- May 2022
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Local file Local file
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scanned for solutions to long-standing problems in his reading,conversations, and everyday life. When he found one, he couldmake a connection that looked to others like a flash of unparalleledbrilliance
Feynman’s approach encouraged him to follow his interests wherever they might lead. He posed questions and constantly
Creating strong and clever connections between disparate areas of knowledge can appear to others to be a flash of genius, in part because they didn't have the prior knowledges nor did they put in the work of collecting, remembering, or juxtaposition.
This method may be one of the primary (only) underpinnings supporting the lone genius myth. This is particularly the case when the underlying ideas were not ones fully developed by the originator. As an example if Einstein had fully developed the ideas of space and time by himself and then put the two together as spacetime, then he's independently built two separate layers, but in reality, he's cleverly juxtaposed two broadly pre-existing ideas and combined them in an intriguing new framing to come up with something new. Because he did this a few times over his life, he's viewed as an even bigger genius, but when we think about what he's done and how, is it really genius or simply an underlying method that may have shaken out anyway by means of statistical thermodynamics of people thinking, reading, communicating, and writing?
Are there other techniques that also masquerade as genius like this, or is this one of the few/only?
Link this to Feynman's mention that his writing is the actual thinking that appears on the pages of his notes. "It's the actual thinking."
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www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com
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Her opposition to police and prison starts with the experiences of marginalized people, who have to deal with police and carceral violence every day.
Although I know this from a first hand experience and experience of family members, I think statistics on incarcerated people would benefit the article.
If someone who has never researched this topic reads this, they wouldn't truly understand the gap between marginalized people incarcerated and those not.
Another good statistic that could be used is the recent amount of people that have been released early or with certain crimes being decrimalized and what groups those are.
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Black people, 32 percent of the population in Chicago, account for 72 percent of police stops, according to ACLU of Illinois data.
I believe this is a great use of statistics in an argument like this. It instantly responds to the statement said before and shows how even though black people take up such a small percent of Chicago, they are the most stopped.
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- Apr 2022
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Kai Kupferschmidt. (2021, December 1). @DirkBrockmann But these kinds of models do help put into context what it means when certain countries do or do not find the the variant. You can find a full explanation and a break-down of import risk in Europe by airport (and the people who did the work) here: Https://covid-19-mobility.org/reports/importrisk_omicron/ https://t.co/JXsYdmTnNP [Tweet]. @kakape. https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1466109304423993348
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Pouria Hadjibagheri [@Pouriaaa]. (2021, July 14). The state of the UK’s statistical system 2020/21 by @StatsRegulation Thank you! 🎊😀🎉 See the report: Https://osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/publication/the-state-of-the-uks-statistical-system-2020-21/pages/8/ https://t.co/dEBmVz3oTm [Tweet]. Twitter. https://twitter.com/Pouriaaa/status/1415371346775838725
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en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
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Hoplophilia
word of the day
Seen in a meme used to describe Marjorie Taylor Greene who is testifying in a lawsuit against her today.
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Jess Rohmann. (2021, March 16). New @PEI_Germany report provides much needed clarity to the #AstraZeneca ‘pause’ in Germany. Not yet available in English. I will try to summarize. /Thread https://t.co/Ev9p2TOdfD [Tweet]. @JLRohmann. https://twitter.com/JLRohmann/status/1371833745272156163
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- Mar 2022
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en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
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In 1925, Ronald Fisher advanced the idea of statistical hypothesis testing, which he called "tests of significance", in his publication Statistical Methods for Research Workers.[28][29][30] Fisher suggested a probability of one in twenty (0.05) as a convenient cutoff level to reject the null hypothesis.[31] In a 1933 paper, Jerzy Neyman and Egon Pearson called this cutoff the significance level, which they named α {\displaystyle \alpha } . They recommended that α {\displaystyle \alpha } be set ahead of time, prior to any data collection.[31][32] Despite his initial suggestion of 0.05 as a significance level, Fisher did not intend this cutoff value to be fixed. In his 1956 publication Statistical Methods and Scientific Inference, he recommended that significance levels be set according to specific circumstances.[31]
The lofty p=0.5 is utter bullshit. It was just an arbitrary, made-up value with no real evidence behind it.
