- Nov 2024
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Local file Local file
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Surprisingly, the American author who is quoted most in the OED isnot Mark Twain or Emily Dickinson or Edgar Allan Poe, but rather EdwardH. Knight, a patent lawyer and expert in mechanics who wrote the AmericanMechanical Dictionary and The Practical Dictionary of Mechanics. Knight isthe seventy-fourth-most cited author in the Dictionary, quoted morefrequently than Percy Bysshe Shelley, George Eliot or Ralph Waldo Emerson(who comes in at 116, the next-most quoted American).
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- Sep 2024
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en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
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Round half to even, which rounds to the nearest even number. With this method, 1.25 is rounded down to 1.2. If this method applies to 1.35, then it is rounded up to 1.4. This is the method preferred by many scientific disciplines, because, for example, it avoids skewing the average value of a long list of values upwards.
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- Aug 2024
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abcnews.go.com abcnews.go.com
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Why Clinton's claim that Democratic presidents created more jobs than Republicans is slightly misleading by [[Maz Zahn]] on 2024-08-22 for ABC News
While Clinton may have left out additional detail, the root of the statement is not only broadly true, but broadly representative of the fact that Republican administrations have been devastating in general to the economy and Democrats have been handed shit at the start of their terms to clean up.
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- Jul 2024
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stats.thunderbird.net stats.thunderbird.net
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Input Crowd, Output Meaning
Polis<br /> https://pol.is/home
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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we've achieved a level of prosperity for a huge number of people that was not typical of the past i mean most countries have a big middle class as well as an extremely wealthy upper 00:50:00 class but the number of people in abject poverty in the world today living on less than two dollars a day is greater than the entire population of the world 00:50:13 only 100 years ago so that's not progress
for - statistics - progress trap - comparative levels of poverty
statistics - progress trap - comparative levels of poverty - modern civilization has - a huge middle class - a small elite class - a huge impoverished class - The absolute number of people living on less than 2 dollars a day is less than the entire population of humans only 100 years ago
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- May 2024
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www.lesswrong.com www.lesswrong.com
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the more you learn, the smaller your error will tend to be.
More data = More accurate results
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- Mar 2024
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statsandr.com statsandr.com
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A nice and easy way to report results of an ANOVA in R is with the report() function from the {report} package:
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- Feb 2024
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Local file Local file
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Those times are better captured in the ten volumes, 414,825entries, and 1,827,306 quotations that were finally published in 1928.
The first edition of the Oxford English dictionary was published in 1928 in 10 volumes containing 414,825 entries and 1,827,306 quotations.
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Some Americans did write directly to Murray, and these – 196 ofthem – are the ones underlined in the address books. They represent 10 percent of all the Dictionary People with addresses and produced a total of238,080 slips that crossed the ocean before coming to rest on Murray’s deskin the Scriptorium.
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Ranking below Thomas Austin, who sent in 165,061 slips, and WilliamDouglas, who sent in 151,982, there is a big drop to the third-highestcontributor Dr Thomas Nadauld Brushfield, who sent in 70,277 slips.
repetition here from before to introduce mental health...
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And yet he desperately needed the help of Subeditors because the task wastoo massive to do alone. Two years into the job, Murray had estimated thathe had sent out 817,625 blank slips to Readers. If they returned them withquotations, and if he spent a minimum of 30 seconds reading each one andallocating it to the correct sense of an entry, it would take him three workingyears to get through a third of the materials gathered.
By the second year into his editing work on the OED, John Murray estimated that he had sent out 817,625 slips to readers.
At the average price of $0.025 for bulk index cards in 2023, this would have cost $20,440, so one must wonder at the cost of having done it. How much would this have been in March 1879 when Murray tool over editorship?
How many went out in total? Who cut them all? Surely mass manufacture didn't exist at the time for them?
Sending them out would have helped to ensure a reasonable facsimile of having cards of equal size coming back.
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Murray received a poignant letter in 1906 fromthe wife of William Sykes of South Devon who had been a one-timeassistant, and faithful Reader and Specialist for twenty-two years, sending in atotal of 16,048 slips: ‘My dear husband died last Friday, the day he receivedyour letter, he was able to read it, and wrote your name in one of the books Iam going to send you eight hours before he died. It took him an hour to writeit, but he made up his mind to do it, and did. The last words he ever wrotewere to you.’ A poignant last line from the impoverished widow reads, ‘I shallsend the books when the probate duty has been paid.’
William Sykes 16,048 slips over 22 years<br /> (approximately 2 notes per day)
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From the moment in March 1879 whenMurray signed the contract with Oxford University Press to be the next Editorof the Dictionary, and he took possession of 2 tons of slips at his house, hisfamily was immediately part of the project (whether they liked it or not)sorting out the slips. Their house was a workplace and the family aworkforce.
Perhaps one of the first sources of counting slips in weight rather than number!
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The most prolific Reader in Europe – we might call him a ‘super-contributor’ – was Hartwig Helwich, a professor at the University of Viennawho wrote out the entire Cursor Mundi onto 46,599 slips. His efforts madethe medieval poem the second-most-frequently cited work in the Dictionaryafter the Bible (though in the current OED, it has dropped to eleventh in thetop sources).
This practice of writing out everything onto slips sounds like that used later (double check the timing) by the Thesaurus Linguae Latinae in creating their slip corpus for later work.
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- Nov 2023
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www.weforum.org www.weforum.org
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Get it right and we will see a lot less of our precious minerals, metals and resources dumped into landfill
This line specifically stood out to me in this article because it is hard to hear, but also very true to the world we live in. As a world, we toss things out the moment they are no longer viewed as valuable to us but we dont toss things when they are "precious". For example, we buy a new iphone and hold it to a high value but then a year later a new iphone comes out and the old one gets tossed away like it is invaluable. Instead of just tossing things like this we need to be more proactive in recycling valuable and difficult resources that one day we may not have.
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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the suicide is up by 30% depression rates are skyrocketing 36% of 00:07:57 Americans report feeling lonely frequently 45% of teenagers say they feel despondent and hopeless most of the time the number of people who have no who say they have no close personal friends has gone up by four 00:08:10 times 36% more Americans are not in a romantic relationship uh the number of people Americans who rate themselves in the lowest happiness category has gone up by 50%
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for: statistics - United States happiness indicators
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statistics: United States happiness indicators
- suicide is up by 30%
- depression is skyrocketing
- 36% of Americans report feeling lonely frequently
- 45% of teenagers say they feel despondent and hopeless most of the time
- the number of people who say they have no close personal friends has gone up by four times
- 36% more Americans are not in a romantic relationship
- the number of people Americans who rate themselves in the lowest happiness category has gone up by 50%
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- Oct 2023
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rdf.insee.fr rdf.insee.fr
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datatracker.ietf.org datatracker.ietf.org
- Jul 2023
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xianblog.wordpress.com xianblog.wordpress.com
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weakly informative approach to Bayesian analysis
In [[Richard McElreath]]'s [[Statistical Rethinking]], he defines [[weakly informative priors]] (aka [[regularizing priors]]) as
priors that gently nudge the machine [which] usually improve inference. Such priors are sometimes called regularizing or weakly informative priors. They are so useful that non-Bayesian statistical procedures have adopted a mathematically equivalent approach, [[penalized likelihood]]. (p. 35, 1st ed.)
