The MHRA urgently seeks an Artificial Intelligence (AI) software tool to process the expected high volume of Covid-19 vaccine Adverse Drug Reaction (ADRs) and ensure that no details from the ADRs’ reaction text are missed.
Is this expectation higher than for other coronavirus vaccines? MHRA: Medicines & Healthcare products Regulatory Agency
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Sapir. A. (2020) European Union economies so differently? Policy contribution. Retrieved from: https://www.bruegel.org/2020/09/why-has-covid-19-hit-different-european-union-economies-so-differently/?utm_content=buffer5fc94&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
What our silenced population was not thinking about during the fearful spring of 2020 was the fact that alleged insidious, non-disprovable “abilities to harm” have been used as political tools for centuries.
Fear as a political tool.
the government made a bald, difficult-to-disprove assertion — “Together, we can stop death” — and built-in a dissent-silencing mechanism: “We are trying to save lives, so anyone who disagrees with us is a killer.”
Classic us against them. No winners in this scenario.
In the COVID debate, there is a mainstream, “popular” narrative, and a competing, “unpopular” narrative — a “fringe.” The former exploits the common, mediocre desire to be “popular.”
Is it simply a desire to be popular?
Achakulwisut, P. (n.d.). The U.S. Risks Locking In a Climate Health Crisis in Response to COVID. Scientific American. Retrieved December 10, 2020, from https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-u-s-risks-locking-in-a-climate-health-crisis-in-response-to-covid/
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Ledford, H. (2020). Oxford COVID-vaccine paper highlights lingering unknowns about results. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-03504-w
Three quarters of Brazilian Amazon have been infected with COVID-19 since March | Imperial News | Imperial College London. (n.d.). Imperial News. Retrieved December 10, 2020, from https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/210273/76-brazilian-amazon-have-been-infected/
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Karl Friston and Anthony Costello: What we have learned from the second covid-19 surge? (2020, December 8). The BMJ. https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/12/08/karl-friston-and-anthony-costello-what-we-have-learned-from-the-second-covid-19-surge/
Serhan, Y. (2020, December 8). Vaccine Nationalism Is Doomed to Fail. The Atlantic. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/12/vaccine-nationalism-doomed-fail/617323/
A Marm Kilpatrick. (2020, December 8). FDA Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine efficacy results are great, but aren’t nearly as great as presented for severe infections. Everyone has seen fig below on cases in vaccine (blue) & placebo (red) over time. Thread. Https://t.co/vlZyZgJ7hr https://t.co/9ZWeWCko1x [Tweet]. @DiseaseEcology. https://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1336446195284070400
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NHS told not to give Covid vaccine to those with history of allergic reactions. (2020, December 9). The Guardian. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/09/pfizer-covid-vaccine-nhs-extreme-allergy-sufferers-regulators-reaction
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editor, P. B. S. policy. (2020, December 9). Covid-driven recession likely to push 2m UK families into poverty. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/dec/09/covid-driven-recession-likely-to-push-2m-uk-families-into-poverty
Bae et al.(2020) Asymptomatic Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 on Evacuation Flight. Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Retrieved from: https://ncrc.jhsph.edu/research/asymptomatic-transmission-of-sars-cov-2-on-evacuation-flight/
Sisson, N. M., Willroth, E. C., Le, B. M., & Ford, B. Q. (2020, December 1). The Mental Health Effects of Living with Close Others Before, During, and After the Onset of COVID-19. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/v9mc4
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Cameron, E. E., Joyce, K. M., Rollins, K., & Roos, L. E. (2020, November 29). Paternal Depression & Anxiety During the COVID-19 Pandemic. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/drs9u
Bialobrzeska, O., Baba, J., Bedyńska, S., Cichocka, A., Cislak, A., Formanowicz, M., … Kozakiewicz, K. (2020, November 29). Keep kind and carry on. Everyday kindness enhances well-being and prosocial behavior in the time of COVID-19. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/n2g3m
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The testing data represents data reported to IDPH through Electronic Laboratory Reporting (ELR) only. It is based on the date results are reported into the ELR. It excludes testing data that are received from sites that have not implemented ELR. This excludes 3-5% of test data. Weekly test positivity = [County positive tests for 7 days] / [County total tests for same 7 days] x 100 Minimal: Test positivity is <5% Moderate: Test positivity is >5% and <8% Substantial
We've been above 8% for months. I wonder how much the mandatory random testing at NIU is lowering that rate, too.
A new study that found traces of coronavirus in US blood samples from December last year is adding to the growing evidence that the virus was circulating for months before China announced its existence, casting more shadows over the truth about the pandemic and fuelling suspicions of a cover-up by Beijing.
We know nothing about covid.