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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only 2.5 sigma
That's 99.38% chance of being correct, yet that's considered "weak". Would that we could do that in medicine or the social sciences.
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- Feb 2022
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twitter.com twitter.com
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PaedsHaemDoc. (2022, January 9). Had the misfortune (via @fatemperor) to come across Dr Paul Alexander -apparently credentialed yet in single blog post demonstrates perfectly either a disconnect from rational thought or deliberate misinformation spreading of the #masspsychosis of the anti-Vax crew let’s examine https://t.co/Ctd49cb1qK [Tweet]. @dr_barrett. https://twitter.com/dr_barrett/status/1479986071832248322
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- Jan 2022
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hackmd.io hackmd.io
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Argument quality and fallacies. (n.d.). HackMD. Retrieved January 17, 2022, from https://hackmd.io/@scibehC19vax/argumentquality
Tags
- vaccination debate
- bias
- statistical fallacies
- self-contradiction
- norms
- vaccine hesitancy
- source reliability
- factual error
- slippery slope
- ignorance
- fallacies
- arguments
- claim
- argument quality
- Simpson's paradox
- evidence
- vaccine data
- inconsistency
- standards
- ad hominem argument
- is:article
- lang:en
- causation
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- Nov 2021
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ncase.me ncase.me
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An interesting interactive model for segregation here. See also https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-12-10/an-immersive-game-shows-how-easily-segregation-arises-and-how-we-might-fix-it for press coverage.
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- Sep 2021
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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The difficulties of estimating long Covid | David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters | The Guardian. (n.d.). Retrieved September 28, 2021, from https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/commentisfree/2021/sep/26/the-difficulties-of-estimating-long-covid
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www.dynare.org www.dynare.orgDynare1
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- Aug 2021
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datainnovation.org datainnovation.org
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cgdev.org cgdev.org
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Center For Global Development. “Three New Estimates of India’s All-Cause Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Pandemic.” Accessed August 11, 2021. https://cgdev.org/publication/three-new-estimates-indias-all-cause-excess-mortality-during-covid-19-pandemic.
Tags
- death
- COVID-19
- India
- civil registration
- pandemic
- authoritative estimate
- attendant accountability
- statistical confidence
- data source
- Coronavirus
- is:article
- Consumer Pyramid Household Survey
- lang:en
- age-specific infection fatality rates
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cgdev.org/publication/three-new-estimates-indias-all-cause-excess-mortality-during-covid-19-pandemic -
- May 2021
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www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
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Università degli Studi dell’Insubria. (2021, May 14). Covid-19 Vaccine—The musical. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glueeURebDU
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Annotators
URL
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journals.sagepub.com journals.sagepub.com
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Dunn, E. W., Chen, L., Proulx, J. D. E., Ehrlinger, J., & Savalei, V. (2021). Can Researchers’ Personal Characteristics Shape Their Statistical Inferences? Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 47(6), 969–984. https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167220950522
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royalsocietypublishing.org royalsocietypublishing.org
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Darren Dahly on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved 1 May 2021, from https://twitter.com/statsepi/status/1385127211699691520
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci. (2020, November 26). The critical question is whether the summary ‘study shows face masks have no significant effect’ is “misinformation”. First off, the title is ambiguous. It could be paraphrased in two different ways: A) is telegraphic version of a longer sentence "study showed that face.. [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1332008460825878529
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academic.oup.com academic.oup.com
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Hernán, M. A., Clayton, D., & Keiding, N. (2011). The Simpson’s paradox unraveled. International Journal of Epidemiology, 40(3), 780–785. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyr041
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- Apr 2021
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www.imperial.ac.uk www.imperial.ac.uk
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More transmissible and evasive SARS-CoV-2 variant growing rapidly in Brazil | Imperial News | Imperial College London. (n.d.). Imperial News. Retrieved 18 April 2021, from https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/216053/more-transmissible-evasive-sarscov2-variant-growing/
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci. ‘RT @kareem_carr: PSA: When You Say "there Were 6 Cases in 6.8 Million Doses Therefore We Can Expect about 1 in a Million Incidents Going Fo…’. Tweet. @SciBeh (blog), 15 April 2021. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1382620714633732097.