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civil.colorado.edu civil.colorado.edu
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Science is not described by thefalsification standard, as Popper recognized and argued.4 In fact, deductive falsification isimpossible in nearly every scientific context. In this section, I review two reasons for thisimpossibility.(1) Hypotheses are not models. The relations among hypotheses and different kinds ofmodels are complex. Many models correspond to the same hypothesis, and manyhypotheses correspond to a single model. This makes strict falsification impossible.(2) Measurement matters. Even when we think the data falsify a model, another ob-server will debate our methods and measures. They don’t trust the data. Sometimesthey are right.For both of these reasons, deductive falsification never works. The scientific method cannotbe reduced to a statistical procedure, and so our statistical methods should not pretend.
Seems consistent with how Popper used the terms [[falsification]] and [[falsifiability]] noted here
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So where do priors come from? They are engineering assumptions, chosen to help themachine learn. The flat prior in Figure 2.5 is very common, but it is hardly ever the best prior.You’ll see later in the book that priors that gently nudge the machine usually improve infer-ence. Such priors are sometimes called regularizing or weakly informative priors.They are so useful that non-Bayesian statistical procedures have adopted a mathematicallyequivalent approach, penalized likelihood. These priors are conservative, in that theytend to guard against inferring strong associations between variables.
p. 35 where [[Richard McElreath]] defines [[weakly informative priors]] aka [[regularizing priors]] in [[Bayesian statistics]]. Notes that non-Bayesian methods have a mathematically equivalent approach called [[penalized likelihood]].
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one assumes the population size andstructure have been constant long enough for the distribution of alleles to reach a steady state
The population size & structure being "constant" is what [[Richard McElreath]] means by "equilibrium" in \(\text{P}_{0\text{A}}\) (process model zero-A), which corresponds to the null hypothesis
\(\text{H}_0: \text{``Evolution is neutral"}\)
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Andrew Gelman’s
Per Andrew Gelman's wiki:
Andrew Eric Gelman (born February 11, 1965) is an American statistician and professor of statistics and political science at Columbia University.
Gelman received bachelor of science degrees in mathematics and in physics from MIT, where he was a National Merit Scholar, in 1986. He then received a master of science in 1987 and a doctor of philosophy in 1990, both in statistics from Harvard University, under the supervision of Donald Rubin.[1][2][3]
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alexplescan.com alexplescan.com
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www.congress.gov www.congress.gov
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The global illicit trade in wildlife may be worth up to $20,000,000,000 annually and the value of legal wildlife trade in the United States was recently estimated at $2,800,000,000 annually.
What is the source of this figure?
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- Apr 2023
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ageoftransformation.org ageoftransformation.org
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people with poor family relationships and no close friends “are ten times more likely to suffer from significant mental health challenges” compared to those with many close family bonds and friendships.
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- Mar 2023
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www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
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Basic statistics regarding the TLL: - ancient Latin vocabulary words: ca. 55,000 words - 10,000,000 slips - ca. 6,500 boxes - ca. 1,500 slips per box - library 32,000 volumes - contributors: 375 scholars from 20 different countries - 12 Indo-European specalists - 8 Romance specialists - 100 proof-readers - ca. 44,000 words published - published content: 70% of the entire vocabulary - print run: 1,350 - Publisher: consortium of 35 academies from 27 countries on 5 continents
Longest remaining words: - non / 37 boxes of ca 55,500 slips - qui, quae, quod / 65 boxes of ca. 96,000 slips - sum, esse, fui / 54.5 boxes of ca. 81,750 slips - ut / 35 boxes of ca 52,500 slips
Note that some of these words have individual zettelkasten for themselves approaching the size of some of the largest personal collections we know about!
[18:51]
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psychclassics.yorku.ca psychclassics.yorku.ca
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Statistics collected in hundreds of cities in the United States show that between a third and a half of the school children fail to progress through the grades at the expected rate; that from 10 to 15 per cent are retarded two years or more; and that from 5 to 8 per cent are retarded at least three years. More than 10 per cent of the $400,000,000 annually expended in the United States for school instruction is devoted to re-teaching children what they have already been taught but have failed to learn.
I think this information is interesting because we are being told that more than 1/3 of school children fail to progress to the next grade. I think we need to incorporate different learning styles because what if the individual doesn't understand the concept the way it is being taught. Many people learn in different ways such as hands on learning, auditory learning, and visual learning. I think the reason 10% of $400,000,000 is going into teaching children what they have learned but have failed to learn is because there maybe something up head in learning that they might need to understand for the future. I have been retaught certain things when I moved up to the next grade level and I think it is to help refresh memory. I think another reason 10% goes to reteaching is because the students didn't understand the concept and needs to be retaught so they can understand for future uses.
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www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Jan 2023
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www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
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How To Perform T-Tests In Microsoft Excel
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www.scribbr.com www.scribbr.com
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An Introduction to t Tests | Definitions, Formula and Examples
How to TTEST
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s4be.cochrane.org s4be.cochrane.org
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High-level view of the 3 different types of heterogeneity (clinical, methodological, statistical). I used these definitions as the basis for some Anki cards
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linked-statistics.github.io linked-statistics.github.io
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www.w3.org www.w3.orgXKOS1
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- Dec 2022
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rasbt.github.io rasbt.github.io
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are already done: E[S]E[(y−y^)2]=E[(y−y^)2]=(y−E[y^])2+E[(E[y^]−y^)2]=[Bias]2+Variance
bias variance decomposition 两个都定义不清就容易混
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en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
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Aleatoric music (also aleatory music or chance music; from the Latin word alea, meaning "dice") is music in which some element of the composition is left to chance, and/or some primary element of a composed work's realization is left to the determination of its performer(s). The term is most often associated with procedures in which the chance element involves a relatively limited number of possibilities.
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andrei-wonge.github.io andrei-wonge.github.io
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formula
Consider that: 1. Sine and cosine are orthogonal to each other 2. Hence, you can rewrite -sin(Θ) = cos(Θ + π/2) cos(Θ) = sin(Θ + π/2) 3. Therefore, the angle between the standard basis vectors, and their orientation, are preserved!
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- Nov 2022
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brightspace.une.edu brightspace.une.edu
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the positivist paradigm
Based in the belief that there is a tangible reality. Everything can be understood, measured, and/or identified. In this paradigm the researcher should focus on facts and they should look for fundamental laws.
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Свойства оценок: несмещенность, состоятельность, эффективность.
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rdf.insee.fr rdf.insee.fr
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- Sep 2022
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oer.pressbooks.pub oer.pressbooks.pub
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To get help with your academic problems you must try Statistics Homework help to get good grades and course guidance.
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oer.pressbooks.pub oer.pressbooks.pub
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If you are looking for your statistics homework help visit the best website Statistics Homework Help, it has more than 300+ p.hD experts and they provide help with 24x7.
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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Sverigedemokraterna
Number of parliamentary candidates that are connected to criminal biker gangs. This is only for the parliamentary election in 2022.
Sverigedemokraterna make up 59% of the list; see the table on page 16 of this report.
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De politiska partierna
Number of parliamentary candidates that were connected to criminal biker gangs in the last five elections.
Sverigedemokraterna make up 58% of the list.
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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This PDF is taken from the Swedish Police: https://polisen.se/om-polisen/polisens-arbete/sprangningar-och-skjutningar/
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74
The total number of injuries due to shootings in Sweden, 2022-01-01—2022-09-01.