As immunity builds in the population, the risk of infection to all – including the vulnerable – falls. We know that all populations will eventually reach herd immunity – i.e. the point at which the rate of new infections is stable – and that this can be assisted by (but is not dependent upon) a vaccine. Our goal should therefore be to minimize mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity.
In case anyone is wondering vaccines provide herd immunity.
Adopting measures to protect the vulnerable should be the central aim of public health responses to COVID-19.
Public health departments world wide are failing.
Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden.
The cure is worse than the disease.
My COVID coping strategy is stats. They are my feeble way of trying to control, or at least comprehend, the uncontrollable. If you follow me on Twitter, you know this. I cannot shut up about the numbers.
My same strategy
Długosz, P. (2020). Factors influencing mental health among American youth in the time of the Covid-19 pandemic. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/8npyc
Moderna’s COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate Meets its Primary Efficacy Endpoint in the First Interim Analysis of the Phase 3 COVE Study | Moderna, Inc. (n.d.). Retrieved 1 December 2020, from https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/modernas-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-meets-its-primary-efficacy/
Wiwad, D., Mercier, B., Piff, P. K., Shariff, A., & Aknin, L. (2020). Recognizing the Impact of Covid-19 on the Poor Alters Attitudes Towards Poverty and Inequality. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/geyt4
Długosz, P., & Kryvachuk, L. (2020). Neurotic generation of Covid-19 in Eastern Europe. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/mwhzk
Kanero, J., & Aktan-Erciyes, A. (2020). Family and language development during COVID-19: The case of Turkey. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/n7k8z
People undergoing centralized quarantine have higher levels of anxiety. Unexpectedly, longer durations of quarantine did not lead to a significant increase in anxiety level.
these trials are intended to pass the lowest possible barrier of success. As this is being written, the FDA is poised to announce tougher standards for a Covid-19 vaccine in the near future. It is my hope that these new standards for an EUA will at a minimum include requirements for protections from infection itself, protections from severe virus-related disease leading to hospitalization, and a significant improvement in Covid-19 related mortality.
all the pharmaceutical companies assume that the vaccine will never prevent infection. Their criteria for approval is the difference in symptoms
These trials all clearly focus on eliminating symptoms of Covid-19, and not infections themselves. Asymptomatic infection is listed as a secondary objective in these trials when they should be of critical importance.
Vaccine efficacy is typically proved by large clinical trials over several years. The pharmaceutical companies intend to do trials ranging from thirty thousand to sixty thousand participants. This scale of study would be sufficient for testing vaccine efficacy. The first surprise found upon a closer reading of the protocols reveals that each study intends to complete interim and primary analyses that at most include 164 participants.
Three of the vaccine protocols—Moderna, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca—do not require that their vaccine prevent serious disease only that they prevent moderate symptoms which may be as mild as cough, or headache.
confirming that these high Ct values are mostly correlated with low viral loads
This is to be noted too
It can be observed that at Ct = 25, up to 70% of patients remain positive in culture and that at Ct = 30 this value drops to 20%. At Ct = 35, the value we used to report a positive result for PCR, <3% of cultures are positive.
Main observation
Marmet, S., Wicki, M., Gmel, G., Gachoud, C., Daeppen, J.-B., Bertholet, N., & Studer, J. (2020). The psychological impact of the COVID-19 crisis on young Swiss men participating in a cohort study. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/kwxhd
Nogrady, B. (2020). What the data say about asymptomatic COVID infections. Nature, 587(7835), 534–535. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-03141-3
Charoenwong, B., Kwan, A., & Pursiainen, V. (2020). Social connections with COVID-19–affected areas increase compliance with mobility restrictions. Science Advances, 6(47), eabc3054. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abc3054
Edward J. Alessi, P. D., Courtney Hutchison, L. M., & Sarilee Kahn, P. D. (2020). Understanding COVID-19 through a complex trauma lens: Implications for effective psychosocial responses. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/8kmqb
Bulbulia, J. A., Piven, S., Greaves, L., Osborne, D., Troughton, G., Yogeeswaran, K., & Sibley, C. G. (2020). Longitudinal Study of Pandemic and Natural Disaster Distress. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/erfhp
Mulukom, V. van, Pummerer, L., Alper, S., Bai, (Max) Hui, Cavojova, V., Farias, J. E. M., Kay, C. S., Lazarevic, L., Lobato, E. J. C., Marinthe, G., Banai, I. P., Šrol, J., & Zezelj, I. (2020). Antecedents and consequences of COVID-19 conspiracy theories: A rapid review of the evidence. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/u8yah
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CohenNov. 16, J., 2020, & Am, 7:00. (2020, November 16). ‘Just beautiful’: Another COVID-19 vaccine, from newcomer Moderna, succeeds in large-scale trial. Science | AAAS. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/11/just-beautiful-another-covid-19-vaccine-newcomer-moderna-succeeds-large-scale-trial
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Generally it takes a week or two after a person has been infected before they start to produce IgG, and with covid, you’re generally only infectious for about a week after you start to have symptoms, so antibody tests are not designed to find active infections. Instead the purpose is to see if you have had an infection in the past.