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- Mar 2021
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Lakens, D., Tunç, D. U., & Tunç, M. N. (2021). There is no generalizability crisis. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/tm8jy
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danallosso.substack.com danallosso.substack.com
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There's an interesting suggestion associated with this, that periodic fasting causes autophagy, which Taleb claims is an evolutionary process by which the weaker proteins are broken down first. If this is true, then always having a full stomach is another way of subsidizing the unfit and weakening the organism.
This will depend on a very specific and narrow definition of fitness--perhaps one from a very individualistic and libertarian perspective.
There is fitness at the level of the gene, the organ, the individual, and the group, and even possibly larger groupings above that.
What if, by starving out and leaving "uneducated" people like Srinivasa Ramanujan, for example, who surely was marginalized for his time, society is left without them? While on an individual level Ramanujan may have been less fit on some levels as G.H. Hardy and may have otherwise dwindled and disappeared, Hardy adopted him and made both mathematicians better while also making dramatic strides for mankind.
From a statistical mechanics perspective, within some reasonable limits, we should be focusing on improving ourselves as well as the larger group(s) because the end results for humanity and life in general may be dramatically improved. (Though what we mean by improved here may be called into question from a definitional perspective.)
Compare this with [Malcolm Gladwell]]'s argument in My Little Hundred Million.
On a nationalistic level within human politics, Republicans should be less reticent to help out marginalized Americans because it may be from this pool of potential that we may find life saving improvements or even protection from other polities (ie, in our competition or threats from countries like China, Iran, North Korea). Consider how different things may have been had the U.S. not taken in Jewish or other foreign nationals like Albert Einstein, John von Neumann, etc. in the early to mid-1900s.? Now consider, which life changing geniuses we may be preventing reaching their potential by our current immigration policies? our current educational policies?
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Cailin O’Connor. (2020, November 10). Using agent-based methods we show how even modest contact between disciplines can allow better methods to spread. This is because outsiders can award academic credit to those using good methods, leading to their uptake. 5 [Tweet]. @cailinmeister. https://twitter.com/cailinmeister/status/1326229762533060608
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Hyland, P., Vallières, F., Shevlin, M., Bentall, R. P., McKay, R., Hartman, T. K., McBride, O., & Murphy, J. (2021). Resistance to COVID-19 vaccination has increased in Ireland and the UK during the pandemic. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/ry6n4
Tags
- COVID-19
- resistance
- vaccine hesitance
- UK
- cross-sectional data
- statistics
- attitudes
- vaccine
- China
- longitudinal
- statistical analysis
- vaccine resistance
- communication strategies
- ireland
- social behavior
- second wave
- pandemic
- officials
- is:preprint
- vaccination
- Russia
- lang:en
- public health
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci on Twitter: ‘RT @PsyArXivBot: Resistance to COVID-19 vaccination has increased in Ireland and the UK during the pandemic https://t.co/AgKErDr7Yj’ / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved 2 March 2021, from https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1366707710151053312
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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Haug, N., Geyrhofer, L., Londei, A., Dervic, E., Desvars-Larrive, A., Loreto, V., Pinior, B., Thurner, S., & Klimek, P. (2020). Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions. Nature Human Behaviour, 4(12), 1303–1312. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-01009-0
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- Feb 2021
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Altman, D. G., & Bland, J. M. (1995). Statistics notes: Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. BMJ, 311(7003), 485. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.311.7003.485
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Thereare also a few books on statistical thermodynamics that use infor-mation theory such as those by Jaynes, Katz, and Tribus.
Books on statistical thermodynamics that use information theory.
