clientes e cuidadores.
    3. Mattson, Higbee, Aguilar, Nichols, Campbell, Nix, Reinert, Peck, and Lewis-BAP Criando e compartilhando atividades digitais de instrucao
    1. 2020-04-18

    2. King, E. K., Harrell, A. R., & Richling, S. (2020, April 18). Best Practices: Caregiver Training Resources Derived from Remote Behavioral Service Delivery within the Foster Care System. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/k56nq

    3. In the face of COVID-19 and necessary shifts in service delivery for behavior analysts, caregiver involvement in behavioral interventions will likely increase. Resources caregivers can consume and implement independently are critical in helping caregivers manage behavior in their homes. This paper includes antecedent and consequent behavior management strategies which correspond with provided written instructions and video tutorials designed for caregivers. The materials presented within this paper were originally produced and found effective in aiding caregivers managing behavior in the home within the Alabama foster care system. Although individuals within this system are at a higher risk of abuse and neglect and may engage in higher levels of aberrant behavior, we are distributing this document in hopes it will help behavior analysts working across a variety of populations as they navigate changes in service delivery and adopt resources for continued care and caregiver training.
    4. Best Practices: Caregiver Training Resources Derived from Remote Behavioral Service Delivery within the Foster Care System
    1. 2020-04-18

    2. Increasing nonresponse rates are a pressing issue for many longitudinal panel studies. Respondents frequently either refuse participation in single survey waves (temporary dropout) or discontinue participation altogether (permanent dropout). Contemporary statistical methods that are used to elucidate predictors of survey nonresponse are typically limited to small variable sets and ignore complex interaction patterns. The innovative approach of Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) is an elegant way to overcome these limitations because it does not specify a parametric form for the relationship between the outcome and its predictors. We present a BART event history analysis that allows identifying predictors for different types of nonresponse to anticipate response rates for upcoming survey waves. We apply our novel method to data from the German National Educational Panel study including N = 4,559 students in grade 5 that observed nonresponse rates of up to 36% across five waves. A cross-validation and comparison with logistic regression models with LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) penalization underline the advantages of the approach. Our results highlight the potential of Bayesian discrete time event modeling for the long-term projection of panel stability across multiple survey waves. Finally, potential applications of this approach for operational use in survey management are outlined.
    3. Analyzing nonresponse in longitudinal surveys using Bayesian additive regression trees: A nonparametric event history analysis
    1. 2020-04-18

    2. Leitner, S. (2020, April 18). On the dynamics emerging from pandemics and infodemics. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/nqru6

    3. This position paper discusses emerging behavioral, social, and economic dynamics related to the COVID-19 pandemic and puts particular emphasis on two emerging issues: First, delayed effects (or second strikes) of pandemics caused by dread risk effects are discussed whereby two factors which might influence the existence of such effects are identified, namely the accessibility of (mis-)information and the effects of policy decisions on adaptive behavior. Second, the issue of individual preparedness to hazardous events is discussed. As events such as the COVID-19 pandemic unfolds complex behavioral patterns which are hard to predict, sophisticated models which account for behavioral, social, and economic dynamics are required to assess the effectivity and efficiency of decision-making.
    4. On the dynamics emerging from pandemics and infodemics
    1. 2020-04-17

    2. BCBAs may encounter situations, such as the current COVID-19 pandemic, that preclude them from providing traditional in-person ABA services to clients. When conditions prevent BCBAs and behavior technicians from working directly with clients, digital instructional activities designed by BCBAs and delivered via a computer or tablet may be a viable substitute. Google applications, including Google Slides, Google Forms, and Google Classroom, can be particularly useful for creating and sharing digital instructional activities. In the current paper, we provide task analyses for utilizing basic Google Slides functions, developing independent instructional activities, developing caregiver-supported instructional activities, and sharing activities with clients and caregivers. We also provide practical recommendations for implementing digital instructional activities with clients and caregivers.
    3. Mattson, Higbee, Aguilar, Nichols, Campbell, Nix, Reinert, Peck, and Lewis-Digital Materials Tutorial BAP
    1. 2020-04-17

    2. Wang, K., & Miller, J. K., PhD. (2020, April 17). Can reappraisal increase global psychological resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic?. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/m4gpq

