- Jul 2021
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Lacassagne, D., Béna, J., & Corneille, O. (2021). Is Earth a Perfect Square? Repetition Increases the Perceived Truth of Highly Implausible Statements. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/fce8z
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2021-06-28
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10.31234/osf.io/fce8z
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A single exposure to statements is typically enough to increase their perceived truth. This Truth-by-Repetition (TBR) effect has long been assumed to occur only with statements whose truth value is unknown to participants. Contrary to this hypothesis, recent research found a TBR effect with statements known to be false. Of note, a recent model even posits that repetition could increase the perceived truth of highly implausible statements. As for now, however, no empirical evidence has reported a TBR effect for highly implausible statements. Here, we reasoned that one may be found provided a sensitive truth measure is used and statements are repeated more than just once. In a preregistered experiment, participants judged the truth of highly implausible statements on a 100-point scale, and these statements were either new to them or had been presented five times before the judgment task. We observed a TBR effect: truth judgments were higher for repeated statements than for new ones - even if all statements were still judged as false. Exploratory analyses additionally suggest that all participants were not equally prone to this TBR effect: about half the participants showed no or even a reverse effect. Overall, the results provide direct empirical evidence to the claim that repetition can increase perceived truth even for highly implausible statements, although not equally so for all participants and not to the point of making the statements look true.
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Is Earth a Perfect Square? Repetition Increases the Perceived Truth of Highly Implausible Statements
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- Jun 2021
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www.henryford.com www.henryford.com
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Here’s Where That COVID-19 Vaccine Infertility Myth Came From—And Why It Is Not True. (n.d.). Retrieved June 18, 2021, from https://www.henryford.com/blog/2021/04/fertility-rumor-covid-vaccine
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2021-04-23
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Last December, a German epidemiologist said the COVID-19 vaccines might make women’s bodies reject a protein that’s connected to placenta, therefore making women infertile. He thought this because the genetic code of the placenta protein, called syncytin-1, shares a hint of similarity with the genetic code of the spike protein in COVID-19. If the vaccines caused our bodies to make antibodies to protect us from COVID-19, he thought, they could also make antibodies to reject the placenta. This, however, was a theoretical risk that was completely disproven in the clinical trials and continues to be disproven in real time as more women of child-bearing age become fully vaccinated. “It’s inaccurate to say that COVID-19’s spike protein and this placenta protein share a similar genetic code,” says D’Angela Pitts, M.D., a maternal fetal medicine specialist with Henry Ford Health System. “The proteins are not similar enough to cause placenta to not attach to an embryo.”
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Here’s Where That COVID-19 Vaccine Infertility Myth Came From—And Why It Is Not True
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twitter.com twitter.com
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2021-06-07
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Here’s Where That COVID-19 Vaccine Infertility Myth Came From—And Why It Is Not True https://henryford.com/blog/2021/04/fertility-rumor-covid-vaccine… The evidence firmly shows that the COVID-19 vaccines don't cause infertility.
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twitter.com twitter.com
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2021-06-09
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The 2 clusters, opposite ends of the V-spectrum 1 is delta ready The other is highly vulnerable
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Despite increasing incentives, the US vaccination campaign is really struggling. Notably, the top 5 states are approaching 60% total population fully vaccinated which should provide strong protection vs the delta variant. A different story for the bottom 5 states @OurWorldInData
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- May 2021
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www.newscientist.com www.newscientist.com
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Rasolt, D. H. (n.d.). Mistrust fuels covid-19 vaccine doubts in Colombia’s Indigenous groups. New Scientist. Retrieved May 17, 2021, from https://www.newscientist.com/article/2272195-mistrust-fuels-covid-19-vaccine-doubts-in-colombias-indigenous-groups/
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As covid-19 vaccines begin to arrive in the Andean highlands in Colombia, Maria Pito, a leader of the Nasa people, is reluctant to receive one. “As a nurse, I will be required by the clinic where I work to be vaccinated but if I had the choice, I would not take it and would continue to rely on traditional medicine,” she says. “I and many others don’t trust this untransparent government.”
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2021-03-24
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Mistrust fuels covid-19 vaccine doubts in Colombia's Indigenous groups
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Politicians must dial down the rhetoric over COVID vaccines. (2021). Nature, 591(7851), 502–502. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-00769-7
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10.1038/d41586-021-00769-7
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2021-03-25
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Vaccine confidence will be the casualty of Europe’s war of words over the AstraZeneca–Oxford vaccine.
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Politicians must dial down the rhetoric over COVID vaccines
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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10.1038/d41586-020-03189-1
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Blastland, M., Freeman, A. L. J., Linden, S. van der, Marteau, T. M., & Spiegelhalter, D. (2020). Five rules for evidence communication. Nature, 587(7834), 362–364. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-03189-1
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2020-11-18
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Avoid unwarranted certainty, neat narratives and partisan presentation; strive to inform, not persuade.