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47
The total number of deaths due to shootings in Sweden, 2022-01-01—2022-09-01.
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273
The total number of shootings in Sweden, 2022-01-01—2022-09-01.
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- Aug 2022
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www.arkko.com www.arkko.com
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci. (2021, December 14). RT @thehowie: "...The vaccine provided 70 percent protection in fully vaccinated individuals against severe complications that would requir… [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1470749072160133128
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci. (2021, December 14). RT @thehowie: BREAKING South Africa: 82% increase in cases, week over week. 34.9% positive rate. Record 7-day average. Not near platea… [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1470814593610047490
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Polis. (n.d.). Retrieved April 26, 2022, from https://pol.is/home
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci on Twitter: “RT @chrischirp: As well as Tom’s new one (B.1.1.529), C.1.2 seems to be spreading in S Africa—C.1.2 was the one with lots of worrying mut…” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved December 23, 2021, from https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1463597407082532864
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci. (2021, December 16). RT @MadsAlbertsen85: #Omicron update from Denmark. Omicron cases on the 12th of December adjusted up to 20.5% (+2%). Omicron is now having… [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1471516083819462670
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci. (2021, December 9). a rather worrying development- a (local) newspaper “fact checking” the new German health minister simply by interviewing a virologist who happens to have a different view. There’s simply no established “fact” as to the severity of omicron in children at this point in time [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1469037817481334786
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Trevor Bedford. (2021, December 11). We find that logistic growth of Omicron sequence fraction looks similar between the UK, the US and Germany with roughly 1% of sequenced cases in all three countries being Omicron on Dec 1. 3/10 https://t.co/De0t2xreU9 [Tweet]. @trvrb. https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1469784757261127685
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci on Twitter: “RT @fascinatorfun: Ouch. Norway 4117 new cases is equivalent to over 50k in the U.K. But the kickers are the sheer speed of increase (43%…” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved December 23, 2021, from https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1468139950939901952
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gidmk.medium.com gidmk.medium.com
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Nerd, G. M.-K. H. (2022, February 25). The Jury is Still Out on Ivermectin. Medium. https://gidmk.medium.com/the-jury-is-still-out-on-ivermectin-7d0a1895549
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci. (2021, November 26). German statistics suggesting that 8-9 of 10 infections involve at least one unvaccinated person [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1464319213028491274
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci. (2021, December 11). RT @DocMoschos: Massive French study on school transmission should now put a stopper to the “no transmission in schools” U.K. mantra: Trans… [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1469635260451373056
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci. (2021, November 24). RT @Antonio_Caramia: @dgurdasani1 @ProfColinDavis Just updated hospital admissions for 0-5 and 6-17 years old in England. Https://t.co/yHS4… [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1463595068166742016
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Pouria Hadjibagheri [@Pouriaaa]. (2021, July 14). The state of the UK’s statistical system 2020/21 by @StatsRegulation Thank you! 🎊😀🎉 See the report: Https://osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/publication/the-state-of-the-uks-statistical-system-2020-21/pages/8/ https://t.co/dEBmVz3oTm [Tweet]. Twitter. https://twitter.com/Pouriaaa/status/1415371346775838725
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci. (2021, November 27). RT @_HassanF: 📢 2 key 📑 resources, if you writing about us in Africa right now: Africa-Vaccine Data 2021: Https://mediahack.co.za/datastories/coronavirus/africa-covid19/africa-vaccinations/ @mediah… [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1464683668631392257
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci. (2021, December 20). RT @thehowie: South Africa Deaths (7 day average) are near double levels of a few weeks ago. They will go up further. They are only 7.5%… [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1472991477672419334
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example.com example.com
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we launched a service that’s now used by over a million people around the world who have made nearly 40 million annotations. In higher education, more than 1,200 colleges and universities use Hypothesis. And we’ve grown from a handful of people into a team of more than 35 passionate web builders.
h. in 2022 has over 1 million users, who made nearly 40 million annotations. Early this year 2 million annotated articles/sites was reached (2175298 is the number the API rerurns today). This sounds like a lot but on its face works out to an average of 40 annotations on 2 articles per user. This suggests to me the mode is 1 annotation on 1 article per user. How many of those 1 million were active last week / month?
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en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
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Otto Karl Wilhelm Neurath (German: [ˈnɔʏʀaːt]; 10 December 1882 – 22 December 1945) was an Austrian-born philosopher of science, sociologist, and political economist. He was also the inventor of the ISOTYPE method of pictorial statistics and an innovator in museum practice. Before he fled his native country in 1934, Neurath was one of the leading figures of the Vienna Circle.
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- Jun 2022
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www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
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www.scientificamerican.com www.scientificamerican.com
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First, the so-called normal distribution of statistics assumes that there are default humans who serve as the standard that the rest of us can be accurately measured against.
"so-called"?! wow! This is a massively divergent viewpoint.
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- May 2022
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cagrimmett.com cagrimmett.com
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The highlights you made in FreeTime are preserved in My Clippings.txt, but you can’t see them on the Kindle unless you are in FreeTime mode. Progress between FreeTime and regular mode are tracked separately, too. I now pretty much only use my Kindle in FreeTime mode so that my reading statistics are tracked. If you are a data nerd and want to crunch the data on your own, it is stored in a SQLite file on your device under system > freetime > freetime.db.
FreeTime mode on the Amazon Kindle will provide you with reading statistics. You can find the raw data as an SQLite file under system > freetime > freetime.db.
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According to a Pew study from last year, only 20 percent of K-12 students in America study a foreign language (compared with an average of 92 percent in Europe), and only 10 states and the District of Columbia make foreign-language learning a high school graduation requirement.
use of statistics
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According to the Modern Language Association, enrollment in college-level foreign-language courses dropped 9.2 percent from 2013 to 2016.
Use of statistics
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- Apr 2022
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci [@SciBeh]. (2021, December 25). RT @thehowie: South Africa: Christmas update Hospitalizations⬆️15% week over week, ⬇️0.4% from yesterday. Gauteng Province ⬆️1.8% week ov… [Tweet]. Twitter. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1474815859235381251
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covid19.healthdata.org covid19.healthdata.org
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IHME | COVID-19 Projections. (n.d.). Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Retrieved April 21, 2022, from https://covid19.healthdata.org/
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci. (2022, January 24). @STWorg @FraserNelson @GrahamMedley no worse- he took Medley’s comment that Sage model the scenarios the government asks them to consider to mean that they basically set out to find the justification for what the government already wanted to do. Complete failure to distinguish between inputs and outputs of a model [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1485625862645075970
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Sir Karam Bales ✊ 🇺🇦. (2022, January 29). 1/🧵Some questionable stats, studies and statements over past 6 week Examples and evaluation First of all its worth looking at the impact some studies and articles have had in recent months https://t.co/o83T5fJW2N [Tweet]. @karamballes. https://twitter.com/karamballes/status/1487240863835119617
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the Institute of Medicine had released a landmark report on patientsafety, To Err Is Human. The report found that as many as 98,000 Americanswere dying each year as a result of preventable medical errors occurring inhospitals—more people than succumbed to car accidents, workplace injuries, orbreast cancer. And some significant portion of these deaths involved mistakes inthe dispensing of drugs.
Some might see the 98,000 preventable medical error deaths reported by the Institute of Medicine in To Err is Human (1999) now and laugh at the farcical number of deaths due to coronavirus since 2020, a large proportion of which could have been prevented due to better communication and coordination?