Which textbook of Jaynes is he referring to?
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Levine, R. D. and Tribus, M (eds) (1979),The Maximum Entropy Principle,MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
Book on statistical thermodynamics that use information theory, mentioned in Chapter 1.
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Katz, A. (1967),Principles of Statistical Mechanics: The Informational TheoryApproach,W.H.Freeman,London.
Books on statistical thermodynamics that use information theory.
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jamanetwork.com jamanetwork.com
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Mori, Makoto, Harlan M. Krumholz, and Heather G. Allore. ‘Using Latent Class Analysis to Identify Hidden Clinical Phenotypes’. JAMA 324, no. 7 (18 August 2020): 700–701. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.2278.
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blogs.lse.ac.uk blogs.lse.ac.uk
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Communicating statistics through the media in the time of COVID-19. (2021, February 3). Impact of Social Sciences. https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/impactofsocialsciences/2021/02/03/communicating-statistics-through-the-media-in-the-time-of-covid-19/
Tags
- COVID-19
- statistical jargon
- misinformation
- is:webpage
- LSE
- statistical research
- ITV news
- journalist
- media
- lang:en
- interviews
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URL
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- Jan 2021
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discourse.computational-humanities-research.org discourse.computational-humanities-research.org
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some interesting readings mentioned here on the topic of statistical validation/evaluation in CompHum research.
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- Oct 2020
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Open Science Community Tilburg on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved October 28, 2020, from https://twitter.com/OpenTilburg/status/1318518990000607234
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inference-review.com inference-review.com
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Come on, harvest me! I’ll just change your world some more.
I wonder a bit here about the idea of what in a meme might have a substrate type of effect to decrease the overall energy of the process to help it take off.
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appliednetsci.springeropen.com appliednetsci.springeropen.com
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Problems of disorganized complexity are problems that can be described using averages and distributions, and that do not depend on the identity of the elements involved in a system, or their precise patterns of interactions. A classic example of a problem of disorganized complexity is the statistical mechanics of Ludwig Boltzmann, James-Clerk Maxwell, and Willard Gibbs, which focuses on the properties of gases.
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Ghavasieh, A., Nicolini, C., & De Domenico, M. (2020). Statistical physics of complex information dynamics. ArXiv:2010.04014 [Cond-Mat, Physics:Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2010.04014
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- Aug 2020
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osf.io osf.io
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Landgrave, M. (2020). How Do Legislators Value Constituent’s (Statistical) Lives? COVID-19, Partisanship, and Value of a Statistical Life Analysis. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/n93w2
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twitter.com twitter.com
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mike johansen on Twitter: “This paper has got some MAJOR problems. I don’t know why this paper was accepted for publication (nor submitted for publication to be frank). Let’s dive in. 1/” / Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved July 11, 2020, from https://twitter.com/mikejohansenmd/status/1280728008643555328
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jamanetwork.com jamanetwork.com
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Khan MS, Fonarow GC, Friede T, et al. Application of the Reverse Fragility Index to Statistically Nonsignificant Randomized Clinical Trial Results. JAMA Netw Open. 2020;3(8):e2012469. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.12469
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www.nber.org www.nber.org
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Burke, Marshall, Anne Driscoll, Jenny Xue, Sam Heft-Neal, Jennifer Burney, and Michael Wara. ‘The Changing Risk and Burden of Wildfire in the US’. Working Paper. Working Paper Series. National Bureau of Economic Research, June 2020. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27423.
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- Jul 2020
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news.sky.com news.sky.com
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Coronavirus: The inside story of how UK’s “chaotic” testing regime “broke all the rules.” (n.d.). Sky News. Retrieved July 17, 2020, from https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-the-inside-story-of-how-uks-chaotic-testing-regime-broke-all-the-rules-12022566
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osf.io osf.io
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Arif, M., & Sengupta, S. (2020). Nexus between population density and COVID-19 pandemic in the south Indian states: A geo-statistical approach [Preprint]. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/e8nda
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projecteuclid.org projecteuclid.org
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unless the model is embedded in a suitable structure thatpermits extrapolation, no useful inference is possible, either Bayesian or non-Bayesian.