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Five rules for evidence communication
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Chen, I.-H., Ahorsu, D. K., Ko, N.-Y., Yen, C.-F., Lin, C.-Y., Griffiths, M., & Pakpour, A. (2021). The development and validation of the Motors of COVID-19 Vaccination Acceptance Scale: Psychometric evaluation among mainland Chinese university students. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/abfp6
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2021-03-02
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10.31234/osf.io/abfp6
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Background: COVID-19 continues to ravage the world with economies and life significantly and negatively affected. Fortunately, there has been significant progress in the production of vaccines to stem the infection. However, with controversies and myths surrounding vaccinations, it is timely to examine individuals’ willingness to vaccinate. The present study developed and validated the Motors of COVID-19 Vaccination Acceptance Scale (MoVac-COVID19S) and assessed the acceptance of COVID-19 vaccination utilizing the cognitive model of empowerment (CME). Methods: A total of 3145 university students (mean age=20.80 years; SD=2.09) were recruited for the present study between January 5 and 16, 2021. Two MoVac-COVID19S scales (9-item and 12-item) were adapted from the MoVac-Flu Scale, an instrument developed using CME. Psychometric tests were conducted to ascertain reliability and validity properties. Results: The findings indicated that the MoVac-COVID19S had high internal consistency in both the 9-item version (ω=0.921) and 12-item version (ω=0.898). The factor structure of the MoVac-COVID19S (9-item and 12-item versions) corresponded well with CME theory. All the fit indices were satisfactory (CFI=0.984, TLI=0.971, RMSEA=0.088, SRMR=0.058) but the 9-item MoVac-COVID had better fit indices than the 12-item MoVac-COVID due to the negative wording effects existing in the 12-item MoVac-COVID19S. The scale had satisfactory known-group validity in both 9-item and 12-item versions. Conclusions: The MoVac-COVID19S has promising psychometric properties based on internal consistency, factor structure, and known-group validity.
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The development and validation of the Motors of COVID-19 Vaccination Acceptance Scale: Psychometric evaluation among mainland Chinese university students
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Daly, M., & Robinson, E. (2021). Willingness to vaccinate against COVID-19 in the US: Representative longitudinal evidence from April–October 2020. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/r28yh
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2021-02-15
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10.31234/osf.io/r28yh
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Introduction: Vaccines against COVID-19 have been developed in unprecedented time. However, the effectiveness of any vaccine is dictated by the proportion of the population willing to be vaccinated. In this observational population-based study we examined intentions to be vaccinated against COVID-19 throughout the pandemic. Methods: In November, 2020 we analyzed longitudinal data from a nationally representative sample of 7,547 US adults enrolled in the Understanding America Study (UAS) using multinomial logistic regresion. Participants reporting being willing, undecided and unwilling to get vaccinated against coronavirus across 13 assessments conducted from April-October, 2020. Public attitudes to vaccination against the coronavirus were also assessed on a four-point Likert scale. Results: Willingness to vaccinate declined from 71% in April to 53.6% in October. This was explained by an increase in the percentage of participants undecided about vaccinating (from 10.5% to 14.4%) and the portion of the sample unwilling to vaccinate (from 18.5% to 32%). The population subgroups most likely to be undecided/unwilling to vaccinate were those without a degree (undecided: RRR=2.47, 95% CI: 2.04-3.00; unwilling: RRR=1.92, 95% CI:1.67-2.20), Black participants (undecided: RRR=2.18, 95% CI: 1.73-2.74; unwilling: RRR=1.98, 95% CI:1.63-2.42), and females (undecided: RRR=1.41, 95% CI:1.20-1.65; unwilling: RRR=1.29, 95% CI:1.14-1.46). Participants who were older or were on higher incomes were least likely to be undecided or unwilling to vaccinate. Concerns about potential side effects of a vaccine were common. Conclusions: Intentions to be vaccinated against coronavirus have declined rapidly during the pandemic and close to half of Americans are undecided or unwilling to be vaccinated.
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Willingness to vaccinate against COVID-19 in the US: Representative longitudinal evidence from April–October 2020
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Jiang, Y., Zilioli, S., Balzarini, R. N., Zoppolat, G., & Slatcher, R. B. (2021). Education, Financial Stress, and Trajectory of Mental Health During the COVID-19 Pandemic. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/tvry4
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2021-05-03
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10.31234/osf.io/tvry4
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Socioeconomic disparities in mental health have been reported during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, few studies have examined the mechanisms through which such disparities in mental health occurred. This pre-registered study aimed to examine socioeconomic disparities, as indexed by education levels, in the trajectory of mental health at the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic and whether financial stress associated with the pandemic mediated socioeconomic disparities in mental health. Data were drawn from the Love in the Time of COVID project, of which we included four waves of data (N = 2,204) collected between March 27th and June 21st, 2020. Education was assessed at baseline, and mental health outcomes (i.e., eudaimonic well-being, positive affect, negative affect, depressive and anxious symptoms) and financial stress associated with the COVID-19 pandemic were assessed at each wave. Results indicated that there were educational disparities in eudaimonic well-being, negative affect, and depressive and anxiety symptoms at baseline, with those with lower education levels reporting poorer mental health. However, education did not amplify disparities in mental health outcomes over time, showing no associations with the rates of change in mental health outcomes. Financial stress mediated the associations between education and eudaimonic well-being, negative affect, and depressive and anxious symptoms at baseline, and there were no temporal variations in the mediation effects of financial stress. These results highlight persistent educational disparities in mental health at the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, and such educational disparities may be partially explained by financial stress associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Education, Financial Stress, and Trajectory of Mental Health During the COVID-19 Pandemic
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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Kreier, F. (2021). ‘Unprecedented achievement’: Who received the first billion COVID vaccinations? Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-01136-2
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2021-04-29
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10.1038/d41586-021-01136-2
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It took just four months to reach this global milestone, and hitting to the two-billion mark could happen even faster, say scientists.
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‘Unprecedented achievement’: who received the first billion COVID vaccinations?
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www.newscientist.com www.newscientist.com
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Lu, D. (n.d.). Covid-19 lockdown has left young children vulnerable to some illnesses. New Scientist. Retrieved May 15, 2021, from https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg25033323-600-covid-19-lockdown-has-left-young-children-vulnerable-to-some-illnesses/
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2021-04-28
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THE coronavirus pandemic has left children vulnerable to other infections, in part due to reduced interactions as a result of lockdowns and social distancing.