    3. The COVID-19 pandemic is increasing negative emotions and decreasing positive emotions globally. If left unchecked, these emotional changes may have a wide array of adverse outcomes. To enhance psychological resilience, this study in the Psychological Science Accelerator COVID-19 Rapid Project will examine the impact of reappraisal, a widely studied and highly effective form of emotion regulation. Participants from 55 countries (expected N = 25,448) will be randomly assigned to one of two reappraisal interventions (reconstrual and repurposing) or an active control condition. We predict that both reappraisal interventions will reduce negative emotional responses and increase positive emotional responses relative to the control condition. We further predict that reconstrual will decrease negative emotions more than repurposing, and that repurposing will increase positive emotions more than reconstrual. We hope results will inform efforts to create a scalable intervention for use around the world to build psychological resilience during the pandemic and beyond.
    4. Can reappraisal increase global psychological resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic?
    1. 2020-04-17

    2. Wolff, W., Martarelli, C., Schüler, J., & Bieleke, M. (2020, April 17). High boredom proneness and low trait self-control impair adherence to social distancing guidelines during the COVID-19 pandemic. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/jcf95

    3. Social distancing during the coronavirus-disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is crucial to reduce the spread of the virus. However, its effectiveness hinges on adherence by individuals who face substantial burdens from the required behavioral restrictions. Here, we investigate sources of individual variation in adhering to social distancing guidelines. In a high-powered study (N = 895), we tested direct and indirect effects of boredom and self-control on adherence. The results showed that both traits were important predictors of adherence but the underlying mechanisms differed. Specifically, individuals high in boredom perceived social distancing as more difficult, which in turn reduced their adherence (i.e., a mediated effect). In contrast, individuals high in self-control adhered more to the guidelines without perceiving them as more or less difficult; however, self-control moderated the effect of difficulty on adherence. Our results are immediately relevant to improve the efficacy of social distancing guidelines in the COVID-19 response.
    4. High boredom proneness and low trait self-control impair adherence to social distancing guidelines during the COVID-19 pandemic
    1. 2020-04-24

    2. Van Tongeren, D. R., DeWall, C. N., Chen, Z., Sibley, C. G., & Bulbulia, J. (2020, April 24). Van Tongeren et al. (2020) JPSP - Religious Residue. https://doi.org/10.1037/pspp0000288

    3. More than 1 billion people worldwide report no religious affiliation. These religious “nones” represent the world’s third largest religion-related identity group and are a diverse group, with some having previous religious identification and others never identifying as religious. We examined how three forms of religious identification—current, former, and never—influence a range of cognitions, emotions, and behavior. Three studies using nationally representative samples of religious Western (United States), secular Western (Netherlands, New Zealand) and Eastern (Hong Kong) cultures showed evidence of a religious residue effect: formerly religious individuals (i.e., religious “dones”) differed from never religious and currently religious individuals in cognitive, emotional, and behavioral processes. Study 1 (n=3,071) offered initial cross-cultural evidence, which was extended in a preregistered replication study that also included measures of charitable contribution (Study 2; n=1,626). Study 3 (N=31,604) found that individuals who deidentified were still relatively likely to engage in prosocial behavior (e.g., volunteering) after leaving religion. This research has broad implications for understanding changing global trends in religious identification and their consequences for psychology and behavior.
    4. Van Tongeren et al. (2020) JPSP - Religious Residue
    1. 2020-04-16

