https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military%E2%80%93industrial_complex

( ~ 6:25-end )

Steps for designing a reading plan/list: 1. Pick a topic/goal (or question you want to answer) & how long you want to take to achieve this. 2. Do research into the books necessary to achieve this goal. Meta-learning, scope out the subject. The number of books is relative to the goal and length of the goal. 3. Find the books using different tools such as Google & GoodReads & YouTube Recommendations (ChatGPT & Gemini are also useful). 4. Refine the book list (go through reviews, etc., in Adlerian steps, do an Inspectional Read of everything... Find out if it's truly useful). Also order them into a useful sequence for the syntopical reading project. Highlight the topics covered, how difficult they are, relevancy, etc. 5. Order the books (or download them)

Reminds me a bit of Scott Young's Metalearning step, and doing a skill decomposition in van Merriënboer et al.'s 10 Steps to Complex Learning

( ~ 5:00 )

The first stage of learning a complex skill is creating relevance, not in the sense of making knowledge relevant to your life; but rather in seeing what is relevant to learn at this point in the learning career.

Building a map...

The actions are exploration and challenge. Exploration = getting diverse opinions from others and learning the theory & variables. Challenge = open-mindedness for other beliefs and assumptions.

Reminds me of 10 Steps to Complex Learning for curriculum design, where doing a skill decomposition is one of the first steps in designing the curriculum, and either being an expert or having access to experts is paramount.

for - social tipping point - 2023 paper - paper details

paper details - title: The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to majority - author - Jordan Everall - Jonathan. F Donges - Ilona. M. Otto - Preprint date - 20 Nov 2023 - Publication - EGUsphere Preprint Repository

summary - This is a recent 2023 paper that summarizes social tipping point research for fields of interest to me, such as climate change. - I'm reading, looking for any real world experimental validation of social tipping point in climate change - I didn't find any but still interesting

from - search - google - research on complex contagion refutes the 25% social tipping point threshold - https://www.google.com/search?q=research+on+complex+contagion+refutes+the+25%25+social+tipping+point+threshold&oq=research+on+complex+contagion+refutes+the+25%25+social+tipping+point+threshold&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIGCAEQRRhA0gEJMjAyOTRqMGo3qAIAsAIA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8 - search results returned of interest - The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to ... - https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2241/

for - question - Entangled Worlds podcast - How do we cultivate intuition for complex systems - to access those higher order effects? - answer - Nora Bateson - practice everywhere

The main idea, able to be generalized, I get from this video is that in order to develop any skill, whether it is learning or something else, you need to break it down into its constituents, much like the 4 Component Instruction Design model argues, and figure out where your weak links are.

The more accurately you know the system of your skill, the better you know what to potentially improve on. This requires research, and sometimes asking experts.

Another benefit of networking.

for - problem with gene therapy - Very little association between genes and disease - very complex associations

from - Big Think article - Dan Carlin on humanity’s uncontrollable “Prometheus complex” - https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbigthink.com%2Fthinking%2Fdan-carlin-on-humanitys-uncontrollable-prometheus-complex%2F&group=world

for - progress trap - Prometheus complex - adjacency - progress trap - Prometheus complex - Gaston Bachelard - Gaston Bachelard - French philosopher

adjacency - between - progress trap - Prometheus complex - Gaston Bachelard - adjacency statement - Prometheus complex and progress traps have much in common: - both look at the shadow side of innovation - The mythology of Icarus geting too close the sun is one common to both - Bachelard wrote a pith work on the analysis of the element of fire, in which he introduced the concept of the Prometheus complex - https://philpapers.org/rec/OSEPCA

for - quote - Prometheus complex - progress trap

quote - Prometheus complex - progress trap - (see below)

• Our hands and our brains will,
  • perhaps unconsciously
• drift towad the very thing we're debating if we should do
• author - Jenny Thomson

for - quote - Prometheus complex - progress trap

quote - Prometheus complex - progress trap - (see below)