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www.newscientist.com www.newscientist.com
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India’s crisis should be a warning against covid-19 complacency. (n.d.). New Scientist. Retrieved May 15, 2021, from https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg25033323-400-indias-crisis-should-be-a-warning-against-covid-19-complacency/
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2021-04-28
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THE covid-19 situation in India is terrible and is likely to get worse. The country has set one new record after another for the most daily coronavirus cases reported in any country. Just as the world was hoping the worst of the pandemic was over, we are seeing its biggest outbreak.
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India's crisis should be a warning against covid-19 complacency
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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One billion COVID vaccines, psychedelic sensor and COVID transmission halved. (2021). Nature, 593(7857), 13–13. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-01141-5
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2021-05-05
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10.1038/d41586-021-01141-5
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The world has reached the milestone of administering one billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines, just four months after the World Health Organization (WHO) approved the first vaccine for emergency use, and roll-outs began in countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom. The speed at which they have been administered is remarkable, but unequal distribution of the vaccinations highlights global disparities, say researchers (see ‘Divided by doses’).
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One billion COVID vaccines, psychedelic sensor and COVID transmission halved
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www.scientificamerican.com www.scientificamerican.com
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2021-05
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10.1038/scientificamerican0521-24
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Using home monitoring and other efficiencies instead of dragging people into hospitals could improve clinical trials after the pandemic
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COVID Has Pushed Medical Research into Remote Trials, Benefiting Patients and Scientists
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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Burton-Chellew, M. N., & West, S. A. (2021). Payoff-based learning best explains the rate of decline in cooperation across 237 public-goods games. Nature Human Behaviour, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01107-7
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2021-05-03
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10.1038/s41562-021-01107-7
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What motivates human behaviour in social dilemmas? The results of public goods games are commonly interpreted as showing that humans are altruistically motivated to benefit others. However, there is a competing ‘confused learners’ hypothesis: that individuals start the game either uncertain or mistaken (confused) and then learn from experience how to improve their payoff (payoff-based learning). Here we (1) show that these competing hypotheses can be differentiated by how they predict contributions should decline over time; and (2) use metadata from 237 published public goods games to test between these competing hypotheses. We found, as predicted by the confused learners hypothesis, that contributions declined faster when individuals had more influence over their own payoffs. This predicted relationship arises because more influence leads to a greater correlation between contributions and payoffs, facilitating learning. Our results suggest that humans, in general, are not altruistically motivated to benefit others but instead learn to help themselves.
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Payoff-based learning best explains the rate of decline in cooperation across 237 public-goods games
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Braud, M., Gaboriaud, A., Ferry, T., Mardi, W. E., Silva, L. D., Lemouzy, M., Guttierrez, J., Petit, S., Szabelska, A., & IJzerman, H. (2021). COVID-19-related conspiracy beliefs and their relationship with perceived stress and pre-existing conspiracy beliefs in a Prolific Academic sample: A replication and extension of Georgiou et al. (2020). PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/t62s7
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2021-05-01
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10.31234/osf.io/t62s7
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The authors conducted a close replication of a study by Georgiou et al (2020), who found amongst 660 (reported in abstract) or 640 (reported in participant section) participants that 1) Covid-19 related conspiracy theory beliefs were strongly related to broader conspiracy theory beliefs, that 2) Covid-19 related conspiracy beliefs were higher in those with lower levels of education, and that 3) Covid-19 related conspiracy beliefs were positively (although weakly) correlated with more negative attitudes towards different individual items measuring the government’s response. Finally, they find that 4) Covid-19 beliefs were unrelated to self-reported stress. In a pre-registered replication and extension in a study sufficiently well-powered to detect f2 = 0.05, at an alpha level of .05, with an a priori power of .95, and with 5 Predictors in a multiple regression analysis, we do not find the same results. First, we find that education level is unrelated to Covid-19 related conspiracy beliefs, that stress is related to Covid-19 related conspiracy beliefs, but that the government’s response is indeed related to Covid-19 related conspiracy beliefs. We point out measurement problems in measuring conspiracy beliefs, extend the study through supervised machine learning by finding that attachment avoidance and anxiety are important predictors of conspiracy beliefs (Covid-19-related and beyond). Part of the differences between their and our study are likely due to differences in analysis approach; others may be due to the errors in Georgiou et al.’s (2020 reporting.
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COVID-19-related conspiracy beliefs and their relationship with perceived stress and pre-existing conspiracy beliefs in a Prolific Academic sample: A replication and extension of Georgiou et al. (2020)
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Lalot, F., Abrams, D., Heering, M. S., Babaian, J., Özkeçeci, H., Peitz, L., Hayon, K. D., & Broadwood, J. (2021). Distrustful complacency and the COVID-19 vaccine: How concern and political trust interact to affect vaccine hesitancy. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/y9amb
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2021-04-09
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10.31234/osf.io/y9amb
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We test the hypothesis that COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy is attributable to ‘distrustful complacency’ – an interactive and not just additive combination of concern and distrust. Across two studies, 9695 respondents across 13 different parts of Britain reported their level of concern about COVID-19, trust in the UK government, and intention to accept or refuse the vaccine. Multilevel regression analysis, controlling for geographic area and relevant demographics, confirmed the predicted interactive effect of concern and trust. Respondents with both low trust and low concern were 10%-22% more vaccine hesitant than respondents with either high trust or high concern, and 20%-29% more hesitant than respondents with both high trust and high concern. Results hold equally among White, Black, and Muslim respondents, consistent with the view that, regardless of mean level differences, a common process underlies vaccine hesitancy, underlining the importance of tackling distrustful complacency both generally and specifically amongst unvaccinated individuals and populations.
