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Take away: Mass infection without vaccination to achieve herd immunity will result in millions of deaths based on the observed death rate and may not result in herd immunity due to virus mutation. Historically, vaccination results in less deaths than the disease.

The claim: Herd immunity from widespread disease instead of vaccination will lead to many people dying.

The evidence: Approximately 50-67% of a given population is estimated to need to be infected for herd immunity to COVID-19 to exist which will result in millions of deaths. This is supported by additional publications (1, 2). This number assumes that the virus will not mutate to the point where re-infection is possible. If mutation occurs, COVID could become established in the general population similar to influenza or the common cold (3). A third publication estimates a needed infected percentage of 29-74% (4). These publications support the statement that millions will die if herd immunity is achieved via infection without vaccination. Historically, vaccination results in fewer deaths/disease on a population level than the disease for which the vaccine is designed to prevent (5-7).

Sources:

1 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7314002/

2 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7262166/pdf/JMV-9999-na.pdf

3 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7164482/

4 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/A1480DAE803D4CD4A3E9F79B82309584/S1935789320001913a.pdf/covid19_reflections.pdf

5 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28708957/

6 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29668817/

7 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/12531323/

• Short-term treatments like a massage, or just resting for a bit, reduce stress by boosting the parasympathetic nervous system (PNS).
• Relaxation therapies show promise as a way to treat stress, but so far scientists haven’t developed a standardised method to test them - until now.
• This study is the first standardised approach, and the results show that both rest and a massage increase heart rate variability (HRV) - higher HRV = greater relaxation.
• Researchers say this shows we don’t need professional treatment in order to relax, even a 10-minute rest can boost our PNS and calm us down.
• These conclusions will enable further experiments to study how different relaxation methods can help people with stress-related conditions like depression

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Take away: People are infectious for only part of the time they test positive. The tests for COVID-19 were granted emergency status by the FDA so some debate concerning the most ideal number of cycles is to be expected. It is worth noting that the FDA has the disclaimer "Negative results do not preclude 2019-nCoV infection and should not be used as the sole basis for treatment or other patient management decisions. Negative results must be combined with clinical observations, patient history, and epidemiological information (2)."

The claim: Up to 90 percent of people diagnosed with coronavirus may not be carrying enough of it to infect anyone else

The evidence: Per Walsh et al. (1), SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID-19) is most likely infectious if the number of PCR cycles is <24 and the symptom onset to test is <8 days. RT-PCR detects the RNA, not the infectious virus. Therefore, setting the cycle threshold at 37-40 cycles will most likely result in detecting some samples with virus which is not infectious. As the PCR tests were granted emergency use by the FDA (samples include 2-9), it is not surprising that some debate exists currently about where the cycle threshold should be. Thresholds need to be set and validated for dozens of PCR tests currently in use. If identifying only infectious individuals is the goal, a lower cycle number may be justified. If detection of as many cases as possible to get closer to the most accurate death rate is the goal, setting the cycle threshold at 37-40 makes sense. A lower threshold will result in fewer COVID-19 positive samples being identified. It is worth noting that the emergency use approval granted by the FDA includes the disclaimer that a negative test does not guarantee that a person is not infected with COVID-19. RNA degrades easily. If samples are not kept cold or properly processed, the virus can degrade and result in a false negative result.

Source: 1 https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa638/5842165

2 https://www.fda.gov/media/134922/download

3 https://www.fda.gov/media/138150/download

4 https://www.fda.gov/media/137120/download

5 https://www.fda.gov/media/136231/download

6 https://www.fda.gov/media/136472/download

7 https://www.fda.gov/media/139279/download

8 https://www.fda.gov/media/136314/download

9 https://www.fda.gov/media/140776/download

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