• As the rational, intellectual part of ourselves wrestles with the decision,
  • a deeper Promethean part of ourselves has pressed it (the red button) already
• author - Jenny Thomson

for - progress trap - Prometheus complex - Dan Carlin - Gaston Bachelard - philosopher

summary - This short article brings up an interesting connection between - the Prometheus complex, - a term coined by the French philosopher Gaston Bachelard and - progress traps, - the unintended consequences of progress - The key insight is that human beings may have an Achilles Heel - the desire to know, even at the cost of harm - could be such a powerful impulsive urge - that we throw caution to the wind and - Icarus mythology may be a self-fulfilling prophecy - This also echos the views of my colleague Gyuri Lajos, - that invention for invention sake possesses this very dark side. - This is an important adjacency - as it questions the ethics of knowledge for knowledge sake - As we know from - the history of - progress and its shadowy counterpart, - the progress trap - our impulsive urge to invent has harmful impacts on everyone, - and these continually compound with time

for - impulsive urge - invention - adjacency - progress trap - impulsive urge to invent - Prometheus complex - Gyuri Lajos perspective

Adjacency - between - progress trap - impulsive urge - Gyuri Lajos perspective - Prometheus complex - adjacency statement - It would seem that the the Prometheus complex - is an apt description of that which Gyuri objects to in innovation, namely - innovation for innovation sake - in other words, the impulsive urge merely to know - even if it brings a terrible price

for - definition - Prometheus complex

definition - Prometheus complex - All those tendencies which impel us to know - as much as our fathers, more than our fathers - as much as our teachers, more than our teachers - author - Gaston Bachelard

for - quote - Dan Carlin - quote - progress trap - Prometheus complex - Dan Carlin

quote - progress trap - Prometheus complex - (see below)

• [I wonder] whether or not human society actually has the agency that we think we have
  • to not invent something if we think it might be bad.
• If you look down the technological road in the distance and see something horrible, could humankind go,
  • ‘Oh, you know what? We’re just not going to go there.’
• I’m not sure we have that agency.

comment - Deep Humanity praxis proposes that a new discipline of Progress traps is what is needed to do exactly this - Give us a meta perspective so that we can assess future harm and damage as - AN ACTIONABLE FORESIGHT, not a - TREATABLE HINDSIGHT

One of my inquiries was for anecdotes regarding mistakes made between the twins by their near relatives. The replies are numerous, but not very varied in character. When the twins are children, they are usually distinguished by ribbons tied round the wrist or neck; nevertheless the one is sometimes fed, physicked, and whipped by mistake for the other, and the description of these little domestic catastrophes was usually given by the mother, in a phraseology that is some- [p. 158] what touching by reason of its seriousness.

Other people are the mirror in witch we see ourselves. Individual judge himself in the light of what he percives to be the way in wich others judge him in comparison to thenselves.

for left-to-right sliders - complex reasons

“We’re seeing people turn right for a number of different reasons,” - argues journalist Eoin Higgins, - author of a forthcoming book on formerly left-wing journalists - who’ve aligned with reactionary tech billionaires. ​

• “There are
  • financial incentives, there are
  • attention incentives, there are
  • culture war differences as people are becoming more conservative on culture; there’s
  • a sense of being betrayed by progressives and the Left.
• There are so many different reasons that
• reducing this to people
  • going too far [left] and
  • going to the Right
• is an oversimplification.

• for: example - systems thinking, quote -: many people are complex systems thinkers

• quote:

  • many people are complex systems thinkers even though they don't know it
• Thomas Homer-Dixon

• date: 2023

• examples: complex systems clichés

  • the whole of greater than the sum of its parts
    • nonlinearities
  • the straw that broke the camels back
    • emergence

• comment

  • the first one could be that systems are not the same as just all the parts
  • the second one could also represent Tipping points and nonlinearities of complex systems

08:00 his sword technique was adaptable, mendable, consistent with the complex nature of reality, that changes constantly, not resisting change but adapting self to it

• see zk on how a more dynamic approach to productivity and systems can help us reflect reality more closely, ever changing

Unconscious as nature (“mother”) for Jung — awfulness of humanity, repressed, for Freud