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Distrustful complacency and the COVID-19 vaccine: How concern and political trust interact to affect vaccine hesitancy
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Armitage, C., Keyworth, C., Leather, J., Byrne-Davis, L., & Epton, T. (2020). Identifying Targets For Interventions To Support Public Adherence To Government COVID-19-Related Instructions. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/8gfvb
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2020-07-27
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10.31234/osf.io/8gfvb
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Adherence to government COVID-19-related instructions is important in preventing, detecting, treating and emerging successfully from the acute phase of the pandemic. Public adherence to instructions has been high but will only remain so as long as people’s capabilities, opportunities and motivations are supported. Policy makers should ensure that strategies are developed that will prevent people’s capabilities, opportunities and motivations from being undermined. Men, younger people, and people with black, Asian and minority ethnic backgrounds represent important targets for such interventions.
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Identifying Targets For Interventions To Support Public Adherence To Government COVID-19-Related Instructions
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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2021-05-04
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Grahlow, M., Rupp, C., & Derntl, B. (2021). The impact of face masks on emotion recognition performance and perception of threat. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/6msz8
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10.31234/osf.io/6msz8
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Facial emotion recognition is crucial for social interaction. However, in times of a global pandemic, where wearing a face mask covering mouth and nose is widely encouraged to prevent the spread of disease, successful emotion recognition may be challenging. In Study 1, we investigated whether emotion recognition, assessed by a validated emotion recognition task, is impaired for faces wearing a mask compared to uncovered faces, in a sample of 790 participants between 18 and 89 years. Additionally, perception of threat for faces with and without mask was assessed. We found impaired emotion recognition for faces wearing a mask compared to faces without mask, especially for those depicting anger, sadness and disgust. Further, we observed that perception of threat was altered for faces wearing a mask. In Study 2, we compared emotion recognition performance for faces with and without face mask to faces that are occluded by something other than a mask, i.e. a bubble as well as only showing the upper part of the faces. We found that, for most emotions and especially for disgust, there seems to be an effect that can be ascribed to the face mask specifically, both for emotion recognition performance and perception of threat. Methodological constraints as well as the importance of wearing a mask despite temporarily compromised social interaction are discussed.
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The impact of face masks on emotion recognition performance and perception of threat
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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2021-05-10
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Janke, S., Rudert, S. C., Petersen, Ä., Fritz, T., & Daumiller, M. (2021). Cheating in the wake of COVID-19: How dangerous is ad-hoc online testing for academic integrity? PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/6xmzh
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10.31234/osf.io/6xmzh
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Worldwide, higher education institutions made quick and often unprepared shifts from on-site to online examination in 2020 due to the COVID-19 health crisis. This development sparked an ongoing debate on whether this development made it easier for students to cheat. We investigated whether students indeed cheated more often in online than in on-site exams and whether the use of online exams was also associated with higher rates of other behaviors deemed as academic dishonesty. To answer our research questions, we questioned 1,608 German students from a wide variety of higher education institutions about their behavior during the summer semester of 2020. The participating students reported that they cheated more frequently in online than in on-site exams. Effects on other measures of academic dishonesty were more negligible. These results speak for the notion that the swift application of ad-hoc online testing during 2020 has led to negative consequences for academic integrity.
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Cheating in the wake of COVID-19: How dangerous is ad-hoc online testing for academic integrity?
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www.thelancet.com www.thelancet.com
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Hall, V. J., Foulkes, S., Saei, A., Andrews, N., Oguti, B., Charlett, A., Wellington, E., Stowe, J., Gillson, N., Atti, A., Islam, J., Karagiannis, I., Munro, K., Khawam, J., Chand, M. A., Brown, C. S., Ramsay, M., Lopez-Bernal, J., Hopkins, S., … Heeney, J. L. (2021). COVID-19 vaccine coverage in health-care workers in England and effectiveness of BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine against infection (SIREN): A prospective, multicentre, cohort study. The Lancet, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00790-X
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www.medrxiv.org www.medrxiv.org
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Saadat, S., Tehrani, Z. R., Logue, J., Newman, M., Frieman, M. B., Harris, A. D., & Sajadi, M. M. (2021). Single Dose Vaccination in Healthcare Workers Previously Infected with SARS-CoV-2. MedRxiv, 2021.01.30.21250843. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.30.21250843
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Pelly, D., Daly, M., Delaney, L., & Doyle, O. (2021). Worker well-being before and during the COVID-19 restrictions: A longitudinal study in the UK. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/659yd
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www.propublica.org www.propublica.org
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Martin, N. (n.d.). Nobody Accurately Tracks Health Care Workers Lost to COVID-19. So She Stays Up At Night Cataloging the Dead. ProPublica. Retrieved March 1, 2021, from https://www.propublica.org/article/nobody-accurately-tracks-health-care-workers-lost-to-covid-19-so-she-stays-up-at-night-cataloging-the-dead?token=k0iWSlfCBQl5DBRfyvJNIuVaKXSL22HN
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www.quantamagazine.org www.quantamagazine.org
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Cepelewicz, J. (n.d.). The Hard Lessons of Modeling the Coronavirus Pandemic. Quanta Magazine. Retrieved February 11, 2021, from https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-hard-lessons-of-modeling-the-coronavirus-pandemic-20210128/