What if a more pragmatic anthropological viewpoint could be given to the current fractured state of American politics? If anthropologists are taught not to make value judgements on the way other cultures have come to live their lives, but simply to appreciate and report on them accurately, then perhaps we should leave those on the far right who believe in top down, patriarchal rule to their devices?
What if we nudged (forced) them all to actually live by their own rules by enforcing them to the nth degree? Republican politicians can only get away with badmouthing abortion or homophobic viewpoints because their feet are not held to the fire when those issues impinge upon their own families or even themselves. They have the wealth and the power to flout the laws and not face the direct consequences personally. Would their tunes change if forced by their own top down patriarchal perspectives applying to them?
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci. (2021, February 1). @MaartenvSmeden @richarddmorey 2/2 Having conducted experiments on lay understanding of arguments from ignorance, in my experience, people intuitively understand probabilistic impact of factors, such as quality of search, that moderate strength. Rather than build on that, we work against it with slogan! [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1356228495714746370
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci. (2021, February 1). @islaut1 @richarddmorey I think diff. Is that your first response seemed to indicate the evidence was the search itself (contra Richard) so turning an inference from absence of something into a kind of positive evidence ('the search’). Let’s call absence of evidence “not E”. 1/2 [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1356215051238191104
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci. (2021, February 2). @MichaelPaulEdw1 @islaut1 @ToddHorowitz3 @richarddmorey @MaartenvSmeden as I just said to @islaut1 if you want to force the logical contradiction you move away entirely from all of the interesting cases of inference from absence in everyday life, including the interesting statistical cases of, for example, null findings—So I think we now agree? [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1356530759016792064
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ReconfigBehSci. (2021, February 1). @islaut1 @richarddmorey I think of strength of inference resting on P(not E|not H) (for coronavirus case). Search determines the conditional probability (and by total probability of course prob of evidence) but it isn’t itself the evidence. So, was siding with R. against what I thought you meant ;-) [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1356216290847944706
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci. (2021, February 1). @MaartenvSmeden @richarddmorey you absolutely did (and I would have been disappointed if you hadn’t ;-)! It was a general comment prompted by the fact that the title of the article you linked to doesn’t (as is widespread), and I actually genuinely think this is part of the “problem” in pedagogical terms. 1/2 [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1356227423067664384
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Maarten van Smeden. (2021, February 1). Personal top 10 fallacies and paradoxes in statistics 1. Absence of evidence fallacy 2. Ecological fallacy 3. Stein’s paradox 4. Lord’s paradox 5. Simpson’s paradox 6. Berkson’s paradox 7. Prosecutors fallacy 8. Gambler’s fallacy 9. Lindsey’s paradox 10. Low birthweight paradox [Tweet]. @MaartenvSmeden. https://twitter.com/MaartenvSmeden/status/1356147552362639366
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci. (2021, February 2). @MichaelPaulEdw1 @islaut1 @ToddHorowitz3 @richarddmorey as this account is focussed on COVID, maybe time to move the discussion elsewhere- happy to discuss further if you want to get in touch by email—U.hahn" "https://t.co/HOGwHragEb [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1356529368630239232
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twitter.com twitter.com
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(6) ReconfigBehSci on Twitter: “@MichaelPaulEdw1 @islaut1 @ToddHorowitz3 @richarddmorey @MaartenvSmeden and not just misguided (as too simplistic) but part of the problem....” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved February 24, 2021, from https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1356528429211021319
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci. (2021, January 29). RT @IndependentSage: 3.7 million infected with #COVID19 in the UK. An estimated 5-10% will develop #LongCovid. We can’t afford to ignore th… [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1355097550529945607
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci on Twitter: ‘RT @JASPStats: How to obtain introductory texts using the Learn Bayes Module in JASP. #stats #openSource https://t.co/dn7jyFr59i’ / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved 6 March 2021, from https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1326512599903694848
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci. (2020, October 31). RT @learnfromerror: PHIL STAT FORUM NOVEMBER 19; STEPHEN SENN ‘Randomisation and Control in the Age of Coronavirus?’ https://t.co/hqT8GWTqC… [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1323311706609721344
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci. (2021, February 9). RT @ChristoPhraser: Our paper on evaluating the first three months of the NHS COVID-19 app is out now as a pre-print. A 🧵 1/n https://t.co/… [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1359132102927798275
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Youyang Gu. (2021, May 25). Is containing COVID-19 a requirement for preserving the economy? My analysis suggests: Probably not. In the US, there is no correlation between Covid deaths & changes in unemployment rates. However, blue states are much more likely to have higher increases in unemployment. 🧵 https://t.co/JrikBtawEb [Tweet]. @youyanggu. https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1397230156301930497
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci on Twitter: ‘RT @MaxCRoser: The latest COVID data from India. Https://t.co/LwjGo0xfMX https://t.co/vdH95hQ2gw https://t.co/moOKa1uKRr’ / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved 23 April 2021, from https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1380081666962636802
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci. (2021, May 17). RT @d_spiegel: Great Covid statistical musical video from Italy! Https://youtube.com/watch?v=glueeURebDU (A limited genre, to be true, but surely one tha… [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1394298791600148482
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Denise Dewald, MD 🗽. (2021, August 12). Here are some modeling predictions for the delta variant from COVSIM (group at North Carolina State): PLEASE CHECK THIS OUT - RESOURCES TO SHARE WITH YOUR SCHOOL DISTRICT School-level COVID-19 Modeling Results for North Carolina for #DeltaVariant https://t.co/zU5hB9bKlY [Tweet]. @denise_dewald. https://twitter.com/denise_dewald/status/1425626289399009288
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Haseltine, W. A. (n.d.). Birth Of The Omicron Family: BA.1, BA.2, BA.3. Each As Different As Alpha Is From Delta. Forbes. Retrieved 30 March 2022, from https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2022/01/26/birth-of-the-omicron-family-ba1-ba2-ba3-each-as-different-as-alpha-is-from-delta/
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Sebastian Rushworth M.D. (2021, January 25). This graph shows the share of the Swedish population testing positive to antibodies against covid week on week. The results are pretty startling. Https://t.co/rye4WImrvl [Tweet]. @sebrushworth. https://twitter.com/sebrushworth/status/1353775606274654208
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www.ons.gov.uk www.ons.gov.uk
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK: 29 October 2021, Office for National Statistics
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- positive
- COVID-19
- analysis
- lang:en
- is:webpage
- trend
- cases
- Office for National Statistics
- report
- testing
- UK
- graph
- percentage
- variant
- vaccine
- statistics
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www.core-econ.org www.core-econ.org
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A New York Times article uses the same temperature dataset you have been using to investigate the distribution of temperatures and temperature variability over time. Read through the article, paying close attention to the descriptions of the temperature distributions.
Unfortunately, like most NYT content, this article is behind a paywall. I'm partly reading this as I plan to develop a set of open education resources myself and the problem of how to manage dead/unavailable links looks like a key stumbling block.