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Du, H., Jiang, G., & Ke, Z. (2020). A Bootstrap Based Between-Study Heterogeneity Test in Meta-Analysis [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/de4g9
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- Jun 2020
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rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
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Mathur, M. B., & VanderWeele, T. J. (2020). New statistical metrics for multisite replication projects. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), 183(3), 1145–1166. https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12572
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Zhang, L., & Peixoto, T. P. (2020). Statistical inference of assortative community structures. ArXiv:2006.14493 [Cond-Mat, Physics:Physics, Stat]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2006.14493
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www.lshtm.ac.uk www.lshtm.ac.uk
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Causal inference isn’t what you think it is. (n.d.). LSHTM. Retrieved June 26, 2020, from https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/events/causal-inference-isnt-what-you-think-it
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Cheung, M. W.-L. (2020). Meta-Analytic Structural Equation Modeling [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/epsqt
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Zelner, J., Riou, J., Etzioni, R., & Gelman, A. (2020). Accounting for Uncertainty During a Pandemic. ArXiv:2006.08745 [Physics, q-Bio, Stat]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2006.08745
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Raleigh, V. S. (2020). Tackling UK’s mortality problem: Covid-19 and other causes. BMJ, 369. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m2295
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Han, H., & Dawson, K. J. (2020). JASP (Software) [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/67dcb
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- May 2020
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Jones, A. L., Schild, C., Satchell, L., & Jaeger, B. (2020, May 21). Misunderstanding COVID-19 and digit ratio: Methodological and statistical issues in Manning and Fink (2020). https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/ht74e
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Pinto, S. F., & Ferreira, R. S. (2020). Analyzing course programmes using complex networks. ArXiv:2005.00906 [Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2005.00906
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- Mar 2020
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zettelkasten.de zettelkasten.de
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Creativity is just connecting things. When you ask creative people how they did something, they feel a little guilty because they didn’t really do it, they just saw something. It seemed obvious to them after a while. —Steve Jobs (via lifehacker and Zettel no. 201308301352)
in other words, it's just statistical thermodynamics. Eventually small pieces will float by each other and stick together in new and hopefully interesting ways. The more particles you've got and the more you can potentially connect or link things, the better off you'll be.
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- Jan 2020
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www.digitalocean.com www.digitalocean.com
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First sighting of Jupyter Notebook (that I recall).
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- Dec 2019
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colinwalker.blog colinwalker.blog
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Many people luck out like me, accidentally. We recognize what particular path to mastery we’re on, long after we actually get on it.
Far too many people luck out this way and we all perceive them as magically talented when in reality, they're no better than we, they just had better circumstances or were in the right place at the right time.
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- Nov 2018
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www.zachwhalen.net www.zachwhalen.net
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One instructor's use of Slack, comparing and contrasting other LMS (but he used Canvas); good basic breakdown of the conversational tools and samples of how hey can be used; This is a great primer of Slack's use in the classroom (5/5)
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- Oct 2018
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www.projectinfolit.org www.projectinfolit.org
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telephone interviews with 37 participants
I have to wonder at telephone samples of this age group given the propensity of youth to not communicate via voice phone.
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- May 2018
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hypothes.is hypothes.is
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hi there check this link on SAS training and tutorial with the detailed explanation on the Base Training of that along with real time Examples and Projects practices
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- Nov 2017
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www.sciencedirect.com www.sciencedirect.com
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pairwise overlaps using Fisher’s test and mutual exclusion (Leiserson et al., 2016xA weighted exact test for mutually exclusive mutations in cancer. Leiserson, M.D.M., Reyna, M.A., and Raphael, B.J. Bioinformatics. 2016; 32: i736–i745Crossref | PubMed | Scopus (4)See all ReferencesLeiserson et al., 2016)
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- Sep 2017
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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A genome-wide analysis of putative functional and exonic variation associated with extremely high intelligence
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