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www.slideshare.net www.slideshare.net
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Stephen Senn. (19:12:01 UTC). De Finetti meets Popper [Data & Analytics]. https://www.slideshare.net/StephenSenn1/de-finetti-meets-popper
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absolutelymaybe.plos.org absolutelymaybe.plos.org
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Variants, 3 New Covid Vaccines, and Contested Efficacy Claims: A Month of Seismic Shifts and Confusion. (2021, January 31). Absolutely Maybe. https://absolutelymaybe.plos.org/2021/01/31/variants-3-new-covid-vaccines-and-contested-efficacy-claims-a-month-of-seismic-shifts-and-confusion/
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NERVTAG paper on COVID-19 variant of concern B.1.1.7. (n.d.). GOV.UK. Retrieved March 1, 2021, from https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/nervtag-paper-on-covid-19-variant-of-concern-b117
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www.lrb.co.uk www.lrb.co.uk
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Beale, R. (2021, February 19). Eeek! London Review of Books, 43(05). https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v43/n05/rupert-beale/eeek
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science.sciencemag.org science.sciencemag.org
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Faria, N. R., Mellan, T. A., Whittaker, C., Claro, I. M., Candido, D. da S., Mishra, S., Crispim, M. A. E., Sales, F. C. S., Hawryluk, I., McCrone, J. T., Hulswit, R. J. G., Franco, L. A. M., Ramundo, M. S., Jesus, J. G. de, Andrade, P. S., Coletti, T. M., Ferreira, G. M., Silva, C. A. M., Manuli, E. R., … Sabino, E. C. (2021). Genomics and epidemiology of the P.1 SARS-CoV-2 lineage in Manaus, Brazil. Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abh2644
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www.ox.ac.uk www.ox.ac.uk
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ChAdOx1 nCov-19 provides minimal protection against mild-moderate COVID-19 infection from B.1.351 coronavirus variant in young South African adults | University of Oxford. (n.d.). Retrieved February 18, 2021, from https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-02-07-chadox1-ncov-19-provides-minimal-protection-against-mild-moderate-covid-19-infection
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www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
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Staff, R. (2021, February 6). AstraZeneca thinks shot can stop severe disease from South Africa COVID variant. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-astrazeneca-respon-idUKKBN2A60S2
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www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
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Staff, R. (2021, February 5). AstraZeneca expects U.S. trial results in next 4-6 weeks, research chief says. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-astrazeneca-usa-idUSKBN2A522V
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www.wsj.com www.wsj.com
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Steinhauser, G. (2021, February 7). Rollout of AstraZeneca Covid-19 Vaccine Halted in South Africa After Study. Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/astrazeneca-vaccine-doesnt-protect-against-mild-and-moderate-cases-from-south-africa-strain-11612700385
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www.thelancet.com www.thelancet.com
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Park, J. J. H., Ford, N., Xavier, D., Ashorn, P., Grais, R. F., Bhutta, Z. A., Goossens, H., Thorlund, K., Socias, M. E., & Mills, E. J. (2021). Randomised trials at the level of the individual. The Lancet Global Health, 9(5), e691–e700. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30540-4
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www.imperial.ac.uk www.imperial.ac.uk
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Coronavirus antibody prevalence falling in England, REACT study shows | Imperial News | Imperial College London. (n.d.). Imperial News. Retrieved March 7, 2021, from https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/207333/coronavirus-antibody-prevalence-falling-england-react/
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papers.ssrn.com papers.ssrn.com
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Emary, K. R. W., Golubchik, T., Aley, P. K., Ariani, C. V., Angus, B. J., Bibi, S., Blane, B., Bonsall, D., Cicconi, P., Charlton, S., Clutterbuck, E., Collins, A. M., Cox, T., Darton, T., Dold, C., Douglas, A. D., Duncan, C. J. A., Ewer, K., Flaxman, A., … Group, O. C. V. T. (2021). Efficacy of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) Vaccine Against SARS-CoV-2 VOC 202012/01 (B.1.1.7) (SSRN Scholarly Paper ID 3779160). Social Science Research Network. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3779160
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professorsharonpeacock.co.uk professorsharonpeacock.co.uk
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Long-COVID - the nightmare that won’t end—A researcher’s first hand perspective |Dr Kathy Raven. (2021, February 6). Sharon Peacock. https://professorsharonpeacock.co.uk/long-covid-the-nightmare-that-wont-end-a-first-hand-perspective/
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94% drop in symptomatic COVID cases among Israel’s vaccinated—Study. (n.d.). The Jerusalem Post | JPost.Com. Retrieved February 16, 2021, from https://www.jpost.com/health-science/clalit-data-pfizer-vaccine-reduces-risk-of-serious-covid-19-658959
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Ross, J. S. (2021). Covid-19, open science, and the CVD-COVID-UK initiative. BMJ, 373, n898. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n898
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Nisreen Alwan: We must pay more attention to covid-19 morbidity in the second year of the pandemic. (2021, February 3). The BMJ. https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/02/03/nisreen-alwan-we-must-pay-more-attention-to-covid-19-morbidity-in-the-second-year-of-the-pandemic/
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www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
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Anthes, E. (2021, April 8). Has the Era of Overzealous Cleaning Finally Come to an End? The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/08/health/coronavirus-hygiene-cleaning-surfaces.html
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Kiltie, J., Satchell, L., M. (929493), C., Daniels, M., Gould, C. S., Sparrowe, K., Hudson, C. A., & Husted, M. (2021). The effect of change in routine on student mental wellbeing during a nationwide lockdown. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/suwnp
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Coronapas: The passport helping Denmark open up after Covid. (2021, April 20). BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56812293
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www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com