• for: social tipping point, STP, TPF, social norms, complex contagion, lowering threshold
• policy changes can lower tipping point thresholds

• for: social tipping point, STP, tipping point, social norm, complex contagion
• study findings
  • Two factors can help hasten beneficial change
    • common understanding of the benefits from change due to:
      • events that attract attention
      • opinion polls that aggregate information
      • finding an angle on an issue that appeals to a broad demographics
    • perserverence
      • leaders who persevere even at great cost

• for: social tipping point, STP
• title
  • Creating Change: How to Make Big Things Happen
• guest
  • Damon Centola
• description
  • a very clear exposition of how complex contagion works and what must be done to spread complex behavior change
• comment
  • this is particularly important for rapid whole system change and mobilizing a bottom-up movement to deal with our current polycrisis

• Persecution complex
  • One of the most widely and deeply spread memes, and corresponding behavior within Evangelical Christians is a persecution complex
  • This is a attitude of righteousness and feeling attacked for holding their righteous views
  • This meme and accompanying behavior appeals to base emotion of fear to shut down intelligent conversation
  • It makes them impervious to constructive criticism

• Persecution complex
  • One of the most widely and deeply spread memes, and corresponding behavior within Evangelical Christians is a persecution complex
  • This is a attitude of righteousness and feeling attacked for holding their righteous views
  • This meme and accompanying behavior appeals to base emotion of fear to shut down intelligent conversation
  • It makes them impervious to constructive criticism

Definition - generator function of existential risk - the deeper driving cause of existential risk - two examples of deep causes - rivalrous dynamics - complicated systems consuming their complex substrate

Claim - Alexander Beiner claims that - the generator function of these generator functions is physicalism

Structures and Transformations of the Vocabulary of the Egyptian Language: Text and Knowledge Culture in Ancient Egypt. “Altägyptisches Wörterbuch: Berlin-Brandenburgische Akademie der Wissenschaften 1999,” 2007. https://web.archive.org/web/20180627163317/https://aaew.bbaw.de/wbhome/Broschuere/index.html.

Google translation:

The sheer quantity exceeds the possibilities of book publication, the complex, multidimensional structure of a networked information base cannot be reproduced in print, and finally the dynamic of a constantly growing and constantly correcting material does not fit into the rigid rhythm of book production, in which each expanded and corrected new edition is associated with an incalculable amount of effort. A book publication could only offer a snapshot of such a database, reduced to a specific perspective. This too can be very useful from time to time, but it does not solve the problem of publishing the entire material.

While the writing criticism of "dumping out one's zettelkasten" into a paper, journal article, chapter, book, etc. has been reasonably frequent in the 20th century, often as a means of attempting to create a linear book-bound context in a local neighborhood of ideas, are there other more complex networks of ideas which we're not communicating because they don't neatly fit into linear narrative forms? Is it possible that there is a non-linear form(s) based on network theory in which more complex ideas ought to better be embedded for understanding?

Some of Niklas Luhmann's writing may show some of this complexity and local or even regional circularity, but perhaps it's a necessary means of communication to get these ideas across as they can't be placed into linear forms.

One can analogize this to Lie groups and algebras in which our reading and thinking experiences are limited only to local regions which appear on smaller scales to be Euclidean, when, in fact, looking at larger portions of the region become dramatically non-Euclidean. How are we to appropriately relate these more complex ideas?

What are the second and third order effects of this phenomenon?

An example of this sort of non-linear examination can be seen in attempting to translate the complexity inherent in the Wb (Wörterbuch der ägyptischen Sprache) into a simple, linear dictionary of the Egyptian language. While the simplicity can be handy on one level, the complexity of transforming the entirety of the complexity of the network of potential meanings is tremendously difficult.

link to https://hypothes.is/a/U95jEs0eEe20EUesAtKcuA

Is this phenomenon of "complex narratives" related to misinformation spread within the larger and more complex social network/online network? At small, local scales, people know how to handle data and information which is locally contextualized for them. On larger internet-scale communication social platforms this sort of contextualization breaks down.