    2. The coronavirus outbreak manifested in Norway in March 2020. It was met a combination of mandatory changes (closing of public institutions) and recommended changes (hygiene behavior, physical distancing). It has been emphasized that health-protective behavior such as increased hygiene or physical distancing are able to slow the spread of infections and flatten the curve. Drawing on previous health-psychological studies during the outbreak of various pandemics, we investigated psychological and demographics factors predicting the adoption and engagement in health-protective behavior and changes in such behavior, attitudes, and emotions over time. We recruited a non-representative sample of Norwegians (n = 8676) during a 15-day period (March 12–26 2020) at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak in Norway. Employing both traditional methods and exploratory machine learning, we replicated earlier findings that engagement in health-protective behavior is associated with specific demographic characteristics. Further, we observed that increased media exposure, perceiving measures as effective, and perceiving the outbreak as serious positively predicted engagement in health-protective behavior. We also found indications that hygiene and physical distancing behaviors were predicted by somewhat different psychological and demographic factors. Over the sampling period, reported engagement in physical distancing increased, while experienced concern or fear declined. Contrary to previous studies, we found no or only small positive predictions by confidence in authorities, knowledge about the outbreak, and perceived individual risk, while all of those variables were rather high. These findings provide guidance for health communications or interventions targeting the adoption of health-protective behaviors in order to diminish the spread of COVID-19.
    3. Predictors of Health-Protective Behavior and Changes Over Time During the Outbreak of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Norway
    1. 2020-04-16

    2. Shook, N., Sevi, B., Lee, J., Fitzgerald, H. N., & Oosterhoff, B. (2020, April 16). Who’s Listening? Predictors of Concern about COVID-19 and Preventative Health Behaviors. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/c9rfg

    3. BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread rapidly across the globe. Based on recommendations from health organizations, many individuals have made significant changes to their daily lives to prevent the spread of the disease. OBJECTIVE/METHOD: This study sought to identify demographic and psychosocial factors associated with concern about COVID-19 and engagement in preventative health behaviors suggested to reduce the transmission of COVID-19 (social distancing, handwashing, cleaning/disinfecting, avoiding touching face, and wearing facemasks). From March 20 to 23, 2020, a US national sample (N=1019) completed an online survey. RESULTS: Recent illness, religiosity, germ aversion, and pathogen disgust sensitivity were the most consistent predictors of COVID-19 concern and preventative health behaviors. CONCLUSION: Findings have implications for the development of interventions intended to increase preventative health behaviors.
    4. Who’s Listening? Predictors of Concern about COVID-19 and Preventative Health Behaviors
    1. 2020-04-16

    2. Current computational models suggest that paranoia may be explained by stronger higher-order beliefs about others and increased sensitivity to environments. However, it is unclear whether this applies to social contexts, and whether it is specific to harmful intent attributions, the live expression of paranoia. We sought to fill this gap this by fitting a computational model to data (n = 1754) from a modified serial dictator game, to explore whether pre-existing paranoia could be accounted by specific alterations to cognitive parameters characterising harmful intent attributions. We constructed a ‘Bayesian brain’ model of others’ intent, which we fitted to harmful intent and self-interest attributions made over 18 trials, across three different partners. We found that pre-existing paranoia was associated with greater uncertainty about other’s actions. It moderated the relationship between learning rates and harmful intent attributions, making harmful intent attributions less reliant on prior interactions. Overall, the level of harmful intent attributions was inversely related to their precision, and importantly, the opposite was true for self-interest attributions. Our results explain how pre-existing paranoia may be the result of an increased need to attend to immediate experiences in determining intentional threat, at the expense of what is already known, and more broadly, they suggest that environments that induce greater probabilities of harmful intent attributions may also induce states of uncertainty, potentially as an adaptive mechanism to better detect threatening others. Importantly, we suggest that if paranoia were able to be explained exclusively by domain-general alterations we wouldn’t observe differential parameter estimates underlying harmful-intent and self-interest attributions.
    3. Reduction in social learning and policy uncertainty about intentional social threat underlies paranoia: evidence from modelling a modified serial dictator game.
    1. 2020-04-16

    2. In the article Do higher-class individuals feel more entitled? The role of system-justifying belief, Xu et al. (2019) argued that higher class individuals would feel more entitled when perceiving social hierarchies as fair and legitimate. These authors presented two studies - correlational and experimental - to support this hypothesis. Nevertheless, the experiment reported in Study 2 presents important limitations. An analysis of the data, made publicly available by the authors, suggests that randomization failed. Treating the data as correlational shows that the main hypothesis stated by Xu et al. (2019) is not supported. This does not invalidate the theoretical argument by itself, but it means that further research is necessary to properly contrast the hypotheses proposed by these authors.
    3. A Response to Do higher-class individuals feel more entitled? The role of system -justifying belief (Xu et al., 2019)