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Can the Bike Boom Keep Going? (2020, October 29). Bloomberg.Com. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-29/how-the-feds-could-keep-the-bike-boom-rolling
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Disabato, D., Aurora, P., Sidney, P. G., Taber, J. M., Thompson, C. A., & Coifman, K. (2021). Taking care with self-care during COVID-19: Affect-behavior associations during early stages of the pandemic. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/eycmj
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www.scientificamerican.com www.scientificamerican.com
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Moyer, M. W. (n.d.). A Flu Shot Might Reduce Coronavirus Infections, Early Research Suggests. Scientific American. Retrieved February 23, 2021, from https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/a-flu-shot-might-reduce-coronavirus-infections-early-research-suggests/
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www.fda.gov www.fda.gov
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Commissioner, O. of the. (2020, December 14). FDA Takes Key Action in Fight Against COVID-19 By Issuing Emergency Use Authorization for First COVID-19 Vaccine. FDA; FDA. https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19
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www.scientificamerican.com www.scientificamerican.com
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Parker, F. T.-A., Scott Frickel,John. (n.d.). Scientists Are Becoming More Politically Engaged. Scientific American. Retrieved March 1, 2021, from https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/scientists-are-becoming-more-politically-engaged/
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thebiologist.rsb.org.uk thebiologist.rsb.org.uk
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‘I’m ridiculously positive about the media’s coverage of COVID-19.’ (n.d.). RSB. Retrieved February 13, 2021, from https://www.rsb.org.uk//biologist-covid-19/189-biologist/biologist-covid-19/2568-fiona-fox-interview
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www.bmj.com www.bmj.com
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Moore, A., & MacKenzie, M. K. (2020). Policy making during crises: How diversity and disagreement can help manage the politics of expert advice. BMJ, 371, m4039. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m4039
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www.scientificamerican.com www.scientificamerican.com
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Loeb, A. (n.d.). The Scientific Benefits of Social Distancing. Scientific American. Retrieved February 27, 2021, from https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-scientific-benefits-of-social-distancing/
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Bedder, R., Vaghi, M., Dolan, R., & Rutledge, R. (2020). Risk taking for potential losses but not gains increases with time of day. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/3qdnx
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www.thelancet.com www.thelancet.com
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Dron, L., Taljaard, M., Cheung, Y. B., Grais, R., Ford, N., Thorlund, K., Jahan, F., Nakimuli-Mpungu, E., Xavier, D., Bhutta, Z. A., Park, J. J. H., & Mills, E. J. (2021). The role and challenges of cluster randomised trials for global health. The Lancet Global Health, 9(5), e701–e710. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30541-6
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Blakemore, E. (n.d.). New diabetes cases linked to covid-19. Washington Post. Retrieved February 11, 2021, from https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/02/01/covid-new-onset-diabetes/
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Marques, M. D., Kerr, J., Williams, M., Ling, M., & McLennan, J. (2021). Associations Between Conspiracism and the Rejection of Scientific Innovations. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/y9mnb
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journals.plos.org journals.plos.org
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Piotrowska, M. J., Sakowski, K., Karch, A., Tahir, H., Horn, J., Kretzschmar, M. E., & Mikolajczyk, R. T. (2020). Modelling pathogen spread in a healthcare network: Indirect patient movements. PLOS Computational Biology, 16(11), e1008442. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008442
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www.reddit.com www.reddit.com
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r/BehSciAsk—BehSci vs Dog Mess. (n.d.). Reddit. Retrieved February 8, 2021, from https://www.reddit.com/r/BehSciAsk/comments/lanlm7/behsci_vs_dog_mess/
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www.scientificamerican.com www.scientificamerican.com
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Aschwanden, C. (n.d.). How to Minimize COVID Risk and Enjoy the Holidays. Scientific American. Retrieved February 27, 2021, from https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-to-minimize-covid-risk-and-enjoy-the-holidays/
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Pappalardo, L., Cornacchia, G., Navarro, V., Bravo, L., & Ferres, L. (2020). A dataset to assess mobility changes in Chile following local quarantines. ArXiv:2011.12162 [Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2011.12162
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The Data Visualizations Behind COVID-19 Skepticism. (n.d.). The Data Visualizations Behind COVID-19 Skepticism. Retrieved March 27, 2021, from http://vis.csail.mit.edu/covid-story/
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www.newscientist.com www.newscientist.com
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Lu, D. (n.d.). Australia clamps down in response to cases of UK coronavirus variant. New Scientist. Retrieved February 23, 2021, from https://www.newscientist.com/article/2264588-australia-clamps-down-in-response-to-cases-of-uk-coronavirus-variant/
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Ingram, G., Chuquichambi, E. G., Jimenez-Leal, W., & Olivera-LaRosa, A. (2021). In Masks we Trust: Explicit and Implicit Reactions to Masked Faces Vary by Voting Intention. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/9d4eu
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Beltran, D. G., Isch, C., Ayers, J. D., Alcock, J., Brinkworth, J. F., Cronk, L., Hurmuz-Sklias, H., Tidball, K. G., Horn, A. V., Todd, P. M., & Aktipis, A. (2021). Mask wearing behavior across routine and leisure activities during COVID-19. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/2qya8
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Stajduhar, A., Ganel, T., Avidan, G., Rosenbaum, R. S., & Freud, E. (2021). Face Masks Disrupt Holistic Processing and Face Perception in School-Age Children. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/fygjq
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jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk
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Koehler, M., Slater, D. M., Jacyna, G., & Thompson, J. R. (2021). Modeling COVID-19 for Lifting Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 24(2), 9.