For a lack of a better word for this, let's temporarily refer to it as "complex narratives" to get a handle on it.

• comment
• Derek Black is an example
• of what it takes to undo deeply culturally conditioned misinformation
• these variables have to be present for that to work
  • open mind
  • patience
  • accurate information
  • a caring, patient, informed community
• Derek Black offers a lesson of what is required to depolarize society using social tipping points
• there needs to be scalable education program to reach still open-minded individuals holding opposing views
• to openly and respectfully debate difficult, polarizing issues
• in order to form the wide bridges necessary for social tipping points of complex issues

| physics/mathematics | Classical Physics | Quantum Mechanics |<br /> |---|---|---|<br /> | State Space | fields satisfying equations of laws<br>- the state is given by a point in the space | vector in a complex vector space with a Hermitian inner product (wavefunctions) |<br /> | Observables | functions of fields<br>- usually differential equations with real-valued solutions | self-adjoint linear operators on the state space<br>- some confusion may result when operators don't commute; there are usually no simple (real-valued) numerical solutions |

• rather than hard-wiring innate knowledge of complex social skills, nature outsources = complex social skills - like:
  • language
  • empathy
  • morality
  • theory of mind
• to parents

• 25% social tipping point threshold is adjustable
• depending on the variables of the context
• = question - how do we apply this adjustability for complex contagion such as climate change norms?

• = complex contagion
  • example: climate change norms

A term recommended by Eve regarding an interdisciplinary approach that accounts for multiple feedback loops within complex systems. Need to confer complex systems science to see if ADHD is already addressed in that domain.

ie, "well-defined problems" in John Vervaeke's language. Cultivation of wisdom, per Vervaeke, is developing the capacity to navigate a ill-defined problem space, and realize (ie, recognize, and make real) what is relevant to resolving the situation.

Examples of ill-defined problems: - how to take good notes? - how to tell a funny joke? - how to go on a successful 1st date? - how to be a good friend?

May relate to Shapiro's "role theory". Needs further research

!- in other words : there should be signs of complex intelligence like ours in the paleontological records

!- For : microbiome health - fasting for 14 hours helps the migrating motor complex (MMC) maintain gut health

I am going to add some optional 'reading and doing' directions to my posts. Might be helpful.

1. You might listen to the poem first.
2. You might answer the question that Trethewey asks first. Maybe you can engage in the margins with it.
3. You can make all or part of your responses public or private.
4. You can start a group to consider the question.
5. You can have at it in the order presented: my intro--> Twitter thread--> my response to the thread-->check out the link-->listen to the poem.
6. Perch in the margins with the withered wild grapes and the black haw and the redbuds.
7. Join in the work of forecasting your own life.

This is worthwhile for all of us who share complex topics with others and want to get better at that.

Example of writing advice that builds the links in after-the-fact instead of cross-linking ideas into initial networks as they're finding them. Compare/contrast this to the creation of these networks in the zettelkasten tradition as well as Sönke Ahrens description.

There's less upfront work in creating these links at the start than there is in reloading the context in one's brain to create these links after the fact. Collecting ideas without filing, linking, or organizing them upfront also means that one is more likely to only use these ideas in the context of specific projects which one already has in mind rather than keeping them for a lifetime's work which might also create generative projects one hadn't expected.

https://thinkzone.wlonk.com/Numbers/NumberSets.htm

A relatively clear explanation of the types of numbers and their properties.

I particularly like this diagram:

A presented meaning can in many cases be attributed to these rational numbers, which at first appear as pure signs,

How we define the rules of purely formal operations (Verknüpfungen), i.e., of carrying out operations (Operationen) with mental objects, is our arbitrary choice, except that one essential condition must be adhered to: namely that no logical contradiction may be implied in these same rules.

one adds an inverse in thought to the given series of objects

one cannot see how a real substance can be understood by -3... and would be within his rights if he refers to -3 as a non-real, imaginary number, as a "false" one.

A different definition of the concept of the formal numbers cannot be given; every other definition must rely on ideas from intuition or experience, which stand in only an accidental relation to the concept, and the limitations of which place insurmountable obstacles in the way of a general investigation of the arithmetic operations.