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Tyler Black, MD. (2021, December 10). Statistics Canada has been asking kids about mental health during the pandemic. Initially, after the first 5 months (with school shutdowns, summer break, lots of restrictions), more kids said they were better than worse, most reported no change. 86% “No change or better” [/1] https://t.co/3shKtrxEVU [Tweet]. @tylerblack32. https://twitter.com/tylerblack32/status/1469380405451100162
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- Mar 2022
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Campbell, D., & editor, D. C. H. policy. (2022, March 10). Global Covid-19 death toll ‘may be three times higher than official figures.’ The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/10/global-covid-19-death-toll-may-be-three-times-higher-than-official-figures
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www.mobindustry.net www.mobindustry.net
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Retail technology market size
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en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
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In 1925, Ronald Fisher advanced the idea of statistical hypothesis testing, which he called "tests of significance", in his publication Statistical Methods for Research Workers.[28][29][30] Fisher suggested a probability of one in twenty (0.05) as a convenient cutoff level to reject the null hypothesis.[31] In a 1933 paper, Jerzy Neyman and Egon Pearson called this cutoff the significance level, which they named α {\displaystyle \alpha } . They recommended that α {\displaystyle \alpha } be set ahead of time, prior to any data collection.[31][32] Despite his initial suggestion of 0.05 as a significance level, Fisher did not intend this cutoff value to be fixed. In his 1956 publication Statistical Methods and Scientific Inference, he recommended that significance levels be set according to specific circumstances.[31]
The lofty p=0.5 is utter bullshit. It was just an arbitrary, made-up value with no real evidence behind it.
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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only 2.5 sigma
That's 99.38% chance of being correct, yet that's considered "weak". Would that we could do that in medicine or the social sciences.
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Trevor Bedford on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved 29 March 2022, from https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1466076761427304453
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci on Twitter: ‘RT @PeterHotez: I’m trying to reconcile Pfizer’s optimistic statements about 3rd dose protection against omicron https://t.co/mIWDowkDW6 v…’ / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved 29 March 2022, from https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1468568425308078088
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www.proquest.com www.proquest.com
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asthma
asthma = "How many people in Utah have asthma? 10.8% of Utah adults (18+) (around 250,949 adults), have current asthma" (https://health.utah.gov/asthma/data/#:~:text=How%20many%20people%20in%20Utah,adults)%2C%20have%20current%20asthma)
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obesity,
obesity = "More than one-fourth of all adults in Utah were obese in 2020 (29.4%, age-adjusted rate; 28.6%, crude rate)". (https://ibis.health.utah.gov/ibisph-view/indicator/complete_profile/Obe.html#:~:text=More%20than%20one%2Dfourth%20of,28.6%25%2C%20crude%20rate)
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diabetes
diabetes = "Approximately 186,706 people in Utah, or 8.0% of the adult population" (https://diabetes.org/sites/default/files/2021-11/ADV_2021_State_Fact_sheets_Utah_rev.pdf)
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- Feb 2022
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threadreaderapp.com threadreaderapp.com
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www.tmpl.fi www.tmpl.fi
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- Jan 2022
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www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
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Consider, as well, the extent to which the tools of abstraction are themselves tied up in the history of the trans-Atlantic slave trade. As the historian Jennifer L. Morgan notes in “Reckoning With Slavery: Gender, Kinship, and Capitalism in the Early Black Atlantic,” the fathers of modern demography, the 17th-century English writers and mathematicians William Petty and John Graunt, were “thinking through problems of population and mobility at precisely the moment when England had solidified its commitment to the slave trade.”Their questions were ones of statecraft: How could England increase its wealth? How could it handle its surplus population? And what would it do with “excessive populations that did not consume” in the formal market? Petty was concerned with Ireland — Britain’s first colony, of sorts — and the Irish. He thought that if they could be forcibly transferred to England, then they could, in Morgan’s words, become “something valuable because of their ability to augment the population and labor power of the English.”This conceptual breakthrough, Morgan told me in an interview, cannot be disentangled from the slave trade. The English, she said, “are learning to think about people as ‘abstractable.’
This deserves to be delved into more deeply. This sounds like a bizarre stop on the creation of institutional racism.
How do these sorts of abstraction hurt the move towards equality?
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www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
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Poland’s Jewish population numbered well over three million before the war. At the end of the war, some 380,000 Polish Jews had survived, most of whom had fled in 1939 into the former Soviet Union. By 1950, only about 45,000 Jews were left living in Poland.
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An over-reliance on numbers often leads to bias and discrimination.
By their nature, numbers can create an air of objectivity which doesn't really exist and may be hidden by the cultural context one is working within. Be careful not to create an over-reliance on numbers. Particularly in social and political situations this reliance on numbers and related statistics can create dramatically increased bias and discrimination. Numbers may create a part of the picture, but what is being left out or not measured? Do the numbers you have with respect to your area really tell the whole story?
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www.newyorker.com www.newyorker.com
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Nast, C. (2022, January 15). Do the Omicron Numbers Mean What We Think They Mean? The New Yorker. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/01/24/do-the-omicron-numbers-mean-what-we-think-they-mean
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robjhyndman.com robjhyndman.com
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high R2
Why we use cross-validation in the first place.
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scottaaronson.blog scottaaronson.blog
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assumes that there are default humans who serve as the standard
- it is not correct!
- only that measures are distributed around a mean
- how to interpret that?
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twitter.com twitter.com
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David Spiegelhalter. (2022, January 6). Good news: Admissions for flu not quite as tiny as last year, but close. Https://gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season https://t.co/YILvkQ4Vqu [Tweet]. @d_spiegel. https://twitter.com/d_spiegel/status/1479139047515856901
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- Dec 2021
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learn-us-east-1-prod-fleet01-xythos.content.blackboardcdn.com learn-us-east-1-prod-fleet01-xythos.content.blackboardcdn.com
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But ifall we’re doing is cherry-picking, we could just as easily have chosenthe much earlier burial known to archaeologists as Romito 2 (afterthe Calabrian rock-shelter where it was found). Let’s take a momentto consider what it would mean if we did this.
Keep in mind here that these are only singular examples they're talking about amongst millions of data points that we don't have.