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www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
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Bosman, J., Burch, A. D. S., & Mervosh, S. (2020, November 6). One Day in America: More Than 121,000 Coronavirus Cases. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/05/us/covid-one-day-in-america.html
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www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
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Stolberg, S. G., & Zimmer, C. (2021, April 7). More Contagious Virus Variant Is Now Dominant in U.S., C.D.C. Chief Says. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/07/us/politics/coronavirus-variants-cdc.html
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onlinelibrary.wiley.com onlinelibrary.wiley.com
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Ioannidis, J. P. A. (n.d.). Reconciling estimates of global spread and infection fatality rates of COVID-19: An overview of systematic evaluations. European Journal of Clinical Investigation, n/a(n/a), e13554. https://doi.org/10.1111/eci.13554
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Trovò, B., & Massari, N. (2021). Ants-Review: A Protocol for Incentivized Open Peer-Reviews on Ethereum. ArXiv:2101.09378 [Cs]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2101.09378
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Park, J. J. H., Mogg, R., Smith, G. E., Nakimuli-Mpungu, E., Jehan, F., Rayner, C. R., Condo, J., Decloedt, E. H., Nachega, J. B., Reis, G., & Mills, E. J. (2021). How COVID-19 has fundamentally changed clinical research in global health. The Lancet Global Health, 9(5), e711–e720. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30542-8
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Merchant, A. (n.d.). Perspective | I work in a nursing home. Here’s why my colleagues are skipping the vaccine. Washington Post. Retrieved February 18, 2021, from https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/nursing-home-skip-vaccine/2021/02/12/4d31d17a-6bfa-11eb-9f80-3d7646ce1bc0_story.html
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bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
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Tunçgenç, B., Zein, M. E., Sulik, J., Newson, M., Zhao, Y., Dezecache, G., & Deroy, O. (n.d.). Social influence matters: We follow pandemic guidelines most when our close circle does. British Journal of Psychology, n/a(n/a). https://doi.org/10.1111/bjop.12491
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Thomas, P. (2020, December 7). Your Boss Can Restrict Your Holiday Plans in the Pandemic. Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/your-boss-can-restrict-your-holiday-plans-in-the-pandemic-11607301504
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Długosz, P. (2021). PREDICTORS OF MENTAL HEALTH AFTER THE FIRST WAVE OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN POLAND. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/89cnw
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www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
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Sansone, A., Mollaioli, D., Ciocca, G., Limoncin, E., Colonnello, E., Vena, W., & Jannini, E. A. (2020). Addressing male sexual and reproductive health in the wake of COVID-19 outbreak. Journal of Endocrinological Investigation, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40618-020-01350-1
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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Mullard, A. (2020). How COVID vaccines are being divvied up around the world. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-03370-6
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www.newscientist.com www.newscientist.com
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Lawton, G. (n.d.). US refuses to extend time between coronavirus vaccine doses. New Scientist. Retrieved March 24, 2021, from https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24933263-700-us-refuses-to-extend-time-between-coronavirus-vaccine-doses/
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www.sciencedirect.com www.sciencedirect.com
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Elgar, F. J., Stefaniak, A., & Wohl, M. J. A. (2020). The trouble with trust: Time-series analysis of social capital, income inequality, and COVID-19 deaths in 84 countries. Social Science & Medicine, 263, 113365. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113365
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Lindholt, M. F., Jørgensen, F. J., Bor, A., & Petersen, M. B. (2020). Willingness to Use an Approved COVID-19 Vaccine: Cross-National Evidence on Levels and Individual-Level Predictors. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/8kn5f
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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Cichocka, A. (2020). To counter conspiracy theories, boost well-being. Nature, 587(7833), 177–177. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-03130-6
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Park, J. J. H., Grais, R. F., Taljaard, M., Nakimuli-Mpungu, E., Jehan, F., Nachega, J. B., Ford, N., Xavier, D., Kengne, A. P., Ashorn, P., Socias, M. E., Bhutta, Z. A., & Mills, E. J. (2021). Urgently seeking efficiency and sustainability of clinical trials in global health. The Lancet Global Health, 9(5), e681–e690. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30539-8
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en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
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Gambler’s fallacy. (2021). In Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Gambler%27s_fallacy&oldid=1006742838
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Conley, D., & Johnson, T. (2021). Opinion: Past is future for the era of COVID-19 research in the social sciences. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(13). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2104155118
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Hernán, M. A., Clayton, D., & Keiding, N. (2011). The Simpson’s paradox unraveled. International Journal of Epidemiology, 40(3), 780–785. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyr041
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Hansen, S., Wetherell, M., & Smith, M. A. (2020). Written benefit finding for improving psychological health during the Covid-19 pandemic first wave lockdown. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/b42jq
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Pei, R., Cosme, D., Andrews, M. E., Mattan, B. D., & Falk, E. (2020). Cultural influence on COVID-19 cognitions and growth speed: The role of cultural collectivism. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/fet6z
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Lewis, T. (n.d.). Slovakia Offers a Lesson in How Rapid Testing Can Fight COVID. Scientific American. Retrieved April 9, 2021, from https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/slovakia-offers-a-lesson-in-how-rapid-testing-can-fight-covid/
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Chen, X., Chen, Z., Azman, A. S., Deng, X., Sun, R., Zhao, Z., Zheng, N., Chen, X., Lu, W., Zhuang, T., Yang, J., Viboud, C., Ajelli, M., Leung, D. T., & Yu, H. (2021). Serological evidence of human infection with SARS-CoV-2: A systematic review and meta-analysis. The Lancet Global Health, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(21)00026-7
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Report that "SA" variant considerably reduces the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine's efficacy https://twitter.com/janinegibson/status/1358151228203683854
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...Latest data for standard doses: 63% (52-72%), with some possible lowering from "UK" variant (maybe "SA" too?). So many moving parts! US trial could be similar, but with much greater certainty - or lower. Could be higher. 8/8 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3777268…, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3779160
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..Then there's placebo control. A trial in Cuba is testing hypothesis that meningococcal vaccine boosts innate immunity & protects against Covid-19 https://rpcec.sld.cu/en/trials/RPCEC00000314-En… *Long* shot, but if it does at all, that control in the other trials may have reduced apparent efficacy..