The condition for the establishment of a general arithmetic is therefore a purely intellectual mathematics detached from all intuition, a pure theory of form, in which quanta or their images, the numbers, are not combined, but rather intellectual objects, thought-things, to which presented objects or relations of such objects can, but need not, correspond.

As the development of mathematical concepts and ideas generally goes historically through two opposed phases, so goes also that of the imaginary numbers. At first this concept appeared as a paradox, strictly inadmissible, impossible;

however, in the course of time, the essential services which it affords to science subdue all doubts of its legitimacy, and one is convinced in such decisiveness of its inner truth and necessity, that the difficulties and contradictions which one noticed in it at the beginning are hardly felt. Today, the question of imaginary numbers is in this second stage; --- however it needs no proof that the actual nature of concepts and ideas is only sufficiently clarified when one can distinguish what is necessary in them, and what is arbitrary, i.e., is put to a certain purpose in them.

Chambon, M., Kammeraad, W., Harreveld, F. van, Dalege, J., Elberse, J., & Maas, H. van der. (2022). Why COVID-19 vaccination intention is so hard to change: A longitudinal study. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/b9qrj

As I mentioned in a previous comment, I find it interesting to filter a discount or differentiated value by a larger target.

Liu, C., Yang, Y., Chen, B., Cui, T., Shang, F., & Li, R. (2022). Revealing spatio-temporal interaction patterns behind complex cities. ArXiv:2201.02117 [Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2201.02117

Reframing loss as gain is one strategy worth exploring for behavior change. Also explore social tipping points of complex contagion.

Climate change requires large investment in behavior change. It is a case of complex contagion, not simple contagion. Wide bridges are the key to bringing about social tipping points of complex contagion.

multi-scalar governance complex (Levinson et al.,<br> 2020; Tröhler, 2020).

multi-scalar governance complex

community is more likely to make large-scale change than a single voice.

This seems like an unreasonably high stoichiometry of Arp2/3 complexes per actin subunit; we now know that each Arp2/3 complex covers a few subunits, so there shouldn't be enough room on the filament to fit 1:1 Arp2/3 complex/actin

Lagnado, D. A. (2022). Explaining the evidence: How the mind investigates the world. Cambridge University Press.

Murphy, C., Laurence, E., & Allard, A. (2021). Deep learning of contagion dynamics on complex networks. Nature Communications, 12(1), 4720. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24732-2

Ghavasieh, A., Nicolini, C., & De Domenico, M. (2020). Statistical physics of complex information dynamics. Physical Review E, 102(5), 052304. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.102.052304

Ingale, M., & Shekatkar, S. M. (2020). Resource dependency and survivability in complex networks. Physical Review E, 102(6), 062304. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.102.062304

Zhong, L., Diagne, M., Wang, W., & Gao, J. (2021). Country distancing increase reveals the effectiveness of travel restrictions in stopping COVID-19 transmission. Communications Physics, 4(1), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1038/s42005-021-00620-5

Time in the US, Arriving in the United States, Living Situation

Chambon, Monique, Jonas Dalege, Lourens Waldorp, Han van der Maas, Denny Borsboom, and Frenk van Harreveld. ‘A Complex Systems Perspective on Compliance with Behavioral Measures during the COVID-19 Pandemic in the Netherlands: How Psychological Networks Can Inform Interventions.’ PsyArXiv, 31 March 2021. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/fmu9w.

Wang, Xiangrong, Alejandro Tejedor, Yi Wang, and Yamir Moreno. ‘Unique Superdiffusion Induced by Directionality in Multiplex Networks’. ArXiv:2011.00991 [Physics], 2 November 2020. http://arxiv.org/abs/2011.00991.

Pennycook, Gordon. ‘How the COVID-19 Crisis Exposes Widespread Climate Change Hypocrisy’. CBC, 22 May 2020. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/opinion-climate-change-should-believe-dont-understand-1.5482416.