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ReconfigBehSci. (2021, December 7). Given an estimate whereby the average person knows ca. 600 people, assuming 50% vaxxed, the average person would know 8 people who died of the vaccine. It is hard to believe numeracy is so low that people cannot see how crazy these “statistics” are... [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1468163579069280258
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Theo Sanderson. (2021, December 16). 71.9% of cases in London with specimens from 13 December were Omicron. Overall London cases are already reaching the maximum values ever seen in the pandemic. Https://t.co/CJF5kQqBpl [Tweet]. @theosanderson. https://twitter.com/theosanderson/status/1471537690650812420
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Covid: UK reports highest daily cases since the pandemic began. (2021, December 15). BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-59673150
Tags
- socialising
- COVID-19
- mask wearing
- modeling
- lang:en
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- hospitalization
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- mental health
- mask mandate
- guidance
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- UK
- booster
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Tom Moultrie. (2021, December 12). Given the comedic misinterpretation of the South African testing data offered by @BallouxFrancois (and many others!) last night ... I offer some tips having contributed to the analysis of the testing data for the @nicd_sa since April last year. (1/6) [Tweet]. @tomtom_m. https://twitter.com/tomtom_m/status/1469954015932915718
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Dave Keating. (2021, December 8). Boris Johnson’s continued pretence that UK is one of the most vaccinated countries in the world, repeated again in press conference just now announcing new restrictions, is getting tiresome. That has not been the case for many many months, despite 🇬🇧🇺🇸 vaccine hoarding early on. Https://t.co/tQt6aXGtNI [Tweet]. @DaveKeating. https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1468655107436802052
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Ober, T., Cheng, Y., Carter, M., & Liu, C. (2021). Disruptiveness of COVID-19: Differences in Course Engagement, Self-appraisal, and Learning. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/b2pxd
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- Nov 2021
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twitter.com twitter.com
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BNO Newsroom. (2021, November 26). South Africa reports 2,828 new coronavirus cases, an increase of 258% from last week, with a positivity rate of 9.1% [Tweet]. @BNODesk. https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1464280278197846025
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Spiegelhalter, D., & Masters, A. (2021, November 7). We can be confident there have been far more than 5 million global Covid deaths. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/commentisfree/2021/nov/07/we-can-be-confident-there-have-been-far-more-than-5-million-covid-deaths
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Sample, I., & editor, I. S. S. (2021, November 1). One in four 35- to 54-year-olds in England not complying with Covid self-isolation. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/01/one-in-four-35--to-54-year-olds-in-england-not-complying-with-covid-self-isolation
Tags
- COVID-19
- England
- mental health
- lang:en
- Summer
- statistics
- UK
- behavioral science
- self-isolation
- compliance
- data
- vaccine
- is:news
Annotators
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- Oct 2021
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www.dailymail.co.uk www.dailymail.co.uk
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UK’s daily Covid deaths hit SEVEN-MONTH high of 223 while cases jump 13% in a week to 43,738 | Daily Mail Online. (n.d.). Retrieved October 25, 2021, from https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10108203/UKs-daily-Covid-deaths-hit-SEVEN-MONTH-high-223-cases-jump-13-week-43-738.html
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Sparrow, A. (2021, October 21). UK Covid: Over 50,000 cases reported for first time since July as Johnson rejects calls to move to ‘plan B’ – as it happened. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/oct/21/uk-covid-coronavirus-live-news-plan-b-lockdown-vaccines
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blogs.bmj.com blogs.bmj.com
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Covid-19 vaccination in children, adolescents, and young adults: How can we ensure high vaccination uptake? - The BMJ. (n.d.). Retrieved October 14, 2021, from https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/10/14/covid-19-vaccination-in-children-adolescents-and-young-adults-how-can-we-ensure-high-vaccination-uptake
Tags
- COVID-19
- risk perception
- lang:en
- children
- statistics
- WHO
- young people
- vaccine hesitancy
- government
- hospitalization
- vaccination uptake
- health threat
- protection
- vaccine
- is:blog
- safety
- herd immunity
- UK
- mortality
- infection rate
- NHS
- anti-vaccine
- transmission
- public health authority
- side effects
- adolescence
Annotators
URL
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www.aappublications.org www.aappublications.org
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Study: Myocarditis risk 37 times higher for children with COVID-19 than uninfected peers | American Academy of Pediatrics. (n.d.). Retrieved October 10, 2021, from https://www.aappublications.org/news/2021/08/31/covid-myocarditis-risk-children-083121
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Dr Nisreen Alwan 🌻 on Twitter: “New @ONS #LongCovid estimates published today: 1.1 MILLION (1.7% of the whole UK population). Up from the summer estimate of 1.5%. 211,000 people with daily activities ‘limited a lot’. Greatest % in working age (35-69y). Rising prevalence in 17-24y. A tsunami of chronic illness.” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved October 10, 2021, from https://twitter.com/Dr2NisreenAlwan/status/1446110337753829379
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elemental.medium.com elemental.medium.com
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The Death Rate of Covid-19 in Developing Countries | by Gideon M-K; Health Nerd | Oct, 2021 | Elemental. (n.d.). Retrieved October 7, 2021, from https://elemental.medium.com/the-death-rate-of-covid-19-in-developing-countries-cc17a55c73cd
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www.bmj.com www.bmj.com
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Hippisley-Cox, J., Patone, M., Mei, X. W., Saatci, D., Dixon, S., Khunti, K., Zaccardi, F., Watkinson, P., Shankar-Hari, M., Doidge, J., Harrison, D. A., Griffin, S. J., Sheikh, A., & Coupland, C. A. C. (2021). Risk of thrombocytopenia and thromboembolism after covid-19 vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 positive testing: Self-controlled case series study. BMJ, n1931. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n1931
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- Sep 2021
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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The difficulties of estimating long Covid | David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters | The Guardian. (n.d.). Retrieved September 28, 2021, from https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/commentisfree/2021/sep/26/the-difficulties-of-estimating-long-covid
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statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
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This is an excellent example of just how convoluted and brain-numbing statistics can be if you really get into it - yet how vitally important it is to have excellent statisticians working on important problems like determining how exactly COVID is spreading.
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Iacobucci, G. (2021). Covid-19: How is vaccination affecting hospital admissions and deaths? BMJ, n2306. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n2306
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Sam Wang on Twitter: “These are risk levels that you pose to other people. They’re compared with you as—A nonsmoker—A sober driver—A vaccinated person. Unvaccinated? 5x as likely to get sick, for 3x as long. Total risk to others? 15x a vaccinated person Details:https://t.co/ckTWaivK8n https://t.co/PhpLvX2dsm” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved September 19, 2021, from https://twitter.com/SamWangPhD/status/1438361144759132167
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www.imperial.ac.uk www.imperial.ac.uk
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Global study estimates 1.5 million children have lost a caregiver from COVID-19 | Imperial News | Imperial College London. (n.d.). Retrieved September 14, 2021, from https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/226833/global-study-estimates-15-million-children/
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Axios-Ipsos poll: 60% voters back Biden COVID vaccine mandates—Axios. (n.d.). Retrieved September 14, 2021, from https://www.axios.com/axios-ipsos-poll-covid-vaccine-mandates-biden-c0b7af63-6de0-4ec2-82bf-fb85e3e021ea.html
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Nearly 300% more Covid patients in US hospitals at weekend than a year ago | US news | The Guardian. (n.d.). Retrieved September 8, 2021, from https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/sep/07/us-covid-patients-hospitals-surge
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twitter.com twitter.com
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David Dowdy on Twitter: “@NEJM joining the waning immunity debate. I’m going to push back a bit. Data from @UCSDHealth of vax effectiveness in health workers: 94% in June, 65% in July. Interpreted as ‘likely to be due to...delta and waning immunity over time, compounded by end of masking requirements.’ https://t.co/flDOfBbTs7” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved September 2, 2021, from https://twitter.com/davidwdowdy/status/1433254675915157504?s=20