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twitter.com twitter.com
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I fear that AZ resistance will grow following the decision by the Fr govt and medical advisory board that under 55s who have had a dose of AZ should receive a 2nd dose of another vax. This goes against WHO guidelines but the French board says there should be no problem.
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Stats. Figures for use of doses in France do now show a clear resistance to AZ – and to a lesser extent Moderna. As of Thurs, by my calculations, Pfizer doses were 85% used, Moderna 69% and AZ 61%. Overall French utilisation rate is now 78%, slightly down on last week.
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Thirdly, this is not just a French success. Most other EU countries are also vaxxing at high rates now that large supplies of Pfizer and to a less extent Moderna are available. Johnson and Johnson starts its one-jab rollout in the EU on 19 April.
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twitter.com twitter.com
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We halved all public health funding between 2012 and 2020, to a paltry £3 billion per year, even though a pandemic has consistently been the biggest threat to the country, higher even than war. We spend 13 times more on defence than PH. And 400x more than on infection control
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We could have done what they did in one province of China (which is much poorer than us) if we had invested in strong public health, included independent PH advisers on SAGE, and mobilised districts and communities. We still aren't doing it.
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The UK wasted £22 billion on a system not run by public health experts. We had to borrow £373 billion even before the second surge. The loss of GDP and future unemployment suggest the impact of the pandemic could cost us a sum of more than a trillion pounds.
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twitter.com twitter.com
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We halved all public health funding between 2012 and 2020, to a paltry £3 billion per year, even though a pandemic has consistently been the biggest threat to the country, higher even than war. We spend 13 times more on defence than PH. And 400x more than on infection control
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We could have done what they did in one province of China (which is much poorer than us) if we had invested in strong public health, included independent PH advisers on SAGE, and mobilised districts and communities. We still aren't doing it.
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The UK wasted £22 billion on a system not run by public health experts. We had to borrow £373 billion even before the second surge. The loss of GDP and future unemployment suggest the impact of the pandemic could cost us a sum of more than a trillion pounds.
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Ioannidis' exclusion fits with him under-estimating IFR by using non-representative samples in areas that under-estimate COVID deaths. The WHO + the USA's CDC know better, and so rely on Levin et al.: https://web.archive.org/web/20210324195745/https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html… https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1374617361194565634… https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1
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With that framework in place, let's start with the page-by-page review of Ioannidis' paper: Ioannidis excludes @GidMK + @BillHanage's paper Levin et al., because it focused on specific countries. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1336442679689965570… https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1… https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13554
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So in this thread, *keep this in mind*: Ioannidis has to keep non-representative samples in, because representative samples show an IFR incompatible with his position. That's his main game, + what he often distracts from https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1375343648129359880…
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twitter.com twitter.com
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8. Gambler’s fallacy Arguably the odd one in the list, but cognitive biases about probabilities of recurrent events are very real and relevant https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
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7. Prosecutor's fallacy Pr(B|A) is not Pr(A|B). Confusing sensitivity/specificity for predictive values, p-values for probabilities about the hypothesis,.... the prosecutor's fallacy list is long
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6. Berkson’s paradox Also known as collider bias, something we have seen plenty in the COVID-19 literature
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twitter.com twitter.com
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He spends quite a bit of time on my and @LeaMerone's paper, arguing that we “cherry-picked” evidence to suit our conclusions and that our analysis methods are “overtly implausible”
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The author looks at each review and discusses his view on their limitations and successes, then concludes that the best estimate is his own
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So I don't know if the primary purpose of this paper makes sense But what is it exactly? Well, it’s mostly a review of systematic reviews
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In this thread, the researcher in question, @GidMK, offers his thoughts on the whole affair.
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twitter.com twitter.com
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They go on to explain that these aforementioned points led to yesterday's decision by the @PEI_Germany to recommend suspension of the #AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine as a precautionary measure until further assessment can be completed.
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The PEI states that they consulted other experts in thrombosis, hematology, and an adenovirus specialist about this issue & all unanimously agreed that a pattern could be recognized here & a connection between the reported cases and the AZ vaccination "was not implausible".
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The younger to middle-aged population in which these severe cerebral venous thromboses+platelet deficiency was observed is not the group at highest risk for a severe/fatal COVID-19. (Sidenote: this is why so many of us wanted information on age group yesterday)
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twitter.com twitter.com
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and "search" is just one way of conceptualising/pinning down the likelihood P(no evidence|Hyp_false). See e.g., here https://books.google.de/books?hl=en&lr=&id=6Q-NS7CUTF0C&oi=fnd&pg=PA121&dq=Hahn+u+inference+from+absence&ots=bTWmnEjvL3&sig=xyqByJJAQy61MZEiq8BvdylGmlU&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=Hahn%20u%20inference%20from%20absence&f=false… similarly, calculating BFs, it's the prob. of *actual data* under null that we are using, not some further new evidence item "search"
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I now see what you are aiming at! I disagree, though: it seems odd to take the search itself to be the evidence, given that it is *result* of the search that determines the evidential impact, not search per se. I can search throughly and fail, or search and find something.
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