Aminpour, P., Gray, S. A., Singer, A., Scyphers, S. B., Jetter, A. J., Jordan, R., Murphy, R., & Grabowski, J. H. (2021). The diversity bonus in pooling local knowledge about complex problems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(5). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2016887118

The sheer number of interacting variables that you'd need to track makes it impossible to make any accurate predictions.

Grözinger. N., Irlenbusch ., B., Laske. K., Schröder., M (2020) Innovation and Communication Media in Virtual Teams – An Experimental Study. Institute of Labor Economics. https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/dp13218/

Edward J. Alessi, P. D., Courtney Hutchison, L. M., & Sarilee Kahn, P. D. (2020). Understanding COVID-19 through a complex trauma lens: Implications for effective psychosocial responses. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/8kmqb

This is the part of the enzyme where the substrate binds. The substrate enters the active site to form an enzyme-substrate complex.

This is the process of breaking down complex substances within a living organism into smaller ones. This process also releases energy unlike anabolism.

Ghavasieh, A., Nicolini, C., & De Domenico, M. (2020). Statistical physics of complex information dynamics. ArXiv:2010.04014 [Cond-Mat, Physics:Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2010.04014

Burda, Z., Kotwica, M., & Malarz, K. (2020). Ageing of complex networks. Physical Review E, 102(4), 042302. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.102.042302

Perez, I. A., Di Muro, M. A., La Rocca, C. E., & Braunstein, L. A. (2020). Disease spreading with social distancing: A prevention strategy in disordered multiplex networks. Physical Review E, 102(2), 022310. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.102.022310

Mishra, V., & Dexter, J. P. (2020). Comparison of Readability of Official Public Health Information About COVID-19 on Websites of International Agencies and the Governments of 15 Countries. JAMA Network Open, 3(8), e2018033–e2018033. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.18033

Young, J.-G., Cantwell, G. T., & Newman, M. E. J. (2020). Robust Bayesian inference of network structure from unreliable data. ArXiv:2008.03334 [Physics, Stat]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2008.03334

Grözinger. N., Irlenbusch. B., Laske. K., Schröder. M., (2020). Innovation and Communication Media in Virtual Teams – An Experimental Study. Institute of Labor Economics. Retrieved from: https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/innovation-and-communication-media-in-virtual-teams-an-experimental-study/

Clausen, T. M., Sandoval, D. R., Spliid, C. B., Pihl, J., Painter, C. D., Thacker, B. E., Glass, C. A., Narayanan, A., Majowicz, S. A., Zhang, Y., Torres, J. L., Golden, G. J., Porell, R., Garretson, A. F., Laubach, L., Feldman, J., Yin, X., Pu, Y., Hauser, B., … Esko, J. D. (2020). SARS-CoV-2 Infection Depends on Cellular Heparan Sulfate and ACE2. BioRxiv, 2020.07.14.201616. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.14.201616

West, D. K. & G. (2020, July 8). The Damage We’re Not Attending To. Nautilus. http://nautil.us/issue/87/risk/the-damage-were-not-attending-to

Scaffolding teaching? Providing those hints that are mentioned earlier in the article?

Chambon, M., Dalege, J., Elberse, J., & van Harreveld, F. (2020). A psychological network approach to factors related to preventive behaviors during pandemics: A European COVID-19 study [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/es45v

Gauri, V. (2020 April 30). Behavioral Public Policy Faces a Crisis. Behavioral Scientist. https://behavioralscientist.org/behavioral-public-policy-faces-a-crisis/

Murphy, C., Laurence, E., & Allard, A. (2020). Deep learning of stochastic contagion dynamics on complex networks. ArXiv:2006.05410 [Cond-Mat, Physics:Physics, Stat]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2006.05410

Marshall, B. D. L., & Galea, S. (2015). Formalizing the Role of Agent-Based Modeling in Causal Inference and Epidemiology. American Journal of Epidemiology, 181(2), 92–99. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwu274

Jazayeri, A., & Yang, C. C. (2020). Motif Discovery Algorithms in Static and Temporal Networks: A Survey. ArXiv:2005.09721 [Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2005.09721