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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Bracher, J., Wolffram, D., Deuschel, J., Görgen, K., Ketterer, J. L., Ullrich, A., Abbott, S., Barbarossa, M. V., Bertsimas, D., Bhatia, S., Bodych, M., Bosse, N. I., Burgard, J. P., Castro, L., Fairchild, G., Fuhrmann, J., Funk, S., Gogolewski, K., Gu, Q., … Xu, F. T. (2021). A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave. Nature Communications, 12(1), 5173. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25207-0
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Derek Thompson on Twitter: “um, https://t.co/bW1iItRtag” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved September 1, 2021, from https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1432708125971333125
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- Aug 2021
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Tim Plante, MD MHS on Twitter: “Just reported: About half of recent ICU patients with #Covid19 in #Vermont are vaccinated. Sounds like the vaccines aren’t working, right? WRONG. Vaccines are working and here’s why. But first, let’s talk a bit about unprotected sex. A thread. (Refs at the end.) 1/n https://t.co/iyQcfCDAfh” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved August 27, 2021, from https://twitter.com/tbplante/status/1430222978961317896
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Prof. Christina Pagel on Twitter: “THREAD latest on B.1.617.2 variant in England: B.1.617.2 (1st discovered in India) is now dominant in England. Here is a thread summarising latest PHE report and Sanger local data. TLDR: it is NOT good news. 1/7” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved August 24, 2021, from https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1399333330286415876
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twitter.com twitter.com
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(2) David Fisman on Twitter: “Here’s some really simple modeling that hopefully will help provide some insight into why having a large, unvaccinated minority in Ontario is a problem for the population as a whole.” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved August 23, 2021, from https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1427940663925092354
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medium.com medium.com
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Are 7 French fries too many?. A causal inference explainer | by Ellie Murray | Medium. (n.d.). Retrieved August 22, 2021, from https://medium.com/@EpiEllie/are-7-french-fries-too-many-d6226e78dc1f
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Vaccine resistance rooted in ideology, new survey shows: News: The Media School. (n.d.). Retrieved August 17, 2021, from https://mediaschool.indiana.edu/news-events/news/item.html?n=vaccine-resistance-rooted-in-ideology-new-survey-shows
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These Israeli COVID-19 graphs prove Pfizer vaccine works—Israel News—Haaretz.com. (n.d.). Retrieved August 17, 2021, from https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-covid-graphs-prove-vaccines-works-delta-pfizer-1.10101640
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Youyang Gu on Twitter: “People were worried cases would spike further when the UK lifted almost all remaining restrictions in July. The opposite happened. We must acknowledge that restrictions aren’t all that effective in Western countries. (Except Australia, who just entered their 6th lockdown) https://t.co/l7tygXQqn7” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved August 13, 2021, from https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1423415277765734402
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twitter.com twitter.com
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André Picard on Twitter: “Most of those numbers are in the column, which focuses on a) the risk of the Delta variant to children under 12 and b) the 29% of Canadians who are not fully vaccinated. Brace yourself for more COVID-19 nastiness https://t.co/V0agVYvKRx” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved August 13, 2021, from https://twitter.com/picardonhealth/status/1425316861176995840
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Feinberg, M. E. (2021). Family Foundations effects during a pandemic: 10 year follow-up [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/4jx9a
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www.quora.com www.quora.com
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Lucy D’Agostino McGowan. “I’ve Seen a Lot Today about How Effective the Vaccines Are; Mistakes aside, Lots of Folks Seem to Be Mixing up Which Denominators Matter - Good Thing Statisticians LOVE Denominators 🥰 1/6 Https://T.Co/ZAWpWs2gNK.” Tweet. @LucyStats (blog), July 20, 2021. https://twitter.com/LucyStats/status/1417275249318666243.
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www.newscientist.com www.newscientist.com
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Covid-19 news: Pregnant women in England urged to get vaccinated | New Scientist. (n.d.). Retrieved August 4, 2021, from https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-pregnant-women-in-england-urged-to-get-vaccinated/
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Sir Patrick Vallance on Twitter: “Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people.” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved August 4, 2021, from https://twitter.com/uksciencechief/status/1417204235356213252
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Benjy Renton on Twitter: “Over half of those who answered ‘wait and see’ to @KFF’s vaccine poll in January have now received the vaccine. So what changed their mind? - Seeing friends and family without side effects—Doctors and healthcare providers encouraging them https://t.co/iRxWp2BLTQ https://t.co/XStHV975Qt” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved August 2, 2021, from https://twitter.com/bhrenton/status/1415163661291819008?s=20
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twitter.com twitter.com
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John Thornhill on Twitter: “Good news: Vaccine hesitancy collapses Smart data analysis from @TheEconomist https://t.co/cQcajRtEM6 https://t.co/IWIbUsEFXG” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved August 1, 2021, from https://twitter.com/johnthornhillft/status/1418510295241269248
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- Jul 2021
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Why are fully vaccinated people testing positive for Covid? | Financial Times. (n.d.). Retrieved July 28, 2021, from https://www.ft.com/content/0f11b219-0f1b-420e-8188-6651d1e749ff
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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What is behind the latest fall in cases of Covid across the UK? | Coronavirus | The Guardian. (n.d.). Retrieved July 27, 2021, from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/26/what-is-behind-the-latest-fall-in-cases-of-covid-across-the-uk
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Romero, P., Mikiya, Y., Nakatsuma, T., Fitz, S., & Koch, T. (2021). Modelling Personality Change During Extreme Exogenous Conditions. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/rtmjw
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www.washingtonpost.com www.washingtonpost.com
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Why crowded meetings and conference rooms make you so, so tired—The Washington Post. (n.d.). Retrieved July 19, 2021, from https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/06/06/why-crowded-meetings-conference-rooms-make-you-so-so-tired/
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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Baker, N., & Mallapaty, S. (2021). Coronapod: Kids’ role in the future of COVID. Nature, d41586-021-01910–01912. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-01910-2
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www.frontiersin.org www.frontiersin.org
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Seong, E., Noh, G., Lee, K. H., Lee, J.-S., Kim, S., Seo, D. G., Yoo, J. H., Hwang, H., Choi, C.-H., Han, D. H., Hong, S.-B., & Kim, J.-W. (2021). Relationship of Social and Behavioral Characteristics to Suicidality in Community Adolescents With Self-Harm: Considering Contagion and Connection on Social Media. Frontiers in Psychology, 12, 691438. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.691438
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www.frontiersin.org www.frontiersin.org
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Iacob, C. I., Ionescu, D., Avram, E., & Cojocaru, D. (2021). COVID-19 Pandemic Worry and Vaccination Intention: The Mediating Role of the Health Belief Model Components. Frontiers in Psychology, 12, 674018. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.674018
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twitter.com twitter.com
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(((Howard Forman))) on Twitter: “Cases represented similarly. Https://t.co/hBYBP78dRG” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved July 15, 2021, from https://twitter.com/thehowie/status/1415301861842763778
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twitter.com twitter.comTwitter1
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Adam Kucharski on Twitter: “As Delta spreads, cases starting to rise again across Europe... Https://t.co/mwyFVlUPVY” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved July 12, 2021, from https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1412498377619673095
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library.scholarcy.com library.scholarcy.com
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UNAIDS Data Dashboard https://kpatlas.unaids.org/dashboard
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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Mallapaty, S. (2021). Will COVID become a disease of the young? Nature, d41586-021-01862–01867. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-01862-7