It takes a week or two for an infected person to start producing the antibody IgG which is the type of antibody that typically gets tested for.
[[Z: Antibody tests are only useful to see if you had an infection in the past]]
In most clinical settings (including the one I work in), all the doctor is provided with is a positive or negative result. No mention is made of the number of cycles used to produce the positive result.
[[Z: The number of PCR cycles has not been standardized, and is usually not even mentioned to the doctor]]
If you get a positive PCR test and you want to be sure that what you’re finding is a true positive, then you have to perform a viral culture. What this means is that you take the sample, add it to respiratory cells in a petri dish, and see if you can get those cells to start producing new virus particles. If they do, then you know you have a true positive result. For this reason, viral culture is considered the “gold standard” method for diagnosis of viral infections. However, this method is rarely used in clinical practice, which means that in reality, a diagnosis is often made based entirely on the PCR test.
[[Z: A positive PCR should be followed by a viral culture test to see if you're dealing with a live infection]]
After a positive PCR test, you don't know if the virus is alive or not. To find this out you can add it to respiratory cells (in the case of a respiratory virus) and see if they start producing virus particles).
[[Z: Viral culture tests are rarely used in clinical practice]]
Positive diagnoses of COVID-19 are done base on PCR only.
One thing that’s important to understand at this point is that PCR is only detecting sequences of the viral genome, it is not able to detect whole viral particles, so it is not able to tell you whether what you are finding is live virus, or just non-infectious fragments of viral genome.
PCR only tells you if you're detecting sequences of the viral genome. It doesn't tell you that what you're finding is live virus or not.
“Let’s say a trial is listed and I have to cross examine a witness,” he said. “Now, what is the guarantee that the witness would be willing to go all the way to the court in such a time?” If witnesses do not appear, then the matter would merely be adjourned.
access to justice
Weibelzahl, S., Reiter, J., & Duden, G. (2020). Pandemic-Induced Depression and Anxiety in Healthcare Professionals. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/5rehd
3. They're fighting misinformation.
Agree or disagree with how they obtained info and what that means for digital rights; how much the Chinese government informed or not their people - this is what China did in terms of alerting their population of covid cases.
I don’t think that what we are seeing is a “second wave”. I think we are seeing a seasonal effect. It’s important to keep some perspective. As I explained earlier in this article, cases are a very poor way to determine how active the virus is in the population. In Sweden, the number of tests being carried out is now eight times higher than in the spring. That is why we should instead be looking at hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths.
Sebastian Rushworth MD. believes that what we're seeing in Sweden is not a second wave, but simply the seasonal effects of COVID.
I think it’ll probably be a few years before we know the full extent to which people were harmed by this. As an example, the hospital in Uppsala experienced 50% fewer admissions due to cardiac infarctions (“heart attacks”) during the peak period, while the hospitals in Stockholm experienced 40% fewer admissions. We know that people who have a cardiac infarction and don’t get emergency treatment have a significantly increased risk of dying in the immediate future, and also have a greater risk of developing long term complications such as heart failure.
A hospital in Uppsala saw 50% fewer cases of heart attacks during the peak COVID-19 period. The author posits that people might have been avoiding the emergency room out of fear or out of consideration. This might lead to more deaths later, however, as not getting treatment after a heart attack leads to higher chances of developing long-term complications.
The Swedish Public Health authority has never admitted that the goal of their chosen strategy is to reach herd immunity. However, from an epidemiological stand point, all strategies depend on reaching herd immunity in one way or another. A vaccination based strategy also builds on getting to herd immunity, it just chooses a different way to reach it. At some point in the relatively near future, every country on Earth will have developed herd immunity to covid, either by letting the disease spread until that point is reached, or by vaccinating enough people to reach that point.
All pandemic strategies end up reaching herd immunity.
October 29
There's been some question about whether or not the executive session that led to Lutz's ouster was born of a regular meeting, and thus subject to the requirement that 'the presiding officer of a governing body shall publicly announce the purpose for excluding the public from the meeting place' (RCW 42.30.110(2)).
The Internet Archive's snapshots of https://srhd.org/programs-and-services/board-of-health/meetings on
contain references to, respectively, the regular meetings of
(For that matter, the next meeting is currently listed as a regular meeting.)
While no snapshots were taken between 2020-09-25 and 2020-10-28, it seems that, indeed, Thursday's meeting was initially public.
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