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Delta variant said to be far more widespread than federal estimates—POLITICO. (n.d.). Retrieved July 8, 2021, from https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/08/delta-coronavirus-variant-widespread-498787?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
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- Jun 2021
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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Castro, M. C., Gurzenda, S., Turra, C. M., Kim, S., Andrasfay, T., & Goldman, N. (2021). Reduction in life expectancy in Brazil after COVID-19. Nature Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-021-01437-z
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Helen McArdle on Twitter: “The good news: An astonishing 98.2% of over-60s in Scotland are now fully vaccinated. That’s an amazing uptake. It doesn’t mean they are 100% protected of course (and especially not when case rates are high) but their risk of hospitalisation/death is cut by over 90% https://t.co/DzAxkpLvcR” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved June 30, 2021, from https://twitter.com/HMcArdleHT/status/1409821893557768195
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twitter.com twitter.com
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RichardBrown on Twitter: “@Richard_Florida Still pretty slow recovery in London too @nicolegelinas. Https://t.co/nH9FOpV386” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved June 29, 2021, from https://twitter.com/MinorPlaces/status/1407018950714605574
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Telegraph suggests 9% of England dies each year—Full Fact. (n.d.). Retrieved June 29, 2021, from https://fullfact.org/health/telegraph-suggests-9-england-dies-each-year/
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Jeremy Faust MD MS (ER physician) on Twitter: “Number of Covid cases among children in US: >4 million. Number of Covid deaths in US children: 300-400. Number of kids vaccinated: 7 million. Number of kids who died from vaccine-related myocarditis: Zero. #vaccinate @bhrenton @RickABright @angie_rasmussen @celinegounder” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved June 28, 2021, from https://twitter.com/jeremyfaust/status/1408880589319647243?s=20
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Jeffrey Ely on Twitter: “The base-rate fallacy is about to become a daily nuisance when it comes to processing outbreak data in highly vaccinated societies. Here’s a cautionary tale.” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved June 28, 2021, from https://twitter.com/Jeffely/status/1408500890999328770
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stm.sciencemag.org stm.sciencemag.org
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Knock, E. S., Whittles, L. K., Lees, J. A., Perez-Guzman, P. N., Verity, R., FitzJohn, R. G., Gaythorpe, K. A. M., Imai, N., Hinsley, W., Okell, L. C., Rosello, A., Kantas, N., Walters, C. E., Bhatia, S., Watson, O. J., Whittaker, C., Cattarino, L., Boonyasiri, A., Djaafara, B. A., … Baguelin, M. (2021). Key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions in the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England. Science Translational Medicine, eabg4262. https://doi.org/10.1126/scitranslmed.abg4262
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arxiv.org arxiv.org
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Persoon, P. G. J. (2021). Cumulative structure and path length in networks of knowledge. ArXiv:2106.10480 [Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2106.10480
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Long Covid: Snapshot poll finds more than 1m people with symptoms in UK | Long Covid | The Guardian. (n.d.). Retrieved June 26, 2021, from https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/apr/01/long-covid-snapshot-poll-finds-million-people-symptoms-uk?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
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arxiv.org arxiv.org
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Reis, E. F. dos, & Masuda, N. (2021). Metapopulation models imply non-Poissonian statistics of interevent times. ArXiv:2106.10348 [Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2106.10348
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3M State of Science Index | How People Feel About Science (US). (n.d.). Retrieved 18 June 2021, from https://www.3m.com/3M/en_US/state-of-science-index-survey/
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Burton, J. W., Cruz, N., & Hahn, U. (2021). Reconsidering evidence of moral contagion in online social networks. Nature Human Behaviour. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01133-5
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- May 2021
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Young people demand vaccination requirements for reopening—Axios. (n.d.). Retrieved May 29, 2021, from https://www.axios.com/vaccination-work-school-reopening-poll-7e8c2e4e-54b4-4831-8e51-146f13a26ca3.html
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www.eventbrite.com www.eventbrite.com
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Data Collection and Integration to Enhance Public Health Registration, Thu, Jun 10, 2021 at 1:00 PM | Eventbrite. (n.d.). Retrieved May 28, 2021, from https://www.eventbrite.com/e/data-collection-and-integration-to-enhance-public-health-registration-156146370999
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replicationindex.com replicationindex.com
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2020 has shown that Ioannidis’s claim does not apply to all areas of science. In amazing speed, bio-tech companies were able to make not just one but several successful vaccine’s with high effectiveness. Clearly some sciences are making real progress. On the other hand, other areas of science suggest that Ioannidis’s claims were accurate. For example, the whole literature on single-gene variations as predictors of human behavior has produced mostly false claims. Social psychology has a replication crisis where only 25% of published results could be replicated (OSC, 2015)
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arxiv.org arxiv.org
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Mizutaka, S., Mori, K., & Hasegawa, T. (2021). Synergistic epidemic spreading in correlated networks. ArXiv:2105.08992 [Physics, q-Bio]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2105.08992
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journals.plos.org journals.plos.org
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Thematic analysis was used to explore the qualitative data captured in the online survey. [22,23] describe thematic analysis as a method that seeks to find patterns, or categories, that emerge from the data, enabling the researcher to organise and provide detailed description.
This seems like an interesting area to look into further.
Two cited sources here:
- Butler-Kisber L. Butler-Kisber L. (2010). Qualitative inquiry: Thematic, narrative and arts-informed perspectives. London: Sage. 2010. https://doi.org/10.1123/apaq.27.3.226 pmid:20571157
- Braun V, Clarke V. Using thematic analysis in psychology. Qualitative Research in Psychology. 2006;3(2):77–101. pmid:32100154 https://doi.org/10.1191/1478088706qp063oa
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All statistical comparisons were therefore performed using non-parametric methods, to avoid introducing errors based on assumptions of normality in the data. Repeated measures comparisons were performed using the Friedman test, except where specified, with post-hoc pairwise comparisons made using the Friedman-Nemenyi test. Although no direct measure of effect size for the Friedman test is generally recognized, an indirect measure of effect size was obtained using the Kendall’s W-statistic (KW), computed from the Friedman Q value [19,20]. Effect sizes were interpreted as follows: weak: KW< 0.19; moderate 0.20< KW< 0.39; strong 0.4< KW.
Delve into these techniques.
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Brains On! (2021, May 3). What does 95% effective mean for a vaccine? We head to a stadium to learn! Warning: There are seagulls overhead! (Big thanks to @mariasundaram for help with this video!) Learn more about the #vaccines find family-friendly #coronavirus explainers at https://t.co/Zo9nORLEdI https://t.co/erPYnoKuZC [Tweet]. @Brains_On. https://twitter.com/Brains_On/status/1389293681669152769
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Reproduction number (R) and growth rate: Methodology—GOV.UK. (n.d.). Retrieved May 13, 2021, from https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/reproduction-number-r-and-growth-rate-methodology/reproduction-number-r-and-growth-rate-methodology
Tags
- COVID-19
- England
- modeling
- healthcare
- lang:en
- methodology
- UK
- reproduction number
- government
- is:webpage
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- statistics
Annotators
URL
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www.learnbayesstats.com www.learnbayesstats.com
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The ‘Learning Bayesian Statistics’ podcast. (n.d.). Retrieved 13 May 2021, from https://www.learnbayesstats.com
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wintoncentre.maths.cam.ac.uk wintoncentre.maths.cam.ac.uk
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Winton Centre Cambridge. (n.d.). Retrieved May 12, 2021, from https://wintoncentre.maths.cam.ac.uk/news/latest-data-mhra-blood-clots-associated-astra-zeneca-covid-19-vaccine/
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osf.io osf.io
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Adjiwanou, V., Alam, N., Alkema, L., Asiki, G., Bawah, A., Béguy, D., Cetorelli, V., Dube, A., Feehan, D., Fisker, A. B., Gage, A., Garcia, J., Gerland, P., Guillot, M., Gupta, A., Haider, M. M., Helleringer, S., Jasseh, M., Kabudula, C., … You, D. (2020). Measuring excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in low- and lower-middle income countries: The need for mobile phone surveys [Preprint]. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/4bu3q
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